How DIFFERENT Would the 2026 Mets Be with Pete Alonso?! | Was Losing Him Stearns' Biggest Mistake?

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. Have you heard that McDonald's spicy chicken McNuggets made with spicy tempura and a blend of aged cayenne are back? Remember to grab a few extra napkins. Bottom up, bup bup bup. For a limited time at participating McDonald's. Before AT&T Business Wireless, it was hard to keep our deliveries on track. This turns and delayed routes will quickly impact the business. One day, our driver even had to make a 14-point turn just to get back on route. A 14-point turn. Now, with AT&T Business Wireless, routes updating real-time and deliveries arrive on schedule, which means we can spend less time dealing with disruptions and more time focused on running the business. When the connection matters, at ACV AT&T, get AT&T Business at ATT.com-slush5Gnetwork. Kitalonzo makes his return to the city field tonight as a visiting player.

1:02How much different would the Metzies in a bend if they just kept their polar bear? You are Lockdown Metz. Your daily New York Metz Podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Metz fans. You're listening to Lockdown Metz. I'm your host Ryan Fickles-Dine and on today's show we're going to talk about Pitalonzo's return to city field. How much different this season would have been had the Metzies kept peat in the first segment. That's what we're going to talk about. How would this season have played out if Pitalonzo was told the Metz first baseman? The second segment I want to discuss if losing Pete was David Stern's biggest mistake and then the final segment we will preview the upcoming series and talk about who gets to 300 first, Pitalonzo or Francisco Lendor. Let's start off talking about this season and how much different it would have been had

2:04Pitalonzo remain with the New York Metz. There's no doubt this team would have been better if they had Pitalonzo starting every game at first base. You could argue this is the best season of his career outside of his rookie season in 2019 when he set that record with the 53 home runs. His WRC plus is 143 which would be his best mark since that rookie season right now that is top 10 in Major League Baseball his 35 home runs ranked 9th. His 100 RBIs are Tywin Jordan Walker for the third best mark in the game and he is pacing the American League and the run production department. Defensively has been much better this year than he was last year although I will say there was a point this season where Pitalonzo was grading out as an above average defensive first baseman. That's not necessarily the case now. He is down to negative 1 out of a average negative 1 defensive run saved last year that was minus 9 out of a average minus 9 defensive run saved. He definitely is not a good defender but he posts plays that every day and he's a lot

3:08better than Mark Vientos was over there in 62 games this season so it's not like the Mets even have that to hang their hat on as being a better defensive team at first. Sure Jared Young in a vacuum a better defender but this season the production of Mets have gotten at the first base spot has not really been better than what Alonzo has done in Baltimore. If Pitalonzo was a MET he would lead the team in games played he has not missed a game for the world started at 150 this year. He would lead them in home runs, RBIs run scored only second to Juan Soto and OPS but having played much more games only Boba has more hits but only two more. But Shet is the same amount of doubles as Pitalonzo but 17 last extra base hits as PIT has 19 home runs more than Bishet and Bishet has just a couple of triples that Alonzo does not. Again the Mets would have been better with Pitalonzo that's an easy thing to say. Offensively he would have been their best hitter this season and I think his presence

4:08when it comes to the leadership aspect and just what it means to have a hitter that is that feared in the middle of your lineup. I think it trickles down to everybody around them and I do think the Mets would have had a better offense this season. Also you wouldn't have 37 games where Jorge Polanco batted a buck 48 with a 201 on base percentage in a 230 slug a 431 OPS. How bad Polanco has been and how bad Mark Vientos was as well really does make the disparity between a Pitalonzo lead Mets and went without him just so much greater because the replacements have been so bad they found someone that's solid and Jared young but there's a lot of other guys that suited up at this spot this year and even though I do think as we'll talk more in the next segment about next season. I think Jared Young with a proper platoon partner is not a bad solution at the first base spot but it's a far cry from a guy that's going to give you 35 and 100 every year.

5:09If you look at Wens Above Replacement this is the second time Pitalonzo's career since that rookie year where he's actually eclipsed 4 Wens Above Replacement. Now anyone who's watched Pitalonzo knows that war is not the best way to measure his value but even with that if you take the 4 War that he has put up and you take the negative 1 War the Mets have got from their first base position again largely due to Mark Vientos and Horie Polanco. You could say statistically the Mets would have 5 more Wens and 5 less losses at Pitalonzo being their starting first base in this year. I think that's a pretty fair number. Like that said that would put the Mets at 74 and 75 right now. The pirates are 75 and 75. The 6 and a half games back. Oh, a playoff spot. So the Mets would be 7 games back even with Pitalonzo if you just buy a win value perspective view it as a 5 win swing having him or not having him. Maybe it's a little bit more.

6:09Maybe they're a little bit better even. Do I think the Mets would have been a playoff team if they had Pitalonzo at first base? And if basically they went into their off season they said we're going to trade Brendan Nemo and make that Nemo for Simi and Swap knowing that Carson Benj is going to be our starting right fielder. Maybe they still get Luis Robert Jr. to be the bridge to AJ Ewing and center field. But you could have just resigned Pete. You would have not signed Bishet or Polanco and you would have probably given the keys to Brett Badi at third base. Now, Badi has not had a good year. I think going into next year if the numbers were similar you'd maybe be having a question about finding a bridge to a Jefferson Rojas or a Jacob Rimer or whoever you believe will be your third baseman of the future from your farm system likely Jefferson Rojas. And so if you're looking at the team next year as we're going to do more of the next segment yeah maybe Brett Badi wouldn't be your long term answer. But for this year that's what you would have done I think had you just signed Pete

7:12and I think you would have been a little bit better. But I don't think that an infield of Peter Lonzo, Marcus Simi and Francisco Lendour and there wait a minute you lose Lendour who would have been your shortstop Ronnie Mauricio. Mauricio goes down if you traded a Cunha for Robert the Mets would have had Videl Bruhon playing shortstop potentially for a long stretch. So this is where the more that you think about it the more I think that you can realize that as much as Peter Lonzo would still I think have made the Mets better and as much as I'm still a full believer that the Mets made a big ol mistake not bringing Pete back and we will get into that in the next segment. I don't think Peter Lonzo saves this season. I don't think that was the one move that you can go back and if you had changed that everything is different. It's not that drastic. This year still would have fallen apart if Juan Soto and Francisco Lendour each missed 50 plus games as they did. If Clay Holmes still gets hit in the leg with a line driving breaks his leg.

8:18Those injuries are really what derailed the season and obviously the 12 game losing streak back in April. And sure maybe the midst of that 12 game losing streak Peter Lonzo is a three run homer and the Mets don't lose that seventh game in a row and the momentum is different and you can butterfly effect this as much as you want to. I don't think Peter Lonzo's impact alone would have saved this season but it certainly would have made the Mets a lot more affordable funny enough because instead of spending 42 million dollars on Bichette and 20 million dollars on Polanco this season you would have spent 31 on Pete that's half the money that you spent on those two guys and moving forward I think the deck would have been a little bit clearer as you try to build out a roster that can win it all in 2027 and that's what we're going to talk about next. How is the off season different coming up and the next couple years different if you're building around Pete Alonzo instead of still trying to fill that void and was that the

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10:22get $50 and bonus bets every day for seven days visit Fandall.com to get started to make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandall. Today's episode is also brought to you by Kalshi on Kalshi America's number one prediction market platform you could trade on every single game on Kalshi your trading it's peers in a live market as the probability changes you can might in and out of your position we've been monitoring the NL rookie of the year through Kalshi South Stewart is sitting at 88% now after no McLean's rough start he went from a 12% odds to win that award dropped all way down at 2% that's what one clunker can do in a race that has such an overwhelming favorite in Stewart now JJ Weatherhold is currently the runner up in terms of odds at 6% down the Kalshi app and use the code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10 that's Kalshi KALS HIKALSHI trade on anything let's be 18 years or older restriction eligibility requirements apply and then contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for

11:24all investors KALSHI products are not available in all jurisdictions prices values and available markets may differ from those mentioned or more information see KALSHI dot com slash regulatory on YouTube today to me favor and hit that subscribe button to help us get closer to the next goal of 18,000 subscribers I would love to get there by the end of the year I appreciate all of you who continue to subscribe now before I even read the comment from Metz fans who say it's pedalanzo's fault he's not in a match uniform they gave him a fair contract extension and he turned them down and then hired Scott Boris as his agent it's all Pete's fault here's where you can't fault pedalanzo that's seven years contract extension would have kicked in in 2024 and pedalanzo's finally a arbitration

12:27he collected 20.5 million dollars that year hits free agency market never develops he comes back to the match on a two year 54 million dollar deal with an op that after the first season he hits $200,000 in player incentives for that first year collect 30 million dollars in salaries who he made 30.2 million dollars in 2025 then he signed a five year 155 million dollar deal with the Baltimore Orioles you put it all together pedalanzo turned down seven years and a hundred fifty eight million dollars and across those seven seasons he will instead make 205 actually 200 no 205.7 million dollars so I think it's pretty clear that he made the right call 50 million dollars essentially an added income by not taking that offer knowing his value and proving it so you can't not Pete for not taking that extension that's that's first and foremost now when it comes to how his free agent sees were handled

13:32the two of them you could say that the maps were right the first time around with the claw fun offer attached nobody value pedalanzo they waited at the market and they were rewarded they got a very good season at a good dollar amount and pedalanzo proved that he was not honest statistical decline he proved that he could continue to be the run production force that he had bet his entire career then comes this past off season if you have read all of the different stories that have come out about the match off season approach about pedalanzo and branded nemo and their conversations when nemo was approached about declining his no trade clause and nemo asked a lot of so what he should do is that he still wanted to be his teammate and people pretty much that haven't talked to me at all the meds never approach pedalanzo the meds I think believed that they could sit out sit there and wait out the market and a really good player would eventually fall to them on a short term high dollar amount

14:36deal maybe that would have been pedalanzo if the Orioles never came a calling and ended up being boba shed after Kyle Pucker wouldn't take to the ultimate's gave him I think that David Sterns from the very beginning trusted his model and his model has always told him the first base position is not one to invest in especially for a guy that's not a good defender over there and he let that cloud is judgment he did not factor in the meaning of pedalanzo to this fan base he did not factor in beyond even that just the ability to perform in this market especially when things aren't going well for the team he didn't consider those things and he felt like he could get you know maybe 70 cents on the dollar and something like korya polonco on a short term deal he thought that bringing a boba shed at the end of the offseason would give them as the wrong production they needed and

15:37defensively it would have worked out better with him at third base and polonco at first instead of brep idiot third and alanzo at first and obviously those things did not pan out and you know there was the big quote to write that happened after the 2024 season where there was that meeting between Scott Boris and a couple other representatives from from Boris Corp. Peter Lanzo with David Sterns and Steve Cohen where apparently Peter Lanzo said when I'm playing out my Hall of Fame career you'll still be fiddling with your flip and formulas and I think Peter Lanzo may be proven right on that I think there is a chance he could still author a Hall of Fame career he's finishing off his age 31 season now back in 2024 college warber had 38 home runs at 104 RBI's in his age 31 season and the two seasons since college warber said 100 home runs and counting showing no signs of wearing down I don't think a lot of will either especially on a

16:39deal that is going to end after his age 35 season if Pete averages 35 home runs a year over the next four years you can add on 142 his current total he's sitting at basically 300 so by the end of this contract he should be knocking the door on 450 Pete said he's wanted to play until he's 40 in the past and so if he does and he stays healthy throughout this entire you know 10 year with the Orioles and then beyond that he probably will hit 500 home runs there are 28 members of the 500 home run club Albert Poole holes and David Ortiz are the last two members to join it they're the only two that have joined the 500 home run club since 2010 John Carlos stands at 456 44 away but he might not get on the field enough to get there my trout is 75 away I think he probably does get there hopefully not gone wood he stays healthy many match hours 105 away still has a ton of real estate on that contract so I'm sure he'll get there Bryce Harper's at 391 he

17:40probably gets there Aaron judge at 385 he'll get there Cosh Warber 384 I think he'll get there so Pete allows it could be the next guy after all those guys who can get to that number and if he does there's a good chance he does go to Cooper's town and I think the Mets you know would have been a very good team across the four years beyond 2026 with Pete Alonzo I don't think that him you know sticking around for a longer term deal would have been as much of a hindrance to roster construction as I think the front office thought it would be now what what happens with Juan so it'll play as a role in this because if Juan so is a first baseman at some point then I guess it made sense and the other thought was you don't want to have Pete Alonzo declining more and more defensively with Juan so declining more and more defensively and both those guys needed to spot but I think you sort of know what you get with Pete Alonzo I think you would have been fine at that spot and I

18:43think first baseman defense especially when the guys good around the bag I just don't know how much of a deterrent that really is you know could there have been a big playoff game where Pete Alonzo tries to turn to and it ends up costing you a playoff series I guess so but also how many playoff series could he win you with his bat so look at the end of the day this is something that I don't think a lot of Mets fans are ever gonna kind of forget about probably something that a lot of Mets fans won't really forgive David Sterns for and last next year you you find the right compliment to Jared Young at first base Boba Schett's awesome at third and you win a world series in 2027 or if Pete Alonzo falls off a cliff then maybe maybe but at the end of the day not only did Pete Alonzo go to another team and continue to produce but what you got back has just blown up in your face with Jorge Polanco and quite frankly Boba Schett because he doesn't have to be sure is awesome next season his product will be worth $42 million when he opts out he gets a $5 million kicker it'd be very

19:48hard for Boba Schett to be worth $47 million next season and even if you know that proves to be the case that he is in the opts out not worth 40 47 but he's great in the opts out you would have spent two years $129 million in Jorge Polanco and Boba Schett and for only you know $26 million more you could have got three more years of Pete Alonzo now I know that's not exact calculus and how you build the team because Pete Alonzo's money is spread out over five years and technically if Boba Schett opts out you're free and clear on your books beyond next season and maybe Bill Yamacu you're starting first baseman and he is a 40 home run hitter that's a three true outcome guy we talked about him on the live stream after the game yesterday as we got into Syracuse a little bit when we talk about him more on tomorrow morning show as I do some minor legal words I think and we'll also be talking about the Syracuse meant's plot push but you know Bill Yamac could be that or next year he might not ever get up to the big leagues he might have a terrible season in Syracuse

20:53we don't know you know Jefferson Rojas might end up being the answer and you might have this cost controlled infield and it all works out but until that happens it doesn't look good for David Cerns it really doesn't and as long as Pete Alonzo remains productive I will still feel like there could have been an alternative road the Metz went down where Pete had remained with the Metz the fans could have watched you know a homegrown Metz author what could be a hall of him career entirely in that uniform and it could have just been a cleaner fit for everyone but the Metz made their bed now that the line it and we'll get to watch Pete Alonzo taking a bat against the Metz over the next couple days here at Cityfield with a chance to get to his 300th career home run we're going to talk about the final segment today who gets the 300 first for in Siskelland door Pete Alonzo who to the Metz want to see get there first and we'll also preview the series that lies ahead if you got sweet tooth like I do you know how tough it is to find that perfect

21:57treat with that all the sugar that's why the fruity Rambo five hour energy shot is there to bring that nostalgia flavor back in a whole new way fruity Rambo five hour energy shots treat your taste buds to an explosion a fruity flavor with a tasty caffeine kick it's quick easy and the best way to satisfy that sweet craving while keeping things simple and on the go a zero sugar treat that sweet tooth approved I just love how convenient it is if I'm going on the road for a while I just know if I have that five hour energy shot with me whenever I need that little pick me up it's there for me and it also helps with those sweet cravings as well get candy flavored chaos with a fruity Rambo five hour energy shots available online at five our energy dot com or on amazon today's episode is brought to you by the Dell XPS I'm Wes Goldberg from Lockdown NBA Daily and Lockdown Heat so what does it feel like to have a better laptop like the Dell XPS powered by Intel Core with a premium design that's thin and light it feels smooth with a responsive touch screen it feels fast and precise and with long lasting battery life it feels like non-stop energy with a

23:00laptop that can keep up built for those who want better the Dell XPS built for you thank you for being a lockdown match your first listen my first watch every day and thank you for making locked on the number one sports podcast network now as we look at this series coming up the biggest storyline obviously is penal ounces return and then the kind of subplot of that is penal on so in Francisco lendor through very different roads have ended up at the exact same place they are both sitting at two hundred and ninety nine career home runs going to the series which is pretty wild because if Francisco lendor doesn't get hurt this season he would have got to that number already it took Francisco lendor let's see one thousand six hundred and

24:05six games to get to that two hundred ninety ninth home run pitalonzo obviously did it in shorter order it only took Pete one thousand one hundred and fifty seven games Pete obviously the more prolific home run hitter Francisco lendor has had the better career up to this point now the two of them for this series both are pressing up on a little bit of personal history so it's going to be fun to see a little mini home run race and just whoever gets their first gets their first it'd be great to see both of those guys get there during the series I think it'd be a lot of fun I am curious and we will pull the audience both on youtube and across social media who do you want to see get to three hundred this week do you are first you want to see for Francisco lendor or pitalonzo get there I'd be very curious to see what the result of that poll is I don't know what I would vote to be honest with you which is crazy because for Francisco lendor is a mat but

25:07you only got three chances to see pitalonzo get to three hundred for lendor you got you know seven chances this week with the three games against the euros and the four after that against the Philadelphia Phillies I think Pete's got a good run of pictures to potentially go yard against Jonah Tong has had some home run problems this year he's on the mountain I'm very excited to see what he looks like in his second start of the season it'll be his fifth game pitch but the first three came out of the bullpen branding young is going to be going for the Orioles been a very consistent arm for them three seven one the RA and 25 starts this season his first full big league season in a rotation Tuesday will be shame bause versus Sean Menaya Menaya's got a 479 year round the year he's been very good early in starts lately but has fallen apart once he gets to the sixth inning so we'll see if those problems persist or the match go five and dive with him to try to avoid them shame bause has had a decent first season with the Orioles that's a trade that

26:08I think the Orioles might want back when you consider the talent that got sent to the raise for bause in division but bause is a 4.05 year in the year over the last seven starts 4.65 year right final game if he don't want to hasn't done it up to that point Robert stock and a bullpen game might be the answer for Chris Bassett will be going for the Orioles so that is the slate all three games night game seven 10 starts for all of them they will all be actually no the first two games will be on SNY and then Wednesday will actually be an ESPN game unfortunately but I'm happy tonight is on SNY so enough to deal with the national broadcast of pedalons is return it'll be Gary hopefully Gary Keith and Ron just like you'd want for a game that is going to feel a little bit different from that's fans and I'm really excited to watch it you know I you know had covered all of pedalons those career up until this season obviously my first season doing this show is 2019

27:13and so I think pedalons are leaving was the transaction that probably hit me the hardest since I started doing this show it's either that or Jacob to Graham but I think the to Graham one I saw the writing on the wall more and I don't know why I did it and retrospect with pedalons though it was a lot more obvious than I think a lot of us fans probably let on because we just assumed no yeah the bets are going to bring them back but David Sterns obviously thought otherwise and we probably should have seen the coming but that one blindsided me a lot more especially on the heels of the Edwin Diaz departure the day prior it was a lot and so now to see it all come full circle into watch pedalons so compete against the meds it's going to be a weird game it really is I'm really excited for it's also my birthday today it is my my piazza year turning 31 I guess I just turned 31 as I'm recording this past midnight but I'm still going to be live

28:17after the game I am spending the day with my wife and then at night we're going to be watching meds vs orals I'll be going live right when the game ends and I also will be talking about on that show um you know what September 14th has looked like for the meds since I started doing this show because there's been a lot of big milestones in things that have happened on my birthday so that'll be the final segment of the live stream the first two will be covering the game and whatever we watch this pedalons that squares off against the meds and then tomorrow's show we're going to still have a full show in the morning that'll come up and that will be again probably a minor league award show um or at least a minor league centric show looking at the Syracuse meds in particular who have one week left to play with the top prospects in the med system Jefferson Rojas joining them for a playoff push and we'll see if they can get there this week I appreciate all of you for tuning in make sure you follow rate and review wherever you get your podcast subscribe if you're

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