Fantasy MLB Today: SP Start/Sit Decisions for the Weekend, CY Young Races Heating Up

0:00football is back and this is believed your home for NFL and college football news and analysis all season long. Now let's start the show. Hello and welcome back to the sports ethos fantasy mLB today. Podge has presented by Fandall. This is Nathan Baker back with you on this Friday afternoon with a bit of a combo episode for you today. Combining some start sit decisions for starting pitchers in this weekend and beginning of next week in fantasy baseball, particularly important if you're in fantasy baseball playoffs or if you're chasing a title in a road o league and this will be applicable for points leagues and maybe even more significantly for categories leagues in which you're either chasing ratios or you're chasing wins or strikeouts. We'll have examples of guys who you should look to start and guys where you'd be better off passing on that start. Not as much from a streaming focus but in terms of guys

1:01already on your roster, do you want to use your starts on those guys in a points league or do you want to risk your ratios with those guys in a categories league? After that we'll get into some Sia Young discussion discussing the best pitchers in the National League and American League, how the Sia Young race could pan out in the remaining three weeks of the major league season. What would have to happen for each player to win it and what kind of fantasy value each of these guys have not only put up now but what kind of value the figure to have dynasty wise in the long term and obviously trade windows are likely closed for most leagues. I'd see some of them aren't so obviously if you're in a league that still permits trades, go ahead and take advantage of that but in all likelihood the dynasty actions are going to be more for the off season rather than the current state. Now, Fandall Probe is we've

2:03been doing in recent episodes is going to be Sia Young themed and the National League while not as much of a formality after rough start from Jacob Mizorowski and some recent surging from Procell as maybe it would have been. It is still likely to be Mizorowski but the American league is even more competitive with Dylan Seas and Cam Schletler and as of now Fandall has Schletler at minus 270 and sees it plus 210 and my bet is going to be on Seas plus 210 and even though I personally think that the argument may not be in a pick-up for Seas and we'll get into the details as to Schletler versus Seas a little bit later in this episode but it's a lot more even than a 2-1 circumstance and that's essentially what you're getting a little bit better than that if you bet on Dylan Seas. So this is very much where I

3:03think the fair odds might be a tilt towards one direction and instead of being a tilt it's a little bit more extreme. So being able to get 2-1 it really is with all Sia Young award voting a matter of one or two starts that can change everything so if you're in the conversation you have a chance to win it and both Schletler and Seas have been pitching fantastically as of now I'll explain why I think Schletler might slightly have an edge but I think there are very effective arguments for Seas. I think season in a lot of ways has been the more valuable picture and certainly one or two rough starts maybe even just one rough start for Schletler could be enough to totally flip the balance. So that plus 2-10 for Dylan Seas for me is very attractive indeed. Now from a streaming perspective our episode today is not

4:04entirely going to be focused on streamers but rather more of the start-sick decisions. And there are a couple of guys that I think are in a bit of both of that circumstance and I'll use Zach Fornton as the example because he's going to be my personal recommendation as a streamer. Fornton is going to be facing off tomorrow against the San Francisco Giants at home. That is a very, very promising matchup for a team that has not been good offensively. I'll be a bit better recently got a lot of young guys playing up. Fornton's rostered in 28% of Yahoo Leagues, fewer ESPN leagues. And he's been great so far this year. Now putting up crazy strikeout numbers in his rookie campaign. But at 2.93 ERA, Wip is very good. The peripherals would indicate some level of good luck that he's had in the Mets defense in particular since the trade deadline has been very strong and the outfield in particular which is Health Fornton. And against a weak offense,

5:05I think that he is really money for ratios. I think he's got a good chance of getting the win against a weak San Francisco Giants team and a Mets team that's been playing much better. But I think it'll be great for points leagues too, especially with those quality start bonuses which he's been hitting a lot. He's the kind of guy that isn't necessarily going to put up crazy strikeouts. Given up 2 or 3 runs in a number of his starts, but not more. And that is huge obviously for a quality start. So that 2 or 3 runs, 6 inning start, maybe with 4 or 5 strikeouts is definitely worth streaming, especially for a guy who is a favorite for the win. And needsless to stay, if you have Zach Thornton, he would be the first guy to start in our start to sit decisions. Of course, I would not recommend a streamer who is worth binging. Now, other streamers that are worth some consideration, Martin Perez, I definitely think is worth a consideration.

6:06A couple of others that I was thinking about like you say Kikouji. And then obviously, as is always the case, I have some unannounced starting pictures. Taj Radley's past the threshold, by the way. But if you're in a league or he is available, he's an operator to stream, but he is owned in a too large of a percentage of the leagues for me to mention him as a streamer. So of the start sit guys, there are a handful of pictures that do not need to be in a start sit discussion. The best of the best type pictures, your SP ones, and I'm going to go today for the when in doubt name them. And I won't spend too much time on why you should start the best pictures. But for example, tonight, Chris Sailing and Christopher Sanchez, you know, Sanchez in Sanchez's case, especially, it's not necessarily the best matchup in the world. It doesn't matter. When you have a guy who's been near the top of baseball, you start him, Peary.

7:06The opponent is irrelevant. The course field doesn't matter, except sometimes it might, but it's still worth taking that risk. So I'm not going to get into those guys. I am going to talk about the largely rostred starting pictures and we'll start with Zach Wheeler, who I know has a rate in consistency of a recent start. His last one was a lot better. Now Wheeler for me in his starting is the Braze Saturday is going to be close to a straight start. The only way I wouldn't start Wheeler is to be able to be able to do that. I wouldn't start Wheeler is if you are very, very protective of your ratio as it are safe and the strikeouts slash win race is no longer relevant at the moment. But he's going to be a good bet for strikeouts. Obviously, there's risk with how poor some of his starts prior to the last one were. And so he's challenging when you have a decent outing against a bad offense because you have to kind of weigh how much was it the offense that was performing that he took advantage of versus how much is he

8:08back to his best. But I'm still starting Zach Wheeler against the Braze. Obviously, yes, strong opponent, struggling pitcher. That one, the strikeout upside is just too much to where I'm starting him just about anywhere. Fraber Vallad is a little bit trickier. He's again in that range where if you're really protective of the race you might want to consider binging. But for me, Fraber is still one who against the Guardians is a decent pitcher to start being left handed neutralizes a few of their bigger threats although they obviously would show a deal with the trade deadline. Still have some guys that can mash left these Parker Messick on the other side is a no-brainer. Messick, I think at this point is you start him against anyone and everyone. Braxton Ashcraft, I think, is close to that and the reality is that he's always going to be that because of how regularly he's going to keep in games, getting quality start bonuses. The pirates are a much better team than the angels are. So Ashcraft is a no-brainer

9:08for the win. Strikeouts, obviously, you'll do okay in that category. But even the ratio is the volume. The whole package is one to start. Justin May is a bit riskier and this is the first one where I'm going to say it's a straight bench if you're looking for ratio and it's a start for volume. The brewers are a better team and gravity. The brewers are a better team and gravity is not a super formidable opponent. May does give you a decent chance for a win. But he's got enough blow up potential that if your ratios are competitive, I'm not even talking about a circumstance like with all this where maybe you're in the lead and you just don't want to really risk the ratios. If it's 50-50, I think May is one of those that I'm trying to lean off. But from a strikeouts win, any of the volume stats perspective, I think is a sure bit to start. Drew Rasmussen and despite some uneven outing is recently Jacob DeGrom. I still think are both in

10:09must start category. DeGrom has been cursed by some hard contacts and some bad luck. But still has tremendous strikeouts to walk. Tremendous numbers of roll. Rasmussen has been one of the best pictures in the American League and in his case, as it comes to a very nice matchup. Suddy Gray is a no-brainer start. That's a pretty easy one against the Baltimore Orioles. Max Scherzer is one that I would definitely keep an eye on and Scherzer is in it tough one because he was brilliant in his last outing. The Royals are not a difficult opponent. But it's an older picture who's had a lot of inconsistency this year. It's tough to really know how either you're likely to sustain that. Tosh Bradley is a great player. He's a great player. He's a great player. I just want to give you a little bit of a bit better in that. Tosh Bradley, I think, is a pro-nother very similar to Dustin May, but a bit better in that. Bradley, I'm starting if I'm looking for strikeouts. He's probably at a slight disadvantage for the win on the road on the Southside

11:10Chicago, similar quality teams. The white socks are a bit better but Bradley is a better picture than his opponent. Anthony Kay, but the strikeouts are great for Tosh Bradley. So if you're kind of kind of competitive in all categories, but really pushing for the strikeouts. That's where I'm pretty comfortable, Bradley, whereas May, I'm really only going for if I'm not super hung up on ERA. Carlos Roudon and Robbie Ray, I'm fine with starting. Although Ray is one of those who has enough blow up potential in treasily both of them, that I'm not super enthralled with starting them if I'm on a nest egg. Realistically, you shouldn't be starting anyone if you're punting or not punting, but if the race for the volume numbers are done in one way or another and you're protecting ERA and you're winning it, then there's no reason to ever start, truthfully, any starting picture. And there's a Roudon Ray or not the safest options. Even in fought, I think I am still starting against the Astros only as a volume play.

12:16And I know he's been really good, but the blow up potential is enormous. Kate Cavali's been so good. I'm actually fine starting him, period, even against the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. It's a very tough matchup, but the Dodgers have not been the Dodgers really over the last couple of months and it's still a good offensive team. There's no question about it, but Cavali's been so good that I view him as a straight start regardless of circumstance. And George Kirby, for me, is a nearing drop. We discussed Kirby on our Wednesday pod, yes, with Paul and I if you missed that, go ahead and check it out. We discussed ads and mostly drops and whether you should drop guys that are owned in 60, 70, 80% of leagues who have not been performing. Kirby is that, but he's still worth holding on to until after his start against the Sacramento

13:16Athletics at home. It's a very favorable matchup. It's one of those where if he dominates, you give him one more. If he struggles, then you cut bait and no more George Kirby for the time being on Sunday. I am going to bench Kyle Harrison against the reds if I care about my ratios at all. He's been brilliant this year. The reds are not that formidable of an offensive team. The Cubs obviously who lit him up in the last game are, but I always worry with that type of performance, whether there's some type of pitch tip in going on. He's at Great American Ballpark, which is not a favorable matchup. I really am just not super enthusiastic about any of that. Again, volume play, fine, better team, et cetera. Tyler Mallie is kind of in the same boat. Mallie's been great for the race, so the most part. Some of the concerns about matchups against the Phillies, despite actually having some good numbers against some Philly hitters, it still makes me a little bit concerned.

14:18Mallie is one of those that I'm going to opt to bench. I feel a lot better about Wilder Arena for the Angels, even though peace-facing Paul skiing, skiing is obviously not in the same. You had a chance at a win there, of course. ERA ratios, I think, should be okay. Obviously, not necessarily the best whip guy in the world, so there's a circumstance in which you bench him, but more or less is a straight start. Kyle Bradish on benching. He's had some inconsistency. It's really been a weird year because you've kind of expected, oh, well, if he was on the field, he was going to perform, and he's been on the field, and he hasn't performed really to the level you'd have hoped. I think the win probability is going to be at a tough uphill climb. He's facing the Red Sox, a pain totally on the hill, who is a straight start. So Bradish, yeah, honestly, straight bench, again, with the notwithstanding. If you just need volume and you've punted ERA, and I'm talking about not, I have a big

15:20lead in ERA, but I'm at a great deficit in ERA and whip, and you're just hunting wins, saves, and strikeouts. You should start everyone. I mean, at the end of the day, if you're ERA's five or six or seven, it doesn't matter. Christian Scott against the Giants is a categories league start and a points league bench if you have a start limit. Scott against the Giants, it's a great matchup. Christian Scott has been fantastic this year as a whole, has not gone as deep into starch as you'd have liked recently, but is still a good source of strikeouts. Pretty good job with the avid slumitation. My concern with Scott is that the Mets did announce that they're going to be trying to manage his workload here on out. And I worry in a points league, if you're up against a start limit, are you really out from a potential four or five inning outing from him going to get your money's worth? I'd probably rather not. Now obviously in categories leagues, it's just about wins, strikeouts and ratios, and it

16:27gives you a decent enough chance for a win as long as you can get through five. The ratios will be good and should get his fair share of strikeouts even in an abbreviated outing. The Guardians Tigers, Jackson Job, I'm going to bench again unless I'm going pure volume. That's, it's just, it's a tough matchup against Cleveland with the left handed pole power that those guys have. And Job has had some inconsistency. He's looked great at times. He's looked really not so good at other times. I'm also not even remotely optimistic about the winchats. Gavin Williams on the other side has not been quite as sharp as, you know, the best version of Gavin Williams that we saw earlier in the year, but still is a start. The Tigers are not agree offensive ball club. He's at home. Good enough winchants, strikeouts obviously are elite. So from an overall perspective, it is a straight start.

17:27Last one for Sunday, not sorry last one for Sunday, last one of the straight up nailed on ones for Sunday is Eduardo Rodriguez, believe it or not. Now we discussed E-Rod on Wednesday a little bit. I've been starting him all year and maybe you call me crazy, but I've just been, I picked him up first week of the season off waivers and he has been in my rotation all season in multiple leagues, categories and points. So there's really more of a points lead guy because the strikeouts aren't crazy and he still does walks in people. So it's not like amazing, amazing numbers, but I mean, he has a 2.59 ERA. So that's real nice. And he has 14 wins. So that's real nice from a category is a league perspective. So it's not like he's a slouch there either. And it's not a good matchup for the Astros. I'll be honest, it's not. It's a heavily right handed lineup. A lot of pole hitters that can take a lot of those jammed fly ball, weak fly ball outs

18:28that E-Rod gets and pop them over the Crawford boxes. It's a bad matchup. I think I've gotten to the point now where I'm going to keep riding E-Rod until he burns me. And honestly, once he does burn me, I'm accepting it because he's given me so much. Now, not everybody has the same opinion in that regard. I very much understand the hesitancy. I'm still starting E-Rod. I think he's a good source of ratios. The ERA has been great all year. Yes, I understand there's been some fortune. There's also a lot that the face C-R-X-E-R-A, FIPX-FIP are not taken to account with E-Rod, which will be potentially for a future episode. I am riding an article or in the midst of writing an article about that as well. So if you're interested in how Eduardo Rodriguez has a mid-tuse ERA yet a bright blue savant page, you'll be able to find out more there. The kids' ego I'm going to sit other than for volume.

19:29I, Binion Consistent, worried about the length. The strikeouts are good, even though it's not against a team that doesn't strike out a ton in Tampa Bay. But I'm not a whole big fan of the damage limitation against one of the better offences in baseball. How leaky I think is actually a passable start for a damage limitation, even at course field, has stuffed profiles better at course than most pitchers do. Now he's going to be capped at like 65 pitches for the rest of his outing. So points leagues, I'm not even considering it if there's a start limit. But if you're just kind of needing like a little nudge, it's not a terrible option, again, realistically, it's a deep league streamer. Just anyone at course, that's not a bonafide ace is not really going to be your number one shot. I'm going to give gauge jump one more chance against the Mariners in Seattle.

20:31It's a risky one. I think if you're protecting your ratios, it's definitely one to avoid. But the strikeout rate is good enough that if you're seeking everything at once, I think it's a worthwhile risk in deeper leagues. Brian Wu is a slam dunk start. Not necessarily be if the location was reversed as it will be in about a week's time. But for this round with the matchup in Seattle, I'm very happy to start Wu straight up. Michael King against his old team, the Yankees at Petco Park is a start, I think in all circumstance. I'm sitting Bailey over. I'm starting Sean Verne and I'm sitting at Andrew Alvarez. And Alvarez has been great. He's just one of those guys that I'm not really willing to take the risk on yet. Now Monday, it's a little bit too far to go into depth on Monday. We'll have a little bit more there. We do know that Hazus Luzardo and Bryce Elder have been announced as the starters for

21:33the wrap around. Of course, Luzardo's start elder bench. That's not a super difficult one to come up with. Chase Burns. Well, Burns, if you're looking strictly for ratios, should do you quite well in an abbreviated outing, it's the Dodgers, even though it's the Dodgers and even though Burns has been fading. But in a points league, Chase Burns is a drop. He's going to have abbreviated outings for the rest of the year. They're really trying to protect that shoulder and the arm as a whole. They're going to have him piggyback with Brandon Williamson. And if you're in one of those points, so the start limit, Williamson could be to pick up for Monday as a bulk reliever. Those guys can be very valuable. So that's definitely one to consider. Otherwise, I view Burns as a categorizally, no start league type guy only. And quite honestly, if you're chasing everything, I don't think he gives you a good enough chance to win. We're really looking to keep him in many formats at all.

22:37So that'll be all for this part of the podcast, mainly the start sit decisions. We're going to try to implement these for the last couple of weeks in the season regularly, just to have 10, 15 minutes to go over start sit. I have X, Y and Z picture. Now if you want more detail on any of these guys, feel free to add and bake or NGB on X at Paul underscore W34 on X or at ethos fantasy Bb. And we will certainly give you more detailed advice on, okay, I'm in this situation. I'm in my lead has this these categories that I'm fighting for. I'm in this point's league situation. This is how my structure is. Do I start this guy? Do I pick up a streamer instead? Do I just bench him? Do I go with a bulk guy? Do I just stack closers and pursue saves? All of those strategy propositions we can have on a more specific basis on social media. Now the Si Young race, well, it will start with the national league first and start with

23:43the national league because I think it's going to be a lot more straightforward. The reality is that Jacob Mizorowski is the unquestionable Si Young front runner and in all likelihood will be the unquestionable Si Young award winner. There's a lot of arguments over what should go into Si Young. Should we count peripherals, VIP, XVIP, XERA? Should it even strikeouts count? I mean, the strikeouts I think have always kind of counted. Obviously used to be win loss record used to be a big thing. And innings pitched, of course, still a big thing. XERA is clearly the most impactful thing. Picture F war and B war are used by some people. I think that's very unwise. It clearly does not do a very good job of valuing results and given that these awards are results based awards. It seems nonsensible to use metrics that quantify picture value by volume and performance

24:44when at the end of the day, more than volume and certainly more than performance results out of the most. Mizorowski even after his uneven start in Chicago, 1.970RA still best in baseball, 2.08XERA 2.275, 2.25XVIP. The strikeout numbers are unbelievable. He's not a 155 innings pitch, which is actually 11 more than Cursale, who's about to make his 25th start of the year. Mizorowski just 26 already. So sale will cover some of that ground tonight. And the numbers are great across the board. He's not walking people. He's striking out the world more than any starter in baseball by a significant margin. He's done a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark, although not as much recently as he had earlier in the year. And for all of the often cynical test speculation, I could say, or projection of all he's going

25:45to get hard and his arm's going to snap. He's been on the field and the numbers have been still fantastic. I mean, even if he want to go a little more onto the hood, whip 0.79 is fantastic. Obviously, the strikeout rate, almost 40%, it was over 40%. And it's now down to a measly 38.3%. But Bauer rate is the elite. He's limited damage better than most pitchers. Expected batting average against him is 170. So guys just don't get hits. Walk rates around 6.5%. They don't walk. And when they do put it in play, they don't do damage, 3.8% Bauer rate. It is a complete Si Young profile. And I think it would take a monumental collapse, honestly, more than even just injury for him not to win the Si Young award, even with slightly depreciated performance. Now there is no question that in the National League, Chris sale at the moment would have to be the number two option sale.

26:47His YRA is not far off. It's at a 2.06. It is closeable tonight in his starting against the Phillies. His whip is right at one. He still has 177 strikeouts and 144 innings. That's a 30% strikeout rate, which is the elite, not quite Mizorowski territory, but still great. Walk rate around 5% is even better than Miz. Bauer rate a little over 5% is still great, not quite as good. A couple of the peripherals, otherwise don't love him quite as much. You know, XERA around 3, the Thip and XFIP, like I'm a bit more. This batting average at 222 is great, not quite Miz, but it's great. And that's basically sale season as a whole. This is a good enough year to win Si Young in many seasons. And honestly, in a lot of ways, and I would make this argument, it is a better season than what he had last year for sure. And I think very fair to argue that it's a better season than the year he had when he won the pitching triple crown and won the Si Young a couple of seasons ago.

27:48So record 13 and 9, the 9 losses aren't pretty, and that might work against them, especially for a good team. But I think there's no doubt that sales second place. He's an unfortunate second. It is a very, very exceptional season from Mizorowski to knock him off of that. But he's been the same for sale. And there's no question he's a top 5 pitcher in baseball. He is as true of an ace as you could possibly find. Now third place is where it gets a little bit cloudier. And there's a lot of debate over guys that should or could be considered. Some who have been like not even remotely discussed some who had been discussed for a while. I mean, there was a period of time where Paul Skins was on fire at the beginning after having that rough first outing and was just lights out for like a couple of months. Now Paul skiing ZRA is around four and he's been unlucky. There's no question. But not so unlucky. And his ZRA quite frankly, even if he was so unlucky, is high enough that he's not realistically going to be considered. Eduardo Rodriguez, as I mentioned, the peripherals aren't beautiful.

28:50He's not really striking guys out. But the YRA is 2.59. That is tremendous. He also has 14 wins for people. What people care about that under 67 innings is very nice. I think third place at the moment has to be in my view, Chris sales opponents tonight in Christopher Sanchez. Sanchez is a great year for the Phillies 2.52 ERA. The peripherals would say he's been a bit lucky and he has and there's no question about that. Certainly not as night and day as the peripherals for Eduardo Rodriguez, which are a little bit more stark. And there is an argument for another picture over both of them who I'll get to momentarily. But I want to talk about Sanchez first because he deserves it. This is a guy who viewed as a swing-ish five starter for a number of years and he's a combination of physical growth and growth of his arsenal and most significantly growth of his command for a guy who is very scatter armed. And now all of the sudden has one of the lowest walk rates at baseball, operates very consistently

29:56on the edges of the strike zone. And really his game is getting people to make bad swing decisions and they do against Sanchez more than just about any other starting picture in baseball. He has really a three-pitch arsenal, two and a half pitches against varieties especially where it's 85% sinkers and changeups even third time through the order. The sinker is really more of the set up pitch. It gets it hard at times but the changeup is devastating and for a guy that throws it almost 40% of the time, it's incredible how little he's given up off of that changeup. Now as I mentioned before, the peripherals have some holes in them. They're not as perfect as some of the other pitchers. XBA is right around the average 236. Average exit velocity against them is well below the average, hard hit rating as them is well below the average, bow rated against them as about the average. So the damage limitation, even for a guy with a 58% ground ball rate, has not been pretty.

30:58But he's still striking out 28% of guys which is really good. It's a little less than sale. The average rate is only slightly worse than sales and a bit better than Miz. Still getting lots of swing and miss especially on that changeup just gets tremendous with. And the slider when he limits his in and to left and has been a very effective pitch as well. So a guy who at times was really a two-pitch pitcher has become more of a true three-pitch guy which is really helps his ascendancy from very good pitcher to some pitcher that some regard as an ace. You know, whip is high. It's 1.19. And that's just because he gives up a lot of hits and he's been particularly vulnerable to right handed to hitters this year. For reference, lefties are OPSing 357 against them. That's a 155-171-186 slash. He's given up one home run to left handed hitters all year. So that's on 165 hitters by the way. Three walks, one hunger, 62 strikeouts, 0.60 or with.

32:02As righties, it's a 283-33404 slash. He's given up 145 hits and 127 innings to righties. That's 13 homers. That's 13 of his 14 home runs allowed. If coming against righties, he's walks 36 right-handers compared to three lefties. And the strikeout rate is actually not that dissimilar. It's 140 strikeouts on under 27. And he's compared to 62 strikeouts in 46nings. So of course, a bit better in slushed handers, but not night and day by any means. That's really just because he's throwing even more changeups, which is his best pitch to the righties. Now you could say Debbie Downer here, I'll... Honestly, I don't really care about the left-right splits when it comes to saw-young. I think if you want to argue picture power rankings or who do I want in a playoff game or game seven of the World Series or five years in the future, whatever. I think the split-met numbers matter quite a bit because it's aptitude to be able to control

33:06right-handed and left-handed guys. And of course, in a playoff series, somebody faces the Phillies with Sanchez and another saw-young down-ballot mentioned worthy left-hander in Hazel Sosato. You see a lot of teams stack right-handed hitters. And if you are vulnerable and going to let opposing hitters OPS 750 against you with a 280 batting average, you're going to get into a lot of trouble. So again, we're not a knock on Sanchez, who is, in my opinion, the clear third place for our runner. In fact, I would go as far as to say, I think that it should be unanimous Mizorowski, unanimous sale, and pretty close to unanimous for Sanchez and third. I think this is as clear a card as the top three as we've had in recent years. Now, despite Sanchez's great numbers, if you want to make an argument for Yoshino Miyamoto, I'm open to it. And the reason why I'm open to it, well, Yamamoto has made three fewer starts and deference to the Dodgers using a six-man rotation, which on the face of it is to accommodate Shoheotani,

34:10and that's really the predominant reason why the Dodgers have used his six-man rotation. Also to keep their starters in general fresh and Yamamoto himself is used to pitching on extra rest as well, although as we've seen, doesn't need extra rest to perform, which the playoff's last year were a perfect example of it. But he's only thrown ten fewer innings and three fewer starts. So he's averaging more by way of innings pitch for a start. Not stragging out as many guys, giving up more home runs, similar walk rate. For me, the innings pitch for a start is a nice tiebreaker, but I don't really agree with those who will say Yamamoto should be ahead of Sanchez because of innings pitch for a start. When in reality, that extra day is helping him a lot. I think that if I'm not necessarily saying the Sanchez would benefit from being on Yamamoto schedule, but I'm fairly sure that Yamamoto would have a tougher time doing what Sanchez does in terms of his normal, normal, every fifth day.

35:10And the Phillies have kind of stuck to that, not to the way they did last year where they would skip the five-starter. And, ceaselessly, their five-star this year for much of the season was an auto loss, and painters would better, so it's not quite that anymore. But I think the circumstances around Sanchez, the Si Young Award is not dictated into the vacuum. And for that reason, I'm taking Christopher Sanchez and third, I think for quite clearly. Now, I'm going to be bold here, and I'm going to say Yorad deserves fourth place. And yes, the peripherals are what they are, the strike out rate is minuscule, 167 innings. For me, there's a few things here. First of all, his performances in big games against big opposition for the diet and facts has been immaculate. The part of the byproduct for wise peripherals are ugly is that his strike out to walk ratio, which is, by the way, as reliable of a predictor or future success as any composite peripheral

36:11stat. And you just sort my strike out to walk ratio. It's as good of a mirror of YRA as feedback, feedback, Ciera. But Yorad does a lot of it on purpose. And you know, without delving into a whole, a, a audio essay on why Yorad has been as good as he's been, I obviously have to explain why I have him in fourth place. And the walks are strategic walks, the lack of strikeouts are strategic strikeouts, the fact that his fly balls leave the ballpark at a disproportionately low rate is not an accident. It is intentional. Eduardo Rodriguez has a unique ability that a lot of guys do not have at this point in time to pitch to contact situationally. It's not really something you see most pictures do where he is attempting to get hitters

37:13basically to put the ball in play within the first few pitches of every at bat softly, except for when he doesn't need it. And that's like, I will, I'll try, I try to get strikeouts when he needs strikeout. Sure. It's more of the aggressively attempting to not get strikeouts in circumstances where he doesn't need it. And that's why I don't really ding him for the walks. I don't ding him for the strikeouts as much. Now yes, in terms of future success, is it exceedingly unlikely that he'll be able to maintain it two and a half ERA long term, striking out six and a half Bernanine and walking about three. It is. It's it's unlikely. I think he could be an effective pitcher. I think he could be in the low threes. I'm not so sure about two and a half. It's very difficult to sustain numbers this high. But ultimately, as we've seen, it's a results business. When you take into account that, you know, the peripherals are definitely unfair to him. They account for or do not account for a lot of the things that he is good at for the old heads of records. Good. The innings pitch is good.

38:14And the ERA is really good. He's been clutched for a team that has needed him more than the fillies of needed scientists who are cruising to a playoff birth at this point. Certainly more than the Dodgers needed Yamamoto who are cruising obviously as they always are to play off birth. And more than, you know, it's unfair to say because chase burns is not. It's not his fault as it's not K. Diwali, Nolan McClain, except for his fault that their teams are out of it. But chase burns doesn't have the benefit of being part of a playoff race. I erode every start for him. They need him to pitch like an ace and he's done it against top teams. And debatably, the toughest division, the pigeon and baseball, there's some argument to be made there. It really depends on on how the course fields start shape up. But he's had multiple starts against the Dodgers where he shoved against them. So I'll give him plenty of credit for that. Now I'm talking about the down ballot after that. I think at the moment I'll take Yamamoto for the reasons outlined Hazel's Lasardo has

39:16been elite. And for all of the crap on his is the mentality, the meltdown innings, that hasn't really happened as much this year. It really, it was the last year thing of a couple of starts. And he's almost at 170 innings again in 20 in 20 games started. The peripherals are actually better than Christopher Sanchez is peripherals across the board. Strike out rate is tremendous. And overall striking out more than Sanchez, sure, yeah, the walks are a bit higher. It can be scattered all over the place, but gets tons of swing and miss. The fastball, when it's at this level of 97 plus is very difficult to square up. And I think deserves credit of getting down ballots, a young consideration. He is a guy who gets very little credit because of Wheeler and Sanchez. But I don't think it's crazy to say that he is the best clear three starter in baseball.

40:19I think that if you were to take all the guys that are okay, this guys are third best starter and agreed upon. He's the best three now, but like the Dodgers have like 15 guys that you could argue is their three. And at the end of the day, Otani fully healthy. I'll still take over Luzardo, but you could argue Otani's DA's and then like who's actually the three. There could be a debate there. So I guess I'll just say outside of the Dodgers because that's cheating. Outside of the Dodgers, he's the he's the best three starter in the sport at the moment. So and again, freeze not healthy. I'm still honestly taking my current vehicle. So going through I have the list of the others just to give you the month. Nolan McLean, another guy who's been tremendously underrated who I'm going to put next and McLean 155 in his 27 star cheap pitches tonight. So again, figure 28 be around 160, 162 innings, ERA 3.06 peripherals a little bit higher,

41:21the strike out rate has been tremendous. Again, he has walked more people than you'd have liked to see. And it's clear that McLean is going to be an ace in the big leagues. Really the what's going to keep him from that as long as he is a very good, but not true ace to your pitcher. It is not only the walks, but the in zone command. His arsenal is very debatably the best diverse arsenal in all of baseball, doing it a plus plus singer, a cutter sweeper, change up curveball, even a throwing kind of an alternative slider in there at a time to time. Now the sweepers had some problems. That is going to have to be diagnosed in the offseason. But really every one of his pitches outside, again, the sweeper has to be worked outside of the four seem fastball. The singer curveball, a change up cutter slider, all profiles plus offerings gets tremendous swing and miss on them.

42:28But he's a little too all over the place. And he's been great at getting called straight through his this year for on him, sinkers back to our breaking balls. But he's not been quite enough on the plate to get high levels of chase. And he has the stuff to get high levels of chase. And once that happens, and of course, there's no guarantee it will. He needs to continue to improve from an in zone command. This is a guy who can and will, if he does it, win a Siam award or Siam awards plural. Even as is 112 is his whip, which will tell you something. If you look at the batting average against them, I mean, he's allowed 114 hits and 155 innings. That is incredible, incredible numbers. Obviously, yes, the walks, not the best. But the numbers at all as a whole are really good. And depending on what your definition of good or bad luck is, some of the peripherals would say ZRA should be a bit higher. If you want to look at the risk stats, maybe ZRA should be a bit lower.

43:30He's been fantastic this year. Another guy deserves downbound situation, consideration. But that little stretch in May, I think kind of pings in behind Luzardo. And the fact that Luzardo's peripherals are superior. Last guys to mention, Kagevovallis had a tremendous run for the nationals. Not quite a little of the other guys, but it's great to see him scraping out tons of guys and not walking loads either. San Diego Contra has been marvelous for the Marlins and significantly 195 in two thirds innings pitched. The volume from Sandy, I think is what makes it worth it. We just need to get Sandy on like, if Sandy, if the Cubs go out and get Sandy Alcundra, oh boy, are they going to be a spectacle to behold? Because if he has an elite defense behind him, the volume that he could put up, I mean, it's not inconceivable for Alcundra to put up 250 regular season innings. And that sounds ludicrous. You know, he's going to put up 220, maybe 230 this year on a competitive team,

44:31on a team that can more regularly convert ground balls into outs. It's not impossible for Alcundra to just continue to chuck up early ground balls. Yeah, he's not striking out tons of people. He's not walking tons of people either though. And just rely on your defense to put it in play. He keeps it on the ground. He is a total horse. Can throw tons of pitches. He's efficient in doing so. And I think the sky is the limit, especially in a point of the year where you're getting rewarded for that volume. Last one I think that deserves some mention that we haven't discussed this fraction of the cast craft. Another guy who's been okay, go right after people, doesn't walk people at all, which I love, has gotten quite a bit more volume than people have expect. I own him in so many leagues and have really reaped the rewards for it. And yeah, it's a tremendous season. I think you're going to see his ADP soar into the top 100 next year. We'll see as to whether he's worth what he is in the future.

45:33It's important to note, as high as I've been on him, it's not necessarily always a wise idea to then overcorrect and say, oh, well, I was all over him with his ADP in the mid 200s. Therefore I'm going to go draft him at 60 if that's the reins of next season. But next season's next season, Ashgrass have a wonderful year. I think we'll get some down ballot consideration. The American League is a very legitimate debate. And for those who either believe that Cam Schletler or Dylan C's should be winning the CY Young Award, I have no issue with that argument. Now I do think there is a clear performance versus results conundrum that we have with this right now. And that C's has performed better and Schletler has had better results. Here's the array is better, 2.04 to 2.25. He has more innings pitch, 1.171 innings to 156 innings.

46:35The rest of his numbers as a whole, as strikeouts, volume wise, record, etc. are better for Schletler. He has fewer walks. It's very nice to him if you look on the surface of things. Have you want to look at the rate stuff? Seas, better XERA, better FIP, better XVIP, Sierra. He has more innings pitch per start. Favorite him a lot better. He's missed a couple of starts on the IEL. Short Stint, he has 26 starts, 156 innings pitch. His strikeout rate is much better than Cam Schletler. And if you look at the allocation of Seas' innings, many of his innings have come in closer games than the games where he's kind of been taken out soon. I think the best example was his last start against the Guardians when the team was up by, I think, believe nine runs at the point where they removed him. He was at 6.83, he could easily throw him two more. And he has, on occasion, thrown crazy high pitch counts this year, something I give

47:38a guard or a tree gets credit for as well. But they choose not to. And he shouldn't be punished for that in this voting. Now Schletler has done the same thing on a cave. He has gone deep and do some very crucial games to the Yankees. And whether voters, how much voters buy into a young player, hyped player doing it in New York, how much does that add to Schletler's case? I think it probably does. I think it does help to be in New York and perform. I think it hurts to be in New York and to fail. But Schletler is certainly performing. It's a little bit flashier from a velocity, but not as much from a stuff perspective with Cam. I part of me also wonders how much of the hype from the land of last season, the fact that he's lived up to that is necessary is going to help him. The profile is a whole, though, is great.

48:39Like, the damage limitation is not been elite. You're never going to get truly elite damage limitation and throwing, you know, fastballs like 90% of the time is forcing cutters, sinker all the time for him. Now, you know, cease. It's really just the walks on his and, you know, both pictures have tremendous numbers otherwise. They're not really giving up any hits. Seize a little bit more. So the walk rate is obviously much better for Schletler as a result. Wipe is a bit better. I am giving just the edge to Cam Schletler. But again, I view this as like a 55, 45 race at the moment. And enough that one start could swing the pendulum as a result. Now, that's why I recommended betting Dylan C's despite the fact that I think Cam Schletler is the winner at the moment. The fact you can get cease plus 210 in a 55, 45 situation and I view it that way.

49:39I will see whether the voters agree. I know there are plenty of voters right now that believe Dylan C's is the front run. And of course, things will change. C's might have a couple bad starts and he goes out of the race. Schletler may have a couple bad starts. He gets out of the race. A couple of other guys could theoretically search forward. Don't think there's a ton of room for it given the environment of these two. But it's possible. Now, aside from that, Parker Messick, I think in my view is the third place guy. ERA there's a decent gap. It's 2.25 and C's to 2.46 for Messick to 2.82 for Sonny Gray in fourth place. And Messick's peripherals are really good. He's a strikethroer. He's a guy who is far less velocity than command. But it's not really pure command. It's a lot of stuff, just underrated stuff. He throws tons of fastballs, 40% force embers at the top of the zone.

50:40And guys don't hit it pretty hard. He's really able to get solid strikeout to walk numbers as well. He's not giving up copious amounts of fly balls despite throwing tons of fastballs. And he's got a diverse enough arsenal. It's 40% fastballs. But then there's some change up singers, cutters, curveballs, sliders mixed in with that devastating force ember, which has really been leaned on as much as any pitch in baseball. It's force embers at the top of the zone is his game. And it's a funky-ish type of delivery, a funky or angle, not the biggest guy in the world. More of a stronger guy than a taller guy and only six foot. But it creates a very difficult look for hitters and they do not hit his fast. The characteristics of the fastball are very good. It's tremendous induced vertical break at times 20 plus inches of induced vertical break, which is the elite only averaging around 94 on the pitch.

51:42So it's not like he's blowing people away velocity, but it works. Now he's not in the category of the other two. Doesn't get the same kind of strikeouts. Walks are a bit worse than Schlipper. It gives up some more hits. It's a it's kind of just an overall little bit of a worse profile. But the fact that he doesn't give up a ton of hits and the walks are under control means those whip is 1.02, which is actually a little bit better than Dillon Cs and up there in the American League. So I think he's in third. The crazy part to me is he may finish third in the Sai Young and not when rookie of the year, which is almost incomprehensible. Now if it were up to me, I personally would support him for rookie the year. Realistically though, from the Guardians perspective, that PPI incentive carries over. He finishes in third place in the Sai Young race. He gets the same subject, the same prospect promotion incentive, draft pick that they would get if Messick won rookie the year.

52:44So from a draft pick perspective, third place, Sai Young is just as good. Now a couple guys on a seals in my opinion, fourth place would be Drew Rasmussen and Rasmussen's had a great, great season. Now a number of the raised guys have had some trouble with his thing healthy. Rasmussen in prior seasons was not an exception of that, but it's great to see him back on the field consistently and avoiding injury. He's not had to spend any extended time away. They've obviously kind of moderate his innings a bit. 146 innings pitch over 26 starts less than some of the others. The breakout rate is pretty solid, 26%, only a 4.7% walk rate, which is tremendous. Damage control has been great. Another great all-round profile delivered by another elite shape, not super crazy velocity, forcing fastball. It is a bit harder, about 95 and a half, 96 miles an hour.

53:46So it's not quite as low of a Velo as Messick, but it's really a similar type of idea, and that you have a not as bigger type of burly, shorter-ish, right-hander, and Messick's case obviously left-hander, with a lot of fastballs at the top rail of the strike zone, and then a mix of sinkers, cutters, change of curveballs. He's got a sweeper. He likes to mix in on rare occasion to the right-handed hitters. Now a little bit more diverse in the arsenal. It's a similar profile. He doesn't quite have the ERA. He doesn't quite have the volume of Parker Messick. I don't personally give even a solitary crap about win-loss record. I don't think it's even slightly relevant. There are so many better ways to evaluate starting pitchers. It's arbitrary and a little bit dull. So I personally don't care. But Ratsune is 14 and 5 Messicks 11 and 8.

54:47So in the older times, I mean, hell, I, Sonny Gray, who I would have in fifth place, is 16 and 4. It could be that, John Assey probably would have been the Saiyung Award when he was 15 years ago. Gray has been great. Make no mistake about it. I'm not having him win because he's not been deserving of some level of accolades. He's not had a Saiyung type season though. And truthfully, he hasn't really been the best performance pitcher on the Boston Red Sox. He's not walking people. Strike out rate is a bit below league average. And as a result, the hits have certainly come below league average, XBA. And as a result, 1.18 whip is not quite as pretty. 143 innings over 25 starts. It doesn't quite have the same volume either. But a 2.82 ERA obviously 16 wins. Yippee for whatever that's worth. Damage limitation has been really good. And he's pitched some really big games and some really important times for the Red Sox. Now, when you're pulling off this type of season resurrection as the Boston Red Sox

55:51have, there is a very little room for error for your big boy starting pitchers when you're going on those types of runs. And not only before, but during and after those runs, your starters have to be on point. You cannot afford clonkers. And Gray has avoided that this season. And that's partially why he gets that accolade. And that's partially why ZRA is 2.82. And that's partially why he's getting the type of plot. It's from Red Sox fans as he has. I think outside of the top echelon of starting pitchers, there's plenty of guys. And, truthfully, I think there's a bit of a drop off in performance wise from Rasmussen to Gray. But other guys that deserve some mention, I totally, as obviously I mentioned before, I'll stick to qualifiers though. And totally at the moment is not a qualifier. Nick Martinez is going with the strikeout no one and walk no one. And they put the ball in play. And his results have been tremendous.

56:53He's really kind of, I wouldn't say resurrected his career, but created almost his career. As this guy who's going to be almost elite result adjacent, but miss no bats. I mean, his with rate against him is 17%. And the strikeout rate is 14%. Like that's minuscule, but he only walks 3% of the hitters he faces. A lot of pop ups, not a ton of ground balls doesn't give up party baseballs. He puts it in play early and often. I will say, I don't know how much of the fact that his RAs 2.99 is due to lack of exposure. But for a guy with 91 strikeouts and 153 innings fish, which is an almost incomprehensible low number by modern standards. As efficient as he can be, I would like to have seen those innings pitch got a bit a bit higher. Like he could on reasonable pitch counts certainly have done 180, 190 innings pitched with that strikeout rate and not been crazy over. I know he's 36. He's had some injuries in the past.

57:55But it's not incomprehensible. Whips 1.10 been a bit lucky on that in from a hits perspective. That's fine. Raise play good defense. Second in a number of defensive metrics behind the Chicago Cubs, where I buy far the best defensive team in baseball. But the Rays can pick it to and that also has helped him greatly. That lack of exposure I think is the best argument, even more than the lack of strikeouts to kind of knock him out of that top five where you would otherwise be ERA wise. Now Sean Burke has been inconsistent at times. Is there some level of acknowledgement for taking a step forward and bringing that velocity to the table with a little bit more regularity? Gavin Williams was in the outskirts of this race for a while. X-FIF still loves them. Now really with Williams, it's X-FIF. The reason X-FIF loves them at 2.79 and the others don't is because X-FIF normalizes home run for fly ball percentage. So it deems that every fly ball from the level that the pitcher's control has an equal

58:59probability of leaving the ballpark. And in Williams's case, that's not been the case for his career, but certainly not this year. Now the strikeout rate is great. Strikeout to walk ratio is great. Aught of home runs and that is the challenge for Gavin Williams. Unfortunately, to see that kind of nip him as much as it has, but is what it is. ZRA is 3.81 at the moment. Despite the great strikeout and volume numbers, I think this is a guy who has ace characteristics, has to keep the ball in the ballpark better. And again, I know it's a very tough ballpark to do it in, but he's going to have to find a way to do it to really hit those elite YRAs in the future. And the last name that I think deserves real mention, again, not really like that again, any downbound consideration. But Taj Bradley, not only having some more consistency this year, is he RAs in mid to high threes, kind of consistently across the board and towards the YRA predictors. Yeah, the wall he walks to many guys, strikes out, strikeouts are great, damage control,

1:00:01not great. I'm just excited to see that a velocity for Taj Bradley has climbed and we've seen some triple digits with consistent consistency for him, which I think makes him a very intriguing option for dynasty purposes, especially. You know, dynasty wise, a lot of these down ballot type guys, McLean, Taj Bradley, et cetera, are the intriguing ads, whereas someone like Nick Martinez and Eduardo Rodriguez are really more of your cell highs, where you should really not care about results at all when it comes to offseason trading, dynasty and drafting next year. It's got to be full process. At the end of the day, process and performance is the biggest indicator and most accurate indicator of future results, more than current results. So I obviously give the credit to guys like Erod and Nick Martinez, particularly Erod, who's a special, special year, but know that with that elite season comes with a significantly

1:01:03lesser probability of repeating it than even guys with drastically worse numbers. I didn't mention any relief pitchers today and that was intentional. I feel like the relief race at one point might have been relevant for Mason Miller, who's been fantastic. And there's no question about that. He's having one of the great reliever seasons, but a little bit more vulnerable as the season has gone along, which is kind of to be expected. It wasn't going to be that untouchable. But I think we'll get some down ballot consideration, hence why I'm even mentioning his name, but is realistically, once you start to have standout guys, Mizorowski being an obvious candidate, one of the better side young winners we would have had in recent years, if he keeps it up, then you can't really consider relievers unless they're doing something like crazy, volume wise, which Miller is not. So he is out of the race for that reason. We'll get into MVP stuff at some point in the next week, later episode, but we'll also

1:02:08significantly try and continue to keep up today with our start and sit features. We'll have a player feature from myself out in the next couple of days. Obviously, waiver wire content, blurred feed content, ad ethos, fantasy, BB pitching guides. It's, it's the home stretch now. A few weeks left in baseball. Hopefully your real life team is doing well, whether they are or not, we've got you from the fantasy side here and want to see as many titles as possible. One of the most gratifying things to see. I don't really even care too much about my own, but it's great to see people that I've just got into fantasy baseball, you know, been listening to XYZ and seeing people bring home some, some virtual or in some cases, literal silverware is very gratifying to see. So I definitely hope to see as many as possible have to have a nice end of season victory lap on that does happen. Anyways, until Monday, which Paul will take over for you then, until next time, this is

1:03:11the sports, ethos fantasy MLB today podcast presented by Fandall. Thanks for listening and have a nice weekend. Peace out.