E516 CAPTAIN Gained 369 TPI Points. HOMECOMING Lost 414. Inside the 59% Failure Rate of April 2020’s Top Genomic Sires

In April 2020, genomic lists promised a revolution in Holstein genetics. Five years later, 59% of those "elite" bulls never earned a daughter-proven proof, while Genosource Captain surged +369 TPI points and AOT Homecoming cratered -414. This episode tracks 401 bulls to December 2025, exposing why TPI volatility, base changes, and formula shifts crushed most — and handed massive gains to a few. If you're still betting heavy on young genomics without a proven anchor, here's the data to rethink your matings before the next proof run hits.

Key Takeaways:

• Why 59% of top genomic bulls vanished — and the biological vs. institutional reasons behind the attrition.
• The TPI "rollback": How the 2025 base change and feed efficiency formula erased 42.5 points on average — even from solid transmitters.
• Outliers decoded: Captain's 12,000-daughter proof vs. Homecoming's crash, with barn math showing $500/cow/year gaps.
• Stud scorecard: STgenetics gained +21.8 TPI average; ABS dropped -70.6 — which lineup matches your risk tolerance?
• Daughter-proof reality: Bulls with 5,000+ daughters gained 62 TPI on average — the filter no one talks about.

We break down the April 2020 genomic Holstein cohort like no one else — 401 bulls followed to their December 2025 CDCB/HAUSA daughter-proven fates, revealing genomic accuracy on fat/protein (correlations 0.76/0.71) but brutal index volatility from the April 2025 base rollback (-650 lb milk, -38 lb fat), 2021 Feed Saved integration, and 2024 fertility rebalance. Hear the full crashes: Supercharge's 2.32-point PTAT collapse, Legacy/Heroic/Delta pedigrees overexposed. Then the climbers — Captain's 99% milk reliability across 800 herds, Parfect's +144 TPI with 19,079 daughters — and the stud rankings that show STgenetics' EcoFeed foresight crushed the field. Barn math translates it to your cheque: Captain daughters deliver ~$250 extra/cow/year in components vs. cohort average, scaling to $125K on 1,000 cows. No hypotheticals — real FMMO January 2025 prices. This isn't theory; it's the playbook to build a sire stack that survives base changes and pays when formulas flip. Progressive producers and geneticists: audit your list against these thresholds before spring matings.

Grab the full article, charts, and stud scorecard at https://www.thebullvine.com/genetic-evaluation-review/captain-gained-369-tpi-points-homecoming-lost-414-inside-the-59-failure-rate-of-april-2020s-top-genomic-sires/. Subscribe now for weekly genetics breakdowns, proof rundowns, and milk cheque math. Drop your biggest genomic surprise in the comments or tag us @TheBullvine on social — what's one bull from your 2020 invoices still delivering?