Does Kolby Allard's return make the Guardians bullpen a crowded mess or a team strength?

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1:15Back to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. I'm Joe Nogat joined by Paul Hoynes. Hoynes, the guardians with a bit of a surprise move I guess yesterday came out of nowhere. Signing left hander Colby Allard to a minor lead contract and with an invitation to spring training brings the number of non roster invitees in camp up to 27. As Allard very familiar face to the guardians spent the basically the entire season with them last year. After they signed him on February 3rd of 2025. So almost a year to the day, they signed him again. They cut him loose November after the season but he made the club out of spring training, stayed with the the guardians through early July when they de-faid him in early July and then six days later he re-signed with the club and spent the remainder of the season with them. I had a pretty solid year out of the bullpen. In fact, Hoynes, do you know who was the third what pitcher posted the third highest

2:20war according to baseball reference on the guardians roster last year? I have no idea, Joe, but I think you're going to tell me. It was Colby Allard. He posted a 1.3 war according to baseball reference. That was just behind Joey Cantillo who was 1.4 and Gavin Williams who I believe was what 3.8 war. You think about that. With all the performances that they had last year, all the pitching turnarounds for some of the starters and you know Slates of Coney, Tanner Bobby. No, it was Colby Allard's 1.3 war that was third highest on the club. He went two and two with a 2.63 ERA 65 innings in 33 appearances and it was pretty solid. 42 strikeouts, 14 walks, five home runs allowed, but just a nice contributor, a good veteran presence in the clubhouse, a real good guy to talk with. What do you think of the news that they reassigned Colby Allard and that they're going to give him a chance to try and make the club again? Yeah, really happy for Colby, Joe. I thought he, as you said, I thought he played

3:24a huge role last year on that team, especially in the bullpen. He did everything they asked them to do. He made two spot starts. That great outing against Detroit late in the season after he sat for 14 days and people kept telling him, you're going to get in a game and when you get in a game, you're going to have to make, you're going to be fixed with making a huge out and he did against the Tigers in a big game in September. You know, it's a former number one pick of Atlanta and he's been around, he's done a bunch of roles and I think he's a great fit, Joe. Now all he has to do is make the club. That's going to be the top part. Yeah, we'll get into the numbers here, the sort of the numbers game about what it's going to mean to try and make the club as a left-handed reliever, this upcoming training camp. But I want to go back to that situation, that moment that you alluded to back on September 18th. If you remember September 18th, this was in the middle of the Guardians making that furious rally to come back.

4:29And this was the end of a three game series that, you know, going into it, everybody sort of circled and said, boy, if the Guardians can sweep this series, they've got a real shot at this thing. And I think this was sort of the moment where Detroit knew, hey, our grasp on first place in the American League Central is slowly actually quickly slipping away. It's tenuous at best because Colby Allard got out there, had a three-one lead. And he faced, it was Riley Greene in a big moment, a critical moment. This was the eighth inning, head three to one at Camarica Park. It's getaway day, afternoon game at Camarica. The Guardians have won the first two games of the series. And, you know, Allard hadn't pitched, like you said, in 14 days prior to that appearance. The real thing that stands out in my mind from that moment was, you know, Riley Greene basically was bad. It's lefty on lefty and Riley Greene in his all-star. It was battling him, pitched for pitch.

5:32It was an 11-pitch at bat. And finally, he struck him out. I believe he struck him out swinging, you know, showed some emotion, pumped his fists, you know, celebrated a little bit coming off the mound just in that moment. And, and Greene was so angry, he slammed his batting helmet and, you know, threw off his elbow protectors and all that. After the game, Steven Vogue, I remember him talking and just praising Allard. And calling it as he said, there were three of the biggest outs that they had gotten out of the bullpen in a long time. And, and like you said, somebody had been in, I believe it was, was a Greg Goldberg. It was a pitching coach had been in Allard's ear prior to that and told him, hey man, you know, you know, buy your time, hang in there during that 14-day stretch. He said, you were going to need you to come in and, and, and be that guy. And he was. Yeah, just really a pros pro, Joe. And, you know, it was interesting when they, when they took him off the roster and he became a free agent at the end of the last, last season. I asked Chris Antenna, that if there was a chance that would they bring him back. And Chris said,

6:38we love to bring him back. But, you know, I've heard that before a lot of times, and the player never shows up again. So, obviously, you know, he made a good impression here with Cleveland, with the front office and the coaching staff. But he also, you know, I think, if, you know, Allard, the way he pitched last season, I would have thought he had, he would have had a chance to go to somewhere else, maybe on a big lead contract. And maybe that's what the holdup was when he didn't get the big lead offer, you know, he came back to Cleveland. Yeah, I think a lot of teams that are maybe looking for the type of pitcher, the type of role player that Allard is now. Maybe they think, you know, the way they, the way they construct their rosters, the best play is to add somebody on a minor lead contract. And, you know, not have to guarantee them, you know, sort of that big lead roster spot right off the bat. But I see what they're getting first to the guardians know what they're getting in, in Allard. As long as he's healthy, he's going to be out there. And like you said, pros pro, he's going to be able to pitch

7:38in a variety of different roles, either long relief. Like you said, spot start. And then when it came down to it, he was able to take some, some leverage innings there and be a guy who Stephen Vogue could count on as a veteran. I wonder if like you said when you were talking to Antonetti, maybe they realized after he, he went and saw what was out there and wasn't getting any major league offers. Maybe if the guardians came back and said, well, we kind of made this kind of went down this road with Pedro Avila a couple of years ago. And they just wound up resigning Pedro Avila. And then maybe they just figured, hey, let's, let's jump in there and, you know, sign Colby again based on their experience, the way things went with Pedro Avila, who had to go and spend a year pitching overseas. Yeah. I think, you know, this is a valuable guy. A guy that has demonstrated he can pitch in different roles. And, you know, nothing, you know, he can handle a big league game, a big league situation. He can sit for a while. He can, you know, come in and give you one or two innings. He can spot start for you. Those are valuable guys. And he's been

8:42around the block like we said, former number one pick of the Braves. So, you know, he's been there and done that. And there's, there's always a place for guys like that in your bullpen and on your atterraster. Funny thing is, that sounds like a Pedro Avila from the right side, what he can give you the same sort of thing. His approach is a more normal workhorse and innings eater type as a right-hander, but they profile in terms of kind of their makeup, I guess, the same way Allard and Pedro Avila veteran guys both at this point in their career. The next question we have to sort of move on to the next, you know, topic here with, you know, facing Allard is, you know, what are the chances that he can make the bullpen on opening day as a lefty because it's starting to get pretty crowded out there, aren't they? Joe, I mean, all they've done this season, this off season is Adler Leavers. I mean, they've got relievers coming out of their ears. And usually, you know, historically, it seems like they've always been a little short on left handers,

9:45you know, left handed starters, left handed relievers. Now they have left these all over the place. You know, on a 40-man, they've got Tim Heron. They've got, they've got Doug Nakedi, you know, possibly Joey Cantillo, if he doesn't make the big league, you know, the big league rotation. You've got, you know, well, on our metrics, probably a starter, one way or the other. And Eric Sabrowski, of course. And then, you know, they've got a bunch of lefties coming to camp on minor league deal. Yeah, and one name you left off there, obviously, because he's a starter, but Logan Allen is a guy, you know, we don't know what his role is going to be if they're going to find a spot for him either in the rotation or try to move him into a relief role as well. So Allen, Cantillo, Heron, Messick, Nakedi, and Sabrowski are left handers who are on the 40-man roster and will be in camp. Non-Roster lefties include Allard, Will Dion, Steven Perez, and Ryan Webb. Obviously, Dion Perez and Webb are guys who have not been in the big leagues yet.

10:48Allard does have that sort of big league experience. That upper hand, I would think ahead of any of those guys to make a spot on the roster. But, you know, how does this sort of shake out? What's the numbers game that we're thinking here? There's two open spots in the rotation right now. You got to figure Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibi, and Slade Sikone get the first three spots in the rotation. So that leaves two spots for guys with starting experience or who you would sort of envision as starters. Allen, Cantillo, and Messick, I guess would be the guys sort of duking it out for that. And whoever gets left over from that takes up one of the spots in the bullpenner. Yeah, you know, and Cantillo is out of options. Allen and Messick have options. So, you know, you've got a little leeway there. You know, when you come to make an a rotation. So, yeah, Joe, I think, you know, that's probably a good way of looking at it. And also, Joy, I mean, who are the, you know,

11:50like guys like Holderman and, you know, the other guys they've added, Holderman, Armstrong, Prague, they've added a bunch of, you know, all right handed relievers, but they're going to be competing for spots as well. This is really going to be a crowded, crowded position. And it's going to be, I think it's going to be an interesting one to see how it unfolds. Who is going to be the final eight guys in the pen come opening day? Well, let's think back. Let's work from behind or work from the end of the bullpen here. You've got Smith, Armstrong, and Gattis for sure at the back end. I would put Sibrowski as long as he's healthy, but you got to also think that World Baseball Classic, if Smith and Sibrowski, they're going to try and, you know, ease them in after pitching in the WBC. Smith, Armstrong, Gattis, Sibrowski gives you four in the bullpen. If you throw, let's, let's say for argument's sake, that Logan Allen and Parker Messick make the the rotation.

12:52And because Joey Cantillo's got no options left and he has relief experience, you're starting Joey Cantillo in the bullpen. I personally think that Joey Cantillo's, you know, going to be a lights out starter this year. At some point he's going to have a stretch where he's in the rotation and he does really well. But let's say for argument's sake that Joey Cantillo is your first guy, your first lefty in the bullpen beside Sibrowski. Do they carry three lefties in the bullpen? Is there room for Aaron and Kobe Allard? Or I mean, who's going to be the oven out? Yeah, that's, that's a tough call. Aaron has options, so he could send him out. Allard probably has an out in his contract. If he's not on, you know, if he's not on the 26 man roster, the 40 man roster, I should say by certain dated late in spring training, he can opt out or maybe he'll agree to start the year at AAA and, you know, and get called up eventually or have a date in his contract where he'd have to get called up or become a free agent.

13:54So, you know, that's something that's an option as well. Two names as I'm looking at the bullpen options here right now. And I haven't even really looked at the other right-handed invitees to spring training, which would include, like we said, Avila and Cody Hewark, but I forgot about Matt Festa and what he did and the role that he provided last year. So, Smith Armstrong, and he's got a major league contract. Smith Armstrong, Gattis, Sibrowski, Festa, Cantillo, then you've got Holderman and Braugden, and then it's a full boat. I mean, Tim Heron looks like he's the odd man out. And we haven't even addressed the issue of Peyton Palette, who is a rule five guy who has to make the roster. Otherwise, you're going to have to offer him back to other white socks. Yeah. So, I mean, they were afraid of having a lack of depth in the bullpen. I mean, Joe, they didn't, they ignored the offense, but they certainly didn't ignore the bullpen. They've got guys all over the place. It's going to be a really, really interesting camp in that regard.

14:58And who knows? Maybe they could make a trade from, you know, if they feel this is a position of strength, they could, you know, make a deal somewhere either late in camp or sometimes during the season. Yeah. I mean, this is based on a strictly going by a previous major league experience and, you know, who's on the roster in terms of major league contracts and who's getting paid what, but just in that real quick breakdown, Smith Armstrong, Gattis, Sibrowski, Festa, Cantillo, Holderman, and Brogdon. There's your eight plus Messick and Allen in the rotation. And let's go. There you go, Hoindsey. We've solved the problem. There's all of, there's your prediction. And let's jump right into opening day because we can just skip ball spring training and go right to it. Loindsey, I'm going to shut you down right here. Betty, Betty is not something we want to even talk about. That's a sore subject. I'm sorry about that. Let's have a friendly competition. Let's call it and there will be no

15:59exchange of currency involved. But what's your wager here, Hoindsey? Let's see. I'll buy you beer. Well, no, no, I want to know we should have a bet about what about it. What the bullpen is going to look like on opening day? I think there's going to be eight guys in it and some of them are going to throw left handed and some of them are going to throw right handed. And most of them are going to be six foot four to six foot six or taller because you look down this roster and it's six four six two six six six. All these guys, I think Sean Armstrong at six two is going to be and and Festa. I believe Festa is only Festa's only six one. Those are the shortest guys in the bullpen as it is right now. Everybody else is six four or taller. The Guardians definitely have their type of reliever that they like. They like them big and they like them throwing hard. Definitely, definitely. Those guys like Kate Smith and and Hunter Gattis have shown that, you know, big body guys kind of they hold off from the way they have been used over the last two years. They're very, very durable and that includes the regular regular season and the post seat.

17:02Yeah, if you're going to pitch a guy 75 times a year, you know, he'd better be built to to make it the entire 162. Right. You know, we along with all these roster predictions and projections, we found out that fan graphs has come out with their predictions for the season and in terms of the number of wins and what place in the division team will end up based on that those fan graph projections MLB dot com posted a story about four teams that are trending up and four teams that are trending down and I know, I know, it's a you'll be shocked to learn that the number one team trending in the wrong direction that they've listed as the Guardians based a lot on the fact that, you know, they did spend the entire off season just building up their bullpen and not adding to their offense. Fan graphs projections have the Guardians at 76 and 86 and fourth place in the AO central behind the Tigers, Royals and twins. What more of the twins done than the Guardians to

18:06to improve themselves this year, you know, Cleveland keeps seeing itself listed behind the twins on all these preseason projections this year and last year. Yeah, the twins, you know, supposedly were in a rebuild Derek Falvey, but Derek Falvey, the director of baseball operations, president of baseball operations has left the club, I guess they are not. Derek Falvey walked into the room, saw it was going on and said, I'm out. That was it. But he was, he was willing to rebuild. I think whoever took over the ball club from the Polad family doesn't think they're rebuilding. So they're just reloading, I guess, in Minnesota. So we'll see how that works. But these projections have the Guardians at 12 fewer wins than last year and I get it on paper and based on everything, 12 fewer wins. Sure. But this is a team that came from 12 fewer wins back and and blew the doors off the the Tigers in the last month of the season. There's no account. There's no way that a computer can account for the heart that Stephen vote injected into

19:09this team and made them believe in themselves and got the job done. They're coming in with what, what's their playoff odds? It's like, hang on, I've got it right here. They're playoff odds to reach or to win the World Series 0.4% to make the playoffs 14.1% odds to make the playoffs. They don't have a lot of faith in the Guardians ability to do what they did last year. I mean, you can see why they would pick them to do this. They did absolutely nothing to help this offense and was one of the worst offences in baseball last year. But the Guardians, they know how to do this. They have a system. They have a belief. They really have a belief in their core players. They won the division, what, three of the last four years, six of the last 10 years. And not every one of those years have they been favored, especially last year. I mean, last year struck me a lot like this year, except they didn't sign Carlos Santana. I mean,

20:10so I get the predictions. I understand them. If you're a fan, I understand the frustrations that they're probably having right now, the Guardians fans, because they watch this offense all last season, just as we did. But these guys have a way of doing the unexpected. So I don't count them out, but I don't think they've had the best off season either. I mean, the best way I can explain it is, you know, I wouldn't put my house up as collateral for a wager on this team reaching the playoffs or going very deep, but because I still have to have a place to live. But, you know, I would not be shocked if we're looking up in at some point at the end of August or in September. And this team is writing them in the thick of a playoff race. And it has a lot to do with the way that the playoff format has changed. And teams are in the race for a lot longer and a lot deeper into the regular season than they have been in years past because of the playoff format changes. And there's always a chance to go for it as a wildcard if you're a front office. But, you know,

21:13then you get into the degrees of what you'll do to chase a wildcard as opposed to if you're a front running team and you're wanting to add to your roster at playoff time. And it's, you know, we're a few months away from having to debate and discuss that approach for the Guardians, you know, whether they're going to buy or sell. You know, this is way too early to talk about buying or selling before they've even picked up a bat in Arizona. All right. Hoynesy, one of the thing, one of the notes yesterday, Brendan Downham and traded to the Mariners. The Mariners had had had sort of after, you know, making one of the very earliest and biggest moves of the offseason in signing Josh Naylor. The Mariners had had really sort of been under the radar for a while in this offseason. They come through with a big move trading for an all-star infielder and Brendan Donovan from St. Louis. It was a three-team trade, but ultimately Donovan winds up to going to the Mariners. Just, you know, what'd you think of that move and how dangerous does this

22:15make? The first team that the Guardians have to face right off the bat on opening day. Well, Donovan, you know, really a, you know, versatile guy can play all over the place. He's got a little bit of power, you know, just just a really good ball player all around ball player. He's going to do nothing but help the Mariners and the Guardians were connected with his name early in the offseason, Joe, but that's that was before. I guess we knew that the Guardians were going to probably stick with their core players, their young guys from the last couple years and really not go out and seek outside help for this ball club, for this roster. But, you know, definitely a big move for the Mariners, what they were a game away from the world series in that seven-game series with Toronto. So, yeah, he's going to help them for sure. Yeah, it's a lot of different ways he can impact a game. Donovan can with his glove and with his bat. So, it'll be interesting to see how he fits in with that high-powered Mariners offense now,

23:18led by Kale Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez. All right, Hoynes, that's going to wrap up today's edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. We will check back in with you again tomorrow. Okay, Joe. Two good and co-coffee creamers are made with farm fresh cream, real milk, and contain three grams of sugar per serving. That's 40% less than the five grams per serving in leading traditional coffee creamers for a rich, delicious experience. Whether you enjoy your coffee hot, cold, bold, or frothy, two good coffee creamers make every sip a good one. Two good coffee creamers, real goodness in every sip. Find them at your local crogr in the creamer aisle.