Iran war puts further strain on US-EU relations

0:00From reports of a leak to Pentagon emails suggesting Spain should be kicked out of NATO to Donald Trump's constant berating of European nations for not joining the Iran War, European leaders are conducting a delicate dance at the moment with the Trump administration. Even the Italian Prime Minister, Georgia Maloney, who's often been described as the Trump whisperer, appears to have distanced herself from the administration. As the war in the Middle East continues, how is Europe managing relations with the Trump administration? Natalie Touchi is director of the International Affairs Institute in Rome and former special adviser to two EU high representatives, I spoke to Natalie earlier. Natalie Touchi, welcome back to Radio National Breakfast. Thanks for having me. EU leaders were meeting in Cyprus when this leaked email from the Pentagon was first reported. What's the reaction, babe? To be honest, it is actually not as, it's not as severe as one would have imagined.

1:01And that's, I think, simply because Europeans are getting used to their threats and, you know, coming from the Trump administration in different shapes and forms. So I think on the one hand, there is this element of numbness, which is basically developing across Europe, in which, you know, here they go again, yet another threat to Europe. And secondly, once you get into the specifics of it, particularly when it comes to the threat regarding Spain and the suspension of Spain's membership of NATO, the truth of the matter is that, actually, there is no legal way for the United States to this because, whereas legally, a state can withdraw from an organization, including an alliance like NATO, there is no way within the NATO treaty for one state to actually suspend another. In fact, there's not even a formal procedure for the suspension of a member state, even if all other states within NATO are to be.

2:05So essentially, it's a bit of an empty threat. And as I said, you know, partly this, you know, here they go again. And partly, the emptiness of the bit has actually not made as many shockwaves as one would have imagined. What's the reaction being in Italy to Prime Minister George Malone's tougher stance towards Donald Trump? Well, to be honest, I think, you know, here too, you know, Trump's attack to Meloni has basically been a godsend for Meloni because here in Italy, there had been a referendum, a constitutional referendum that Meloni lost actually fairly badly. And her approval ratings were actually declining quite severely. And here comes, you know, Trump attacking the Pope of all people. And you know, you are an Italian Prime Minister. Trump in Italy is fairly toxic in public opinion. And Trump attacks the Pope. And therefore you have to choose whether to stand by the Pope or whether to stand by what

3:09increasingly sounds like an unhinged US president. And it's kind of a no-brainer, right? You know, who you're going to stand for. So the minute in which I think, you know, on Meloni's side, it was very much a calculated risk. It was clear that he was going to attack her as a result, and indeed he did. And lo and behold, her approval ratings are going back up again. European leaders are still reeling from President Trump's bid to annex Greenland. Do you think the EU-US relationship and NATO, which Donald Trump has threatened to leave a number of times, can it survive this or in some ways has the European side of the equation become somewhat more unified by dealing with Donald Trump? I think it's definitely become more unified, and especially it's definitely become more unified in dealing with Trump in a somewhat firmer way. You know, what you'd have seen, especially at the beginning of the second Trump administration with European spending, you know, European spending over backwards to try and please Trump

4:14in different shapes and forms. And that was not exactly a spectacular success, and ended up with the betrayal of Ukraine, with the threats to annex Greenland and a lot more. So essentially what you're seeing is Europeans toughening up, and as I was saying earlier that becoming in actually more numb to the threats coming from Washington. Now I think the question that we're all asking ourselves is, you know, at some point, this moment is going to the past, and there will be a post rupture moment of the transatlantic relationship. I think no one is under the illusion that we can simply return to the past, you know, let's say the day in which there is a different kind of, you know, administration in Washington actually wanting to rebuild bridges to Europe. There isn't, you know, the genie can't be put back in the bottle because in many ways trust has been breached, but there will come a moment in which we will rebuild. It is probably that we will rebuild on a slightly different basis to what existed in the past.

5:18How much responsibility does Europe need to take for some of this situation? In particular, it's under investment in defense previously. Well, it needs to take more responsibility, and in fact it is taking much more responsibility. I mean, if you think about Ukraine, for example, which is obviously the main war taking place in Europe at the moment, actually the United States provides no military assistance to Ukraine anymore. In fact, 75 of the military capabilities in Ukraine are produced in Ukraine. So not even, you know, in the rest of Europe. And if you look at those broader numbers of defense spending, essentially, you know, if you project them on to 2030, which is not that far down the line, you have countries like Germany that will end up being the third largest military spenders in the world. And this is just Germany, right? So, you know, the military spending is going up. There is very much an understanding, you know, again, that there isn't going back to

6:23the past and that particularly conventional defense in Europe will be done by Europeans and not by the United States. Now, this, of course, leaves the nuclear question, which is, you know, trickier, but even on the nuclear question, what we have seen is France and the United Kingdom reaching out to Germany, Poland and others, essentially to discuss the potential Europeanization of nuclear deterrents in Europe. Natalie, touch it. A good to talk to you again. Thank you.