Crop Tour: DISAPPOINTING Yield Potential in South Dakota and Ohio

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉

🚀 Soybeans Rally Hard: Nov26 beans jumped nearly 24 cents to $12.16/bu — the highest close since late July — fueled by excessive Corn Belt rainfall fears, a strong NOPA crush report, and rising crude oil. Corn also gained ~6 cents to settle near $4.90/bu on Dec26, while wheat traders took profits despite Black Sea shipping worries lurking in the background. 🌧️💰

📊 Crop Conditions Slip: US corn conditions dipped to 60% good-to-excellent (below the 5-year average of 62%), and soybeans slid to 61% good-to-excellent as well. Spring wheat bucked the trend, improving to 52% G/E with harvest racing ahead of schedule at 41% complete! 🌾

🏭 NOPA Crush Report – Record July: Soybean crush hit a record for the month at 216.65 million bushels, up 11% YoY, though it missed trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks crashed to a 9-month low of 1.36 billion lbs — the lowest July level on record — signaling red-hot demand for soy products! 🛢️📉

🚢 Export Inspections – Mixed Bag: Corn shipments surged to a 10-week high at 75 million bushels (+82% YoY!), while soybean shipments disappointed at just 10 million bushels (-46% YoY) with zero activity from China. Wheat exports beat expectations too, climbing 22% YoY to 18 million bushels! 🇨🇳❌

🧪 Phosphate Makes a Comeback: Moroccan phosphate returned to the US for the first time in 5 years, with 54,000mt landing in New Orleans after countervailing duty relief. Don't expect a price crash though — global phosphate supply remains extremely tight, with roughly two-thirds constrained worldwide! ⚗️💵