Derby & Oaks Preps + 5 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Race Picks

0:00Welcome to Blinkers off with your host, Jared Welch and Aaron Holton. Good afternoon. What's up everybody? I'm Jordan Welch. He's here in Halter minutes Thursday, September 10th. And this is Blinkers off. It is, yes, all day long today. Good afternoon. I'm going to have the first week of shows, not talking about Saratoga. Hate that. But I tell you what, I think we have one of the best cards of the year at Woodbine coming up this weekend. So we roll right on. We got Derby Preps as well. I think, you know, a good Derby Prep in the year. Quite not bad. So a lot to talk about. Yeah, we got Derby Prep or Derby Prep. We got Oak's Prep. We have five breeders cup. Preps are winning your ends this weekend. So, yeah, it's, yeah, Saratoga anding. Sad. But guess what?

1:00We have, like you said, the Woodbine card is. I'll keep you know, nodal speech versus deterministic like sign me up for that. And then of course, on the track today at, at Belmont forever young. So forever young is in the States. He's getting ready for the Jack and Clip Gold Cup next week or Friday. I should say. We from tomorrow. For the opening day of the new Belmont Park. So, you know, Saratoga anding. Sad. But now that we have like Belm, the, you know, the new Belmont Park to look forward to. It's kind of exciting. Definitely. I'm very curious to see how it goes up there at Belmont. How everything looks, you know, and obviously the racing as well. How the track plays, you know, it is the same place, but different tracks. And so that'll be very interesting. I'm very excited to see it. And it's been on too long, you know, Belmont is a track. I always enjoyed to play and watch over the years. And we haven't had it for a long time. So, yeah, that would be next week. Excited for that.

2:00It's, it's kind of cool having Churchill back. It also kind of tells you a keen lens right around the corner as well. So this is a very underrated time of racing. I think every year that feels like that we got good racing leading up to the reader stuff. So, yeah, excited for all of it. For every young on the track at Belmont Park. Man, that just feels right, doesn't it? Yeah, especially when you see the video and you're like, you, it's, he's at the new, you know, New Belmont Park. You see it and you're like, oh, yeah, here we go. Like it's coming. Like this is, it looks that the facilities and the, and the backdrop look awesome. So it's going to be exciting to have it back. Yeah, I agree. I think with football and just fall and everything like that. Like this time of the year racing kind of gets overshadowed. But man, you know, because you have all the, you know, the other thing too, you have all this international flavor coming in, whether it be for every young. Or you look at, you know, the, the cards, the card that we have this weekend at woodbind. A lot of so many international type forces where you get to start. Now, it doesn't always happen until you do start to learn a little bit more about the international horses as well.

3:02As we do get closer to the breeder's cup. So it is a very hivetable time for, you know, for the kind of lead up to the breeder's cup. Yeah, absolutely. Football is back. But guys, it's really boring. You don't need to tune into it. Watch the game last time. It was terrible. It was so boring for three and a half hours. I would rather spend three and a half hours at Saratoga or Belmont or Kentucky Downs or wherever. I think it's more exciting. So yeah, look, it's back. That's great. But don't forget about horse racing because like you said, it's, I really think this weekend is about as strong as any. We've had the last five or six weekends and we were talking about Saratoga and Del Mar. So yeah, it's, it's definitely a heating up. I really am excited to kind of see how it all shakes out. Excited like said, the international presence is starting to really come over, you know, having horse like forever youngs. It's just unbelievable. And then what's happening at Woodbine? It's going to be great this weekend as well. And it'll keep going on to the breeder's cup. So yeah, it's obviously. I think we have like three or four really good weeks coming up.

4:04So what's the deal with sovereignty? You think he's going to be, you think, I mean, now it sounds like it's probably not going to happen that we're going to see you know that the buildup was hopefully seen forever young versus sovereignty. Sovereigny, you know, at this point, probably not going to happen. And I kind of feel like if it doesn't happen, then it's, you know, what we've seen it last year, he missed the, the, the classic and the breeder's cup. And you could see that at being a thing here as well. If he's not 100%. Yeah, and it's, it's one of those weird things of you got to really be 100% you know and feel like he's really rare and to go if you're going to try to go win the breeder's cup classic and beat a horse like forever young. So as I sit here today, I'm very skeptical that we are going to see him in the breeder's cup. And then if we don't see him in the breeder's cup. Is that that's probably it, right? So I'm very, that was the worst news we could possibly get. I mean, that's not true. You could get worse news, I guess, but it was, it was not great news because it just felt like man, we had this showdown that we were kind of hyping up forever since he crossed the line at the Whitney.

5:09And then it's like, man, it could be a, you know, something that lingers and then what are we going to see? So I'm not optimistic. Yeah, it's unfortunate just because it's like, you know, he that he was so good that last race where it felt like, okay, you know, after a little bit of a slow start to the year. He's back, he's back in a big way like here we go. Like now we're, you know, just get him to the breeder's cup and. And you know, and then in the talk right after was like, oh shit, now forget the breeder's cup, we get jocky club gook up with him forever young like sign me up. And then it sounds like, you know, the the abscess and the foot and then it's just really. It was the way Bill Mod trains. He's not going to, you know, that's not going to be a thing unless he's 100%. Yeah, I'm with you. And I don't know the, the article said we're less than 50 50 to make the jocky club and I was like, well, okay, you're zero percent to make that.

6:10I mean, let's be honest here, but. And I told you guys I said I would put 50 50 on making the classic at this point, you know, and the other thing is you're not, he has to be 100% doing well or they're not going to do it because we got a horse like that. And then you're not going to go out there and risk it right so it'll be interesting to see what happens. The abscess and a foot to you know, there's it depends it all always depends, but usually that takes a little bit of time. Again, I. I think the classic still a chance, but it's not ever what you want to hear leading up to a big race that we're missing workouts and we're going to skip a preparation like that's obviously not good. Yeah, we might end up getting the night's bridge in terms of like the, you know, the cheaper version of yeah of sovereignty. How he pivots is going to be interesting because by a's obviously is the horse that you know, now it's going to go to the jocky club, which wouldn't it be just fitting if he goes and wins, you know, beats for every young there.

7:13I don't know if we're giving up in him or not, so he got him he's he's out there and then what does nice bridge do and we always said hey nice bridge that'll be a good backup plan for the classic well. Will that plan have to be executed now and well, how will that look and what does that do the dirt miles so yeah there's a lot of dominoes that are getting ready to fall. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to it to Belmont because you know, you don't have to you don't see the lot right where you have a prominent track be new in a sense and you know, so it's like hold the whole track surface and. How horses are going to handle that and things of that nature where it's usually it's like well, we just know he doesn't like Belmont or we know he doesn't already love seroton or whatever the case may be it's just a whole new learning curve. For everybody has some of these horses start you know running at Belmont heart again yeah the vast majority of these horses have not been there you know they had never raised over that track before so it will be very interesting because like you said it Belmont is a very different place compared to the other tracks on the you know, obviously aqueducts not there anymore but aqueducts are a toga you know other places as well.

8:18Large sweeping turns and things like that so yeah some horses don't like it there still be interesting to see but like saddi the old climbers that are around still may have made a race of that track but your high level horse as most of them. They've never been there as far as a race goes so that will be interesting to see how that unfolds as well and by is a I'll say this he's never boring it'll be fun to see what he does this time. Maybe he breaks and tries to take him get to wire and does something crazy this time who knows but yeah I haven't for every young they're going to be very very fun. I guess before you know we got some to go racing obviously talk about today any any you know thoughts on Delmar or hopeful last week it's their toga as far as the two year went. It's one of those things where the the stakes were fine you know he was very good who knows with what happens outside of Delmar we've seen this video many times with Bob Baffert right and we'll see what happens. You know the hopeful winner was fine the good life you know couple nice wins for us there but USS Valor is what the two year old male side of things that's that's what it's all about I mean he was unbelievable made in special weight first race on Saturday.

9:30One of five buyers Steve has context me said he got a zero on the thorough graph so you know that's that's pretty good for a second race so USS Valor clear to me number one horse on the two year old male side summer starlet I thought winning the spin away very impressively for us Houston that's two year old Philly I think right now with things obviously going to start to change is a stretch out but USS Valor that's the big horse right there for me yeah that's going to be and we got some you know. Yeah I think he's you know that I'm with you I thought he was looked awesome but it's also like it's hard to get too excited for any of these Baffert horses until you kind of see them well for like for the ones outside of Delmar well you know like actually you know what it's a couple things it's like the horse. It's like the horse that are running a Delmarie are like well it's a sea what they do outside of Delmar and then the also it's like unfortunately you just it's hard to get too excited sometimes for these Baffert two year old because you just you don't necessarily feel like you you can trust that they're going to make the you know the the the the push to the to the Kentucky Derby yeah and I don't I don't want to just be a broken record about this over and over and over but there's little things that happen that that really.

10:46That that really just stand out to me and so you know John White Texas saying something it was an article or something a quote maybe from Bob Baffert about winning his 20th Delmarie Futurity right and so I went back and looked at the winners and and before Medina spirit several of those horses that won the Delmarie Futurity went on to do big things right American girl was one of them amongst many. After Medina spirit they've all been the phonyist horses maybe they weren't funny but they just they didn't do they didn't progress at all he's one and almost every year since the I think it was like I don't I don't know for sure I'm not going to tell you how many years and I think it's five could be six and none of them do anything and not only that it's just like. Like what you just said they barely race after that after they win the Delmarie Futurity so it's like something clearly has changed in that barn and so that's when you guys say it's like okay Hughes he looked awesome you're right when you take that race in a vacuum you could not have done any better than that was so good but until we see it outside of that track or we just kind of see him.

11:59Run multiple times it's hard to get excited about Bob aphriterals anymore we're in the past and when we first started this website that's all you got excited about right because they all were we're in it up being good or at least did something it's just weird how it's flipped yeah going through it Hughes brand gaming Prince of Monaco cave rock and Piner sets been the streak there so. You know yeah you know I do fair brand at that time he was the hype was real gaming the hype was real when he did that you know like these horses were really exciting at that point but after so long years like well alright you know and how many can even get there let alone right do anything right like a cave rock you know he went on he won he won. He was gone brand gone. Prince of Monaco gone who else who else would you say gaming cave rock Piner some of Piner's yeah I mean they're all gone I mean they they all like you would run well after maybe for a race and then it's over but when you talk about derby horses none of them yeah yeah it's it's it's hard to again I'm not we I don't think we're either one of us are

13:21discrediting and certainly could know use could be the one right that comes out of it but you got it that's a thing it's such a tough thing because you got you got to take him serious because it's Bob Baffert and these horses are heck of a bread most of time and you know look at you see his and looks good and everything really nothing about it you know on paper looks bad about the horse whatsoever and then you see the history is told us otherwise a little bit so I say cautiously optimistic I'm with you at the use of valor obviously was freaking awesome it's always cool when you see a horse you see a race where you like hey that horse can bet him back like that's going to be like he had issues and he wants to go longer and whatever and then it happens and all it is it happened but it he looks that good and you're like oh well that horse is obviously the best horse right now as a two-year-old and you know we'll see how that key race unfolds because a lot of times you have those serotonin races for these two-year-olds that turn into you know good three-year-olds where you're like remember that one like look at all came out of that one through the

14:26rure and second who were in third who were in fourth you know it's it's odd that USS Valor and in the way it works out makes this next statement what it is but that was the horse of the summer for me and it's weird to say that about a two-year-old but the whole Whitney group you know Vinnie was with the Paul was with us you know we had probably I don't know there's 10 15 20 people you know and we all all of us that really were following it we all looked at each other like that USS Valor who just ran third in this opening race on Whitney day that horse is going to be a superstar I cannot wait to bet him next time out and we were all also same boy wish we would have got the price you know today we're gonna get next time but we're gonna have to choke down four to five but it doesn't matter and then for that to actually happen like you said yeah but that was the horse that even that night after we saw sovereignty when the Whitney we were at dinner still talking about man that USS Valor that's a really nice horse and so yeah it was nice to see that happen and like said that was a

15:30little moment in time right now can he stretch out and do it now can you do this now can you stay healthy all this thing like the boxes are still there to be checked with that was a big first check mark for him to run like he did yeah yeah for sure and you know listen he's got the right he's got the good trainer you got a good you know you can get him there right you know you know you can be patient should we'll take care of him with that and you know I think it's early but he definitely he looks like the long like he'll do even he'll look better longer you know like the way he runs so we'll see but yeah so two year old racing underway obviously this weekend we do have more including official Kentucky Derby Kentucky preparation so let's get into the weekend it's it's kind of like last weekend when you said a bunch of stakes races to go over there's too many it's like too many to not like none of them you can leave out you got all five our brewers cup and then the other two are our an oaks and Derby you know we're going to go rapid fire with earquois which is for the Kentucky Derby the Pocahontas for the Kentucky yokes and five preters cup

16:34challenges is woodbine like you said has got put together one of the better cards maybe ever for woodbine especially for this particular day so we're going to go through that give our picks our strong opinions best bets including mentioning our scene double power plays again I believe this is week five so we'll see how we've been doing and see who our power plays are for this weekend let's go yeah I'm still solve over last weekend a little snake bitten to be honest yeah but there's only one way to to get it back keep going keep that right you can't win if you don't play right that's right that's right but get to get to get to get jenny home last week and get to get a big price and then feel really good about the second leg at Kentucky downs you're just like what could go wrong and then it did probably when you text me and you said you know I'm going to my my double is from Kentucky

17:42downs I probably should have tried a little harder to talk you but I didn't oh trust me I'm with you I thought the same thing when I when I said it I was like oh well this I mean it's Kentucky downs like this is like something weird is going to happen but you know I honestly was more worried about the first leg than I was the second leg and got the first leg home and that's happened two out of the four weeks that where I've gotten the first like home every time actually but two out of the four weeks I've had really good payouts because of that first leg into a second leg and you're like oh yeah I mean the first time it happened that second race I knew was going to be tough but this one I was pretty confident in but yeah you got beat by horse coming back off a seven day layoff and actually went to another state I went from New York to Kentucky seven day rest and ran down the horse that was up at Sir Toga on Whitney Day you know and won the big race so you know the Sir Toga Derby so yeah that was very and by the way Caroline Street beat forget about the seven days was I would say not all out but it was a

18:51tough New York bread allowance win on on Traverse Day like it was not a runaway effort by any means and then comes back and wins a $3 million race against the horse that just won the Sir Toga Derby I mean that's that's a really bad loss sorry tough loss I should say and that and that was I think it was a three right that paying so well the double that was a better of the two because you had that six who didn't run well yep with the three was paying like I want to say it was like 40 40 something dollars 44 bucks for a dollar yep yeah yeah and I had it I had it for 10 so yeah or five I'm sorry I had five and two two so five bucks so yeah so yeah it was it was it was that was that would have been a huge score there but for the scene double power play but hey we'll see I've got I've got like you said you're going back right so to keep going yep all right let's get to it race number eight church hill

19:53downs that is the grade three Hoko Hanna's three under K one mile for Phillies two year olds and again Kentucky Oaks points on the line official points 10 points to the winner 10 5 3 2 1 for your top five halterman build of nine lines up here nine to five on Monuka honey yeah I mean really it's kind of got some options here Miss Anna 7 to 2 4 to 1 with Scarlett bigonia and then period at 9 to 2 who you like here yeah look for these races at church hill I went with one favorite I'm gonna go against one favorite in these races this is the race where I did go the favorite I did go number two Monuka honey on top wouldn't be shocked if she gets beat but at the end of the day I just kept going back I watched the replays of her first two starts and I don't know man she looks pretty darn good to me nice maiden special weight win over this track going short one five and a half stretch out to seven in a stakes race at Ellis last time out and I don't know I thought she finished really nice

20:56and I think stretching out to a mile is going to be okay pedigree wise I think it's okay as well I just kept going back to the number two Monuka honey and I know you're going to choke down a little bit of a short price but I think she's just a little bit better than this group right now almost almost did pure at number one pirat of horse I really like the anorondak she ran pathetic but you know kind of what two year olds will do sometimes when they don't kind of get the trip they want they'll kind of quit a little bit I think pirat can can can bounce back I think if you want a bigger price that's the one but for me I went number seven or excuse me number two Monuka honey well perfect segue because guess who I paid altering number seven I went with the seven miss Anna yeah uh for Brennan wall this is a horse that debuted finished second going five and a half got beat actually by the six horse scarlet beginning in here on that race but then came back and dominated going longer at seven for long which I think is a great sign as we go a little bit longer here just need a little more you

22:00know brain well I thought on the first race just kind of you know needing more time you know five and a half not the game it seems like and it kind of showed I thought in that race and he gets a tee gaff in the saddle here for walls who they team up and you know hit about 20% so yeah I kind of like the angle of the improvement horse versus uh kind of you know that what we've seen so far I do think the two is going to be dangerous you know back to back really dominant wins so I don't you know blame you for that pick whatsoever I'm going to be using that horse but you gotta take a little bit of a shot here I think it could get um you know these races are the polka honours slash earquois I feel like there's always a horse that you know doesn't live up to the hype when it comes to these favorites so uh give me a little bit not mean slide up set it's seven or two but give me the seven Miss Anna I think it's a good pick uh a horse I I have in the top three um you know I think Miss Anna you look at the first race I thought really made up a ton of ground despite again a two-year-old debut in going short miss the break you know you're not

23:06going to win those races 99 times out of 100 and she didn't but she ran well ran well behind a decent horse there like he said Scarlet Bagonia um and then last time out you saw what the horse could look like with a with a decent trip you know stock the pace and just kind of mowed them down and ran away from them so I think it's a good pick as well and would not be shocked if Miss Anna gets a job done yeah you mentioned the one period of course Mark Cassie this is going to be you know we'll see how many wins he gets this weekend between the here in the in woodbine um well you know this you know I thought you the rate two races were really good that last race uh was not but uh if you can excuse that grade three which is a big grade three right it's Saratoga if you can excuse that and back to Churchill Downs maybe this horse can uh bounce back yeah I'm hoping so um I'm hoping so I I think it's a horse that uh you know we've learned over the years don't give up on two-year-olds real like quickly you know I mean let him let him let you down a couple times and

24:07I like said I really like that horse they had around that can just didn't run very well and um I'll tell you this I'll give you a 15 to one shot that I think is kind of fascinating the horse all the way to the outside the number nine to ha luke okay this is a weird horse this horse is a shadwell horse day viewing and horse shooting at was for you know kind of one of their B or C trainers right horses by curling out of the tapet mare so bred to be anything obviously they didn't think much of the horse the horse goes off at six to one so the betters didn't think much of the horse either she's breaking from the rail going five and a half furlongs there's literally no way a curling out of a tapet mare should be able to do that right in wind right she she breaks like most horses that are day viewing on the rail break you know not great shuffled back still wins like said sprinting five and a half furlongs now we're going out of mile which is what she needs you know pedigree wise what she needs to do that this is a weird horse right

25:12everything kind of says and this one's probably not very good but she looked pretty good on that day be race now it was slow but she should have been she broke from the rail going five and a fur longs a horse bred to go a mile a quarter it's the one so I think she's interesting I think she's gonna run well here it's an interesting you know angle there because of the connections are you know obviously shadwell but you said not it's not you know they're a trainer but right bred to go you know you never know a big big time purchase horse and you know like you said to do with that even if it wasn't you know I think they concern it how I cowl bad this horse thought was thought to be if you know it was six to one at india you know yeah I mean but it what's weird is if you go back so I went back and I went back and watch or not watch but looked at this horse's workout pattern because I thought how bad was this workout pattern leading up to the debut for this horse with these owners in this pedigree to be six to one she was she was

26:15fire bullets at keenland like she was working well I don't I don't know and it's weird and she's worked well coming out of that race I think she's only had one work but I don't know like I I think she's decent now again there are definitely signs there to say hey you might want to stay away from that but I'm telling you her debut race like said it didn't come back fast but she looked pretty darn good once she got you know her feet underneath her I think she's very fascinating here it'll be interesting to see how she runs what about the you know I don't know they're gonna run here but the four you know manlose is I'm having money on the four just because I play for big scores four is never ran before so four is making a debut possibly in the grade three polka harness yeah I can't see it it's not exactly for a barn that you would be like well okay well they know what they're doing here like I get that you know hey it's debuting in a stakes and that's weird but hey it's it's a barn where you go yeah well that you know hard to hard to not trust them

27:16I mean it's a barn that's pretty low as far as winning you know winning percentages anywhere it's they don't have a lot of first-time starters out of this barn but the ones they've had haven't been great so I don't know I mean not for me yeah I don't I mean I'd say I mean no for going to run but we'll see seems insane to do that do so all right you got the two Monucahani I will go with the seven Miss Anna to win the polka harness race 10 is the Euricoid stakes grade three worth 300k again this is for the boys one mile two-year-olds and Kentucky Derby points on the line ten five three two one for your top five field of nine here as well and then Sal Hootins I used to say that eight to five for Bob Baffert and really I mean he is no lie five to one six to one antivenom nine to two and blessed flyer Caribbean life at six to one

28:18some of the bigger shots there or like the main shots you know listen we talked about Baffert we talked about him at Del Mar now he's got a horse here that has been running here as far as you know not on the not on the in California so does that make this horse more enticing to run well in this one I'm gonna go against Baffert here I'm gonna go against the favorite in this race Salahudin two nice races down at Ellis and didn't did anything wrong and there's there's really not any you know if you want to play in a short price that's fine I don't I'm not gonna want to talk out of it I'm just I'm gonna take a shot against I think this horse going a mile now I thought was slowing down a little bit going seven for a longs and I just think there's better horses in here that can run him down and the other big reason I'm going against them because I've been waiting to play number six antivenom in this race specifically for a while now antivenom number six is gonna be my pick your six to one on the morning line this was a horse that was entered on Stephen Foster day in a nice maiden special weight scratched out of it I guess because of the rain or maybe he had a

29:22little issue I have no idea but it ended up scratching ran on the 4th of July at Ellis Park and ran like I thought he would that day at Churchill when he was entered in the Stephen Foster he ran great uh three and a half link victory looked really good doing it short race five and a half for a longs and then I'm immediately I said well I think they they need to target the Eroquardt because the thing is with this horse yeah he did win and you know going short he needs to go longer this is a horse by candy ride out of a tap at mayor they're not really supposed to win at five and a for a longs when you have that pedigree yet but a one turn mile yeah absolutely now you may look at that maiden race and go play not very fast on the buyer not very fast on the time form again I think the pedigree says we need to go a little bit longer before we see this horse at his best I think the one one turn one mile race can be good for him I see a lot of improvement I think he sits a really nice kind of stocking trip and I think he's got a lot of talent so give me number six antivenom I think he's he's gonna be really tough in here and I think he's

30:23worth the play at six to one yeah I mean brand well enough that day as well to get tracked the likes of Jose or T's who now has the mount um for Mark Cassie yeah I'm with you that's my top pick as well I haven't say I mean same boat like you and I talked about this horse when he was debuting and then of course scratch like you know what you just said and um so yeah we we had eyes on this horse on that debut and I've been excited to bet him back because I do think going long will he'll be really good I I personally for a horse that's bred that way I thought he looked awesome in that race and really feels like a horse that only is gonna get better going longer so yeah I'm excited to play him a six to one too Halterman I don't know how much money you think this baffer's gonna take but maybe we get a little bit of that six to one here because that would be nice I you know we'll talk about the baffer now because like you said there's not a lot to to knock on the horse horses two for two you know it's kind of been dominated dominating wins both times uh lots first time I kind of came from off the pace a little bit the last time went you know

31:25it was a little bit off for a bit but then you know it just kind of got to the lead and get to wire going seven for longs that day you know it stretches out a little bit I don't know I don't think he he looks bad I also don't think he looks like spectacular either so I I I will be playing against uh here as well yeah I as far as getting six to one on antivenom I do think baffer it'll take money um you also in my opinion you have a faulty buyer with blessed flyer and he is no lie they have like high 80 buyers for the race in the Bashford Manor and I I don't really buy that but I do think those numbers will get bet so I do think you know blessed flyer nine to two he's he is no lie five to one I think they'll be around that um Caribbean life the one horse is one I have a lot of interest in as well I think he'll take money walled in and Pratt so you know a long way of saying I I think maybe not six to one on antivenom but I think he's going to be a square in a price I I don't think this is one that's going to be over bet because there's a lot of other options that

32:26you can go within the spot all right uh give me and I'll give you one actually because it's part of my power play and I talked about that in a second a horse that I think is interesting that's you know you and I always have pointed as the big peak special is the five real good bar for Kenny McPeak you know it's I've won with I cannot you'll have to well have to look it up I can't remember I always forget the horse's name but I've won on a horse with him the same same same exact thing turf horse switching over here in the urecois McPeak at a big price it's not you know he loves to do this thing where he starts a horse on the turf runs well rated a mile to by the way it looked really good that day it's not like he looked bad like now they're trying like no like that's that's the plan to run from that to this um 10 to one yeah it's been a minute but look at the workouts uh that last August 22nd bullet out of 167 he slowed them down a little bit since those last two but I think this horse is going to be ready to run yeah I'm with you at 10 to one real

33:28good bar the five is certainly one that I think you should throw on tickets uh he is the Kenny McPeak special I mean this fits to a tee uh and the thing is with the Kenny McPeak special some it's usually winner run last uh in these kind of situations yeah so do be prepared for that but we've seen him do this a lot he does this with his young horses quite a bit um or he'll he'll kind of try him on a couple different surfaces and honestly when you look at when you look at real good bars pedigree obviously authentic on the on the top half which is you know that's a derby winner classic winner obviously that's dirt but you got a candy ride mayor on the bottom which I could see why they thought uh maybe let's try the turf here and see what happens it's it's a pedigree that could go either way um and you got to you definitely got a trainer who has no problem trying him I mean we may see synthetic for this horse next after the dirt so um which is again that's just kind of what he does but real good bar feels live to me I'm 100% with you I said in the preview

34:30okay use the same word you did it's a Kenny McPeak type of horse this is kind of his entry usually looks like this in this race and sometimes they run very well so we'll see what happens with this one but I think he's live yeah you mentioned the two bless flyer you know I think you know being that kind of inflated number that last race gets you know gets pretty low odds here as well as probably gets in play you know do you but do you like the horse or are you kind of strictly playing against because of you know the inflated number I took a stand against the two and the eight both um you know the steel of Mike Sommage line feels like I didn't attend the wedding last time out for bless fire 31 to 1 so I don't want to attend the funeral this time type of thing um and he is no lie I mean he did not come out of that race and run very well last time out at Del Mar so I I'm going to go against the shorter ish prices with the two of the eight at I'll play the six I'll play the five I'll play the one and you know if I haven't worked out the pick five ticket yet but like maybe

35:31throw the seven in a pick five ticket but but nothing on top as far as exact as there tries yeah the uh the the he is no lie horse you mentioned number eight you know got second that day and the bachelor of men are came back and ran at Del Mar for doggoneel and the best pal uh finished fourth being thirteen Hughes actually won that race so there's that I guess um but it was very very distant uh you know fourth so uh yeah hard to kind of get too excited about the the bounce back there we haven't course seen bless fire since that bachelor in manner um so we'll see I mean like you know the thing is like horse wins on debut at Keenlin 13 to 1 and the reward for that is he gets you know almost 32 to 1 the next time out and we still he still wins which is like great but you're also like all right I'm not going to continue to chase this horse now um when he's been winning at massive odds yeah and that's just it and look I I I I call the the the buyer for the bachelor man or kind of faulty right that doesn't mean it was a bad race like I you know you go back

36:37and watch that race it was good enough right but I just don't know that we're getting a high 80s buyer I don't know if those horses stand out uh amongst this group like they look on paper that's all I'm saying but look I mean hey two for two there's a horse that won a a Keenlin 4.5 for a long race that was not trained by Wesley Ward so there's not many that do that and then to to win a stakes after that's good so I just think in this spot I'm I'm kind of I'm against what do you think of the one um the one looks pretty interesting to me one star main special way for uh for Walden and Pratt gets them out now here the horse has been working very very well seven furlongs on the debut stretches out of course here on the rail that could be interesting like you've mentioned with those you know these young horses the rail could be tricky um what do you think of the one yeah I think I think this is the one that you got to put on tickets I thought it was a really good debut race um you know you talk about the McPee course who's been a mile on the trip the rest of these horses they haven't really been a mile uh but but you know a seven furlong debut race will really

37:41get you ready to run a one-turn mile I mean that's that's that's that's it's not the same but it's a close as you can get without without going that actual one-turn mile so to be able to do it at seven furlongs and to look really impressive like that I thought was a good sign also look sources by life is good and life is good is hot hot hot right now so you've got life is good on the top you've got an archmer on the bottom I like that stamina pedigree on the bottom of the life is good who we don't know as a sire what he's going to throw as far as how far they're going to want to run but I think this source is going to get a mile I love the Flavin Pratt gets bored I mean I I really like this source I think you'll run well all right we're here at Churchill uh and both of us actually have our plays before we move on to Gulf Stream and Woodbine for the for the Breeders Cup races um both of us have our power plays for the double at Churchill this weekend so I'll let you start it off because your races are happening earlier in the card yeah so I'm going to go to race number four here uh to kick it off I'm going to do a $10 daily double like I said I'll start in race number four number 10

38:43circle tap that's the top pick for me uh I think a really nice race at Ellis last time out knock the rust off a little bit and that race was coming in off of a layoff and I thought ran really well and I think this race sets up very well for circle tap second off the bench I think uh he is going to run pretty well uh a horse of it that you know at one time went to the southwest after break it is maiden and didn't run all that bad and then kind of got hurt but I think we're going to run well here and then the number 11 uh like I said I'm going to go 10 11 on this first like simple primus interesting horse uh really really ran a fast race two races back um and then last time out you know just just didn't run very well but then it was 357 days later since that race to this one so obviously had a little bit of an injury but this was our really good horse uh until that injury as a horse it was going to uh maybe you know kind of blossom into something decent so I think the 11 simple primus going to be tough but I'm always all right what I'm trying to do I should say

39:45is get alive to the number three coach Pope so number three coach Pope if you don't know him he actually finished ahead of USS Ballard last time out by a neck he was in that maiden special weight on Whitney Day the first race of the day who would throw the winner of that race one by a half leaf coach Pope was second USS Ballard was third we saw what USS Ballard did last time out with that one will fight by her last weekend I do not expect coach Pope to run that kind of race but I do expect him to win this race I think he'll be very good he stretches out to a mile which I think is fine for him he's a tapet out of a ghost uh zapper mayor so the one turn mile is going to be good I really like coach Pope in this spot and I think it will be extremely fascinating just like last week to compare coach Pope's time going one mile to that race coming up there the Yeriko and the Polka Honest as well for that matter you see who runs the faster time they're very interesting just like we were able to compare uh the spin away to what happened with USS Ballard and then the

40:46next day even the hopeful USS Ballard was much faster let's see if coach Pope can do the same thing so race for ten ten dollar daily double 10 11 with three all right uh I will go it by the way I love that and because I'm excited to see what coach Pope's going to do uh I mentioned race nine in the locust Grove I'm going to go with the one splendora bob baffard I mean really needs no introduction here this horse has been awesome I think you know the gear concern is immersive who you know finally you know looked decent last time out the floor to these but uh you know you go back you just get go back two starts when splendora kind of stomped this horse here at Churchill down so mile 16th is kind of her game splendora's game like still running up Churchill runs well Churchill other than that derby city disc tap but again that was seven for longs um I think it should be fine here so I I like splendora a lot and I'm using I basically was kind of going to key around her

41:47so I went into the ear of coiz and again I do like antivenin like you do and uh decided just because you know listen the if it goes baffard baffard that payouts not going to be great here so I'm going to try to beat baffard in this race as well with that double and then to go the five real good bar with big peaks maybe peak and win both of those races I wonder the odds of that right I'll go five six in this race so I'll pull it up on the screen so Churchill down to race nine the one singled so to be a ten dollar play uh you know a twenty dollar total wager in race 10 the five and the six halterman has got the race four ten eleven race five the three you can see the stats there it's a lot of red on my end halterman you're you you started hot you're dwindling a little bit but your ROI is still very good um I well mine's easy to calculate every week at least because I just just added another twenty to the to the miss but uh hopefully I can get splendora home and

42:50well we know that's going to happen right because I'll I'll be alive the first leg and we'll see if I get the second leg home yeah I love the trying to play around splendora I think that's the right call uh I'm with you I have splendora on talk on top she's just been phenomenal uh for bob afer really look good in the mullipit your last time out really good over this track beating immersive two races back as well so uh with you on that one yeah we'll see what happens I uh uh I uh you know that the fourth race is one where it's like it same way with your tenth race yeah when you're playing a big favorite like this if you're not going straight if you're going to use a couple horses you got to try to use some prices and get some value going and I think we'll get that accomplished if we can get through the leg there where you're trying to create a little value that's right yeah it only takes one man low I mean last like you know you get you get that leg home last week which was brutal I mean you're up you know that there are wise nine day right it was a well two two dollar cash if if this comes in splendora real good bar what's your your

43:53base this week's ten bucks I you'll you'll make three hundred dollars at least in my opinion yeah and then and then your minus 80 into two up to 20 and uh or you know something like that so that's that's why daily doubles are great and that's why he's right you could be one for five and be up to hundred and twenty dollars yeah and honestly I consider and we'll talk about it here to of course you know but I consider going just like straight wage or it would bind into like you know with notable speech and he's like yeah I mean you know that the first fall that comes in it's like paying like three dollars you know or something it's like no I'm you know go for value here and you're totally right if you like a horse a single um you know sometimes it works out like you know Antivan was my top pick regardless of the double right and so I you know you I had that and kind of was against that Bob at Bob effort in the earquays anyway so kind of worked out but all right yeah that's the scene double power play for week five that we will see um see if I can

44:56get on the board I just want to get on the board honestly yeah you know because honestly the first week we you hit the first week I thought I was giving you we both had uh good starts and I was like yeah we're this gets the greatest segment ever and then you good for you at least so yeah not so much for me all right let's go back to rabbit fire and let's go to Gulfstream Park now that's right it's always uh for the princess Rooney so it's always the one time we talk about Gulfstream this time of the year I feel like uh it's always for the princess Rooney stakes the breeders cup Philly and Mayor Sprint win in your inn and you got to feel the seven with a bunch of happy Joseph horses and you got to basically decide if it's going to be any of those or are you taking the the McCarthy horse at age five yeah this is always kind of an awkward race isn't it like it's like good this doesn't fit into the what we've been doing oh down there at Gulfstream lately but uh yeah look you got to choose between the safis I went with number two carries kiss on top in this

45:57one for Safi uh five to two on the morning line so I think it's a second choice in this race and win our three straight and uh you know uh two straight right here at Gulfstream Park really good efforts um simply joking probably you know better than what she's been facing but I kind of just think this is a Safi horse that has gotten comfortable down there and will be very very tough to beat so give me number two carries kiss yeah that's uh that's who I went actually as well I was trying to decide which which which uh Safi to go with and this is the horse that is at Gulfstream Park it's two for two at Gulfstream Park and one for one at the distance right on off three straight wins and uh yeah just I mean there's really not a lot to this horse is fast and I do think that that it is an interesting because you got you know a lot of Safi horses in here if three of them and they're fast they seem fast so I think the one drawn inside of the two will be interesting to see um if if maybe they send the one and then I have the two go right off sometimes I think you got to be careful with these kind of races where it feels like on paper

46:57there's so much speed there's so much speed like you know this is all going to collapse you got to find sometimes these kind of especially Gulfstream Park I feel like it's like well just maybe find the horse that you can think can can stay on the longest up there on the front end yeah uh you're right and that's that's kind of how that plays some types especially when they're trained by Safi Joseph wait what do you mean um yeah exactly but uh yeah give me carries kiss as well and yeah it is always one of those weird races that you don't ever really feel it could happen like we got to we discuss it the princess for any happen but it's also like it's like thrown in you're like oh yeah I forgot Gulfstream Park Princess for any right in the middle of woodbind and uh these you know usually all these you know international races that are happening uh and it's like oh and the princess for any so I don't know all right we're we're hey if it's a if it's a breeder's cup race there's five of them this weekend we're uh we're gonna to cover it so we're both on the same horse there but let's go really to the main event of the weekend and that is woodbind for the uh woodbind mile day and it's a fucking fantastic car we're gonna go through five of

48:02them or four of them I'm sorry which are all breeder's cup winning or in races we'll start it off halter with the atom mistakes which is race five grade one 500k one mile on the turf for the two -year-old fillies breeder's cup winning or in for the juvenile fillies turf uh which is always a fantastic race at the breeder's cup filled up of 11 here in the kind of the name of the game for this weekend or for that woodbind is which international horse is you know you like and which ones you can can play here you know I think Voyager for Mark Cassie is very interesting as well what do you think? yeah I like Voyager in this one uh so number four Voyager on top for me two races on the dirt to start the career and they were both decent enough you know second and a maiden special weight where I thought she ran you know pretty well and then got second uh as a maiden in a stakes race up at Saratoga on the fourth July weekend there and got beat by Harper's Corner it was pretty good a horse but I thought Voyager ran well then we get to the turf and this is a horse by justify out of the Lee mayor you don't see that name very often Lee he was decent at the time when he

49:04was really running well and going good but just by you see everywhere but you know just by can throw turf horses they stretch out in distance you know they go a mile and 16 in that turf race I thought Voyager ran really well and I think can improve second out on the turf here um give me number four Voyager on top I wish we were getting a little bit better than four to one I love that price but I do think realistically she's gonna hold somewhere around there so give me the four yeah she was uh also entered in the in the the male side race that was very weird yep uh you know in Cassie's kind of said after the way how how good that race came back um which you know why would you do that you know it's the same purse it's the same distance it's not yeah it's not I don't know I anyways uh you know because of that race you know which was like being a better race get some nails obviously so you know you're gonna probably stick here but uh yeah I like Voyager on top here you know you know you kind of laid it all out there I do think it's a very tough

50:07race but um you know that last race was you know on the turf after you know running well on the dirt but that last race um I thought was pretty damn impressive going a mile 16th as well so you're getting a little bit of a you know you know you went from six for longs all the way to the mile 16th on the turf you're getting a little bit cut back here um I think Voyager is gonna be very very good here and you know listen this is always a tough race because it's a bunch of two year olds who have one or two or three races max um under their belts but uh anyone else you liking here at a price man I thought about a lot of different ones I'm gonna try to beat the favorite in this one um the number six uh gosh I I almost picked number 10 uh control who wow 12 to once yeah this is the first time I'm seeing these odds I handicap this when the odds were not yet control at 12 to one is kind of crazy I I think that's a horse that can think that does have to stretch out in distance but I actually think she'll be able to do it I think it 12 to

51:07one the number 10 makes a lot of sense uh one even to look at the other Cassie who's a maiden number 11 Royal Fox trot sometimes Cassie up here especially can win with kind of his quote and put other horse I thought that's an interesting horse as well um so yeah the two to the outside made sense I'm just trying to get around the six uh the four was stopped pick but I thought about the 10 and the 11 for quite a long time all right yeah you and I are both on the four Voyager at four to one from our Cassie let's go to two races later which is the summer stake same race for the males 500k one mile on the turf for the two rolls again juvenile turf breeders cup winning you're in event and a big field here of 12 this you'll be another fantastic race and you look and now it's like okay here's here's some of the international horses started to come over you've got Abelbee in here you've got um you know Cassie's got horse you you'll see some scratches of course with uh with the likes of a couple fillies but anything you like in here and what do you think yeah look

52:08I had the number three Oscar kind of circled after that maiden specialoid score at Saratoga on by the way that magical day Whitney day were all these horses are coming back and running well uh Oscars when I had circled but um you know oftentimes in these in these races uh for two year olds once we get close to the breeders cup Abelbee or or Oro Brian will send one over and it's like uh I don't know so I went with the favorite number nine Al Houdiba believe us how you say that name Al Houdiba number nine this source is a group two winner overseas group two third place effort last time out thought ran really well in that one I'm gonna go number nine the favorite here I do like number three Oscar those are the two main ones I'm gonna use but on top I gotta go number nine yeah this is uh just go ahead and give you guys a heads up like this is my my notification like these next three races we're talking about is it's gonna be somewhat chalky for me because it's like a lot of good dolphin and I I'm a sucker for Applebee and good dolphin when it comes to woodbine and listen I

53:09like the nine as well um you know that last race I thought you know finished uh third was right there coming you know at seven furlong as well the horse at finished second half and her came back to win a breeder's cup winning your in race so they know he's already in and I thought he ran well he ran even better the next race uh so I think that race was a pretty good race and and really no the there's you ran four times you know uh unseated the rider in a second start but the other three you know whenever the horse actually finished the race with the jockey uh one all of them except for that vintage last time in the group two so um yeah I think I think the nine's coming in with the with the big time shot here gets William Buick uh as well so you know you know we may I mean we know how sometimes that goes with sometimes he runs you know we saw what he did with notable speech I would remember whenever I was looking at him I like had like a mental flashback of that race with notable speech how bad that ride was that day um well hopefully we don't want it that get don't get that right here on the nine so I'm with you on that uh speaking of let's get to the main

54:14event because this race is so good let's go to the woodbind mile race number nine so woodbind mile stakes million dollar race one mile the turf for three year olds and up yeah you look at it right there you're getting notable speech at even money versus deterministic at two to one I mean that's really all I you know I want to give disrespect to anyone else in the race but it's all we need to really talk about it right now because you know no little speech is is easily one of the one of if not the best uh you know myler on the turf in the world and then you look at deterministic who could make an argument for that case because this horse has been anything but amazing he's been awesome like he's been just like dude he's round about six straight wins he loves Saratoga so there's that but he also he's dominated first six straight wins you love him do you think he's good enough though to beat the likes of nodal speech yeah I do um I but it's it's one of those situations sometimes

55:15your little horse pets that you have have to run against each other and and these are two of my biggest horse pets I love deterministic and I love notable speech uh horses that have been so so good to me over the years uh you know multiple years now at being said I'm going to deterministic I'm going to go against notable speech I went back and looked I've never picked against notable speech ever um now he hasn't been over here but four times would I've picked him every single time give me deterministic I I don't hardly ever pick against this horse either um I know I'm telling you I think he's just brilliant I think he has run been running so well again this year I think he's doing fantastic the biggest thing is isn't isn't he loose on the lead shouldn't he be several links ahead of notable speech in this race I think so I look at this I don't see a lot of pace I think deterministic can go out there and walk the dog and even if he isn't on the lead he's shown he can just stock whoever is on the lead and just get by him so I think he's got a little

56:19bit of a tactical advantage here um now if he wins here it doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to pick him again in the in the mile but uh I think in this spot it sets up well for him I don't think he could be doing any better so I'm going to take number one deterministic a mild upset here over the number three notable speech yeah that's gonna that's that's gonna be so fun about this race is you're gonna have two completely different styles and deterministic you know it's gonna be sprinting for home there and you know the little speech doesn't like to do you know he no no speech is a very interesting horse he he doesn't really like to run until he gets covered up a little bit and then once he gets covered up like he just takes off you know like he needs to like have that uh I don't know what it is like I almost need that game you know he needs to have some game with them with it with within it like he just snob like he's a horse you just sit on the outside and just let him go like he needs to be within traffic covered up and then boom um listen I I can't go get so little speech I love that's that's I I love him so much and I never picked against him and uh

57:21made me some money last year at the Breeders Cup I think the difference for me is yeah deterministic is been awesome but you know this isn't do a kingdom or test score you know battle normandy or you know intellect like he's gonna have a real horse coming down to get him and notable speech is a real one and it's just I think it's gonna be a matter of if he's got you know how much you know how much he gives you know you know leeway he gives to try to get him because deterministic that on the same regard is no slouch either like he's gonna have to go and get him uh I did think you know you'll back and look at last year's race coming into this one before the course the Breeders Cup mile he didn't actually it kind of kind of rough really has you know running and group ones right but you know finished fourth fifth second finally you know got back on track with those back-to-back wins in the woodbinding Breeders Cup mile this similar situation here although now he's got a little hot he had a bad you know uh queen Anne and then of course last last race I

58:22thought he looked really good over in New York so I think he's kind of getting back on track here for applebee and I expect him to run well here so give me the three notable speech I you know this probably will be the first of two I would think right assuming deterministic is headed the Breeders Cup as well that will get uh a little you know back-to-back rematch yeah hopefully he gets there last year of course injury uh forcing to miss the Breeders Cup so hopefully he does get there and yeah we see a rematch and yeah I mean I'm certainly not going to be surprised with notable speech wins that's for sure I mean um he he is a beast I don't tell you I I love this horse and I I really thought applebee did a smart thing last year bringing him over here to run oh getting one started North America before the the mile uh because you know the mile in uh 2024 I thought man he should have won that but I think last year you got that prep race you know like said North America style of racing and then went in one the Breeders Cup mile but uh I think this is going to be a really good race just a really really good race I think it's going to come

59:25down to these two you know they're going to turn the corner and I think deterministic is going to be a couple links ahead and we'll see if notable speech can go get him and I think that's the race yeah I mean that the like Kevin says I know the trip was bad for no speech with the horses you listed in that or you know isn't the horses that beat no speech in the Keenlin I mean yeah I'm with you I get it uh as you look at me as a horse I've mentioned who did beat him that day that was I mean I've not you know again there's people that have been watching racing longer than I have but in all the years I've watched racing that's maybe one of the all-time bad rides like that horse was leaks better than anybody in that race and never ran a step because didn't could get it couldn't run in this step you know it was it what made it the worst ride I've ever seen is there were only I think there were only six horses in the race right so like you go to the Breeders Cup mile when that would have went down as a bad one if that thing doesn't open up the rail opened up and the horses able to win but at least you you exit the Breeders Cup mile and say he didn't get through well you know

1:00:30it's a full field right yeah there were six horses in the makers mark and he never ran a step he literally never gave him an opportunity to do it so um and then what made it even worse is right after the wire he's just galloping links ahead of him and you're like yeah that's that's one of the all-time mess ups in the history of horse racing and then he goes to Newberry he wins a group one race right after so it's like yeah of course um so yeah look I that race is a that is not even a factor a handicapped factor like I that's a total toss race for me um but you know I'm betting deterministic so hopefully it's another bad ride for him on Saturday get get get get get get get underneath horses there get get behind him and and make sure you don't get out that's that's my advice for him on Saturday you know there was you know it's obviously William Buick like I mean he's a great rider so he's like hard to but it's one of those apples be I'm sure afterwards kind of like

1:01:36yeah what what do you think that you know like what were you doing there you know but you know he's obviously you know still has a mountain um again I think maybe that is a little bit of an issue with this horse because he is a horse that they've probably figured out that you go back and even watch that um the last race the York right he likes to be kind of he tucks him in behind horses you know he likes to be on you know tucked under other horses and then he makes his run like it almost gets him going and so maybe that is like a little bit of a you know a double-edged sword where you know it works but until it doesn't yeah yeah exactly too much traffic in your screw well even his last race at newberry he tucked him behind a horse for a long time but the the difference was there was one and there was clear lanes to get out right so you know and you know this comment too it's like it's hard to have a bad trip the epitailer uh turp course given how humongous it is it's also hard to get blocked in a six-horse race too so but I do agree with the comment like it

1:02:38we shouldn't be saying oh we got blocked in but we will see what happens let's just put it that way we'll see but yeah give me notable speech you're going to terminus to either way this is going to be a freaking awesome race to watch unfold as they uh go down the stretch because you know this all respect to to really both horses at this point so um all right let's go to the last one here race 10 the epitailer stakes grade one 750k wound amount of quarter on the turf for Philly's and Mara's three-year-olds and Philly and Mara turf readers cup win in your in a field of eight a little bit smaller filled here but uh speaking of William Buick speaking of Abelbee speaking of good often diamond rain the four-horse at seven to five you got give me another at five to two and see the fire at seven to five to two and then see the fire at seven to two um what do you think of diamond rain I mean certainly is not notable speech but does look tough yeah I'm back on the applebee train here I had to so so by the way we now know who's going to whip the applebee horse that's going to win and so do the speech these other ones that I'm on are definitely going to lose

1:03:41right right so I'm back on applebee here though uh number four diamond rain for me uh look I thought ran just a bang a brace here uh in the epitailer last year and got beat by she feels pretty hey a lot of horses did that's a damn nice horse right and then in the breeder's cup Philly Meriturf got third beaten a lengthen a quarter she feels pretty was second another horse really really good she's not in this race right the first place finisher was Gazora in that day who was huge and has been horrible ever since which is strange but uh that day she was great but anyway came over here to the United States ran two bang up races ran too well to lose could do that again because see the fire is really good so gonna have to beat see the fire but I really like number four diamond rain I think she gets it done this time around really really like this horse yeah I tell you what you know I was kind of on the fence with with the four as far as picking her here and you know I know like she's been good she really hasn't had been bad ever really frankly other than maybe one

1:04:45race but she had trouble breaking through in the big races um and you go and I went and watched I know it wasn't a group you know a group like one two or three in that last race it's just listed stakes but that last race at York the prep for this one going to mile in five sixteenths that was the first time I had seen her where I was like yeah she looks really good now like she just looks like she's developing into a really good horse maybe they thought she was gonna be all long she wins by four and a quarter was striding home lay like just you know you get extending as she went I think she's gonna be really tough here I mean I love the fact that she's got the like you said even though she lost she's got it you know the experience excuse me uh at woodbind she runs well this distance three wins and six starts including a second and a third so yeah I think she's gonna be tough um you know I don't trust her as much as notable speech see it's funny you you know we talked about earlier I thought about playing just straight you know notable speech diamond rain

1:05:48double that's my play yep and you're like well that wouldn't have hit because you know it's kind of jokingly saying because you have deterministic and I'm more like I like notable speech I would be more concerned about the four diamond rain and really not a couple things one because you know like I said she has had trouble winning these big big races and two I think the one in here give me another coming in off three straight wins is dangerous I do too I think this race look I think the last race and I was joking oh that's not gonna come in deterministics winning that race but I think the last race it's the one of the three and I will fall over if it's anybody else you know I'm done saying I'm shocked because it's racing right and so I'm never shocked anymore anything can happen but the one or the three seem pretty darn tough to beat in the ninth this race I do like number four diamond rain quite a bit but I do think there's other ways you can go and like you said give me another three straight wins you know in North America so I do think that that means something a little

1:06:49bit of a home advantage so to speak see the fire is a horse that you know didn't run well at all over here last year at the breeder's cup at the international forums pretty good last two races weren't great but you know has really good races on the resume I could see that horse winning you know I could even see the three that horse has been running against really good company overseas in group one and group two races I might translate pretty well here so I think this is a little bit trickier than the ninth race yeah for sure again I think because yeah because you just have this is a little bit deeper of a field you know yeah see the fire was was bet pretty hard that day when she lost well beaten as well who I think she's like five to one you know one a couple races hasn't looked awesome but since last two in group one type races though obviously against really good horses and certainly you know abudiments of very many hog you know come on like the wells was you

1:07:54know Darius like that's a hell of a field like so to say you got smashed by that field is like not that horse not the worst thing right right so but my problem is like seven to two though I don't know if I want to take seven or two on that horse you know like I wouldn't I think I'd like higher prize and that's what makes this race a little tricky because if you're playing against the four you're not really getting a lot of reward for it because it does unless you're going crazy because you know the one in that eight are still lower prices yeah seven to two maybe you want a little bit more I hear you there um I just I do think it's the second most likely winner though the eight see the fire I like the eight a little bit better than I like the one give me another so I I would tell you to go eight I think if you're gonna go somewhere else or eight or three you know the three I don't know if the three is gonna be 12 to one or not that seems high if the three is 12 to one then that maybe that's the answer that that's your better alternative I mean listen

1:08:59here's the thing like you know I'm I'm gonna go with diamond rain here you know you've got you know I mean all these are are really good races but you go look and just those last three we talked about the summer um you know good off and horse notable speech obviously and then diamond rain I mean these are you know breeders cup winner type I mean obviously no little speech one last year this in diamond rain gets third in the breeders cup feeling a mere turf like these are these aren't just breeders cup win your ends these are you know woodbind is produced and then this is these are races that you know these horses can can win the breeders cup as well oh absolutely I I think I don't think it's out of the question that at least one horse coming out of either the Natalma or the summer is gonna win at the breeders cup right I think the the breeders cup mile winners here right yeah so that's two and then you know fill in mayor maybe you know I mean we we had a horse it was really close in diamond rain last year so yeah I don't think it's out of the question

1:10:01to say you could see you know maybe two to three future breeders cup winners on this card if not more right and maybe maybe they get a sweep of it who knows but this is as I text you this morning I was you know I have not followed woodbind for 50 years but I followed it for 15 to 20 I don't remember a better card than this because the other aspect of it is the other than maybe the ninth race which does seem very cut and dry it's one or the other the rest of these races are also very good betting races as well so you're getting a lot of talent and the betting is pretty good you know Kevin brings up a good point the six what he what is the six doing in this race you know good another good dolphin horse but Jamie Spencer gets the mount for Charlie Johnson but this horse has been bad overseas has gotten smoked the last three starts was decent really going in that got third in the Guinness you know you know a lot of group one places place efforts but those last you know three races

1:11:01beaten five and a half being thirty seven and beaten forty seven yeah I mean like is there something to it like could this horse regain its form it's also a three year old facing older which I thought was odd as well there's a lot of group one and group two you know races on the form but you're right the last three races have left a lot to be desired it's interesting because the race on May 3rd that group one race at new market you know third beaten to a quarter of my true love evolution is two really nice horses so you exit that race and you go okay we've got something here we've got group two and group one placeings as a two year old as well and then it's just it's falling off now the two races the Epson race and the new market race the race is three and two back those are really tough right but still you got a you got a you know think you're gonna run a little bit better than that the horse was 14 to one 28 to one and 25 to one of those last three races so wasn't really expected to do much but boy you wish you'd see a little bit

1:12:05better of an effort yeah I mean you mentioned that race true love race before that I got second to precise as well which was very obviously really good horse but you know things have changed a little bit looks like with it so interesting that you know you got Jamie Spencer you get it's good dolphin who you know comes over with or you know he's gonna enter with like say likes of diamond rain so you know I just said something something to point out I guess is something worth noting so all right you and I are both on the four diamond rain to win the epitome yeah I mean it's a weird spot for sure Kevin I mean I don't know if they're just taking a shot if they're they I mean for every reason they think you know because I was a horse I was running well so um going mile and then since they've stretched the horse out to you know well they went to a mile and a half twice you know it's not been good they ran into one mile race but the sandwich between those was even worse so I didn't really know what's happened it is odd it's it's very odd um I you could find a lot easier spots like Evan said there's a look especially you could find a

1:13:11I think you could find a race restricted to three-year-old somewhere that would make more sense if you wanted to bring her over here that I don't I don't hate that but you know you could find an easier spot yeah all right guys it's gonna do it for us make sure you go to the website at racingdoods.com for all our free picks and premium selections on the products page get the racing dudes premium button on the main menu to learn more again we have Belmont Park coming back so we've a red hot to end the Saratoga Del Mar Mids Kentucky Downs like we were we and then now we're going to go right into Belmont and of course aim our way towards this weekend and and woodbiden and Churchill Downs coming back Caitlin we'll be back soon right so it's a great time to be a premium subscriber and we're getting closer it's hard to believe but getting closer to the breeder's cup and we will have that breeder's cup betting bible available in the next month or so so make sure you go to website at racingdoods.com to learn more on twitter at race center score dudes instagram and facebook you can find all episodes of blinkers off of visiting the podcast page on the website

1:14:15or going to any of the places you'd like to listen to like apple podcast we're on there apple Spotify Google all that good stuff as well as youtube hit that like subscribe and notification button so you are alerted we are live right now and we're live every week for blinkers off what's new ultimate dudes you bet sports is the magic mic show playing today what's going on no magic make sure this week dudes you bet sports was yesterday went over week one of the NFL season and week two the top 25 of college football so lots of look forward to football every single day this week so that's been fun well I guess starting Wednesday I guess we had Monday then Tuesday was off and then Wednesday through the rest of the week so that's fun as well yeah a lot going on with football be back love love that it's back yeah last night was it was fun to have a back of course I missed like half of it with we had fly football Wednesday nights now but so I missed I mean then it's funny like the one

1:15:17of the reps that it was referencing my game was like clearly did not care to be there and he was like oh my he was like on his phone he's like oh my gosh Tim Donald is out the first first series and like dude first of all thank you for telling me also called the called the penalty please but no I mean so that was weird and it got home and it was like just a boring game all around and then it felt like cerebral R2 and then yeah I don't know tonight what is tonight the 49ers and Rams overseas so who knows with those but I mean at least should be a good game the Rams of course through rule favorites see how that pans out but yeah I don't know it's definitely sort of off slow for me last night yeah for me red zone is about the only way I can consume NFL football most of the standalone games are very boring that's just that's my take I don't enjoy it that much that red zone I love Sunday afternoons that's great and there are some standalone games that that live up and are okay but most of them do kind of feel kind of like we saw last night so

1:16:21and then like said today we've got you know the Australia game tonight so who knows but two two teams are very good so hopefully we get a better game tonight yeah the that's the way to do it on red zone because you can just you just that's great that you can find if there is a game you need to be you know that gets late into the game and it's good you're like all right I'll flip over to that and watch that but otherwise you're like yeah I don't mean I so it's my favorite when the chiefs aren't playing like whether they're in the late the late afternoon or you know this week they're money and I so it's like you can just you don't have no stress you know I'm just focused on all the games I don't have to worry about watching just just one game so we'll see but yeah it's so it's bad the early early games are bad like these early season games like teams are they still feels like preseason to me so less less preseason games and the actual players don't play any preseason games or very very limited and I think that's what September football has turned into kind of preseason right but the count but yeah you see some rough rough played we saw it last

1:17:25I was just sloppy and I I don't mind a defensive game but I didn't really think yes the score was low but it was more just these offenses just they're not in sync right now and of course you get darn old hurt I mean that's obviously a big problem I mean regardless of anything that that happened like I mean Patriots should be embarrassed like oh yeah you gotta win that game you you you have you basically got drew lock the whole game and you're up you know double digits at one point late you know in the third second half and you know Drake May throws three picks one what which was unbelievably bad at the end to to seal the game like could at least hide it um yeah just a really bad performance I thought from the Patriots and Drake May. May was awful the whole game I mean the first drive they do end up scoring on the drive but like the first scoring drive I should say the game they run a flip-flick and they've got he's got brown wide open

1:18:27and he under threw him by 15 yards now thankfully he under threw him so bad that brown came back to the ball and the defender kind of runs into him and they call it pass interference and so you know they got the ball in the two yard line but it's like I was kind of foreshadowing like oh god this guy's not not gonna play well tonight because that was so it was bad but he was he was really bad um yeah like I said it it was very boring if he I guess if you had Seattle money line you're happy there or you had the under the under was was the was the was the play there so yeah I'm no shit but I mean I mean if you hadn't Seattle money line you were a little worried oh definitely that game so or all the game frankly because it never looked like they had it even until the end as bad as as bad as the Patriots looked but um we'll see I'm excited you know nonetheless well it's been hotter and shitier so as I felt like football season but hopefully the weather starts to turn bit games will be a little bit better and uh you know we can officially get in the

1:19:27football season so um that's all god anything else Halterman um no not really gonna be a good weekend uh a very excited uh I'm thrilled that OU plays 11 o'clock and so that game will be over by the time the big races start so that's always good I hate when OU's playing and the races are going off the same time yeah get very angry so that'll be nice uh big trip up to the big house so they'll be veriting how that shakes out Ohio State Texas is going to be a fascinating game at 630 so we we've got a jam packed uh Saturday with all the good racing sandwich in between uh those two big games there so it should be a lot of fun all right I got to ask you we've talked about it we haven't actually talked about it in full detail we just kind of talked about it when it happened live but what like I mean what happened in the Michigan game I mean they had like was it was it like a like a riddle like did they get paid like how do how do you how is it that they let that

1:20:30another play happen according to the big 10 the clock that we all see doesn't sync up with the actual clock which I don't buy for a second I've never I I've how many years have you known me and I watch every college football game that I can consume I'm watching right and I've never ever ever heard that ever never said how's that even a thing I I don't think it is so I don't know is that I to me western Michigan very much got screwed out of that game um you know there is a little part of me that goes well to stop another Hail Mary and we would have been talking about it still that I don't think that play ever should have happened I think western Michigan got screwed I don't buy the explanation from the big 10 and it is what it is I mean I think it was a blatant air um say what you will however it went down it went down and I don't I think it was wrong period western Michigan is the real winner of that game and I think it was it was terrible what happened I'd

1:21:33tell you what I don't I don't know who you know the coach is or anything for for western Michigan but I mean obviously I was watching him like the way he handled that all like any handled it well I mean like just the fact like he said I mean you literally just they they gave it you the other team another play I you know and you're about you're on the you're on the cusp of winning your you know one of the biggest wins in program history if not the biggest the biggest period and you have it it's done and they let you they let them have one more play because of you know one second was left and that's the other thing too it wasn't so clear cut because he also had like well when the defenders started his leap out of his out of bounds and then he touched it now the clock stops and it's like whatever um in the way he handled it and just kind of you know shook hands or whatever ran off the field like it is it's pretty it would I mean I know I would have handled it that way yeah they handled it with a ton of class a ton of class you got to give them a ton of credit

1:22:36there some of their guys were distraught on that field and they they they were able to kind of corral them they were able to kind of you know get them off the field before anything happened and and they did a great job and by the way the Mac conference they are filing an appeal they won't do anything but they said look when it comes to replay whether there's a clock discrepancy or not when you are replaying something you are using the clock that's on the television for the replay so even if there was a imaginary clock that had a second left technically that doesn't matter you are using the replay on TV and that was clearly at zero no debate about it so they're you know filing an appeal it's not going to matter but it's bad it's really really bad so yeah well we'll see all how it shakes out up there this week hopefully hopefully there's no bogus situations Oklahoma

1:23:37are in this week and as an oh you fan it's the absolute worst position to be in because everybody wants you to win everybody's betting them everybody think it's going to be a blowout it's still having to go to Michigan to win a game and so there's a lot of pressure for OU to get it done this week and I get why people are betting them why would you not bet OU minus that five and a half after Michigan scored seven points basically against Western Michigan yeah yeah hopefully you know because they obviously if they fall out of the top 25 even though they won and so hopefully OU can solidify that for them because it feels like it's weird it's like unless you're a Michigan fan everybody's like hates Michigan now you know I know Michigan you know like you guys didn't deserve that yeah and you know the rest when that happened whenever like it actually was caught like shit you know like well again I don't when they were replaying it alive the the announcers were like yeah the game's over this this should be a pretty quick decision you know and so again it's like I know there was no

1:24:37that was just bad bad bad bad bad yeah yeah no I it was insane I still can't I let's lucky that it I mean not no offense to Western Michigan I hate it's it sucks for them but they're lucky it's just it was just like first game of season you know and not fucking you know the end of the year the big you know right like one of the huge games pivotal games that's deciding the team going into the called playoffs or not you know so well it you know I actually end up doing that right it might for probably not but what if Western Michigan wins every other game this season could they be a representative from the smaller schools to go how I don't know maybe they'll handle that like a win if it gets to that point but they probably won't though but it very well could I guess you know I don't know it's they should handle this win if that's at the end of the day Western Michigan's probably not going to be in that position and Michigan's I don't think is going to be in a position to be in the the playoffs so you certainly wouldn't think and if they do

1:25:40what what a job they did to get there because that would have been an all-time turnaround yeah no shit I mean I think they're like again they're gonna have everybody against them now every game at some point I think unless you're Michigan so yep hopefully they get the job oh you get the job done this weekend but all right guys it's gonna do it until next time I'm Jared Welch he's Aaron Halterman good luck this weekend thank you for listening to another episode of Blinkers off join our horse racing community at racingdudes.com and follow us on Twitter at racing underscore dudes want to make money betting horses bet with the racing dudes