EP 442 | Top Hitting Rookies for 2026 Redraft Leagues

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1:05Welcome to the Toolshed. A podcast covering all levels of professional baseball to help give you the edge in your dynasty leagues. From the MLB draft, all the way to the show. The Toolshed podcast has you covered with rankings, player analysis and in-depth discussion. And now here's your host, Eric Cross. What's up everyone. Welcome into another episode of the Toolshed podcast. Brought to you by Rota Baller. This is episode 442. Thank you for joining me. I'm your host, Eric Cross. You can find me on Twitter at Eric Cross MLB. And the show is at Toolshed Pod. Going over some rookies for 2026 in this one, specifically hitters. I'll do pictures in the episode on Monday of next week. That's just hitters in this one. For 2026's value. So nothing long-term here. Just looking only at 2026 impact. Who you should be drafting.

2:05Who you shouldn't be drafting. Who's a good value, etc., etc. A lot of interesting names. They're going to be debuting either on opening day or probably shortly thereafter or some midseason guys. We'll go over all of that. I'll go over all of that in this episode. But before I get into all of that, the usual housekeeping. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate and review one of which is a platform you do listen on. You can find all of my content either on Rotaballar or over on my Patreon, which is toolshedofanasi.com. And make sure you check out all of the great content over on Rotaballar with Rotaballar's Premium Pass. Right now is a great time to take advantage of all the phenomenal content and tools available at Rotaballar with our Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit and MLB Premium Pass. A ton of my content is in there. ATC Projections, Nick Mariano's Rankings, mock draft tools, and so much more. And if you act now, you can get a whopping 30% off. I check out using the promo code toolshed. Everything you need to get you ready for your drafts is over on Rotaballar via content, tools, and so much more.

3:09All right, let's start with the big name Connor Griffin. I'll probably go mostly in order here of ADP. And there's only only two, kind of three guys that are in the top 200 Connor Griffin. He's been going, I mean, ADP for him keeps changing, but I'm looking at NFBC ADP over the last like three weeks or so, which for him is like 165, but that again, keeps getting higher and higher or earlier and earlier I should say, with really each passing home run that he hits, he already has three home runs this spring, though those are his only three hits this spring, but still new metrics under the hood so far have been pretty good. But, you know, the hype on him, it's the hype trends derailing at this point. Like in a good way, but it's gotten to the point where I feel like if this continues, he's got to be top 180 PX. He'll be going in that 80 to 100 range, I bet in a couple of weeks, if this continues, we'll see, but especially if he still can't

4:10at that point and we're starting to think that he's going to be on the opening day roster for Pittsburgh. That's a big question. I mean, I have been pretty consistently saying that I don't think that Pittsburgh should do that. I mean, I know I've been free to prospect in the past, but I feel like it's situation dependent and with Connagriffin. I mean, obviously he's a phenomenal talent and it's not often where you can say, this guy has top five overall upside for fantasy, not just top five shortstop, top five overall, like getting up into the Bobby with junior range, getting up into the Corbin Carroll range, Akunya range, that type of range. That's the episode we're talking about here with Connagriffin, but he only has 21 games above single A. He had 50 games at low A, 51 and high A and 21 in double A. And yeah, he was phenomenal every level he was at. He had 338 in low A, 325 and high A, 337 in double A.

5:14Lowest OAP at any level was 396. It was slug above 500 at all three levels, WRC plus above 155 at all three levels, while being young for every level he was at, especially double A, 19 years old in double A, just doing his thing and excelling. And really just getting better at every level. On top of having the massive power, the massive speed and 21 home run 65 steals, so the surface stats were there. He got better in terms of being a pure hitter. Contact rate was going up, K rate going down, walk rate ticking up a little bit. So all those improvements that we wanted to see from him, he made in spades even. So he's checking off all the boxes with a big fat sharpie and long term, I mean, I made a trade for him in a couple of diocese leagues already, including my home keeper league. I have him in another one, so obviously he's a guy

6:15that you want all the shares of. But for this year, I mean, I don't think I'm gonna go after him at that ADP, but it's gonna be top 150, probably even closer to top 100. Again, I just don't think he's up to like June. And I think that'd be the best thing for him, be honest. Like, if anybody were to have a 2550 rookie season like I did in my bold predictions, it'd be him, but I think the best thing for him would be to keep him in AA, triple AA, probably triple AA at this point, for two months, give him a couple months, bring him up in June. I think that would be the best thing for best for him to do with him. So as much as I would love to see him up opening day and see him be one of the best rookies we've ever seen, I think he's probably up closer to mid season than opening day, but I don't know, we'll see. Pittsburgh, you know, never seems to do what we want or what we think they should do. So we'll see on that one, but for ADP being top 150 for the most part, for Clark Griffin, I probably won't have a lot of shares unless he falls,

7:16but let's just be honest, he's not gonna fall, whatsoever. And next guy up in ADP for rookies, we're looking at Samuel Messiah going on that pick 175, 180, we're still range, and also South Stewart kind of sticking into that back end, tops 200, lately as well. I mean, I feel fine with both these guys. I mean, catcher is super deep, you know, it is insanely deep. And you know, Messiah was a guy that I think I even ranked as like my was, I probably like S, I mean, some of that not SB, my catcher 12 or something like that, catcher 13. He's right around that back end top, you know, 12 starting catcher ranking spot. And if you want to wait on, you know, getting your first catcher and you want to, you know, get an upside play, he's great. And you know, his ADP here, I mean, I'll reference the NFBC ADP so that always gets pushed up.

8:19So he's probably just outside of tops 100 or so in Yahoo formats, but in your single catcher Yahoo League, you can really afford to wait. You know, I've done that in a lot of my leagues, though I love me some, you know, Ramirez, some Drake Baldwin, et cetera. A lot of guys that I love at this catcher spot, I'm kind of becoming a catcher guy, oddly enough. But, you know, I've found myself in my drafts kind of waiting because you can wait until everyone else has kind of been filling their spots already. They're catcher spot and at the same time, you're out there filling outfield or search stop or second base or, you know, reliever, starter, whatever. And then, like, look at this like catcher 10 to 14 range. It's in ADP, it's the inner Diaz, Adley Recherman, Alejandro Kirk, Francisco Alvarez, is having a Messiah. So you can wait in that range and get an upside guy. You know, whether, you know, you're an Alvarez guy, you're a Messiah guy, you're, you know, banking on a bounce back from Adley, you can still get some pretty good value and pretty good upside if you wait.

9:20So I am fine. If you want to wait and take the upside play on Messiah, you know, especially if you're in a single country, Yahoo League, you know, if it doesn't work out, like, all right, oh, Messiah, you know, you see struggles or you get stimulated, the AAA, I mean, it could happen. I mean, we saw that with Kobe Mayo, you know, last year, you know, and he doesn't work out, then you drop him and pick up Kyle Teele or Carter Jensen or, you know, Dylan Dangle or whoever. So I don't think it would be too much of a risk there. So I'm fine with that ADP. And then South Stewart is an ADP, I really like. Stewart going on that, you know, back in top 200, I will be eating that ADP all day. Absolutely no questions asked. You know, he's not a guy you're going to drop that's your starter, you know, at first base. But as a starting corner infielder, I freaking love South Stewart this year. I mean, first off, the ballpark, kind of love that. Great American, small park. You know, obviously one of the, you know, best hitters park, probably number two hitters park behind course field, huge, babbit boost, you know,

10:21boost home runs, everything you want for your hitter. It helps. So, you know, that is an nice little added bonus. But Stewart's profile is already really good. You know, he is really impressive in terms of quality of contact. It might not be Roman Anthony level of QC or even style level, but it's right there. It's just a hair below it where he was above a 50% hard hit rate, both in the majors and the minors last year. You know, the contact rate did take down a little bit and triple A in the majors, but, you know, for the most part, he's been an average or above average contact rate guy. He keeps the K rate in check. So, honestly, a 260, 30 type of season from South Stewart would not surprise me in the slightest. You know, or even maybe even more. I, 35 home runs wouldn't surprise me either. I mean, that may be a little bit on the high end of the spectrum, absolutely. But I am quite high on South Stewart for this year and long term.

11:22I mean, I think I love the fit for him in Great American ballpark. Love the power. I think he's a hit for a respectable average. You know, maybe OBP is slightly lower. You know, if he doesn't get that walk rate back up, but the bat is really, really good in that lineup. I think he's really, really good as well, especially if, you know, L.E. bounces back from his, you know, second half kind of injury struggles. And if you get a man named McLean bounce back, if you get in a well, if we take it that next step, it's just a lot of talent in that Cincinnati lineup. And I think Stewart could be a big part of that and be a guy that's, you know, hitting in the middle, somewhere of that order and driving in a lot of runs. So, I like Stewart a lot. He might be my favorite value or what are my favorite values of any rookie for 2026 Redraft League this season. And kind of right behind him, two of the guys that are going right around 200 or just out side of it, Carter Jensen and I'm going to talk about Murakami.

12:23So another, you know, catcher right there. So he's a Jensen's a guy where, you know, he's going more as like the catcher 16, ish 17, 15, having the mid teens. But, you know, he's a guy that I am very high on. He's a guy that I've gotten higher and higher on every time. I kind of look at the profile and rank him. If you guys keep bumping him up higher and higher. His quality of contact was really, really impressive last season. And, you know, he draws walks. He can steal some bags. I mean, he's not a burner by any means, but he's always kind of added a little bit of a speed element. And last year he had 10 steals and 111 games, 20 bombs, 12% walk rate, 25% K rate, 298, 377, 501 slash line. And then he added another three home runs in 20 games, 391, 550 slash line with the royals. You know, again, quality of contact was really, really good last year. He had a barrel rate, 21% with the royals,

13:2750% hard hit rate, 50% hard hit rate in AAA as well, average EV, like 94, 95 miles an hour at both levels, just really good quality of contact. And the contact skills are pretty decent as well. I mean, he's right around average in terms of in zone and overall, he's around 74% overall. Not a lot of swing strikes, only at 10.7% swing strike rate. And again, he keeps the K rate relatively in check, walks at a high clip. So I think he could provide you top 10 catcher value this year. Again, the deep is just going to get deeper at this position. If you get Besayo doing his thing, Carter Jensen doing his thing and kind of performing the way they could, you know, have the potential to do, this position is to get even more sexy in 2027 so then we have a season. So Jensen's a guy, again, if you, you know, single catcher league, late round upside flyer, 100% for it. Now, if you're in a two catcher format,

14:29I would love him as my as my C2. A high upside C2 that can perform as a C1, sign me up all day. So I like Jensen's ADP a good bit. So I like him and Besayo. I got two upside flyers. If you don't want to, you know, pay a top 100, top 150 pick, and you want to wait, get one of these two guys, get Adley, Alvarez, you know, a lot of fun catchers in that range for sure. And then we're talking about Mercami. He's a guy that I think there's a lot of discourse, a lot of varying levels of intrigue with him. You get the people that are just all in, even when he did over in Japan, how he was going to be sitting out over there, one of the better hitters in that league, the really the best, better part of the last, you know, several years, seven, eight years, whatever it's been. And then you got the other side of it where, you know, can he make enough contact? That's the question. You know, you see the contact rates over there, a little bit too much string and strikes, you know,

15:30K rates, you know, all that is a concern, but the power is just massive. And anybody that's watching a watch video of Mercami, whether it be, you know, batting practice this spring, or just his games in Japan, like this could be an immediate 30 home or guy. It's just a matter of your team built at the time, if you can be able to round a possible low average. But given where the ADP is, as it's kind of like in that 200 range, you know, that's not terrible. I thought it was gonna be higher. I thought it was gonna be like a top 150 ADP, just given the hype on him. That's really not the case. You know, again, 200, if you get them, let's probably, you're drafting your corner, infuelter at that range, again, somewhere arranged or where a star Stewart is. I prefer a star Stewart this year, but, you know, since the ADP from Mercami's 200-ish, I'm okay with that. If you give you 30 home runs, even if it's 220, it gives you 30 home runs. That's at least, you know, decent value.

16:33And hey, if it's 240 to 50, 35 bombs, I mean, he's pushing top 100 overall value there. So, I don't think it's a bad ADP at all for Mercami. It's just a matter of what team build you have. You know, do you already have a decent average for your team? So you can, you know, afford to take on a possible lower average guy. But if it can, I don't hate that ADP whatsoever. And then you drop down a little bit ADP here. You got Kazuma Okamoto going, I don't know, like 20, 25, six later, he's in that 225-ish range. JJ Weatherholz around 240 to 50, and then Justin Crawford around 270. And those are kinda like the last ones in the top 300, though, Kevin McGonigal. He's been going right in the back end of the top 300, lately, he kinda, he was in the top 300, and he kinda dipped outside of it for a bit, like January drafts. Now he's kinda taking back up and to like that back,

17:33back 25 of the top 300. And so a lot of great names there. I mean, right in those four names, two of those guys are top five prospects for me. You know, I just kinda bumped with a hold up from six to five, and I have McGonigal at two. So you got two elite guys. You got a tier one guy in McGonigal, and a tier two guy in JJ Weatherholz. And, you know, out of everybody I've talked about, or we'll talk about in this episode, you know, I have Weatherholz ranked as my number one rookie hitter for this season. And McGonigal right behind him, because I think they both got very early. I have Weatherholz, you know, a slot higher because I think he has a better chance of cracking the opening day roster. I'd say Weatherholz being up an opening day is 50-50. McGonigal probably more like 35, 65, 40, 60, kind of it's a little bit lower, percent chance, but St. Louis is in a full rebuild.

18:36And they have no reason to not give JJ Weatherhol a ton of time this season. And if they do, as they should, and if they do, I think he can be a guy that's virtual 2020. You know, not one thing in the profile stands out, but this is so much good in the profile. He's above average power. And he showed that last year at a 48% hard hit rate in AAA, he had an average EV over 91 miles an hour. He's above average contact, you know, maybe even plus contact. I mean, last year, the miners, he was around 79, 80% overall, and 83% in zone with an 8% swinging strike rate. There's above average speed as well. He had 23 steals last year, including 14 in AA, nine in AAA. He's always been a guy that, even in college, we're stealing bags. And the approach, one of the better all-around approaches

19:36you'll see, got that walks a ton and keeps the K-Rate well under 20%. And does so while hitting for power. It's not like he's one of those guys that just puts the bat on the ball and just keeps the K-Rate low in that regard. Because he drives the ball to it. There's, again, above average drop power here, too. So he just says everything well, not really any one glaring weakness, or really anything where you're like, oh, hey, that's a concern. That doesn't really exist in weather holds profile. And it'll be interesting to see kind of where he slots in long-term. You know, I'm guessing probably at second base as they had made some win at short. No engorments kind of still in the picture. So probably not at short, but either second base or third base. I don't care. I think both positions, especially second base are pretty bad right now, third base. As it has the big names at the top, then it gets kind of sketchy. Second base even more so, in terms of sketchiness and lesser amount of big names at the top

20:37that you can really trust and can really depend on giving a big number. So I'd love to see him a second base, but regardless, I think he's going to be one of the best rookies of the 2020 60s. A guy that could flirt with or even exceed 2020 with a good average, with a good OBP and he's giving you that good five category production. I think he's the safest bet to give you a really good rookie season. Out of all these rookies this year, just given the profile, the proximity, just skill sets, the opportunity to play. So weather hold is a guy that I would jump ADP for. You know, again, his ADP is in that 225 to 50 range. I would be fine going, you know, 200, back in top 200 on weather holds. As I think he said, be a really, really good rookie. This season, you know, Justin Crawford, he's a guy that's trending more and more as being the starting center fielder for the Philadelphia Phillies for a couple of reasons.

21:38One, they have nobody else. Like they did not bring anybody in. There's nobody else on the current roster. I can really handle center field on a regular basis, maybe in a pinch shore, but not on a regular basis. And you're not throwing any of those bench guys out there. Really, I mean, it just looks like it's Crawford's job to lose at this point and assuming he has a, you know, at least a decent spring training and doesn't like struggle mightily. I think he's gonna get that spot. And, you know, the Apple probably hit lower in lineup, but you know, that's one of the better lineups in one through nine and baseball. So even if he's hitting like eight or ninth, then he gets, you know, top of the order right behind him. He gets, you know, tri-turner and Bryce Harper and all those guys right behind him. So that's a good, that could be a good spot to be in. You know, once you get one time through the order, speed is elite. He is a double plus or better runner. I mean, just like his dad definitely follows in his dad's footsteps there.

22:39Contact skills are also really good. They're, they're plus or better contact. He hasn't hit below 300 at any level since high A in 2023 when he hit 288, oh no, 288 in 18 games. In 2024, it was 301 in high A, 333 in AA, 2025. He was in AAA for the entire year. He hit 334. With a 411 OBP, 452 slug, seven bombs, 46 steals. Full season of Crawford, I think 35, 40 steals is in play and a good average. And he's also, you know, even though the home run total has been, you know, great so far because of a higher ground ball rate which choice limit of them, you know, the quality of contacts actually pretty solid. You know, last year, triple A, right around just a hair under 90 mile an hour average EV and a little bit over a 40% hard hit rate. So I think he could be kind of like his dad

23:41in that mid teens range, you know, like 14, 15, 16, maybe even 17, 18 some years. But he'll need to get the ground ball right down, get the launch angle up a little bit because that ground ball rate has been incredibly high everywhere he's gone. Last year it was actually a little bit better than it had been but it was still a 59% ground ball rate. So that definitely limits him. But it kind of plays to his skills though, obviously, with the contact, you know, on base abilities, the speed. So there's a lot to like here and each guy late rounds, you know, get him as rigged. I'll feel it's five, six, something like that. Guy with just a ton of speed impact, you know, got his, you know, again, hit for average everywhere he's gone. So I don't expect him to be a rookie that's hitting 230. I mean, never say never, it's a rookie, you know, never say anything's possible as we've seen. But he feels like a safer bet the most to hit for a good average right out of the gate. So yeah, that's the ADP. I do like a lot with just a Crawford of the Philadelphia Phillies and going in that, you know, back third or so of the top 200

24:46but our top 300, excuse me, but I feel like that's going to maybe push up to like that 200 to 225 range as we get closer to opening day. And it looks like he's going to get that spot for sure. But we'll see how the rest of spring goes and if those reports do come out. The average cost of a DeWine Virginia is $11,352.47. Drinking and driving costs more than your drinks. Learn more at what's the damage.org brought to you by Virginia DMV. Our yoga instructor challenged us to find inner peace. I found it faster than anyone. After four seconds, I stood up and screamed, I found her, Fauna, I win! They asked me to leave. I guess they don't respect winning. Bet $365 does, though. New customers get $365 in bonus bets just for betting $10. Now I must stay losers. Bet $365. Winning is everything. Gamely problem call 1-800 gambler, 21 plus only. Must be physically located in Virginia. TNC's apply, in app only.

25:48In 2024, a truck crashed into Canaw in Mar rescue, where I work. 146 of our dogs needed homes fast. We asked for help on Facebook. Our story spread through WhatsApp messages and Instagram reposts. Immediately, people stepped up. I'm here to foster you. And just six hours later, every dog was fostered. I'll never forget how our community showed up for us. Learn how over 3.5 billion people connect to what matters with meta at meta.com slash community. Kazuma Okamoto, you know, going to 25-ish, you know, they're 80-piece fine. I mean, he's a better, you know, for everything I've seen, all the research I've done, all the discussions I've had with people that, you know, followed him and his career overseas more closely than I did, he is a better pure hitter than Murakami, not as much power. But at the same time, like if that's what to say, he's like a, you know, blow average power guy or anything like that. Because there's still some solid power with him.

26:49And he saw that, he had a home run that was what, 450-some odd feet the other day, you know, a handful of days ago. So he does have some good power, just not quite Murakami levels of power. But over a full year, I mean, I could see Okamoto being a 20-homer guy, I think that power's in there with a better average than Murakami gives you. We just don't know, you know, it's always hard to, you know, kind of predict how these guys are going to translate, right? Because there's so much going on. And I think more so than a rookie, a prospect, excuse me, coming up from Triple A. Because, you know, they have to get adjusted from the minors to the majors. That's, and that's, you know, definitely an adjustment. I'm not saying it's not, because it absolutely is. But coming over from overseas, not only are you playing in a new country, there's a bigger gap between, you know, the KBO or, you know, Japan, and there is, you know,

27:51to the majors and there is, from the minors to the majors. And you're also just learning how to live in a new country and navigate an entirely different country on the opposite side of the world. So I think that is just a really hard tradition to make. So some guys have made it seamlessly, you know, we've seen the great names, the each rose, the matte sui's, et cetera, there's so many names that come over. There's also been a lot of names that come over and struggled. So it's really hard, you know, even though they might be a little bit older, you know, I think Okamoto's well, like 30-ish and Murakami and there's been, you know, mid- or 27 or whatever he is now. So they're not like they're a 22-year-old rookie prospect or anything like that, but they almost have to have that same adjustment period. So I don't know, it's hard to say how these guys are going to form, you know, Okamoto, Murakami. But I feel like, given where their ADPs are, I think that they're both fine, the matter of, you know, what type of player are you more inclined to take? Do you want the more upside guy and the more power with Murakami, you want to play a little safer

28:52and go Okamoto? I think both are fine at their respective ADPs for this season. So that's kind of talking about the top 300 guys. Though, oh, we got one more. I've got the mention of mechanical. You know, he's having, obviously, a really good spring and coming off a really good 2025 season. It's funny, you know, him and Griffin being, kind of like the, you know, one and two. Some even have McGonagall one and that's fine. And because he is a phenomenal prospect in his own right, he just happened to be, you know, at the peak of his prospect status right at the same time as a generational talent in Connor Griffin. But there's zero doubt in my mind that Kevin McGonagall is going to be a very good hitter for a very long time. You know, I've used the acronym Tang, you know, that orange drink, the powder came in the powder. I didn't know if it's still around. It might not be. Who knows, I haven't seen it in a long time. But you know, came in that little tub,

29:53the orange powder with a cheeto dust and you know, made that orangey drink, which was super sweet. I'm probably probably going to drink it anymore. But acronym Tang, you know, there are no guarantees. We've seen the best chemist prospect fall flat. But so I'm not going to say, you know, 100% guaranteed that McGonagall is going to be a stud. But you know, he feels like I feel I feel a lot safer in saying that he's going to be an all-star caliber hitter than I do about most prospects that have come up over the last, you know, five, 10 years. Because the blend of contact and approach while being able to impact the ball at a high level as well is a really rare blend of skills that you don't see at this level. You know, he has made above average, you mean more than that, plus contact everywhere has gone. Contact rates consistently over 80%, usually like 82 to 84%. He walks at a high clip.

30:53Last year it was about 15% walk, 11.5% strikeout. He had 305, 408, OBP, 583 slug. So yeah, look at that power as well. I've seen him hit multiple home runs. I saw him hit a home run in AA when they came here, when Eric came here to Portland, Maine. I saw him hit a home run out in the Arizona Fall League. I saw him hit an opposite field triple, showing off the wheels that he has too. So while it might not be quite as gaudy as a counter-griffin, I mean, you're looking at a guy that could hit 300, a guy that could give you, you know, one of the better OBPs in baseball. The guy that could be an annual 20 home run guy, I'm not basically a 30 plus home run guy, but I could see consistently getting to the 20s, will give you double to just deals as well. And having one of the higher floors of any prospect I've seen in the last five to 10 years, as I mentioned. So I love the EGDP. I think he said be up fairly early. He's my second ranked rookie hitter this year

31:53behind just behind weather hole. Again, I think it's just gonna be up a little bit earlier, but I think McGonagall is up pretty soon. And hey, he might even force his way under that open they roster. That would not surprise me. Again, I'll put like 35-ish percent chance he's on the open they roster. If not, it should be by the end of May. If they put him in AAA and he just dominates there, they bring him up, put him in a short and then move Zach McKinnon Street more and took a super utility role where he's really thrived over the years. So McGonagall going around 2.75, 300 though, that's been creeping up, creeping up, creeping up, probably will continue to do so. Like McGonagall a lot this year. Going into the 300 to 400 range of ADP. So now we're getting into, the guys that are deeper league plays, the 15 team league plays. So to like 12 team Yahoo, 23 to 25 man rosters, I think is, I think the standard probably in that range.

32:55And maybe you have a little bit deeper benches. Maybe it's 26, 27 players. So that puts you at like 300-ish players overall, 300, 320. Some of these guys will be back end upside flyers. Others will be more like deeper 15 league team plays or even deeper 50 round formats as well. But there's still a lot of intriguing names in this range as well. Let's start with Chase the Lotter. You know, all of you should know how high I am on the Lotter. He's a top 10 prospect talent with bottom 10 prospect durability. That's what I've said. Many, many times I can't say it any more clearly than that. I believe both those things will be very true. So just wish he could stay healthy. You know, like that's the big thing with the Lotter. He has never shown that he can stay healthy and then it now walker Jenkins is almost getting into that range here. So, you know, these guys are just phenomenal talents

33:57and have shown that when they're on the field. But, you know, the Lotter has played in 138 games in the minor leagues. He was drafted back in 2022. You know, so he didn't play after the draft in 2022. 2023, 1957 games, 2024 or 39 games, 2025, 42 games. So he has even sniffed 100 games played in the season. He hasn't even cracked 60 games played in the season. It hasn't cracked 50 and he's the last two seasons. But at the same time, he's a career 302, 384, 504 slash line. Almost as many walks as strikeouts, 70 walks to 80Ks. You know, he has 40 doubles, 20 home runs, eight steals. He didn't really run much last year or he had the one steal in one attempt. But he's shown that he's the above average speed guy, just kind of unsure as to how big a part of the game that'll be for him. Is he just like a five-still guy? Can he be like 12 to 15? I think that remains to be seen, but the bat has always been there.

34:59He's above average to plus contact. He's a plus approach guy. He's a plus power guy. Yeah. The durability sucks. Yeah, the swing isn't beautiful. I've already seen multiple comments. I'd put out a blanket statement like, yes, the swing is not your typical swing. It's a little unorthodox. Okay, a lot unorthodox. I'll give you that. But it works. Look at the production. Look at the metrics. It's worked. And you would think if the swing was a really an issue, why wouldn't one of the better developmental organizations in baseball, Cleveland, have fixed it, have switched it? They don't even think it's an issue. It works for him. So I'm very much a, if it ain't broke, don't fix it type of guy. And that very much applies to what chased a lot of swing. And so at this point, he's a guy that I would absolutely take an upside flyer on in the later rounds

36:00of a 12 team Yahoo League. He's a guy that I have on my home keep-a-league team, which is kind of right around, it's a 12 team league. We have 28 player rosters. So yeah, it's like 336 players rostered. And I took him in the later rounds of our restocking draft, we keep 10. So he's a guy that I'm very excited for in that league because that one emphasizes my home keep-a-league that is emphasizes, or it gives you a bonus of sorts where if you're a guy that hits for a high average and also walks, so we have average and then walks. So if you do both well, you have a double positive and that's what chased a lot or does. It all comes down to the durability. Can he stay in the field? You can say that about the next guy right after him in ADP, Jordan Lawyer. Can he stay healthy? I'm as enthralled with the profile with Lawyer, but I've always liked Lawyer a good bit.

37:02I think there's like a 15, 30 type of guy waiting to be unlocked. I have no idea what position that's going to be at at this point. He's bounced around a little bit. It's not going to be shortstop because Pradomo's there. So it's going to be, you know, third bait, probably at this point, you know, third base outfield. Though, all right, now I know I was there, because Tom or Tay didn't get traded. I don't know. I don't know what the eligibility to look like a year from now with Lawyer, but I still think there's a good player in there. I still think there's a fantasy friendly profile in there. I got to get hit for a decent average decent OBP as well, 15, 20 home runs, maybe 25, 30 steals. If he can say healthy and if he gets a shot, you know, he's a guy. I'd rather take a shot on the shooting on the lottery for this year, because I like him more. General B, it's a much clearer path of playing time for Daughter, who's right now, you know, as of, you know, March 5th is penciled in to the opening day lineup for Cleveland. So I think there's a better chance

38:02of him getting 500 player appearances this year than Lawyer. So I would rather go Daughter here, but hey, I'm not opposed to an upside play with Lawyer as well. But I guess it could go depends on if he looks at, he's like, you know, break camp in the starting lineup. And at this point, that's kind of, yeah. That's not a long shot, but not a sure thing either. So probably won't be targeting Lawyer this year. Unless it looks like he's going to start, but I will be targeting Daughter, I'm going to go and Crawford. I think those are three really good upside plays in the back end of the top 380 P right now. You know, but going a little bit further, you know, there's four or five more guys here in the top 400. You got, you know, Dylan Beavers and Carson Benj, didn't like that 330, 340 range. Bryce Aldridge, a couple rounds later and the 370 ish range. Harry Ford's going in the back end of the top 400 as well. You know, Beavers, obviously,

39:04is a guy that I'm probably higher than most on. And I've kind of, I think I've shown that in my prospect rankings and my diocese rankings in my redraft rankings, but you know, now I'm starting to question how many bats does he get? Because that Baltimore outfield, very crowded. And they brought in Taylor Ward. And, you know, at this point, I don't know if Beavers is starting regularly because they still got, you know, they call it in cows, there's probably in the center field. But even after him, like they have Tyler O'Neill, they have Leody Tveris. You know, Jeremiah Jackson can place an outfield too. So it's a very crowded outfield. Just bringing in Ward, which again was a very weird move given that they already had a lot of outfielders. And we're looking to add pitching. So they tried to weigh Grayson Rodriguez. Maybe they just weren't, you know, digging the physicals and all that, which definitely could be the case. But still a weird deal, but it kind of created a little bit more uncertainty here

40:06for dealing Beavers this year. And right now he's penciled in as a platoon guy with I'm assuming this is going to be probably Tyler O'Neill, who still has plenty of power, you know, one of the strongest guys in baseball. So he's definitely got gets, you know, in there at some degree. So you get a wonder if Beavers is more like 400 player appearances. But if he gets enough time, if he gets 500 plus player appearances, you know, I've said it time and time again. I mean, I think he's going to be a really solid all around player. And another guy that doesn't make nothing really stands out, he's almost like the outfield JG Weatherhole, but just dial it back a little bit, where he can give you above average production across the board. He's a plus runner. He is above average power guy. You know, there's a little bit of, you know, this course out there, you know, he'll hit lefties. I think that's overblown. The metrics against lefties are actually weren't that as bad as the surface line was.

41:07So I'm not really, you know, too concerned in that regard. He makes plenty of contact. He draws plenty of walks. He's a high OBP guy. He does everything well without having any major red flags, at least in my mind. Again, I'm not as concerned about, you know, him not hitting lefties, but maybe he wanted me to get a chance to prove that because, you know, if he's going to be in a platoon, hitting righties, and then they get Tyler O'Neill in there against lefties, that's going to probably be the spot where he gets limited. And right now, what do the projections have him for around 400 player appearances, which is why his ADP has dipped a good 75 to 100 picks. He was kind of going mid 200s. Now he's going mid 300s. You know, I think he's a guy that you got to go weighted out. And if you have a later draft in March, I think you have a clear picture of what his role is going to be. And if it says a platoon role, then he's really limited. So for him, it just really comes down to what that role is going to be. In general, I like the player a good bit.

42:08And again, really good all around five category upside here with Beavers. So it's got to keep an eye on how his playing time situation and how his role with Baltimore shakes out over the next couple of weeks, you know, Bryce Eldridge. He's a guy that probably is going to start for San Fran on opening day. You know, I guess they could send him back down the AAA. You know, but right now he looks like he's going to be starting at DH. You know, they get Debra's at first. Maybe they kind of rotate those two, give Debra some time at DH and get Eldridge in there. But this is going to be a God of that. I mean, honestly, I put a pull out, I get what you count. I might have been even from like the Rotabull Rican. I just honestly forget what you kind of was. Because it was like a month or so ago. You know, who do you think was going to have a better season between Murakami and Eldridge? Because I think they could be actually pretty close. Maybe a little bit lower on the average side, but plenty of power. If Eldridge gets 500 plus player appearances,

43:10I can see him pop a 25 to 30 home runs this year, just like Murakami. You know, Eldridge has shown he's one of the best power hitters in the game today, especially for prospects. And he has some of the highest power upside in general. So I can easily see him being a sizable power impact guy right off the bat, even if the average is a little bit on the lower side, but his ADP is like 150-ish picks later. So he's a guy that's, you know, 12 team Yahoo League, late round flyer, 15 teamer, you know, one of your last, you know, five guys or so, another, you know, another in-fielder for some depth there, probably not starting him, but a lot of upside. So he's a guy that could power his way into starting lineups for fantasy purposes. So don't love the ballpark though. You know, that's always been a park that limits power, you know, again, it was, it, Adames was the first guy to hit 30 as a giant since Barry Bonds in 2000.

44:12Well, year was it four, five, something like that. So it was like 20 year, you know, two decade gap, but Eldridge has, as I like to call it, big boy power. So if anybody were hit 30 again from that team, he could be a good candidate to do so. So I guess, he'll give us some power as a later on flyer. He is a great place to look. Harry Ford and Moses by Estero's both back end of the top 480p again, that's on NFC drafts. So you're probably not looking at these guys outside of two capture formats, but I do like them a decent bit in that type of format. You know, given that, you know, Ford has been a guy even though the Steelers went down last year. He's a guy that has always been, you know, providing some speed element. God, it gives you a good context skills, really good approach. The on base abilities are top notch and there's sneaky power there too. There's like 15 to 18 home or pop there too. So if he gets a chance to start over, you know, a Kibera weas and whether that be opening day

45:13or later in the season, I think he could be like a sneaky waver wire guy at some point in the season. Especially in two catcher formats for sure. I like him more than by Estero's this year. I'll just mention in passing before we get out of here, some of these other names as we're getting, you know, well pass, you know, 12 team, 15 team, you know, formats and more into like the deeper draft and hold best by DC formats, but some upside guys. I like that guys that to monitor because, you know, if there's an injury, bam, they could be right in there quickly. Cole Emerson with Seattle, you know, obviously, you know, guy that can hit for a high average, high OBP, you know, 20 home or type of guy, maybe double to just deals. He's almost like, you know, another comparison. He's almost kind of like McGonigal, but scaled back. You know, kind of similar, it doesn't do everything quite as well as McGonigal, but a similar type of player just, you know, take like 85% of that or something like that.

46:14But, you know, if he's up, you know, probably be more at second base. And I can see him being a pretty decent asset this year. Jacob Melton, and he's got a watch in Tampa Bay, eight in Miller in Philly, good power speed guy. You know, I thought maybe they were going to, you know, make a trade and maybe Alec Boom was going to be sent out. They'll put up a spot for Miller to slide over from short to third, but, you know, it hasn't happened yet. So he's probably waiting for an injury and he's already been dealing with an injury himself, but he's a very high upside guy that, you know, is probably just, there could spend more of the year in the majors than in AAA. So definitely a high upside guy, the monitor there. Same with Ryan Wallachman, and there's some rumblings. He might be opening day. I don't see it, but he's also a guy that I think is up before the midway point of the season. And a guy that can be a 15 to 20 home or guy, maybe even more. Like there's pretty sneaky couldrop power there with Wallachman. He already had a really high EV.

47:14He was like 115 something this spring. So really good all-around profile, you know, speed on base abilities, contact skills. So he's a fun guy and, you know, Arizona on the outfield is kind of in flux right now. So he's a guy that I absolutely could see getting plenty of time at the major league level. Tumor guys, you know, actually, former guys I want to mention real quick. There's just so many good rookies this year. I mean, Joshua Baez, another name, you know, huge rough power, good athlete, a ton of steals last year made huge, huge improvements in terms of contact. And dropping the strikeout rate. So he went for me, a guy that was kind of falling off the radar to a guy that's in top 25 prospect discussion right now. He's probably up mid seasons. I got to keep an eye on and you kind of maybe jump the fab and get him ahead of, you know, your league mates in terms of, you know, not having to wait for fab for him or getting him and stashing him, we could do it in advance.

48:16Because he's going to be up at some point. I guarantee that. And there's a really fantasy friendly profile there with Joshua Baez. I think Jet Williams is a guy that forces Milwaukee's hand early in the season. His ADP is like near 500. So again, not a guy you're looking at in your typical, you know, 12 team, 15 team league outside of super deep formats. But I think he's got a force his way into that short step position. And whether that is, you know, pushing Ortiz to third and reheat to the bench or pushing Ortiz to the bench or there's an injury. I think those guys are just keeping, you know, the seats warm for Jet Williams. A guy that has really good on base abilities, solid contact skills. He's a plus runner. And another guy that has more power than people give him credit for, probably more of a 12 to 15 homer guy. But definitely don't think he's like a slap header single digit homer guy. I think he could be like a mid teens homer guy over a full season. So, you know, if that's giving you,

49:18that's where he's giving you. He goes like 10, 20 this year in 400 plate appearances. He'll give you a good average. I mean, that's gonna be a pretty good investment right there. At last two, our outfielders, Spencer Jones, Zach Vene, Jones is a guy. I'm just not targeting at all. I mean, I think I've talked about him 7,000 times on this podcast. So I'm not gonna get into it again, but y'all know the story. It's massive rock power. The speed is there. There's been a lot of that video of him kind of changing his stance a little bit going with the toe tap, to mimic Otani. That's all great. We still make contact and that's been a massive issue for him. We'll see, you know, the upside can rival almost anybody or any prospect in the game today. But the downside is just so risky with him that I just don't want anything to do with it, especially not this year or ever really, even when I still have him as a top 100 guy. Because of the upside, I can never figure out where I want to rank him.

50:19But this year, I mean, they brought in like five outfielders, a lot of these non-rosser invitees. They're so trying to find a spot for Jason Dominguez. I just don't see him, you know, unless there's an injury or two, probably, you know, two would be needed to get him into the lineup. So I'm not really looking at Jones this year, but Zach Vene's a guy that just keep it eye on him. He's a guy that has a fantasy friendly profile. That's always stolen, you know, a ton of bags. Guy that has, you know, above average raw power, coarse field, you know, context skills have been fine too. You know, you know, walks out of decent clip, you know, a lot of good there, you know, last year, you know, he had his ups and downs, but hey, he's clean, you know, Bravo to you, Zach for getting clean. Love to hear that. He's added 43 pounds and I see a lot of people poo-pooing that. Oh, you know, how could you do that in one off season? Well, it wasn't just him adding 43 pounds of bulk. It was him getting clean and getting out of some bad habits,

51:22which some of those bad habits can cause you to lose weight, you know? So I believe it, maybe 43 is a little bit overblown, but I will, you know, just look at him. He looks like he's just in, you know, for lack of a better term, the best shape of his life. So I'm really excited. I'm not sure if he's up opening day. He's a guy just given the upside, given the home ball park. And I think decent enough chance to play 400 plus play appearances for Colorado this season. I think being just a guy to absolutely just keep an eye on, put them on your watch lists, write them down on your notebook if you're old school, whatever you got to do. Just don't forget about Zach Vane and keep an eye on him, you know, the rest of the spring. And you know, early on in the season, if he's back down in AAA. But so many names here is a lot of other names that could have gotten into. I mean, I didn't even mention Walker Jenkins, who's already hurt again, you know, Bisonna could be up mid season, Charlie Condon could be up mid season. What other names here? But I will cap it there.

52:22Thanks for everyone for tuning in. I'll be back with you all early next week with the two episodes next week and two episodes every week, weeding up to opening day. And next week I will have the picture version of this so keep an eye out for that. But until then, everyone take care. The average cost of a D-Wine Virginia is $11,352. And 47 cents. Drinking and driving costs more than your drinks. Learn more at what's the damage.org brought to you by Virginia DMV. In 2024, a truck crashed into Cannot Animal Rescue,

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