Follow the Money | March 2, 2026 | Hour 2

0:00You're having a good time. You're out drinking with the boys. Now it's time to pay the tab. $11,352.47, wait, what? Well, there are court costs, attorney fees, higher insurance costs, damage to your car, do you why fines? Ugh. Not to mention the damage to your social life. Plan a sober ride or pay the price. Drinking and driving costs more than your drinks. It could cost a life. Learn more at What'sTheDamage.org. Brought to you by Virginia DMV. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going. Blending rugged muscle with precision engineering, all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available iForce Max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power, torque, and towing performance and the roomy high-tech cabin keeps you connected on the go. Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path. Agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, a portable JBL speaker,

1:00a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. Where's the mile of the mile of the money? That's where I always say you always follow. Yeah, yeah. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Pauli Howard on V-Send. Welcome in. Thanks for watching. As always on YouTube TV, listening on serious XM channel 158. I heart radio, tuning radio or any of our great affiliates across the country, a lot of college basketball this hour. I'm going to give you a fun metric that you're going to want to dial away. I should say file away for the tournament once it gets here in a couple of weeks selection Sunday now two weeks from yesterday. And we'll go a half an hour with Max Hoffmeyer. He has a great angle himself with some long shots with these conference tournaments that we're going to get into. And I'll tell you the team that somebody reached out to me and said,

2:02that's a gift at that number coming up in a few minutes. You have a list of teams that you want to bet on or against come conference tournament time. Yes. It's for conference tournaments and the actual March Madness tournament. And I would say it qualifies with this team with both. And that's a team that's considered a lock and currently a 7C Utah state. I don't think they're that good and they're not playing good basketball after they had a great non-conference. They lost at home to UNLV. They're out here tomorrow against UNLV. They were blown out at San Diego state. They lost that Nevada. They've had a ton of issue. Good, great program. Respect the program. But they always struggle in March Madness. They only have one win going back. I think the last 20 years in the tournament. And it's a down year for the Mountain West. Again, they might only get one team in. As Lanardi has upgraded New Mexico to the last four in. So that's only two spots for this league. But based on how the bracket comes out. For the Mountain West, I would bet against Utah state in the Mountain West Conference tournament and the actual Madness.

3:04Because they're probably going to be a 7-10 or an 8-9 game also Purdue. What's to like right now? Humans was all over that. Right. Fading them against Ohio state and how bad they've been in their big games at home as well. BYU continues to lose games. Yeah. They had the nice win at home against Iowa state. They have all their issues away from home. Not to mention the slow starts. It seems that they're always every game. Yep. It's too bad. And the Saunders injury too, which is unfortunate. So those are teams about on. Well, by the way, let me have one thing on Utah state. Remember that. Every single year other than San Diego states run. They're unlikely run to the national title game a handful of years ago. That's one of our favorite props to make as soon as they come out on Selection Sunday. And that is Mountain West Conference total wins under. They got a couple of wins last year. Yep. That that's also been an ATM. As I mentioned earlier, the perfect storm. In a great opportunity would be undefeated Miami Ohio against Akron in the Mac conference title game. Knowing Akron needs it to get in.

4:04And with the pressure of trying to go undefeated. And I disagree with these people. I think if they're. What would they be 33 34 and all at that point. They'd be 33 and all at that point. Yeah. They come on. What are we doing here? They have to be in. I think Jerry Palm is wrong about that. I don't think that number is going to be. But they might that's a short number. Oh, my I don't even that was a bad luck. The first time in Akron should have beat him on the road in the first meeting. And Akron is blitzing people with it could actually be like a pick. I think there's going to be sharp money on Akron in that game. Yeah. I could see that happening. Oh, by the way, so this is a I miss this part with JBT storming earlier today. They had Jerry palm on. And this is a message from Andrew listening to the show listening to all of it today. He came on and said that Miami of Ohio will not be in unless they win their tournament also. He said the lowest SOS team to ever make the tournament was in the 200 and Miami is currently 346 with the SOS.

5:06Well, they've never. They've never not selected a team with fewer than three losses though either. That's the other thing. It's just it's just to be terrible for the sport. And in an all-time black eye, I think. So they can't do that. They can't do that. Give me this. You can't be 33 and one and not get an ant large considering the garbage. It's on the bubble. What's the loss against Akron like in the Mac title game? Is it like do they get beat at the horn? Is it a tight game all the way through? Does Akron beat him by a dozen? Well, that's the other thing though too about who these guys are stealing all the bids anyways. You didn't let St. I'm not St. Louis. You didn't let. What was the Mac team, the Missouri Valley team we talked about. They got jobbed. Was it Indiana State? Yeah, that's the sick of more. So they're not even getting the benefit of the doubt anymore. I mean, it's only a couple because I don't consider the West Coast a. If you want to say it's a mid major league, but I can't call St. Mary's quote of mid major. No, you can't. They're out there in it in the mix every year and usually ranked. But it's who are we? The Atlantic 10 is likely to be a one bid league.

6:09If St. Louis wins it, I think VCU is a bet on moving forward. They're on the bubble. And they could get hot. But unlikely to get in at 13 and 3 and 22 and 7, where are the bids coming from? No one wants to see just all power teams in this thing, especially from an at large standpoint. Right. So that's another reason why I think they're going to get the benefit of the doubt if that happens too. And so are we also going to have coaches sit there and tell us that the tournament needs to get expanded to 72 or more teams in the world. And then so if that's the scenario that's going to take place with the sport, does those bids also go to power five teams or were they going to open it up to give them to like mid majors. That's not going to happen. They're not going to make the tournament bigger to keep the mid majors in it. They're going to give them to the Auburns of the world who right now absolutely unequivocally should not be in. But you have their former coach on national TV screw Miami basically saying that. And my team should get in the tournament. And so I got that just I mean, but do you think them sleazy man? Yeah.

7:09I agree with the AD shouldn't be allowed on television because he's not objective. He's saying we and his son coaches Auburn. That's right. I mean, he's a pitch man for the schooling for the league. Yeah. So do you think the Mountain West is a mid major league? I do. You do. Oh, yes, I do. Okay. So it's all it is. Utah states the only lock. And then saying, saying Lewis, I think it's a lock too. If you want to count the A 10 is a mid major. So then we're down to Santa Clara, New Mexico and Miami of Ohio. Well, and that's it. Oh, that's who's on the bubble. That's it. They and here's what the committee will do. Again, as we were reminded a couple of weeks ago, I don't remember the guests we talked to. But they said watch what they're going to do. They'll put St. Mary's against Miami in the first round. They will find a way to manipulate the bracket. So when Miami gets in, if they do or these other teams you just talked about, they'll put them in the first round because they don't want to, you know, that's also a home run for the playing games. If you want to boost some ratings, put a team in there.

8:10That's 33 and one taken on an Ohio state and then put Indiana against Santa Clara. Something like that. How about Miami against Albert? That's that's that's a home run too, right? There you go, boys. Good. What's your favorite bracket so far? Look at the sun belt. Yeah, this one's a doozy. It is every single year. Look at the format. Now this is going to be chaos. I think there was a six-way tie for second place. So this thing's wide open. But how some of these go and this is where, you know, you could get fatigue. Team could get worn out. And if a team from, you know, seven, eight, nine, ten seats, something like that, and they win all these games four or five days, but that, that is, that's a crazy bracket. So you're telling me, I'm looking all the way to the left. It starts tomorrow with two different games. Those teams could play seven games in seven days. I don't think it's every day. I think there's a couple days off, but that's, you have that, you have that with the big boys though. Oh, no, no. I don't think so. I think. Is it every day? It's every day the way it looks. Oh, man. This is the one with a one and two seat.

9:10Get a bite of the semis. Right. Yeah. Right. Right. So it's it's convoluted and crazy. But you have that scenario with the big boys too, where these, these big conference tournaments start on Tuesdays. So if you're in the way back, you might be playing Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Mm-hmm. If you get hot, get hot. We did this in the first hour with a couple of conference tournaments. I'll bring it back here. Bart Torvik again does a great job with his site and he does something on there called under funniletics. You can do tournament sims. So he simulates a tournament over and over and over again to give you the odds and then you can kind of like look at the betting board and say, well, if I'm going to go by his betting numbers or his overall percentage is maybe the betting numbers will make a little bit of sense. So in the Metro Atlantic, Mary Mack is the favorite. He gives him a 26.6% chance to win. That equals plus 276 DK had plus 310 on Mary Mack last night, a buddy of mine. Remember when I bet them, I think it was two Fridays ago when we were back from vacation. They won and over double over time minus three. I told you that I have a M double AC buddy who has season tickets to Seattle.

10:14He follows us lead quite closely. He reached out to me and said, Mary Mack, in this range is an absolute gift. I saw. Yeah. I was surprised by the number two. There was a plus three 50 out there for a second, cool, but to go 17 and three and win the game, win the league by three games that you rarely see a price like that. So I grabbed that. I put that one away. That was my my first bet that I made overall and it regrets. If he got that, well, I'm not congrats, but nice job. If you grab the early number on Navy, is that got as like minus 210 minus 220, but that opened minus 120 and they only lost one game and conference and closed on a 12 and 380 S run. They blitzed people in the Patriot league and I don't know if it's factored in enough. They're going to be playing on their home floor. They do it the right way in a Patriot league. Yeah. So they can be getting all home games and they just played Colgate and ran them out in the Navy's one 13 in a row. Congrats to those of you who grab Navy minus 120 had that number popped when I, the first

11:14number that I saw was minus like almost 210 on them, like you brought up, I was a little bit late to the party on the Patriot. I'd love it. It's not an automatic winner. Nothing is, but I'd love to have 120 in pocket. That is a phenomenal number. And how about the West Coast, then Torvitt gives Gonzaga 60.2% chance to win it. That's minus 151. They're minus 210. His numbers will translate to St. Mary's at plus 303. I was actually surprised that he made St. Mary's where they're at. Or is that because they're going to have to what do you mean with their number? Yeah. Okay. Let me give you this. The one seed has played the two seed in the championship game 16 to the last 17 years. Oh man. Estonishing. And it's also bad news for Santa Clara. Yeah. If they're the last team in or in the last four in the bracket, St. Mary's can beat them in a third time in the third game, I should say. No, sure. Absolutely. But it would be unfortunate if that's when, when it in absolutely or if you lose your

12:16out though, I think the body of work is strong enough for Santa Clara. Download the free upside app promo code network started in real cash back on gas, groceries and dining, just open the app, claim a cash back offer at a location near you shop as usual and earn real cash back, five million people using it already. One of the easiest ways to save money on everyday purchases, your groceries, gas and dining. And you can cash out directly to your bank account paypal or gift card, download the free upside app now code network code network and get 25 cents back per gallon on your first tank. Upside.com for details code network upside.com. Get the app now. All right. Tough enough to be one seeds this year and Florida, but throw this into the mix. It becomes even more difficult, especially with Arizona. They're great at doing this in offense and limited it the other way. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline.

13:18And now so can you be some programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with visa and pro. The average cost of a D wine Virginia is $11,352 and 47 cents, drinking and driving costs more than your drinks, learn more at what's the damage not org brought to you by Virginia DMV. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I force max engine Tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving.

14:23The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. This is follow the money on V-San. All you references earlier in the show, Jeff Benson here at circa on Twitter said that Duke Michigan, Arizona, Florida against the field, those four teams would be right around minus two dollars to win the tournament this year. And we're seeing big time separation now. We have four weeks, but you throw Florida into the current mix right now along with those other three teams and they're clearly the best here in college basketball. And then there is a drop off. And I have said a couple of times on the show today again, I'm, you know, give me a one

15:25seed to win the tournament and I can't wait to see what the sum of seeds to make the final four will be this year dollar 80 at Caesars, Will Hill, yeah, will a one seed win it all. Okay. Up and available. Yep. And Leonardo has been all that on that all year that there's a big gap between the one and the two seeds. So of all of the analytical sites, you know, look with the angle. He ties in Torvik, Eric Haslam, Greg Peterson here at Vsyn. By the way, when you're a Vsyn pro subscriber, you can see Peterson's numbers every single day throughout the entire college basketball season and his right ups on the games as well. Vsyn.com slash subscribe. There was a tab at the very top that says Greg Peterson's numbers. So there you go. Evan Maya. Maya is another one. He has a metric that he tracks called kill shots and a kill shot is a team that goes on a 10 nothing run. And then he tracks how many they've had throughout the entire year, what they average per game and then also how many 10 point runs they can see to the opposition.

16:28So the most kill shots this year, 10 nothing runs, at least 10 nothing runs are from Iowa state. They have 38. They average 1.31 kill shots per game. But here's the thing they've conceded 13. So it's coming at some point they're going to hit you with the 10 nothing run. There's also a decent chance they're going to give up a 10 nothing run. St. Louis has had 36. They've allowed five Gonzaga 35. They've allowed 12 by the way. They just don't do it for me this year. No, I'm not saying that because of the same Mary's loss. I mean, they blew all Kentucky by 40. That was by far in a way. I think they're most impressive showing that Kentucky was in a funk at that time. Well, the Portland losses troubling too. But yeah, just to see that kind of record and body of work with could be like 30 and three in a four seed that would be surprising. But not a lot of people talking about them. That's the other thing. So again, you might not know when that kill shot is coming, but the teams that have that

17:28spurred ability the most Michigan has 35 10 nothing runs this year. They've only allowed three. So that's 1.1 kill shots per game and they've. They don't concede. I mean, 0.1 allowed per game Houston has had 33. They've allowed 11 dukes had 32. They've given up six, but here's your big boy. And he tweeted this out when they went on a 10 nothing run against Kansas on Saturday. I think they hit Kansas and that game with a 16 nothing and a 19 nothing run. They have 31 kill shots on the year. Arizona's allowed one. That's it. You like him tonight? Does Iowa state respond? Well, let me let me flip it to you. Can you see yourself back in Iowa state in this game? No, no. I think they're fade material moving forward. That was pretty ugly. What happened against Texas tech over the weekend? Yeah, the other thing. You mentioned to is Duke and continue to just blow people out every game impervious to bad spots.

18:29Leonardi also said nothing to worry about. They have the one number one overall seed locked up as they're nine and a half against NC state. Well, you can't say that. How was that? How are they locked up? What if they were to stumble here and in the conference tournament and either Arizona and Michigan runs the table? Yes, they've done enough and the head to head to play a factor. I will say this Duke is, Duke's obviously been right there with them. That was impressive against Virginia. They exposed them. They absolutely killed that team. Yep. And they are, they're way better than I thought. And I've had a very high opinion on Duke pretty much the entire year. Like anybody. I mean, I don't think they were, I should say this. Let me rephrase. I didn't think for the longest time they were as good as last year's team. The numbers will tell you now that they probably are. And even Coach K came out and said today that, uh, boozer's freshman season. He said he's clearly not. It's him talking. So he's going to take a side. But he called boozer easily the best freshman in the country. I believe he said it's maybe even better than Flag's last season. I, I don't think this Duke team is as good as last year because you also have to factor

19:32in what we're watching with Khan Kanepal now in his rookie year. I do it was also, yeah, an assassin last year was underrated. Yeah. They could really score it too. Yep. We have two angle plays. That's great. Uh, unfortunately, what happened Saturday, first losing day for Luke. But the first game got there and then three losses in a row, but we're back with, we're now an updated play with the angle Cleveland state becomes a play now. If they're an underdog, Cleveland state against IU Indie. How was IU Indie favor? That's a good question. As the horizon league starts tonight. So Cleveland states a play and Lamar is a play tonight. They'll keep it going. Well, hold on, is Lamar still a play or do that flip completely? He's moving the number, too. Do you see that mercy? Hurts went to two and a half and there's no doubt he's moving the number. Yeah. Here's what happens when Luke, when Luke puts out a play on X at least a couple of books. Now they're getting, I think either they're following or they're getting in and dated with bets and the number, that number actually gets locked up or it goes away.

20:35Or at least a couple of minutes. I'm by the way, in this IU Indie game against Cleveland state total is 168 and a half. The first time they played, it was 92 89. Yeah. Do we get a little bit more of a tournament field to it tonight? Where they're a little bit tighter, events takes over a little bit and they're not going to get that many points. I don't think I can go over. Well, you got now it's a tournament game, though. So you have the scramble points. And again, this only happens in college basketball where if you're down 12 with a minute and your season's over with a loss, they'll keep following. They will start early and they'll keep going. And they might start with a minute 30 and who knows when the coach calls the dogs off. I've seen teams follow down 14. So it also comes down to the scramble points, too, in that one. Have you been able to find or make a case for a long shot or a team out there a little bit 8, 9, 10, 11, a one or some of this. Oh, we're going to have that coming up in about 10 minutes with Max Hoffmeier. Good breakdown. Right. If you do some dig digging and they play, I think it's Friday, but the big South gets underway

21:40and high point went 15 and one in league. They were excellent. But Charleston Southern plays Winthrop. In the two seven, they just played and Southern beat them. And if you dive in to their resume in the body of work, horrible record and over time, horrible record and close games. Like we're talking, I think he said, Oh, and five and over time and one and six in games decided by two, three points or fewer. So 35, the one in that range. Now you play in the two seed. So it's going to be tough right off the bat. But you already knocked off Winthrop. You just played him and you saw that, you know, at least you've been involved in all these games, even though you're 15 and 16 on the season. I was hoping that Max would have a long shot in the summit at the top. Pretty heavy north of Kota State 24 and seven. Well, that's hard to get there. I know. In that league, yeah, or championship game Sunday, by the way, 14 and two in conference play.

22:40St Thomas, the Tommy's 23 and 8, 12 and 4 overall. Both those teams are below two to one to win it. So that's going to be very difficult. There's only one other team above 500 in conference plates north to Kota. I'm not going to say that this team is the long shot I had circled, but oral Roberts is nine and 22 on the year, only four and 12 in conference play. They're higher than a hundred to one to win it. They, I'm not even going to include the Kansas City win over the weekend. Cause KC is maybe the worst team or one of the worst teams in college basketball. They also beat Denver last Thursday by 22. They beat South Dakota, who was eight and eight in conference play. Um, there's got to be a team like that that can maybe not that deep of a cut that we're playing here on the jukebox, but, um, some maybe that team that he low located there at 30, 30, five to one is somebody that you can get behind. How about you? Did you circle anybody or the Charleston Southern was intrigued and you made a good point. I think it would have to be come out of the sunbelt. Based on how when you look at the pricing, you know, a lot, um, I think it was Burke or Cohen made the case and the guys are doing a great job and getting ahead of it.

23:44Like 48 hours notice on every conference tournament preview, maybe app state. That's six to one because that's the league where you got a six way tie for second, um, well, unprecedented, right? All these teams were 11 and seven and league Troy got the one seat to 12 and six. So to look where Troy's your one seat to 12 and six, even though they get a bite of the semis, and you're going down only a couple games back as James Madison would be like the eight or the nine. Sick it about maybe Missouri and the SEC to make a run. They can score. They put up a lot of points 80 plus and a lot of their games. They just beat Vandy. They that's going back a couple of weeks. They lost at Arkansas by eight. No shame in that they beat Tennessee last Tuesday. And, uh, you know, again, the midst of the state doesn't really qualify, but they beat them and pounded them by like 24. Like somebody I think is going to go on a run. I think that is going to be a very volatile conference. It's, you know, the Alabama types can, if they hit 223s, they're probably going to win the entire thing every game.

24:45But that's easier said than done. And maybe there's a team like Missouri. I think they can go on a run. Cause I don't think the SEC is close to where it's been in recent years. I think something could happen in arch madness too. I like Belmont and they can score. But I think you could see a team pulling upset in the Missouri values. They're all pretty close and bunched up. That because Murray State was playing well for so long and they actually finished 12 and eight and a league like a Northern Iowa or a Valpo or someone like that or, you know, Illinois, Chicago, more college basketball. Next, Max Hoffmeyer on the program. We will get into the card tonight and he'll make a reasonable case for some long shots to win conference tournaments here on follow the money. It's recent. These sports, but he knows. This is follow the money on V.

25:51Welcome back. Hardcore college basketball today. As you would expect and moving forward for the rest of the month of March. And right now that continues as we go out to the progressive guest line. Max Hoffmeyer joins the program now. He does a great job with shot quality bets. And also on X at Hoffey 81, 21 Max going to talk to you again. My man, how are you today? I'm doing great now that it's March, best time of the year. It can't be better. Yep. Spot on you had some great breakdowns by the way on Twitter that we're going to discuss here in the next 30 minutes. And also you're doing a great job with the previews on YouTube as well. Before we get into any of that, how about tonight's card? You have an angle yourself here and what's taking place in the Southland. Please share with us. Yeah, so the Southland shaping up for a very interesting ending to the regular season here tonight. And you know, credit for them playing these games on Monday, taking advantage of the smaller slates, get some eyes on the conference. More teams need to do that. But on Saturday, SF Austin, they clinched the one seed with a win thus,

26:53you know, slotting McNeese into the two. And now both these teams, they have to go on the road now in kind of a tough little sandwich spot before starting the conference tournament. Now the, you know, I played Nickel State plus 10 and a half. That one's pretty straightforward. Like I said, purely situational. They're getting McNeese who's already slotted in on the two because even if, even if they were both the win and tie here, McNeese or SF Austin does have the tiebreaker for the one seed already locked up. Now the incarnate word plays pretty fascinating because this is more than just SF Austin who's celebrating a conference victory in one seed after Saturday. The Southland, they only take eight teams and incarnate word is currently one of three teams competing for that last spot with Lamar and Houston, Christian being the other two. And I'm sure a lot of your viewers may, you know, be familiar with the Lamar and Houston Christian game tonight as that applies to the angle that Luke has

27:53been pushing lately. But the loser of that game obviously eliminated. They're not going to get that eight seed, but the winner is not necessarily in because they would actually, or excuse me, the winner's not in because incarnate word. If they win tonight, they would actually have the tiebreaker over whoever comes out of that game because they're all one in one verse each other. And the tiebreaker then turns into your record against the top teams, which would be SF Austin and if incarnate word wins tonight, that would be a win over SF Austin, thus giving them the tiebreaker. So I played incarnate word plus eight. It's a win in your end situation here for that last spot. So yeah, with elimination on the line, I think it's a great spot here to take. I don't totally agree. Great breakdown. Good find there. That is excellent. Hardcore, baby. How about your case for Charleston Southern? They play in the big South Friday morning against Winthrop. Tell people what you tweeted last week before the game and wouldn't you know what

28:56they went out and beat Winthrop? Yeah. So this Charleston third team really caught my attention because at the point, I tweeted last Thursday before that Winthrop game, there were four in 10. The problem was five of their 10 losses, half their losses have been in overtime. They've lost so many close games and they're now two and six in games, decided by two possessions or less after that Winthrop win last week. And that's who they play in this first matchup and Winthrop actually lost in that game, Logan Duncombe, their starting center, 18 points, nine rebounds per game. He actually went out with a foot injury and his status is up in the air. I haven't seen anything. He didn't play in the next game. So I'm not really sure what his status is, but that also gives Charleston Southern some value here. If he's not able to go or if he's not 100% and their play style, I really like the way they play. It's a good style to knock off someone better than you. They're first and offensive three point frequency and first new defensive three point frequency.

30:01Not only are they going to take more threes than you, they are the best shooting team right now in the big South at about 36%. And you know, if they're going to take away threes from the opponents, obviously you're going to give up a bunch of twos and they've done really well defending inside the arc. They're first in two point defense, only allowing 47% and Kenpon added a new stat this year, average two point distance and they're actually second in the conference as well. So not only are they taking you off the three point line of their forcing you in the tough long twos. And that's why their two point percentage has done so well. So I think Charleston Southern, if you can find like a 30 to one is a nice little dark horse here to win the big South. Okay. That's a great breakdown. So is that you can find that? Paulie, I think you said 35 to one as well. So when you were doing this breakdown on it last week, did you actually have that and maybe number in your mind or maybe a little bit lower than that? You think that to yourself, if they're 25 to one or in that neighborhood, I got a bet on. Yeah, anything above 20 to one, I was going to take them.

31:02I was actually, you know, kind of hoping they, they, not that I wanted them to lose, you know, it's nice to see that they won. But if they did end up losing those games because they were four and 10 at the time, you know, I was kind of hoping to get like 50 or 60 to one. But yeah, I still like Charleston Southern here, especially like I said, with Winthrop's big band status up in the air, I think it's definitely worth a look, not just to win the conference, but also on the spread as well. And if you do like anybody else in Winthrop's, you know, quadrant, you know, maybe like Randford as well, you know, creates a little trickle down effect. You can go that route too. Okay. We also have the horizon beginning. That's IU Indie starting today against Cleveland State. That game is one that qualifies for the angle now as well. A Ben MGM Cleveland State is plus one and a half. You like Robert Morris here. You can find them at plus 320 in that neighborhood. Why do you like them to win the horizon? Yeah, this conference has a little bit of everything. Like you said, the playing game tonight, the round one games are on campus.

32:03And then they do a little reseeding here and head out to Indie. I like this Robert Morris seem a lot because they're a great rebounding team. They're number one in the horizon, both offensive rebound rate and defensive rebound rate. And you know, that's a big factor in why they were able to punch the horizon ticket last season. Another thing that's helped them is their ability to play away from home. Like I said, eventually they're going to have to head to Indie if they want to win this one. And Robert Morris are 7-4 on the road versus 6-3 here at home. So they're very balanced and their game can travel. So I like that as well for these conference tournament neutral games. They're also playing their best ball at the right time. You know, they come into the conference tournament here on a nice little seven game win streak and would better time to be finding a groove than right now. So and if they were to meet up with one seed right, right state in the final, they match up pretty well with them. They're already 2 and 0 over right state on the year. And I do think they'd be a slight favorite over them. So I went ahead and took Robert Morris plus 320.

33:05I think it's come down a little. I still like, you know, plus 250 or higher. OK, on the card tonight, one more game here. Max Hoffmeyer's our guest shot quality bets. And he is on the progressive guest line. This number has moved up a tick, but you're involved in the Montana state game as they take on Northern Arizona. Who do you like? And what number do you think is still worth betting if it's available? I still like it at minus 6 and a half. This was once again, at this point in the season, I'm pretty much just looking for, you know, any situational spots I can get in Montana state does have an outside chance to get a share of the big sky if Portland state who has lost back to back games, or they've really been struggling to put this conference away. And, you know, Northern Arizona has just been terrible of late and not in good form at all. So I did end up playing Montana state minus 5 and a half. I think I think you can find like minus 6 and a half out there still as well. I think they take care of care of business here on the road.

34:07Is that Eastern Washington line fishy to you? They have just so the thing with the Eastern Washington, they have just been red. How in the world that February was insane. The three point variance was crazy. I've kind of just been waiting for it to fade, but it hasn't. So I stayed on the sideline here. I mean, if they continue with the February splits, there's no reason to think they don't cover this one too, but I'm just waiting for it to eventually crash down. And, you know, I fear that might happen in March, here when the tournament starts. Max, nothing for you tonight in the Duke NC State game or Arizona. I would say it is that just because Duke and Arizona, you're maybe afraid to fade them or what, why are you staying away from both those games? I didn't like that. I was state needs the bounce back off that loss. But I will say if I had to play, I would take Arizona. I was state really struggled on the road. And if you want to bounce back, this is not the place to do it. In Arizona, you know, after that tough February stretch,

35:07they just recently got healthy too. So you definitely don't want to be playing at Arizona when you need the bounce back after a home loss to a tech tech team without JT top in. So if I had to play, I would take Arizona. Now, the Duke NC State game is the biggest stay away game for me. This NC State team has just been so up and down. I don't know what to do with them. In the month of February alone, this team lost to Louisville by 41. And then they beat North Carolina by 24. They lose to Virginia by 30 and then lose at Notre Dame, who's been terrible, who Duke just beat by 50 at Notre Dame or whatever. So NC State, big stay away. I didn't want to know what to do with that game. Yeah, I'm personally a little afraid because how these teams at the very top of the country are trending as well. I mean, Duke pummeling everybody. Arizona now recent games, pummeling everybody, Michigan bounce back and Florida. They're an absolute steam roller right now. So it's like, okay, these are big numbers. And guess what, if you're betting those dogs,

36:08you're losing pretty much all those games. We're going to continue talking more college basketball with Max Hoffmeier, follow him on X at Hoffy 81-21. Shot quality bats will dive into some of these other tournaments that are starting this weekend or this week, I should say, in college, you have to find out who else he likes with these attorneys going on. And follow the money. It's recent, these sports betting network. [♪ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [♪ You're having a good time. You're out drinking with the boys. Now it's time to pay the tab. $11,352.47, wait, what? Well, there are court costs, attorney fees, higher insurance costs, damage to your car, do you why fines? Ugh, not to mention the damage to your social life. Plan a sober ride or pay the price. Drinking and driving costs more than your drinks. It could cost a life. Learn more at What'sTheDamage.org.

37:09Brought to you by Virginia DMV. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going, blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available iForce Max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power, torque, and towing performance and the roomy high-tech cabin keeps you connected on the go. Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path. Agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. This is Follow the Money on V-Send.

38:11Get close to the World Cup and a larger than life experience and an incredible giveaway here at Circa. One lucky winner gets a two-night stay, a VIP cabana for the games at stadium swim, $500 in credit, $250 in food and beverage, limo transportation, cocktails at Legacy Club, five weeks with the World Cup, starts mid-June, enter now and kick it off right at Circa. For giveaway details, visit CircaLosVegas.com and get ready to win a larger than life World Cup championship experience only at Circa. CircaLosVegas.com. We continue talking college basketball, conference tournaments with Max Hofmeier, shot quality bets is the website, does a great job. Also he's doing tournament previews on YouTube that you can find when you search Max a million bets with the video breakdowns. Let's go to the Ohio Valley as a couple of teams here finished 15 and five and league play Tennessee State they're the short shot at plus 220 more head state. They're four to one UT Martins ahead of them

39:13at plus 370 in Southeast Missouri State with the same number at four to one here. Who did you like when you were digging into this conference, Max? Yeah, I ended up playing Tennessee State here in the Ohio Valley. This is a little like mini sunbelt, I would say as far as they have the gauntlet style but it's not necessarily a stairway to seven like the sunbelt you could play seven games and seven days technically OVC, the max you can play is four games and four days. The reason why I went Tennessee State though is because I think the top half is more, I would say obvious as reflected in the market here Tennessee State's the betting favorite as the one seed but the second betting favorite is UT Martin who's the four and so it's pretty likely that we get a semi final matchup between Tennessee State and UT Martin and Tennessee State they're already 2-0 on UT Martin. They match up really well because UT Martin they push around the OVC with great offensive

40:15rebounding and forcing a bunch of turnovers but Tennessee State, they're one of the best in the conference that's taken care of the ball. They do their job on the defensive glass and they themselves will force turnovers and UT Martin is the most turnover prone team in the Ohio Valley. So I'm pretty confident in Tennessee State to make the final so that's why I went that route because the bottom side of the bracket, I mean you could make a case for any of these teams. I tried the right off little rock but they're really good at three point shooting so if they get hot, Lyndon Wood as the six they've beaten everybody in front of them. Everybody on the bottom, the other end of the conference has beaten each other. So I thought that was more wide open. So I took Tennessee State and then if I don't end up liking the finals matchup, I can maybe hedge out of it there. Okay, how about Arch Madness which starts Thursday and I believe every game went under last year or after the opener and it's been an underparadise going back in St. Louis. Yeah, I actually think it was like two years ago,

41:17I saw a decent tweet about Arch Madness Unders and I bookmarked it far out of the way and yeah, I played every game last year. The first game, Indiana State out of the shoot went over and then after that, it was nothing but Unders even playing beaten down total like because then they started adjusting. Those were still going under. So yeah, this is just a major on whatever it is about the arena, the shooting, the background because they played the same place every year. So what that tells me though is not just, are we going to bet Unders but when you're picking a winner here and I haven't done a deep dive yet on this one but I'm going to be looking for teams that don't rely as much on three point shooting here. Which teams are good at taking it to the rack maybe getting to the line. So yeah, so a team that's maybe super three point heavy like a Belmont, they're a great shooting team. It might just take one off night or off day shooting for them to trip up in that one. So I would be looking at somebody who's maybe not three point dependent.

42:19So you just go with the full game. With the Unders, do you do anything else? Do you play first halves at all second halves or is it just, that's the game you lock it in and that's it. Yeah, with the first half markets typically not opening up to the day of anyways. I'm usually just, yeah, I try to get in overnight. I just get in on the full game under and go from there and I tell myself every year even when they adjust, like I literally wrote down on a note after they adjust, don't overreact. Like still, still take it until, you know, it doesn't work. That's been great going back five, 10 years. It's been that long. It's really incredible. How about the sunbelt where you were all over this too and there was a six-way tie for second place? Yeah, and if you're not familiar with the way this one works, yeah, I just call it a gauntlet style. I don't know what the actual terminology is, but yeah, this bracket format, this was meant for conferences like the WCC where you've got, you know, a consecutive St. Mary's

43:22that dominated every year. You want them to represent your conference but you want to limit the amount of games so they don't trip up. The sunbelt, you know, this is the fun belt for a reason and it's not just this year. Last year, there was a four-way tie for first. So this year, we got a six-way tie for second and Marshall, you know, has the same record is Arkansas State and Arkansas State would have to play five games compared to Marshall's just two. But as far as picking a winner in this one, I would look to somebody in the bottom half of the bracket. I went South Alabama and Arkansas State even though they'd have to play each other. I just think the three-seated Coastal Carolina and the two-seated Marshall, I think those are weaker than what's on the other side with like Troy and App State. All right, very good. Max Hoffmeyer's our guest. He's on the Progressive Guest Line. Follow him on X at Hoffee 81-21. We've had this discussion several times on the show so far today, talked to Seth Greenberg about it. We played the clip from Bruce Pearl. Of course, you know what he's gonna say. He wants Miami out with a loss.

44:23He wants his former team in, obviously. Where do you stand with that? Yeah, I don't know how this is really taken everyone by storm this week. I don't know why, why can't we just enjoy the Miami Ohio story and accept that you know what? Even though, medically, they might not grade out. Travis Steel said they tried to schedule teams, whether that's true or not. But yeah, this Miami Ohio team, let's not act like Auburn, because obviously Bruce Pearl is gonna be an advocate for Auburn, not only his former team, but his son is the coach. Let's not act like Auburn didn't start the year off barely beating Bethune Cookman in overtime. Like if we're gonna nitpick, we got a nitpick both ways. Like it's so hard. I mean, even like look at you Cincinnati, who's close to me. They lost to Eastern Michigan, a Mac team at home. Like we can't, you can't have it both ways. Why can't we just accept the fact that, you know, Miami Ohio, their schedule's been full of landmines

45:26and they've dodged them and we need to reward them, put them in and it's really not a big deal because in the tournament, you know, if they do lose in the first round, we're not gonna remember that. We're gonna remember, you know, whatever else else, they're gonna be some different narrative in March madness. But if Miami Ohio does win a game or maybe even goes on a run in March madness, that would be an absolutely awesome story. So yeah, I just, I'm kind of fatigued with this argument, just they've done enough and they deserve to be in. Yeah, I mean, Miami Ohio is the reason why we have fallen in love with this tournament for the last 40 years. It's not a stupid team from the SEC. It's not even at 500 in their own league. Stop it with this crap already. And there's also this, the cheering top, they're fun. They're exciting and they scored a ton of points. How about that? Yeah, they're playing at a nice pace. They shoot a lot of threes. They're absolutely fun. And I hope, I hope they do finish undefeated and then I hope they do get Akron in the championship.

46:28I think that was a fun game last year. And I think, you know, that would be absolutely electric as well. And, you know, why not a two-bed Mac, even if Akron does end up winning that tournament? And the pricing and spreads would be absolutely intriguing in that one. Because Akron's gonna be favored in that game and in that conference tournament. But, you know, Miami Ohio might just be a team of destiny here. Yeah. I've said several times so far on the show today as well. Another thing I'll throw at you, it feels a lot like last year when you look at the overall net ratings and how these one seeds are playing. I don't know, man. I think it's gonna be pretty chalking the final four. How about you? Yep, I absolutely think it's gonna be chalk madness as well. I did bookmark last year. The favorites were very good in the first two rounds. And I think we get something like that again. Even more so, the top of the league is evolving so much. Even if you take this year's top four, Arizona Duke, Michigan and Florida and compare them to the last couple of years, you know, these would all be like the best team

47:29in the last four years. So it's ridiculous. And we should be in store for another great elite final four and on run. Yeah, we totally agree with that. Great job, Max. Thanks so much for the time today. We really appreciate that. Good luck tonight in this week, okay? Absolutely. Thanks for having me, guys. Thank you. Well done, Meyer. Shot quality bets is the website. And you can get his YouTube videos when you search max a million bets as well on the progressive. Well, he loses credibility when he says we max does. Oh, but part about taking a shot. And in the other, it's just a shocking comment to me from a guy who used to coach at the mid major level. And you know how hard it is to win games. Max is great with the Bethune Cookman. But it's like, you know, Bruce, you lost the deal in the first round of the tournament. By the way, do you go to dismiss a team at a great story, 33 and all by a guy who coach for a long time is outrageous. Do you think Bruce Pearl ever had a difficult time scheduling power five episodes when he was at Wisconsin, Milwaukee? Yeah, especially when they went to the sweet 16.

48:30The year after, I'm sure we'll touch on the NBA NHL schedule is coming up next. Denver is 13 and one on the season in this situation. They're facing tonight details coming up next. You're having a good time. You're out drinking with the boys. Now it's time to pay the tab 11,352 dollars and 47 cents. Wait, what? Well, there are court costs, attorney fees, higher insurance costs, damage to your car, do you why finds? Not to mention the damage to your social life. Plan a sober ride or pay the price. Drinking and driving costs more than your drinks. It could cost a life. Learn more at what's the damage.org brought to you by Virginia DMV. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going. Blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time-tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability

49:32with the available iForce Max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power torque and towing performance and the roomy high-tech cabin keeps you connected on the go. Or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path. Agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control, portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places.