Episode 21 Secrets Of The Stormy Seas

On this week’s episode, Dan Zehner interviews an expert on oceans and ocean storms. Dr. Philip Orton studies ocean physics and evaluates coastal problems, such as storm surge, at the Stevens Institute of Technology. Growing up on Lake St. Clair in Michigan, Orton developed an affinity for water early on. Perhaps it was surfing on those stormy lake waves that got him interested in studying storms and thinking like an oceanographer. As an undergraduate at the University of Michigan, he majored in physical oceanography, an offshoot of engineering. His parents, cancer researchers, were role models – scientists who wanted to help people. “Storms were always underneath it all,” he says. Orton completed his postdoc at the Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken, which became his research home. At SIT, he studies ocean and atmospheric interactions -- and climate, with a focus on sea level rise. He works with influential researchers developing modeling systems in ocean science. Hurricanes Irene and Sandy Orton talks about his trial-by-fire during Hurricane Irene, when he was one of the primary scientists providing public forecasts -- on his blog and on local television. That experience helped provide similar services during hurricane Sandy, especially providing real-time instruction about storm surges for the individuals living in the affected areas. He describes working with multidisciplinary teams to solve the post-storm problems in the New York City area, including brainstorming with a variety of specialists (teachers, public policy experts, engineers) to design resilient coastal community. In particular he talks about a project to rebuild the Hudson Bay oyster beds, which will serve as a living breakwater to protect Staten Island (http://www.silive.com/news/2014/06/60_million_living_oyster_reef.html). Phase 1 of the project involves creating a scale model. He and Dan discussed the possibility of using the Oregon State University wave tank facility, a NHERI experimental site, for testing the model oyster bed. Orton details his work with designers, including artists, who have influenced his thinking about what a resilient coastline might look like. He also discusses the complexity of solving the problem of sea level rise and storm surge. For example, he says, understanding human behavior crucial. Many residents in the coastal area do not understand tides and do not know how to swim. And there is terminology to learn. What does it mean to a homeowner if he’s facing a 6-to-11 foot storm surge? Orton talks about improvements in forecasting since hurricane Sandy, which help people better understand the actual impact of a storm. He discusses the importance of probabilistic data, which you obtain by running the model for 100 different forecasts, representing a range of different weather conditions. The results can tell you what the median flood height might be. At the Stevens institute, Orton and his colleagues provide probabilistic forecasts and data on flood hazards in the NYC area, including near worst case scenarios, which are crucial for decision-making.