Cash That Ticket - Thursday March 26th

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1:005am, I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink. Running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change, and head to work. Meetings, workshops. One more Celsius, no slowing down. Working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing. Celsius, live, fit, go. Grab a cold, refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius.com. Welcome everyone to cash that ticket podcast here on the straight out of Vegas, AM Feed Thursday, March 26th, 20th, 26th. I'm your host, Winoff Mons, you can find me on Twitter at SportsNerd824. Happy opening day in the MLB. Welcome everyone to the MLB. Welcome everyone to the MLB. Welcome everyone to the MLB. In the MLB, I know the season officially kicked off on Wednesday night between the Yankees and the Giants are not much of a contest there.

2:02But we do have the official opening day that I think everybody looks forward to, right? Games all day. It's gonna be a fun day of sports. We got obviously MLB. We got sweet 16 games kicking off here tonight. NHL's in full swing. I know we got the Texas Children's Open going on here in Houston. Astros opening day. Downtown is gonna be a complete cluster F this today and this weekend I should say here. But thankfully I don't live too close to a downtown where all the festivities are gonna be happening. So what we'll do today, we're gonna get into MLB. We'll handicap one of the NBA games. Get your guys a coupon code for pregame.com. We'll wrap it up with best bets. And if we have enough time, maybe we'll give out our NL division winners as well. But enough about me joining me, of course. He is the star of the show. Gracious enough always with his time to help me break everything down. It's Uncle Diamond Dave. Eslanco Dave, how's it going, sir? Yeah, I don't know why you call me the star of the show, bro.

3:04I lost my best bet yesterday on Auburn. Foolishly, Auburn had a huge lead most of the game and they just left it back door open. So you are the star of the show because you cast yours to save us from it over. Well, I will say this. Yeah, those backdoor losses are always tough. It's just you want to give it out. That's the best bet, Uncle Dave. But I think we were number one spot on with OKC and Boston. Yes, yeah, I'm hard to care about in the game. I was I was glad to see how many people listen to that. How many people took that? How many people sold that from being honest? Yeah, you know, people are, you know, people are listening, people are paying attention and we're keeping them in the greens. So, you know, I guess that's all we can ask for. I could ask for Markle Penn's to lead after the first round today in the Texas Children Open. He is tied for the lead currently, but at 43 to 1, if he were to hang on throughout the rest of the day,

4:06I would be coming into this podcast tomorrow on a high regardless of how bad we suck today. How many holes is he through? Seven. OK, well, maybe if I get done in time, I'll go down there and nudge him in the right direction for you. Yeah, do that for me. I'm not too worried about the afternoon, guys. I think it's going to blow a little bit in the afternoon, so. Fair enough. If he can get in, if he can get in, they club us with a lead, I'll be happy. All right, I'll try to get down there for you in nudge him in the right direction. I'll split the 43 to 1 ticket with you and make it worth it while I'm at the top. I was like, I gotta mention, yeah, you mentioned our best bets end up going one in one. Spurs do get the job done for us last night. Just trying to see the final score because I saw the score at the end of the first corals. I was like, well, they should get this job done, but they do win the game by 25 points last night, 123, 98. Not sure for a lot of people. We're seeing a lot of overs, Uncle Dave. I'll say that much as we wind out this NBA season with some of these quote unquote, tanking teams.

5:10One more note in the NBA. Before we do get to the one game we want to break down here is two expansion teams that were, I guess, quote unquote voted for and approved by the board of governors in the NBA. So we'll have another team in Vegas. That was always been the rumor for the past couple of years. And then the NBA returning to Seattle. That's going to be fun for them in the Northwest there before obviously if you were alive or if you followed the Seattle supersonic before they made their move to Oklahoma City, they'll be getting the franchise back there. So 31 and 32 in the NBA franchise is now. Let's get into the NBA, Uncle Dave, because we do have a lot to talk about today. Don't waste any time. We'll break down one game. There's only three games on the schedule. I think we're going to pick the one. Obviously that has the most, I guess, significant or the most interest or the closest betting spread here tonight.

6:11And that is going to be the New York Knicks. Uncle Dave, they are in Charlotte to take on the Hornets. Hornets currently are a one and a half point home favorite with a total of 222 and a half. Boy, if you told me at the beginning of the season that the Hornets 20 favorite at home at this juncture of the season against the New York Knicks, I probably thought you were a little bit crazy, but here they are are the Charlotte Hornets. So start here with the injury report. Let's start here with the Knicks. Miles McBride is going to be out to Landry Shamit, is out as well. And then for the Charlotte Hornets, pretty clean injury report. Really the only player Pat Conkins out there, he's questionable with an illness here tonight. But big game between these two, of course, Uncle Dave. We talk about seeding in the Eastern Conference, of course, the play internament bracket there and the Knicks right now. Sitting in the third spot, they're just half a game behind the Boston Celtics

7:11for that number two seed. Meanwhile, Charlotte holding strong onto that ninth spot in the Eastern Conference. They're a half a game behind the Miami Heat. And there are two games behind the Toronto Raptors for that sixth spot, trying to possibly get out of that play internament bracket. But where are your thoughts on the Hornets Lane, one and a half here hosting the New York Knicks? Well, you know, I think if you just got the top of your head, we were to look at this game. I mean, you know, kind of what's not to like about Charlotte. I mean, they're playing well. They got double revenge. I mean, I think they've been beaten badly by the next twice this year. And, you know, one could argue though, in the latest kind of Hornets win streak, they've beaten salad wellers and or they've been at home. And, of course, they were at home tonight in the Knicks aren't salad wellers. So, I guess this is what it'd be kind of find out if the Knicks are ready for prime time, right? I mean, this is the first of a four game road trip. And they follow this game of Addo Casey at your Houston Rockets. I mean, you know, I guess I can make the case that everybody would be on Charlotte

8:12and everyone's not usually right. And kind of whenever I see a Knicks game, I want to look at the under, you know, but they've been scoring. And they're actually the eighth fastest tempo in the NBA. Charlotte's in the bottom third. So, at this point, no, it's kind of stuck. But given that they scored in those two-blow losses, 101 and 104 against the Knicks, maybe it's a magic problem. I mean, they allowed 1.29 and 1.19. So, again, it could be a magic issue for the Hornets. And, you know, you mentioned that both teams need to win. I mean, the Knicks can still catch Boston for the two-seed. And Charlotte can kind of get out of a play-in game. So, you know, I'm looking at this and I'm thinking, this could have a playoff field to it, if you will, which kind of leads me to a first half under. I know you talked about a lot of overs, but those are kind of with tanking teams. And that's not what we have here, you know. So, if I'm betting that game, I'm betting the first half under. And as much as I'm only somewhat confident in that, I don't love it, but it could go either way. Obviously, it's essentially a pick-in game

9:14and the total of 222, 223. That's kind of average total. So, you know, I think that total is pretty right, but I think the first half, the next-plane defense in Charlotte slows the game down enough that we might see the first half stay under. Yeah, I agree with you on this because you take a look at some of the last opponents. Have the Charlotte Hornets have faced, right? It's been those teams that are at the, you know, bottom of the standings and, you know, quote unquote, you know, tanking teams. And you had mentioned it, right? Excuse me. The nicks have pretty much taken care of business against the Hornets and each of the two matchups. This season, in fact, they've actually won eight out of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. And I'm just, you know, now looking at Charlotte's schedule that, you know, when they've gone up against teams that are playoff hopeful, or I guess some of the

10:15better competition, they've struggled in those spots and also this season, Uncle Dave, when they've gone up against teams that are above 500, they're only 19 and 24 straight up in those spots there, but this is a team that the Hornets, that you probably want to back, of course, when they're, you know, facing these tanking teams, but you take a look against the Spurs, they lost that game by 13. They only scored 102 points against the Sun, they only scored 99 points. They lost to the Heat, they give 128 points in that game. So, you know, I've gotten this next team wrong, especially when they face against Toronto and you mentioned it, right? It's sometimes it's just a matchup thing for this next team. So, I'm inclined to take the next year plus the points, plus one and a half as much as I have two to the Horn of the Charlotte Hornets. I'm curious to see how they respond here against a team that's above 500 and, you know, quote unquote, I guess, at least a hopeful contender in that Eastern Conference in the New York Knicks there. So, I love your underplay, under 222 and a half first half,

11:19or sorry, first half under it, and then I like the full game under as well, and I'll take the points here with the New York Knicks, plus one and a half in this matchup here. Again, like I mentioned, only three games on the schedule here in the association, but we dominate today by MLB, and of course, the sweet 16, tipping off here tonight. But do you have anything else for the Knicks in the Horn of the Turkle Day? No, I'm putting a pen in that one, the bar on my nav phrase. There we go. Let's get into baseball opening day, here starting early in about, I want to say less than three hours, Uncle Dave, but we'll get to some of the afternoon games into the evening here to break down a couple of games here for you guys. In the first one, it wouldn't be a Uncle Dave podcast if we didn't talk about the Red Sox on opening day. They are going to be in Cincinnati to open the season here, Uncle Dave. We've got Garrett Crochet on the mound for the Red Sox, Andrew Abbott is going to be on the mound

12:19for the Cincinnati Reds. This will be a 410 Eastern start time. Right now, and I'm using odds courtesy of draft kings, but again, especially for the MLB season, for betting money lines, if you're betting run lines, always, always, always get the best of the number because it's a number one of very long season. Some of these lines do fluctuate, but right now, over on draft kings, the Red Sox are a minus 163, road favorite here, plus 135 on the money line for the Cincinnati Reds. Total in this game is set at eight here, Uncle Dave. What do you think about your Red Sox, as they open the season against the Reds? Well, a couple of things. My daughter loves to crochet, so I should just take Boston. And, you know, I want to sort of give a quick thing to my baseball clients, and I have quite a few that, you know, we're not going to be firing three bombs out of the gate anytime soon. It's a long season that we want to be ahead in October.

13:21I'm not going to guess. So my plays will be smaller and less of them until we get, you know, a couple of weeks into the season. I'm, you know, do not hear what I'm not saying. I'm not going to not make any wages, but, you know, we're not going to, we're not going to, going to throw out, you know, high-risk parlays and unicrabbing things anytime soon. So back to this game. Abbott, kind of much to my surprise, is better at home than on the road last year. Is the R.A. in home, which almost a full-run better, which you kind of wouldn't expect in that small park in Cincinnati. And as you'd expect, for sure, it was much better away from Fenway, where he doesn't have that big little, big little left field thing there. And he went 13 and 2 and 18 starts on the road. And he beat the reds last season, but he did give up five runs and six innings and in keeping with sort of batting theory, if you will. If that were a recent game, I would always look for the picture to make adjustments and not have a repeat performance.

14:22And I would say that about the reds hitters if Crochet and kind of shut them down. You know, there's still some merit to that, but probably less than there is in season, I think you can make money just fading what happened before, if you will. And I'd like to take both times out of the equation, especially early. And it's interesting to know, not surprising to me the value of being placed on Crochet. I mean, Boston was minus 180 for the first five last night, minus 160 to win the game. So that would probably lead me to take the reds run line for the full game, or maybe plus a half of the first five innings, because I think they're ignoring Andrew Abbott. I mean, you could have had a total of eight last night, which is kind of low for that stadium, but the one that's going to be warmer than it could be with a fairly decent crosswind. I think eight and a half, which I'm seeing some. And then I look at that as I need them to score nine runs to lose that bet. I would take the under at eight and a half, and excuse me, the first five is three and a half with heavy juice to the over,

15:25but four and a half juice to the under. I mean, get four and a half, again, I think needing five runs to lose at first five better than under. I'd look at that as well. Yeah, I was going to mention the first five under. I think both these pitchers get off to a really good start here. You know, you mentioned Garrett Crochet last season. Yeah, he did give up what five and runs and sorry, against the reds at home, in Fenway Park last year. We also did have nine strikeouts in that matchup as well. But I do think that we could see a little bit of a pitching duel here to start within the first five innings here, Uncle Dave. So I do like the under in the first five innings. If you had a gun to my head, full game, I think it would be the red side for me as well, whether it's on the money line or on Uncle Dave as he mentioned, if you want to take the run line there as well. I think that last season, when do the MLB put? I think the reds plus one and a half was my best, but I think it did get to the window there.

16:25So they've been good to me, at least throughout the season. But I think this will be a pitching to a little bit of a lower scoring game. And they've wanted to ask you on the strikeout prop here for Garrett Crochet's at seven and a half. He did have nine last season at Fenway Park against his reds team. Does that excite you or any thoughts on that? Yeah, you know, I've looked at some pitches props today especially early. I mean, that's a hard pass for me, only because I'm not sure how long they let him pitch, you know, right? I mean, these guys haven't pitched, they haven't, you know, odds are they're not going to throw 100 pitches. I mean, that's kind of the threshold, right? Unless he's like super clean and he's only thrown, you know, 75 pitches through five innings, which is entirely possible. So a lot of the strikeout props, you've got to kind of think about, you know, look back

17:26at history and, you know, what they were able to do in the first few starts last year, all along they were allowed to pitch. You know, I mean, yeah, if we knew, he wasn't going to walk anybody, the reds were going to wait him out and not fall for that sort of hanging low outside sinker and get all the strikeouts. But the reds are a strikeout team, so it kind of could go either way. I mean, I'm kind of open, it goes over because I like the runs under, but strikeout props in general. You know, I mean, I had one last year. I was over three and a half for somebody, there was a young kid, nobody do much of. And he had three in the first three innings and then they pulled them just because they didn't want him to pitch anymore. Like, yeah. So, you know, that can happen. So, you know, I, you know, I could make a case either way, really. I mean, the weather's supposed to be fairly mild and Cincinnati, which could lead to him staying in a little bit longer. You know, it's a little bit squared to take the over, but, you know, he could strike out 10,

18:28he could strike out five. That's why it's seven and a half. Yeah. I don't have a stronger opinion on that other than, you know, if somebody wants to look at it, you know, how many pitches over the last couple of years does this manager's let him throw in this first game? Because he's not going to get hammered, right? I mean, he's not going to give up five runs at two innings. So, yeah, I mean, I'm not averse to that, but I'm not endorsing it either. Yeah, last season, just for reference, opening day for Gare Crochet against the Rangers in Arlington there. He went five innings, five hits, two in runs, but only had four strikeouts in that span there against the Texas Ranger. As we mentioned, you know, the reds are more of a striking out team, you know, like there were last season. So, you know, take that advice for our handicap on some of these props that you may be looking at especially for pitchers on opening day. All right, all right, let's keep it rolling here. We'll get over to the next game we want to get to. That is going to be a four 10 Eastern start time

19:31as well, the Detroit Tigers. They are on the West Coast. They're going to be taking out the San Diego Padres on opening day here. We got a Tark school will go up against the Padres in Nick Paveta, who's going to get the start there for the Padres. The Tigers are a minus 136 road favorite here. Again, odds courtesy of draft Kings. The Padres are plus one 13 on the money line. Who is to that seven here, Uncle Dave, between the Tigers and the Padres where your thoughts on this matchup? Yeah, I mean, Paveta had a career year last year. He finished with a whip of 0.99, which is pretty hard to bet against. And, you know, the question is, was that the outlier or partially based on the fact that NL teams hadn't really seen him since 2019? I mean, both are possible. So now he faces a Detroit team. It's not quite a bit of him during his time with Boston, but in 78 bats against the Tigers, I've been able to do much. And, you know, back to Paveta, was eight and one at home last year

20:31and held opponents to a 173 batting average, which is sick. I mean, you know, we know what school was done nearly every year and much to my surprise. The Padres had 51 at bats against him with not a lot of success. And you know, Peco's a big stadium, a big under park. But, again, let's see what happens when we take out the bullpenes and we're off. I mean, you know, the Tigers were minus 160 in the first five in the family. I said, they were the total of three and a half. Surprisingly, due to the over, and again, at four and a half, I would love the under. But the game total of seven, I would be inclined to take the Padres on the run line. I know it's pricey. Maybe I just split it with the Padres first five, plus a half a run, which is only minus 120. And I think that's a theory. You know, if you want to blindly bet a lot of these underdogs on the run line, I mean, most of the totals are low. You know, if you're, if you're, you know, saying the total is seven, which it is, and you're getting a run and a half

21:34before the game starts at any price, you're getting about 21% of the expected runs before the first pitch. So mathematically, that's a pretty solid bet. I mean, if the total is nine or 10, you're, you know, it's going to cost less, because it is less meaningful, but by the same token, you know, conversely, if you can get a fairly cheap run line in a total of seven and a half or under, I think that's almost always the thing to do. Yeah, Nick Vendra, at least over the last four starts, and these are more, or sorry, last three starts, I have to say, has been very, very good against this Tigers team. Last season, he did face them around April 22nd. Seven shut out innings, Uncle Dave. You only give up two hits in that span, and they did get the victory, did the, did the Padres in that game with Nick Vendra on the mound. He had a couple starts against them.

22:34When he was with the Red Sox in the 2024 season, we're pretty good outings as well. You only give up two earn runs each. Made it past the fifth inning, and in each of those two starts with the Red Sox. I think people are going to see, and are going to see, Hey, Tark Scoobal, Dominate Pitcher, AL-Sai Young Award winner. We're only getting around minus 135, minus 136 with him. I think that's going to be the public side here, but I like the Padres in this spot. I really do. I think that, I think Scoobal makes maybe a couple mistakes here. I think the Padres are able to take advantage of that. And you mentioned, right, how good Nick Pavetta was at home last season in San Diego for this team, and I think that's just going to continue here, and adding to the fact that what you mentioned, that it's a pitcher's park, and I think at least in this game runs, we'll be at a premium here. So I'm liking a lot of undershirts today. I think this is another one for me, whether if you get a four for the first five innings,

23:37or even the full game, I think the Padres bullpen is also all very, very good when we talk about 13 win total for the regular season here, but I do think the Padres give the job gun here. Give me the Padres here, plus sides again, always shop around get the best number, like we always say, for this game between the Padres and the Tigers. Last game we'll get to here on the opening day card. We'll go to the NL West in the evening slate. We've got the Arizona Diamondbacks. They are going to be in LA to take on the Dodgers. Zach Gallen making the start here for the Diamondbacks. It'll be Yoshinubu Yamamoto for the Dodgers getting the start here. Dodgers are a minus 271 home favorite, plus 218 on the money line for the Diamondbacks. Total set at nine, run line for the Dodgers Uncle Dave, minus one and a half, minus 136, plus one and a half, plus 113 for the D-backs here,

24:37but what are your thoughts on the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers here on the opening day? Yeah, I mean, when I look at a game, I try to look at, you know, sometimes you'll get a really good picture on a marginal team, and he'll be like minus 200. And you think, okay, since when is this guy worth minus 200? And I can say the same thing about Yamamoto, is he worth 270, but he's not on a marginal team. I mean, probably I'll look the other way, and what's not to like about Zach Gallen, plus 200? I mean, he pitched against the Dodgers twice last year, and he got crushed in May and again in July. And as I say, a lot of times, a different result the next time around, Yoshinubu Yamamoto over six innings on two hits. So, you know, I assure you that he's crushed some tickets, so you're gonna chase him parlories that day, is people probably lined up to think that they'll get crushed again. The problem with Gallen is inconsistency.

25:38I mean, he'll stride people out, when he'll miss high, and a lot of his miss high pitches left the park last year, like 31 of them, which is kind of a lot. And you look at individual stats. I mean, Otani and Freddie haven't done much against him. So, you know, if that holds true, he can keep them in it. But, you know, the D-backs, as I have many teams, hadn't had any success against Yamamoto. With that in mind, you'd expect pictures to be ahead of hitters in for a chance of timing. And because it's the Dodgers, I think a first five total of four and a half is a bit high, and it's even juiced over. So, I'm looking at, you know, if I can get an alternate first five of five and a half, I would love the under. I mean, you can get those alternate total under half kings, and I don't see a problem with that. You need six runs to lose that bet. I saw some nines for a game total. I'm not looking at it right now, but I can. Yeah, truckings as a nine.

26:39Yeah, yeah, I saw some nines. And again, you would need, if you bet the under, you'd need 10 runs to lose that bet, which is also not a bad deal. Or you can get Arizona on the run line at even money, you know, why would I make that bet? Because I don't trust the Dodgers bullpen. And as we talked about earlier, there's little reason for managers to let pictures throw a hundred pictures in any game. Yeah, especially someone as elite as a young promoter. So, you know, I like unders. I like, you know, I don't love any of it. I mean, obviously, no matter which way you go, it's pricey or dicey, right? I mean, it's pricey. I mean, you know, okay, yeah, let's use Yamamoto and the Moneyline Parliate. I'm sure plenty of people will do that. But as I've said many times, when elite pictures get hit, it's typically by a team that has seen them before, IE and their division as Arizona is. So, you know, I'm looking at it under for the total

27:39if I can get a nine or the Alpine first five of under five and a half. That's kind of the only way I could literally play this game. You know, in, you know, if Arizona got out quick and flipped the Moneyline, I could see taken an in game, but, you know, maybe go back and get the Dodgers at minus 130 yourself. And if Arizona gets up like 2-0 at some point, I mean, they're not going to flip the favorite in the first couple of innings, but you can make a lot of money doing that if you're paying attention over the course of the season. You know, take, take and take in the underdog and if you're fortunate enough to get out, then go back and flip the favorite and guarantee yourself to make some money. Yeah, you mentioned Zach Galen. I think that the key for him in this game is he going to be able to settle into those first couple of innings, right? And I think I know what Yamamoto is going to be able to do because he was so good against Diamondbacks last year, especially at home, where he had three appearances against his,

28:43or sorry, not last season, but in his career, where he's had three starts against his Diamondbacks team at home, a 1.33 ERA in about 20 in a third innings pitch, he only got three earned runs, or that span had at least eight strikeouts in each of those three starts against a Diamondbacks at home. So I'd be curious to see how long the leash is for Yamamoto because traditionally we do see the, you know, Japanese pitchers that are not, I don't say afraid, but they've had longer leashes when they've, you know, pitched in Japan where they've pitched, you know, 100 plus pitches, but, you know, is Dave Roberts and the, and the staff, they're going to let him go six, seven innings at 90 plus pitches. I don't think so because again, like we said, it's long season, but I think the one thing that's very curious to me is that even if he does go six innings here, that five and a half strikeouts prop for him,

29:43I see right now feels a little bit low. It is choose to have minus 142 right now, currently over on draft Kings, but I do think that he can get six strikeouts in this game here. So it's a little bit chalky, but I do like that, and I do like your undercall here. I think a lot of it is going to depend on Zach Galen if he's able to settle in. I do think that he will be able to, and a little bit of a rough season last year, you know, up to Zach Galen's standards, where he's just been so good for this Diamondbacks team, but I do think this is going to be another game here where I think a five to something in that range type of victory here for the Dodgers. So under for me, and I do like the Yamamoto over five and a half strikeouts against the Diamondbacks here on opening day. Anything else for Dodgers, Diamondbacks? Yeah, I mean, if you're, if you're curious, Yamamoto went five innings in both of his first two starts last year. Now Pee, he wanted both of them, and he gave up three runs in those 10 innings. But that would kind of go, you know, his first game against the Cup, he struck out four or second game against the Tigers,

30:45he struck out 10. And that would stand a reason because the Tigers probably hadn't had seen much of him, but just, you know, kind of looking ahead here. And, you know, his pitch counts were 90, 72 in his first game. So, you know, that would, you know, that would affect my, my overall prop. I mean, history is the greatest indicator of the future, right? So, you know, he didn't get up, he didn't get up to a hundred pitches till, you know, sort of mid-April. So, I, you know, and again, obviously it's going to depend on what the score is, right? I mean, you know, Dodgers are up five or nothing, you know, why leave them in there? Yeah, 100%. You know, there's a lot of variables that you just don't know. And, you know, that's why some of these podcasts that try to handicap baseball games the night before, I don't know how they do it, because you don't have bullpen usage, you know, you don't know who's going to rest, and it's just tough. So, that's why we kind of wait till the day of, and even if that, you know,

31:47over the course of the season, I mean, we'll see everybody in tonight, right? It's opening day, but so many times, you go make a bet at noon time, and then you'll, you'll see the lineup out, you know, at five o'clock, and oh well. I mean, Miguel Cabrera used to be my kryptonite, you know, when he was in his prime, when they were playing, you know, eight games and eight days, and oh, yeah, the Tigers are going to win, and all of a sudden, Cabrera was like on the shelf for the night, you know, load management, I guess. So, you know, baseball can be tricky, and you have to be prepared to buy off of games, like, obviously, you can tell, like, at five o'clock, one of the lineups out, you see that, you know, it's like the NBA, it's all based on player availability, and you see the line move, and if you're convicted, you know, don't do anything, you can't hold firm with it, you know, but I think that's also a time, baseball is a time when you have to, you have to be able to buy off of it

32:48and just, you know, eat your juice, or, you know, take the other team on the run line, and you know, maybe it's a one run game, and you can somehow slide out both, done that quite a bit. So, baseball is probably the least set it and forget its port for me because it is so fluid. Yeah, and again, you mentioned it's a lot of games, it's a long season. This is when the cliche goes that this is a marathon, it's not a sprint, right? Especially when you, you know, have the amount of games that you do, and you're going all the way through October, where we're sitting here on March 26th, that it's a very, very, very long season, no, I'm sure, like myself, you Uncle Dave also take, maybe even up to maybe the first month to kind of gather up the data and look at, you know, how managers are managing their, especially their pitching rotations and their star players and things like that, and who's going to, you know, obviously, we know who's going to be there every day guys, but I think a lot of it also does come down to bullpen uses,

33:51but I think last year when we did the MLB, probably we were recording a night before, a lot of my plays were in the first five, and it's just because of the unknown of the, of the bullpins, obviously, you know, a lot of those games that when we did record were, finally, so we kind of had a gauge on where those bullpins were at, but I think that a lot that does, a lot of that does go into it, you know, when you're handicapping MLB and availability and things like that there. So, you know, you guys will learn about that as we talk more about baseball betting throughout the season here. So, stick with us, you know, we'll be talking a lot more baseball, of course, with the season here. All right, Uncle Dave, before we get to best bets, let me go in and tell you all of our listeners about pregame.com, and right now, it's the time to get over there and get on a season long baseball best bet package. You know, where there is, from Uncle Dave, where there is any other pregame pros over there that know their baseball,

34:53and you can knock off $15 off of that price right now. If you use that promo code MVP15, that's MVP15 over there at pregame.com. And, you know, when we talk about a season long best bet package, I think the MLB season is a very good time to do that because it's a long season. You wanna see the ROI on your money and this is one of the sports that you have a very big sample size and it's very, very difficult. I'll tell you this in Uncle Dave, probably a test instance as well, is trying to handicap the number of games that happen in a baseball season on from a day to day perspective, it's difficult. And let us do that work for you. Let Uncle Dave do that work for you because again, he knows his baseball. When we talk about these win totals, I mean, this is what's just a little bit of an appetizer of breaking down the games that we have on opening day. I kinda go into the process of what Uncle Dave looks at

35:54when he's, you know, handicapping baseball games, right? So, again, get over there at pregame.com. If you wanna support the podcast here, do us a favor, use that promo code MVP15. If you wanna support Uncle Dave, use that promo code MVP15. Just go to there pregame.com, pregame pros, get on that baseball season long package and I can assure you that you won't be sorry. But we'll get, we'll be here, of course, throughout the season, talking more MLB and breaking down games as the days progressed. All right, Uncle Dave, let's wrap it up here with our best bets for this episode. I will let you lead it off where you're taking us for your best bet. Yeah, I'm gonna stick with baseball. You know, we kinda game out a lot of, you know, I mean, everybody wants basketball and we talked about the only real meaningful NBA game and for those that weren't paying attention we gave out a lot of sweet 16 info Tuesday and Wednesday. So I'm gonna go to baseball.

36:54I'm gonna look at the Orioles and the Twins first five under four and a half. I mean, people are looking at the wind and for anybody that wants some detailed information on park stats, wind, temperature, all that other crap, ballparkpal.com. Is it place to find it? That's where I generally start first thing in the morning. So people look at the wind. It's kind of blown out of the good clip of this afternoon and they probably think they're gonna be a lot of runs scored and I kind of beg to differ at least through the first five innings. I mean, Trevor Rogers is a lead. I mean, he's a strikeoff pitcher that only allowed 70 hits and 103 innings and only six of them left the park. And if you're a Ryan's on a good team or in a bigger market than Minnesota, he's getting some young votes. I mean, he strikes out way more than a batter and innings and having said that, he does give up hormones whether I'd like to see. But, you know, well, park used to be a big time hitter's park

37:56but it was redone a couple of years ago. I went from a hitter's park to not so much, which I think kind of negates that wind. And I hesitated a little bit here as I do with any better. I like to cross my teeth and dot my eyes. But when I looked at draftings and I saw a Ryan's strikeoff prop is five and a half and it was juiced minus 158 to the over. I mean, there's a reason for that. Obviously a lot of people are betting it. And if he exceeds that, there's no chance Baltimore tees off on him. So I do like the Orelas and Twins first five under this afternoon. And while I'm on baseball, full disclosure, I did not have a winning year last year. However, my biggest three star bets were profitable. So what does that tell you? I made too many stupid bets. So having said that, I'm just going to adjust a little bit and the volume will be down this year. I kind of got caught up and it's always that thing, right?

38:56You got all these games and you like a lot of them and you like one a lot. But then you can't leave the other ones off. You do leave the other ones off. If you bet them all, they all lose. If you don't bet them, they're all going to win. And I kind of fell into that trap. I'm just telling you that I'm human just like anybody else. But my top bets are profitable in hindsight. I shouldn't have added all the other ones. But I kind of acquiesced a little bit to the people that wanted more picks. So I'm not sure my record was reflective of how well I typically do in baseball last year unless you're looking at the top picks. So that's my stick, I guess, for anybody that listeners see you saying, how good I am at baseball and then goes, yeah, but he lost money last year. Well, yes, that's true. And that was why. And hopefully we will just adjust that this year and I think that's how professional bettors stay alive. You have to adjust. I mean, markets adjust and information adjust. And you have to be able to adjust. I mean, we know what worked for some people 20 years ago.

40:00It doesn't work now or what work last year won't work now. You really have to be adjusting, not necessarily the way you hand the cap, but you maybe want to incorporate a couple more things because there's a lot more things out there than there ever used to be. And some things become less important than used to be. So yeah, I mean, I'm just adjusting to make sure that we end up green in October enough. Yeah, like you mentioned, I think that's the key factor there's adjusting. And I think that's a life lesson. I don't think it's just in the sports betting world as a handicap, I think it's in everything, right? That you have to adjust based on what's happening around you. And I think like you mentioned, the key part is that markets have changed from even five years ago. So you've got to be willing to adjust and for handicappers, like yourself and many others

41:00that I do respect, it's about learning what didn't go right and adjusting to the following season and making sure you do correct those mistakes and do your best to have it a profitable season there. So we've always set the realistic expectations that we're not going to win every bet. You're going to have a losing season in a respective league. And we're going to be transparent about it. So I don't think a lot of other handicappers do that or other companies do that. So I'll leave it at that. But like I mentioned, we'll be talking more about baseball, and handicapping, and betting as a season progresses because it's only day two of the MLB season. But with all that being said, with my best medical day, I think the Padres are the look for me. I did miss getting better odds on it, of course, overnight. But it seems the number seems to be moving in my direction. Yes, it's bold of me to fade. Starts scumal on opening day.

42:00But he's made two opening day starts. Obviously last season, the season prior. And the offense is something that hasn't shown up for him. And I think that he can make some mistakes in this game against a lineup like the San Diego Padres. And just me having faith in Nick Bavetta, especially at home, like we talked about when we broke down that game, that he's been really solid in San Diego last year. And I think that can continue here. So I think that for Tark Scumal, I think that he does make some mistakes in this game, that place that I do want to back on whether it's on the road, on the run line, would be down the road, but not against a team like the San Diego Padres. And again, as I mentioned, and we've talked about how great their bullpen is for this Padres team here. So I think that if I can get, let's say, six innings from Nick Bavetta and they turn it over to the bullpen.

43:01I know I'm in good hands there, knock on wood there because we've seen a lot of times our life where we've had a money line bet in the bullpen goes to blow it up for you. But at least with the Padres, I do have faith that they can hold a lead if Nick Bavetta gets them through at least six innings here tonight. But nonetheless, give me the Padres. Right now, plus one 13 on the money line, I'll use that on the Draft Kings board. But again, always shut around. Get the best of the number because I know there are definitely better odds on there on that money line. But I just use Draft Kings because it's just easy for me to navigate from tab to tab when we do these pods here. So there we go. All right, Uncle Dave, day one of baseball. So for most of these teams, opening day we've got games all day. Sweet 16, of course, tipping off tonight as well. But anything else to our loyal listeners before we get our Thursdays going? No, I was going to throw out my baseball take, but I've already done that. So I'm moving on, my friend.

44:01All right, we'll put a pin in that then. And for this episode as well, we'll be back tomorrow. We'll talk some more baseball. We'll talk some more college basketball. We'll look back at the results of the sweet 16. And maybe get into the NBA as well. So these pods may start getting a little bit longer just because baseball is here. But we'll do our best to keep it short and simple for you guys to consume it with your artwork, with your working out, wherever the case might be. All right, I'll leave it at that. Till then, good luck with your bets. And we'll talk to you guys down the road. I'll see you guys next time. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.