Could more cattle cause record beef prices to drop? Ranchers say it’s not that simple

It’s never been so expensive for Americans to buy a steak or hamburger, but cutting those costs requires ranchers like Stephanie Hatzenbuhler to raise more cattle—and that's not an easy ask. For a host of reasons, Hatzenbuhler and other ranchers across the country are reluctant to grow the national herd—now its smallest in more than 75 years—and until they do so, demand will outweigh supply, and beef prices will likely remain high. Adding cattle makes sense for some ranchers, but others are struggling to stay afloat with the cattle they have, Hatzenbuhler said. Hatzenbuhler will make her choices as cows give birth to about 700 calves this spring on her family's Diamond J Angus ranch on more than 2,000 wind-swept acres west of Bismarck, North Dakota. Does she opt to increase her herd, or does she offset the new arrivals by selling an equal number of cattle to meat processors? The national herd size isn't the only factor that determines what beef costs at the grocery store. Still, the dwindling number of cattle is a key reason the average price of all uncooked ground beef in the U.S. was $6.86 per pound in March, 3 cents off the record high set in February, according to federal statistics. That price in March is up nearly 48% from March 2021. The U.S. cattle herd reached a high of 132 million head in 1975, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and that figure has gradually fallen to 86 million this year. Thanks to changes in cattle genetics and feeding techniques, ranchers now produce far more meat from each head of cattle, so despite the much smaller herd, the country's beef production hit a record 28.4 billion pounds in 2022, said Tim Petry, a North Dakota State University livestock marketing specialist. About 26 billion pounds of beef are expected in 2026. About 2.5 billion pounds of beef were exported to other countries in 2025, and the tight remaining supply, along with the high demand, has caused record prices. Ranchers acknowledge the higher prices, but they face plenty of challenges weighing against growing herds, especially from drought. This article was provided by The Associated Press.