Fresh Money Flooding Commodity Markets Points to Sustainable Rally, Not Bubble

with Derek Macpherson, Executive Chairman & Sam Pelaez, President & CEO of Olive Resource Capital

Recording date: 7th September 2025

Olive Resource Capital delivered exceptional returns in September 2025, posting gains of 38-39% for the month and bringing year-to-date performance to 121%. The results significantly outpaced major commodity benchmarks, with both the GDX gold ETF and COPEX copper ETF gaining 20% during the same period.

Executive Chairman Derek Macpherson and President Sam Pelaez attribute the outperformance to strategic positioning ahead of what they characterize as an emerging commodity bull market. Despite allocating only half of assets to precious metals, the fund achieved returns comparable to dedicated gold investment products while maintaining broader commodity exposure.

A critical market dynamic highlighted during their discussion involves the relationship between equity and commodity performance. Gold equities outperformed the underlying commodity by approximately 4x in both August and September, with stocks gaining 20% monthly while gold itself advanced 5-7%. This pattern typically signals fresh capital entering the sector from generalist investors outside traditional commodity circles.

The capital raising environment supports this assessment. Over $1 billion flowed into the sector in a single week, primarily toward pre-production projects. Financings exceeding $100 million generally indicate institutional participation, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of mining development.
Management believes the bull market remains in early stages—approximately the "third inning" using a baseball analogy. Key drivers include central bank buying and US dollar weakness, with gold approaching $4,000 per ounce. Notably, the market has not yet exhibited the speculative excess characteristic of late-cycle behavior.

The investment strategy focuses on continuous position reassessment rather than mechanical profit-taking. Management argues that companies posting strong results may actually be cheaper on a relative basis after gains, given improved fundamentals and higher commodity prices. They cite K92 Mining as an example: purchased at $6 with an initial $15 target, the stock now trades at $18 but may still be undervalued given doubled gold prices and significantly higher sector valuations.

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