Hezbollah's End Game: Hilal Khashan Reporting from Lebanon

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1:06Hello and welcome to this podcast from Geopolitical Futures, I'm Christian Smith. As the war in the Middle East continues, the future of Iran remains an open question. The same can also now be said for Lebanon, where exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel have been taking place for more than a week. Hezbollah wishes to avenge the death of Iran's supreme leader. Israel sees the current moment as an opportunity to destroy Hezbollah once and for all. But with hundreds now dead in the country and around 700,000 people displaced, where does the current conflict in Lebanon end? How is it tied to what is going on in Iran? And where might the Iranian conflict be headed? To discuss just that, I am joined on this podcast by Geopolitical Futures, senior analyst Professor Halal Kishan, who is in Lebanon.

2:09Hello Halal. Hello, Christian, how are you doing? I'm good. Thanks. I'm good to start with how are you? Tell us what it's like from your personal experience there in Lebanon at the moment. Of course, you're not in Beirut itself. But what can you see? What are people talking about there? How does this feel compared to some of the conflicts that have been going on in the last few years? Yeah. Well, this is a different conflict. And the past, every conflict ended with a ceasefire. This conflict is not going to end with a ceasefire. Therefore, it is an open, open-ended question. The ultimate objective of Israel during this war is to finish off, as well as by the time the war is over. Israel has repeatedly stated its objective to eliminate Hasbullah and it hoped that the Lebanese army would shoulder their responsibility. However, the army command is hesitant to take on such a momentous task.

3:10As you know, Lebanon is a sectarian country. And one third of the troops in the Lebanese army are Shiites. Should the Lebanese army attempt to disarm Hasbullah, there is a high risk that the army would splinter. It happened twice in 1976 and in 1984, when the government sought to take sides in the civil war. So whenever the government takes sides in the civil war, the army splinters. And the army command does not want this to happen again. So therefore, Israel will do it. And you know, actually, the Lebanese army is hoping that Israel would relieve them of the task of this army Hasbullah. And just from a personal perspective there, hello, a people perhaps more worried about what's going on now than they would have been, say, during the conflict a couple of years ago,

4:11or perhaps even last year, of course, Hasbullah was not involved in the 12-day war last year, but when that was going on as well. Well, now, people are aware that this is a different conflict. People are still hoping that Hasbullah would not venture and join this war, especially as you mentioned, Hasbullah did not take part in last year's, last year's 12-day war. Now, what this is what happened, after the ceasefire last November 2024, Hasbullah abided by the terms of the ceasefire. Actually, Hasbullah received a very severe blow by the Israelis during that war that culminated in the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, and of course, it followed the pagers attack that killed that injured more than 4,000 Hasbullah operatives. Now, since the ceasefire in 2024, in November 2024, Israel continued to bombard Hasbullah

5:15and target its militants. More than 500 Hasbullah members have been killed since then, until the break out of this state of fighting, Hasbullah and you, Hasbullah knew that Israel aimed at eliminating it. Actually, on the day, actually, a day before Hasbullah opened a front against Israel this time, Hasbullah's chief said, this we are going to have war, and we will fight heroically until the last soul of our soldiers. He knew that Hasbullah will be defeated in the event of war. But he knew whether Hasbullah opens a front or not, their fate is the same. He said, let's die fighting, let's die standing. So the question of death or martyrdom as Hasbullah advertised its military campaign, Hasbullah

6:23Sheahat's perspective about war is painted with martyrdom that goes back to the days when the Umayyats during the first Islamic State, after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, the Battle of Karbala, Imam Hussein was beheaded by the state. And since then, Sheahat's commemorated this event and they haven't forgotten it for 300 years later. And there are ones that if our Imam was beheaded, then we are no better than our Imam and we have to repent for his death and for the way that we abandoned him. And here came the vision of martyrdom and martyrdom for them means in your life. So Hasbullah decided to go to war. I don't think the idea was to avenge the killing by Israel of the Supreme Leader.

7:32Hasbullah did not attempt to avenge the killing of Hassan Nasrallah or his successor Hashim Safiyyiddin. So it was not a question about revenge, it was an issue about dying standing. That's interesting. So you think the current, because of course Hasbullah was the first to strike and this most recent conflict against Israel. Do you think their decision to do that was much more about taking the opportunity to die standing as you say, because they probably thought that Israel was going to come for them at some point soon anyway? Yeah, actually for 16 months, Israel bombarded Hasbullah and killed its men on a daily basis every day, and Hasbullah did not respond. And then the argument was, okay, we are being killed anyway, so why not take a stand and fight? That's a simple advice.

8:32And let me just drill into that for a little bit. So you think Hasbullah effectively now is conscious of the fact that this could be its last fight, that this is part of a wider change in the Middle East, where it may no longer be a credible military force going forward. Well, they are aware of the consequences, and it's not that that will no longer be credible. I think the objective is to eliminate them as a fighting force. And I think even the plan goes beyond their elimination as a fighting force. I think the objective also is to ban their political dimension of the party. Hasbullah has two components, one is literary and one political. So the plan is also to finish off their civilian administration and their political establishment. Hasbullah has 13 members in the Lebanese parliament. And the parliament just extent given itself another mandate of two years, because it is

9:39difficult to hold elections nowadays, you know, should an election, a parliamentary election, take place, Hasbullah will not be able to place any member in the parliament. So I mean, the defeat of the elimination of Hasbullah's military component will lead to the dismantlement of their political establishment as well, because Hasbullah over the past 35 plus years dominated leverian politics thanks to its military component, with the elimination of their military component, their political institutions will become worthless. And so just on that, so why would, if there was an election tomorrow or in a couple of years, why would it no longer be able to have MPs in parliament? Is it just because its legitimacy is being degraded? Well, okay, you know, many Shia'ites are unhappy about Hasbullah's behavior, especially every time there's a war, hundreds of thousands of Shia'ites become displaced.

10:41I remember since 1993, there was an operation in 1993 and 300, that lasted for a week, and 300,000 Shia'ites fled. In 1996, Israel waged the grapes of wrath operation, 500,000 Shia'ites fled their homes. 2006, all Shia'ites fled the south, 900,000 people, during the last year war, again, hundreds of thousands fled their homes, and Shia'ites closed many of their houses in the south, and they become fairly. And now, the same is happening again, there's widespread destruction, so there is a resentment of Hasbullah. Shia'ites want to lead a normal life. Many of them are aware that given the range of the current operations, and what will happen in the near future, when Israel announced its offensive, some of them believe that they will never return to their homes. So the lives of many Shia'ites have been shattered.

11:44That had an impact on the way they perceive Hasbullah. However, their opposition, their resentment of Hasbullah remains muted, because the consequences of opposing Hasbullah for Shia'ites is extremely high. There's a better way to buy blinds, shades, shutters, and rapery, and it's called three-day blinds. Three-day blinds is the leading manufacturer of custom blinds, shades, shutters, and rapery, and we've been doing this for over 45 years, so we really know our stuff. Here's what makes us different. A professional design consultant comes right to your home with tons of samples, helps you pick the right style, takes precise measurements, and even handles the installation. No guesswork, no DIY disasters. Whether you want more privacy, better light control, or to upgrade your home with motorized or smart blinds, three-day blinds has thousands of options to fit any style or budget. So for a free, no charge, no obligation consultation, head to threedayblinds.com-podcast50 for our buy one get one 50% off deal. That's the

12:50number three, d-a-yblinds.com-podcast50. So Hasbullah may tolerate Shia'ites criticism of the party, but if Shia'ites criticize the party, then they might face consequences that they would rather not be subjected to. That's interesting. Let's come onto what Israel is trying to do in a moment, but while we're talking about the wider domestic situation and living on, I want to say, living on to President Joseph Owen who took over at the start of 2025, he's been in the news the last few days. He issued a statement which CNN called Remarkable calling Hasbullah an armed faction that wanted to achieve the fall of the state of Lebanon. After many years of disorder, I suppose, in Lebanese politics and the inability to form governments, the current government has a lot more support, at least from outside, living on. I'm not sure what the situation is

13:55domestically, but it says that it wants to disarm Hasbullah. How likely is that how possible do you think a kind of, not a conflict, but maybe a confrontation between the state and Hasbullah is? Now, there is a political confrontation, but the army does not want, the government does not want a military confrontation. Since the election of Owen, early January 2025, he took the file of Hasbullah's disarmament, personally, and he involved himself with frequent meetings with the head of Hasbullah's parliamentary block, trying to convince him to disarm peacefully. And he told him, he told him on many occasions, the game is over, you need to accept the new reality, Hasbullah has to disarm. And you don't have to worry about the achievements of the Shiite community and the Lebanese political system, the achievements that they made during the past 35

14:57class years. Now, but Hasbullah has been adamant about a refusal to disarm. They argue in rather, not only in a convincing way, but in a manner that shows lack of understanding of reality. They say, our military component is important for the defense of Lebanon, but everybody is telling them, how can you defend Lebanon if you cannot defend yourself? If you are lame doc, Israel keeps targeting you on a daily basis and you can't do anything to stop Israeli attacks on you. But Hasbullah realizes that the moment they abandoned their military component, Shiite, they will lose their political significance. That's the main, the best, the best way to maintain the best way to maintain their achievements in the Lebanese political system is to keep their arm in the wing. That's the issue. They know that they are not much for Israel and they know that they will never fight Israel again, because this is the end game now.

16:03Right. And how much, from the point of view of the Lebanese state, how much of their position, I've seen it, I've seen opinion elsewhere suggesting that a lot of some of the the position, the anti Hasbullah position, the desire for disarmament has come from outside forces from the US and from Israel, pressuring the Lebanese government. Do you think that's true? Or do you think this is a more internally driven process? Both, but essentially it is internally driven. Right, after Israel pulled out to an electorally from South Lebanon in 2000. Israel celebrated as the day of liberation. Actually, Israel could have stayed in South Lebanon, but there was an opposition in Israel for the war in Lebanon. Many Israelis believed that it was not necessary for defending Israel, as you know, the IDF was established as a defense force. And many Israelis, including internally, to believe that the war in Lebanon had

17:08nothing to do with the defense of Israel. And the 1999, the two, the two contenders for office in Israel, I remember, who'd Barack and let's talk groceries, specifically your groceries with Instacart. You want your groceries just the way you like them, right? Well, the Instacart app lets you do just that. They have a new preference picker that lets you pick how ripe or unripe you want your bananas. Shoppers can see your preferences upfront, helping guide their choices. Instacart, get groceries just how you like.