Dream Podcast - NFL Futures + CFB Best Bets & More !!

0:00Whatever I've been seeing, I'm staying seeing, I'm staying seeing. Hey guys, this is RJ Tapent Thursday night, Friday morning release. This is kind of a show in between. There's no preseason. Next week we're going to be doing obviously week one picks. We probably might probably will do a season long show, meaning a season long prediction on over-unders. I know you guys love those. I do too. And I'm joined this week just like last week by Moonoff. Hey, Moonoff, how you doing? I'm doing well. I guess I did something right last week, RJ, for you to have me back on the dream pod, but no, I appreciate you. No, not really. No, no, no, I just didn't make some calls. I should have made a couple days ago. I made this morning. So next week, well, listen, the thing about Moonoff is he's smooth. So he probably has a role helping us, you know, he's leading the games, giving some props, but you have too many overs. You got a D minus. Oh, yeah.

1:00It's still passing in these days here at D minus. So I'll take you every day of the week. But no, excited for the season like you mentioned. We're about less than a week away from the NFL season. So hopefully we have a great pod here. Hopefully we find some more winners here, RJ. Absolutely. I cast one, my one pick that was played already. And then I have a few pre-season. Well, I mean, when you only can have one saddle, the best you can do is win. That's what I did. Absolutely. I mean, let's leave you. I got to tell you, you might not like this, but you're going to have to get, you're going to be getting with GPT, and we're going to be doing a pick by pick accounting of last season. I asked you for that right after before the Super Bowl. You go, oh, I'd have to listen to all the pot. Now you got GPT to do it. Just have them run through the transcript and just say, whenever RJ makes a bet. Yeah, I tried that. You're going to have to try harder, batter. What would the marine, I mean, you're a marine. What does the marine do?

2:00Say, oh, I can't do it. What does he do it? No, we just tried your head and we, we report when it's mentioned accomplished. Well, that's a bad phrase after I ran after a bush landing the plane. Right? Remember that one at the big banner mission accomplished. All right. So what do we got today? We're going to have a big, I'm pretty big discussion about season long props. The beauty of that is this is a time to consider them. Obviously, before the season starts in the NFL, I've got one that's an alternative line that I like a good bit. And you know, if I have, how many of you have three or so? I got two. I mean, the one that you're going to talk about, I think that'll, that'll be a good discussion as well that I like as well. So I think we could give three between the two of us. I don't sleep. He has any, but I think that'll be a pretty good discussion, RJ. So did you hear that? He was just because he mentioned it first. He said, like, we don't even get to the pick.

3:01Like, what's we got to the pick? If you wanted to say, you know what? I actually like this, everyone. And RJ kind of long gone. That's fine. But like, that's not happening for like 40 minutes. And he's like, even before they know what game or pick it is, it's going to be like, when RJ talks about his pick, you out, I should know that he actually listened to me and said, oh, I like that too. Well, after all the numbers that you said I gave out last week, we agreed on this one here. So it's a little teaser for the listeners. Yeah, we did agree, but you didn't have to make a big thing about that. It was like, you sourced it. I mean, sleep. What do you think? He's a professional pick. Is he really a professional pick pocket? I like that. If that's true, that he actually gets a C-Mine for last week. I love any gambling book. I truly think I have the second biggest sports betting collection out there. But mine's not publicly available, but I've got hundreds of books. And I spent, you know, probably 50, 70 K, just 10 bucks at a time on all these books.

4:01And one of them is, it's actually a book that is all about pick pocket culture and specifically how they would like plight or trade at carnivals and circuses. You know, back in the, you know, with the hillbillies, when they can't, you know, back in the, you know, this probably would have been from like 1920 or so that era. You know, but you think about it. That's probably where you got pick pocketed. But do you have the personal book? From Donahay? Yeah. I mean, I have a book that I'm going to read. From Donahay? Yeah. I mean, I, I, I, I controlled that story. I did do a lot with that story, but I did read that book, yes. Oh, I was going to if you wanted your collection, I have it. Was the a pick, was the a pick pocket? You'll have to read the book again to find out. You know, I did a podcast with him right after he started doing podcast. And it was so funny when we hung up the phone. Like before we went on, he's like, you know, you caused me so much trouble. And it was like, dude, it was all true because I know, but I don't know.

5:04I don't know. He doesn't seem like, I don't know. He doesn't seem like a class act too much. But anyway, I never told this story before, but I grew up an hour from Pittsburgh. And I was a Pirates fan as a kid. In 79, I was like eight years old so they won. That was huge. And it would have been maybe right before that or maybe right after. I was either seven, eight or nine. I was taken up to Pittsburgh by a neighbor dad, you know, me and his boy were friends. And I got taken up to three rivers at the time. And listen, I had, the town I lived in had 4,000 people. I was seven eight or nine. I was not, let's say, urban. I wasn't a worldly seven year old. I was kind of naive, you could say. I mean, that change pretty fast, but in fact, this is the start of the change. So I go up and, you know, my dad would call my owner, but, you know, call my owner's made decent money. So it wasn't like, you know, my mom would be pretty generous. She was a school teacher.

6:04And we had, you know, my dad wouldn't build the house unless it was paid for. He didn't want to, he didn't want a mortgage. So literally him and my grandfather would build it until they ran out of money. Then it would sit there for three months. They'd start building it again, took them like three years, but still they did it themselves. No mortgage. So now he's making pretty good money and he worked overtime like crazy. I mean, like he would work six days a week, 10 hours a day. And then, yeah. But so anyway, so I probably had 20 bucks in my pocket. So I had a little bit of money and I saw this beautiful, parched batting glove. And I played baseball by the farm. My favorite sport is a kid. Now I like, and I felt a lot better. But, you know, as a player, I was best at baseball. And so I thought, oh, batting glove looks cool. So I bought it. It might have been eight or ten bucks. I don't know. I can't remember. And so I'm walking and this kid comes up to me. So I'm alone at this point. This kid comes up to me and it was him. And he had a friend that was on a periphery.

7:05I didn't really know what to think about. He goes, oh, he goes, that's a cool looking bag of guys. See it? And I go, okay. Do, do, do, do. And I take off the bag of hand it to him. And he goes, oh, he kicks me in a shin. And then he passes it to his buddy and his buddy runs off. And I didn't have a batting glove. And that's when I learned how ruthless the world can be. And if you show any vulnerability, they're going to take it. They're going to take something from you. Is there a boost in that? Is there a boost in that? No, no, no, I don't think you've heard the show before. I talked truth. I don't tell blah. I don't tell like extravagant stories. You think of a shinn or a bruise shin last for 40 years? I mean, I'm just over more. Yeah, they're trying to be funny. It's isn't about fun. It's about facing the world as it is on its terms. When was your innocence taken away? I would have to.

8:05I'm not that probably a story for next week. Sleep, when was your innocence taken away? I don't think it ever was. You're dealing with me all these years. It had to be. I don't even like when someone comes to me innocent. Because it's like, I don't need to do this again. You think I would have fought the kid right there. But he was older. What was I going to do? How was I going to win that fight? What was I going to do? The glove was gone. All right, moving on. That's pretty good. It says batting glove right here. That's interesting. Let's do the NBA first. Then we can get out of the way. It's a little change up. Yeah, so I mean, this was something that was ongoing in the off season with the Clippers. Steve Balmer and, as you mentioned, Whitewood Kwai Leonard and how a reporter. I mean, this has been over a year that this was rumored, right? Yeah, and it was gaining steam in the off season, right?

9:06Between Kwai Leonard and Steve Balmer and the Clippers. The gist of it, obviously, people know was were they circumventing the salary cap, meaning that, hey, were there sponsors for the Clippers? A fictitious? The question is, were they paying them money under the table? I think 100% they were. Yeah, but what I'm saying is that was the accusation. Right. Yeah. That's what led to obviously the investigation and all that happening. Right now, people are saying that this is the, and I agree with it. And we'll talk about, you know, what you guys think and what what's leaving things as well, that this was the most historic, unprecedented punishment against the LA Clippers in the history of the NBA, right? There's been a lot of scandals that have happened, but what they lost is first, they lost five first round draft picks, and then they, from next season, beyond for the first five or for the next five years, they gave a $30 million fine to the owner of the Clippers Steve Balmer and also a one-year suspension for owner's Steve Balmer.

10:11I don't know what that means for Steve Balmer as the owner as a one-year suspension for him. Well, Tom Brenner would, Tom Brenner had been suspended. We've seen this before. Usually, if you can't interact with the team, then you can't be at the games, I think. Yeah, so we won't see him acting like a crazy person on the, on the right under the basket there when his team is either winning or getting killed during a regular season game, or even if they do make the playoffs going forward. But I think you mentioned Kauai Leonard, right? It gets your thoughts here, RJ, that I think he got off the easiest, right? Because there was a trade pending before all of this, you know, gain steam as far as the investigation goes out. He had already been traded to the Toronto Raptors and the league wanted and the Toronto Raptors and the Clippers, or they wanted this report and this investigation to be completed for that trade to happen because there was a lot of, I guess there was a pause in the off season and the dominoes weren't falling until this trade was completed and this investigation happening.

11:12But fast. So the trade, the trade to Toronto is official and complete, right? Yeah, nowadays after everything that just did come out, right? Now he, Kauai Leonard put out a statement on social media that, you know, he's looking forward to his time in Toronto. So now that means that this trade has been completed that he's going to start his next chapter in Toronto here. So both Simmons who is an MBA expert in my opinion, I know he's got his detractors, but he knows the NBA. His thinking is it's not a coincidence that Toronto who you can make the case, who's the aggrieved parties. And if Kauai, or let's not say if, since Kauai got paid under the table, who's aggrieved? It's going to be the other teams competing to sign him. Right? Well, since he was on Toronto, the most aggrieved party is going to be the team he was taken from by the illegal compensation. So it's kind of interesting somehow it went back to that team to say like, yeah, you lost some years, but you got him back.

12:15Yeah, I think that's an interesting point. Yeah, you got to wonder if the NBA kind of coerced that. They wanted that outcome because it does feel like all the well that ends well. It's easy to kind of put that on, you know, the end of the story. Yeah, and I think you would want to think this why would a player of Kauai's caliber want to be in Toronto where it's like, if I told you are Toronto rappers, you're not thinking of them as a as an NBA. I don't see you're not thinking that's NBA team, but that's not a destination that may be a guy like Kauai, let her want to go to because he's an L.A. guy. He had it made in L.A., right? Family, other businesses, all that, you know, for for Kauai, like that was going to be his final destination as far as his NBA career. But now he goes back to a team where he did win an NBA championship for years ago. But why would you not want to go to maybe another team that's a big market? Maybe it was like Miami or whether it was, you know, Philadelphia or he was traded, right?

13:15Yeah, he was traded. So like you mentioned, right? So maybe it was the NBA saying, hey, move them into or move them, trade them to Toronto. And maybe there's some more story behind why he's ending up in Toronto versus another big market team. And this is on me thinking out loud, RJ. I don't know how much control he has. Though in the NBA, if a superstar doesn't want to go somewhere, they usually don't trade America's receiving. King doesn't want that trouble. He doesn't want to buy an asset that's not going to be happy. Yes. Let me ask you a question. I don't know how would you, are you like a particularly religious person? Like are you the type in college you were trying to get laid? Sure. Sure. I mean, some people aren't, some guys aren't. Some guys are home and they're. No, no, no, no, that, that, I was not religious in college. I'll say that much. You're on the scene is what you're you were on the scene. Yes. Okay. So I don't know if you've ever had this experience. I'm pretty sure sleepy has. But there's, if you're running around, there might be this one town that you went to one time and were there for like two days.

14:22And you scored. And then always you're going to think that town. I've been in certain towns for two years and then scored that was in that town for 14 hours and it's like guys are always going to think about the fondly of that town. See I know. Here's my salute point. That's pretty good. But so you understood what I was saying right away, Slate. 100% yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I quite got to feel that way professionally about Toronto. He pops it in for three months and went to title. You got to have fun feelings about it. Drake may have something to do with that. The rapper. Oh, no, I just think I'll be honest. I just think Canadian girls are hot. I haven't had that experience. No, I they're too nice. All right. They got innocence to take anyway. It is it does seem like players are true. I mean in a way it's like why was truly like a child. It's like, oh, you can't blame him. His dad did it.

15:28It's like, I don't know. It seems like that we're so hypocritical about if you do something that they really don't like. You make one bad on one game. Not nothing your own game. Right. Just you know, you bet college football once you're in the NFL. And it's like, okay, one year suspension. But then someone can like the whole premise of the NBA is the salary cap. That that's the way that creates fairness amongst the teams. And it completely circumvent that the funny thing is if it wasn't for this cheating. Okay, see wouldn't be okay. See because remember it was it was a George Paul George Paul George is where quiet said, you know, I want him to come along pay. So Casey a bunch of pigs. They said yes sir and in your your illegal payments will be here by Monday morning. And somehow he doesn't get any trouble though I did hear that there's an uncle someone. Maybe Uncle Rico or something that was one supposedly coordinate in all the illegality. Did they get into that? Like who who was like the point man on choir's team.

16:36That's exactly what you mentioned. It's really the uncle that seemed like he's getting the. The blind. Yeah, getting the blame over what you know, why we're quiet. Just had to pay seven hundred thousand dollar fine. You know, he's free to go to Toronto and you know, be over there. And get laid all we want. Yeah, absolutely. There's a hot season in Canada. All right. So NBA stuff. We got a little break from it. So, but this was a big, big, big, big story. I tell you if you're Steve bomber and you got whatever 30 billion, 40 billion billion, the only time on earth you're going to get told what to do is if you really break the long year in prison. And you can say all they're going to get easy prison. Yeah, they might they might not be fighting for their lives, but they're still going to be in a place where the. This guard is going to tell him, girl, if you're light, I mean, it's like that's the one, the one or two times you're going to get told what to do with 30 billion is that or if you get into a sports league and let the commission get to boss your hand. A bomber doesn't get to go to his own games. That's. I mean, I'm not saying that's wrong. I'm just saying it's going to be tough to swallow.

17:43I believe he also owns the building that they they plan. Well, it's like it's like you're talking about like in casino where where patchy goes, but let's save. I'm in the black book, but there's a sandwich I like particularly well. It's like, what does that mean? You don't do you still can't go. Yeah, into a dome. Yeah, it's owned by a billionaire and former Microsoft CEO Steve bomber. There you go. Yeah, which I mean, he spent like seven years or whatever going on thing and suppose I haven't been there, but supposedly it's the best arena and the NBA. No, this NBA team shows up in Vegas. I think I'm I've never gotten season tickets anywhere ever. I'm never even considered it, but I think if the NBA is like 10 minutes down the street. And I know it's expensive, but they imagine you can sell off most your tickets. I think it make money on it. That's what Simmons says about it. He has clippers tickets, but then just once a year you see all the talk. Let's say you pick your top 20 and you see those 20 games when they come to town.

18:44I mean, imagine doing that in the 90s. Wherever you have to Toronto doesn't matter and any would come and see when shack was in town when Jordan was in you know that we don't have that level now necessarily mean especially Jordan, but. Wouldn't that be cool? Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I'm not a big attend the game. I've only seen this is the truth. I've only been like a dozen football games and every one of them is either a Super Bowl or a national championship game. Like I would just get you know my good buddy is an administrator in college now and you know we could all and he knew the stupes is really well he knows and I guess knows and not knew. And so anytime Oklahoma was an entitled game we'd go and it was cool, but it was like I probably had the most bougie or highfalutin or whatever you want to call it discriminating pacing games. Okay, let's get to the NFL stuff. This is my choice to have this discussion because I think it's a fascinating one.

19:44So we looked at all the successful not successful but important quarterbacks first rounders. Taken in the last three drafts not counting the most recent draft because they haven't played yet. So here's the list. Cam Ward, Will Kekele Williams, Rice Young, Jackson Dart, DJ Stroud, Richardson from the Colts, Bonix, McCarthy from the Vikings, JJ, Panics from Atlanta, Daniels from Washington and Drake May. There's a lot of big names there. Now I think there's four of them that are clear bus with one of them. You could question it but the buses I see are Rice Young. I mean I'm not saying it's in pause. I mean look look look look what happened with Sam Darnel you never know. Panics again that is just one injury but since he had so many injuries before you can't be happy with him right now. McCarthy for sure and Richardson to that leaves Nick Stroud, Dart, Williams Ward, Daniels, May.

20:53I would make the case that at one point during their career that Kayle Williams was considered the best amongst all these. Now I would say that was right before this is first game. If they redrafted that year he would have went one he went one he was like as good as that or I'm sorry as good as Andrew Luck was the talk. JJ Stroud after his rookie year was considered one of the potentially one of the best rookie years we ever saw. I don't know about potential that's not the way to say but Stroud was certainly at the top of the heap. He's not there now. Drake May off a super bowl. He might be the number one pig now amongst these. It just was fascinating to me the idea of how the stock has gone up and down so drastically with some of these players. Stroud might not get his contract right. So he said and this is from obviously me being a Texans fan is that the Texans offered him 50 million per year but he's quote on quote betting on himself and once again north of 60 million.

21:59So I mean again it's easy to say that I mean do we really think that the Texans think I mean 50 million would put him where like the eighth or tenth highest pay quarterback or maybe maybe a little better six or seven. So my point is I think that's a little hot I mean saying Stroud is about the eighth best quarterback and we're going to pay him that way that doesn't feel right to me. That feels like that's Stroud talking but so let's ask this question is right now right now the 10th or third 2026 is if you were the GM of a team and we were doing a draft a real draft and you can have any of these quarterbacks. So you keep in mind their health you keep in mind how good they are you keep in mind their youth how young they are how old they are whatever and panic obviously older amongst these guys. Who would you pick one. I hate to think the cop out answer right what you just mentioned I think it is drake may for me right just because I am not because it's

23:03because it's recent by the way we get came off of the Super Bowl right but when you're attacking your quarterbacks it's going to have to be some reason to you right yeah. We've only got two years to look at it. Yeah and also you take a look at last year with drake may I mean they didn't have a clear cut number one type of wide receiver on that roster and what he was able to do and take this Patriots team back to the Super Bowl after all the years with Tom Brady and now they've added weapons so we do they added a J brown from the Philadelphia Eagles in that trade and I showed up the offensive line so I mean from these guys I think it's for me it's one A and one B between Drake May and and Jaden Daniels and Daniels you put second I would put Daniels second yeah I know you have the injury last year but he also had. So you want Daniels fragile Daniels let's call him let's call him Mister Glass over Caleb Williams I would think so yeah. I mean I was not a Caleb Williams fan coming in right in general I don't like my football players the color their nails but I mean I'm not judging it's not

24:13nothing's wrong with it's just I don't want my quarterback with you know like turquoise nails I also don't I mean again he's a product of his age meaning this year or not his age 20 whatever but it's like it'd be hard to come up and not be obsessed with social media not not be obsessed with self image but like anyone that didn't come up during this time of social media they're going to judge it right yeah so it kind of makes sense but Williams just seems so so not self aware but aware of how he's going to look by the iPhones around them but it's hard to blame them so I don't know but I know that those guys don't typically win but soon enough they're going to be the only kind of guys there are probably so in the NFL but who knows what's going to change before that they'll be it's always funny when someone's 21 I still remember there was a movie called pump up the volume I don't know if anyone seen it but Christian Slater was in it and he was like this rabbi and he was like this rabbi that came to this town and he started broadcasting radio from his basement this before the internet so the whole town was a buzz with who's this guy you know and he was a high school kid like a senior in high school and one of the lines he said was he said that the youth is changing so fast evolving that within three years of graduating high school you're going to have no idea what's going on with high school seniors

25:39and this is back like 89 as movie came out while I was like you know high school senior at that point and I'm like no fucking way I'm going to always understand I think I you know I know I do you know I remember I was at the orange ball with I went there in 2010 and my body got me arrived at the airport on the team you have these team shuttles so like me and maybe four or five other players and it again this is three times more than I was going to do it. I was three or four generations ago meaning you know but I was you know they were on their phones they were you know whatever they were doing the way they were talking I just thought I don't know idea what's going on I mean it's like this is so not me right which makes sense right because I would have been you know in my late 30s at the time but it was like to think of how fat and that's been so many generations and then it's the iteration like the people who are seniors now like the 13 year old say they don't understand anything they can remember before 20 years old.

26:39I'm not a Twitter or before Facebook or before you know whatever Instagram is part of what but it's like the idea that that's a distinction that you can remember a time before the iPhone and it's like yet kind of makes sense right and now AI is going to change so much anyone that will be a cognizant after before AI came along is going to be be a lot of things and then there's going to be a key distinction. I was going to mention the CJ Strodd I just was able to pull that up at 50 million he would be the 13th ranked or highest paid quarterback right in front of the Sean Watson. That's crazy I still remember when I was you know do straight out of Vegas I was like in the stories every day all day and it was like DAC in his contract and the big debate was he would have signed for like 26 million a year. Then he was that contract I think you know I'm signing for 33 and it was a huge deal and now it's like you almost almost double that and it's been like five years.

27:5160 million a year for your DAC press got second highest paid quarterback. How much is he now year 60 million patch my homes is a high set 64. So you're saying the difference between CJ stride at my homes is 14 at the best 14 million could I respond. No I'm sorry it's so patch my homes is 64 million annual average yearly and then I was 50. Stride yeah 50 yeah. 13 or four supposedly allegedly I'm sorry I thought you don't want that but yeah yeah CJ would be yeah they would be 14 million a part per year. To me that's the one the jumps I could use who's number one for me I don't want to I mean I might go to make my truth myself to be honest because I use the thing we haven't seen anything really bad I'm not saying one moment or one throw but there hasn't really been an era that we thought. Drake may man he doesn't look too good there hasn't even been a month I think that was working here wasn't perfect but it strikes me that the one guy that doesn't if you said a month by month grade.

28:59The Drake may probably has the highest lowest grade whatever lowest grade Drake may has in a given month I don't think anyone else has a bad grade that high or the worst grade that high. I mean here is they've had real down. But yeah but it mixes the one you got a question because on one hand his performance is the best I think we're right up there but his physical limitations to start with. In a way you don't want to say he's the guy in fact he would I wouldn't be he wouldn't be the guy I think it would be Drake may then I think it be Williams as much as I hate him at least I could hatch. That'd be my two and can't words probably getting not enough credit here because he had that rookie out that rookie trend line that looks good I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised if he has a mark like a drag made type second season but let's not forget drag may had the easiest schedule maybe in the history of the NFL. Even in the playoffs.

30:00Yeah and can board now has Brian table as the offensive coordinator there right we saw what he was able to do with Josh Allen and you know Jackson Dard had moments. I also thought what he was able to do I also saw what he was able to do without the quarterbacks to yeah so and again. Yeah and and last year right can board in this rookie year he was just kind of throwing to the fire where we knew it was going to be a transition year because that coaching staff was. More than likely we knew they were going to be gone they're also moving into a new stadium and all that and now they I guess now he has some stability with brand new offensive system and offensive coordinator in a new head coach. So I'm going to go Drake may Williams ward and bone next that is my top four. Do you think bone X is a product of Sean Payton system. Well here's what I know. Though he had decent years when when when you know the last the last couple years of his career drew brief got hurt a lot he had four six games you know hurt hand had a lot of those yeah and Teddy bridge water came in and did decent but like bone next is doing better than any of those backups.

31:14That that that had multiple games so to some degree I think that the style is better than them so far I think he's not true breeze obviously right but if he was it paint was so good that he could lift up whatever quarterback how the hell was he one year without a job. You think he'd be one of the top five most wanted coaches in the league which I think right now he probably is but he wasn't after the same. Now and yeah I had taken what season off was it to see so as you mentioned before we want to get in there yeah. Well here's the thing people forget this I mean they call memory holding certain things but the same had two years they could easily won the sewer ball and maybe two is a little too much I mean they had the championship game I think it was against the Rams and was all kind of passing or parents calls. But the one that really strikes me is when Tom Brady won his first year this one to change NFL history the first game was against the Saints Saints were up to 10 nothing and it was a second quarter they threw a pass to the tight end tight end broke free down the seam was like at the 22 yard line got stripped and and and Tampa cover you know they get a few goal even or 13 nothing.

32:26I mean I'm not saying they can't lose but it's like they were close to breaking that game open and then Tom Brady doesn't win a super ball then if you either two seasons that happened after that the Tampa Brady post new England would look like shit because it really wasn't good the last year it was decent the middle year. But it's kind of funny how like the greatest of all time ultimately is going to come down to what he did in Tampa because it was amazing to just leave there when a super ball. But that was a coin flip yeah I'd agree. See who would you who would be your number one pick amongst those those three classes of quarterbacks. Caleb Williams first I'd go Drake makes second and then I would take Jackson dark third Jackson dark. You like turquoise you like turquoise now polish the best or pink. I'm going to go with hot pink.

33:26But that's what not. Here is a good segue for us our next topic is going to be an FL season win total or season props season long props how many yard sounds I was going to have etc and one of the guys we were looking for. Jack from dark his over under was like 3100 yards I think it was and I kind of like the under a little bit there I just think that he could easily get hurt he run but I also think this ever since Jackson dark got hurt like maybe game 11 I'm thinking he wasn't running very much like it was like coming from the top don't let him run too much. I always get a heat for that so to me I would make the case he's trying to get in her is higher than we might think because he was playing restrained dark was but I also think it's ability to perform and because you remember when you can run it opens up the passing so much. And maybe they have I might look at Jackson dark the first game of the year like looking for over under combined rushing and passing or something because I got a feeling when he's unleashed.

34:34It's going to be better than we think yeah I think so you also go back quickly here are you like to into the year last you saw right the football right there was the final four weeks where he did or the final four games and he did play. 63 rushing yards against the Washington commanders get what I want to hear is a tap I want to hear his attempt. Oh, he has a five in a 30 30 yard run you know he might have 40 or 35 but still you know so how many times did he have in these games so nine against the commanders he had to yeah to against the Vikings and the final two months nine against the Raiders in Vegas. And then he had five against the Dallas Cowboys in the final game of the regular season. Okay, I would make the case you're right that that's more than I would have expected what about the four games before that. So prior to that against the Patriots for against the bears six against the Niners eight and then against the Eagles six. Okay, that's not nothing I'll be interested in my year on this year because because even if he did I'm because the story was they they couldn't restrain him maybe he runs 15 times maybe just go over his fucking attempts in week one.

35:43Yeah, yeah total of 86 attempts last year. And all right, so you're going to give your first pick. That don't make it the one that you and I agree on that you originated but give us another one. Yeah, so we just talked about Caleb Williams right let's let's you know talk about Caleb Williams and and his passing yards for this upcoming season 3000. Oh, let me get the updated number here. Yeah, 3600 and a half currently over on bet MGM and this goes back RJ to what Ben Johnson had mentioned in one of his conferences with the media and I'll read this verbatim and what he said as a quote. He said I want to be the highest scoring offense ever which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos I know how many points per game they scored 37.9 and I want to surpass them I want shutouts and I won't blow out so when it comes from a head coach like that and we've seen what Ben Johnson was able to do with the Detroit lines when he was there as the offensive coordinator with you know Jared golf and the weapons that they did have I mean that was a very high scoring offense.

36:56This first year last year you know coming into the Chicago Bears as a head coach getting the players that he wants to run his offensive system it takes a year to do that but I think he has his guys now on this offense where he can go out and set this bar and go out and possibly again break that record of averaging 38 points per game and how do you do that you have to continue throwing the football in those games where more so we see in the NFL that if a team is up by two touchdowns. Layton the game with five minutes of performance left they're trying to run out the clock that run the football trying to get the first downs and run out the clock but there could be a situation I think there will be a situation this upcoming season where they're going to continue throwing the football if they want to get that record and we take a look last year RJ with Caleb Williams the first year underbed Johnson as he had coach and what he did offensively throwing the football in his second year. He threw for 3,942 yards last year so based off of this projection he threw 342 more yards he did play in all 17 games in his rookie year and also last year RJ but I do like Caleb Williams on his over passing yards for the season 3,600 and a half so we want him to get 3601 by the time the season is over RJ.

38:16The quote to me is very powerful because it shows two things it shows optimism and it shows intention so if you don't think you have a hell of an offense you're not going to say anything like that because you can imagine if you had a blow average offense now how much that's going to get made fun of you know by who knows you know the press whatever. But also is saying I'm thinking about that when I was a kid the coaches never did that so we'd be like don't you know the Walter Payton had this and they don't they were just about winning here is a lot about media attention is about social media but again these guys we're talking about it for a reason but I think he's going to back it up so if you even have a little bit more inclination to throw in the fourth quarter when you're winning that's really going to add to your yardage you add up the fact the second year for an elite coordinator as you said is usually. So I think it's one of my favorite overs I'm not picking back it because you'll be talking about it for the next month but I like it.

39:20I'll mention one more note here there are already dealing with injuries in their backfield with both calm and fungi and deandre swift so something to keep an eye on if that running game isn't effective for them. So I think that we can get off to a really good start here with Caleb Williams on his over passing yard so that that was one that I really do like for the upcoming season. Right enough when it wins you can do a celebration but you know you just made the big that's good next big let's go to the Arizona Cardinals side of things here Jeremiah love their rookie running back that they drafted third overall this past draft I like the under on his rushing yards for the upcoming year the exact number right now. 774 and a half you can find that currently over on draft Kings and I was I want to say I was surprised but also not surprised at this pick here because let's start number one in the backfield of the Arizona you surprised yourself. No I think you were right and it says under love I can't believe I wrote that no I'm in by the draft pick by the Cardinals of Jeremiah.

40:25Oh okay okay just because again let's let's take a look at their backfield right they so they signed Tyler Alger from the Atlanta Falcons last year who was behind beach on Robinson they also do have James Conner that's coming off of the I.R. this upcoming year they resigned for the former stealer so I thought again that would be a log jam there in the backfield for Jeremiah love for the upcoming season and he's already R.J. D. Come on you're saying the highest you're saying the highest pick of a running back and what when was the last time it was it was it. Say Kwan I mean who's the last guy that went this high. Oh Jay Simpson I think sake one win like I think they call it third right yeah to the giant yeah. I love love when third overall as well to the to the Cardinals okay he's also one of two people the last 20 years yeah and he's already dealing with an angle injury here and I think they're going to be a little bit more cautious with him to start the season we mentioned this last week with their win total sitting at what three and a half for the upcoming season there are more than likely going to be trailing let's say by the end of the first quarter of midway through the second quarter by two possession that.

41:44I understand they're going to be playing from behind yeah they're going to think I'd. Here's the thing I don't like and I like under so it's kind of funny this is the one under troubles me because I think what's going to happen and fantasy football talks about this I'm not an expert of fantasy at all but is if a guy the more draft capital a guy has the more chances they're going to give them right and I also think in this case remember Arizona was looking good when they made that trade with Houston and they got a number one and everyone said that he's. I was a worse trade ever one of the worst trades ever and it's like now you're stuck with your coaches gone and and your quarterback is gone no one's playing call of duty in town but and then you go on and then you expose yourself you're vulnerable to criticism now taking a running back so high right there's an old thing you don't get fired for buying IBM meaning IBM might not have been the best but everyone could excuse you for buying. I'm sure you buy an IBM so if the computer screwed up it wasn't necessarily your fault but if you buy some real small company that's just you know started now it's your fall well the Arizona done something that makes them vulnerable if they have any chance to keep the pat his dad to make sure at the end of the year the whole off season they're not talking about him only having 600 yards I think they're going to do it I'm not saying that's enough to make your big bad but that is a factor I think for sure they're going to try to say face make sure he gets in yards.

43:11But do we think that they would not want to risk any serious entry to him and save him for next year or do they're more worried about getting fired. They fired people after one year all the time yeah they'll make sense yeah remember Arizona's the one I had to got fired like in the middle of this first year then he and I've gone to care I think he was he was what was that guy then he was the um the interim head coach for Carolina for a while. Was Steve looks yeah yeah he might have been the worst coach he might have the worst performance ever he was horrible with with with Arizona yeah but they had the worst off answers like anyway I guess what I'm saying is it's not like you get a gentleman three years anymore right yeah that's fair and I think that's an any sport as well I mean you could talk about the NBA as well. Steelers just had their like four years ago I think their the Jones project Jones was their number one pick he just got traded for seven rounder maybe it's kind of clear little house in Pittsburgh on mark on I mean Lord is that's been bad all right anyway um at one point I'll have a rant about the McCarthy higher it's the worst

44:19higher ever not so much that you this years I won't get into it's not that I think they're going to have a horrible year this year but they tend. Alright so why don't you give us your originated pick and then I'll I'll just go on at the end. No I'll give you those honors I'll let you have it. No no please if it was important enough for you to mention early you should just follow through with it. So I'll give it out and then obviously you chime in here so Matthew Stafford on his passing yards this season to go under the number that right now the best number you can get currently over on draft Kings is also sitting at 3,899 in a half so essentially 39 100 yards for the upcoming season. So as we were talking about in pre-production here RJ is number one 38 years old coming off an MVP year where I I expect regression with Matthew Stafford and you take a look at it right you you traded for miles Garrett from the Cleveland Browns and then about what just last week we were talking about it when

45:22rosters are finalized here comes Aaron Donald right now you have two of these monsters on your defensive line that I believe when we saw that Matthew Stafford came over to the Rams we saw a lot of high scoring games right just because the defense was not very good for this Rams team after Aaron Donald retired for those couple of years so they were in high scoring games for a playing from behind we saw it last year now you get Aaron Donald back now you add a guy like miles Gary to that defensive line you're going to be up multiple possessions in the fourth quarter there's no incentive for Matthew Stafford to be throwing the football at that point. So I know you'll you'll you'll mention your point as well as which I 100% agree with as well. Imagine this leave you imagine this he's not only talking about how it's his pick he's somehow give a pitty shitty version of my analysis and you know what are you going to tell you hear in a minute is no no you handle yours I'll handle. No you're going to pause it up but those are the two main points that I had regression for coming off the good points.

46:24Yeah our our very good boy 38 years old and also you have a defensive line with miles Garrett with Aaron Domba should dominate and you're not going to be having to play from behind we're back to staffers after throw the football all the floor or sorry over the field and rack up the yards again there so how many yards is that for it have last year. I know he was so we'll see how it compares because that's going to be a high end year for sure so tell me when you got it 4,737. Oh my God so you can throw for 800 last yards and still go over. Wow. Yeah and you know the whole 17 games last year as well. Yeah which is my main point if you think about what are the scenarios that you win this battle in the under some of it's going to be not trailing much not throwing as much. I agree with that some of it might be hey he had a monster year last year is not near as good. I think one of the biggest pieces of this puzzle or potential puzzle is injury and remember last year there was real uncertainty that he was even going to play.

47:31I mean like his back was hurting. To me now correct me from wrong that the ranch made a big pick on a quarterback right in the draft first round yeah they took 12th overall size Simpson out of Alabama I believe sleepy correct me from wrong on that college there. So I would make the case that they're not going to hope staffers hurt obviously but if he's paying up and it's week eight I think they they they take it especially if they're winning a lot and it looks like they have a you know glide path to the playoffs. Those Seattle and then for the division probably will be competitive you think is I can see a scenario that he sit out a few games for little banged up raced whatever not really ratchy they won't say that but that's kind of what it is. The real injury he I mean braces collarbone is out for 10 weeks whatever whatever I think that's a big piece of the puzzle or potential puzzle so now the question becomes if he does get injured when is he get injured. Now I would make the case though later in the year there's a little bit more of a chance just because you're you're run down in general you think it's pretty close to a you place 15 games you have one 15 chance to be an injured in the first game second game third game it's going to be about this you know spread evenly.

48:41So now the average point he would get injured then would be week eight or nine under that theory and if he gets injured early it will be weeks before that late weeks after that but how many weeks after that does it take every game is going to be 300 in some yards in theory. Well the numbers as we saw them was you had your number give that again. 3,899.5 so 3,900 was rounded up. Okay so we were looking at alternative lines so what I want to do is lower my my number and get plus money because if I'm going under I'm making a tougher by making you know if you got 3,900 and I take 3,700 or 3,800 I got it tougher so I should be getting plus my money so see what did we see is the I think we saw plus 200 right at what number. I think it was 3500 wasn't it so it's plus 200 under 3500. Okay 3500 so we're giving up 3,900 3500 we're giving up 400 yards so we're talking about a game in a half so if this thing would just go under by a yard and he's not injured any game then we need him to be out like one and a half games for this to come in.

49:54In theory I mean doesn't go exactly like that so to me if I'm getting double the payout if I think of all the scenarios I don't think that it falls between 3500 and 3,900 all that often and I would like to get something like under 2,900 for like I came and guess what the amount would be but as long as I was getting a fair number I'd like to go under a thousand yards I don't think it's likely but you might get 10 to 1 or I don't know but I think that there's a real chance he gets hurt this year. Yeah they also would keep him out multiple games like they're not going to rush him back especially with his agent and then also let's not forget they're the super bowl favorite so yeah there are no reason to rush him back. Okay thanks for originating that though. You're welcome I'm here for it. Alright good stuff good stuff so you're get will repeat your picks. So we've got Caleb Williams to go over on his passing yards 3,650 in a half Jeremiah love rushing yards under 774 in a half and then of course the Matthew staffer won't we just discuss 3,899 in a half passing yards.

51:06Okay and I had the alternative line plus 200 under. See do me if they were looked at up I for some reason I don't think it was 35 I thought it was higher let's just check you want to double check that. No it's 35 on it I'm looking right at it is okay okay anytime I don't like a number I would think it's wrong you know what occasionally it is wrong you know that's what they say if you read any serious book or or let's say some old school advance books on things that can you beat crap right so if you use free odds and you're playing don't pass you get pretty close to like I think it's 0.3% hold. But then they say that it's actually profitable to how is if you watch when you get paid off and every time they make a mistake in your favor you just take it quick and don't say anything but whenever they make a mistake to your favor you mention it that actually can be worth like a third of it you know it can be worth some percentage of a point because you think in the long run they might make I don't know how many mistakes that's going to be more than 0. I like to think about all the points on the card and I get to go eat but you know it's another way let's go into best bats and I got two picks one to best bat and this is going to be college football think about that a second I actually have been doing a good bit of

52:22trying to work there. I mean if you give your first best bat and I'll follow or your best bet I'm sorry. My favorite one is the math staff everyone we talked about if you want to 1 B 1 that Caleb Williams over 3.3006. Okay. Okay. Okay. I love that one especially what we just talked about with Ben Johnson I don't really regurgitate everything but I love that Caleb Williams one as well. Please. All right. Good stuff. Let me give you that amount of the guy. Now I think that quotes one of the best things in the show so far. I might print that up here on the wall in the office here and then we could revisit. Exactly. I mean it just listen when you got specificity it makes things feel more tangible. All right. This is my pick. It's not the best bet and then we'll go right into my best bet college football and there's some trends out there that are about elite teams super elite well let's just say relatively elite so they're big favorites and this one is over a 35 point favor and we zero or one.

53:28And what you try to do is you try to find teams that are going to be focused the whole time and this is kind of like the NFL right where we had a long time we were saying if teams lay more in touchdown and the NFL playoffs. You want to look at them because doing the regular season if they're lay more of a touchdown they're not playing hard the whole game or they're sitting on the lead and the playoffs are just keep going and you see a lot of covers and you may think oh my god this is a playout team and they're getting 10 and a half it's a you know historically those big favorites have done well week one especially if it's at home. But I think in all cases everyone's been focused on that game for so long even if it's a big favor you're going to play hard the whole you're not going to play soft in the second half of the first game. So big favorites it makes sense that they're going to go win some more so where are the other scenarios well you have to have a total over 52. Okay and the reason is if you're laying a big number of points got to come quick and you know can't be a grind out game. And then what I did was and this is kind of original I went and said what was the over what was the results that the team did in the first game of the prior season.

54:37But I would say for the whole career they the coaches career how do they doing first games because every coach is different they balance check all started slow in the NFL. In fact in his whole career actually if you go from 2012 on I look at Bella checks first game is over under point total where his point total net of a T.S. is minus. So he's actually he's been under performed a week one and he's career over from 2012 on so I think how a team does well coach doesn't week one means a lot. And so I consider that and what we end up getting here was these teams that met this criteria are 48 winners against the spread and 29 losers 48 and 29 and that team is Tennessee minus 40 and a half that's a big number. But history says Tennessee is going to roll but come home well now that's taxes what's Tennessee said. Volunteers is it I don't know what they're slogan is rather than tell me.

55:41Okay okay I rocky top minus 40 and a half. Okay guys before the best bet I'm going to tell you about a special offer here and as we've been talking about college football is heating up this is the official week one coming up. And we've got a special offer because what we do typically is you can buy the football package at pregame.com and for that you get the college and the NFL combined at a big discount. But we know there's certain people that like college only other people like NFL only and then there's people that like both but know that so and so is really good at college not so good the NFL so might as well buy that only and that's why we have these college only packages. And right now we're at the brink of the or I want to call an early bird but it's right before the season and you're going to get there's all the discount out there anyway right it's down at a low price but you're going to get an extra 50 dollars off and you can get that 50 off with the coupon code CFB so that's college football CFB 50 for 50 dollars off.

56:45Now who's hot well let's look at it we've got on these are last season obviously and and we're looking at the whole season we're not saying all the last two weeks so and so no for example Spartan last season up 41 plus you more than 41 41 units. Who else play me. Stevie Steven over did really well last year he was up 15.42 units and I know that he already has his hair he got his big pickup for Saturday well that's what what's the name of the pick big 10 bookie basher. Alright I like basher the bookies and you hear 15 of the Dave Astler diamond Dave some call uncle Dave but he wins no matter what name he uses it's just his little nicknames when he's uncle Dave he's super nice he's helping everyone when he's diamond Dave he's looking to get edges when against you know whoever he's competing are just against the bookie but against the guy at 7 11 he used to I don't know Dave Astler you should own a bunch of 7 11 I think it was five or six in Florida huh it's all coming together now he used to water down his past his coke so coke zero so it wasn't so tasty but he figures hey I'm using a third left syrup I mean I think that's who diamond David's uncle Dave be like oh you want a free fraud you want a free flashy okay just sweep up out front I'll give you one

58:10you know that was uncle Dave he wasn't super nice but he wouldn't like short you on your syrup I think any place that charges like $3 for a coke and and they bring it to you and it's like flat you should go to jail I guess you just be 30 days in jail and we'll see if you do it again the thing I love is how McDonald's and I'm not even don't I'm a fan of their good business and the efficiencies but they actually did a scientific study to say most people drink their soda with this much ice melted and if we assume that much ice is melted what is the right amount of syrup to have the best taste right then and they did studies on that like there was rocket scientists that you can go redesign the space shuttle or figure out how much ice we should put in this coke coke cola that's a commitment to excellence I think the best coke a coke out there is what's that raising gains I'll tell you that's cute the best soda ever I had now we all most of us know about the Mexican soda that comes with full sugar it's not like fruit to taste or it's like the real sugar

59:21but then I got a mountain do from Mexico that was full sugar they're actually discontinued now it would I got it down to 33 degrees it was so good I'm never forget they say like if you shoot heroin you you never forget it you're always chasing that high well I from me that was mountain do fun max go 33 degrees 33 degrees right on point I will say there's a reason why people keep going back to McDonald's for their soda I'm not saying there's cocaine in it but I don't know well that I mean everyone knows the original coke cola it was cocaine in it and maybe that's what's McDonald's secret is somehow I feel your fork and I got energy give me some more that right on it grandfathered in so Dom and Dave how's he done over 20 units you think about it three someone has a three-star game of the month it's three units all right so that's a great win but it's three so when you got a guy like Spartan who's won many years in college football

1:00:24that's by far his favorite so I would say this by the bat one guy is gonna win in college football this year I'd probably say I put Spartan right there at the top I put Astler next maybe sleepy J third and all different you'll pay for me so I give you a piece of my mind okay now I bet that here's a scenario first I should tell you guys this is an over under and it's record is two overs and 29 under four pushes and it goes under by 9.3 points per game this is a monster we got three of them I'll give you all three but the one I'm gonna have as my best bet and it will be on the record it's gonna be Oklahoma State and Tulsa under in this case 59.5 so here's a scenario it's got to be game one and only game one

1:01:29all right and number two it has to be a fairly high total all right number three so it's three points over the league average from last season all right that's fairly high but not super high and it also needs to be that the over under margin for game one last year and you look at it from both teams needs to be over a plus number so they went over but these two teams went over the total in aggregate meaning if one team went over by 20 then other team went under by 15 still would be plus five and it would count and the line can't be extreme it needs to be less than minus 30 or bet or worse than plus 23 all right and that's it two and 29 and the three teams are oh some of these are not division one so I think this is Murray State why don't you guys look

1:02:31at Murray State plays middle Tennessee if that's right it is Murray State and the other one is I think Idaho State Utah State is playing Idaho State all right so that's what we do one and then it's Murray versus middle Tennessee I think yeah Murray State add middle Tennessee all right so that one's under two but again not on the record where I'll give you guys a little bonus okay we are going to be back next week probably two shows so here's what I need to say is subscribe if you have and it's free it helps us as they say with the algorithm but make sure you don't miss a show and I think it was a good one it was a good one except for I still think it's funny the thing that the the moon off is like when the show starts I actually figured out how to say what he said he was like hey guys guys I'm gonna say this real quick in about 40 minutes RJ's gonna have a pick but it's not here it's fine okay let's go that that was kind of crazy so I guess my grade this week will be F minus then no no no I thought you did well yeah I would

1:03:36say this you guys you got suspended for three days but you still got a beat I'll take it all right we'll be back and probably special guests next week as I figured this all out but the feedback from great I appreciate it talk to you then