Gold Price Action Unmasked - LFTV Ep 265

0:00Central bank sovereigns and institutional buyers recognize gold is temporarily deeply underpriced and they're rebuilding their gold assets. They now have to keep printing all we crash. We've got this ticking time bomb talking gold with the one and only Andrew McGuire. Welcome to Life From the Volts. Welcome to Life From the Volts. Brought to you by Kinesis Money and we're certainly glad that you've joined us here. You know, Life From the Volts is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the precious metals industry and joining us today is Kinesis' very own world-renowned whistleblower and precious metals industry expert, Mr. Andrew McGuire. And this week we'll be answering more questions from you, the Life From the Volts community. So keep those questions coming in and just look down below in the description. You just have to click that link, record your question and you never know.

1:01Your question may well be chosen for Andrew to answer right here on Life From the Volts. So just before we head over to the UK today, I want to have a little bit of fun. I think we're going to have a little bit of fun and let's hear from Mr. K over to you, Mr. K. Welcome to Kinesis Research Division. We've been researching whether an 8-foot silver bag gorilla can protect your savings better than Kinesis. It's good, but it's not everyone's cup of tea. At Kinesis, we protect your savings with a passive income paid in gold every single month. Just look how much we paid out to our customers last year. Buy gold with a click and start earning gold from day one. Protect and grow your savings with Kinesis. Sign up today. Take it easy, old child.

2:02All right, Andy. It's been two weeks and it certainly feels like it's been a lot longer than two weeks, you know, that have gone by. And it's amazing in these historic times that we're living massive volatility here in the precious metal space and many in the community are holding their breath for this episode asking what is Andrew McGuire seeing following, you know, the gold and silver corrections here in the markets over to you, Andy. Yeah, great to be with everyone. Great timing as well. I mean, we are in what is really a war. It's not just a war that's going on in the globe, but it's also a war that's incorporating gold. And I mean, spoiler alert, have my targets changed? No, absolutely not. But let's have a look. In order of scale, this is really important to understand it is really important. Let's review the active the actors

3:04selling gold this week and their various motives, of course. And to answer a lot of questions, we're going to drill into each of these sell drivers and the opportunities they present. Now, in order of importance, these are the most sizable paper to physical footprints that we're seeing, seeing. And so we'll start with the first one. So leaning in to sell gold would be a natural mechanical inverse relationship between arising US Treasury yields and gold. However, the footprints expose the PPT, the plunge protection team. Yes, the very team has been put in place for war-like events, has been aggressively intervening in synthetic gold, synthetic gold, to fund a suppression, a really of the widening spread between US-facing WTI,

4:09gold oil, and global Brent oil market. So really, that's number one. And we'll drill into it, and the reasons for it and all that kind of stuff. Secondly, of importance, the emboldened wrong at both ends, momentum speculators, who control 80% of all the remaining comics open interest. They've morphed from bubble long into a technically overboard, when we were technically overboard at 56, 26, just a short while ago. And now they're bubble short into Mondays, overboard into Mondays technically and fundamentally oversold conditions. Look at those on the charts in a little while. The third thing is at the risk and oil market traders have been calling in gold hedges to meet margin calls alongside some sovereigns who've been forced to cash in gold

5:15hedges to meet short-term unfactored cash flow dollar shortages, which were created by this war situation affecting the suddenly affecting oil. And the last thing we're looking at we'll be looking at is the the last few remaining naked short long future speculators. And these are the ones that bought into, if you remember the 29th of January to the 2nd of February, we had a $1,200 flash sell-off and it bounced. And these buyers, these speculators, they're now also been fully eliminated. So let's drill into each actor's footprints and then what it tells us. Now historically the PPT steps in to intervene in gold into all major market stress escalations. That's where

6:18they were formed for that purpose. But with physical gold liquidity now in the hands of China and the global south, the PPT is bandwidth. Whereas in the past they had full control, it's now limited to how many leveraged ETF speculators, exchange trade or fund speculators can be flushed alongside the naked short momentums incentivized to take the short side to take the load. Now this added synthetically driven momentum action also for some sovereigns selling to meet some sovereign gold selling to meet dollar funding shortages, which just appeared into a spike in oil prices. But that short-term unfactored disruption has now been realigned, hedged in other words, meaning this so-called correction has now reached an inflection point

7:20where it's becoming too stretched not to be heavily leaned into by a tight for supply physical market. Now a picture is better than a thousand words. Let's take a look at the chart footprints and then we'll align them with the various actors in play. This paper to physical inflection point was triggered on Monday when gold hit very large central bank bids on the approach to the rising gold 4,09200 day moving average, which was a slightly lower, it's rising by about six bucks a day, a slightly lower on Monday. I'm recording this on Wednesday. What it did was trigger inside a short covering, very large size T plus one spot demand at both the subsequent fixes, AMP and the PM fixes. What it did was it illustrated the really provided the first visible sign of returning central bank and sovereign safe haven gold buying into rising oil

8:26prices into the synthetically driven gold price correction. Now while real rates or higher so-called rear rates automates mechanical institutional selling and disincentivizes gold investments, the PPT has been utilizing this natural tailwind to target all remaining speculative longs and in turn to tip the January momentum naked long by mantra, which was here, instigated here, into a naked short momentum driven downside. So bubble territory long here, bubble territory short here. And the big tell here was that the scope of the selling far exceeded plain vanilla ETF liquidations. Now into the 27th day of this conflict, it's clear that alongside speculators some sovereigns have been forced to cash in gold hedges to meet unfactored cash flow

9:29dollar shortages. However this reversed on Monday into this close test of the 200 day moving average, where very large central bank and sovereign related buying was triggered. And just for reference this morning on Wednesday the 200 day moving averages 4,096 and rising about 6 bucks a day. So when this is published on Friday, bit about 18 bucks higher. Now what's interesting is that because this far too obvious target was by no coincidence front run by the PPT, only a fraction of the central bank physical orders were tagged and was certain that global central banks and sovereigns are trailing this all watch 200 day moving average higher, limiting the PPT's downsides scope for more selling. So as I record this episode on Wednesday following what is basically a 27% synthetic

10:29correction from the all time highs into the returning central bank and sovereign buying on Monday, which occurred here, this morning, gold's up over 8% off Monday's lows and I view any further synthetically driven dips will be jumped on by central banks and a lot of physical stackers that I personally know as well. Now while the mainstream media continues talking synthetic gold lower, the feds being caught in an impossible trap triggered by the unfactored and lingering inflationary oil shock, they can't cut rates, but they can't raise rates without accelerating a 36.2 trillion national debt service spiral. Now the only available choices for a trap fed are to monetize or trigger a debt crisis. Under this chart noise liquidity providers now report central

11:31banks and sovereigns are already rebuilding gold assets to front run this precise scenario. It's coming down the pike. Now following Basel III recategorizing spot gold into a first year net stable funding ratio compliant asset, all other global central banks and sovereigns have been converting high beta debasing dollars into inelastic physical gold benefiting from a rising gold price based upon real supply demand fundamentals. Now central banks and sovereigns are price insensitive to short term movements and they were buying gold at 5600, they're continuing to buy gold at the 4100 low as that we saw. Now while we've confirmed reports of some lease gold being put into the market to meet dollar funding shortages such as here Turkey ultimately had to be

12:37they've done this but these these leases have to be bought back and with central banks now underpinning the market these sales will have to be bought back at higher prices. Now these leased positions generate derivative gold sales so whereas net no real physical gold or silver has been put on sale into this 20% synthetically driven gold price correction. However conversely and the reason these bets will have to be paid back at higher prices is the stronger dollar is enabling global central banks to secure more gold and silver ounces for dollars greatly benefiting their ongoing de-dollarizing gold conversions. Now of note liquidity providers report reported this morning that Russia has bought back the 15 tons of gold they sold in January

13:40and furthermore they reported to be strong buyers into the higher dollar gold price. Now at almost and obviously they sold they sold at a higher price and now they're buying back but they're now buying back and they're adding to not only buying back the 15 tons but they're adding to those and and almost certainly as is the PBOC this is an opportunity. Now the price action that we've been experienced since the oil market blew up out of its range has been taken advantage of into a long-standing US-centric hegemonic war on gold. Now once again the PPT has been employing every trick in the book to take full advantage of an otherwise mechanical inverse correlated sell-off. Now while they've had what they've had a tailwind central bank sovereigns and institutional

14:40buyers recognize gold is temporarily deeply underpriced and they're rebuilding their gold assets. Now if the proposed 15 point settlement plan that was proposed I think yesterday and I'm recording this on Wednesday if that fails and it certainly doesn't look very like it's been taken up at this point. Now the PPT will have to find other ways then gold to cap US-facing WTI ahead of the midterms. Now the PPT's oil price suppression mandate is attempting to understate US inflation risks really to delay US Treasury yields spiking higher triggering a full stock market breakdown ahead of the midterms and also the inflationary side of it. It's not looking great if you're having to pay a large amount of money for when you hit the gas pump in America. So it is kind of a US-centric

15:45kind of anomaly. Now the US is an oil rich exporter and their inability to implement a short term war measures at to ban WTI exports which they were proposing and that was really the idea was to keep the US domestic market insulated from this inflationary soaring global price and what that did was evolved into a strategy of releasing oil reserves alongside selling billions equal derivatives to silo the US-facing WTI oil price under the $100 rubric online. Now while WTI has subsequently been able to be capped at 100 and this morning it is back down into less of a look basically 89-90 thereabouts whereas Brent is at 100 as I speak

16:48and Brent sold as high as 1913 which is the highest level since the Russian invasion in 2022. Now by Monday with WTI once again breaching the 100 rubric online which it did Trump backed off their 48 hour energy bombing, ultimatum, also subsequently a backing off the five day pause which has now evolved into a proposed one month 15 point peace plan. However Iran denies such direct discussions are underway and nevertheless all of this is taking the pressure off WTI for now which was really what the the object of this was. Now but regardless from a fundamentally structural perspective alongside severely oversold

17:49conditions into central bank support and the livelihood Trump will need a negotiated settlement to stick stave his midterm chances it looks like the bottoms are now in in both the gold and silver sell-offs. Now war volatility aside central banks and sovereign entities are increasingly aware the Fed is caught in an impossible trap and following the short term dollar funding crisis are now they're now hedging these inevitable risks with gold so the Fed is trapped of course this is now time to start hedging those risks and this will serve to offset the initial mechanical gold to real rate correlations which have been so closely correlated. Now triggered by the unfacted inflationary oil shock which given it'll take years because of the damage that's

18:55been done and in some cases up to five years to repair the infrastructure it's going to take years one way or the other to normalize energy supplies and the Fed as I say can't cut rates but they can't race rates without accelerating a 30 a 36.2 trillion national debt service spiral and that is just the official numbers it's far larger than that. Now the only available choices for the Fed are to monetize or trigger a debt crisis one way or the other something's going to happen this is exactly the cycle inflection point our liquidity providers are now being asked to buy to buy gold to accommodate and under the chart noise central banks and sovereigns are already front running this scenario hence gold buying has stepped up this is the inflate

19:55inflection trigger point for the gold trade to reverse which has always followed every single such derivative physical to physical gold price suppression event gold rallies back recharged there's no speculators on board to rinse so and it makes new highs so let's put this into perspective with the largest ever historical PPT gold price correction let's look at it so here are the footprints that led up to a four year 45 percent PPT driven correction which occurred from here to here now bearing in mind while the scale of this seems muted compared to what we've just witnessed obviously from a scale perspective this is a far less than 27% and with an 8% rally this

20:55which was a four year 40 as 5% PPT driven correction which directly followed the 2008 banking collapse where following a very similar to what we're seeing right now dollar funding blacks one dollar funding shortage evidence gold so really we saw that initial selling that to meet that and again this was hedges being called in so essentially to meet that what that did was essentially as soon as that was done gold demand accelerated into what was really a broken the the fear of another collapse of the broken banking system and this drove gold I mean really they were racing to exchange debt based dollars for gold it drove gold from 680 in 2008 into the 1923

21:562011 highs here and this three year gold accumulation period encompassed a period where the IMF had refused to allow the PBOC to buy 200 tons of its last ever gold sale and if you remember this was the 403 metric tons the last ever sale by the IMF where 200 tons were sold to India and the remaining 203 odd tons was drawn back into inventory for the sole purpose of manipulating the markets or capping gold the reason we know that is because China offered to book to buy the remaining 203.3 metric tons at market and were refused that sale and it was this point in 2010 that the that China opened up its gold market to its citizens and and basically this just to

22:56remember that the house size gold billboards and television adverts to buy gold but the physically driven rally saw gold leaving the west on a one-way journey to China and what it did was disrupt the PPT derivative game exposing the divergence between comics and lbma derivative gold and the shrinking supply began to expose the degree of gold re-hypothication and this was a major problem for the bullion banks so the reason I bring this up is relevant to now fresh off the 2008 banking collapse with faith lost in the system by the end of March 2013 which I've marked here because that was a relevant as a really relevant point to actually look at now so basically this this was the moment that the actually the physical delivery requests theorist the overwhelm the comics and the rbma I mean noticeably and their ability to deliver

24:00into these delivery requests and this is what when we published a client letter that we had which they'd received from ABN Ambrow refusing to allow delivery of his bullion telling and he wanted to cash settle him and this was just the beginning of a slew of similar refusal requests where an openly acknowledged 100 ounce of paper gold backed each physical ounce and it threatened to topple the two big-to-fail banks who had clearly not learned any lessons and remember the televised and still available March 2010 CFTC metals meeting where industry apologists Geoffrey Christian argued the case that a hundred ounces backed each ounce and so what well this was the moment it did actually matter redemption requests that exceeded this 101 to one it did overrun the rbma bullion banks it was a major threat to the fractionally held bullion

25:00banking system and it prompted the now infamous ppt meeting where all the two big-to-fail bullion banks were called in to a presidential meeting on the Sunday night before the first of april officially orchestrated price smash that lasted all the way to 2016 here the price smash has lasted literally six weeks now the reason I draw attention to this last major ppt intervention to put is to put this most recent aggressive muscle memory ppt driven goal correction to context you need to put it into kind of this with a larger picture now throughout this 100% synthetically driven 27% correction from high to low gold and silver have simply been synthetically corolled back into the really therefore months range not the multi-year range we were just looking at

26:08now into this process from a governing paper to physical perspective the action already looks stretched and capitulative just in that short period of time now why does it why does it get resolved so quickly is the question I get because despite the race into dollars and the mechanical inverse goal to rising real yield selling the physical gold horse has bolted the ppt's position concentration camp and it's it's the ppt's position concentration is far less liquid than the western accessible SGE physical supply demand pricing corridor provides a solid physical a hedgeable price now gold is oversold it's also not going on notice that gold hit its most oversold levels since

27:10is November 2024 $2500 equivalent lows however most western analysis fails to account for the western paper to global south physical inflection point but here's the point missed by analyst viewing gold through western lenses including zero hedges analysis gold is doing exactly what it was supposed to do when it was purchased as it purchased originally to hedge a black swan event which we've just had now obviously there is a mechanical relationship between derivative gold and derivative real rates so what are they back by debt but first tier gold provides provided the necessary instant liquidity and that was when all other asset classes failed the gold price

28:14overshoot was caused by the ppt disruptively leaning into the plain vanilla mechanical selloff which in turn has successfully driven the myopic current mainstream media narrative which claims gold has failed as a safe even hedge whereas the global in the global picture it's only the west's focus on derivative gold that is actually being challenged under the covers the entire global south are busy converting overpriced dollars into underpriced physical gold bottom line all the bullion banks who estimated $6,000 gold plus or minus $6,000 gold are all are still projecting prices between six and seven thousand so basically gold did what it was designed to do when the sovereigns

29:17and central banks bought it for a black swan event that is exactly what provided the liquidity and sure we saw and that's what partly drove the seller but it was the ppt that overshoot and leaned into that and overshoot it it's done hey Andrew you had made some comments earlier about silver can you share these because I mean I'm telling you we've got a lot of community members focusing on silver maybe you can share your thoughts on what's going on here yeah absolutely and I've note really was the paper to physical divergent in silver though and while gold suppression antics have also weighed on silver it's now become the wild card that is going to lead gold higher now further evidence the pboc and the generals are sucking silver into china to meet in elastic demand is partly evidenced was partly evidenced on by bloomberg last friday so also noting global inventory shortages

30:27quote china's lofty imports have yet to disrupt the london market thanks to a record inflow of silver into the global trading hub following historic squeeze last year less silver had in exchange traded funds around the world which have dropped this year by more than 1900 tons also freed up more metal now if you recall this was the historic squeeze that they have just referred to to put the current silver supply demand imbalance into context despite this 60 dollar selloff from high to low from february high to monday's 61 to 10 low current shanghai futures exchange in the trees at 12.09 million ounces are barely off their all time 11th of the march 8.1 million ounce lows it illustrates physical demand is both inelastic and synthetically suppressed

31:31the komex is the only source of underpriced silver that can be forced into delivery net of that deliverable shanghai spot silver has averaged a 10 dollar premium 13% higher than unallocated backwardated extremely oversold silver futures so literally the price is currently in fact 10 dollars consistently being 10 dollars here in the 106 level it's currently this with sweet spot is currently 90 silver has not been this oversold since october of 2023 when silver was trading below 21 dollars now these komex registered inventories are being targeted however export um us controls are forcing very large cash settlements so essentially you want to come and buy komex silver there is some export controls in place

32:37and is forcing large cash settlements and and these cash settlements are based upon and agreed related bilaterally settled lbma physical delivery price that's currently annualized at around plus or minus 8% plus of course there's the sundry shipping costs now while these arbitrage margins are thin silver is in such short supply but it's been drained into pboc coffers and while silver is captive to official ppt gold focus interventions the credit providers also report very large size pboc military silver accumulations into the corrective action with very large premiums being paid and this place is silver in the crosshairs for a very strong physical driven rally as this silver demand now moves into competitive war

33:38conditions we watch synthetically oversold silver to lead gold significantly higher watch it it will move it is already starting to outperform we've seen mornings yesterday morning it went into the green even though gold was still being weighed on it's going to be hard to cap it so in summary really other than the the unlikely event that trump calls the Iran war a victory and walks away the damage is done and liquidity providers institutional feedback telegraphs the fed is now forced to choose between obviously QE and a debt default which means bond yields will fall despite elevated oil prices and the dollar will weaken under the war haze which is what we're seeing lick and volatility liquidity providers report the commencement of strong institutional move back

34:40into gold to hedge this unfactored black swan event now it's on the radar what was a curve ball is now on the radar very short term momentum still have the bit between their teeth they control a percent of the reigning open interest but it is at half the levels it was it's at historic multi-year lows but despite and they're leveraged but it's leveraged and but despite assistive margin reductions these actors already in a similar bubble short levels as to when margins were raised when they to pop their their bubble long levels at into the into the February highs now liquidity provider see the mechanical inverse relationship between rising US treasury yields and gold reverse and the ppt forced to ring the register on the momentum shorts before China does

35:42and we've seen a little of that already now we've been tracking the exit of CME and related LBMA unallocated price gold and silver liquidity increasingly flowing into the more representative physically settled SGE benchmark exchanges now commencing April in the ETS will be able to settle prices outside the LBMA at the local Indian spot market price which is a light much closer to the SGE benchmark and as we do attention to in our last episode a lot of these SGE gold and silver transactions will be conducted off the swift radar in the sips China that's the China cross-border interbank interbank payment system and as was highlighted by X Corbin Jeff Curry's last time we looked at it he was discussing the increasingly liquid sips settlement system as being far more suited to transacting oil gold silver and all periodic

36:46table commodity transactions and following tariff sanctioned escalations sips already has been handling all renimbi oil trades and is rapidly gaining global liquidity now as an example Russia sells all its oil to China and India without touching US dollars or swift dodging sanctions cutting friction etc. Curry called it quote a one way revolving door for emerging markets avoiding US penalties and this particularly provides off radar transactions for commodity players facing hoarding supply and geological risks so that's all all of those things are in place now all of the above are now on the front burner and western bullying banks are breaking rank to participate a bottom line China is preparing for a dollar collapse and has in the process of

37:48setting the multi trillion dollar oil energy and commodity sector onto its own rails it is well underway now and in fact what just happened is this big flush has eliminated so much froth that it is really now back into the buy aggressive and we saw that in 2010 the aggressive buy mode that they were in back then when the IMF refused to allow them to buy that last 200 tons now in summary into these war conditions short term nobody knows if something goes wrong I mean I'm a stake a nuclear fallout I mean from a from a from a hit or anything could happen but as it is right now with the Straits of Hormuz still closed as of today

38:49if the so-called 15-point off-ramp planned fails to make progress we would expect higher oil prices and a rising dollar much higher oil prices and a rising dollar however following the initial race to cover dollar funding shortfalls liquidity providers as a firm returning central bank and sovereign physical buying has now returned in very large size into that very close test of the rising 200 day moving average I would view such a dip as a de-dollar rising gift now with underlying physical market support returning they'll spot gold spreads are slowly contracting again they were so wide but they've not yet normalized sufficiently to be reliable that's the first sign to look for for the resumption of the next physical driven leg to much much higher gold as other prices

39:52don't be fooled by the western lens narrative and that just raises the one and only question to end on nothing's changed how much safe haven't physical gold so that you own right now all right that wraps up another episode of live from the vault brought to you by Kinesis money and a big thank you to Andrew McGuire for sharing his deep market knowledge and to you also for tuning in and being a part of this growing global community now if you're new here make sure that you hit that subscribe button tap on the bell so you'll be the first to know when we go live and if you've been with us for a while keep help spreading the word give us a like just hit that like button right now it really helps the algorithm and share this episode with someone who really needs to hear this information that you just won't find anywhere else so get your questions into Andrew McGuire you never know your question may well be selected for our next episode of live from the vault and with that

40:54we'll be back next week with more truth that you just won't find on the mainstream media and until then remember buy physical make sure it's back to one to one and we'll see you right here next time on live from the vault bye for now