COVID-Style Lockdowns Making a Comeback Amid Energy Shortages From Iran War

0:00It looks like COVID style lockdowns are slowly making a comeback. This time, it's not due to a virus, though, but rather, it's because of the Iran War, or more specifically, because of the situation currently unfolding over in the strait of Hormuz. So many tankers that are carrying both oil as well as gas have been blocked by the IRGC, the countries are now both asking as well as mandating people to work from home. For instance, over in Denmark, you had their energy minister nearly big citizens to stop driving, telling Danes to please, please, please, not drive a car unless it's absolutely necessary. Here's what he said. Quote. What the Danes should please, please, please do is if there is any energy consumption that you can do without, if it is not strictly necessary to drive the car, then don't do it. He further added during that very same statement that the situation over in Iran is basically forcing Denmark to dip into their oil reserves, and he added that by not driving your car when it's not absolutely necessary, it's not only good for your wallet, but also good

1:00for the entire country. Quote. Firstly, it can be felt in the private wallet, and secondly, it can help stretch our reserves so that they can last longer. Now, that was an example of a country giving a suggestion, however, over in Southeast Asia, the governments of several countries there have gone a lot further, because, frankly, those countries depend a lot more on imported oil from the Middle East, somewhere between 60 and 95% dependent, depending on which country you're looking at. And so Thailand, for instance, they have ordered their civil servants to use the stairs instead of the elevator, to work from home instead of coming to the office, to set their air conditioners to a cool 80 degrees Fahrenheit, to cancel almost all international travel, and government employees must wear short-sleeved shirts rather than business suits. The Thai government added that if the situation continues too much further, more stringent measures will have to be implemented. Quote. The government may consider mandatory measures, including dimming advertising signs at shops, cinemas, and businesses, and closing gas stations at 10pm.

2:00Now, if that doesn't sound too bad, that's because Thailand is an interesting case when it comes to energy in Southeast Asia, because they do actually produce a lot of their own energy domestically. However, their economy has grown so large in the last several decades that their energy needs have naturally grown in tandem, and they've been relying more and more on imports from the Middle East. Quote. Nearly 68% of Thailand's energy needs are met from natural gas. Over half of its liquefied natural gas is sourced from domestic production in the Gulf of Thailand, while 35% comes from imports, including 13% from neighboring Myanmar. For your reference, according to publicly available data, aside from the liquefied natural gas that they get from Qatar and the UAE, roughly 50% of Thailand's crude oil imports pass through the strait of hormones. Vietnam, though, has it a lot worse, with roughly 80-85% of their crude oil passing through the strait. And the Vietnamese government is, likewise, calling for a work from home policy. Quote. Vietnam's trade ministry has called on local businesses to encourage their employees

3:01to work from home as part of efforts to save on fuel amid supply disruptions and price surges triggered by the Iran War. And besides having people work from home, they're also removing tariffs on imported fuel until the end of April in order to increase potential supply from other sources. Now, I've read that doing so will hurt their state budget by roughly $38 million, but the communist Vietnamese government has deemed it necessary to do so, quote, in order to support businesses in proactively securing their supply sources, contributing to stabilizing the domestic petroleum market and ensuring energy security. Then you have the Philippines, which is probably in the most vulnerable position given the fact that upwards of 96% of their oil imports come from the Middle East and therefore pass through the strait of her moods. And while at the moment at least they aren't pushing a work from home policy, they have instituted a four-day work week, quote, civil servants in the Philippines have begun working four days a week as the government of the net fuel importing nation seeks to reduce

4:02its energy use. In-person meetings and visits will also be reduced, and the standard thermostat reading will be set at 24 Celsius, which is roughly 75 degrees Fahrenheit. The government hopes to reduce energy consumption by 10% to 20%. Their energy secretary also added that they only have enough fuel supply left to last them until the end of April. Hopping along though over a good stretch of land, you have Pakistan, which is much like the Philippines in a very, very vulnerable position right now. And they're acting accordingly, instituting work from home policies, fuel quotas, and even school closures, quote, in light of the 10th situation in the Middle East and the possibility of an energy crisis, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif announced a nationwide policy in effect immediately, declaring three weekly holidays for government and private offices, a work from home arrangement for 50% of employees and two weeks of school closures, just two weeks to slow the spread of oil in the economy. I joke, but it's serious. I think we all remember what two weeks led to back in the year 2020.

5:05This statement though, it continued to list out some other closures that the Pakistani government will be implementing, quote, government vehicle fuel quotas will be cut by 50% with 60% of vehicles temporarily grounded. Cabinet members, ministers, advisors, and special assistants will forego salaries. Lawmakers will face a 25% pay cut and non-salary expenditures across departments will be reduced by 20%, purchases of vehicles, furniture, and air conditioners are banned, foreign visits by federal ministers, advisors, senior officials, and provincial governors are restricted, online meetings are encouraged, 50% of staff will work from home except for essential services, and offices will operate four days a week with an extra weekly holiday. Schools will be closed for two weeks, and higher education institutions will shift to online classes. So that is, thus far at least, that of all the countries the most serious. It makes sense, given the fact that Qatar and the UAE account for roughly 99% of Pakistan's LNG imports. So they are literally, at the moment, at least, cut off from their energy source.

6:07However, let's wait and see how the whole global situation develops. We're now only three weeks into the war. Let's see how many other countries can hold out for another three weeks. Now some notable countries to watch out, besides the ones that we already went through in today's episodes, are the following, and I'm going to be basing it on the amount of energy they import from the Middle East that passes through the straight of Hormuz. You have Bangladesh, India, China, Japan, as well as South Korea. Some of those countries get 70% or more of their oil imports from the Middle East, and so they'll have to really scramble to find a solution of the current situation doesn't sort itself out soon. And if they can't find a solution, they might also have to begin implementing some of these COVID style lockdown policies. Or rather, I guess we should have a new name for them, these work from home gas policies. If you'd like to go through my research notes for today's episode, I'll be throwing them down into the description box below. You can find them all down there, which is, of course, down the description box where I below those like and subscribe buttons, both of which I hope you smash so the episode

7:09can be picked up by the algorithm and shared out to ever more people. Thank you so much for that. And then, until next time, I'm your host, Roman from the Epic Times. Stay informed and most importantly, stay free.