Drive9.11.26OverUnder: Steelers Over/Under

0:00So we heard Amanda is off to school? Yeah, big step. More independent. She's not going to call every week asking for more money for books, is she? With smart start banking from S&T Bank, she gets budgeting tools, scholarship opportunities, and can send money using Zell. Wow. I guess college is about getting smarter, right? Give them financial independence and yourself peace of mind. Stop by your local branch. Call 835-2265 or visit STBank.com to send money with Zell. Both parties must have an eligible checking or savings account, terms and conditions apply. S&T Bank, member FDIC. I think it's a good idea to have a good time.

1:08As you mentioned, as fast as after week one, it's like nobody cares. They don't care about last year anymore, right? Talk to me about what's going on here. So with that, I had some over and under for you, individual statistics for Steelers, and then some maybe just bigger superlatives. All right. So it relates to this upcoming season that I wanted to run past you and discuss with you here to close down this first game. Does that work for you? No question. All right. Let's start here, Matt Williamson, Aaron Rogers, over under 28 and a half touchdown passes. Under bits of good number. I think they're going to play a lot of power football when they get in tight. And that's not Rogers' history. I mean, it throws a lot of touchdown passes for a reason. But if the O-line starts popping, the most efficient way to get a yard or two is you hand it to a big back. You know, it just is. I mean, that hasn't changed in 60 years. My hunch is McCarthy's very aware that run behind Darnell or the full back behind Darnell

2:14with a back that's low to the ground and hard to tackle. I think the rushing touchdowns will go up. I guess is my rebuttal to that. I think you're right. I've seen that number though. I've seen that number as high as 30 in some places. Yeah. Which I think is a little too. I think about 20. I mean, you take that. That's a pretty good year. If you tell me right now, Aaron throws 30 touchdown passes. Yeah, even 28, 29, you know, absolutely take that right now. Over under six and a half interceptions for Aaron Rogers. That's another good one. I mean, that's about where I'd put the line to. We know he's very conscious of putting the ball in harm's way and his interception of touching on ratio and his career is ridiculously good. I'm going to go over. I mean, it's hard to say seven and under. I mean, that's it. I'm going to assume he plays 17 games. Right. There's going to be a tip ball here and there. If he goes 28 and seven, that's a four to one touchdown interception.

3:14They're signing up. Right. Yeah. I mean, if I told you he went 26 to nine, I would take it. I probably would probably be like, that's good. No, three to one. Yeah, it's pretty good. Right. All right, Matt Trent Jordan, what? Little background here first. Okay. And 23 TJ 2023 TJ had 19 sacks. Okay. Not bad. 24. He had 11 and a half last year. He had seven TJ watt over under nine and a half sacks this season. I was sitting here going. I'm expecting 12. So I'm going to go over. Oh, so you're going way over. So I almost put that. I think he's highly capable. I almost put that number at 10 and a half, but I went down to nine and a half. Maybe I should have kept it at 10 and a half. You would have still gone over regardless. I still think he's a very good pass, Russia. I expect his snap count to come down. And that may work through his advantage just in terms of freshness and all that stuff. I don't know how much the whole moving around thing. I've talked about this a lot. I don't think it gives you a massive advantage to take high Smith and put him on the left

4:14and what on the right. But I do think you'll see more stunting looping. I think he'll drop into coverage more. You know, like he's hardly done that over the years. And that's not good for sacks, but I'm just talking about in usage on passing downs could change even if his alignment doesn't change drastically. They weren't a bad sack team last year, but I think collectively they're going to get a bunch. They might come from everywhere. They might come from everywhere. And I think they'll trust their coroner's model have 10. Yeah. And him has five. Right. Betten has five and a half. Yeah. And Harmon has two. Yeah. And Ramsey has two. Queen has two. Like back in the day, the steel one, I mean, the Steelers led to league what, five years in row and sacks. And they would get four from Vince Williams, three from Hilton. You know, like that kind of dried up lately. They're all coming from the edge guys and they're really good group. But those little bonus ones are nice.

5:14Yes, they are. Yeah. And they're really leading the league in sacks. Yeah. Every year as you were getting them from your ad rushers, but you were getting them from that corner and you were getting them from that lineback. They have like well guys with multiple sacks when the season was ended. Some of them are two, three. So let's stick with this then. By the way, before we started this, I meant to mention thanks to video producer stat guy. Now resident faculty, facilities, janitor, I'm microphone picture microphone fixer TV for fixing my microphone there. A couple trades over there. A sure is. I tell you what, the more you can do last year, Alex ismith in 13 games had nine and a half sacks. Over under 10 for Alex ismith this year. Good number. I was sitting there saying I think nine is a quality year for him. I know it hasn't held true, but I think what will out sack him. I think both of them will see a reduction in snaps. They'll also see an increase of snaps with her big. I don't know, that's just kind of a gut thing.

6:15I mean, I think that's right in that neighborhood, double digits, nine to 12 seems about right, but I leaned under just because I don't want every one of these to be positives. You know, Aaron's going to throw a million touchdowns and TJ is going to have 26. I mean, like, I know how it's not how it works. So much of the pot to go around. Right. That's just not out works. You know, Matt finally, we'll go to Nick Herbig then seven and a half sacks in 15 games last year. He also had three force fumbles in an interception. He's. Over under nine and a half for Nick Herbig. I was sitting here going. I'm going to go with nine. If he goes over, I'm going over. Or I look at it's funny because when you preface it, it gives me a second to think. I'm like, what would I set it out? I'm like, if he goes over nine, I'm going to go under if he goes. Per pass rush attempt. I bet he'll be the Steelers best pass rusher, including what, including high Smith, you know, per snaps attacking the quarterback. I bet he gets home the highest percentage. But I got to think he still has fewer snaps of what nice. I would, I would think he's going to be third barring major.

7:16Of course, of course. I think we can say, Matt, there is the percentage. If you were to get Vegas to give you one statistically of all three of those guys playing all 17 games, probably pretty low. Of course. But does one miss one game? Does one miss four or five games that we'll play into? I don't know the answer to that. So I can't answer those things. Right. So I got to kind of look at it through a lens of they all have semi equal health and reasonably good health. A lot of you know, Matt last year, the Steelers as a team had 48 total team sacks. I'm going over on that. I was going to put the over under it 50 and a half over. I don't think they'll lead the league, but I think they'll be top five 51 and a half. You know, you're getting about that neighborhood. I think they'll trust their corners more thus blitz more. I think that has it say this because it could make the pose in coaching staff look bad, but I think there'll be fewer easy completions for opposing quarterbacks. Okay. Where the ball just comes out.

8:17I mean, the time to throw against the Steelers is always very low because they fear the past rush. And I didn't feel like the past rush married with the coverage scheme well enough to realize that. I know the balls coming out, but I'm giving up too many easy completions. I need to contest that first read a little bit more and I expect that to happen. Thus, I pat the ball for half a second more and here comes our big, you know, sure. Couple more of these Matt. DK Metcalf in 23 had eight touchdowns 24 or five touchdowns last year, six touchdowns. DK Metcalf over or under seven and a half touchdowns. I'll still say under. Is that a good number? Is that a good number? That's a good number. Yeah. I think his average of the target will go. I think his average of the target will go up. I think his degree of difficulty will go up. So maybe if you like combine all the yardage he got on touchdowns, that'll go up. Although he did have that super long one in minutes against the Vikings, but I think

9:18he'll score hopefully he gets a couple more of those this year. Yeah. Like I could see him scoring more or three times this year instead of just once. And that one was a lot of run after the catch from what I remember. It was like I would like to plant route and he just beat everybody. Now that certainly could be in the cards, but I'd like to see one or two or three. Or he just runs past the do you know, 190 pound corner tries jammed up with the line, gets some of them and then met calf. It gets big in the open stiff arm to head. Yeah, opens up that gate and Aaron lobs an easy throw over the top and he's dancing in the end zone. You know, he did a lot of that in Seattle. Three more questions for you in this exercise, Matt Williamson. This one's a yes or no. A stealers offense of lime and makes a pro ball or an all pro. Yes or no. Yes. Zach Frazier. He's the odds on favor, but I think father who's got a shot. Butter me up, baby. One of those it feels like one of those guys. It's time. It's time and I will say Linda. Well, no, because Linda bomb still in the AFC and so is Creed, but Linda bomb is now

10:20going to be on a team that's getting much less attention. Yeah. And Frazier's been around long enough now that he's got every I he's not seeking up anybody, you know. All right, two more Matt and it's quite simply I want to know who's going to be your offensive MVP for the Steelers who's going to be your defensive MVP for the Steelers and you can start on either side. I'm only thinking offense at this moment. I can't give it to a running back. I can't see one just being so dominant. It's almost hard not to pick Aaron Rogers, but I gave it to Kenny Gainwell. I never would have guessed Gainwell on September 11th last year. No doubt. I think Frazier's the best answer. Oh, baby, but they that's something rarely going to give it to a center, but I think he's going to be their most valuable non quarterback. Pick the quarterbacks kind of boring, you know, pick the quarterback is. Yeah, we're doing the bills. I'm going to watch out. Defensively.

11:21I don't say I'm going to say he's their best player, but I think Benton's going to be in the conversation. Okay. And I think that's kind of a bold take. That is a bit of a bold take at this point. I like it. How about this optimistic move? Defensive MVP, Joey Porter, Jr. Well, I would love that with a new contract, maybe week one or two, he gets his feet wet and then get what you pay for. If you are asking for a guy on the defensive side of the football, who's going to make their first pro bowl or all pro, I think he's probably the easy answer. Yeah. Could have been one last year. I think the three Ed druchers might cancel each other out for an MVP type of performance. And, you know, it's cliche. A little boring cliche. Because as you and I have mentioned before, whenever you're kind of consistently getting accolades for your greatness, it almost becomes more difficult to stand out. Yeah, it's like, fuck, I can't. Well, was he better than last year? I don't know. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

12:22It's a little cliche, Matt, but it's also true. It's a, it's a passing league. Yeah, yeah. And so I mean, if Joey has another year in terms of lockdown, not giving up touchdowns, plus he adds three or four interceptions, taking the ball away. Go along with it. Yeah. We certainly helped. I can stand on the ball. Yeah. I can definitely, I can definitely see that. Tell you what, though, we'll certainly be keeping an eye on the status of number 24, as it relates to somebody and potentially onward. That you and I are going to know anything while we're on the air, but there's still four to eight hours to kick off when we turn the record button off. And I'd love it within the next 24. If there was a breaking news from a Jerry Doolack or an Adam chef, there's somebody a joy, porter, junior in the Pittsburgh Steelers have put pen to paper. But for now, we wait and we anticipate Matt. That is an hour in the books and hour number two. I want to have the return of. Do you remember a fun little segment we did last year? Five star Friday where quite remember the details, but yes, I do remember it's just a matchup segment. I just asked you about the biggest matchups in this game and who you think has the advantages.

13:26We'll take a look around the league and do our NFL picks. We will also, of course, give our prediction for how Sunday plays out at Acresure Stadium, 1 p.m. for these Steelers and the Falcons. All that and more as we head into our number two, West Euler, Matt Williamson, it's the drive Steelers Nation Radio on the Steelers Audio Network. So we heard Amanda is off to school. Yeah, big step, more independent. She's not going to call every week asking for more money for books. Is she with smart start banking from S&T bank. She gets budgeting tools, scholarship opportunities, and consent money using Zell. Wow. I guess college is about getting smarter, right? Give them financial independence and yourself peace of mind. Stop by your local branch, call 835 2265 or visit STbank.com to send money with Zell. Both parties must have an eligible checking or savings account terms and conditions to apply S&T bank member FDIC.