DECISION: Terry Francona Backs Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds Lineup PLANS Revealed

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1:02Personally, I love watching folks talk a little smack in the NFC South Trash talk chat. You also get an ad free version of your favorite Lockdown show and a whole lot more. You can check it out by tapping the Everyday Your Club link in the show notes. The Cincinnati Reds lineup for opening day is just about set, as we know without a doubt. Who will be heading second? You are locked on red. You're daily Cincinnati Reds Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Stephen Offenbaker. He's Jeff Carr and Happy St. Patrick's Day, Slantcha in advance. Folks, welcome back to Lockdown Reds. We are happy to have you here for today's show that's brought to you by MLB the show. Visit MLBtheShow.com slash locked on and use the code Lockdown to unlock a pack for

2:03use in Diamond Dynasty, available now today on PlayStation, PlayStation 5, Xbox and Nintendo Switch. It's rated E for everyone a little bit later on today's show. We are going to answer the question. Do we have concerns about Andrew Abbott as he has just one more start before opening day to get things right? We're going to talk about that here in just a little bit. We are also going to talk about Jeff Passon and his thoughts on the reds, not only making the postseason, but advancing in the playoffs. Jeff had some things to say that's Passon, not Carr, and Jeff Carr is going to have some things to say as well. Jeff, Jeff, Jeff, Jeff, Jeff is like the Jeffs are pointing at each other. It's like the Spider-Man meme. Where we are going to begin is with the lineup taking shape because Terry Francona was pressed a little bit about who the number two hitter in this lineup is spoiler alert. It's Matt McClain, just like I said, it was going to be. We're going to talk about the Reds lineup, Jeff, because we're getting close. Things are kind of falling into place, and you can look at this lineup now and really

3:07kind of see who the four or five guys are without ever having seen a release of the opening day lineup. Yeah, right now Terry Francona has said Matt McClain is hitting second, and it was interesting because he was even pressed on that here just a few days ago and was asked, you know, so Matt McClain to hold, right? And he's like, yeah, I knew that about four weeks ago. He's been very confident in what he has seen with Matt McClain. And if you look at these statistics, which we tell you not to do when it comes to spring training, but literally every hitting statistics except doubles and triples, installing bases, which is a base for us. It's not hitting the case. The rest of those are Matt McClain. He leads all spring training. Not just the cactus league, both spring training leaks. He is absolutely going wild right now at the plate in such a good way. And we're talking about a guy that we've been hoping to see the 2023 version of him,

4:12Steve, he might be evolving into a better version than even that because he is hitting the pitch that he just absolutely has not been able to hit his very short career. Yeah, from your lips to God's ears, my friend, we want that Matt McClain. Look, you can, you can be excited about what he's doing in spring training and not violate the rules of spring training statistics don't matter because what you're seeing from Matt McClain is he's, he's barreling the ball. He's hitting the ball hard is that batslet comfortable. He's protecting parts of the strike zone that he hasn't been able to protect at least not last year. All of those things matter, all of those looks matter, all of those numbers matter. The overall statistics don't mean anything, but him barreling the ball does him looking comfortable does him being ready to go does all of those things matter. So it's not, it's not us saying, well, you know, if a player is performing badly, just don't look at their stats. But if they're looking good, look at those numbers over there.

5:14No, I don't care. I couldn't tell you right now what Matt McClain's hitting and I don't care. But I know that he's hitting the ball well and I know that he feels good. I know that he looks good and I know that he is performing well. And that's what matters to me. We're going to talk a lot today about guys that are struggling. We're going to get into Andrew Abbott a little bit later in the show somewhere along the way. I'm going to sprinkle in some wisdom about Tyler Stevenson right now. But all of these things are just, they're, they're just numbers that don't mean anything. It's more about going through a process to get ready for opening day. And Matt McClain seems clearly ready to be the number two hitter in this lineup, to be the guy setting the table for Ellie and for Gino and for Spencer Stier. And for all the guys coming after him, I'm excited to watch this lineup in action over the course of 162 games. Yeah, he's done enough to prove he goes back into that number two hole in the lineup. And based on what Gordon Whitmer said in a recent article for the Cincinnati inquire, he said that the opening day lineup will most likely look like this

6:18against Boston Red Sox, left handed pitcher, Gary Crochet leading off and playing center field. You got TJ Freedle hitting second and playing second base, Matt McClain, hitting third at short stuff, LA, the Cruz batting fourth at D. H. A. U. Haneo Suarez, who just hit another home run. I mean, we talked about, are we worried about him? You shouldn't be. And then we are undefeated. We're talking about something and it happens, which is why we're talking about Andrew Rabbit later on, so that hopefully all of that goes away. And then South Stewart is penciled in as the fifth hitter and starting it for his face. I find that at least a little bit interesting, but I'm excited because I feel like he deserves that kind of a look. But to know that the top five of the nine are already set, I mean, I kind of feel like you can just pick other than, you know, moving key Brian Hayes to the sixth five. The other three guys, when it comes to know, I'll be marty Tyler Stevenson and Spencer Steer, whatever already you'll want to have him in six, seven, eight.

7:19Those guys can hit there. You got key Brian Hayes at nine, boom, opening day lineup ready to go. Are you, are you surprised at all? Because I am, you know, Garrett Crochet. Is a left handed pitcher and a very, very good one. Are you surprised that they're going to start TJ Freedle versus Dane Myers who could demolish his lefties? I feel like we're going to end up in a straight platoon for the most part of the year in center field anyway. Is it an opening day thing? Is it like, I think it is. I think it's a little bit of pomp and circumstance like you're right. Like if this were, I don't know, May 13th and they're facing a left handed pitcher from Pittsburgh or something like that. Dane Myers is leading off in plain center field. And then whenever that pitcher gets pulled, they bring it a right handed reliever, they will flip in TJ Freedle for that. And then the lineup just continues to roll. But I think at this juncture, just for opening day and what opening day

8:20means in the city of Cincinnati, they're going to put just a wee bit of strategy for one day to have the man that deserves to be the number one center field around this team. And let me ask you this also. I know you said you sound excited for South Stewart to get a look at the five spot. Are you surprised it's not Spencer steer there? A little bit, to be honest with you, I think Spencer Sears looked pretty good this spring, but I think that South Stewart has put in so much work. And I think that this is Terry Franco in acknowledging just how hard he has worked to get this opportunity. It was clear, after September, he was going to get a good look and spring training to be on the opening day roster, to be a starting player for this lineup, but he did so much more than I ever expected him to do. And I think Terry Francona also probably had some expectations and those were probably exceeded as well. So I think that this is going to be a bit of a celebration. If he does struggle early on, maybe they bench or not bench him, but they

9:24move them down, move Spencer steer up. But I kind of like I said, I'm experienced, right? Because Spencer steer has got to be hitting six then. If if South is batting, Spencer steer has got to be hitting six. And then I think I'm batting Tyler Stevenson seventh. Now, you know, we were messaged on Twitter X about, you know, are you guys going to talk about the poor spring training that Tyler Stevenson is having? Okay, it's not great. And but once again, I don't care about the spring statistics very much. Just like I don't know what Matt McClain's batting right now. I didn't know what Tyler Stevenson's batting average was until that comment forced me to go look and yeah, his slash line is horrific. It's 154 267 231 out in good year. But guys, that's 30 played appearances. That's 30 played appearances. That doesn't mean anything. And what's your alternative? Are you going to hand the starting job to Jose Trevino out of the gate on the opening day? We know what that looks like.

10:25We know what he does over a long period of time. Jose Trevino's great and short burst. But if you leave him out there long enough, he's going to get exposed. So no, I am not worried about Tyler Stevenson. I think that's going to also sort itself out again, 30 played appearances. I'm batting him seventh in this lineup. There's one question about Tyler Stevenson. And I know that we can answer this. Is he healthy? It's healthy opening day catcher. There we go. Opening day catcher. When it comes to spring training, that is the key thing with all of this. And I find it intriguing because this plays into what Jeff pass and had to say about the Cincinnati Reds because somebody at ESPN finally got it right when they were talking about the Cincinnati Reds. I'll be at one of the big things that this year hinges on is somebody we've had some injury or some sort of health questions about. We'll discuss that coming up next.

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13:35You got to check out the lock down reds every day or club. Go to lockdownreds.supercast.com and by the way, you can use the promo code March right now to get a free month. And you can join the locked on every day or bracket pool. This is for all of the every day or cross locked on. And you could win some great prizes. Go to lockdownreds.supercast.com to learn more about all that great stuff. All right, Steve. There was a fantastic article written by Jeff Passan as it pertains to all 30 major league baseball teams. And the only reason that I really liked it is because he had good things to say about our Cincinnati Reds. And we're going to start with the best of the things that he had to say. And that is the reds have the talent to be one of the better teams in the national league. And you know, as long as everything's kind of going good, whenever hunter green returns, the Cincinnati Reds could win a playoff series, not only make the postseason,

14:39but win a series. Jeff Passan is buying the 2026 Reds at a rate that most others aren't. And I'm I'm here for it. I absolutely love to see it. You know, I see somebody from ESPN saying nice things about the reds. And I immediately see the Jeff of is this even legal? I didn't know that was something that could happen. No, listen, passing a spot on here. If you read that, you know, he talked about, you know, A. E. Hanger Swarris and his home run contributions. He talked about the the wrecking crew that a green ladolo abbot, three pitchers in a row, short series postseason look would be very difficult to deal with. I love what he has to say here. I love that it's getting some national recognition. Obviously, the reds have to go out and deliver on this. But it supports what you and I have been saying basically since the red sign, you know, and that is they have now addressed the needs of this team in such a way that this team can finally go out as a whole unit and compete.

15:41It's no longer squinting. It's no longer hoping, you know, MVP 2026 was going to be hope. And that is different now. The red successfully changed that narrative. So I look at this and I'm glad to see national recognition for it because this team is built to win this division. And I know that's hard. Listen, guys, everybody take a breath. Stop typing. Stop typing in the comment section. Hear me out. I know that's hard, but this team is built to compete in this division right now. They are going to give the cubs and the brewers or run for their money. They're going to be able to be relevant in this division all the way through the end. And that's where they needed to be this year. That's how this team needed to be constructive and to the front office credit. They did. This is going to be a fun team to watch. We're going to be dug in and watching meaningful baseball all the way through to the end of the season. I am here for it. I think the national guys are excited about it. It's, you know, it's an extra team they get to talk about that they haven't been able to talk about in a while with some exciting players with some guys that are our fan friendly fun to watch players that they're going to get to talk about at the national level now is not just going to be all, all Otani all the time.

16:49So this is good. Right. And I want to circle back to like some of the points that he made about why the reds could win a playoff series in just a moment. But for a moment, the thing that I want to focus on is the fact that he says at the top of this graph where he's talking about the reds and why they can be good this year. He says why the season hang hinges on chase burns. It's and he goes on to say it's quite interesting to say that an entire playoff worthy teams hopes hinges on a rookie pitcher. But that's just how good burns can be. And I think it's interesting because we talked about this a lot yesterday. So we're not going to rehash all of the weird news when it comes to the messaging surrounding chase burns. Check out yesterday's episode for that. But he did throw a bullpin session on Wednesday. And all reports where he looked good, he recovered well. And he seemingly is not as far off track as some of the other statements would have us to believe.

17:55And it's interesting because C Trent came up with this article in the athletic that says burns is starting in triple A. Brandon Williamson's the number fifth number five starter immediately Charlie and a couple of other guys were like, ah, not so fast. That decision has not been made. That is all conjecture. And I feel like chase burns is still going to be in the starting rotation like we talked about yesterday. And I still feel like he's going to provide the kind of value that guys like Jeff pass in and so many other people have talked about. This is not just a boy Jeff and Steve really like a reds player because while they play for the reds. This is lots of other scouts are looking at chase burns and going, this guy is really thinking good. And you're going to want to watch him pitch. And I am excited to see him pitch in Cincinnati for a majority of the season. I'll be if they're going to have to play with Zinnings a little bit, but I think that that's where the key of hunter green coming back in July. Ready to go will help manage all of that.

18:56I want to tell you how much I believe in chase burns two things Jeff thing number one. Everyone needs to stop with the move chase burns to the bullpen talk. That is not going to happen. He's pitched 40 big league games. We don't know anything except that he has elite stuff and he's going to figure the rest of this out. How confident am I that he's going to figure the rest of these things out. Jeff the 2028 season. I think chase burns is your opening day starter in Cincinnati and hunter green will be the number two. That's where chase burns stuff is going right now. That is the trajectory that chase burns on. Write it down, book it. He's going to compete for the opening day slot in 2028. Hey, so good though, like it's it's and I understand you can watch the guy. His mechanics look a little herky jerky, but quite frankly. So we're like guys like Tim wins. It comes and that's how people are talking about chase burns is the maximum effort conversation.

19:59Right. This is this is the maximum effort conversation. Maximum effort pictures when they're in their prime, when they're good, they are elite. Now, when it goes, it goes. But while they are elite, oh man, are they fun to watch? But I don't understand this like trend and this is not just this is not just Reds fans. This is every team's fans of like trying to ascertain the exact moment whenever a starting pitcher becomes a relief pitcher and trying to call it and things like that like chase burns upside. According to scouts, according to prospect experts guys that watch prospects closely every single year, chase burns is an ace level potential pitcher. So why would you take a guy who could be an ace level dude for you for 200 innings and say, you know what though? If he only threw 60 innings, like that'd be cool, right?

21:00No. Why do we do that? This happened with the roadest Chapman and so ever since it happened with the roadest Chapman, Reds fans want to do this and they're like, okay, well, Johnny Quatos has been heard a lot. Maybe he should be moved to the bullpen. You know what Luis Castillo sometimes, sometimes Luis Castillo, maybe we had to move in the bullpen. You know, Hunter Green. Hunter Green. Hunter Green. Let's move Hunter Green to the bullpen. All of those guys have since proven that they're good starting pitchers and I'll be it. We would like to see Hunter be more healthy. But still people have moved on to chase burns now. Who's next? Like Chase Petty. We're going to mark Jose front. And you and you skipped over and you skipped over all of the calls to send Nicolodolo to the bullpen with Nicolodolo to the bullpen, right? Yeah. Yeah. It's pick a starting pitcher for some reason. This feels like a narrative we must go through every off season or spring training because at some point people run out of things to talk about and I don't get it. But no, I'm with you. There's absolutely no thought of this with me.

22:01I think that that is a ridiculous thought process. But going back to something that Jeff Passen said about the reds chances of advancing in the postseason, I think it's amazing that Jeff Passen brings that part of this up. He marks a Eugenio Suarez. And Steve, did he say that Eugenio Suarez is coming in to be the absolute leader and captain and Superman and everything that this lineup needs? Oh, Eugenio Suarez peppering great American ballpark with home runs again. Because that's all he's got to do and you know what he's done in the World Baseball Classic. Exactly. All right. He is ready and he is going to fill that role so well. And if you're wondering who is going to be that leader, who is going to be that captain, who is going to be that guy that does all of those other things, Terry Frenkona just told you he's batting seconds in the lineup.

23:03That was another thing to him. We didn't get to that. But there was a quote from Terry Frenkona talking about Matt McLean. He's like, he's going to bat second. He's going to bat third. I'd loved to bat him second, third and fourth and fifth and sixth and one through nine basically. I think he was just like nine Matt McLean's basically told you he put in the sea on that chest without, you know, actually saying he's putting that sea on that chest. I don't know that they're going to do that ever again, but if they do, it's going to be Matt McLean. No, I agree with that. 100%. All right, Jeff, we've got one more person we've got to talk about. Are we concerned? Are we not concerned? I think you and I both land in the same place on this, but we're going to find out together because coming up, we're going to talk about Andrew Abbott spring training and do the numbers matter. Find out right after this. What if sports were traded like markets? Now you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets. It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long.

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25:08NL Central. I think that they're getting disrespected every which way, every way you look at them. Five to one. The pirates are at six to one. There is no way that those teams are that close when it comes to the end of this season. And I think that the reds get a real shot to win the division. So throw some money over on five to one odds for the reds to win the NL Central over on Fandall today. And like I mentioned, you can get into some college basketball, same game parlay profit boost action just end of faddle.com right now to get started that's fandall.com fandall play your game. But I need to get this after that. Thanks for watching us here on YouTube. We appreciate you guys so much. If you can't watch us on YouTube though, we are on every single audio podcasting platform that's out there. If you find one, we're not on and you need us there a message Jeff, he can probably make it happen for you. And that is where the every day or club lives. If you would like ad free uninterrupted locked on reds without any ads at all, that's the

26:12audio feed. That's the every day or club. The link for that is down in the show description, $5 a month, $50 a year. Use the promo code March, first month is free. You've got nothing to lose. Sign up today. All right, Jeff, I have spent this entire show saying springs, training stats don't matter and I don't care. Are we concerned about how Andrew Abbott has performed out in good year? Once again, I can't tell you what his overall statistics are. I went and pulled that box score from his last outing and boy was it ugly, two innings of just getting his brains bashed in. So to speak, but there are a lot of peripheral numbers even in those spring training statistics that say everybody relax, you know, to quote your favorite sports personality Aaron Rodgers, R-E-L-A-X, relax. Those numbers tell us a story, but they don't tell us the whole story. The entire defense behind him in that start was a bunch of guys that are not going to sniff a major league baseball field this season with the exception of like Nate Low was in

27:16that game, I think. But everybody else was guys that are just guys taking up spots. I'm not worried about this. I know that Andrew Abbott's frustrated will get to his quotes. He had some things to say about it. He's saying the right things still yet that, you know, yeah, I realize things aren't quite there yet. But we're going to get there. We're going to keep working at it. Things are starting to click. We're starting to get there. I believe him and I don't think anybody knows better than Andrew Abbott. How Andrew Abbott is feeling and how things are coming along for Andrew Abbott. I'm willing to not panic and let's get the opening day and let's see where we're at. I feel like you remember like whenever the rock was doing his wrestling thing like early on and he did the whole eyebrow raising thing and I can't do it. Like I've always tried to do that. But it's like as things were, yeah, like that, as things were happening, he would raise the eyebrow more and more and more and more. Mine's that like a raised eyebrow of like level half, like I'm thinking about it.

28:18I'm thinking about it because when it comes to his performance, it's not the statistics. It's not the results. It's the proximity to opening day in which this is happening because I kind of marked this point as the all right. He's going to turn it on the results and I'm paying a little bit more attention to him because he has one more start after this as a tune up for opening day. And so no, I'm not going to go crazy about the fact that he gave up eight earn runs on eight hits and three walks. I'm not going to go crazy about the fact that his ERA is 13.8 right now. I'm not going to go crazy about that stuff. But what I am just slightly concerned about is the proximity to games that matter and the fact that this happened now. You know, here's a, here's a stat that matters to me, Jeff. And the last start for Andrew Abbott, he threw 76 pitches.

29:19He's not hurt. He's healthy. His arm feels okay. He's recovering nicely. He's going to make one more start before opening day. Probably throws 80 to 90 pitches in that. I would like to see better results. I'm not saying I don't want to see better results. But it's also spring training and everything is different in good year. Everything is outside of the normal of the routines. They're facing guys. They don't normally face their throwing pitches. They wouldn't normally throw. I'm not ready to panic. I'm not even concerned. I know that's crazy to say. I trust Andrew Abbott. He says he's getting there. I think Andrew Abbott of all the pitchers in this rotation has always been transparent. He's always been honest about how he feels and what's going on. He's the one guy that when, you know, he exceeded his games and innings count. He told you straight out, yeah, my legs are gone. I don't have my legs are gone. I'm tired. Like, he's completely transparent with how he feels.

30:19And if there was a problem, he would say so. I think just things still need a little bit more time to click. He's going to get there. And to your point, he had some of those things to say after the game on Monday. He said, quote, I'm just overall frustrated. Results aren't what I want them to be, honestly. I feel like my process has been there. I feel like my work in the bullpen sessions has been there. Kind of just waiting out the storm, waiting to see when it'll click. But today, mechanically, it clicked. And then, you know, everything I've been working on with off-speed pitches, with cutters, with changeups, was okay, I think it could be better, obviously, but I'm still waiting on it. And to his point, the velocity, it was just like a scoosh, right? Like, I love that word, scoosh, you know, it was like a few tenths of a mile an hour off of his season average. So he's right there. He has given up a lot of hard contact this spring, but like we mentioned, the infield,

31:23we come on, the starting infield for Monday's game was Nate Lowe at first base. He had Alexander Vargas at second base, which I think there's like two people I know of who know who that guy is. Garrett Hampson at shortstop, who has already been told he's not making the opening day roster, and PJ Higgins at third base, who has been one of the third and fourth catchers first baseman on this team. They played him at third base. He's another guy that's been told he's not making the opening day roster. So essentially, the infield was made up of a bunch of guys, like he said. So if there was a ground ball, it's getting past period, playing and simple. And he was given up a couple of ground balls. There were a couple of singles that were hit. There were a few home runs as well. But like for me, that feeds into the fact that throughout spring training, the batting average up balls and play against Andrew Rabbit is well over 400. It's very close to 500 when half the balls that you allow into play ball for hits.

32:25I don't care who you are, they ain't going to be some good results with that. It's just not going to happen. And I think that's kind of where we are right now with Andrew Rabbit, where it's like, if you name something that is concerning, I can name something to you that's going to put that flame out, there's still, I just, I just need to see a little bit more. In that next start, whoever it's against, whoever's playing in the field wants to see less walks, things like that, and I'll feel fine. But I did, I did think about it for a minute longer than I've been thinking about some spring training performances to this point. Well, I look forward to see what he does in his final spring training tune up. I think it's going to be better. I trust things are going to continue to click. He's going to work on stuff between now and then I think it's going to get better. But you can rest assured that Jeff and I are going to break it all down and have you covered for it. That's going to do it for this edition of Locked On Reds. Thanks as always for making us your first listen each and every day. For the audio folks, go make Locked On MLB your second. Listen, Sully's got you covered over there with Major League Baseball from a national

33:27perspective. And Mike Stanton, former Reds pitcher, Mike Stanton has you covered as well with Major League Baseball from a player's perspective, both of those shows in the Locked On MLB feed. For the video folks, stick around. We're going to redirect you to Locked On's first ever 24-7 National YouTube channel where all of the experts of the Locked On Network are talking ball 24 hours a day, seven days a week, giving you your sports fix. Jeff and I'll be back in your feeds tomorrow post St. Patrick's Day celebration. Go have fun. Be safe. We'll see you right back here. We'll gather up all the news, the notes, the rumors, the reports and the information to keep you locked on reds every single day. Can you smell what the Steve is cooking? No.