Eddie Olczyk shares his picks for the Kentucky Derby

0:00we've got Eddie O, what's up? We're gonna, we're gonna wait. We're gonna show for this. Duh, duh, duh, duh, duh. ["Duh, duh, duh, duh, duh, duh." ["Duh, duh, duh, duh, duh." ["Duh, duh, duh, duh, duh." Mollie, and Haw, 104, 3, the score, always a delight to talk to the great man himself at e. Ulcheck joins us on a plumber's 9-1-1 hotline plumbing emergency We call 1-8-3-3, plum 9-1-1, local 130 plumbers get the job done right the first time. And we need to let you know that this segment with Eddie Olchick is brought to you by Twinspires.com, the official betting partner of the Kentucky Derby. Eddie, good morning. How are you? Eddie! Hey Molly, hey David, how you doing today guys? Nice to be with you. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. We love that you're down there and you're getting it all ready and you're going to tell

1:01us who's going to win the oaks that we have enough money to bet the Derby to Marrow. Oh, it's going to be fun. Well, look at today, the 13th race will be in prime time on Good Old Channel 5. Tonight back home, it'll be on about seven. Our coverage starts at seven o'clock local time in Chicago and probably the race around that's seven, 37, 40 range and I think it's an absolutely wide open race. But I'm looking at number, I'm looking at number 13, Pashmina, a Philly that ran second in the last start in New York. The morning line odds were 30 to 1. Currently, I saw about 23, 24 to 1. An interesting thing is she finished second in New York and the horse that won that race in New York is right now five to one, always a runner for Chad Brown. And I don't think there's much separation between the two. And hopefully we can get the odds that we see on number 13, Pashmina.

2:02So I'm going to use the 13 with the 9, 10, 11 with a little bit of a press on the 9 meeting that the 9 I think is probably the Philly to beat. And hopefully we can get those. We can fill up our bankroll for tomorrow, Molly, as you mentioned. Pashmina, number 13 and race 13, a Churchill down for years, truly. Eddie, is weather going to be a factor today or tomorrow? I mean, if you're looking for about 85 degrees and, you know, hot, you're not going to get it today or tomorrow, it's going to be in low 60s today, little overcast right now. Tomorrow is supposed to be maybe mid 50s and overcast as well. A slight chance of rain, which is kind of seem to increase year over the course of last couple of days, but it doesn't look like it's going to affect the track at all. So it's going to be fast and firm. And that's the way that we like it. So Eddie, you know, Renegade is a good horse, probably the favorite in the Derby.

3:07I believe it's at four to one. It has that one post. I don't think I just don't think emotionally I can bet on a favorite coming out of the one post. It just I need a little action. I don't know. How are you looking at this race? Yeah. If Renegade was not in post position number one, I don't think we've had a post position winner number one since, uh, and now we're talking our era Ferdinand and Willie Schumaker. That was the combination back in the, in the mid 80s. So, uh, you know, I think Jose Cardinal was still patrolling left field for the Cubs maybe at that time. So I know, I know it was a little earlier than that. I remember Jose Cardinal in the early 70s, mid 70s, but you know what I'm saying? Like that's a, that's a long time ago. So I think he's, I think he's talented enough to overcome it because the way that he runs. It's not the greatest. If he wasn't in post position one, he would probably be my pick. I am going to use him. I think you have to use him because he has an unbelievable closing kick.

4:09And if he's able to have that closing kick and get free, he's going to have an opportunity to go ahead and get the, uh, and get the roses on Saturday. So I agree with you, Molly, the philosophy and the thought process, but, uh, I just think he's talented enough to overcome and, uh, be able to make a big run, uh, on Saturday. Eddie, with all the scratches and everything going on last minute, last couple of days, who's at gate 17? It's the only gate not to produce a Derby winner. Further ado was there at one point. What's the status now? Right. Yeah. I think we had another scratch here recently. I heard Dustin with his report. So I don't have my papers in front of me. But yeah, everybody moves in one slot and, uh, you know, right now looks like we're only going to have 19 go to post if I'm doing my math, uh, quickly enough. So, but they're, but you know what? I shouldn't say that I think we still could have a possibility. Uh, well, no, we already had the two scratches because I should, I should say the

5:12horse that I like going in number 20 full effort was, was the horse that I was going to pick, but, but he scratched. So then all of a sudden I had to kind of retool on the fly and, and, and, and, and, and make my adjustments on my eventual pick, who, who I will tell you in a second. But I further do is, uh, I mean, run unbelievable and Lexington, Kentucky and the bluegrass and his last race to win by about 11 lengths, you know, very talented horse. So, uh, I think that is wide open as it's going to be, and you look at the odds four to one and higher for everybody in the field is going to be a very, very competitive race. And honestly, I, I'm going to give you five horses. I, I could have one of the five being a top three or quite frankly, I, how wide open I think it is. I, I could maybe have one other five finished third and that's it. But if you're looking for value, this is the race to take it because these horse are going a mile and a quarter.

6:12We talk often, the source are going to go a mile and a quarter for the first time in front of 160,000 people. Uh, there's a lot of things you got to be able to navigate and stick handle your way through. So further ado, who you mentioned, David, you got to be able to, uh, you know, you, you got to, I think he is a use. I'm not going to use them, but I think that you have to, uh, you have to think about him because he does look like he is a very talented animal. And he's proven a Churchill Don's, by the way, one career race, he wanted here. Uh, I think it was last fall. So, uh, can't argue with anybody that might use further ado. Uh, let's get to your picks. You've got five horses. I'm, I'm waiting with baited breath, Eddie. All right, get the crayons out. Maybe a chance to sharpen them up there. Put them in that Creole of Oxford and sharpen them up. I'm not sure if they, do they even make crayons anymore? I don't even know any more to be honest with you. Um, okay. So my pick will be number 15 emerging market, uh, for Chad Brown and Flavian Pratt. Only two career races, right.

7:13But I don't think Chad Brown would, would take this, I shouldn't take this chance. Run in this race. He's got to be feeling really good about this horse to give this horse the chance to only be in the third career start and try to win the roses on Saturday. 11 to one is the current odds that I saw before I left the hotel. Morning line was 15 to one when a rant, rant huge race, uh, in New York, uh, the last race. So my pick will be number 15 emerging market probably will be in the middle of the pack, probably sitting, you know, six seventh eighth, I think is the way I would like to see it. And then be able to make the one big run. I am going to use the, uh, I am going to use the one horse renegade. Uh, as we talked about earlier, number 19 golden tempo is a horse that will be coming from out of it, but I think an improving horse will love the distance and should get a trip coming off from behind and letting the speed horses maybe come back and then be able to pick them up down the lane.

8:14I'm also going to use, um, number 11 incredible, uh, I think is tactical can be right in the middle of the pack, uh, more of a third or fourth place finisher. If you're looking to get in the superfectives and then I think commandments and interesting horse number six that can be tactical. I think the blinkers have gone on in another horse bred to go to the distance. So again, the numbers will be, but to win will be number 15 emerging market. I do like number one renegade and I'm going to use number 19 golden tempo, number 11 incredible and number six commandment. I would like to think since I picked emerging markets this morning, the great minds think alike, but many will say fools never differ. So I, I don't know what to think, Eddie, but, Hey, Hey, Molly, Molly, Molly. First off, uh, I've been told that I don't have a mind. So I, I don't know if I can even be great for what the hell that, you know what that phrase is. So look at I just, I just want to, I just want to have, I want to have powder in my

9:20pocket for tomorrow. So if we could have a good day to day and pass me, I would say this, if you're going to bet the 13 and race 13 of Churchill today, I would play across the board because if she goes off at 20 to one, you, if she runs third, you're probably going to turn a $20 show bet into probably $100, $110. So you know, I mean, David, you know, making millions on TV and making millions on radio, just take a couple thousand and play it across the board and turn 4,000 into a very funny, very funny, Eddie. So out those picks, now Molly said this morning that he's, he needs to look at the everything and there's going to evaluate it and something could change and it could change as a pick tomorrow. What could happen today when you study this that could change what you just told us by the time we get to tomorrow afternoon? Well, I mean, look, if we happen to get any kind of a, you know, a rain storm or whatever, I would have to regroup. But if, if everything stays as is, I'm not changing.

10:20Now, obviously, the horse scratches, obviously, then, you know, maybe got to add another horse, David, but I, and not, I think I've learned over the years and have had some really close calls and other times, I mean, you know, if the Derby was a one horse race, the way I was going, I wasn't going to win the race, you know, it's just like sometimes it goes that way. It's just the reality of it. So nothing's going to, I mean, if nothing will change unless one of the horses scratch or the track happens to be come up off, but at the end of the day, you know, you turn on NBC tomorrow and you get a chance to, to see us make our live picks on air and hopefully I'll get a chance to, to, you know, spread a little knowledge and hopefully get lucky. And like I said, if the one renegade was not in post position number one, and I think Molly feels the same way, like, I think I would feel a lot stronger. I'll be honest with you, I don't think he would be four to one. I think he would probably be three to one or maybe he'd be seven to two. Wow. But I think a lot of people are, are, are a little hesitant, but I do believe

11:22he is that type of equine athlete to be able to overcome the number one post position. It, it is really curious that emerging market has only had two starts. Now, he won both of them. So that's a nice thing to say. But, um, you know, when you're dealing with the field, this size, it, it is, it helps to have a little more experience without a doubt. It does. Yeah. Yeah, it does. And no, it depends on your running style to the only true. If you're, if you're, you know, if you're like renegade, who likes to come from, you know, eighth, ninth, tenth and your, uh, emerging market that has the ability to be able to sit fifth or sixth or seventh, I'll get the depends on how fast they go. That, that's all another story. But if you do have that ability, not, we've seen horses, they rich strike, you know, a couple of years ago, 81 to one is, you know, was 18th or 19th at one time and was able to navigate. And like I said earlier, stick handle the way through and, and all of a sudden, you know, for two dollar wage, or you're getting back a hundred and, you

12:24know, $168 or whatever it ended up being. So these, and people ask all the time, well, why doesn't the horse just run faster or whatever? Well, you know what, I would have liked to have been faster to a microwave. I mean, but that just, I was, I wasn't, I wasn't wired that way. They forgot to tell me that my legs were a baggage claim for 16 years. And I just had to do what I had to do. So, uh, but that, that's, I understand what you're saying. But you, and you need a, you need luck in a, yeah, I mean, you need luck in life. You need luck and sports racing, you gotta get a trip. You do have to get lucky and hopefully have a clear path if you are trying to navigate through these horses. And he's one of the greatest songs that sticks ever put together. Renegade, but what kept you away from the favorite because a lot of people will be going that direction post position one day, but that's it. That's it. Okay. That's it. No other, no other reason because I do believe he is the most talented horse. But look, we see it, we see it on a daily basis. We see it on a nightly basis.

13:26The most talented athlete doesn't always win. And it is one race. It's two minutes in front of 165,000 people. 20, you know, you're going up against 19 or 18 opponents or whatever it is. Just sometimes it isn't, it isn't meant to be. And it isn't their day. But I do believe that this, I do believe Renegade is a, I do believe he's a, he's a talented horse. And I'm not going to say he breathed different air, but he certainly looks like when you push button him and you want to go from 45 to 95, he has that ability to make that run. And if he can stay wide and get out of the, you know, get out of the traffic. So that, that would be only reason is that the post position number one, is he going to get slammed down there on the inside? And I'm sure our great team at NBC will have it all covered from all angles. And everybody will be able to take a look and see what happens to what I think probably will be the post time favorite in somewhere in that three and a half to four to one range.

14:29So if that's the case, you're going to, you're looking to get your feet wet. You're going to make money if you're right because at the favorite four to one, that means that you're going to have a horse is, you know, the majority of the field is going to be, you know, over that 12 to one range all the way up to, you know, 100 plus to one. Eddie, I'm curious, you know, we, it's pucks and ponies. And we know that Connor McDavid eliminated yesterday. And he's, he's a very, he's a very good player. And he's very close to Mr. David's heart. Is he ever going to win? Do you feel like this? I mean, he struggled, he couldn't get a gold medal in the Olympics. And now I know Edmonton has, has had a mediocre season, didn't live up to their own expectations. But what do you make of what's going on with him and his career thus far? Well, he's the best player in the world and no doubt about it.

15:32And he's been close and his team has played a lot of hockey here. The last couple of years. I'm like, we, we all lived it right with, with, with, with our favorite team. When the hawks were in their heyday, I mean, those guys were playing a lot of hockey. You had Olympic, Olympic sandwiched in there. I mean, you're going Stanley Cup finals and, and winning and it, it, it does catch up with you. Look, he was, he was banged up in these playoffs. He, he was banged up and a lot of players are banged up. Not, not all teams are healthy, complete. Doesn't matter what sport it is, but in particular with, with hockey and the Edmonton always talking about Connor McDavid, oh, I do believe. I think he is too good and the will is in my conversations with him. There, there is that desire and that drive and, and he will win. Now, whether it's an Edmonton or not, that's a whole nother story. Look, they went to back to back Stanley Cup finals, which they, you know, unfortunately for them, they go up against the juggernaut in the Florida Panthers. So he's got two years left on his contract. He's going into the last two years.

16:34Speculation would be is does he see the two years out in Edmonton? Or does he walk for nothing? So there has to be a decision at some point, because I don't know if you're the Edmonton owners is that you can afford Connor McDavid to walk out as a free agent and get absolutely nothing for him. So I would keep an eye on that situation. If you're a hockey fan, keep an eye on that situation over the course of the next. Let's just call it 8 to 15 months to see how this all develops, because I just, I just don't see him playing the last year of his contract and then becoming a free agent. Do I think he's going to resign there in two years? I don't know. I would lean more no than yes. So then if you're a business or your organization, it's all about assets and protecting that, then I think you got to start thinking forward thinking on what could happen because look, he did sign a friendly, you know, a team friendly.

17:36He was team friendly, no doubt about it to extend his contract. It only 12 and a half million. He should be making, I mean, he will be making 18 to 20 million in his next deal. There's no doubt about it. He will get the max rightfully so, but I do believe he will win because I think he is that good and he is that driven. You need some luck. Like I said, you need a little bit of health and we'll see how it all plays out over the course of the next. I'm really interesting for the, I'm interested for the next eight to 10 months to see how this plays out in Edmonton and to see whether or not the economic David would be on the move or he stays to play in his last season in Edmonton. So I'm looking through the black hawk prism, Eddie. And I'm seeing Joe Kwenville's ducks eliminated Stan Bowman's oilers. And in that context, Stan, Stan Bowman has the burden of keeping economic David in Edmonton possibly. Let's wait and see. But through that hawks lens, I wonder number one, could the hawks ever be in on a conversation like that? Number two is Austin Matthews on the move. And number three, if not, what about Brady Kachock and what he had to say this

18:38week? One of those three guys got into a Chicago, right? How awesome. How awesome would that be? I, you know, look, I know what I would try to do, but that's not, I don't think anybody really cares what I think. So if you can't get, you could put, you could put the hawks under an umbrella and, you know, you could probably change the sweaters, which I wouldn't, because obviously it's the greatest sweater in all of professional sports. But you're talking about three guys there in particular with David in order to talk in Matthews, those guys are, they change the direction of your franchise. They are franchise getters. They are players that players want to play with and they have the ability to change whatever culture you have in place. And those guys from what I understand contractually is they all control

19:43you know, air quotations on where they go because they have that in their, in their contract. So I would hope they would be, but I can't answer that with all those guys in order. I look at those guys, you, you want to change the direction or you want to change the culture of your franchise regardless of where it is, all three of those guys do that depends on the type of player. Do you need a center? Well, obviously, you know, you know, the two centers. Do you need a guy that is a top in my opinion is a top 15 forward in the entire National Hockey League and a guy like Brady Kochuk. You see he can do it all. He can score, he can hit, he can fight, he makes everybody bigger and better. So depending on what your needs are and some teams need more than others, it would be, it would be really interesting. And everybody is watching throughout the National Hockey League on what ends up taking place with all three of those guys because contracts are all expiring right around the same time.

20:44Great stuff, Eddie. Really love it. Love the puck talk. Love the party. You're the best you're that you are the best. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Always great talking with you the weekend. That is Eddie old check. Wow. That's so much fun.