How Carney built his Liberal majority on Trump

0:00Are you ready for a liberal majority government? Well, it's coming to you courtesy tonight of a series of bi-elections. Seminal moment in Canadian politics and for our Prime Minister, Mark Carney. In studio, it was co-founder of the hub Sean Spear to break it all down with me. Hey Sean. What do you think of this? The liberals are on a bit of a high. They've come out of a convention. They had a floor crosser that we discussed last week. They're conservative MP going over now, three bi-elections. This looks like a lock. It does. And although most of us have grown up pressured with majority governments as a norm, it's easy to forget that we haven't had a majority government nationally since 2019. In fact, in the 2019 and 2021 election, the party that lost actually won the popular vote in the April's election, it was still pretty tight. So it has big implications in parliament in terms of what the government can do

1:02and so on, and we can talk about that. But at like a more atmospheric level, I think it says something about where the momentum is. And it says something about the extraordinary coalition that Mark Carney has been able to build since he first entered the political arena last January. Yeah, well let's start there. Some liberals are kind of touting the line that the liberal party of Canada today is the anti-Trump coalition. What do you think about that? In some ways, it does seem like an accurate diagnosis of where this party is ended up. We just saw, again, a very so-called conservative member from the socially conservative part of the party across the floor in Piccadot. And we know, for instance, the deputy leader of the Ontario NDP now has every sign and indication that they too will be joining the liberal caucus as of the coming week.

2:03I mean, what do you make of this straddling here between what would seem like polarities in politics? Yeah, you use the phrase anti-Trump coalition. That's not our words. It's a liberal source and a column in the Toronto Star today who says, quote, we are an anti-Trump coalition. That's what we are. And that's where Canadians want us to be because they're spooked by the guy south of the border. The source goes on to say, the villain is clear and he's not in the country. And so you get the sense, Roger, that even in their own self-image they've subordinated principles and values and ideologies and even policy priorities. And the one thing that connects the dots from Maryland Gladhew to this incoming new MP, the current Ontario NDP deputy leader and Stephen Guibo and everybody in between, is that they are the party that have crystallized in the minds of Canadians as being anti-Trump. And that, of course, is helping them as poll after poll tells us, particularly with that older cohort,

3:06who really do seem animated by Trump as the central issue of our politics. Yeah, some recent polls I think showing the liberals could have opened a lead of upwards of 12 percentage points over the conservatives. And again, that, that switches around depending on your pollster and depending on your week. But I think clearly this war in Iran has caused another kind of wave of, you just drive a nausea inducing anxiety, go through the Canadian body politic. Let's talk a little bit though about Pierre Paulier, because Sean, what does this mean for him? I mean, this is, in a sense, both, I guess something that maybe if you believe the rumors, the conservative party is not entirely unhappy with, and so far as they've been spared a spring election, an election where quite possibly the liberals would have effectively commanded a supermajority and the conservatives would have seen significant seat losses. And Pierre Paulier would have likely have lost his leadership.

4:06So how are conservatives looking at this moment where they're going to lose control of the committees? We're back into majority government. If the rumors of more conservative MPs crossing this doesn't become a small razor-thin majority. It starts to become something that looks increasingly healthy and increasingly enduring. Yeah, I think all that's right. The drip, drip, drip of floor crossings right now is kind of the no one unknown of our politics. Pierre Paulier has staved off claims about his leadership in spite of these floor crossings. One wonders if that number starts to get too high, that both external pundits and even MPs within his caucus start to raise questions. You mentioned on the other hand that some of them may be glad that the prime minister is backed into a majority as opposed to going into a general election where by all accounts large number of conservative MPs would be vulnerable. On Friday's round table, you and I, at least I was pretty pessimistic about conservative fortunes and the future of Pierre Paulier's leadership.

5:13That diagnosis hasn't changed fundamentally, but I was reminded budgeted over the weekend in new polling from advocates, carried out by David Coletto, a regular guest at our hub politics show, that notwithstanding all of the top level issues facing Pierre Paulier and the conservative party, they are still polling at something like 38%. A number that exceeds where Stephen Harper was in his majority in 2011. And so to go back to the first part of the conversation, we really do have these two solitudes in the country. One motivated by Trump and everything he stands for with respect to Canadian identity and Canadian sovereignty and so on. And if you belong to that camp, you are strongly in favor of Mark Carney and the Liberal Party and that vast coalition that comprises it. If you're motivated by more conventional political issues, it's the economy's stupid. The conservatives continue to have fine residents and so that's not a, it's not a glasses hat full per se.

6:19I think the unbalanced things are still worrying for Mr. Paulier and the conservatives. But it does speak to something that must be enormously frustrating for them. If you told Pierre Paulier, stripped of all of the information, you're at 38% and you're winning on the economic issue, he would be feeling a lot better than he is today and will be indeed after tomorrow's by elections. Let's just wrap up by talking a little bit about Mark Carney. He's got a majority and maybe we'll see with more floor costings, maybe it's more enduring majority. What happens? How does potentially his government change? I mean, in some ways, is it, is it, not a poison child? That's probably going too far, but is it a, a double-edged sword that when you have a majority, understandably, expectations could rise on the part of the voting public. That you now have the ability to get whatever legislative agenda you want through, through our system. It's designed that way. What is that agenda?

7:20You and I have often talked over the last few parliamentary sessions just how watered down this liberal party agenda has been to this point. Yes, there's been things like the major projects office. There's been efforts to try to liberalize trade in Canada, all imperfect and incomplete. I don't know, what do you expect there? Are you expecting us to see a bigger, broader, more articulated Carney agenda emerge in the context of majority? We do have a spring fiscal update coming in the next period of time. What are your instincts? I'm glad you go here because I think this is precisely the right question as we've discussed in the past. Mr. Carney was elected with a pretty thin platform, one that was conceived in short order before springing in election in March. It was one, of course, that lined up pretty closely to the conservative party platform on issues like tax reductions and carbon tax, carbon tax, rate was sort of a form, etc.

8:21That platform is essentially exhausted. At this point, I think it's fair to say that the government is running mostly on vibes, on direction. People kind of vaguely understand what Carney is about, but it's less clear on how precisely he intends to go about achieving it. I think that gap between people's expectations and the reality on the ground is a major risk for him, and why, as we wrap up, Richard, if I was advising the Prime Minister, after these by-elections, I would prouge parliament and come back with a speech from the throne that really does articulate in some detail what his legislative agenda is going to look like in the coming months. I think you're right that there is a risk that people start to lose enthusiasm for the vibes and start to ask questions about where the beef is if I can put it down. Well, Sean, great to have you here in studio. We'll watch these by-elections tonight, but I think all indications suggest this is inevitable. We are in liberal majority territory, and I guess maybe just, I've got you here, so I might as well ask, how long do you think this lasts?

9:30Do you think we're literally into the potential here of a government that could go on for years? I mean, with our legislation around elections, what would it be three and a half plus years from now that potentially this majority could run if it wasn't brought down on some reason that we can't fathom right now? Wow, that would mean how many years of consecutive liberal rule would we be looking at in Canada? About 15, right? Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals were first elected in 2015, so we'd be out to 2030, and there's so much to say in response, I know we're wrapping up. We could talk a bit about what that means in the short term, but at a higher level to step back for a second, it would start to raise questions about the basic premise of the conservative party of Canada. It was created in 2003, 2004 to make sure that the 21st century wasn't like the 20th century, where the Liberals were the national and natural governing party, and the fact that soon after being established, the conservatives governed for a decade left people feeling pretty good that this was a political vehicle that was different than the old conservative party.

10:46Now 15 years and possibly counting, as we've discussed in the past, whatever one thinks of Mr. Polly having the conservatives, and as I say, you can tell yourself a good story or a bad story, I think that starts to raise doubt about the kind of utility and value of the conservative party as a political vehicle in this century. Yeah, well said, well look, these are big questions. I think regardless of our politics, competition is good, whether it's in markets or in parliaments or hockey or hockey, yeah, and that too poor maple. How many more games? I think we've got two or three games left than the Leafs like the conservatives can contemplate a long time in the penalty. Thanks, Sean, for coming to the studio. We'll do this all against you. Thanks for listening and watching this edition of Hub Hits. If you're enjoying what's on the channel and what's in our podcast feed, please become a subscriber. Also, hit over to our website, www.thighhub.ca for our best analysis and insights on Canadian economics and politics.

11:50We got it all for you. Enjoy and we'll see you again soon. Bye bye.