Insiders Profit from Iran Ceasefire Bet

0:00On April 9th, some sharp bettors on polymarket just cleaned up big time, pocketing up to $200,000 each by wagering on in Iran. Ceasefire deal hours before Donald Trump dropped the announcement. These were fresh accounts dropping precise bets on whether a truce would hit on April 7th, turning $72,000 into $200,000 for one player, $125,504 another, and $48,504 third. Here that Tuesday, Trump's talk was all fire, warning on social media that a whole civilization could die that night if Iran didn't open the straight. Of Hormuz by his deadline. No real science pointed to a deal, yet these bets rolled in right on time, starting around 10 am eastern time. Republican lawmaker Blake Moore is calling it out, saying these look like insider moves from folks with early access, not legit plays. This ain't new similar, new accounts nailed huge wins on Iran's strikes last October, US air strikes in June 2025, and a joint bombardment on February 28th.

1:04Right now, polymarket has flagged the Ceasefire contract as disputed since Iran still restricts ships in the strait and missiles keep flying, so those. Payouts are in hold for up to 48 hours. Could be insiders, or maybe just folks betting Trump would pull back like before. Either way, experts like Georgia State Prof. Todd Phillips are pushing for rules on these markets to stop inside info from rigging the game and keep it. Fair for everyone watching from the sidelines.