Examining Clash Between Bulls & Bears on Apple, Offering AAPL Options Trade

0:00We're back in Morning Trade Live. Let's focus on Apple. Moldable analysts pointing to a potential new product launch later this year. More on that in a second with Marley, who's back with us. The stock is moving higher along with the overall market today, but has experienced some weakness to start 2026. The stock is down 5% this month and more than 10% from the old time high of $288.62 a share from December 3rd of last year. There's Marley. Hi, Marley. Welcome back. Thank you so much for joining us. We really missed you. Obviously, this is the focus of the Morning Trade. Hard to gauge the reaction when we're seeing some risk appetite, particularly for tech again today, but it looks bullish. Just walk us through the notes. It looks bullish and both of the notes are bullish, just by one of them being a price target cut. It's just about the timing, really. It's still a bullish note. So let's go first through this bullish Morgan Stanley note. They released the results of their alpha-wise smartphone survey and it's extremely bullish. They're saying that it's showing that there will likely be an average selling price growth situation for Apple moving forward and also says that Apple is expected to be

1:04the only major smartphone vendor to take share in 2026. Their switching rates also should be improving to about five year highs according to the survey results. Those are supporting what the company says is their bullish fiscal year 26 iPhone shipment forecast. Who notes that the firm remains 3% above the consensus in terms of its fiscal year 26 iPhone revenue forecast. For fiscal 27, there are about 4% above the consensus. That implies the strongest to consecutive years of iPhone growth in more than a decade if they both prove to be true. And just for some perspective, Apple generated about $435 billion in revenue over the last 12 months with a 10% growth rate. So that says that they're supporting that bullish outlook because of that as well. Additionally, the survey showed that 27% of iPhone owners are, quote, extremely interested in a foldable iPhone, which they view as a bullish takeaway. They kept their overweight rating and a $315 price target. So some significant upside from the 252 they're trading at right now. The survey also found that consumer perception of and willingness to pay for Apple intelligence,

2:08though, is deteriorating year over year. But that was the only negative that I really found in all of the survey results. Now, ask for that price target cut. It came from BFA. It's just from $325 down to $320. So a $5 deduction, but still, again, more than $70 off where we are right now. They just lowered that price target, keeping a buy rating here. They said that their checks and age to suggest that that foldable phone that Morgan Stanley was saying many are interested in will likely come out in 2026. Some point this year, conversations with supply chains suggest that it will launch likely in that usual September release time frame. But the base model air and that E model they're saying will likely launch in the first half of 27 based on their supply chain conversations likely in March. Now, because that is a staggered release, they're adjusting their estimates to reflect that staggered launch and associated gross margin changes. So that's why they have this $5 deduction. That $325 price target that they reduce by $5. They only bumped up $5 about a month ago after they reported earnings.

3:11So not a huge change here still bullish from both B of A and Morgan Stanley. They just said their supply chain checks are indicating that it might be a more staggered launch without everything coming out in September. Yeah, and CEO Tim Cook could have been doing his own supply chain checks because he's been over in China most recently. I believe in Chengdu and Beijing as well. So he does tend to sort of pop into factories from time to time. So very telling and interesting times. A lot of tailwinds for Apple it seems thanks so much for breaking down the details. Marley, I'll check it with you a little bit later on the show. Let's trade this name now with Charles Moon stock strategy is over at Prosper trading Academy. So Apple this morning Charles, what would be an example trade that you'd be approaching? Well, I like I like the aggressive stance by the market in the markets by the bulls. I think that they've been looking for this and you know, we could see this risk on rally going on throughout the week. So I'm taking a little bit of a risky play to the upside looking at the March 30 255 strike calls. I want to buy him at 225 or lower I want to risk 50% of the premium.

4:13I feel that if it breaks down below 250, this is going to come all the way back down to test the 200 a moving average. So might as well salvage some premium. Now the markets do go risk on especially if Apple close about 253 today. I think that by the end of the week, they're going to be testing somewhere between 260 to 261 on the upside. So that'll make these calls right around 550 and I think that's a pretty good risk to reward play. It's a lower risk allocation, but you know, Apple's finally starting to show some life today. And again, if they can follow through coming off that 200 a moving average, we can see a pretty snappy push here in the near term. OK, good look at Apple there currently trading up 1.7% alongside its other mag 7 cohort, but just thoughts on the overall market. I mean, it looks like we're getting a bit of taco trade volumes this morning. Charles, just walk us through your thoughts here. Yeah, and you, you know, when we come to the taco trade, it's usually pretty darn good for the markets for at least a few days.

5:14Now, there's, you know, unfortunately, a lot of news, a lot of disputing of, you know, what President Trump had said from Iran, but, you know, President Trump has actually come back this morning and reiterated what, you know, he said initially this morning to make the markets jump. So it's kind of a way and see, you know, it's still an extremely difficult environment to have risk on for more than, you know, 24 hours. But, you know, at some point in time, you got to make that decision and try and take advantage of the volatility. You know, this is a market that's trading in all directions up down sideways. And, you know, even intraday wise, after this big jump that we've kind of gotten flat a bit from, you know, the opening bell. We'll see if we can actually continue to extend, but, you know, this is a market that's keeping everybody on their toes. And I still, you know, you know, we'll tell traders to remain vigilant, you know, don't be too based in one direction and be very flexible in trading. Both up and down right now, because that's just kind of how the markets are going.

6:17Yeah. Yeah, it seems like a market that really just wants to rally so sensitive to any headline, but we do need to see those words turn into reality, so stay nimble in the meantime. Thanks so much, Charles. Really appreciate your import, Charles Moon, their stock strategy as a prosperity trading academy.