Iran–Israel tensions escalate as regional war fears mount

0:00getting into our discussion for this morning, the tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States, shifting from rhetoric to real confrontation over the last few days. Many people expected it. Very basic, of course, didn't expect it with negotiations still being, you know, pretty right in the middle at that point in time. Strikes threats and counted threats, raising fears of a wider regional war. Are we already in a wider regional war? Maybe the day was haven't responded, but the reality is, is that strategic U.S. assets, as well as national assets of countries that are hold, you know, U.S. reserve bases, etc. and have been long time and open friends of the U.S. have in fact been struck by Iran in retaliation. Tonight, we unpacked what's really driving this escalation and whether they is still space for diplomacy, as it seems, that many country representatives, or might certainly be one of them, being as optimistic as they were in the prior to, you know, this confrontation,

1:06that yes, there is room for diplomacy and things will still get better. Joining us this morning is the agenda of us, joining us to unpack what's happening in real time. Asalaamu alaykum, brother Raim Jidah. Brother Raim, stripping away the rhetoric, I mean, strategically speaking, who stands to gain from this escalation right now, and who stands to lose the most? Your thoughts on that? Yes, that is a very good question. I think everyone stands to lose, but it all depends on how these things play out. I mean, at the moment, it seems like just massive destruction all around, so I say all around, but really it's concentrated in that region, in the West Asia region. The United States itself is not really suffering at home,

2:10but it seems like this wide-scale destruction, but it will depend on how this unfolds of, I think, the next week, possibly even months. And depending on that, you know, that we could see potentially among the loses or among the winners, however we want to see it, we could see huge kind of weakening of the Israeli state. Already after two years of genocide, the economy has been in a very bad situation, is in a very bad situation. They've now announced that they're going to call up 100,000 reserves. Not sure what the reserves are going to do, they're not certainly not going to Iran, but that has a big impact on the economy. We also know that, or many military analysts are saying that Israel doesn't have interceptors

3:13for more than about 10 days more, or nine days more, and Iran, on the other hand, has a massive stockpile of missiles. So that is one portable looter in this. Another factor that could result here is that we saw because of the attacks on the GCC states, the six Arab countries around Iran that yesterday they made a statement that they're critical of the US, saying that they expected that by having American bases in their countries, they would be protected. However, as soon as they got attacked, the US preferred to protect Israel rather than them. And so we could see another kind of result of this being a pressure from them on the US to remove those bases or downscale

4:16those bases. That being said, I mean, certainly Iran is covering a lot of destruction. I don't think that the objective that Trump has set or that Netanyahu has set would be achieved, but by by early last night, about more than 550 people killed lots of infrastructure, slow damage, nine hospitals hit one school hit 165 schoolgirls killed, etc. So at the moment, there's a disruption all around. Now, you don't really look at this confrontation and ask the question that how much of this confrontation is being shaped by domestic political survival? And this will certainly be referring to the United States and Israel's leadership in particular. I mean, leadership pressures and coalition fragility rather than pure military necessity, instead no doubt a major

5:23element of political survival here, rather than anything that's required militarily on the ground. Well, in the case of Israel, clearly so. I mean, Netanyahu, he has an election coming up in June. He wants to go into that election, looking like the strongman that has saved Israel from an existential threat. And secondly, of course, that he has all of these court cases, again, court cases and inquiries against him. And he wants to delay those as long as possible or get rid of them. I mean, he's still hoping that that that Trump will convince his president to get rid of those cases. So there's a very strong personal element in the Israeli case. Clearly, so we saw that over the past two years, really, in terms of the genocide, that that played a big role.

6:26On the American side, perhaps a little less clear, but certainly, a lot has to do with Trump wanting to firstly satisfy a part of his base. And I say a part of his base because we now think that that mega base is very much split on this question. So satisfy a part of his base and a part of his funding base, as well as, you know, there's the big question of the Epstein files. And it's now almost clear to everyone that Epstein was a method effect. And does that mean that Netanyahu has a whole lot of material on Trump, apart from whatever files might be revealed, material on Trump that can be used to blackmail him. And that could be another factor as well. So I think, unfortunately, that the person who is playing in those two cases is playing a big role there.

7:30Now, you're finally looking at the question of credible de-escalation. Although it seems far fetched at this point in time, both sides, or at least certainly Iran, is going at, and rightfully so, in self-defense of its territory, and it has been, you know, attacked first. But is there any talk currently of de-escalation? We've seen minor efforts from Obama. In the context, it's not really Biden. It would be significant, nonetheless. But do you see, in the next days ahead, attempt by the international community to de-escalate the situation, and in order for at least some type of, or some semblance of normality to return back to the region, although that this very likely would be that you doble, and you doble of tension? And no, not in the next days, certainly. I mean, you know, if we talk about de-escalation, the United Nations Security Council is entirely impotent here, and three of the veto-wielding powers

8:36in that council, you know, are against Iran, to the parts of the United States, France, and Germany, issued a statement on the first day criticizing Iran, basically blaming Iran for what is taking place. Oman has good intentions, but it depends on the actors involved, whether they want mediation or not. They are three different agendas. The United States and Israel don't have the same agenda. I think from the US perspective, there's a shifting agenda, shifting goals, the sets are in confusion, so Trump initially said that this would be done in a week. Last night, he said, 45 weeks or maybe more, as to what the objectives are, you know, initially, he included regime change. Yesterday, Marco Rubio was much clearer that they wanted to destroy

9:37all the ballistic missiles, all the launches, all the manufacturing capability, and Iran's maybe. And on regime change, he said, that's not an objective. What this indicates to me is that there's a possibility that they could take the option of what happened with Ansarallah, and that is that next week, when Trump gets tired, could declare victory and say, well, we've now destroyed all the capabilities. Whatever missiles they're now using are just whatever is left, but everything else is finished, and so we out. So that's one possibility. From the Israeli side, they, Netanyahu would like this to be a more long-term thing, would the Americans involved, and the objective, of course, is to plunge Iran into chaos that would last for years or decades,

10:38even civil war would be great. And of course, the bonus prize is the relations between Iran and the neighboring Arab states would be ruined, so that's the, so from his perspective, he's not going to accept any kind of mediation, except that he'll be forced at some point, because Israeli is running out of interceptors. In ten days, less than two weeks, they won't be able to defend themselves against Iran's missiles. From the Iranian perspective, they're not interested in a settlement right now. Firstly, because this is the second time in eight months that they were in the middle of talks, and war was imposed on them. So they're not going to trust talks right now. Secondly, when you read between the lines, it's clear that from their perspective, if this war happened, this would be a kind of determining war. They need to establish their deterrence in the

11:41region. They need to make it clear to Israel primarily, but also the US and the US allies in the region that they're not going to take this line down anymore, that they will go full out and they are going full out. And so they're not going to be interested in mediation anytime soon. The other factor, let me end on this, is that this whole assassination campaign might actually turn out to bite the Israelis and Americans. Already, we saw that the head of the IRG, the Islamic Republic Guard Corps was assassinated, and his replacement has been around for a long time. I mean, he even served as defense minister, but recently, he hasn't been promoted by Hamenei, because he was seen to be a bit too reckless. He's now the head of the IRGC.

12:44Who replaced Hamenei? We don't know, but that could also turn out to be not that great. I mean, we know that the only reason that Iran does not have nuclear weapons is that first, Aytullah Hamenei, and then after Aytullah Hamenei, each of them, when they became leader, issued a fatwa that nuclear weapons are basically haram. But in the shia theology, the fatwa dies with the person who issues it. So the new leader is not bound by those and could issue a new fatwa. And if he gives a fatwa that it's, or doesn't give a fatwa that it's haram, they could build nuclear weapons, which then turns out not to be what was intended with this war. So I think lots of things are up in the air, but we're not going to see a settlement soon. Iran certainly wants to exact a massive price, not only on Israel and the United States, but globally,

13:45as we see. I mean, the price of gas in Europe yesterday went up by 50%. Hmm. David Gida, thank you very much for joining us already. Slav International with the Discussion.