"I don't think they have enough match winners."| First Thoughts - Brisbane vs Adelaide (14.09.26)

0:00Alright, our first thoughts, Brisbane through to, is it their fifth preling final in a row? Did I read that well? Fifth preling final in A row. Well, this is, and Chris Fagan is gonna join us very, very shortly. Remarkable, King Eat, your first thoughts with the game. I was there and it felt like the game was over in four minutes. Is that accurate? Four minutes. Yeah, 100%. And we talk a lot of different things throughout the course of the season. One thing that just keeps coming home to Roost in finals is being able to score in bursts. Yeah, powerful teams can put five on your nose in five minutes. And it always rings true that those teams that gap games against the also rents seem to find a way to carry that in all final series. And whether that's off the absolute start of the, you know, the first saw and what they did on the weekend or at eight point in the game, like, Jolong getting back in the game, we'll get to that later. You know, getting back into the game or actually gaping the game is a massive asset.

1:02And that they just, they still have these half-fords and spark-fords that just ripped the heart out again. Rip your heart out. Yeah, rip your heart out. Like they had that look in your eye. And I, this is, I want to ask Chris Fagan this. When Cam Rainer has that look in his eye, and there's one moment which I thought broke Adelaide's hearts. He picked the ball up out of the center bounce, he went so it doesn't go there often. He was about, I'm going to say six meters away from Alex Neal Bullin with his ball under his arm. He looked at Neal Bullin. He said, this is rugby now. For the next two seconds, this is rugby. Yeah. Good luck if you want to tackle me. And he just steamrolled him. I thought, where's this Cam Rainer every week? And it's not going to be every week that he's in that mood and has that sort of sharpness about him. But it would be nice if it was not once every seven weeks for Cam Rainer. And he's now, I know he's narrowing the prime of his career. So I thought he was symbolic of their attitude. I would love for him to be able to do that more consistently

2:03when he plays like that. He's amazing. What Zach Bailey did against the team that he just rejected the contract. What Charlie Cameron did early? Nearly kick five before half time. What Lohman was able to do? Yeah, when they're in that mood, good luck. I thought the high half forwards engaged in defense for the early part of the game at least. And there's a bit of vision first quarter. Zach Bailey and Will Ascroft, tackling Dawson at the same time. It forced the turnover, went back for I think a mcluggage goal early. And I thought, you know, when you're getting those two involved defensively, you're on, you talk of Rainer rolls right up the field high. And that's the one that enables the leap frog effect. I think it might have been a Lohman goal early. So they pushed right up the ground and got involved defensively. It allows Rainer to have 22 touches. Now it doesn't normally get that sort of volume. The one thing I'm looking forward to asking Chris Fagan later on,

3:04I want to know if there's been a shift with their center bounce crew. Locking Neil starting on the bench and prioritising Bailey in there over and above Locking Neil, I think she's a shift. Nothing happens by accident at AFL level. I think they've gone away and this is just outside looking in. I think that they know they can't have Will Ashcroft and Locking Neil in at the same center bounce as part of that combination, which has been, I think, a mainstay for the year. It's been done, Glee, Ashcroft, Neil. Pretty much as often as they could get them there. I think there's a shift away from that because they know defensively, they leak too heavily. So I look forward to asking Chris whether that's, how much is he prepared to tell us? We all know that Locking's probably leaving. But what he did do, when he come on at the seven minute mark of the first quarter, he's fresh and he's just second wave mid. So he goes in against Curtin and goes, whoosh, whoosh, whoosh. Well, that's what he did in the first quarter. Comes on after half time. Yeah, we did the same.

4:05Whoosh, whoosh, whoosh, whoosh. First quarter, third quarter, seven minute. He's one guy with that against. Whoosh, whoosh. That's it. Go on. If you watch the clearance, Curtin's still standing still. Well, he's not really, or not, a guide right now to be a center-bounds mid. So maybe that's, that's, you know, we've pushed for that and maybe we have to retreat on that. But there's some work to be done there. But I loved the coaching of Brisbane. If you're not going to defend in there, we're not going to put you in there as a pair. What about their ability to respond? And I, you know, the, my commentary certainly last week was how many times can you respond? Like at some point, you're not going to be able to respond every time, but they have done it. I think they're eight and zero in an elimination finals since 2023 grand final last. Like when the pressure is on, this group has responded in that, you know, the full credit to Chris Fagan for his ability to manage the emotions of this group. It's very, it has been a bit up and down. It's certainly not smooth sailing over the last three years. But they are back in a preling final in a big way.

5:07So, it ends worth, we think he's going to be fit. And with Hawthorne's small forwards, including the whiz you pick him, I would think, Oscar Allen or Gallup vulnerable here. Has to be Oscar Allen, doesn't it? Because I thought hipwood was really strong. I thought he played his role perfectly. Hipwood? I thought Gallup was good too. So it's, it's really tough one. And the fact you're in a lot of different things. You've lived this guy to your club. I know. You feel like you're owe him a little bit. You have to support him and make it full. I kicked four last week. Yeah. I, I think that they would stick with Oscar Allen. So who? This is the problem, don't they? No. And there's a great luxury to have, isn't it? This is, this is the disc, and I think last week, they got caught up in this. Oh, who's going to be the unlucky one for us winning the flag or beating Sydney? They got caught up in this stuff. It'll be who it is. And Faggs will sort that out.

6:07He might, he won't tell us. My luggage turned the corner, I thought. He had to, he had to, he had to, much better. Was a big goal early, wasn't it? Yeah, huge goal early. To get him going. He had to get going. So I think everything that they would have wanted to happen in the game happened. Response from Lomon who hadn't kicked a goal for the three games leading to that bang. Rainer bang. The midfield got going. Their forwards, the pressure that you spoke of. Andres takes care of the full thought. No worries. And they're, they're aggressive. And then you get humor baggage back into the, at least looked like the humor baggage that we know. The big difference. And the Texas, I was asking for a defensive player to go in for Stubbys. And I thought it might have been Charlie Cameron, but those half forwards rolled up really high and got involved straight away. They only gave up 24 points from Stubbys. That does, and you look at the last two weeks, they'd given up 57 and 55. That's a, that's a huge number. When they outscortines from Stubbys, 13, sorry, 14 and one. Yeah. Because the rest of the game's so brilliant. Yeah, they're ball movement.

7:08And the aggression out the back line. Zorco some big moments again. I love the arrogance that he brings to this team. That, again, another big statement with that long goal, but they were hunting after him. And he's bringing it. Keep bringing it. And they get 100 meter penalty. Loves it. He's just, he's got a staging form. Couple of staging forms handed out. You know, so that often, right? And it got one. Zorco, you got one? Yeah. And one amongst the league. I was never a four on thing. So there are plus 25 points from Stubbys, which is, which was absolutely dynamite early. The only, the only, the only worry for me, the only worry, is that it still still kick, you know, 39 points bringing the ball out of their defensive 50. It's a big number. It's not their strength there. That's not, they know good at that. And the other mob they're playing this week are related to that. So that's just a little, little wrinkle that I think phase the okay, you know what? We stack the win we move on. But if we're being, if we're being really picky, can't have that happen this week. Do you allow yourself to think of your dream, grandfather, and match up, like who you would like to see

8:09in the grandfather? My, my, my premiership cup. Yeah. Who would you like? Who would you like to see? You want fresh blood in there or do you? Yeah, versus Brisbane. Free O Brisbane. Yeah. You hate Hawthorne. Oh, you hate Hawthorne. It's my pie. Why do you hate Hawthorne, sir? I don't hate Hawthorne. Would you not like to see? You said that. Young blood to fresh blood into the grandfather. I'm not going to call, we're not going to call them frown anymore. We're going to call them the Immortals. This group are going to be the Immortal. Yeah, do you think that's true, though? Like, well, like, is Sean Renn in Immortals where I'd like to, did Sean Renn, who is the first, like, the fourth poor Adelaide players? Like, we're not Immortals. Like, it's been overstayed. It'd be amazing. It'd be great. It'd be brilliant. They'll be Immortals. They'll be Immortals. It'll be the best. You can put pictures to the life. It'll be the best two weeks of your life. And the connection that you have with your teammates will be so special forever. But you missed the emotion of Immortals. Did just do... What? I don't sit there and go, geez, I'm wondering. I don't, you have to run around

9:10the Immortals to do it. I'm an Immortal, because we won the first Pramishit for Port. Let's be neither blind. Just enjoy the moment, soak it up. It'll be the best. You're not Immortals. The fans have been through so much. Any racial or any more Immortal than Matthew Pavlett, if they wouldn't know. Matthew Pavlett couldn't win it. Oh, yeah, I would guarantee you. He's man won the Bloody Norms, myth man. Right. That was... There are mortals in... There are mortals in... There are mortals. We're going to be Immortals. So get back to this side. We need to speak about Adelaide though. Here we do. We have to be well. What do you reckon, Triple Agent? We've got a few spots. All right. Now we're good. So... You wonder how they were going to be thinking about Matthew Nix after that. So was the report that Tom went with was one final's winner, Nuff, to guarantee Matthew Nix's start date round one next year. And that has been confirmed. So soon after that loss, which was over in the first five minutes,

10:10Tim Silver's a CEO, sent out a media release to the Adelaide members. There's been considerable commentary and speculation around our senior coach in recent times, but our position has not changed. We believe in Matthew Nix. We trust the program he leads and we remain aligned to the vision for the future. He will be our senior coach in 2027. It would have been nice if Tim had said that the previous week, I think it would have been nice when he was asked. He didn't. And now if that is the case, and you genuinely believe that, sign him for three years. Sign Matthew Nix for three years. If you... And have to do that. Why not? Because you believe that the position has not changed. You believe in the coach. You trust the program. You are aligned with the vision. Don't go into 2027 with him coming out of contract. Sign him now. If you have that confident and you've got that much belief in him. And then if they lose that belief, then they pay him out. Is that what we want to do? Well, they won't. According to them, they haven't not today. Not today, but you're locking your wife in other three years. Well, if that... And you're the first to do it.

11:11No, and they're way old. That's what they're doing. They're doing it either. But if that's what they genuinely believe, and their position has changed to the point where they've guaranteed this, which they weren't willing to do last week, sign him up. Now I don't think you have to do that. And alleviate some of the pressure that's going to be on him and the club. At handler pressure, this is the gig. I don't feel... Please. Have you lost trust in your man? Who? Next seat? No, not at all. I just... I don't think they have enough match winners. Well, they're not getting any more... Well, they tried. Well, they're not now. So I understand that. So what's a pass mark next year? Well, this is the discussion. Eight years. What did you... They're not winning it next year. They're not winning it next year. Not with this group. Well, I think they've... I think they've recruited bland and they've ended up bland. Their only spark player is really... He's always at Grandkin. The rest have been safe selections. I reckon if you look back through their high end draft picks, I reckon they've been safe, good solid citizens. No...

12:12No desire to bring a potential rat bag or two in that can be a bit different. I'd love to see him get a string atop. Like someone who, you know what, it may be not going to do everything. They've got a dot every eye across every tea, but they might win you a prelim. I'll tell you what they don't need. Isaac coming, peatling a Neil Bullin. That's what they don't need. Yeah, Neil Bullin with disappointing back guys. He's been ineffective. Archie ineffective. They're recruiting a piece. So... Yeah, but Kays has maximized himself. Good, terrific. Right, but they're capped. They've got a ceiling. Kays has been there for eight years. Donnie's absolute best one years. In the audience, I'm not a best in fairs. But that had separate big games. Yeah. Who's the guy that's going to... We've been told that Richelle leave Eric and every four weeks for three years. Is he that guy or not? But, Rankin, so this is what I did think was Paul coaching on the weekend, right? So he's had two clearances in the first three quarters. If you look at the first quarter there, they're 32 points to zero down,

13:12and they got him doing this three way run around. Just dropped a cake. Because, don't, just crap. He's not, don't worry about dropping the tag. He's coming with you. Hey, Isaac, how about going and just beating him? You're our best player. We don't need you picking up Locky Neal. So, now you've got two players to worry about, right? Go and be the guy. It just blows my mind how they dumbly start players down to meaningless roles. So, he's chasing Locky Neal around, having no influence in the game. And I'm thinking, what's the... How does that serve Adelaide? So, let's talk about the... So, if they're not winning it with it, because they're not, they miss Bayley, they're not getting any better. They're going to lose some depth, perhaps, butts goes to the Western Book. They're not getting any better. So, they can't win it with this group. So, eight years to Matthew Nick. What's the past Martin XG? Is it pre-Linfinal? Or if he doesn't make it pre-Linm, is he done? Like, where is it? That's eight years in. He's won three of 16 quarters in finals. Oh, that's the nonsense. Not, it's not. A nonsense, then.

14:12How many quarters has Chris Scott won in finals? How many quarters has... But it matters when he talks about it. What do you mean? No one talks about how many quarters you want in finals. I spoke about it a lot. They didn't win one. How many times did he hear? They didn't win one quarter in the finals last year after finishing on top. Yeah, it's just... It games over in four minutes in a semi-final king. Yeah, no, I just... I have to answer my question. How long you're giving him? I just think that's a nonsense stat. How long you're giving him? What's the past Martin XG? You haven't answered. What is it? Yeah, I haven't really stopped talking. Well, I don't know today. Wait a minute. It's quite... Let's wait and see what happens with the trade week. They've missed out on Bayley. They know they're short of match winner. So, is this the capability in the tournament? That's what it's coming. Is this the capability of this list? Well... They've set up for semi-final and that's where they are. They're going to be pretty impatient if they get to this stage next year. But you can ask for what... You can shoot for the stars, but you've got to have the camera. One more. If Dan Curtin... I've tried to work out what he's best case scenarios. I think he's best case. The best he can be is a Jordan Dawson type.

15:13That's his best. Yeah. His worst is probably Mason Wood. Where do you sit on debt? Is he more likely to be Jordan Dawson? Or is he more likely to be Mason Wood? These are the guys that have got enough season to show us. To show us. Well, I think he's more Dawson than Wood. All right. More first thoughts next. Whoosh, whoosh, whoosh. I can show like this. Uh-uh, uh-uh. I don't know. Anybody. How many do you know more like this? How many do you know? Flow like this. Not many. It's Finney. Not many. It's Finney.