Final One Standing “They are expected to win this Premier League!” | Can Arsenal win the quadruple?

0:00This podcast is sponsored by IQBAR. I've got good news and bad news. Here's the bad news. Most protein bars are packed with sugar and unpronounceable ingredients. The good news? There's a better option. I'm Will and I created IQBAR plant protein bars to empower doers like you with clean, delicious, low sugar brain and body fuel. IQBars are packed with 12 grams of protein, brain nutrients like magnesium, and lion's mane, and zero weird stuff. And right now you can get 20% off all IQBAR products, plus reshipping. Try our delicious IQBAR sampler pack with seven plant protein bars for hydration mixes and for enhanced coffee sticks. Cleaning ingredients, amazing taste, and you'll love how you feel. Refuel smarter, hydrate harder, caffeinate larger with IQBAR. Go to eaticubar.com and enter code bar20 to get 20% off all IQBAR products, plus free shipping. Again, go to eaticubar.com and enter code bar20. Afterball rugby.

1:01Checkers rock and roll, and for better or worse, the sport likes it, sent it to me now, and Michael Checkend does that very well. Join in the obsession, subscribe now at afterball.com for its last join. The final one standing. By William Hill, unoff the ball. Download the app and play today. 18 plus gamblingcare.ie. All right, it's a lot to say, Lee Phelps and the Lads are here for this week's episode. Lee, how are you? I'm really good. Thank you. Suffering a little bit. Post-Cheltenham COVID or something, but you know, cowboys don't cry to this. So I'm, I enjoyed my week. I'm just struggling this week. It's a man flu. You can tell the truth. Quietly in the break there, Shane was like, I had a great chat, I'm like, he's literally the only person I know who finished up. Do we have a few people though? I think there were a few people who, but bigger price each race selections had really good weeks. We had some incredible accurs that were landed, but there just weren't many of them.

2:02Yeah, I think on the Wednesday. And like, I don't know if you've got violins under the desk for the punters there, but I think we had the best Cheltenham day we've ever had on the Wednesday. So on day two, which is incredible. But yeah, what one for the book is it was in the end? Yeah, yeah, saying that at 51. Yeah. Which he just picked up in the paper as like, I let's stand at that. I'll be on the, I'll be on the share in the E5, for each way on the 50s. Yeah, and then get a quarrier, of course, and the gold cup back itself. Not a bad Friday. Yeah, no, Jason. I got wiped out, which meant I ended up stupidly panicking, cashing in my ass and villa, not to finish in the top four bed before the last time I united. I was like, oh my god. Anyway, they're back now. They won last night and John McGinn is back and teed him and he's back and they're going to go on a round page. They're going to finish third. And anyway, I won't regret that until the day I die. Yeah. Where should we start this week? Our live game on Sunday is actually one of the most interesting games of the season. Yeah. Spurs for us, 215. I mean, this is sort of game, I suppose, lead that could go very south very quickly for either team bus.

3:04Spurs at home doesn't necessarily mean it's an advantage for them recently. No, no, definitely not. I mean, I was looking at some of the stats around their season and that the run that they're on, longest, windless stretch in league football since 1935. I haven't been firmly all West Hamer right down there. One, one Premier League game since the end of August, drawn four, lost nine, collected the fewest points of any top fight side, this term, 10 points. I mean, it's just, it's an object, isn't it? And there's been like a bit of a, suddenly, there's since the Liverpool draw and the winning midweek. There's a slight change, isn't it? Like, oh, maybe you starting to turn things around. I mean, Liverpool were pretty poor. I mean, they were already, they'd already lost that game. I've got to go, we're like, they're just like, yeah, with few score, we'll just score one just to keep near you. They lost seven and four and I could get, I'm not sure you can take that as a, as a moral victory for really go to now, but we'll see. You know, I just think there's more fighting for it, surely. Surely there's got to be more fighting than there is in Tottenham. But, you know, they're going to have to do something soon,

4:05aren't they? Otherwise, they are. You know, if, I mean, if West Ham, there's a big if, if West Ham won at Villa and Tottenham, you know, failed to get a result at home to Forrest and Serious. Yeah, it's getting really serious. Then Forrest are the interesting ones. They're like, we've kind of taken Burnley and Wolves out of the relegation betting now. But so you've got West Ham being favourites, then Tottenham, then Forrest at five to two. So Forrest might be the value. Again, if Tottenham do win here and West Ham don't get beaten, then, you know, Forrest might be the value to go down at this stage. But, you know, it's fascinating. I'm kind of, you know, because Arsenal have seen to have almost got the title wrapped up in a, you know, weird way. I'm kind of enjoying the relegation battle more than I'm enjoying the top of the table at the moment. Yeah, it feels that way. So how is this game priced up? What do you, what does the money think? Go on. Tottenham, a favourites five to four favourites, which I've got no idea why, you know, I do work with the traders. But, you know, I don't see anything about them that makes me think that they should be the favourites and that's short of price. I couldn't, I couldn't back them and anyone's money at five to four at home.

5:07Nine to four, the draw and Forrest just to touch over two to one at 21 to 10. So, hard to cut. I mean, I'm going to go for a scored draw double on these two to 15 games, Villa Westham and Tottenham Forrest. I think that comes out at 18 to one for both games to end in a scored draw, basically. This actually been, was there one Sunday last week where it was four scored draws? Yeah. Definitely. It was like one day, it was like, oh, that's draw, that's draw, there was another one, it was all two on home wins. Yeah. Yeah, that was a bad day for us. That was a really bad day for us. Yeah, I know, I think last Sunday there was like a couple of draws and then the previous Sunday before that, there was like a lot of home two on wins. Yeah. So, yeah, it's kind of just weird coincidence. But I don't know, I think it'd be interesting to see who scores first in either game in Austin Villa Westham or in the Spurs Forest game. And does that put pressure on in the other stadium?

6:09Yeah. Like. We had that phase now. We had that phase. It's probably our transistors in the crowd. It's great, great. But like, you can get the small violin out again. But like, in fairness to Forest, they've been missing, who's back soon, Chris Wood, who's obviously been their focal point for a long time. And then Spurs, the fact that they had two goalkeepers on the bench, last couple of games, which is pinpoint there. And I didn't recognise half of the three or four of their substitutions were just non-entities. Young lads who've never played senior football. So look, they're very unlucky both of these sides this season. But I mean, you've got to stay in the division somehow. Yeah, I think it could be a tense sort of a draw this game. But if, if Forest score early, Spurs are the ones more likely to compete in it, I feel. I know everyone that's kind of gone or all the teams that have gone to Spurs at home around this season have kind of done well. But interestingly, Vita Pereira was the coach of wolves when wolves were like awful and couldn't even get a point. Or, you know, couldn't really do anything. But they actually went earlier in the season too. To the Tom Hustler stadium and got a point then when they were like really, really terrible.

7:10So maybe Pereira knows how to get a result against the Spurs team, especially away from home. And you're kind of waiting for this kick that hasn't really come with Vita Pereira and Forest. Like, they still have so much talent like they have maybe two of the best midfielders in the Premier League in Morgan Gibbs' White and then Elliott Anderson. So it's kind of strange that they're down there. But yeah, like, the goal scoring hasn't been good. Igor Jesus has been kind of hit and miss. But I think just think that Vita Pereira could do a job on Spurs and Sunday. And like, okay, that's not no great feat. Obviously, we're the R&O. But I think it's a good job as in win the game. Win the game, yeah, win the game. It wouldn't be a huge surprise. I mean, one of the interesting elements to this relegation battle is the goal difference. It was time on minus 19, Forest on minus 15, and Tottenham on minus seven leads incidentally minus 11. Now, it's a Tottenham of obviously. It's like a point, obviously, isn't it? That to anyone who's got a better goal difference. I mean, what do they concede? Nine goals in three games in Igor Tudor's first three league games.

8:11So he's doing his best to undo that good work as well. But, you know, so that may have to be careful of that, I think. So, you know, that's again, that's one of the reasons why the prices are the way they are. But yeah, I think Tottenham need to keep it tight. If they aren't going to be winning games, they can't be getting beaten 2 and 3s. Vita Pereira didn't look that happy when the penalty shootout was won against Michelin. I know that there's two complicated games against Porto that are to come and write in the middle of a relegation battle in the Premier League. Villa, I think, is different because even Villa dropped out of the top five they don't want to. But they're probably the only English team left that can really target a trophy there in the Europa League. You cannot put all your eggs in that basket and hope to get Champions League football through the Europa League. But maybe that's going to be the way when I am ready, does it? Maybe. I do think that the performance was way better than what we've seen from Villa just recently. And I think the first hour against United when McGinn played, they were actually our rice. When he went off, things fell apart. So this game against West Ham is actually low-key, incredibly important in terms of them finishing

9:13in the top four or top five, which will have a knock-on impact on what happens with on a slot and potentially a Chelsea. Whether or not, it's very difficult to survive if you don't qualify for the Champions League when you were in the Champions League and you got absolutely annihilated. And there's just noise around him. So Adali Watkins is absolutely brutal at the minute. I almost felt sorry from an old Trafford last weekend. He just couldn't get involved whatsoever. Every touch he had was negative. But look, maybe he'll come good. I know he scored in European football recently. But he stands out, I guess, with them. Yeah, and he didn't start last night. So I think that might be the end of him starting for the foreseeable as well. Ask them their favorites at home to beat West Ham. Yeah, justifiable. I mean, not as short as you might imagine they could be, given it's Aston Villa versus West Ham, the even money, which like, there's a few of these teams this weekend. There's Manchester United or odds against to win at Bournemouth. I know they're away from home. Liverpool odds against to win at Bryant. Chelsea odds against to win at Everton.

10:13And Aston Villa, even money to win at home to West Ham. Like, I know West Ham have improved, but there's still haven't overtaken anyone. There's still in the bottom three. West Ham aren't big enough a price for me just on the 90 minutes to take on five to two. It isn't big enough at Villa. I mean, I guess team use everything here, isn't it? Because if two of them is is playing them against, playing them, then that changes things equally. If some of Christensen or some of them play to West Ham, that changes things as well. Intriguing game. I read a stat where Unai Emery has never lost four successive league games in his managerial career. They've lost three on the bounce in the minutes. So they could well do without losing to West Ham or there's some history created in Emery's career there. But yeah, look, you're on the face of it. You have to go with Villa, don't you? I mean, there would be going in a lot of acres. You know, anyone who's looking at an Aka boost on Sunday, they'll be looking to stick Villa in there without really thinking about it, I guess. But I'm not so sure. I must admit, like that's why I've won for the draw.

11:14I think, you know, I know they seem to have an easy night of it in Europe, but it's still exertion, isn't it? And it's still, they're not quite at it, Aston Villa. Yeah, maybe West Ham can just hold them to a one-on-one. They've not scored that many goals in the league, either. Have they? No, you guys have just been saying so. Yeah, yeah. If you do man United away, Liverpool away, and Chelsea away with the draw, it comes out of 32 to 1. Stabting it. Well, man United, win away. Sorry, you had to say something. No, just interesting Villa, or on being in the last six games against West Ham, three wins, three draws. But they're looking for their first double over West Ham since the 2010-11 season. And that was the last time West Ham are relegated from the Premier League. Ah, so there you go, a little bit of history repeating. Yeah. Will Manchester United? Are they in a scenario now where they can go this evening and win against Andona Eriola, who you couldn't get out in the third round? Like, it's a type of get-look. I was at the 4-4 game between these two. It'll try for before Christmas. And I don't think it's going to be like that.

12:14Tonight, Michael Carrick's obviously tightened up the ship a little bit, but Bomberton really could form that 10-game on beaten run. And yeah, it's just hard to see United Drop points. Even when they're playing poorly, they're picking up points. Newcastle game, notwithstanding. They just look so hard to break down. And I tell the performances all across the pitch have been really, really good. There's cause for optimism with mess and known back on the bench as well. They're getting a few more options in there. Cornie was like, a Bruno Fernandez is just, he's running the show at the minute for them. He's at his peak, I think. The Zenith Bruno right now is the one we're seeing in front of us. And yeah, I think this is the type of game that Carrick, you know, United can get over the line. Maybe 1-0, 2-0 sort of thing. Bomberton will fancy themselves going at home, but I just think at the moment they look irrepressible. And the fact that they've got three weeks gap, maybe two and a half, three weeks gap between this and the next game. Yeah, they'll play at the middle of April. Which is a long, long gap for these players. So yeah, I think United will fancy this one. I don't know, I wouldn't be as confident of that. I think United's performances kind of regressed after the initial kind of impact under Carrick.

13:14And then last week, they showed up again against Villa at times in the game. Those times in the game where they're really struggling, especially after going on a lap. Tonight against Bournemouth in like a fixture that, you know, you don't generally have sometimes a great record down there in the South Coast. It's a Friday night football as well. It's, yeah, it can be a bit of a weird one for fans and players. But like Bournemouth's form, they've had four wins and six draws and that's in that run. So they've studied the ship under kind of a reo, especially after the beginning in the season where they had a really patchy form. But I don't know, I still don't really trust this United side at the minute to just kind of keep going on this run. So I'd be a little bit worried for Carrick and United players to see them. Not that it's really motivation. Go on ahead, Lisa. No, no, no, I was just going to say it's interesting. It seemed that that great start to his manager at Manchester United. It seemed to be built on, you know, sitting back and allowing teams to come on when they have to make the game. They seem to struggle down there when they have to, but you just wonder if Bournemouth have a go at Manchester United, if they can kind of adopt

14:16that same mentality and strategy of just kind of sitting in a bit and then using the quality they've got up front to hit Bournemouth on the break. I don't expect to see eight goals again, but I can see it being entertaining game. Like you guys said, neither of these teams have got anything to lose here, other, you know, it's like, you know, they're both in great positions. Big break coming up, spring break for Manchester United, isn't it? Basically, there's an epic boost on it, by the way. It's my United to score in the first half, even money from odds on. And two of those eight in the reverse fixture came in the first half for the United. But yeah, I expect goals. Not if hard to, I think I go Bournemouth on the prices, because why would you go against them? They're a really good side. We've really got attacking players. Yeah, but high on the goals, maybe both teams to score and over 2.5. Maybe if you're looking at a better builder. And I like who you as well. I mean, I like any of them. Like you guys said, Bruno's sensational. I was looking at the most assists in the season, Betting. I think he's like, I think he's 1,000 to 1 on to in that. Right. There's something doubt.

15:17So him, Kunya and Boomer, obviously, there's just gold. There are a lot of goals in this Manchester United team. So if you're a man United, fine. You're looking for a way in, maybe a better builder. Then, yeah, I'd be looking at shots on target and goals and assists for them. It's not very often that you're going to get, you know, Liverpool and Chelsea are being odds against. Why aren't Liverpool and more heavy favourites against Brighton? I know their form is bad at the moment, but surely there was stuff midweek where there were some green shoots. This podcast is sponsored by IQBAR. I've got good news and bad news. Here's the bad news. Most protein bars are packed with sugar and unpronounceable ingredients. The good news, there's a better option. I'm Will and I created IQBAR plant protein bars to empower doers like you with clean, delicious, low sugar brain and body fuel. IQBARs are packed with 12 grams of protein, brain nutrients like magnesium and lion's mane, and zero weird stuff. And right now you can get 20% off all IQBAR products,

16:18plus reshipping. Try our delicious IQBAR sampler pack with seven plant protein bars for hydration mixes and four enhanced coffee sticks. Cleaning ingredients, amazing taste, and you'll love how you feel. Refuel smarter, hydrate harder, caffeinate larger with IQBAR. Go to eatiqbar.com and enter code bar 20 to get 20% off all IQBAR products, plus free shipping. Again, go to eatiqbar.com and enter code bar 20. It was against car teseride. I mean, even most of them look good against the midnight. So maybe that's the level. Maybe that's most of most of the Turkish top flight level player. I just think I do think Europe isn't quite as some European teams aren't anywhere near the level of it. Obviously, clearly, the Premier League as a whole was caught out in this last round, wasn't it? It was made to see. I think there was a false confidence about how well the Premier League teams had done, but Brian had been in good form recently. I think they've been in really good neck.

17:19And I think from a trading point of view, I think you can afford to tempt customers and punters in by giving these prices, knowing full well that they won't all land, or probably won't all land. I mean, you wouldn't be that confident in Chelsea at Everton. Not that kind of. I'm not looking at Liverpool and thinking, oh, yeah, they'll win at Brighton, even though they've got a good record day, even though, you know, it's rubbish-losing great form. And, you know, if Salah is back, then obviously that changes things, because him linking it with a Kiteke, obviously would be fantastic. And there was some great football the other night. But we've seen this from Liverpool, that, you know, they were brilliant against Real Madrid in the season. Then they think they came back into the Premier League and were really good against Hastin, but oh, and they were playing well. And then it all just bottomed out again, didn't it? There's one bit in this game that I do like. I mean, Brighton, surprisingly, are right at the top of the yellow cards this season. There was better's top of mind in terms of yellow cards. And Diego Gomez has been booked twice against Liverpool this season already. He's picked up two bookings in his last two games.

18:20And like I say, they're liable to pick up cards. He's over two to one, 23 to 10 to be carded. So again, if you're looking for a bet builder, I'd be chucking that one in there. Diego Gomez to pick up a yellow in there. Yeah, I can't trust it. I'm not looking at the 65 battle point. I'm rubbing my hands together. Similarly, are everyone actually a good price at home to beat this Chelsea side who may be careering off track at the moment before our very eyes? Well, the 23 to 10. I mean, I was a bit worried about the fact that I heard it into you with Moesie the day. And then we're asking about the home stadium. He was kind of saying, like, yeah, we do need time to make it our own. I think, I guess when you move into a new stadium, you need those moments that create memories, don't you? And they haven't really had any of those, particularly yet. You need a huge win over Liverpool to make it feel like it's that there's something that you can latch onto as a final.

19:20I just think it's maybe not quite there. The home form has been poor. Chelsea have won six to the last 10 away, lost a PSG, lost to Arsenal, and the Dhruch Rexham, of course, in the FA Cup with a bit of a change team. So Chelsea have been decent away from home. Yeah, again, no, I'm not madkin. Any of these three prices would be honest. Maybe again, it's like, I've looked to a lot of betbuilders this week, just like leaving the outrights alone, trying to look at where I can find a bit of value in the in the players. Ileman and Jai, by the way, to have a over one shot on target is just under four to one. He's like one of the, obviously, one of the stars of the Everton team, especially with Grelish, not in the starting lineup with his injury. So, yeah, I'm probably looking at a fairly tight game, but the players like and Jai getting shots on target. Yeah, look, what'll happen is, you know, Man United Liverpool and Chelsea will all win easily, won't they? And I've been made to looking at it. Well, I don't know, it's that Chelsea can slightly better away from home,

20:22maybe makes a bit of sense with what's happening, and the pressure that they feel from the fans, and the uncertainty around, is this actually the future, is this manager as good as we've been led to believe by the hierarchy, or, you know, do you know, I won't just wonder, does Lea have the odds for Chelsea to form another huddle around the referee and back the ball? I have to see it again. No, no, no, that was crazy, wasn't it? Yeah, yeah, I was looking at it last week thinking there. It did make a nice change for the ref to be in a huddle rather than a VAR muddle. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, please not again. We haven't talked about the Caribbean Cup Final. What do you think is going to happen here? And for Manchester City, yeah, are they going to go and put a statement performance and then go and change their form around to go and run towards the end of the season? I don't know, like, this city relevant is not to the league. Like, in this game itself, it's like, logically, though, I think you can have some sort of impact.

21:24Like, I think the last thing they probably wanted to face this weekend, the ball weekend, was definitely Man City. No, they were boosted last week by kind of having the nine points gap, but still, I don't think they want to see the city team at all. And the only thing is though, like, City, like, this is the end of the Guardiola era, maybe, and maybe this is the end of the Guardiola. Yeah, well, this is the end of the team, and maybe the formation of a new team, with Gai and Semenio, and I see Harlan is going to be there. So I don't know, like, we've had question marks over a city all year. And I can't see them shown up on Sunday either, because, yeah, I think Aras and I just going to have too much for them, either in set pieces, or either from open play as well. I think they'll just suffocate them, and yeah, I don't think there'd be any Guardiola master plan, unfortunately. No, he's more likely to overthink us. Yeah, I almost feel like Aras will be bouncing into this one after what happened in the lead last. We can't have the city drop and points against West Ham.

22:24Like, Arte does very much of Vibes manager. Obviously, the team are flying at the moment, and want to continue that, but I don't know, I almost feel like I don't know if you had the odds of extra time, where this game going 120 minutes, or all the way, but it has that sort of feel that in the final particularly with the trophy on the line, these two teams will want to not shadow box, but not lose the game rather than go and win the game. I see this being the tight one, and maybe that takes us all the way to penalties, potentially. Yeah, and you do see that I was looking at past past finals. I think I'm the last 10. There's only been four that have featured over 2.5. I've got three or more goals in them. City beat Villa 21. They beat Arsenal 3-0, of course, back in 2018. My night beat South Hampton 3-2, and last season was a 2-1 for Newcastle. Traditionally, it's quite a low scoring final, but yeah, you can have the odds on the match to go to penalties, for instance. Yes, it's 4-1 there. Then you can have Arsenal on my city to win on penalties or in extra time, so they're all the odds available. All the main markets,

23:26just as a reminder, are based on 90-minute betting, so then you've got a winner of the test. To lift the trophy, Arsenal 8-11. The 13-10 to win in 90 minutes, but 8-11 to win the to lift the trophy effectively. Man City, even money. It's interesting to say it doesn't have a bearing on the Premier League. I remember, do you remember when Klopp's last season, when Liverpool Liverpool were in this exact position, I think, where they were going for the quadruple, people talking about it. They were playing great, and they won the league cup, and then it all just seemed to fall away a little bit after that. I remember looking back a few years ago at what teams did once they won the league cup, because it's such a weird time of the season to be celebrating. There has been generally a drop off from various teams, so if Arsenal do win it, it's interesting to see how he gets them to go again after winning that first trophy, because you'd presume there'd be big celebrations, and it'd be a massive relief to get that first trophy for a while. City, of course, have won this eight times. I think only Liverpool have won it more,

24:28so it is their trophy in a sense, so I'm really looking forward to it. I hope it's an open one. I'm not really expecting it to be that open. I think Eberich, as I can have a big influence, obviously, scored against City in the FA Cup final last season. It's been a really good form, hasn't he recently? I think he's been involved in six goals in his last nine, four of them scoring two assists. So yeah, I think he'd be the one I'd be looking at. If you're looking at goal scorers, maybe he can make the difference in this one. But yeah, it's going to be fascinating. To turn us off, not often you'll get them odds against like that to win a win in 90 minutes, I guess. Yeah, I think that's a standard for me. I think it's a straightforward arsenal win, but maybe I'm missing something. Anything else from you, Lee, before we let you go? I find one standing continues, of course. We've got a new game kicking off on three a peak, three p.m. Saturday. We've got one game from game week 20, so two players left. Each could obviously win the 20k themselves, or they could share it and get 10k each.

25:32The teams they've come for, a full-on, one of them's gone for full-on to win their match, which I'm not sure. I mean, it's at home to Burnley, by the way, so they should win it, but I'm not massively confident in full-on. And the other one, this is brave. I've gone for Newcastle in the Derby, new on Sunday. Newcastle to beat Sunderland in that one, so we'll be keeping a close eye on that, I guess. Look, if they both fail to win, they both take 10 grand home, so no qualms there, but say, yeah, we'll be keeping a close eye on that one. I could boost available as usual. We've got the bet builders on the Leacup final. It's a 50 per cent winnings boost this weekend, so if you manage to get a bet builder in on that one, you get to make sure you take the the one to get your 50 per cent extra on your winnings on that. But yeah, really looking forward to it. Should be cracking weight with loads of epic boosts as well. Ah, Whiskey is the only cure for Manflue Lee, we all know that. I don't get one now. It's like half 12. Yeah, best of luck. Cheers. Thank you guys. Afterball rugby. Checkers rock and roll, and for better or worse, the sport likes it, send it to him now, and Michael Checkand does that very well.

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