Eck’s Best Bets: The Model Behind the Picks | NFL Week 1

0:00What's going on big dogs welcome into Adams plus one happy Friday the NFL season is upon us. X best bets is back. Andrew act joins us. Our format is very similar to last year. We're going to jump into his best bets. The games he's picked are the bears of the Panthers, Ravens at Colts, Falcons at Steelers, Cardinals at Chargers, Cowboys at Giants, Denver at Kansas City. And of course, we've got some college bets for you guys. So let's dive in. Hey, we need a big championship drive. That's all we need. Three Chase, Blockbers in front. Chase. Chase. Chase. Adrian Peterson with the first. Peterson. I was, I don't agree with what the Patriots are doing right here. I would play for overtime if I could say he's given time. He wants Jefferson. Climb the ladder. Oh my goodness. Just can Jefferson. Hey, what do you think of this intro?

1:18We got some Vikings montage in there. Yeah, I saw that. I saw that. I think you need to add the, the digs. I didn't hear it. Maybe it was in there, but the, the Mini Mini Apple's Miracle digs. Side line touchdown. That's like, I watched that once a month, probably. Okay. So that we, that's our homework. We'll, we will get to the digs, the digs Miracle play. But you know what? It stinks because I really love the Justin Jefferson one. Like when I think of, but, but obviously the, the digs one has more weight on it, right? Like the Justin Jefferson was ridiculous because it's double coverage, but the mirror, was that the, that was out against the bills? That's against the bills. That's that fourth down. That was the craziest game that I've probably watched via text with you. I remember we thought the game was over and then Josh Allen. The bills were backed up and they tried to cube you, staking a phone on this. I remember I was outside the VA. I was on call that day. I was at the VA and I was like, uh, freaking out in the ortho room all by myself. It was funny. Too funny, man. No, it's, uh, it's good stuff. But yeah, it's always good to have you back on the podcast.

2:19These are my favorite, it's my favorite, favorite format for the podcast is X-Bets. We got such good rhythm. Again, you had a great year last year. Excited to get into your, your bets this week. I know you want to get your model, but before you get your model and we get to the picks, yeah, your picks for the week, I do want to talk about the Niners in the Rams because there's so much that went into that game last night from a better perspective, from football fan perspective to I think when those two teams play, I think after the game started, you start to realize like you kind of, you kind of got to throw records out in roster's how because those coaches are so good. They know each other. So we're already in, right? You know, the sleep, the whole travel and sleep and it's kind of like two different approaches. So there's, you could pick that apart, but just overall, what was your biggest takeaway as a fan and as a better going in? I know that you had the, you took the Niners last night. Yeah. I mean, it was unfortunate. They were going to be one of my best bets, but you know, we couldn't record early enough to, to make it official. But yeah, I, I, I, I feel in the Niners, we're going to win. I don't think, I don't know, I think when, when your end value or your number value is

3:22one in terms of like what's the best way to do the travel? I wouldn't blame everything on the, on the travel. Maybe it was because, you know, Stafford looked, looked pretty bad and it was interesting because the defense, the defense for the Rams didn't look as, as dominant, but it's also a week one. So, you know, it's, it's just kind of hard, hard to, hard to know who's going to be who and, you know, we talked about yesterday. It was seasons really long. I think both teams are very top heavy and so health is going to be a concern. But I think the, I think both teams are going to be, going to be good, you know, Rams battling for the number one seed or at least the, at least the division. So I don't, I don't really take too much from it. I'm, it was a fun, it was fun game. It was cool to see, to see football back again, but I don't know. I don't, I don't have huge takeaways from it just because of the, all the, the scenario and being in Australia. And I, I don't really like week one division games and we have a couple. I just think, especially with people not playing in preseason. It's just like week one through, you know, two, three is essentially preseason.

4:25So who are we, who wants not to knew who you're going to be? 16, 17 and so. Yeah. And in the Rams are a good example. There's been a few years where they have started slow and then they, you know, take off. I have no worries about the Rams. I think they come back. I think they handle the Giants, which I think we'll get to you next week. But if I've learned anything from you, I think it would be interesting to see next week how you approach the Niners Dolphins game. Let's see what they're doing. Right? And yeah, you're fair. Just neat preview. But okay, I wanted to chat about the Rams and the Niners. That was fun. It's so nice to have football back, man. It really is. So let's transition now. Let's talk about this model that you kind of have been hinting at and you're going to unleash this year and give the, give the audience kind of a rundown on this model. How you're using it? How you built it or we get into your picks of the week. Yeah, so I think something that we've, that I've learned about one of my, one of my attendings, he's kind of like one of the big names and spine to form a surgery. Oh, Dr. Jeff Hills, shout out Jeff Hills.

5:26He's awesome. He's like one of the smartest people I've ever met. And he's big insist stats. And one thing he talks about is not categorizing continuous variables. And so, you know, if, if someone's spine, whatever alignment target you're looking at or if you're looking at weight, right? So somebody who is, all this use arbitrary number, someone who's 120 pounds isn't super distinctly different than someone who's 123 pounds. But if you use an arbitrary cutoff of 120, you're putting those two people in two different buckets. And so everyone who's 121 to 149 is not this, is not so different than someone who's in another bucket. That makes sense. So one of the things I was looking at is I was like, you know what? I've done this in sports betting in terms of like, okay, well, what's the betting percentage? You know, less than, you know, if greater than 70% of the bets are on a team, then they're more likely to take them. But like, okay, then what's the cutoff 70, 69, 68? And so using that and then also comparing different models and different variables in terms

6:30of, you know, how did they taking into account how they played last week or offseason storylines or not so much storylines, but offseason news and changes. So putting the different variables in a regression model to build like a probability index. So it's less of a yes, no, and more of like, hey, so this is like a 58% chance of covering or 59% chance of covering. And then using that as a probability index rather than like yes, no betting like and more less arbitrary cutoffs and more of probability modeling. Because at the end of the day, you know, where it's one is football, so it's unpredictable for a large part, but it's, I think it's going to be a better way moving forward to take the things that I look at. And this is also just interesting to kind of build your own models and mess around and tinker with things. And you know, the idea is if you're betting, you know, betting sides, usually it's at, you know, minus one 10. So you want to be over 52 and a half percent to break even.

7:33So I could compare like how the model is looking and what the probability numbers come out to and then compare that with like, just kind of like my vibes and what I'm thinking. Moving forward, it's hard. Unfortunately, to look at information in the past because they're not readily available because everything's behind a paywall. So I'm going to be using it and updating it like prospectively. So moving forward. Yeah. So you don't have a library banked up yet, but as you go and collect more data, then next, like for example, after this whole season, when it's week one, 2027, you'll have all of 2026 data built into the model. Yeah. So it's something I want to move, do moving forward. I also have it in a separate one in college too. And then there's different, different variables in the college one that I was thinking of. And there's always, you know, if we think of other things that could be important or interesting, can add in the model in terms of weight, you know, because college is a little bit different in obviously with the huge points, breads and the difference in competition

8:33where the NFL is relatively similar in talent. But then you know, you have USC playing some, you know, lower, lower end program. Like that's got to be weighted a little bit different. Obviously besides the line, but yeah, it'll be interesting. And should be able to see moving forward kind of how it how it works. I'm excited for it. It reminds me of a few nights, probably two weeks ago before the season, the week of the last week of preseason where nobody plays. I was bored. And you know the movie that clips always pop up on my YouTube timeline. I just love watching the clips. I've seen the whole movie, but I love the clips. And I always say, I should go watch that movie again is money ball. Dude, I love that. I love that movie. So I went, I do it. I went and watched the, the movie again, because I hadn't seen it. I think in a year or maybe a decade, well, one of my favorite scenes is when he's kind of, he's already explained the model to Billy, how he does this. And then he says, like, hey, this picture, the one that throws it goofy, he's like, this guy, his valuation comes out to this. And he said, we can get him for 275K a year, but his true value was like $3 million a year.

9:38Right. And so that's what you're looking like. Our model is not matching the market. So another example I'll give you and I talked about this on our last podcast. It was the athletic had their own model where they said the teams, the team that had the juiciest over that they thought was not properly valued in the market was the cult. So you should take the cult over because of the way it's weighted. So I'm interested to see when you make your picks, how your model influences those picks. I don't know how it'll do this week in terms of how much data you have. Still very, very interested. This is good stuff. It'll be something we'll be tracking. But here we go. I don't see the Vikings on the list of teams. So I just want to know like what's going on? Did we not? Is that one of those stay away games we plug in our nose and just looking away? What's up with that? I try and stay away from the Vikings games because I feel like I can't always think with my head. I think with my heart in both ways, right? Where I'm like, oh, I feel really good about them this week or like, you know, I'm very pessimistic.

10:38They're going to suck. There's very few games where I feel very strongly. I'm going to be looking at the Vikings and I think a lot of times I go overboard with it. Where it's like, you know, system play. And then it's like a system play also the Vikings. So it's like, oh, they're definitely going to lose. This is totally again, they lose and then they end up winning or covering or whatever. And you're like, yeah, I should probably stay away from the Vikings. So I'm sticking, I'm sticking my chest out like Brian Flores was in his press conference yesterday. I feel very good about my number two OCD prediction. I like the Vikings at home. But we'll get to your actual picks now. I guess school nation is right is Adams driving school nation. So I think your first game and I don't have it up. I think your first game was Bears Panthers, but let's keep our format consistent. This is what I'd like you to do. Just the NFL games to start just run through, you know, which one you're taking, if each game like I'm taking this team to cover or this team, just give us all of your predictions now.

11:38Okay. I have a few questions on them. Okay. So first Panthers plus three against the Bears. So Panthers at home plus three against the Bears Colts plus three and a half against the Ravens at home. Balkans are plus five at the Steelers, Cardinals plus nine and a half at the Chargers and the Giants plus three at home against the Cowboys. And then so the last two to the Giants and then Kansas City minus two and a half a home against the Broncos. All right. Well, let's just start where we're, you know, near and dear to me, the Chicago Bears. You are taking the Panthers to cover, but the question is, are you taking the Panthers to pull off the win? Are the Panthers my sneaky frisky Panthers? Are they going to beat my beloved Chicago Bears? Is that what you're saying back back? So I'll say it again. Here we go. I heard you. I heard you. I heard you. Yeah. It was just the mic on the, the, I have to leave my phone on. But anyways. So to take him to win, I think I might. So this is another, I'm, you know, adjusting, doing different things.

12:39One thing's I'm like trying to dabble in like the over undergame. I'm not super confident in those in terms of like paying attention to, and to how it actually the results of them go. Just because the percentage of the money can be a little more skewed one way or the other in the overunders and then, you know, sprinkling the money line. So if I like a, a small dog, like why not just take a little bit on the money line. So I would take the panthers to win, but definitely going to take the panthers with the points. I think 68% money's on the bears. It's a home dog, which, you know, as we know, it's hard to win on the road in the NFL. It's also week one. Creates things happen in week one. I think playoff atmosphere in Carolina, week one. That's the energy of week one is high. Yeah. And so it'll be, it'll be interesting. And, you know, the vibes are high in Chicago. I think for the most part outside, you know, the defense. But I think, I think in as a national, national view of the bears, people are very high on, but I think when you get more micro into the, into the weeds, people know, okay, that defense

13:44can be a problem. And I just think, you know, even when the pan, I think I can't remember a playoff team that went to the playoffs year before that people are less interested in. And people are even, you know, not very interested in when they were in the playoffs than the panthers. So I like them. I mean, there was a guy, you might, you might know a guy who did ride with the panthers all year. And we happen to be the name on the podcast, Adam. It was Adam. Guys, it was me. I will take any opportunity to remind everyone that I picked the panthers. Okay. So I have no qualms with that. I think, I think it's going to be a tight game. I would not be surprised if it's actually much lower scoring than some people think. And not because bears offense doesn't show up, but because the panthers kind of do some, some simple, just keep away. I think they have the type of offense that can stay ahead of the stakes. You kind of see what the, what the nighters did last night to the Rams, right, Andrew? They were never, I think the first half or they didn't even face a third in more than six. So they were in those manageable down in distances. Very difficult to get off the field when I just don't know if the bears can play on the

14:47other side of the line of scrimmage against the team. That's willing to pound the rock. It's going to be a tough matchup. If the bears win, I think it'd be by field also. I have no qualms with that pick. Let's move to Indianapolis where the bears may end up playing someday with alongside the Indianapolis Colts. Where evens at Colts, who do you got covering winning? What's going on there? So this one, I would be less, I would be less inclined to take the money line, but Colts plus or in a half at home, I think the Ravens, New Coach, I think the vibes are high. People picking on the go to the Super Bowl. Colts are pretty, people are pretty down on and this is just a home dog getting points at like that. What was that? Yeah. 64% of the, 64% of the bets are on the Ravens. And then one of the things I'm looking at this year as well is so they have, so on the action network app, they have the bet percentages for all the games and then I have the pro edition. I got it for the season. You can also look at percentage of money so you can look at the differential. So it shows for all the games. And so right now it shows the Ravens getting 64% of the percentage, but there's a 17% difference

15:54so they're getting only 47% of the total money are coming down. So the 17% difference. What does that mean? It could mean so it doesn't necessarily mean that's all sharp money, but that's likely what it means is the sharp money, the bigger bettors are coming in on. More of them are coming in on the Colts, but it could also just mean there's a big, like for the Cowboys or like a very public team, there's like big, big bettors, big public bettors that are laying down money. So it doesn't always mean sharp, sharp money, but for the most part I think it indicates that the sharp money's on on that team. You got some rumbling over there. Is it raining? I don't think so. Sounds like some... It might be my... It might be my... It might be my... I'll switch my headphones to you. It's okay, a little... Let's see that helps just on here on the plus one. Sounds like some rain, which is what it'll feel like nice in... Nice in jewelry, if that's the right way to say that. Sad vibes if my bear's loose, but I've been...

16:54I've seen more stays as a bear's man. Like one lost that Carolina wouldn't... I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Week one, anything can happen. There's all one... Oh, there that sounds great. There we go, there we go. That's the thing, man. People forget how many good teams like Patriots last year lost to the Raiders and made to the Super Bowl. You can debate, should they have made to the Super Bowl, maybe not, but they had a good season. Bear started out in two. You've seen it, you know, team start slow. It happens. Week one? Week one is not a must win, but if you lose week one, you better win Lee II in the NFL. Oh, in two stances. Gary. Yeah. Like you said, I think you said the Patriots, you know, Raiders beat the Patriots. Crazy things have happened. So, week one's unpredictable, but I don't know. I just think vibes are low in Indy, you know, Daniel Jones coming back from an injury. I don't like them for the season, but I think... But you like them in this spot? I like them in this spot, for sure. Yeah. Week one, home opener. New coach for the Ravens. So, new coach for the head coach. And I think he's a great defensive coach, but it's still new for him on the road. Yeah.

17:54New play collar, Declendorial. He's like 19 years old. Never called plays in the NFL, Ben with Sean Peyton and Ben Johnson, sharp guy, but you got to see, you have to see him do it. I also think Lamar was just not very good last year, and I have a little more in fantasy as I'm talking about him. But yes, I know he was a little banged up. He also just didn't look right in general. And I think Lou Anoruma was a very creative defensive coach for the Colts. So he's seen Lamar a lot when he was in Sincere. You think they have, hey, they have those two corners. You talked about this when we preview the divisions. So yeah, I, the hook at home, I'm interested. I'm interested in this next game, Falcon Steelers. When you gave your predictions on the rundown a few minutes ago, I don't know if I caught which teams you were taking. So I got to ask, Falcon's at Steelers. And imagine the Steelers are a home favorite, which way are you going? Falcon's. So I think, I think the Falcon's team is pretty good outside of quarterback, which is obviously important. So I think the vibes are super low because they're talking about, you know, two of being cut and, you know, two of not being able to beat out somebody who's injured.

18:56And it's a road game at Pittsburgh, you know, vibes and Rogers vibes are high. He's talking about, you know, he'd come by out with this family, all this stuff. And so getting, you know, five and a half points is a lot for any NFL team week one, especially. I think we talked about in our preview session, like the offense, offensive weapons for Atlanta is really, are really good. And so you can see like B John taking over the Steelers have a good defense, but they're also old. So, you know, defense doesn't, fans like year to year the same way it's offense does. So, you know, do we know that the Steelers are going to have a good defense this year? I don't know. We'll see. But I like, I like the Falcon's. It's interesting. So, you know, what I talked about in terms of the differential between the percent and the total percent of bets and the percent of money is the Steelers have 50, 54 percent of the bets, but they have 78 percent of the money. So they're even 24 percent. So, so if I was looking at that, I'd be like, okay, well, it looks like the sharps are on the Steelers, but I don't know.

19:57So we'll look at it. I think another thing to look at too is when the percent of the bets and the percent of the money is weighted heavier on a certain team and the line doesn't move or moves the other way. That's like a key indicator that Vegas is like, we know all this money is coming on, but we still think like this is, you know, this is the number, which is interesting. Interesting to look at. So it's just things I'm looking at moving forward. I think the Falcon's defense is slept on in this game. I think the Falcons have a better defense than the Steelers, and I know they're missing that pass, both pass rushers. Obviously it would help my case if one of them was there, but I think that the Steelers, this idea, there's this idea that they have a better defense than they do. Does that make sense? They paid a lot of money, but I don't see a special defense. I know that a cornerback, a Porter, not Porter, sorry, what's his name? I'm messing up the name of this guy. Dad played the NFL Steelers. Yeah, Steelers. He's a joy Porter, Jr. You're a Porter, Jr. I got it right. He hasn't gotten paid. He wants a lot of money, but he might not be even a top. He's like a fringe top 10 cornerback.

20:58I don't know if you'd make the argument he is or not, but I think that there's a lot of, this Steelers have a really strong brand. We think of them as being, you know, consistently really good. I think it's kind of a hollow talent there. I don't think the talent is as good as the brand. They don't really match up. The problem is this. This is one thing I'll point out about the game. I find very fascinating. To look, I guess he got hurt the other day of practice. Did you see this? So yesterday, he tweaked his back or something like that. He tweaked something and they put Cooper Russian. I think he's going to be okay. But what I worried about with to is the last time he played in Pittsburgh was last Monday, last year on Monday night and he played horrible with the dolphins and that was when he got benched. Psychologically, this has nothing to do with maybe how you're viewing it from your perspective. I hope he goes in there and plays well because I think this, I think he needs to get the ball to my, I saw my playmakers in PC. But I could see that being an issue, right? You get into Pittsburgh and it's, you're kind of going back to the, you know, the scene where things went poorly. We'll see. I think the good thing is he's not going to Pittsburgh in the middle of December like it was last time where, you know, he's not built for that, that weather, the conditions.

22:01Yeah. Yeah, it goes. But man, he just did not look good in preseason. Hopefully their game plan though. It's just feed Bijon. I don't know if Aaron Hodgers is going to really be able to put up a ton of points. So it should be close game. And I, I like to, I like to pick five and a half as a lot for a Steelers team that I don't know if, did either of us take them to make the playoffs? I don't think we did. No, no, I'm, I'm not high on the Steelers. I just don't think I think they are an average team and they just need to blow it up, but they won't because that's not what they do. And I just, I don't know, like, like their skill talents, it's pretty good. I wouldn't, I mean, DK Medcapp's good player, pitman, good player, but this not like elite level talent, Janne Warren, he's a good player offensive line. I don't know, but I, the thing I'm more concerned about, I mean, Aaron Rodgers, right? Because he's limited in the offense that he's going to run because he doesn't want to get hit. He's old. So he's going to get the ball quickly and then the defense just being older. I don't know. I don't know how that translates this year. Aaron Rodgers is in prime form in the training, in training camp or a few days ago.

23:01Did you see him? Calling out one of his receivers. Yeah. Running the drag route and cutting it off. Prime Rodgers already already in prime position to, hey, run the red line. So I, I just have a feeling the whole Rodgers McCarthy, honeymoon phase. Well, it's going to be pretty short this season. Yeah. I think so too. All right. Moving on. Now we got the Cardinals at the Chargers. And I am about to ask you, what is the line between this game? And I cannot believe if you've taken the Cardinals, is this the first plug your nose game? Yeah. I mean, I would say the Falcons is probably, I think this card is probably plugged my nose and take it because the Falcons with no quarterback is like just real stinky. But yeah, this one Cardinals, I saw Cardinals plus nine and a half. It was at 10. So if there's a number, maybe closer to kickoff that gets up to 10, that would be awesome. But yeah, I mean, I think this is, this is a classic no brainer for me. I think I did lose. No, it was a Titans. That's screwed me last year. I kept betting a Titans and I kept losing.

24:02I think Cardinals probably were around that list too. But yeah, nine and a half, 58% of the bets, 72% of the money on the Chargers. So we'll see how that looks. But it's interesting because this line's actually come down. So it's kind of like that reverse, right? So if all the money is on one team, you'd expect Vegas to keep moving the line towards the Chargers, right? Chargers plus 10, 10 and a half, 11 to get, because they want more 50 feet. Yeah, they want people on both sides. And so you're not getting that and keeps moving the other way. So that's interesting to look at. And then obviously Cardinals are projected to be with the, you know, with a handful of teams, the worst team in the league, Chargers, people like, you know, you and I are both picking the Chargers to make the playoffs and go far. And we like their, their chances this year. So it's a, it's a good plug your nose and bet it kind of game. Yep. I, I system systematically. I am with you. Now my heart tells me this, if the Chargers get a, if the Chargers get a lead, I'm not saying

25:02they're going to do this. I'm not saying they're going to win this big, but if they get a big lead, I think this is a type of game, Harbaugh, Immigd annual. I'm not saying they'd run up the score crazy, but I think they'd want to showcase Herbert in this offense. Like if there'd be a week to do it, just to put the NFL on notice because of how bad the playoffs went. Like I feel really good about playing Quentin Johnston and Fantasy football this, this week. I think he's going to be a big playmaker for them down the field. I thought in the preseason, I felt that way before that pass. So I grew to you systematically. I would take it to I think, especially at 10, if you can get this at 10, man, and they, yeah, we'll say it, Andrew, it's 30 to 13 starters are out and they get that back to our cover. You're right. Whatever it is. It could be there for the taking. No doubt, no doubt. Cowboys at your favorite team that you hated on all off season, you hated them so much. Your favorite blue tent quarterback, giants. What do you got? Cowboys at giants. What's the line? The line right now is three. I am taking. So it's a Sunday night game. So this is one of the things that I'm including in the, in the model too is prime time because

26:06when I was looking at prime time dogs, they cover the prime time big time like over seven, 10 plus cover more often. I forget the percentage was close to 60%. That's probably 50 something. Again, we're trying to get over 52 and a half. Like that's how you break. That's how you become profitable, right? So I think people forget like they want to be in the 70s, 80s like the elite betters aren't in that percentage, right? We're trying to get 60% was the goal. That's what I hit last year. I think if you can hit 60%, that's awesome. If you can get 55%, I think that's awesome. So the taking the dog in prime time is what I like to do. This is a home dog in prime time as well. And I'm not big on the giants, but people, the cow, people love the cowboys and it's interesting to look at the money because it's like a 50, 50 split in terms of that percentage, but 81% of the total money is on the cowboys. That's a 34% difference. That's 47 and 81. Everyone loves the cowboys.

27:06The last boss season. I mean, they're already nationally always high, but there's people that really believe in the team based off the offense and the additions on the defense. Yeah, exactly. And I think there's some teams that are more bet publicly than other teams like the Patriots for a while. I don't think they already more, but the chiefs, the cowboys, the packers. So you always have to, you have to always put that in your own personal valuation, but I don't know. I just think vibes are super high in the cowboys. It's a division game. You're getting three points at home. I like the giants in this set. Fair, very fair, very fair, very sound. Now we move on to a game. Well, actually, before we move on, just don't, if you want to, if you want to have, you have a good day. Don't ask John Harbaugh, who's playing in the game, who's healthy, who's not healthy. Did you, did you catch that clip in the presser? Do John Harbaugh laid the law down with the New York media? They were asking about Malik neighbors and he was like, well, I'm not going to tell you

28:06who's playing in the game. Yeah, at a moment, you're the, he said, we can now, we can have a productive press conference. Right. But everything I tell you, I'm telling the cowboys. So I'm not going to do that, man. Yeah. I'm talking on, I saw the, on YouTube, like I was scrolling on shorts. I really thought it was AI, dude. I thought it was AI because how animated he was and how, what do you mean he didn't cuss or anything, I don't think. But he was pretty hot. So Harbaugh's already laying down the law with the, the New York media. So we'll see. There's definitely a sense of urgency. I think the coaching matchup in that game too, Cowboys Giants. Listen, I'm not trying to be mean. Brian Shodden, I think there's, I think he might, he still has a lot to prove to me. I don't know if he's a good coach yet. Yeah. Right. Yeah. Harbaugh, you could say what you want, but Harbaugh runs a tight ship, dude. He's, he's the guy wins games. I know you could say, well, he had Lamar, well, he had Joe Flacco. I feel like when Tyler Huntly played last year, they won games. Go ahead. Yeah. And the organization was always stable. Whether you give credit to the GM coach, I think both are, are important in that, in

29:07that respect. Yeah. It would be interesting to see. I think, I think both teams have a lot to prove. I think that, I think we're assuming that Cowboys defense is going to be improved. We don't know. Obviously, you know, it's, you have to find out, but, you know, could the giants establish the run and, you know, make this grind it out, close game. Yeah, for sure. You know, with, especially with that, that giants pass rush, could they force, you know, fumble, turn over, pick, make it weird. Yeah. And it's the division game. We're talked about. Division games are always weird. And so the interesting things, you know, a little nugget to look for, 87% of the bets are on the under, a 47 and a half. So, yeah, maybe some, some, I like to take the under and prime time games just because I think it's public to bet the over, because the betting the over is more fun and people's tended, you know, bet over some prime time games, but that would might be a juicy, juicy over to take 47 and a half. I could see it. I could see it. I think the giants offense, if Malik neighbors is playing, right? And we don't know if he's going to be himself right away, but if he's 80% himself, 85, Malik

30:10neighbors, I think they have Darnell Mooney as ale likely. That's not bad compared to what they had last year. And I'd like Wondale Robbins. I wish they still had him. I think that would be more interesting. So can they move the ball and score plus you and I know I'm not that high on Dart, but he does. He seems to be better off script than on script. Yeah. Is the Cowboys defense really that good? I don't know. They made some additions. I don't get, I don't get pumped up when teams say, oh, they spent their first and their second round pick on defensive players. Dude, not every, these picks don't always hit. Everyone's going to be good when you draft them, but then, you know, by the end of year three, who gets resigned? Who doesn't? It's always just, yeah. It's just, hey, you're just taking a lottery ticket and scratching it off. You don't know if they're going to be good. They've got the defensive tackle that they brought in from the Jets. They signed in the long term. We'll be revisiting that that Michael Parsons trade because I like what the Cowboys said. It's hard to disagree with it, but I still, I'm not sold that. I feel, and I know you don't feel this way. Maybe yet, I feel that the Bengals defense will be better than the Cowboys defense this year, mainly because I think Dexter Lawrence in the back end for the Cowboys, those corners,

31:14Jacksill, DJ Turner. And there's a good combination there, but we'll be watching in prime time. See how this Cowboys defense looks? It wouldn't surprise me if Jackson Dart is able to make some plays off script and score some points. Got it. Bring it back to the Bengals. Hey, Joey Bees up there. I got Jemar Chase up there right up there, boys. Okay. It's funny because I'm a bearer's fan, but I find ways to bring up the Bengals. Like, I could be in a work meeting and someone could say something and they could, some side of out Joe. You know, Joe Burrow actually. This is what he once said. Here we go. Let's get to your last NFL game. It sounded that you were hesitant to make a declaration. So we're talking through this one. Let's get to it. Denver Brown goes at Kansas City division game Monday night football. My home's coming back off injury. Chris Jones won your older, Travis Kelsey won your older, but they bring in Kenneth Walker. Left tackle for the chiefs. I think he's on the pop list. He's out. They've got an on was an undrafted Ricky plan. Left tackle. Interesting. Something like that. Yeah. But I'm sure they're a dog. Tell me in a second. Brown goes come in.

32:14They added Jalen model. Sean Payton will not be calm plays. Very interesting. I think it's a big storyline to pay attention to in the game. How long does that last? Like a one point to Sean said, yeah, you know what? I'm better at this than you. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's going to be really hard for him. But Jalen model comes in. I think the Broncos kind of returned a lot of their team from last year on defense. So by the way, didn't know this by her. Greg Cosssell say this. I don't know if I'm going to get his name right, but the defensive tackle for the Broncos. Something Alan. He led the league in quarterback pressures and hits last year. And I don't know his name. I can't think of it. I think his last name is Alan. That's a very interesting, very underrated player. The Denver Broncos events is really good. So it's a very tough match up for my homes right away. But if anybody can go out there and just light it up and look like that injury never happened, it would be Patrick. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I'm very interested to see it where you're going to go with this. I think it's Zach Allen. You turn it on. Zach Allen. Yeah. He's very underrated. Zach Allen. He's the technical defensive tackles. No one talks about them either. They're post safety. Super good.

33:14Yeah. We just look at the defensive end. Who's the defensive end, right? I think we get. Yeah. I mean, I think the Broncos defensive ends are underrated. I mean, it's just like we just talk about Surtan obviously because he's really freaking good and then, you know, rally moss because he always gets picked on. But I think we talk about the Broncos more as like a unit, you know, rather than individual players. But yeah, they're going to be really good. I like, I think we're both down on the Broncos just as the top end talent. I think that the roster is loaded. But you know, you get the chiefs minus two and a half. I think the chiefs are going to have a better year this year. I think my home is going to be better, but you don't really get. And maybe it's just history kind of blending in in terms of, oh, it's my homes at home. You know, you got to take the chiefs, but 70% of the bets, 79% of the money on the Broncos, which I thought was interesting. Oh, that's a big. That's a big number. Yeah. So it's a lot of money. And I think, and I think the line has stayed pretty consistent. I think it opened up at minus two and a half was, and it's been pretty consistent.

34:15And maybe it's they don't want to get that chiefs are favor. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. By two and a half. And so is the new three point home advantage? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Usually it's if, yeah, the home, home field advantage about two and a half points. So so Vegas is saying these scenes are equal. And so, you know, the key numbers that we talked about before is, you know, three, seven, ten, because that's kind of like the touchdown, field goal score. I mean, six is getting there, especially now when teams go for two more often. And I think you're seeing a scene more games and at six point, nine point, stuff like that, because teams are going for two more often. But yeah, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I'm trying to try and do five games this, this year, you know, do five best bets. Because sometimes I like some, some weeks I love everything on the board. Some weeks I don't like anything on the board. But if I keep it to my five best bets, I gotta be good. Unfortunately, it couldn't, you know, I had, I would have put the Patriots in the 49ers in there.

35:16But, you know, you can't do that. It's still on the, still on the record. But you're, you're useful about credit in your account. I mean, that's what really matters, right? Yeah. Is where the money falls in your pocket, right? Yeah, for sure. But the, the one thing I want to say about this chiefs game, though, is, so you're taking chiefs, right? Two and a half. Okay. I, and I, I like it. Systematically, I like it. What, what I, what I'm going to be, this is not just a chiefs, we don't have this game out on the list. We, we chatted about it to open the Vikings. Two teams I'm going to pay heavily, heavily, heavily going to pay attention to. I'm going to keep my eye on chiefs and the Vikings. Well, both of those teams commit to running the ball this year because K.O.C. and Andy Reed, like they bring in Kenneth Walker and they paid him a lot of money at the time as we're running back now. The market move, respectfully so to the two guys at the top. They're, they're really great. Beeshawn and Gibbs. Andy Reed and K.O.C. Every year, it feels like they get impatient and they get, they just want to throw the ball. I have, in fact, one of, I think Andy Reed's best games he's ever called was the first

36:19super bowl win over the Eagles, where I don't know if you know this. Remember, the chiefs were down in that game at half, but if you go back and watch, Pachako had a really good second half. Andy Reed's kept running the ball because of the pass crush for the Eagles was really good. That was actually a big takeaway from that game was, wow, I can't believe Andy Reed ran the ball as much in the second half as he did. And you're bringing Kenneth Walker, but still is, is he going to run the ball and be balanced? I feel like you need to to Monday night. But I'm looking at over the course of the season and the other question for the chief specifically is, is Kenneth Walker? Is he really a bell, bell cowback? Can he really carry the load, be a third down guy? I mean, you're paying him essentially like a total all around running back. Will they get that out of him? I'm curious because he did get beat up a few times in Seattle, right? He wasn't to lead back then. So I'm just paying attention to, will they come into the run? I think they're going to need to, especially early in the season and then Kenneth Walker. Like is this guy going to be all around touching the ball, getting whatever number of touches

37:19that a bell cowback would get in the NFL now? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think, I think if you look at the chief's roster, there's lots of questions. Chris Jones getting older. They're, you know, the defense of Lyman, Chris, besides him, Carl Oftis. I mean, I don't know, he's a good player, but he's not like an elite level player. The secondary, you know, they have a rookie starting who's tapped in, tapped in, draft pick, but you got to prove it first. So there's a lot of question marks on defense. There's a lot of question marks on offense who are skill players going to be, you know, their best player was rehabbing in jail. Javier Worthy. He just, it's interesting. And I don't understand it conceptually, but like why he could be so fast in the 40, but like he just doesn't, when I watch him, I don't, I don't think like, oh, that's like the fastest guy that's run the 40. Like he's fast, obviously, but I'm like, when you, when you watch Tyreeke, you're like, holy cow, that guy's just faster than everybody. You don't really see that was Javier Worthy, you know what I mean? And he just, I think Andy Reed tries real hard to scheme him open and get him touches,

38:20but he just, he's hurt all the time. And he just hasn't really performed like you'd want your, I think they took him in the first round, picked to be. So like offensively, yeah, Kenneth Walker was a boom and bust kind of guy in Seattle. And you hope that he could be more consistent with the chiefs. So there's a lot of questions. If I'm looking just at us, I mean, I obviously, my home's coming back from injury and then Kelsey being older, but you know, other than that, you know, all those questions, but the Broncos, I think they're rosters better than the chiefs. I don't think anybody would argue that, but you know, Vegas is putting this at a even, you know, they're saying that the team two teams are even. So it's interesting. I, I'll take the chiefs home. I still believe in the homes. I think you'll have a better season this year. But yeah, I mean, I think objectively speaking, it, there's so many questions with the chiefs and the Broncos look like the overwhelming better team to me. But I agree. Yeah, I am curious for this. I'm curious to take them. Yeah, for this game, though, specifically, what is the overrun during this game?

39:23I'd imagine it's a low man switch to. I'm going to check something. I'm curious the last few times they've played. Yeah, 43 and a half is pretty low. Yeah, I'm going to check this. And again, we're checking recently out here to check this for me on the fly. But I'm curious. The last, I typed in the last 10 times, but I want to see the last. And of course, okay, here we go. Here are the scores of the chiefs Broncos games. I'm going to exclude that game in 2025 when they played at the end of the year, chiefs sad everyone because they already made the playoffs. Broncos won. And I don't know if you remember, but if the Broncos, if the chiefs would have just played their starters, Joey Burrow, what had made the playoffs. See how I bring it back to the bangles. Yeah, yeah. Back to the bangles. Here we go. So here are the scores. I'm going to go back to 2023. Just the scores. I don't know who wins. Doesn't matter. Just listen to these points between the two teams. 2023, chiefs 19 Broncos eight. What does it put a game 2023 again? 24 Broncos chiefs nine. So kind of flipped there. Not too high scoring. This sounds this is why brother bring it up next time they play in November of 2024. Chiefs win 16 to 14 against Broncos.

40:24Then you got that weird game. Then you've got last year Broncos at the chiefs 22 to 19. Then again, December Broncos 20 chiefs 13. I feel like this is a 17 16 game. I feel like this is a 19 20 game. That's what I do. I like the under a lot. And I know I know you might be thinking it's prime time. I bet some people might take I don't know if anyone's taken over because they're like all 43 points is low. Let me take the over. I like 19 20 in this game. I'm telling you, I think I think that I think the chiefs are going to have to be conservative with with my homes and hope keep it close, make game winning plays at the end for Patrick. And I just think I think I pass. Trust is tough. So no no left tackle. But I'm not big on the on the Broncos offense. I think Jalen models a nice player. I'm going to trust bags at home, even though they I mean, transactionally, if you look to the chiefs losing McDuffy, losing Watson, another year older for Jones, they didn't really add any crazy talent on the defense. It's really me just picking spags at home, thinking he can keep that offense under control.

41:25So anyways, I just wanted to point out that the over under is interesting in that game because of how close those teams play each other. Yeah, I mean, I think if you're looking at percentage of bets and money 77% is 75% under. So I'll be interesting to see again, I'm not I'm not recommending take one way or the other. It's just things I'm looking at this year just to try and you know, spice it up a little bit. Definitely. All right. Before we get out of here, college NCAA transition to football, college football, we still, we still got some picks. We didn't write them down before, but you have them ready. I am very curious if Boise State slips in here because they got to be riding high after what they did to, you know, that game Oregon. And in fact, when I was watching Oregon game, I was thinking, as we're texting, I was like, man, I wonder what Andrew's going to do with Boise State. Are they going to have a, they're not going to cover next week against a lesser opponent? So give us your college bets. What do we got? Yeah. I mean, there's like so many to choose from because I felt like there was just so much insanity. Like we didn't even, like we didn't even talk about like the Thursday night.

42:28I don't know if you knew about like the Rutgers UMass game. Like universe, UMass doesn't want hasn't been like a division or like a FPS school in like two years and they beat Rutgers, you know, and they paid like Rutgers paid on like $1.15 million to lose, you know, that's just like that. That's crazy. Yeah. So with that information, I'm taking Sacred Heart. I've never even watched a second of them. Sacred Heart plus 24 and a half against UMass. And then Oregon minus 23 and a half against Oklahoma State. I feel like they're just going to crush Oklahoma State Minnesota. Like minus one at home against Mississippi State, Kentucky plus 10 at home against Alabama. And then Michigan, obviously, this was going to be a guaranteed pick Michigan plus five and a half at home against Oklahoma. I think everybody's going to be against Michigan after that game. You can, but I do guarantee we add any extra time for the Michigan game. We're going to do an overrun. How much time is that it? Dude, I saw the funniest thing.

43:30I should have sent it to you. It was this, this wouldn't be such an issue. This time clock management wouldn't be such an issue if football in America would just adopt the soccer rules where they get extra time because I got to be honest. Watching the world cup, it makes no sense, dude. I don't understand it. I'm like, we're thinking of these numbers like extra time. And then they're like extra extra time. I don't know. Anyways, crazy. Crazy stuff. The state is juicy or a Memphis plus nine and a half at Boise State. I might have to add that to my card. But yeah, there's just interesting college. A little different in terms of gambling because the betting percentages and especially, you know, still Friday, I guess, you know, Saturday, tomorrow. But, you know, the betting percentages are a little different. Like you look at rice versus Notre Dame, like 89% of the bets are coming down. Rice doesn't really make sense. So I think college is also bet less than the NFL. And so they can be skewed by the variation. It can be more skewed that way, which is interesting.

44:32But, you know, I think like 90% of the bets are coming in on Alabama. So in week one, you know, it's hard because so many of these teams are playing, you know, bumps or not bombs. That's disrespectful. But lesser opponents and they look really good and then, you know, it'll be interesting to see, you know, I kind of wanted to take Clemson after they just got absolutely dog walked by LSU, forget who they're playing. I think so. Is it over for dabbo? Swinging is he out? I think so. His last year, yeah. I think it's going to be hard. Like I heard somebody compare him to like Bobby Bowen at Florida State, where it's just like you've just done so much for the program that it's hard for them to kick you out. They want to come to that and say, hey, I'm done. I don't want to do something. Yeah, exactly. And it's just like, you know, this guy's won us that multiple national titles brought us back to national relevance because forever, it was always Clemsoning was a verb, you know, like the team that was doing really well and then they lose a game they shouldn't and then they wouldn't win the conference or compete for titles because they'd lose dumb

45:37games they shouldn't lose to. And so it wasn't until dabbo got there and dabbo was like a nobody, you know, and he'd built that program. But he isn't a Kirby smart or the dude from Oregon, I forget his name. But they're like really good at, okay, they were good, especially Kirby, good before NIL and all this stuff and they've also been able to transition in. And I think Oregon and Georgia are really high in terms of retention of recruits. So it's interesting for them, but like those are two coaches or, you know, Sark or Ryan Day. I guess it helps when you have a bunch of money. But those are coaches that are able to adjust to what the situation is rather. And Duke, you know, I would Duke basketball for a while was that way, right? Where they wouldn't do the one in Don's and they had the older players, which is funny because it's kind of swinging back in the college ranks anyways. But you know, being able to adjust to this is how we always did it. This is how we're going to do it. It's like, well, times of change. You know, it's like, look at tech tech. They're just throwing oil money at all these players to get in and they made the playoffs.

46:42So it's our good old, it's our good old thing that we'd make fun of some of the military people that we dealt with the way. I did this way. So you have to do it this way. It's like times of change and you didn't like doing it and it didn't make sense. So why are you making me do it when it does? You didn't like it. It doesn't make sense. Yeah, exactly. It's like, here's a better way. We can just do it better this way. We can just do it better. And so, yeah. Yeah. And I think it's hard with Davo too because you want titles. And it's like, I know you want titles, but times of change, dude. Yeah. Definitely. Definitely. So give it back to us in a straight line here. College pitch. I know you ran through them. But give me the each winner right now. What do you got? Pick it. Sacred Heart plus 24 and a half at UMass Oregon minus 23 and a half at Oklahoma State. Minnesota minus one home. Excuse me. Against Mississippi State. Kentucky plus 10 at home against Alabama. Michigan plus five and a half home against Oklahoma. There we go. College football. And then of course, we got you for another for another minute here on the podcast. Give us your not on the books.

47:44Prediction. Vikings. AT&T Stadium opens up. Against division rival Green Bay. How do you see it going? I want to know it. I want to hear it. Do not AT&T Stadium. Isn't it? It's not what it's called. What's the name of your grass stadium? I'm going to hate. Hey, I'm a I'm an evolving skull fan here. Right. I do know a lot of stadiums. AT bank. Is that it? No, it's a bank. Yeah. It's a bank. It's got to be a bank. It's a school bank. Is it school bank? What is it? It should be. I forget. The stadium is Dallas. And over here in the wrong names. It's like, hey, it's like when the dealers went from whatever it was before that I know to act. Hines field. Hines field. And now it's, it's a they changed it. It's no longer Hines field. It's at. It's something terrible. Yeah. I mean, I think I think Seattle did the same thing like some some stadiums like it doesn't even matter that it's a prop or a company. It's just like what their name should be like their stadium name like Hines field.

48:45A relevant if it they're still sponsoring it should just be Hines field. You know, it's just like certain stadiums are just what they should be. I agree. I do know the I do know the I do know the Bangal Stadium. That's pay core. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead. Well, that's your prediction. I think the Packers win. You know, I of course because I'm a pessimistic like fan. I just think vibes are too high in Minnesota opening with the division rival Packers. You know, what's going on at receiver? What's going on at running back? You know, defense. They have all these question marks. I just think they come in and you know, they win by a field goal or something. So I would if I had to if I was a betting man, I would take the Packers plus the points at Minnesota one and a half. And that is a pick. I see where you're coming from. I hear you. If my prediction, which I feel very strongly convicted with is that the Vikings make the two seed. I think I based it off of them going to and oh, just start the season because I really

49:46believe they're playing the Packers at the perfect time at home. No, Mike up. I got to tell you man, when Kyler Murray has time to throw, he's very accurate like in his career. I the Packers have him on the game without Mike Parsons. No Josh Jacobs. There's a lot. There's a lot going on over in Green Bay. Tucker Kraft is he going to be as fully I feel good, man. I a Harrison Smith come back. I think is a big boost to the team. I would be I get it. It's a pick him game and that's how it should be. If I'm a Vikings fan, I wish like the Bears played a Packers week five. I think my wedding day, of course, but Mike could be there. He's probably not going to be there, but Tucker Kraft will be four weeks back. Josh Jacobs could be back as a Vikings fan. You got to be happy that you're playing them when you're playing them and where you're playing them. Yeah. I mean, the line opened up at Packers minus two and a half and it swung all way to Vikings minus one and a half. Great game. It's showing that the sharp, sharp sides on the Vikings, at least give me. Yeah, give me your give me your give me a few memories of playing the Packers as a Vikings fan on the way out.

50:46I got one that comes to mind Vikings Packers, but what are some big memories? I mean, I remember watching is Antonio Freeman catching the ball on the sideline and Chris Dishman was the corner and he thought he broke a pass up and so I think it was like Sunday night Monday night and he was celebrating like incomplete, incomplete and it was like Chris Freeman had down his back and like landed on his back and he turned around caught it, got up and ran for a touchdown as Chris Dishman's like celebrating. That's always a good one. Then there's like the Randy Moss moaning, you know, where he goes, where's the touchdown and moons. That's always a good one. I like that. Packers, what about far of going back there? That was big. Yeah, that was nice. That was, I mean, that was such a fun time. Yeah, that was a fun season. You know, the one that comes to mind for me because they're playing each other opening day. Do you remember when the Packers went to Minnesota not too long ago when Rogers was there and it was when Watson was a rookie? I think a rookie or a second year player first play the game. Rogers throws a beautiful deep ball.

51:47Watch it. Drops it. You remember that. I remember thinking they're not winning this game because that's just you can't start a game. You can't start a season like that, right? Yeah. Yeah. That's a one's hard to come back from. Yeah, the very difficult. Very difficult. After that. It was fun. X-Bets is back. Andrew, we thank you so much for coming on the podcast. We can't thank you enough for all that you're doing with them with the model. We are going to be watching these games intently. We will update your record moving forward weekly. Have a great weekend, buddy.