How To Read CPI + Macroeconomics Talk | Aahan Menon Ep.5

Episode 5

On today's show I speak with Aahan, founder of Prometheus Research, a research service with the goal of democratizing finance making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.

1. Background of Macro research

• Understanding underlying mechanisms over analyzing data
• Monetary contracts and how we got here
• Money grows faster than underlying labor and capital
• Monetary policy - tighter is needed to tame inflation
• Interest rates need to be higher than CPI to lower future inflation

2. Monetary and cost push inflation

• Money infused into personal incomes and economy with production and labor
• Fed tools
• Lower real growth 
• GDP growth
• Nominal spending is greater than real spending

3. Stagflationary Nominal Growth with Tightening liquidity 

• Returns not a feature of asset class but a feature of sample selection
• Pressures on production and employment increasing
• Lower output and less need for employment
• Returns on assets relative to cash is negative
• Real incomes and spending weaker so business sales also weaker

4. Allocations

• Cash, commodities, bonds, dollar

5. Stagflation

 

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