Europe Talking Itself into War with Russia /Lt Col Daniel Davis

0:00We seek a diplomatic resolution to this conflict, not the kinetic resolution to this conflict. And that's always what President Trump seeks, and that's why Jared and I are here. That was Steve Whitkoff in Ukraine over the weekend, laying out what he says is America's objective and goal in this trying to get the result of the Russia Ukraine war. And he's looking for a diplomatic. We're not looking for a kinetic. That's President Trump's going. Now listen, we got to just start off from the beginning of saying, what is the purpose here? Why now? I think we talked about this even in our previous show yesterday. President Trump had entered into office. It was going to be a day and then it was 100 days and all that kind of stuff. And then it was a year. And then we quit trying. And then in June of this past summer, we picked the side and it was Ukraine. Now the sudden we seem to have gone back again to, I don't know, maybe we should just find a non-kinetic way out of it because that's always President Trump's objective.

1:01But we have to wonder why is President Trump now initiating here? Was this President Trump's initiation or was it the Russians' initiative? It appears that at least from conflicting information, but from best we can gather here, this was a US initiative. So that means it was probably President Trump's initiative. One possible reason could be that he realizes that there's disaster in the Middle East. He's not going to get anything from that. Maybe he can get some signature win that he can put his feather in his cap on, heading into the midterms, which are now really closing in. They're not far away at all anymore. And he may think, you know what, even if I have to give away the store, let's go ahead and move in this direction here so that we can get this war off the table because he's only thinking about, if this is the motivation, President Trump is only thinking about how can I get a benefit at political advantage heading into November, not seeming to be concerned with what the Euphranias may think or what the Europeans may think. And as you're going to see, he also doesn't care about what the Russians think so much

2:04as if long as you can give me some kind of a degree that can give me a win. Maybe he's going to be all in on that. We'll find out in the next couple of days because right now there's a lot of different interpretations that could be true. And given the evidence, those could be at play here as well. But we'll find out based on what actions happened probably later this week or the next couple of weeks, that's really going to tell us where President Trump's mind is that right now and what his actual motivations are. But listen, all the parties in this have very different views. And if anybody thought that because President Trump reinitiated diplomacy here, that the Russians are going to somehow do something different or that Zelensky's ill-fated 40-day offensive campaign that he did this summer was going to have some sort of compulsion effect on the Russians and they're going to make them change their mind and do something different than they had over the previous, I don't know, four and a half years. Don't hold your breath for that one either. And we're going to see exactly why here in just a second.

3:06But I want to stick with the Whitkopf and Kushner duo because that's the central characters that were the center of this whole current round of diplomas here, both in Moscow and then secondarily in Kiev. And I just showed you what Whitkopf was saying is the primary. Let me show you what Jared Kushner thinks is the primary motivation for President Trump and of course, as everyone knows, he's just looking for a win-win. So from President Putin's perspective, I think he has certain objectives. The express is that he wants to achieve. But obviously there are very different aspirations. He has for his country that can also be achieved once this is concluded. And we'll continue to have a positive dialogue in order to fund the pathway to get there. President Trump comes from the business world, which is a business world. We think about things in the context of when, how do you create opportunities for both sides to do what's in their interest. War is negative, everyone lives for more. Whereas business and peace is positive, so hopefully you can find big benefits from that

4:08in a big way. So the role that Steve and I play in. I couldn't help but think. And I'm sorry for the bad audio there. I don't know why. I mean, he had the mic right in his hand. I'm not sure why it's down to like he was speaking from the backside of a tunnel. But hopefully you can either hear or read the text underneath that. But he's saying, we're looking for win-win opportunities in war. It's a lose-lose. Everybody loses. We'd rather go for more constructive things. And I couldn't help but notice, especially as I watched at the second time, Zelensky's body language and facial reactions. Because when you say, everybody loses for more. But we're looking for a win-win kind of a thing. I can't imagine that Zelensky has any interpretation or definition of a win from his perspective. Anything short of Russia changing 180 degrees and doing exactly what he wants to do. Pretty much anything else he would view as a loss. And you can tell from some of his comments made during the weekend that his comment was, I'm still looking, using some of the same language he has. But if the war keeps going on through the winter, if we don't end it, and the fact that

5:12he even asked that if question, left open a whole slew of interpretations of why he said that because he had never, at any point, talked about if the war continues into the next period, then I want X1Z. He just said he wants X1Z. So obviously, somebody's talking about into a Z or about something that could be bringing it to an end before that time. So he's still thinking about, now he's not saying, well, look, let's at least get through the winter. And then we'll figure it out. Actually, he doesn't even say then. He just says, let's get through the winter because he realizes what an extraordinarily difficult time this is going to be for the winter, especially on top of the damage of the previous three winters, the lack of repair that had been done in the intervening time from last year, the lack of air defense that he has now, the positive of it, and now the increased ballistic missile inventory that the Russians have, this is going to be a really bad one. We don't know yet how bad the weather is actually going to be. That remains to be seen, but it's typically pretty harsh in that part of the world.

6:15And if you don't have any heating, any electricity for heating or any gas or steam for some of these unit top operations, it's going to be some real trouble here. So Zelensky is not at all thinking about any kind of compromise. He was still saying, I want to just piece, I want to piece where I can be guaranteed that there's not going to be anybody coming back in fighting us again in a few years. At least he didn't say anything about I'm still looking to get into NATO. He didn't say a word about getting into the EU, any of that other kind of stuff. So that still leaves open. Actually, pretty wide, the door, the probability that he's being told behind the scenes by Whitcroff and Kushner, this deal's coming to an end. So I'm really starting to lean into the belief that the Ukraine side is wobbling man power wise. It's wobbling defensive wise with the absence of air defense capabilities. It's wobbling financially because the Europeans are running out of money to even print

7:19to give to them. And so they can see the riding is on the wall. At least in reality, I think that's the case. But as we're going to see from the European side, Kayi Callis, I think it was earlier today, does not seem to be on the train that Whitcroff and Kushner are in a inherently present trooper on of looking for a win-win end to the war. Russia is not really interested in peace, the opposite. When they are losing the initiative on the ground, they are bombing civilians from the sky. So at the moment, we don't see that Russia is really interested in peace. What is worrying is that the threats are coming actually closer to Europe. We saw the attacks on life sick and we have seen these sabotage acts and the threat really increasing in Europe. At the same time, the parties that are sort of blind to this threat and say that we should not do anything with this because it's not our concern, our gaining ground.

8:23Wow. Who do you think she meant there at the back? Did they'll back into that comment there that those who think that we shouldn't do anything, it shouldn't go and fight anymore are losing ground? I mean, there's only really one constituency that's saying that and that's 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue here in Washington, DC. I don't know if you've heard of that guy named Donald Trump. He's the one that's initiated all this. So the fact that she's coming off right out of the box and saying, I don't think that there is a negotiated settlement. You just saw Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkopf going to Moscow, then going to Kiev and saying to all kinds of fanfare, we're looking for a diplomatic way out, war is a lose, lose, et cetera. And then the first word at a calluses mouth, yeah, there's not going to be any peace. We're not wanting to that. And that kind of matches what many of the other European just saying to include the German chancellor and as well as the French president and of course Andy Burnham, the British Prime

9:25Minister. All they want to be talking about is just we're still 100% behind Ukraine. We're going to give them everything we want, everything they want, and we're going to keep going down that path. And at what point does any kind of reality start seeping in? I mean, I'm sure that a president Trump ascended his two closest, most trusted emissaries to to Moscow and to Kiev behind closed doors and they're clearly telling Zolinsky something different that maybe they might get a clue, there's not going to be any help coming. Now over not there was another after a three day pause in the strikes, which Russia agreed to an air ceasefire so that these negotiations in shuttle diplomacy could be carried off as soon as it was over the three days ended and they immediately went back to striking. So they hit Kiev pretty hard again last night. Lots of K-101 cruise missiles, lots of jet-powered drones and several ballistic missiles. Apparently, to be clear, and by the way, because Ukraine is effectively out of pack two and

10:29pack three interceptors, that means that they don't even get a chance to shoot down the ballistic missiles. But that doesn't mean that they're completely impervious in the sky. They actually have a fairly developed integrated air defense system that can get slower stuff. Like these K-101 cruise missiles, for example, over not the report is that all of the ones that the Russians fired were intercepted. And that could be true because they have the capability with a lot of different, because those are subsonic missiles. They're relatively slow flying. You can actually shoot down with a machine gun. If you have a heavy machine gun in a right place and apparently in many places, the U-Krins does have that kind of network, especially on the outskirts of the capital. They've got some other kinds of manpads and stinger top capabilities. They can bring those down because they're slow enough moving. So they have some air defense, so they're not completely without it. But with the ballistic missiles, they're totally helpless. So it wouldn't matter if they had pack two or pack three, they're still not going to be able to stop the Russian hypersonics.

11:31That's one of the things I've been trying to point out. Number one, we don't have any of those to give. So you're not even going to have a shot at it. And now as many as Russia decides to shoot and not, they're going to get through. I mean, it's pretty much a one-to-one situation here or a vast majority in any case. And then you add in even some of the leakers with periodically some of the cruise missiles get through, some of the jet-powered drones are getting through. They're firing them in some of the areas where they don't have that much air defense. They're getting through. That's never going to stop. It's going to continue on because Russia is able, it's a math number. It's a game, a number of games. Russia can saturate that. So they're going to continue to do it. So the Ukraine side is going to continue to just eat in the teeth, missiles or drones, something close to every knot. And there's nothing the Russians can do, the Ukrainians can do to stop the Russians. So at some point, if you're being, if you can see on the battlefield, even if you don't like it, you can see that's the landscape. At the strategic level, in the air, whether you're talking about drones, whether you're

12:35talking about cruise missiles or what you're talking about ballistic missiles, whether you're talking about glide bombs being fired by Russian fighters. However, whichever category you wanted to, they're getting through either some or a lot or nearly all are getting through. And Russia has no shortage of production. So it's continuing on. So whatever they're expanding, they, according to most reports, are producing more, which means they're just stockpiling these things up. So while the Ukraine side and the European side are dwindling in their stocks because they're using more than they're making, the Russians have the opposite situation. They're using a lot and storing up even more, which means their power in relative terms it continues to increase as ours decreases. Now it seems evidence suggests that President Trump is aware of that dynamic and is just looking to make a business decision. This is a losing proposition. I can't win. I can't even pretend much longer because the Russians are going to continue to move over

13:36and at some point they're going to destroy so many things from the air. They're not going to be able to survive on the ground. And I'm going to get to the ground here in just a second. But what is Europe's, where are they thinking? Because if they're trying to follow the United States, they're not following because they're pushing back on it. But I mean, what are they going to do? Or they're going to say, we're going to stand in opposition and Kaya Kallis almost calls out President Trump right there. And then what? Do you think President Trump is just going to eat that insult? Do you think he's just going to never say anything? Is it going to say, yeah, that's fine. I'm going to do this for our country. But if you all want to keep going, I guess you can't. I don't know. Maybe he's going to say that. We'll see. But Europe needs to be understanding and cognizant of the fact that he may do exactly that. He may say, OK, hey, you guys want to do this? You think you can keep fighting because you think Russia can't have a negotiated settlement? Then good on you. Figure it out. You'll do it without any more weapons from us because the issue is not the pearl program

14:37where we sell weapons to Europe and the Europe gives them to Ukraine. We don't have them to give, especially in the categories that they're needing them. We're already running short because of our own war that still hasn't been resolved in the Middle East. So that's not coming. It's not going to come anytime soon, either. I'm talking years. If all the wars ended right now, it's going to be years before we'll have any to give to anybody else. Remember, we had to actually take back missiles that we had some other countries had paid for. We pulled them back, gave them to Ukraine or directed them to Ukraine, and then promised some years later on, we would make new batches and give to these other people. So there's already a deficit. There already in the whole for future production as it is. And believe me, nobody else is going to get anything until our stockpiles have been replenished. So Europe needs to understand that if they want to press this bad position, they may find themselves all alone.

15:39And I mentioned to you that that's what's happening in the air. Well, let me show you what's happening on the ground, too, because there are some things that are happening in there, too. It's not just that the commentary has been that there was a stalemate on the ground, that this year there has been. Well, that's not the case right now. And we're going to start off in the Sumi area. And we haven't done a tactical update in a while. So let me kind of do a lot of that and show you that there has been a lot of progress. So all the way up here in Rizhivka, sorry if I'm mispronouncing that, you see some Russian advances up in this area, even on the far west side of Sumi and up there. But you see this area here, you may recall from the last time we did this, it's considerably more red than it was in the past. Russia continues to make advances here and they're getting ever closer. And I think they're already in drone range into the town of Sumi itself and it's starting to spread. You see that now that they're starting to become entire new categories of red that wasn't there the last time we did this tactical update.

16:41So this all this area up north now eating deeper into Ukrainian territory is moving further to the west and closer to the city of Sumi. Then we go over here into the Karkev area and you see there's been additional movements there too. And again, a lot more red is starting to build up as Russia is moving further. This is probably the biggest development here since the last time we did this, you see that there's a whole northern pocket that is in danger of being cut off from the Ukraine side where the Russians have infiltrated so far deep and moved up into that they're now starting to close off some of these areas here that could literally pinch off all the troops that are in here. And at some point like this happens so many times in this war, the Ukraine side is going to have to face the choice. Do they just continue to fight to the death or do they withdraw all these people before the pocket gets closed here? Because you see there's not much left. This is a significant degradation from the Ukrainian side from the last time we talked

17:43here. And it depends on how much more effort the Russians put into it. But the closer this thing gets to the end, the more they're going to potentially lose thousands and thousands of troops that are up in here, or they're going to pull them out and they're going to give this whole thing away. You can see that this whole thing goes red. You see that that's going to move number one, Cupiance is going to be at more risk from the rear. Allow Russians to move closer and it's just more territory that's going to be lost. This is simple as that. So that's kind of up in the north and that's where things have gone up to this point. So there's some considerable movement there. Let me show you a couple of other areas here. And actually, let me show you one. Let's see. This person was in Leman. Yeah. Now this is one where the Ukraine side actually has had some tactical success. So let's point this out too. This is in the Leman area and everything you see there in the sort of the pink and the light red area through which all these yellow arrows go.

18:44This is a counter-fins of itself, about four months old, that the Ukrainian side has used to move deeper and deeper into what was all that used to be solid red. That used to be Russian controllers. They had moved into the Leman area and were moving to the west. Ukraine had basically stopped them and then they started moving forward. And they continued this day. It's unknown right now whether you're getting closer to the Moscow River for the Russian forces, whether they're going to tighten up and stop the incursion at that point or whether they're actually going to continue to go further. That's clearly their objective. But here's the problem with this. And every single one of these I've been showing you for at least the last three years has followed this exact same path. To include the Kursk offensive which had a huge penetration by the Ukraine side into Russian territory proper. They don't have the troops or the sustainment capacity to do anything with this. So they to their credit this, I don't know if for sure how many square kilometers in that it's a pretty good chunk of land. The Ukraine side did make a sustained push over a long period of time and they have taken

19:49territory back from the Russians. But they can't do anything with it. They don't have the capacity because you see that while they're doing this, it's great for them in formalities, troops that they're moving up in this direction here. But I just showed you up around Karkeev. There's another whole section of Ukraine troops that are at risk of being cut off in the Sumi area. There's additional areas of red for new territory within Ukraine that's being attacked. Ukraine can't stop them. So they're putting all their efforts in it appears here to get some offensive movement and that's good as far as it goes. But that doesn't do them anything for the war. That's the real problem. And then you get down here in the southern part in Zaparizia where again, Ukraine had and this is actually an example of it. Ukraine had gone on counter-finsive down there too and had pushed the Russians back quite of ways. But now then, after blunting that, after a number of months, the Russians have now started pushing back forward again. And now then, they're actually putting pressure potentially onto Zaparizia city itself.

20:51So they absorbed all of the counter-attack and then now the Russians who do have the capacity to sustain these kinds of operations are now starting to have their way with it. So in three of the four major areas, Russia is still moving forward on the ground. On top of everything, I just told you about what's going on in the air. In other words, the bottom line is discontinues to validate what we've been saying for, I don't know, four and a half years, that the Russian side has the balance of power that cannot be overcome. By the Ukraine side, however, temporary tactical advantages they may gain in specific points, they don't have the wherewithal to turn it into anything operational, much less strategic. And then I'm sure that's going to be the same way in the Laman area as well. Even if Ukraine goes a little bit further in the coming months, it just has a limit. They just can't go any further. And the more Russia makes advantages, advances down here in Zaparizia, Sumi and Karkiv, that's going to put more pressure on Ukraine to have to reposition some forces elsewhere, possibly those they're using for the offensive in Laman.

21:51They just don't have enough troops to have any kind of sustained theater level offensive operations as the Russians are doing right now. That's only going to continue. Well, let's take a look at, I showed you what the United States was saying. I showed you what the Europeans were saying about this piece talks. Let me show you what the Russians are saying. Sergei Lavrov went on an interview. I think it was yesterday that I saw on the video this morning, where he's saying, look, we're happy to go diplomacy, but by the way, if we don't go diplomacy, there's another path. If Western diplomacy boils down to holding back countries that put forward reasonable, balanced and compromise-based initiatives, then so be it. If that's the case, then we will achieve our goals not at the negotiating table, which would be preferable for us as anchorage proved. But on the battlefield, as the president has repeatedly stated, okay, that is just black and white. You cannot get any more blunt than that. And for Sergei Lavrov, the cons of a diplomat, he's always used these kind of effusive terms

22:55and claims and statements that led you to believe something, but kind of lift open some diplomatic maneuver room. That's gone. This place he just flat out categorically said, he was trending kind of John Meershamer. John Meershamer says this on our show has said it many times, actually. He said, well, I think he's going to be settled on the battlefield. And now here, Sergei Lavrov now explicitly validates what he said and said we would rather do it diplomatically. But if not, we're going to do it on the battlefield. Let me explain something to you. When he says do it on the battlefield, he does not mean we will take the June 2024 terms, which is the four-oble-ost, the militarization, the notification, neutrality and nonado. If they go down the military path where they conquer it on the ground, they will not stop until they are satisfied that their terms have been met and that their security has been met. Ergo, they will probably go all the way up to Kiev, possibly even more. Odessa, no chance they leave that there.

23:57There's no chance that they just take the four-oble-ost and stop. No chance at all. They basically turned it into a landlocked country already by attacking the port facilities. They will go on to continue because once the dam breaks and there's not enough troops for the Ukraine side to hold them back, there's no reason, there's no logical reason why Russia, having been spurned on all of their diplomatic opportunities, will then just unilaterally stop. Now I understand many of my American colleagues, they don't think that Russia can do this. They think it's just a big boast. It's a bluff. That the Russians look at, took them four and a half years to get this territory here and sure they're making some advances now in three of those four areas. But hey, they lost some in this area and so it'll just keep going that way forever. No, it won't. I've shown you some of the numbers here in the last two or three weeks. Russia has, like I think the number was 10, 15 million more men, a military age from

25:00which to draw than the Ukraine side does. Meaning if this continues on an agroning war of attrition, there comes a breaking point. It's not a linear path. It says, okay, the Ukraine side will continue to know what they've done until they have ground down all of the men and a lot of the women because there's some talk now about forced mobilizing women too, that they'll just go on. So maybe they'll go another three, four years and then finally, they'll be no one left and then they'll just walk into the city of Kiev. It's not how it works. There can come a breaking point. Now I admit that I have said, I thought that the Ukraine side would have already gotten to their breaking point like a year and a half ago. They didn't, they showed that they were resilient. That's not good for Ukraine. It's not good that they proved me wrong there because all they had proven was that that point isn't where the breaking point came. It's still to come. And the longer it takes for that breaking point to come, the greater will be the collapse and the loss of the country. And the fact that the Russians have that many more men and all of that ammunition, they

26:02have both offensive and defensive production capacity and they put it on demons display all the time. The Ukraine now only has some offensive capacity, but they have very limited defensive capacity and it's not going to be turned up. It's not going to replace anytime in this war. So there will come a pace. It's just logical. It's just mathematics. It's military history. They'll come a place where the Russian will put enough pressure on it eventually. They'll just be collapsing a break. And it's also the psychology of the soldiers. They have been profoundly patriotic and incredibly brave and resilient and willing to suffer incredible sacrifices, but there is a limit to the human endurance. And when enough people have died and when enough other people come up, seeing all of these seas of cemeteries throughout the country, there's probably not a family in Ukraine that hasn't suffered loss from this. At some point, they're going to say, I'm not just going to literally commit suicide.

27:05It's no longer patriotism. It's no longer bravery because if there's a chance for your country to survive and you're fighting and maybe you can win, then there's a lot of sacrifice that can be made and people will do that. People throughout history of any kind of nationality. But when you see that you're being asked to throw your life away for a cause that is already passed tense, lost. And then all you're doing is sacrificing your family members' lives and you're sacrificing you so that there won't be anybody to take care of your family. You're going to lose anyway, no matter what. Then there's going to come a point to where people are just going to finally say, no, I'm not going to literally commit suicide because you, Volodymyr Zelensky, will not make the irrational logical decision to save your country or what's left of it. It's so many opportunities and you've squandered them all. You've literally decided not to have a peaceful settlement. And out of this arrogant presumptions believed that somehow there's some miracle, bullet,

28:08magic bullet, military capabilities going to come or that the Russians are going to magically just decide to stop someday. You have sacrificed an entire generation of your men power. Never to be recovered. Already passed tense. So it is foolish to continue going down this path. And now you hear the live raw of an ambiguous, he's saying, this is where we're going. We're going to either get it diplomatically or we're going to take it on the battlefield. And then you went a little bit further in that same interview where he's saying, listen, and by the way, speaking of diplomatic stuff, I mean, he's kind of saying that probably to President Trump is the primary recipient of that statement here. This one, I think, may have been more to the European side because he's saying, listen, whatever they're saying on the European side, they're not going to be able to do that. They're not interested in peace. Everything is unfolding on the real front line. There are troops are making steady, unrelenting progress towards their designated objectives. What you are hearing primarily from Kiev, from other capitals from Washington is all being

29:10done with a single aim to buy some more time so that the crumbling Kiev regime can somehow be propped up again for a while. They are openly saying that they have no means of defending themselves against Russian missiles. Trump realizes that now, if the Americans were to suddenly return to their original proposals as was an anchorage, Europe was simply scared to death back then. They immediately rushed to lobby Trump to prevent him from reaffirming his own initiatives, which Putin had accepted. And so at the NATO summit in June, Macron proudly declared, that's it. We've buried anchorage. Trump is back with us. America is back with us. And we're all united against Russia. And listen, it's recently is June that that is the an accurate assessment as when said the Rubio went forth and said, yeah, we picked a side. Now what in a month later that Rubio backtracked again and said, you know, I can't about actually we actually are looking for a negotiated settlement. And we just want a fair deal.

30:11Meaning we don't even know what we're doing. We don't even know what we want. And it changes from day to day. We reinforce the proposition that will eventually be our undoing because we don't even know and contrast us. No one knows what we mean from time to time. No one knows if we say this today, are we going to mean it tomorrow? And the following week after that is going to be some different thing. Two months later, is it going to be back over here to where it was again? Nobody knows anything about it. I'm talking about our adversaries. I'm talking about our allies. Nobody can trust us. And when nobody can trust you, you're not going to get any deal done anywhere. And then you are literally pushing people into the position of their countries, whether friend or foe to say, we cannot rely and count on anything that comes out of the word mouth of any American. And it's not just Trump, by the way. This goes back a while. They're going to say we're going to have to take matters into our own hands. And that is where the world can get really messy.

31:12Where our interests can start to become sacrificed unnecessarily. There are so many places where we can actually have those. When if the words were matched with actions that I think it was a Kushner and said there that we're looking for win win. If we actually were looking for win win, there is no shortage of great deals that can be found out there. If we were a country of our word that we meant what we said, we meant what we said, harsh to adversaries, we meant what we said, good to our allies. If we actually did those things, there is no shortage of good deals that could have been had that could still be had. But now then the trust has been destroyed. It's in tatters. And so it's going to take a long time of doing it right to even start rebuilding that. But it ain't rebuilt right now folks. So right now the the Iranian side in that in that war right there is not going to listen to anything. Trump says they're not going to believe a word. So they're only going to handle things the way that they can with their economic interest

32:13and their economic capacities and what they can do to influence things and their military capacity. So there's no room for them to have any negotiation with America right now. Russia is going to do exactly what they think that they can. And if they can somehow break some sanity into Europe, they may try that. They're willing to give this a shot even with Jared Kushner and Steve Whitkopf. See if they can talk some sense at least for the moment, at least it's worth a shot from their perspective, but they're counting on nothing happening with that. Instead they're counting on what they can control. They can control oil and gas. They can control their military. They can control their production capacity. And they can control what happens on the front line. They get to call all those shots. And they're going to do whatever they want, need to do to get their objectives and their interest results on the battlefield or on the diplomatic field. But they literally virtually have no possibilities for diplomacy as you heard.

33:16Sergey Lavrov and both of those two sound vats that you showed you. So that means that the likelihood now is that the Ukraine side will be militarily defeated and that Russia will issue at some point, whether that's later this year, whether it's in a year from now or if some miracle Ukraine lasts another two years, I don't see it, but who knows maybe they will. But there is an end. There is an expiration date there because math does still count. The core issues of balance of power, the things that go into building national power do exist, whether anybody likes it or not, and eventually Russia will win. So that's why John Mirschimer likes to always say the war is already lost. That's why you've heard me say dozens of times we have already lost the war. The Ukraine side, the European side has lost the war. They can't get it back. They can't stop Russia. So the only question is how bad is the final toll going to be? How bad is the final defeat going to be?

34:17That's the only question that remains outstanding. And now then Russia will do whatever it thinks it needs to do. It will pay whatever price it needs to to get to whatever in state it chooses. And I promise you that in state won't be something we would prefer. And in the aftermath of that, then you're going to have a world that sees that Russia does what it says for good or ill. And then when they say something, you can count on them. They're actually going to do it. And you see right now they're doing diplomacy all around the world, trying to say, hey, look, we want to deal with you. The Lavrov was, I think yesterday, or maybe it was even earlier this morning, was in the Middle East. He was in Saudi Arabia trying to say, hey, we're trying to make good deals here that's helpful for everybody. We're willing to put bygones aside, words necessary, but we're willing to be practical here. And the Russians will do what they are going to do. So they've grown your great real credibility around the world because they have stood up to the combined weight of the entire West, not just the US, and they're still standing.

35:18And when people, if they get to where I'm arguing it's going to, and they see the collapse of Europe and the collapse of Ukraine and the conquest of Russia, who do you think that the rest of the world is going to be looking to? America, Europe? No, it's going to be a world that's going to favor Russia. In the Middle East, there's already people, John Meershamer last time he was on our show, said that there's some polls and other evidence and studies that show that people all over the world are pulling for you for Iran against us. They want to see us lose because they're tired of the double speak. They're tired of us just taking over because we can, like Venezuela, the threat that we may go into Cuba, the threat that we may go and take the Canada, to make them a force, make them a state or go in in conquer Greenland. They're tired of that kind of stuff. And so if the Iran succeeds and not submitting to us and that they end up calling the shots

36:18in the straight of Hormuz, then our respect and our influence will be further diminished. So now then, because we can't tell the truth on anything because our word means literally nothing, again, just like in Europe, now also in the Middle East, our reputation will be in Tatters, and we'll be on the receiving end of what someone else determines. And then all we can do is pick up the wreckage afterwards to try to make cobble something good out of it, which we're not going to be able to do, by the way, until we learn the lessons, why we're in wreckage in the first place because of our poor choices and because of that our word means nothing. Turns out that there's another part of the world we have to worry about too, and that is China. And at a press conference earlier today, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry says, by the way, we feel the need that we need to clarify our stance on the Taiwan issue. And while a lot of Westerners and Americans love to say that needs to be our next target,

37:20we need to go to war with China over Taiwan. And we're claiming that they're an independent country and that they don't even need to listen to China. China said this. There is but one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. This is an insicable fact evidenced by both history and law. The current declaration issued by China, the US and the UK in 1943 stated in explicit terms that Taiwan is a territory that Japan has stolen from the Chinese and shall be restored to China. The post-term proclamation in 1945 reaffirmed that the terms of the current declaration shall be carried out. These theories of instruments with legal effect under international law have all clearly affirmed China's sovereignty over Taiwan. Hong Kong resolution 2078 solemnly reaffirmed the one China principle which decides to restore all its rights to the people's Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its government as the only legitimate representatives of China to do not in nations. The resolution resolved the wise and for all the question of the representation of the

38:22whole of China, including Taiwan in the UN as a political, legal and procedural issue. It made clear that there is only one seat of China in the UN and there is no such thing as two China or one China, one Taiwan. Taiwan has never been a country and he will never be a country. And for those who may not know, Taiwan, the Republic of China was the surviving component of the Chinese Civil War where the communists took over and eventually got all of mainland and drove off Chen Kai-shek in his government and they took up residence on what the time was called for Mosa and that they later renamed it as Republic of China and they used to claim that they were the legal and the realistic government over all of China they gave up that long time ago. So what we have here is basically the frozen split of 1949 Civil War and as China pointed out here and what they did, they mentioned the 1943 conference in 1945, post-emcomers

39:23conference, what they didn't mention was the 1972 deal with the US to where we had our one China policy and we just said China and Taiwan are all part of one China. We just didn't say who was in charge but we left it ambiguous, etc. But even we agreed with that back then and we certainly know that now then there's lots of rabble ralsers that would love to drag us into a war with China that we can never win and just look if anybody is confused on this point, see also Iran. Little Iran, we used to say was this little power that we could dominate, we never were able to defeat them. They were able to defeat all of our offensive operations, I'm sorry, our air defenses that you were able to defeat them with their offensive operations. Imagine what the Chinese could do if we had into a fight, not an area where we had all kinds of bases that we could project power from or even get relatively close to but if it was all the way over on the other side of the Pacific, then we still have this few

40:25missiles in and now even less than we had before while China has scores more industrial capacity for offensive and defensive missiles and all kinds of categories, drones, a lot more developed in the drone technique technology and they're friting from their front yard, they have all the defensive networks that are involved, we would be crushed. We should just forget about that right now, don't even think about it another day because you can never ever ever defeat China. You can never prevent them from taking Taiwan, you would sacrifice all of our Pacific air and naval fleets in the vain attempt to try to do so, leaving our country gutted and nearly defenseless or nearly so. Don't even try. The Chinese are saying we don't need to, we don't need to find that out but they say we will definitely go to war over Taiwan and they are, anyone with a brain can realize that we have proven our incapacity in Iran and our incapacity of technology wise in Russia,

41:27Ukraine war and know that we would literally be, all our ships would be dropped to the bottom of the sea or ships would be knocked out of the air and our ground troops, all those bases, it's the other thing, this whole forward deployment we have and people wanting to have more Asia bases, all it's going to be is more missile magnets, just like it was for all these countries in the Middle East, none of which we could protect, none of them, it would be even worse over there. So China is laying out, this is our legal framework, this is our firm opinion, you can say, well, Taiwan has a different view and certainly they do, we're talking about reality here. If they move in, that's a decision that Taiwan can make, but Taiwan has to make that call. If they want to go independent, that's called Taiwan has to make and Taiwan has to be ready to pay the consequences for their actions or they have to be willing to pay the price to see if they're willing to pay the price to become independent and to be declared so. Or if they want to say no, we're going to do something different, we're going to try

42:29and find another pathway that keeps us sovereign and free even if not in name, but in reality, then that's a course they can put, but that's one they can choose. We can't choose it for them and everybody needs to be crystal clear, nobody more so than the people if they pay. In that government need to understand there is no umbrella that's from the United States is going to keep them safe. There's no cavalry coming right into the rescue. We're not going to go to nuclear war against China over Taiwan, never going to happen. So they need to understand that there is a path to continue freedom for them. If not independence in name, independence in reality, but that they don't have to go to war over it. And then they can work over time to see if they can come to some kind of a mutually acceptable agreement between the two sides. That's again, that's something they can get done. It's not ours to do. It doesn't make any difference. And I'll just categorically state this, I don't care what anybody in Washington, D.C.

43:31or anywhere else in the United States, what you think about whether that should be the case or not, whether Taiwan should or shouldn't have the ability to declare independence. I don't care. It doesn't matter what it is. It's not even me. Reality doesn't care your opinion means nothing. And if people listening to you is going to get them killed and to have them not only not free in name, but also destroyed in the process, then you are wicked. And if they listen to you, they'll be stupid. And so I hope that neither of those things happen. But in any case, anybody who's howling about this, I could care less because you're a wicked person. If you're advocacy and what you think should happen on the ground in Taiwan, we'll get Taiwanese killed and will have them losing the freedom that they currently have. So their position would be materially worsened if they listened to you and America's national security would be gutted if anybody in the White House listens to you.

44:33Not help us at all if either of those two things happen. That's the reality of it, folks. That's where we are right now as a nation and that is the limits of our power. We don't get to just call shots that we want. This is not 1992 anymore. You hear me say that a lot. It needs to be said a lot more because there are apparently people who don't get it. And if they get, if actions are taken based on this deeply flawed belief, they're going to get a lot of people killed and it's going to be bad for our country. That's what you need to know. Appreciate you guys. Look forward to seeing you tomorrow. We'll be with you then on the Daniel Davis deep dive.