Hackmann: Look to Dividend Stocks Amid ‘Pretty Concerning’ Market Signs

0:00So as the markets have to digest all the geopolitical uncertainty the sticky inflation that we could be seeing because of energy just raises new questions about your portfolio and Russell Hackman president of Hackman wealth partners and author of Wall Street is not your friend is back with us here on set it's great to see you again thank you for being here well it's a tricky time isn't it in fact we were saying how this sell off down five weeks in a row the longest sell off we've seen since 2022 some of your thoughts well you got a cope with as you're as you're saying hey this is now we're near the end of the first quarter and it's going to be down the major indices down five six seven eight percent right and you know I think that hopes of a rapid end to the war are diminishing you know you're seeing that regardless of what DC is saying you know oil spiking markets down volley spiking right so you know pretty concerning that we may be in for a more protracted war and

1:04even if even if you were to have peace I think there's you know the energy prices are not dropping you know in an instant far from it so there's the other thing I think you were alluding to is you know the possibility of even fed hikes is on the table I mean I don't know about that do you think that's possibility well the futures markets are are are saying there's a 40 percent chance of a hike or so why would they hike and when would that be inflation right I mean you're looking at even before the war started you know you were getting inflation numbers PCE CPI etc you were getting inflation numbers that were around three percent that's still definitely higher than we want it to be and now you have basically an energy shock that you know impacts the price of oil and gas etc impacts the price of almost everything else right so that that that's why they're talking about it yeah I mean the the likelihood the

2:06probability of a fed rate hike by year and now up to 52 percent on the CME fed watch tool yeah this is we talk about inflation that's down also is in correction territory you know I hadn't really thought a lot about a hike but it's interesting I mean if they're going to be so worried about inflation it's going to be very hard though because it's energy inflation it's not quite inflation on food or inflation I mean does maybe the higher energy cost get passed on to the customer and then it you know sort of snowballs like that and the meantime here you know what do you tell folks about investing at this point I mean you have people that are retirees they probably have a plan diversified portfolio but what do you tell them now well there's sort of the long term and then there's sort of the short to intermediate term you know I think in the short to intermediate term it's we've gone from sort of wing wind at our back with you know the Fed having been forecasted to cut rates this year which is almost always a good thing for the markets to jeep prices up to your point

3:11about hey why would the fed raise rates or why would inflation be staying high even regardless of energy you know the government deficits are still very high and that in and of itself is inflationary that's printing money right I mean it's pretty incredible I mean I'm not making any predictions you had you know one firm say I think it was Goldman Sachs saying two to three cuts this year and JP Morgan was saying none right so the concern here is that you have energy inflation which then brings down GDP right which then slows the economy then you have no job creation we're already a very slim job region anyway we're getting that jobs report next Friday even though the we were talking about it upstairs with our team it's it's good Friday we're closed here on Wall Street but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release that number but that's what happens that's the ABCD right high and high energy higher inflation GDP down job creation down so then you need I don't know then you would need a cut maybe

4:13they should cut now well and you know certainly what the Fed doesn't want to see is the possibility of inflation you know jump in substantially above 3% and you can't say it can't happen because it happened in 2020 2022 right the OECD yesterday had morning of inflation above 4% yeah so that was important too so is there certain areas that you invest in that you think are sort of inflation hedges or good for the long term for whatever reason what advice to folks you know one thing that's just been interesting this year and I'm sure you've been commenting on it here has been the you know the transition and leadership of the market from the magnificent seven stocks those stocks now underperforming right and so therefore and if you start looking at the sort of more traditional dividend paying stocks those can be places to hide out areas where there's some principal protection we like that for folks I mean going into

5:15this year everyone was sitting on 70% S&P gains from the last three years I mean I think for a lot of folks steps are potentially in order to you know reduce risk if especially if they're retirees and have you know anything more than 50% their money in the stock market you know I want to bring some breaking news here to you I was waiting on the House leaders to move along with the TSA approval right well they didn't the House GOP leaders reject the bill this is breaking news it's just coming off across here I hadn't heard this yet have you heard this yet they reject the bill right they are not they are likely to extend the standoff they want immigration to be part of this immigration funding yes and it had passed that yesterday evening right and so or they had agreed it was fine and so now it was going to the House and they had didn't even have a roll call but they had agreed for the pay for the TSA and they put the immigration enforcement aside but now this but the president has

6:19put an executive order to get the TSA workers funded so I guess that will move forward well sir I mean it's as listen I'm at I'm at an airport almost every week and it's definitely been getting messier you know that's not a you know that's not a great thing that they can't sort that out and you know any kind of pressure as a pertains to air travel gets everyone you know concern right right and one one representative and just sort of wrapping this part of it saying from Texas a representative chip Roy the Republican from Texas absolutely offensive to the people that they're sending this bill over it doesn't fund border patrol and the core components of ice so that's where the disconnect is and so that's where it's a you still have a standoff pretty incredible I mean what do you think about some of those stocks that have to do with travel or the consumer and we've got the consumer Michigan sentiment and that's a

7:20kind a little bit yeah I think the you know air fairs are going up already right and price of obviously jet fuel is way up that's going to impact the cost of travel that will impact the summer travel season that will as you talk about all these connections you know one thing after another that's not super for the economy either right even if you look at and it's already coming through not just in the price of filling up your gas tank but you know home energy as well prices are going up substantially for many many Americans what have been some your favorite plays over the years and can they still work is it a name is it a strategy is it an index you know they taught me you know back when I had a lot of hair that at the University of Chicago that you really can't be the market so I've generally been kind of an index guy right I mean we like to diversify we like diversified holdings single name

8:21investing is is is you know very very tough but you know right now if you had to pick some you're picking some of the more defensive names some of the names where if the economy does have a downturn we're gonna be hanging in there defensive names yeah yeah all right well Russell Hackman president Hackman wealth partners author of Wall Street is not your friend here with us today thank you so much