China's Rare Earth Export Halt: When Supply Chain Leverage Becomes a Market Weapon

0:00This is Invest Talk from KPP Financial. Helping investors make sense of the markets one day at a time. Here's your host Justin Klein. Good afternoon fellow investors and welcome back to another week of Invest Talk. This is our Monday, September 14th, 2026 edition of Invest Talk. It is going to be a wild week. We already had a very interesting kickoff with the news over the weekend around. I see if he concerns and we have the Fed meaning coming up in just a couple of days. So this promises to be a very explosive week in markets. Now I'm Justin Klein and my job here today and every day is helping you come a better investor. Not just give you the headlines why the market move today or what to look out for. What to what risk there are in markets, what opportunities we're seeing, et cetera.

1:05It's really about instilling the right mindset for you guys so that you can make better decisions with your money consistently. So you're not chasing headlines, you're not chasing performance. You're just chasing good solid investments. That have good risk versus reward and can help you achieve your long term goals. That's what money in general is all about. We want to be able to use it. It's not like you just save it, never touch it. There are ways to think about how to save and how to spend and how to invest. It's called Invest Talk, but anything money related we are here to speak on. And speaking of that, quick heads up. Market Count is for October 24th. You're invited to join the KPP team and guest experts for in person retirement summit. It is free, but seating is limited. And you must pre register at investtalk.com. This is an in person event.

2:06And then we do a lot of webinars. We're getting back to it. We used to do a lot of in person events back pre COVID. Now it's their first real live in person event. We're excited for it. It is an Irvine, California. Three of charge, but once again, seating is very limited. We're going to hit a limit at some point and then we're going to be waitlisted. So get in before that happens. Now, just a bit and I'll talk about today's mark performance and run down some show topics. But first as usual, we'll tackle this first color question now. My question is on the stock. UHT universal health realty income. I was just wondering what your thought would be. And again, this is Steve from Virginia. Thank you. All right, Steve from Virginia. Let's take a look at you. H T universal health realty income. It operates a real estate investment trust which provides health care and human service related services.

3:07Okay. So the first thing that sticks out especially for anybody looking to buy a rate for the most part is the income. And it does have a pretty good yield 7.3%. Now in this environment, rates are higher. So the red flag, you know, higher rates aren't as big of a red flag as they had been in the past. But anything, you know, 6, 7% or more is probably going to be a bit of a red flag and saying is this high yield really worth it is sustainable. Now, I'm looking at the numbers here. Free cash flow is positive. That's good. But it's only positive by about $48 million. I started a roll over funds for operation. Have moved higher, but they've been all over the place back in 2019 is $1.38. And for everyone out there, funds for operation is effectively like the earnings per share for a regular company funds for operation is how you measure.

4:12The income from these properties for a rate any type of a rate. Okay. So just think of funds for operation kind of like earnings per share. So it's $1.38 in 2019. What the $7.92 cents in 2021, then down to $1.11 in 2023. Then back up last year to $3.44. And this year, $351.61 expected next year. So you're seeing it flatten out at that level. I would imagine here there was some sort of a merger acquisition. I have to go back and look at that history. This name that's certainly falling from grace back in. Let's see, pre-COVID. It was moving higher in a significant way. I was on $130 plus per share. Then it fell in that and now it's down to $41 per share. Well, it's looking at dividend. Parasia is 214%, which is kind of high. It's different has continued to go up. So it does feel confident. It can pay that dividend.

5:14I just don't have a ton of confidence, mainly because of the debt. Long-term debt is right around $400 million. And that continues to march higher and higher every single year for the past five plus years. So it's deluding shareholders effectively in order to pay this dividend. So don't think that this is a clear low risk investment. It's higher risk. But once again, it is cash flow positive. It does have pretty good profitability 12.5% return equity, which for a reading is pretty good. Overall, I don't like the risk versus reward, but I could see the argument for it. So if you're willing to take a lot of risk, get that 7% yield, then it might be for you. If you think this is a low risk 7%, then absolutely, this is not risk-free. There's not the name for you.

6:15No way if, let's see. Bit of great show on Friday. We're looking at the story about world food prices. At a four-year high, food inflation already baked into the CPI report. Is it? We talked about that. As well as answer questions on Cisco. The color asks about Cisco. And if you happen to miss it, go check it out. That's where we get every show. It's the following best talk. Wherever you get your podcast. There will be a lot of ground to cover. Over the next 45 minutes or so. And here's what we have. Plenty of time permitting. Our main focus point is about China's rare earth export halt. China's supply chain leverage is becoming a market weapon. Chinese rare firms are starting to halt US shittmets. What might that mean for supply chains? Both around the world, especially here in America. For things like electric vehicles, defense systems. And what's sectors will ultimately be impacted.

7:17So we're going to talk about that. We have other topics on the docket as well. One is in regard to interest rates. One of the. One of the best investors of all time. No, not warm about it. Stanley drunken Miller. Who used to work with Fed chair Kevin Worsh. Said in a private audience recently that he actually thinks bar and costs are a little low. Despite pressure from the White House to lower rates further. So what does he think rates should be? Look at that. Also. We're on the midst of Fed week. And the Fed has kind of two decisions here. Either. Gains some credibility with the markets by raising rates.

8:17Or not and suffering even higher inflation. We're going to take a look at the trade offs of the Fed decision coming up later this week. We also have voice bank calls. One is regards to investment in land in timber and then lamb research LR CX. And of course, we have questions that came in via the comment section on invest talk on the best talk YouTube channel. So we'll get to those as well. But we're going to do a quick break. Please remember you can call anytime and leave your question on the invest like voice bank. And if you're listening via live stream or possibly on AM 1220 in the Bay Area, you can call right now at 8088 chart. Next comment on today's market activity. It's official. Total lifetime downloads for the invest talk podcast are now more than 63 million. Justin Klein is here now taking your calls live.

9:18Invest talk 888 99 chart. Let's go take a look at the market today. It was a no, we're all a down day, but certainly mixed overall. You know, the S&P down about half percent NASDAQ down a little more than half percent the Dow down a little more than a quarter percent. Really the losses were heavily concentrated in large and mid cap tech, a limit growth call it, but certainly tech related on the back of news over the weekend that. And it was an essay from Anthropic CEO Dario Omade calling for the slowing of the improvement in an AI worrying that it could be becoming dangerous and maybe wipe out human civilization in a number of years. So we talked about really dialing back the growth and embedding third party evaluators into the system.

10:30And that certainly caused the gap down. We did rally for most of the day. So it wasn't that bad of a loss overall, but you did had some major losses in names like Nvidia down 3.3% a lot of the product manufacturing. Like semiconductor manufacturing companies like a land research or applied materials, those were down considerably. You had names like corning down 13% what else micron down 5, broadcom down about 5. So a lot of the big winners from AI were down anywhere from 4 to 8% for the most part. And that's what really dragged down the market as a whole on top of that you did have the Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan there you got Moynihan. He talked a lot about how trading revenue is likely to be flat over in the third quarter over the second quarter. And so slow down of growth there.

11:31You saw a big of America down 5% more. It's down the down 3.6 goldman down about 4% on the day. So trading revenue anything around. Investment related activity certainly drop these are optimistic on bank net interest margin. However, so your traditional banks weren't hurt as bad like a city grew up going on to Wells Fargon at 1.7, etc. So anything that's kind of heavily more investment focus investment bank focused that certainly took it on the chin. So those things really dragged down the market overall you did have some strength out of software names like service now up 7% crowd source up 13% on the day sales forced down about 5% or up about 5% on the day. That's where the green lived mostly in this market for the day and health care also at a decent day. So pretty mixed reaction in the markets but because it's so tech heavy really dragged down those major indices on the bond market side 10 year yield hit over 5% for the first time since 2023.

12:43So those higher rates are starting to I think worry especially the equity markets higher cost of capital. So I talked about on Friday at the end of the show so that continues to be a worry. He'll drop out one to three basis points on the short and dollar next up 0.4% gold down 1.3% silver now 1.6 Bitcoin up 2.4 and WTI up 1.3 off the best levels. Mainly it was up though because there was supposed to be a meeting between Iran and the Gulf Arab states in a month to discuss the straight of our moves blockade and that was indefinitely postponed so clearly there's not a lot going on on that front. So we'll see how that goes but that was the market today very interesting start of a very interesting potentially volatile week. It is it is the Fed Fed week that will be a big market mover on Wednesday but we're also the midst of option expiration week that also tends to be a volatile week as well.

13:46So stay tuned for a lot of market movement for the week of September 14th 2026 now we're heading into a quick break. Voice Bank never closes so it's open 24 7 so you can leave your finance and investment question anytime on 8 to 8.99 chart and it will continue after this break. Investing can be daunting and doing it all by yourself can be unmanageable. The best time to get a second opinion is before disaster strikes not after if you've built a portfolio over the years but aren't sure whether it still fits where your headed KPP financial can help. Our team can review your current investments identify potential risks or gaps and give you a clearer picture of where you stand schedule your free portfolio review at invest talk dot com.

14:47Let's talk a little bit about Stanley drunken Miller close ally of the current Fed chair Kevin Warsh used to work together. He was speaking to an audience privately just the last week and there was some interesting revelations from that speech and maybe being a close ally to Kevin Warsh could give some insight into the way Kevin Warsh might be thinking. So the most interesting takeaway from that speech was that drunken Miller believes that us bar and costs remain a little low. And that monetary policy was actually loose in that if anybody said that they were restrictive they were ridiculous once again this is going to be from Stanley drunken Miller one of the best investment investors of all time.

15:53One of the best macro thinkers when you say macro you're talking about broader economic trends that's macro micro is you know individual company sectors etc he's very very good at the big picture. If you're doing this for decades so he's saying that ray cuts are no longer needed he says quote I believe in common sense all you have to do is look at asset prices around the world in quote. So basically saying is how can asset price continue to march higher if the monetary policy set up is restrictive. He's saying that's ridiculous the general trend of asset prices is typically very reflective of whether or not monetary policy is restrictive or not. Now we said he's no longer allowed to speak to Kevin Warsh but describe him as quote one of his closest friends and call them a great Fred chair now he did criticize. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and his attempt to prop up the bond market by increasing buybacks recently so this was written in op ed by the Wall Street Journal on the wall in the Wall Street Journal excuse me by Stanley drunken Miller.

17:10So he's not afraid to criticize when needed. So he doesn't see the 30 year at 5.35 the 10 year above five as an issue but it's pretty clear that the market is pricing in rate heiks not rate cuts. Especially when you look at the short end torture meals have risen to price in a fed fed rate increase this week the market is expecting that. So what he says is that it's been a slow fundamentally driven March higher in yields but he does not find it alarming at all now an AI what he said is interesting he made a lot of money it was one of the early investors in AI. But he's cut his exposures firms exposure to 20% of what it was six months ago so he sees a bubble there and he thinks that thinks that is popping. Let's keep things moving and drop it another listener question now. I love the podcast I've been listening for about four or five years I had a question about lamb research LRC X I want to get your thoughts on it and if it was attracted to you or if it had to go a little bit lower for it to be attracted to you.

18:22And I would like to get a price point that you like thank you hope to hear the question answered on the podcast. All right looking at lamb research LRC X is the symbol and this is a name that is in the semiconductor equipment manufacturing business. The name that was down pretty big today. About 8.3% and I think that is the issue that's the tell here that this is in the heart of the AI trade. It moved up considerably from a low back in last spring of around 50 with just $55 in that range mid 50s all the way to a reason I have $436 in change. Now we're down to $270 three dollars after the drop today so I think there's still more downside to come. I think it's still good business but clearly this got ahead of itself.

19:27So the question is where is major support give you a number here. I definitely wouldn't touch this till at least 200 to a two in that range. So I think there's plenty of downside to come momentum is certainly broken. But once again it's a good business we like it we own one of their competitors. So I would say it's not our favorite within this particular space but it's certainly a good company with a good business. It's just the matter of you know the shine around AI and I build out I think it's coming off currently. So the next thing I talk about is the gold big comeback. Why the world's largest money managers are loading up again the world's biggest money managers are quietly building their gold positions.

20:27That signals rising concern about geopolitical instability inflation persistence and currency risk. That story is for tomorrow but for now I'm just in client I'm ready to take your calls now or anytime at 8.99 sharp. At KPP financial accountability means more than advice. It means we invest alongside you through our parallel investing approach when we recommend an investment for clients. One or more KPP principles invest their own capital at the same time. Same day same price same percentage. If your portfolio moves ours does too. That is alignment. That is transparency. That is the KPP difference. Visit investtalk.com to get your free portfolio review. Running a business means dealing with complex problems every single day. I needed to pull together a coherent research picture from a messy pile of earnings transcripts, filings and my own scattered notes on a handful of companies.

21:33Normally that takes hours of brutal manual work but I used Claude as my thinking partner. I just pointed it at my project folder. It didn't replace my workflow. It extended my thinking. Claude is the AI for problem solvers. It's the collaborator that understands your entire workflow and thinks with you, not for you. Whether you're debugging code at midnight, building a financial model or strategizing your next business move, Claude extends your thinking to tackle the problems that matter. Claude co-work. Brings Claude's agent power to everyone. No terminal required. Point it at a folder on your computer or connect tools like Google Drive and Gmail. Describe what you need and it handles the rest. Ready to have an AI that can tackle real work? Try Claude co-work. Today on any paid plan at Claude.ai slash invest. That's Claude.ai slash invest.

22:36And check out Claude Pro, which includes access to all the features mentioned in today's episode. Claude.ai slash invest. The Invest Talk Retirement Summit is coming to Irvine, California on Saturday, October 24th. For an exclusive in-person event, it will focus on five key decisions that can shape your financial future. Attendance is complimentary and seating is limited. Reserve your place now at investtalk.com. Yeah, I just want to wish you a just and a happy birthday. Certainly helping us all with investing. Okay, thank you. Well, thank you. I did the show on Friday. That was my birthday. And nobody can't call the wish me happy birthday, but apparently somebody did. So thank you. I appreciate that. I didn't think so at the time, but somebody must have called after hours. So thank you. Now let's pivot over to our main focus point. And that is Chinese rare earth exports.

23:47Mainly, these exports are declining. And there are companies declining to ship to the US at a fair week. Procursions from Beijing. So US officials continue to ask China to stick to commitments made in Busan recently. Hoping the day will ensure smooth flow of rare earth export licenses. And this is prior to the agenda. Being put together for the meeting between present Trump and present G coming up in just 10 days of September 24th. But despite this rapidly approaching meeting, a handful of Chinese suppliers have refused to ship rare earths to the US since early August. This is why in China, post sanctions on the responsible business alliance, a US supply chain monitor. And China deployed its own trade compliance weapon.

24:51And it's punishing companies that don't comply with it. And it's called the responsible mineral initiative. So both entities have really gummed up the process of getting licenses approved and therefore shipments out. Next ports of many rare earths are related or related magnets have rebounded since China have imposed exports in April of last year. We're talking about minerals like yitrium, indium, fast-fied, tungsten. These all have military applications. They're using sensitive industries like aerospace, chipmaking. And the remaining near record prices remain near record, record highs with tight supplies. Next ports to the US of yitrium have risen this year, but still only about half of 2024 levels.

25:58Even when shipments to other countries are starting to rise more considerably. So China is using these export controls to gain an advantage in diplomacy, in deals, etc. And so this is creating, going to continue to create issues for supply chains both here in the US and around the world. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to China was committed to maintaining global critical mineral supply chains. However, after two months without yitrium exports, China set 27 tons of material to the US in July. The second highest monthly shipment since January of 2027, but then kind of stopped. Now this is bad, but it's not as bad as it actually has been for other countries, mainly Japan. Chinese exports exported no terbium to Japan between January and August of this year.

26:59That's from 20 tons over the same period last year. Gallium shipments were down 65% during that period. These are usually made to make high performance rare earth magnets. And obviously Japan is a powerful industrial country. It makes a ton of high valued industrial components and products. So they need it. So what this goes to show you is that this geopolitical instability is feeding into prices. It's not just one thing. It's not just diesel prices that are at record high. It's not just oil prices that are well above $100 a barrel again. It's what we talked about on Friday. The inputs to producing food, but also the inputs now to producing industrial equipment.

28:04And military equipment. And so when our stockpiles are low, which we know they are of certain missiles, this becomes a bigger issue. Most people think of war as guns and bullets and rockets and airplanes. But in the current world with a with with the globalization that's taken hold of our economies over the past 30, 40 years. It's now increasingly more tied to these things, resources. And I don't think that's going to change. And it's another factor in the fact that we are going to be experiencing high inflation for an extended period of time. And so this is why interest rates are rising. And this is why harder assets means of production are becoming more value.

29:06And so you have control of these scarce resources. And you're able to bring them to market when supplies are constrained. You're going to make an above average level of profits, which is very different than what we saw kind of post the fall of the Soviet Union. When all these resources were given to the oligarchs of Russia, and what do they do with it? They were exporting a ton of raw materials to the rep, excuse me, to the rest of the world. That's no longer happening at the same level, at the same pace. And so it's not just China, it's Russia, it's a lot of countries on the world. And this is going to continue to be a theme, leveraging these resources for political gain. And that is another aspect of the backdrop of rising inflation. Now for time time, we've received questions via web for excuse me. Otherwise, I think it's from investtalk.com.

30:08And let's go answer that question now. Alex says, how do you just in a look? Alex from Texas asked about ticker symbol of D I know, like we could go two ago, this question is more so what happened to a stock whenever it splits a segment of its business into its own standalone operation. I mean, Dino will separate its lubricant, especially segment independent public utility company in the second half of 2027. I was wondering what does that do to the stock. Very, very simple. It's kind of like a dividend. That's what spin-offs are. You will get it in your account, like a dividend, but it won't be cash. It will be in a new ticker symbol. And that can be a good thing. It can unlock value. Because investors often they want pure place. And when you have a business that has multiple arms to it that aren't very synergistic, shall we say? Meaning there's no real value of holding one along with another for example, exon or chevron.

31:19There was called vertically integrated. They have drilling operations, but they also have refining operations. And so they can work together to control the flow of products and communicate and kind of capture a lot of the synergies of those two businesses because they work together closely. But if they have two businesses that don't have much to do with one another, it often makes sense for. I don't know why I get to think of it too. It often makes sense for them to split up trade trade separately so that when you're investing, you know, I am getting. This very constant concentrated type exposure. And I'm not getting diluted by this other business that's out there. So there might be a lot of investors that want to own a lubricant and specialty business, for example.

32:19But that's not dinos main business there in or refineries pipelines, exploration services, etc. So it's a little bit more pure play. And I think this is a good thing overall. So once again, you're just going to get it. I could dividend. There's no. There shouldn't be tax consequences to it. You still own both entities today and. After after the spin off, you only have a tax consequence when you sell it. Now let's put it back to the best stock voice bank. I played another question that came in from. Excuse me. South Carolina. Hey, Luke, we're just in joke and South Carolina calling about a little bit of a different investment opportunity. I didn't know if you had ever worked with a client or heard of someone investing in land or timber. There's an opportunity near me to purchase 46 acres of land that is well into its maturity.

33:21And would yield timber in eight to 10 years. And so one of them know if he thought that would be a decent idea. I thought it is to possibly use it to use as an investment possibly to eventually live on one day, but. Also possibly not depending on how well it did. I thought the land values in my area have been going up. So I can't why not. The fast one of that has grown state from the country. So land value should go up. And my thought is also that the value of timber is probably going to go up. But we love to get your thoughts on it. We'll listen to your answer on on test. Well, first preface saying that all of these resource plate plays like timber. How the right price with the right price. There's a yes. But understand what the timber business is. It's very, very cyclical.

34:21And you have to just go look at the ticker symbol, the WY. It's a reap that focuses on timberlands and manufactured wood products. Wood is mainly used to build houses. And we know that the home building industry is very, very cyclical. And wire house or made a ton of money in 2020, 2021, one, 2022, and $3.37 in 2021. But this year only 33 cents. And then 72 cents expected next year. So it's very cyclical. The if you look at the actual stock on a monthly basis, it's where it's basically been since gone flat. Since the housing bubble in 2020, 2006, actually it's down a little bit. But it has paid a dividend. So, you know, overall return is still positive, but it's just not a great business. So to think that you are going to get into the timber business and it's going to be very lucrative, that's very tough to say.

35:28Now we do have tariffs on Canadian lumber, I think still. So domestically sourced lumber, maybe have may have a leg up. Have to look deeper into that and you probably want to as well. But I wouldn't buy it just because the timber is going to have a great business. It's too up and down. If it's cheap enough and maybe you can use the land for something else or maybe you just want it for personal use, sure. I think having a timber business on the side can be fine. But don't think that you're going to buy this land and now you suddenly struck rich in this timber business is going to pay for your retirement. A lot would have to fall into place for that to really happen. So, at the right price, yes.

36:28But don't get overly excited about that business. Melis Tackle, another voice mail question now. I just had a question about T-Row price, clicker symbol, T-R-O-W. I just want to get you a penny, and do you think this is a good time to get in or share? Wait a little while. Thanks guys. All right, looking at T-Row price. Now this is a name they provide services, but mainly they make money by owning mutual fund families. They own, let's see what they remember. Right. Excuse me. These hiccups are crazy. Okay. I don't have the fun families right in front of me. But I know it is a good business, but it's a good business that is continues to get weaker and weaker. Returned equity is about 19%, which is good.

37:31But it had been as hot, you know, more like the mid-20s to high to low 30s in profitability. So now it's in the low team in the high teams. Free cash flow, $2.8 billion. They have no debt in the balance sheet. High free cash flow yield over 10%. That's great. Nice dividend yield. However, once again, it is a bit of a melting ice cube. The income is well off its high in 2021 at 3.2 billion. Now it's at 2.2 billion. The chart is just kind of neutral. So it's not bullish, not bearish. This would be a play really on the downfall of index investing and resurgence and afterment. There's certainly an argument that that is becoming more prevalent, bigger odds of that emerging as we enter this geopolitical dysfunction.

38:32So that's really the play here. If you think that's going to be the case, then that would buy it. If you think indexes will continue to dominate, well then I would love it. We're heading to a break. Give me a call now at 8.899. Chart. You know those pieces in your closet that you find yourself wearing on repeat. The sweater that goes with everything. The perfect pair of pants. Or the tee you somehow always reach for first. Those are the pieces that make getting dressed easy. And that's what Quince does best. Quince focuses on high quality wardrobe staples made with premium materials like 100% Mongolian cashmere, organic cotton, and marina wool. The styles are timeless, versatile, and designed to become the dependable pieces you reach for day after day. They're 100% Mongolian cashmere sweaters start at just $60. Quince also makes premium pants, fitted tees and polos, and breathable activewear. Everything at Quince is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands.

39:32Personally, I wear Quince chinos on repeat because the texture and high quality fit are more than impressive. Find your next fall favorites at Quince. Download the Quince app for app exclusive offers. Or go to quince.com slash invest. Get free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada and the UK too. That's qui nce.com slash invest. Invest talk. Tell your friends they can listen live, download the free podcast, or watch Invest talk on our YouTube channel. And they can leave their finance and investment questions any time on 888 99 chart. Hey guys, this is Eric from Utah. I had a question about I'm looking at two insurance companies. Progressive PGR and Brown and Brown BRO. I know that like a lot of insurance companies they have been beat up lately.

40:35Technicals just your overall analysis of that in fundamentals looks like they both have dipped recently and are hopefully going to cross their 200 day moving average and just wanted your assessment. All is important on the show. Thanks. Brown and Brown is two. They're in the insurance business, but they're different. So Brown and Brown, the RO symbol. They're insurance brokerage firm. They do have they do have some underwriting services as well, but they're mainly it looks looks like a brokerage firm. This is not much makes their business inherently a bit less risky overall. Retail 58% especially is reaching 41%. Yeah, earnings are expected to go up this year, 5% 8% next year.

41:38So there's some continued growth there. It wasn't a long downtrend from the fall or spring of last year all the way until the bottom and the spring of this year. Around $55 now at $68. I think I kind of like this recent uptrend reasonable valuation here. About 15 times forward looking earnings. I think that's pretty cheap now progressive on the other hand. They are they use insurance services. They are the ones providing property and casual to insurance and re insurance. And then they have to go invest that that that money. Now where are they investing a lot of these insurance companies are investing them in private credit for example. So I would see if what exposure both of them have to that I would worry a bit on that. But progressives earnings are supposed to fall 1% this year and then 10% next year. This also has a similar chart pattern, but I like the brown and brown one a little bit better from being honest with you.

42:43Take a look at their balance sheets. Brown and brown does have a little bit of depth and nothing too crazy. Progressive. Hold this up here. They also have a little bit that nothing too crazy at all. Higher profitability. Let me look at some of the details. Devils in the details. Yeah. That's a pretty good profit. I'm going to go with brown and brown though mainly because I just like the trajectory of their business and the chart looks a bit better as well. But this is a tough call I will say. But if I'm going to pick one or the other. I'm slightly leaning. The last thing to talk about the Fed meeting coming up here in just a couple of days. And Friday's CPI report. Showed inflation accelerating in the odds of rate hek rose from 72% to 86% this week.

43:45So the consent consensus is that inflation is stubbornly high and central banks need to act. Now there's two reasons for a rate increase or two arguments. One is that tighter policies need to stamp out rising prices. The other things that Kevin Worsh actually paint himself into a corner at the Jackson whole speech a couple weeks ago. So either way rates are going up. What they're saying is that Kevin Wors said, quote, I'm impressed by the overall performance. The economy appears to be having to have strength and the job is rate at 4.1%. Remains low by historical standards. And the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is 12 month change in the PC price index stands at 3.7%. He said, while this summer's PC and CPI readings are better than expected, they do not tell me the underlying trend of meaningfully improved. So he's saying jobs was rate is fine and inflation is still above target. Pretty simple. If you go look at the PC numbers, they continue to be an issue.

44:45So if he is words mean anything, he has to hike. Even if you think that the inflation data is getting better, which kind of isn't. He's tossed high because he of the words he they said. And then you look at the backdrop of higher oil prices, the usual prices, a tight labor market where. Year of year change in in job is accelerating. Wage growth is accelerating. All this is leading to as suddenly dropped most at a rate height. So that's likely what we're getting on Wednesday. Well, I'm sorry for my hiccups in the back half of the show, but that does it. I'm just in client mind you've paid financials, payroll investing. You make a trade for our clients, make the same trade for ourselves, same day, same price, same percentage, no front running, no special treatment. We invest right alongside our clients, we share the same risk and potential for success. And you can learn more at any of our to investtalk.com.

45:47And please remember to register for October October 24th. Retire retirement summit in person in Irvine, California. You're invited to join the KPM and some guest experts to work excited to see you there. Independent thinking, shared success. This is Vestalk. Good night. Investalk is a trademark of KPP financial. Because of the nature of the interactive dialogue inherent in the format of this program, it's important for the listener to understand that not all comments made will apply to that. Specifically, nothing said she'll be taken to be investment advice, or shall statements on this program be considered an offer to buy or sell security. Because such advice is rendered solely on an individual basis, and at times will require that the investor review a prospectus before investing. Investalk is a copyrighted program of client, pavly, and piezily financial. A registered investment advisor firm, which retains all rights.

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