Iran war: Trump is playing into Putin's hands.

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1:02Love the way you look. The New Statesman. Vladimir Putin expressed deep condolences to the people Ivoran over the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by U.S. and Israeli forces. The Russian president, currently leading his own brutal and illegal war in Ukraine, condemned what he called Khamenei's assassination as a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law. Russia and Iran are long-term strategic partners. They signed a new treaty in January last year, but while Putin offers consoling words to Iran, the Kremlin will undoubtedly have eyes on the potential benefits to them of a U.S. Israel war on Russia's ally. So, is Trump's war in Iran playing into Russia's hands? I'm Anu Shikhelian and this is Daily Politics from the New Statesman. At Global Affairs Editor Katie Stallard joins me down the line from Washington, DC. Hi Katie. Hi Anu. Thanks so much for joining us. Explain to us a little bit about the relationship between

2:05Russia and Iran because we often talk about them as allies, but how straightforward is that really? So they're not allies in the sense that I think most people would understand the meaning of that. And as we're seeing now, there is no mutual defense treaty. There is really no question that Russia is going to fight on Iran's behalf. Their own term is strategic partners. And they, as you mentioned there, signed a 20-year treaty to that effect last year, deepening their cooperation. But I think the best way to think of it is a sort of pragmatic alignment that is, you know, far from totally, they don't agree on anything or on everything rather. I think the connective tissue that you see is shared opposition to a US-dominated international order and increasingly, particularly since the start of Russia's war on Ukraine, mutual desire to navigate around sanctions. So it's cooperation in terms of, you know, some aspects of defense technology,

3:10economics, finance, some degree of intelligence, cooperation, help with technology. But this is not, you know, a meeting of the minds. This is not the relationship between Russia and China, Putin and Xi. Right. And so there wasn't any special personal relationship between Putin and Khamenei. I mean, they've met, I think, several times, but, you know, I don't think there was any particular love lost between these two men. And Putin really doesn't have those kind of relationship. So he is famously not a sentimental man. And I think his relationship with Khamenei was, you know, in the context of his leadership role as somebody he would work with. I think he would be equally content, perhaps more so, to work with, you know, a senior general or a new Supreme Leader. It's more strategic than anything, you know, particularly personal and individual and heartfelt between the two leaders. It's interesting because he offered his condolences and he expressed anger

4:14at his death, what he called it, assassination. And the statement is just sort of full of this language of indignation about international law. But it's quite ironic to him talking about international war in that way. And I just wonder how much of his response to this is couched in the context in which he finds himself, you know, in terms of the ongoing war in Ukraine, sort of a never-ending war. I think there's a couple of aspects to that to unpack. The first is, you know, by all accounts, he is genuinely affected by these decapitation strikes on senior leadership. He has supposed to have been very deeply shocked and to have repeatedly watched the footage of Moama Gaddafi being killed at the hands of Libyan rebels during that operation. He is very worried, perhaps reasonably, about the prospect of an assassination attempt against himself. And I think this only further underlines, then, you know, you were seeing, for instance, Russian experts talking over the last 24 hours about Russia's nuclear arsenal, you know, reminding

5:17outside powers of the resources that Russia has to defend itself. And, you know, all of the reasons this cannot and should never be allowed to happen in Russia. So I think this underlines the sense that he has long had that this is the type of thing the United States and its allies are capable of. And therefore, the type of thing he needs to defend against. Yes, it's extraordinarily hypocritical and disingenuous to be condemning the attack on Iran at a time when Russia is mounting continuous aerial bombardment of Ukraine and where, you know, there was very credible reporting that Russia attempted to assassinate Volodymyr Zelensky and the early hours of that war. And so it's disingenuous, it's hypocritical, but I think one of the ways in which this helps Putin is it allows him to say, look, you know, who are you to criticize me? Look at what you were doing right now. You know, you can expect them to make absolutely massive propaganda, hey, out of,

6:17you know, any strikes that kill Iranian civilians, this really helps his argument that he, you know, his war is not exceptional. He is not doing something that is, you know, in itself. An egregious violation of international law that this is just how the world works. And so he will see this as a way to, and the Russian diplomats are already doing this at the UN to dilute criticism of his war by pointing to the example of the US and Israel. And beyond rhetoric, how does this war benefit Russia in terms of sort of depleting the US military stockpile surges in oil prices, all sorts of things that strategically could be helpful for Putin? What do you think? I see this as short-term, tactical gain, longer-term risk. Right. So in the short-term, you know, just in the immediate term, one of Russia's most immediate problems right now is the economy. It is under very serious strain. We're already seeing economic forecasts for this year being

7:18downgraded, real concerns on the Russian side about how they finance that war. So that is helped massively in the short term if they could have, say, a month of very high oil prices. You know, all of that money really helps balance a Russian budget. That is at the moment, you know, looking quite strained. So that helps him. It helps him in terms of the war in Ukraine if air defenses, if interceptors are having to go to Israel, to other US allies, to other parts of the Middle East. Those are all resources that are under strain and those are all resources that cannot go to Ukraine. And I think we're seeing a major part of the new strategy or the evolving strategy in Ukraine is to demoralize, to destroy, to degrade the rest of the country with these aerial strikes. So everything that is going to the Middle East are resources that cannot go to defend Ukraine. It's more complicated than that, arguably already. A lot of those resources

8:18were not going to be going to Ukraine, but from Putin's perspective, that really helps him. And then just there is the diverting of attention and focus. You know, the United States is involved in a major war in the Middle East. So the amount of bandwidth, both diplomatic, executive, congressional, otherwise, that is available to look at Ukraine and to focus on, you know, I think it's pretty clear, Putin doesn't want to come to a ceasefire or a peace deal in the short term. But the prospect of railroading him into that and exerting, you know, serious sustained pressure to bring that war to an end, that is going to be very seriously undermined by what is now happening in the Middle East. So all of those are ways that benefit Putin and Russia in the short term. I think a longer term, strategic risk here though is we just don't know in what form, you know, it may well be an iteration of the current regime, in which case nothing changes.

9:20But if a new, a fundamentally different Iran emerges from this conflict that turns away from Russia, that would be, that would be a real blow, that would be a real loss of leverage, positioning, influence for Russia in the Middle East. You know, further undermining this claim that Russia is still a great power. So there is some risk there. It's not all upside. But I think Russia will take the, you know, the tactical gains in the short term. That's really interesting. Thanks so much. So those are the potential benefits to Russia and the long-term view as well. We'll just take a break here after which we'll talk a bit more about the risks a war in Iran poses to Russia and their allies. Remember, you can listen to Daily Politics Add Free by downloading the New Statesman app. It's available on iOS and Android. The links are in the show notes. We've launched a new podcast called The Exchange, long form interviews with leading thinkers from politics, philosophy and the arts. Our latest episode is with the legendary artist and activist Ai Wei Wei. Here's a clip. How would you characterize your work now? Is it less political?

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11:30Welcome back. I'm Anou Shikalyan and I'm still here with Katie Salad. Um, Katie, you mentioned before the break the sort of long-term potential risks to Russia, uh, of this war. And I wonder about the impact on the wider alliance. Where does China sit in all of this? Well, China, it's probably the opposite calculation in terms of, you know, very serious short-term pain and potential, uh, longer term strategic gains. I mean, China gets almost an eighth of its oil. I think about 14% of its oil from Iran. China's economy is already in the doldrums. The last thing they needed was oil price shock. So this will be very unwelcome there. China also has a lot of investment in various infrastructure projects across the Middle East. So this all endangers that China tends to sit on the sidelines of these sorts of conflicts. So you're seeing

12:31the escalation in terms of the remarks from the foreign ministry. Over the last 24 hours, I think we've gone from highly concerned to deeply condemning the actions and calls for, you know, return to stability and, uh, negotiated outcome. You know, China has kind of created this dilemma for itself by wanting to be more involved in the Middle East and inserting itself to some extent. But then, you know, in times of crisis, it does tend to step back. It doesn't tend to view itself as the kind of power that could intervene and mediate. So, you know, there were short-term impacts on China, which are pretty harmful for its economy. The longer-term benefit, though, is this does help the Chinese argument, which again is, you know, you can say it's hypocritical and somewhat disingenuous. But China tries to present itself as this force for stability in

13:34the global order. It is increasingly trying to draw the contrast with the United States and saying, you know, we are predictable long-term partner, you know, in brackets that also, you know, periodically weaponizes trade and believes its regional partners. And it's capable, but all sorts of disruptive actions of its own. But this does help that argument. So this it undermines the United States global standing and China will try to benefit from that. It also, you know, again, it's a distraction away from, you know, she is very, very focused. Xi Jinping is very, very focused on Taiwan, on modernizing his own military, on increasing his own military capabilities. You have just seen this very serious raft of purges in the senior military staff there. Xi Jinping has his eyes on that. He is focused on that every day, every week, every month, the United States is doing something else that it's fighting, you know, but could turn out to be quite a protracted

14:36conflict in the Middle East and sending its resources there, you know, is just further away from this ever-promised, never quite realized pivot to Asia and focusing on, you know, what many senior defense officials here see as a very real, very clear and, you know, increasingly imminent threat to Taiwan. So, you know, that again is a long-term potential benefit from China, but, you know, they definitely, they did not want this kind of disruption at a time when the economy is already, you know, somewhat, somewhat struggling. It's really interesting because China's looking towards Taiwan, as you say, Russia's involved in its own war. How likely is it given, sort of, the focus of each of these countries that you've just been laying out for us, of seeing them support Iran militarily in their response to the bombing? I think it's extremely unlikely that there will be any, you know, over weapons transfers, direct military support. I think they will both want to stay out of this. And partly, it also is a case

15:38of capabilities. I mean, Russia, you know, is struggling forward in Ukraine, but does not have the capacity to intervene elsewhere. And China, like I say, is really, really focused on its own region and particularly on Taiwan, so would have no desire to get involved in a conflict in the Middle East, but will, you know, economic consequences and concerns aside, you know, would not be averse to the US choosing to, you know, get, get back involved in a very, in a very long war there. And I think this, you know, periodically, you hear here in Washington, these arguments that there's the potential to do a reverse Nixon or a reverse Kissinger and draw Russia and China apart from each other. This type of event is proof for both of those systems why they need each other. So for China, with supplies of oil from Iran, potentially now in jeopardy, it's just even more proof of why they need the relationship with Russia, you know,

16:43reputational damage and, you know, tensions and friction that come with that relationship. Ultimately, it's a secure source of energy that cannot be interdited by the United States and its allies. And it's also further evidence for both of them. You know, they both believe that we have always lived in this kind of might makes right law of the jungle type of world and to achieve security. It's hard para that matters. And so you need to be dominant in your region. I think this just adds further fuel to that fire and underlines that argument, you know, they have always thought that the United States only very selectively followed international law and they have always thought it's better to take security into your own hands. So I think there's just will further underline for both of them that despite, you know, for Russia, it's absolutely, you know, really punishing the economy. It's really jeopardizing the future of that country

17:44as would a Chinese assault on Taiwan. But I think these are leaders who are thinking in terms of their place in history and how they secure the futures of their countries and they are, this is just going to make them even more determined to follow through and, you know, really emerges the dominant powers in their own region. I think this also turbocharges the general rush for nuclear proliferation. Like I think if you're Kim Jong-un watching this, you really think I made the right decision a decade ago and you know, like there's a reason the United States is not currently waging a war against North Korea. So I think you're going to see other powers rush for at least have very serious discussions about rushing for the bomb. It's really interesting. We need to take another short break here, Katie's day with us and we'll be talking more about how this could shape the whole global order after the break. Subscribe to the New Statesman today and get your first five weeks for only five pounds. Go to NewStatesman.com forward slash five weeks. Hello, I'm Anu Shikelian and I'm still here with Katie Stallard.

18:48What do Trump's actions signal to Putin? I mean, Trump was elected on the promise of stopping military intervention in other countries, you know, he was president peace, but now he's doing exactly that. What should Putin take from that change? I think one of the important lessons to draw from this, which Xi Jinping will draw too, is you know, it seems a lifetime ago now, but if you remember back to Trump's first term, you know, there were people who thought he was quite instinctively isolationist and that he would be very reticent to use American military force in the way that his predecessors had done. And, you know, then returning to power last year and within new national security strategy here, again, there were questions about, you know, okay, so he's not an isolationist, but maybe he is in favor of a kind of spheres of influence type division of the world, which, you know, Xi Jinping can have his region, Putin can have his region, the United States can focus on the Western, Western hemisphere, you know, I think this really shows absolutely

19:50conclusively, you know, that is not the case. Donald Trump is not content with merely focusing on the Western hemisphere and does feel empowered to intervene, you know, wherever he sees the case to do so. So I think the message that, you know, I don't think that will be a surprise to Putin and Xi. I think they may be surprised by the degree of risk he is undertaking here, the kind of military actions we've seen before have been much more limited and sort of, you know, sure, sharp, spectacular uses of force that are targeted against an individual or a group of individual, and it's, and it's over quickly. I'm not sure there are briefers will have had in mind that he would embark on a, you know, this, this degree of conflict with really no clear sense of how long it might go on and what the end game is. So perhaps they will be revising the extent to which they had judged his risk tolerance, but I think again, this just, you know, they're always,

20:58they have always had the view that whichever American president is in power at any given moment and whatever they say, that can all change, you know, nuclear agreements, bilateral deals, it can all change every four years, sometimes more often than that. So that's why it makes more sense to, you know, for Russia and China to align with each other and to see that as a, you know, a significant commitment that extends into the future than to risk, you know, their own security, their own regimes on a deal with the United States, which might turn out to be very fickle and might be torn up, you know, two and a half years from now. Yeah, it might be torn up by the same president who made those deals or a change in government in the US. Yeah, and, and with the US tied up with this war with Iran and, you know, we've spoken about how that potentially benefits Russia in the short term and China in the long term, depending on what happens, you know, we don't know what the endgame is, we don't know, we don't know what direction Iran will go in. What does

22:01this mean for Europe and also Britain's role in the world? We have a lot of listeners who are very interested in what all of this means for British politics. From where you're sitting Katie, what do you think it means for Europe and Britain? I think it's a very, very difficult situation. You know, when we've seen in the last 24 hours of British basin Cyprus come under attack, French position has also been targeted. European powers are being brought into this conflict, whether they like it or not. And the very difficult and perfect decision that they know have to make is whether to, you know, overtly join the US Israeli effort. But in which case, you know, we were, we all remember what happened during the invasion of Iraq. Do you want to trust your own political future to standing alongside Donald Trump? You know, is it clear to you what he is attempting to achieve here that there is a clear theory of victory and that this does not risk, you know,

23:06your own militaries lives. You know, are you prepared to put British, French, European lives on the line to join the US in this conflict? And you know, there's no good answer to that. There's been a lot of talk in Europe about strategic autonomy, but they need to be able to defend the continent from within the continent. I think, you know, this should turbocharge that argument that, you know, the days of being able to treat the United States as a stable, reliable security guarantor are over at least for the next two and a half years. And who honestly knows what comes after that? So I think this should be, you know, there's been so many wake up calls on this. But, you know, there can be no more snoozing of that particular alarm. You know, it really is time to think beyond being able to depend on the United States. Yeah. And of course, you have those sort of very political sensitivities here as well, Katie,

24:08with a Labour government haunted more than any other party by the memory of what happened with Iraq and the sensitivities of, you know, showing too much warmth towards Donald Trump is very unpopular in the UK. You know, the strategy on how to cope with Trump is very divided within the Labour Party and the wider political spectrum as well. It's really interesting. We'll see it. We'll see how this plays out in the days ahead and we'll be back on the podcast with more. Katie, thank you so much. And all of your writing is brilliant on this. And I really urge our listeners and viewers to go and catch up with it. It's all online on the New Statesman website. And you can head to newstatesman.com forward slash five weeks to subscribe with a special discount. You've been listening to daily politics from the New Statesman with me, Anu Shikelian and my colleague Katie Stallard. This episode was produced by Christo. The podcast will be back tomorrow.

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