Did the Guardians earn their 4th place projection from PECOTA with an underwhelming offseason?

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1:15I'm back to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. I'm Joe Noga joined by Paul Hoynes. The Pecota rankings are out that's baseball America's algorithm and its projections for wins and losses and you know playoff possibilities for teams this season. The guardians picked to finish fourth in the American League Central behind Kansas City Detroit and Minnesota at 75 wins. The Pecota rankings giving them a 10.1% chance at the playoffs. This on the heels of the fan graphs rankings coming out with the you know a similar projection. I think you know third or fourth in the division. What do you make of the Pecota rankings and where they have the guardians projected at 75 wins? Yeah Joe you know you really can't argue with them too much based on the work the guardians did over this over the winter you know concentrating mostly on the bullpen doing nothing to improve

2:19the offense but it should be pointed out that last year the Pecota rankings had them in a similar spot. Fourth place or I should say third place in the in the division you know in the range of 80 wins and lo and behold they won the division with 88 wins so you know preseason projections are just that preseason projections but this is a lot of work Joe by Pecota. I mean this is uh that's and you know I think they you know take it seriously obviously it's it's a serious endeavor and we'll have to see how it works because you know a fan graphs and and in the Pecota our hand and hand and fan graphs had them at 75.6 wins and a fourth place finish in the division. Yeah the the baseball prospectus you know it's the player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm that's that's what they're up against here it's mouthful but then they went back and and found that that that acronym also lines up with former

3:25major leader Bill Pecota so they named it the Pecota system developed by Nate Silver in 2003 Nate Silver of course the genius behind the 538 website and its projections for political and all sorts of elections races this is a guy this is a you know basically a way of determining how strong a team is going to be in terms of the runs that it scores other runs it's going to allow you know it is ranked here they have the guardians at you know not only does it give like playoff chances and percentages and all that but it simulates you know runs allowed and runs scored for the season you know projected runs allowed at 721 projected runs scored at 672 meanwhile it's projecting the code is projecting that the royals are going to score 723 runs

4:26and they're going to allow 698 so you know the the totals aren't you know super far off once you think of it but you know the the difference there is that you know they they think the guardians are going to have a pretty tough time scoring runs compared to the other teams in the division you know Minnesota 709 runs scored a Detroit 686 scored so these are just the projections there but really they're taking a look at that offense and they're saying they're they're just there's just not a lot there yeah well at least they have the positive run differential for for the guardians this year last year they ended the season as a division winner with a negative run differential they allowed 6640 man runs and scored 643 so I guess this is a step in the right direction. Other teams projected to win their divisions they're picking Seattle over Houston in the AL West they're picking New York over Toronto in the AL East to picking New York and Toronto

5:31essentially with the same number of wins with 88 wins each but they're giving the edge to the Yankees there saying that the Yankees are going to score 777 runs they give New York the playoff percentage chance of 0.5 percent even ahead of Toronto after all the offseason work there they have Baltimore ahead of Boston in the AL East as well so some of the projections for the division races there over in the National League they're picking Atlanta to win the NL East very competitive they're picking Atlanta with 92 wins that's that seems pretty high for the braves the Cubs with 90 wins to take the NL Central over Milwaukee and 105 wins for the Dodgers they're projecting we're gonna run away in the the NL West yeah that's I guess with everything the Dodgers have done and this this offseason and had already done before that I guess 105 wins is you know

6:32it made some sense it's about to 105 wins is a lot of wins Joe I think they had that the projection was right around there last year and I don't think they reached 100 wins no they were they were wildcard team last year that's right yeah so yeah I I don't know you can everything looks good on paper at this point but I just keep going back to fourth place again for the for the Guardians again in the AL Central why do the algorithms and why does you know fan graphs in Pecota always seem to think that the twins are gonna finish ahead of the the Guardians the last couple of years that's been the case that's been the case in their projections and it's just not been the reality on the field yeah I'm not sure I mean you know that the twins have undergone kind of an ownership shake up a front office shake up they underwent a fire sale the last season at the deadline where they traded ten players and they really haven't done that that much this winner they didn't get the okay to start spending money until late December I think then they fired

7:36Derek Falvey you know they're they're at your baseball operations so you know it's that's a little that's a little befuddling I guess maybe they like you know Pecota likes their young players but you know time and time again they like the twins so we'll have to see how that unfolds well speaking of liking young players I mean they must see something in Kansas City to put them ahead of Detroit I mean obviously Detroit now with Framber Valdez and Terrick's Google in their starting rotation and you add in you know Justin Verlander who we're going to talk about here in a second it makes them pretty formidable I think these rankings must have come out before they realized you know Verlander was going to you know sign with the Tigers but even that that rotation's got to be you got to be looking like one of the better rotations in the division certainly and in the American League what what about Kansas City do you think the the the the algorithm says points to the idea that they you know they can come out on top of this division well they they were 82 and 80

8:38last year you had some injuries a lot of injuries in the pitching staff I think oh they've made a couple moves this winter but I think you know they you know these projections are probably based on really good health for the royals especially in the rotation I think that's what that's what they're looking at right now and you know they they have some young hitters that should come around and they did some work in the outfield where you know they really needed some help offensively yeah and self-resk keeps bathing in the found of youth during the offseason he yeah he keeps coming back and performing every year and I guess Bobby Whitt any team the Bobby Whitt is on you're going to have a tough time betting against but just all the the the moves that Detroit made in terms of its offseason pitching I I think put it put the the Tigers in a position to maybe win the division I would I would definitely flip flop the two of them at the top of the division and then I have Cleveland third just in my projections but that's for a podcast like you know maybe closer to the

9:40start of the regular season we'll we'll get into that a little bit more we do have to talk about Justin Verlander who signs a one-year 13 million dollar free agent contract to rejoin the Tigers this is a guy who started his career in Detroit started his career I think the team that he's faced the most has been Cleveland in his in his career if I'm not mistaken so he comes back to the American League Central to I guess torment the Guardians at least for one more chance a one more go around here what do you make of Justin Verlander the multiple Sy Young and MVP winner multiple World Series winner this is a guy he's he's going to be a first ballot hall of favor and the Guardians are probably going to have to face him at some point more than once this upcoming season I think so Joe you know I thought it was when I first heard this that Verlander was coming back to Detroit I thought it was kind of maybe a you know a goodwill gesture maybe he comes in you know signs of one day contract and retires at the Tigers but they're paying them 13 million

10:42dollar you know 11 million of it deferred so they must think yes some you know fuel left in the tank you know he's coming off a so-so season with the with the Giants 4 and 11 but with a you know respectable 3.85 ERA in 29 starts he pitched well going down the stretch for the Giants and that must have kind of given you know given Detroit maybe they they decided to take a chance on Verlander and you know Joe you're right he has faced Cleveland 58 his most starts against any team in the big leagues he has the most wins 24 and the most losses 25 against you know against one single team in his career against against Cleveland he's he's pitched over almost 400 innings against against Cleveland in his career so this is the guy that that's familiar with Cleveland and always seems to you know they bring out the he seems to bring out the best in in the Cleveland

11:48seems to bring out the best in him he you know he he pitched against him last year against the Giants in a 4-2 loss and he faced him twice with Houston in in 2024 and pitched very well he gets a win and one you know he goes one and all in two starts a set a plus a seven inning no decision so you know he kind of rises to the occasion when he sees Cleveland across the opposing you opposing players chest yeah and this is a guy who he has 266 wins in his career and I know the win is sort of a devalued stat you know it's not like at this point he he needs to be stat chasing or anything like that I mean it's not like you know hanging on to try and get to 300 wins is is not something that he's going to be able to accomplish there's no way he pitches you know a full season for the next three or four years to try and get to that level but you know set to me it has a deeper meaning for him to go back to Detroit and you know you know sort of finish where

12:51he started and that's the message that he shared on social media you know when he when he announced the signing you know back when it back where it all began is sort of what his his idea was in his theme was early on the you know Verlander wasn't very good against Cleveland they Cleveland knocked him around a bit and and really sort of owned him early early in his career before he sort of became Justin Verlander but then once he took off you're talking you know a former MVP rookie of the year nine time all star he's won two ERA titles three Saiyungs he won he actually won the pitching triple crown a LCS MVP two time World Series winner I mean this guy is going to just he could walk in backwards to the Cooperstown six years after he you know finishes playing but he's been through he's been through all the injuries he's had all the surgeries and all the ups and downs and you've got to look at what his career has been and and really he's sort of in a lot of ways he's built that on the backs of the of the guardians because he was in the division for so long and he faced him

13:56so long and and then when he went to Houston he it always seemed like he pitched against him with Houston has part of that rivalry yeah he made his big league debut against Cleveland on July 2005 and Joe I mean he's kind of like the chip area on top of that that rotation now school bull Valdez Jack Flaherty Casey Myes and Verlander and you've got a couple guys you know that we've we've seen a lot of Troy Melton and Rysoulson kind of sitting in reserve so all the sudden that rotation is is looking very very dangerous yeah if they can put Troy Melton in the bullpen and not have to see him as often that that's great because that guy's a beast and I think you know the guardians would would appreciate not having to face him as much or maybe face him even more coming out of the bullpen who knows but yeah Melton's a you know real tough they they they've had a little bit more success with Rysoulson I think in the past but yeah it's it's a loaded rotation now it's got a name you know at every spot in the rotation and you just you wonder what the

14:59health is going to be like what you know how many starts Verlander at what he's what 40 how old is these 42 yeah he's going to be pitching it 43 so at 43 years old you know how many starts does he make this season it's you know the last couple of years it it hasn't been geez I'm just scrolling down his baseball reference page and I still have to keep scrolling to get to the bottom 29 starts last year but the the three previous years of 16 11 and 17 starts you know you you wonder how how many starts they're expecting to get out of him in in 2026 we'll see but again a very familiar face will be on the mound against the guardians at some point this season and that's that's just in Verlander another familiar face on the mound who is in a familiar I guess is in familiar company now according to Major League Baseball Network you know we've we've been working our way

16:00through each position according to the shredder the MLB networks ranking system and they got to their relief pitchers last night and Kate Smith appears in their top 10 on their rankings last year Kate Smith was the number two overall ranked reliever I believe Devin Williams was was the top guy on that list this year the the shredder ranks Kate Smith at number four on the list what did you think of the ranking of Kate Smith at number four by Major League Baseball Network according to its shredder metrics yeah no problem with that Joe I mean Kate Smith had a really strong another strong season eight and five 2.93 IRA 76 appearances 16 saves out of 22 chances and 104 punchouts and 73.2 innings just you know he's he's an emerging closer Joe

17:01and I thought he really stepped in when they lost class A to the gambling scandal stepped into that closer's role and it took him a while to get his bearings but he really you know he shut the door for Cleveland he's he really kind of saved that bullpen for them and he finishes behind a robust Chapman from Boston Mason Miller from San Diego and Edwin Diaz from the Dodgers now that you know they those are the three guys that finished in front of them Joe but the stat that jumps out of me Joe and you really don't I guess appreciate it when you see him every day two and seven strikeouts and 149 innings in his first two seasons in the big leagues I mean you know Kate Smith isn't fooling anybody he's coming out there to you know to shut you down to strike you out and just say next to get the next guy up there I mean he's he comes right out hitters and he I mean he's just he's kind of a force of nature right yeah and really to me the names on that list

18:03that you mentioned that are ahead of him according to the the shredder metrics Chapman one Mason Miller two Edwin Diaz three those are impressive those are guys are going to be there I was impressed with the guys you know that he finished ahead of on the list you know he's forth Andre's Munoz from the Mariners I mean that's a that guy's scary and he finished you know fifth according to the the the algorithm there uh Whitlock from the Red Sox was sixth Matt Stramm of the Royals seven Andre Morjan of the Padres so the Padres have a couple of guys actually the Padres have three guys in the top 10 because Jason Adam was 10 to you know Morjan is eight Josh Hader from Houston is nine and Jason Adam 10 on that list yeah I think one of the reasons and one of the big separators for um Cade Smith is uh the the fastball run value his four seam fastball uh was one of the most dominant pitches in major league baseball uh

19:08in in the 2024 season and in the uh in in the 2025 season as well uh 100th percentile with that four seam fastball and it's the extension that he gets coming down the mound uh that that really makes the difference there uh the run value according to uh baseball savant uh was uh I believed it was uh in the the plus 16 to plus 20 range he averages uh well over 96 miles an hour uh and you know the opposing hitters are only batting like uh 147 uh in his career off of his his forcing fastball he will tell you if you talk to him that he has more pitches than just the fastball has the splitter and the uh you know a couple of breaking pitches but uh but really it's the forcing fastball is the the big difference uh with Cade Smith yeah he gets insulted if you just say he throws a concentrate on asking him about the uh fastball because he goes I like to throw

20:08my other pitches but when you got a fastball like that I mean wow what an advantage and then you know you can uh you know break a change i levels with the breaking pitches on a hitter so really gives him an advantage but when he comes out there i'm you just look at him i'm thinking power all the way yeah and and that's that's really the profile of a lot of the guys in the gardens bullpen right now is that you know your traditional typical you know six foot four six foot five power pitcher who's gonna come out there and blow you away but a lot of these guys can pitch and Cade Smith he's precise and you know he doesn't miss a lot of spots he has really good command and you talk about how unflappable he is that's the thing when you ask Steven vote about him how locked in and how uh you know nothing phases this guy when he's on the mountain i mean i was in Seattle last year when he took a line drive off the bill of his cap and got up and struck out the next guy so you talk about a guy who doesn't get rattled i guess uh 110 mile an hour line drive back to

21:12to your face uh that knocks your baseball cap into our right center field think uh you know facing down something like that and then getting back up on the mound immediately after that and striking out the next batter kind of demonstrates that you've got nerves of steel definitely he look yeah he he looks the part too Joe like he said like six five about 220 130 pounds and uh he just he's like so serious when you talk to him you know everything is it looks like okay let's go let's get to signal for with as fast as we can and maybe you'll get a smile out of me but maybe not either well part of it i think oh might just be you know just being a little cautious with the media and you know not wanting to say the wrong thing or or whatever but his teammates point to him and say like that's the guy who does everything right i mean he's the he has the the really good routines he works really hard off the field and and when they're pregame and postgame and all that i mean

22:12this is a guy who's so locked in and focused Steven vote said that if he wasn't uh a relief pitcher he'd be an eye surgeon so you talk about a guy who who's you put a lot of faith and a lot of trust in in somebody like that i mean that's where that all comes from that's where that feeling is and that's how he's regarded in the uh uh the clubhouse uh yeah a lot of uh a lot of people would would sort of uh you know put their faith in their trust in in a closer when when you turn the ball over to him in the ninth inning it's sort of the same way if you return your your eyeballs over to your eye surgeon i guess it would be the the equivalent but number two uh it goes from number two last year to number four i don't think it's necessarily uh an insult i think it's uh you know just the way the um the the rankings they're fluctuating the guardians have have had now what uh you know Jose Ramirez at the top of the third base pro uh you know rankings for this season and now kade smith number four and the rank is there for the relievers that showing he when you think

23:18about what he did last season you know class a's and all world closer three time all started franchise leader and saves and all of a sudden he's gone in the snap of a thing your fingers he's gone somebody's got to step up uh you know steven vote was talking about closer by committee for a while but everyone in the everyone to cover the ball club and everybody in the locker room knew it was going to be kade smith in the ninth inning and that's how it turned out and uh i thought he handled it really well the ups and the downs of it i think he seems like he was made for that position that's talked about letting kade grow and get comfortable in that position but there was no getting comfortable for it right after yeah i mean it was pretty much just every save of opportunity he was put into it was it was trial by fire i think the first day he gave up a couple of home runs uh in his first attempt at being the guy right after class a you know went on the suspended list and then after that he just locked it in and was was lights out yeah and and he uh and you can tell by the way he handled things the good times of bad times i thought he was really

24:23even keel he was always at his locker he wasn't uh sometimes a closer or will tend to uh you know after bad one will tend to uh you know stay in the trainers room or or hide out a little bit but he was always there to talk to reporters you know i thought he handled it well he handled it like a professional okay so there's uh we got word yesterday the guardians released their promotional schedule and tickets are going to go on sale for individual games coming up a ticket on sale for the guardians uh on two one six day so February 16th get ready to get your tickets for the regular season 10 a.m. at clegardians.com slash tickets all tickets first like single games will go on sale at that point. They also released a promotional schedule. Hoynesy and uh I know if i get excited about seeing when the bobblehead's come out and who's going to be on a bobblehead and who's getting a jersey and sometimes that's maybe uh an indicator of you know who might be sticking around for the whole season and things like that uh is clearly not as big an indicator as

25:29the uh the cover of the media guide so we'll have to wait for that but uh it was uh really interesting to see some of these uh uh promotional items that are coming out uh we'll start with the bobbleheads Kyle I don't know you're a big Star Wars fan just like me uh Kyle Manzardo uh Manzardo is going to get a bobblehead uh on May 9th the man the manzalorian uh just like the Mandalorian for from Star Wars he's going to be dressed up on on Star Wars Day in a bobblehead featuring the the Mandalorian armor I think that's going to be really cool and a lot of people are going to really like that what do you think of Kyle Manzardo getting a bobblehead this year? I like it Joe I like the idea you know I kind of lost touch with the uh the new phase of Star Wars so I'm not I'm not really sure what that means manzalorian I'm not sure but do you remember to see it do you remember bobblefett yeah yeah yeah okay uh Mandalorian is a bobblefett's a Mandalorian so I have no I could do an entire podcast sitting here explaining

26:31the new Star Wars to to hoist if you want me to but I don't think a lot of people will be tuning so he's a bobblehead I mean he's going to be dressed it's going to be Kyle Manzardo dressed like a bounty hunter so okay which is better than Kyle Manzardo dressed in a flannel and a beanie uh chopping wood in quarterly and Idaho I'm just saying although I'm sure people would really like a bobblehead like that too other bobbleheads on the giveaway list uh they're going to do a Roger Davis 2016 game seven home run trot uh Roger Davis pointing to the sky after he hit his home run against a worldest Chapman in the 2016 world series it's the 10th anniversary and commemorating that 2016 team they're going to have a whole weekend surrounding that and that'll be May 16th the giveaway for the game seven bobblehead 15,000 fans that's going to be a real fun one as well also Gavin Williams and Kate Smith get their room bobbleheads so a couple of six foot five bobbleheads

27:31will be make room in your shelves for those but Gavin Williams and Kate Smith certainly deserving of bobbleheads on this roster I think you got to look up and down and say Gavin had an outstanding season last year as well as Kate well no doubt about it that they definitely deserve a bobblehead waiting yeah definitely I have to add those to the collection for sure uh among the uh Jersey giveaways Tanner by the uh city connect jersey which will be really nice uh be in the new blue city connect design that'll be on June 27th we get uh we get an Austin Hedges jersey how cool is that we get a Hedges jersey on May 30th so a lot of that first month or that second month of the season May 9th May 16th May 30th some really interesting giveaways there for the Guardians a hedgy jersey what do you what do you think uh much of how do you think Austin Hedges is going to react to seeing a bunch of people wearing his number in the stands think you know Hedges gets excited just being at the ballpark so when if he gets a little extra motivation it's going

28:33to have a they're going to uh you know Stephen votes going to have a hard time keeping him grounded I think so I think you'll be excited about that yeah Hedges energy that day at the park will be unmatched I think August 29th Bobfeller 1936 jersey giveaway so it's uh striped uh Cleveland Jersey with commemorating Bobfeller's debut from 1936 another real interesting promotional item also there's going to be nine dollar dog nights uh 12 fireworks nights and four free t-shirt Fridays throughout the season Hornsiano you like the dollar dog nights I mean those are uh you know uh pretty much a given no doubt about it you need about six of those couple beers and everything's just right so uh promotional items promotional schedule all set of course the uh the the schedule magnet is always a popular one for the the first home game on the opener because to slap the schedule up on your fridge and take a look at that throughout the season the Guardians folks always do a really good job with their giveaways and there's a bunch of uh

29:33you know special ticket promotions that are you know not ones that that are given away throughout the whole ballpark but you have to buy the special ticket uh those include some some unique bobble heads as well get like uh there's also some of the odd uh oddball giveaways they have uh you know like they always do bucket hats they do like a Jose Ramirez camp t-shirt or camp shirt giveaway I think that's a button down shirt and like a cross body bag so all very interesting stuff to look forward to to you know throughout the season here um wanted uh before we get going here Hoynesy a last little note we got from the Guardians uh baseball information office uh the office of Bart Swain uh the folks there uh with the club and this is uh sort of a style note I guess CJ Kaifus the the rookie who came up at the second half of the last season when he arrived from Triple A after uh you know just having a lights out first half of the season uh we asked uh CJ we asked the the folks in the baseball information office uh how we wanted his name to be written uh

30:37and they told us to write it uh with with the two periods after CJ the period Jay Kaifus uh things changed uh yesterday after I guess during the intake process out there a good year CJ wanted to go back to the way that uh he was he had it written when he was playing at the university yeah so you never know about these things Joe I remember you know uh C.C. Sebastian when he came up we we spelled you know spelled C.C. with a period after each C and then when he got traded to Milwaukee and ended up with the Yankees he said he he wanted the periods removed so it was C.C. you know with no period so you never know what a guy wants and I'm glad we got that cleared up Joe that was you know that was so far that's been one of the biggest stories of spring training what spring training are the off season well it's the it's the biggest mystery about uh CJ Kaifus because we don't really know a lot about him I mean I did a Q&A with him early on and then sat down and was stunned to learn that he's a big

31:40into dirt bike racing uh but maybe that's something that uh you know we we keep on the shelf while he's playing baseball here just to to keep him healthy we don't want to see any uh accidents there Colin Joseph Kaifus so the C.J. is Colin Joseph much like Carsten Charles Sabathea was a C.C. now C.J a C.J. Kaifus will be just the C.J. no periods big big big focus here uh in the off season big joke uh you know we all we all sort of had a chuckle when we saw the uh text from Bart uh passed around uh yesterday it's like oh we're going back to C.J. so that's the way we're going to refer to him in uh in conversation and in print moving forward means uh he's feeling a little more comfortable and uh you know you might as well get your name right right I mean yeah it's gonna be on baseball cards it's gonna be all over the place so you better get your name the way you want it so everything you know you you feel comfortable with well that was like when when Lindor went to uh to the Metz and and he said you know I didn't like it when they called me Frankie in Cleveland it's like that was news to us everybody was calling him Frankie he was calling

32:43himself Frankie and then he gets to New York and it's well I'm Francisco well okay we would have called you Francisco here only could call you Francisco here if that had been the way that you wanted it but and and I agree is getting more comfortable and feeling a little more comfortable in his in his skin and in his role now with the Guardian so we'll look forward to uh to talking to C.J. throughout the season then and uh calling him by the name that he wants to be called and writing it that way all right horns that's gonna wrap up today's edition of the Cleveland baseball talk podcast we will jump back into it to it through tomorrow two good and co-coffee creamers are made with farm fresh cream real milk and contain three grams of sugar per serving that's 40% less than the five grams per serving in leading traditional coffee creamers for a rich delicious experience whether you enjoy your coffee hot cold

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