Geopolitics and beyond - What's powering oil and gold?

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next?

Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil.

00:19 Introduction

00:41 Our gold and oil forecast

01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices?

2:52 Asia and Western demand

3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings

5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases

6:02 Speculative gold positioning

7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs

8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle?

9:25 Recession risks

10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil

11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go?

12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil?

14:01 The supply and demand picture