Carter Jensen's on a power surge

0:00This is the Lockdown Podcast Network celebrating 10 years of your team every day. As Carter Jensen's late season surge changed his expectations for 2027, I'll give you my thoughts next on Lockdown Royals. You are Lockdown Royals. Your daily Kansas City Royals podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. You were tuned into another edition of Lockdown Royals and the Lockdown Podcast Network as always I'm your host Jack Johnson and you can find me on Twitter at Johnny J underscore 15 that is at Jow H and Y J underscore one five. You also can listen to us on wherever you download your podcast that can be Spotify, Apple podcast, Amazon music, Google podcast, Odyssey and YouTube. We've actually had a pretty big surge in viewership on YouTube of late so very happy to announce

1:00that. Usually it doesn't go that way when your team's not playing well in the final month of the season but it's a big thanks to all of you that state dedicated throughout the season. A mailbag Friday is tomorrow too so if you want to get your question respond below to this video, title your comment mailbag Friday and you can also look up for my tweet that I'll put out later on this afternoon. Before we get started, want to tell you today's show is brought to you by Fandall College football Saturdays are already packed with reasons to get excited and this season Fandall was giving fans even more ways to get in on every matchup. Join all the action at fandall.com. The Royals dropped another one in the Marlins last night and they're going to be avoiding a sweep tonight or trying to avoid a sweep tonight. I'll be out there at Kaufman Stadium covering the game so I'll try to give you guys as much content as I can in the post game if anybody says anything interesting and maybe we'll get an opportunity to talk with Carter Jensen who has been on some kind of tear of late. He home her twice yesterday it was actually his birthday so what a way to celebrate and

2:03he's now at 21 on the season and we know that he went through an extended slump. He was still leading off and the numbers were not there. He was sitting well below 200. He was striking out a bunch. I mean it seemed to be yet another sophomore slump just an extended period of time where he looked a bit lost at the plate. There was clearly a plan to attack him a certain way and he was not adjusting and we had seen him go through a variety of changes throughout this year. We have seen him make two or three adjustments at the plate. However when you're struggling the last thing you want to do is just make change after change after change. You need to make one change and stick with it to try to get better results and now we are starting to see that patients pay off a little bit. He's still nine home runs away from 30 but try to grasp that where there has been at least two occasions this year where Carter Jensen has swung for a long time and yet when

3:06it's all said and done we might be able to say that Carter Jensen had a near 30 home run season. And as I said in our Vinnie Pascuantino episode the other day 30 home run seasons are a bit more common now. It's not like it was even 10 to 15 years ago where if somebody got a 30 home run season it really stood out. It will for the royals because you'll have a guy like Jack Caglione who will finish over 30 or close to it. Bobby would junior will be somewhere in the 20s would be my guest. Salvador Perez will be somewhere in the 20s and Carter Jensen could now join that list. And I want to be able to say that the two of us are seeing one of the youngest players on the roster that matters. And when I open up this show saying well does that change expectations for him? And I want to be careful in making this point because I don't want to walk back what I said a few days ago which is no matter what these players do late in the season you can't take that as who they are completely right.

4:06You can't look at someone hitting four or eleven like Jack Caglione did and say well he's going to be a four eleven hitter for an entire season. We know it's not going to happen. You can see the upside and say yeah he's going to be an everyday player and we expect big things from him next year. My guest is the royals view him as their second best player going into next year ahead of Michael Garcia, ahead of Vinnie and ahead of Carter Jensen. Jensen with a strong finish though might be able to put him into that category of a premier power hitter in the lineup. That's what I'm viewing this as. Not the well Carter Jensen can be a top three or top four bet. I'm not doing that but it's very evident that the power was there last season in September and the power has been there this year and they're not cheapies that he's getting. He's not barely getting it over the wall. You are seeing him hit the ball 450 feet from home played at 112 miles an hour. In the last week or so we have seen some titanic shots from Carter Jensen and that is showing

5:12you a guy that not only is seeing the ball very well but is doing a lot of damage with it. We see guys go up to the plate and they've got a ton of confidence they're seeing a beach ball and they're just plugging the gap right they're hitting all fields they're hitting 480 over the course of a week. Carter's not hitting 480 he's hitting in the 300s over the last 15 games or so it's the power though that is really starting to click and the power has been there this year but it hasn't been as noticeable as the last couple of weeks and you carry that into the end of the season. When I'm filling out the lineup and you go back to 2026s numbers you'll say well Bobby would junior hit 290 right he was a eight-war player we know who Bobby would junior is. Jack Caglione he goes from a guy that we're hoping can hit 2 30 with 25 bombs to someone that hit 285 with nearly 30 homers.

6:15We'll pencil that into the number 3 spot. Salvador Perez who will talk about the second segment I'm assuming he's going to be back unless he retires. He's not an everyday player anymore but there's 10 to 15 homeruns as a bench piece next year. Carter Jensen how are we going to view him? Is it a alright there's 25-ish homeruns that I can put into the lineup in the 6 hole or maybe he does lead off. We've had some good conversation good debate when it comes to the lead off spot or the Royals going to go into next year assuming both guys are healthy and give Mike Elgarcia the lead off spot back or will it be Carter Jensen. I could see it being a mix where against lefties it'll be Mike El against righties it'll be Carter Jensen so you would see Carter leading off a bit more than you would Garcia. You also could take the other approach which I've seen a lot of people say this on the comments section and also on Twitter. Well if you've got a guy that has nearly 30 homerun potential what the heck is he doing

7:18leading off. Put this guy down fifth in the order maybe six. You've heard me say that the Royals are going to need to go and upgrade the left field DH spot for this team and put them fourth in the order. Taylor Ward was a name that I brought up you could look into an E and Hapsa is Suzuki situation but that does mean Garcia Bobby Cags would be your top three then you have a new cleanup hitter and with the five hole hitter be Vinnie Pasquantino or Carter Jensen. I would guess against lefties maybe Carter hits fifth because Vinnie doesn't hit lefties well at all. So you put Jensen fifth you have a new cleanup hitter Caglione third Bobby to and then Michael Garcia leading off against righties you could go Jensen leading off then you have Bobby then you have Cagliome then you have your new cleanup hitter then you've got Vinnie and you piece out the rest of the lineup or piece together the rest of your lineup. It is refreshing to know that going into next year though you can't just bank on the

8:23same numbers happening again you do have more confidence in both Caglione and Jensen based on what they've done this year. This past off season it was we believe in Carter Jensen we believe in Jack Caglione those guys are going to be everyday players when it's all said and done but it's a lot different going into a year when you have a body of work like they've had this year compared to minor league numbers and maybe a month or two of a sample size. That's a lot different right in counting on someone. You know I like Carter Jensen a lot going into this year based on what he did in September right. In September is one month and there are a lot of teams that you face that have already waved the white flag and they say well we're trying guys out we're evaluating these guys and Carter Jensen was able to feast on some of those teams and there was not much of a book out on him and we know that he's not really going to be a 300 hitter.

9:23The power though made us all start thinking about what he could be over the entire season and this is lining up with what we all thought 20 to 25 home run potential. Now that we are seeing him do that and we're seeing him hit lead off in catch every day that's more of a sure thing in your lineup. It's not a well he could be this it's why we all felt comfortable with Garcia going into 2026 then we did going into 2025. Garcia in the 2024 year was a 250 hitter low on base percentage he was a singles hitter and then we saw after last year man that's a guy who's a five to six war player a gold glove defender and can hit 300 he can do it he may not do it every single year but you've got that entire season you can point to and it's not to be reckless and look at a guy from two or three years ago and say well he can do it again this will be the year he's coming off of and for Carter Jensen to look at that power and say next year there's 25

10:31there's 25 in the middle of your order the royals have not been able to do that many times in their franchise history they have not been able to do what they'll be able to do with Jack Haggley only going in the next year yeah you've got a 30 plus home run bad that can hit north of 270 that's hard to find and the royals rarely have been able to draft and develop that there are some significant pieces in this lineup which is why you've seen them turning on of late it's not that you take what they're doing right now and say that's a top five offense next year but there are pieces you can just start locking in and not worrying about Carter Jensen's one of those spots whether it's catching or D.H.A. and with that I do want to take our first break of the show when we come back if Carter Jensen's going to be the everyday catcher next year and Salvador Perez is going to return and in my eyes there will be a new D.H. slash left fielder where does the royals Hall of Famer fit in I'll give you my thoughts next on Locked on Royals.

11:35This back to school season spend less on your kids with Amazon we all know how crazy the back to school shopping experience can be it starts with the few items on the list then suddenly you're shopping for supplies close lunch gear tech and about 10 other things you didn't see coming it adds up incredibly quick when your kid spends days planning the perfect first day of school outfit because they want to make a great first impression you end up putting almost as much thought into it as they do at least the first day photos are worth it when the school says your child needs a calculator headphones tablet for the class and somehow you're buying another one before the semester is halfway over you start to ask yourself when did kids need so much tech for third grade so remember with Amazon's low back to school prices just spend less on your kids because every dollar you don't spend on them is a dollar you haven't spent on them shop back to school at Amazon and spend less on your kids we are moving on to segment number two of Locked on Royals and the Locked on podcast network as always I'm your host Jack Johnson and you can find

12:39me on Twitter at Johnny J underscore 15 spent a lot of time discussing Carter Jensen and his power surge late in the year and it's led me into this second segment which involves Salvador Perez and what they should do moving into 2027 he does not strike me as a player that is going to walk away I do not see him retiring this off season I would be pretty surprised if that happened and not that he's going to want some big send off I do what Miguel Cabrera did and Derek Jeter where every time you visited an opposing ballpark for the final time they had some gift maybe they do that I would get the sense though that Salvador Perez will announce it's his final year at the very beginning he does not strike me as the guy that's going to do it in the final homestay and say well that was it for me it's been great playing for this organization but now it's time for me to go and retire that doesn't strike me as the likely move I could see it

13:45happening a few days before opening day and that way every fan every royal span can appreciate that entire year and every time he goes to the plate it is no secret that we are entering the final stages of his career and the second half of this season I believe has shown that point blank it's been very obvious to tell that Salvador Perez is just no longer the every day guy that he once was and him getting some more rest Carter Jensen being able to catch more days than not you've seen the offensive numbers improve a little bit he's always going to be a power bad I don't see a season that he plays at bare minimum 50 games and he doesn't have at least 10 home runs he just has that type of power he's a very strong individual and assembling next year's roster and trying to get him back to October one more time the royals need to be very precise

14:51and how they assemble the roster around him you cannot go into next year saying well he's not going to catch every day he's going to DH he's going to be our designated hitter that's not how they should go about solving some of the offensive woes lengthening out the lineup Salvador Perez in 140 to 150 games could give you 20 home runs we also can point out that he's OPSing south of 700 most DHS everyday DHS around baseball don't have those numbers and the last two years you've seen the decline how do you maximize what little baseball he has left and make it a ceremonious finish to his career right good numbers he gets a shot at October he's not writing the bench you know he's not going to be a Luke Maley where he plays once every two weeks I still anticipate him being in the lineup three days out of the week we to see Mack with Treiro mix and

15:56match the lineup a lot they may also depend on what guys they bring in offensively this off season but I want Salvador Perez to be beneficial to the team more so offensively and that's it yes being the captain El Capitan being the leader of that team but putting up good numbers the best way to do that at this stage in his career is to take all of the pressure off his shoulders he is not viewed as the number four hitter or the number five hitter he's not viewed as a star and that is unfortunate for Salvador Perez because I would imagine he wants to play every single day he wants to catch every single day he loves this game he loves this city that's how he wants to go out but as I just said with the royals being precise and assembling this roster you can't give in to that every great player in this sport eventually had to take more of a backseat role and what shouldn't matter to Salvador Perez at this stage is getting to the postseason how they do

17:01that he's not a focal point of the offense anymore he can be that guy that gives you 80 games next year and I guarantee that him giving you 80 games next year would still be productive for the offense it would be helpful to the offense having Salvador Perez in that power coming off the bench I know you're paying him a good chunk of money but it's about making sure the offensive numbers are good the days of him being a great defensive catcher and him being a great pitch collar which he was never really a great one to begin with those days are gone one of his idols and somebody that he clearly looked up to was Yadayar Malena even Yaday in his final year was not the Yadayar Malena that was winning gold glove after gold glove offensively he was no longer there the Cardinals acknowledged that he was not an everyday player it did not take away what he did his entire career

18:02or what he did for St. Louis but it was about what made that team better and what makes the royals better next year is him yes maybe needing to fill in for a week deaching if somebody goes down or a quarter slumping he could catch for a few games in a row he still has that ability and I would rather have a Salvador Perez on the bench as your quote unquote backup catcher number two catcher then Luke Mayley and I know I'm hammering on the guy but you guys get what I mean Salvador Perez is going to finish with 20 plus home runs this year and he was dang near unplayable in the first half of the season he was hit in well below 200 he was OPSing in the 500s and the royals were still hitting him clean up and you just have to anticipate that could happen again right you go into next year and Salvador Perez is really slumping at the beginning of the year won't you feel a little bit better if you have somebody who can pick up the slack you bring in

19:03somebody who can be that cleanup hitter I'd like Bobby what junior hitting in the two hole I like cagglyone hitting in the three hole other than that kind of seems up for debate right now maybe Jensen leads off Garcia leads off Vinny hits fifth maybe he hits sixth your new guy that you would bring in maybe hits fourth maybe he hits fifth maybe he had sixth what do you do at the bottom of the order those can all be interchangeable parts for Salvador Perez when he plays in the lineup maybe he's hitting sixth I said at the beginning of this year the best version of the royals lineup is him hitting seventh health wise they have not been able to do that he's hitting cleanup again because you just have an abundance of injuries and the royals offense have picked as picked things up and he's been hitting cleanup is that randomness likely it's also probably due to jack cagglyone hitting four eleven in one month Jensen picking things up Bobby being back in the lineup Vinny was hitting really well when coming

20:04off the injured list it's all kind of blood into the rest of the lineup hitting is contagious when you're slumping everybody's slumping when you're hitting really well everybody's hitting well and for Salvador Perez I'm not sure he should be that guy next year that you're just counting on to replicate what he did in 2024 I want to echo again that every great player gets to this point the longer you play the likelihood is or the the highest chance you have become a bench player is just due to the number of years you play very few guys play an entire career are and are an everyday player for each of those seasons usually even the hall of famous they get to that final year and there's just some pressure taken off of their shoulders we cannot run you out there every single night we have other guys that can do that now we want to get the best out of you the best out of Salvador Perez next year is being an 80 to 90 game a year guy

21:11and I guarantee as I said earlier you will see those offensive numbers improve because he's still a powerful hitter and I know you're not getting into the same rhythm of playing every single day and it can be tough to come up off the bench and continue to be a 265 hitter but rest in keeping him fresh that's what matters to me and I want Salvador Perez's final year in Kansas City to still be a productive one not where he was running to the ground over the course of 150 games how do you want to see the royals utilize Salvador Perez next year let us know in the youtube comments below when we come back Nate Pearson and Stephen Cruz are this season's high leverage relievers but I'm going to tell you why that's not going to be the case next year and that's not a bad thing I'll tell you next on lockdown royals college football Saturdays are already packed with reasons to get excited and this season Fandall was giving fans even more ways to get in on every matchup

22:12back your favorite team build the same game parlay bet team props or make your picks on the biggest games of the weekend and throughout the season keep an eye on the Fandall app for even more ways to get rewarded with a full slate of college football Saturday there are plenty of opportunities to follow the games and find new ways to get involved visit fandall.com to get started today for my picks this weekend I will take Oregon to cover a near 25 point spread at home I am also going to take Ohio State to cover a massive spread in their week one opener they're also going into play Texas in week two probably not going to show a lot but I still like Ohio State's chances to run the table then we want to tell you about Cal she and we know with Cal she America's number one prediction market platform you can trade on every single game looking ahead to the games later on this afternoon and this evening Milwaukee trading at 51% compared to 49 with the Chicago Cubs the Boston

23:15Red Sox who were on the road against Baltimore they are trading at 53% compared to 47% NAS for your royals they are actually trading at 51% with Michael walk on the mountain night going up against sandy alcan Tara for my picks though I'm going to look to the Tampa Bay race taking on the Texas Rangers they're trading at 53% the race have been red hot and just getting every single break possible I like their chances there and then with Houston at 59% over the white socks at 41% I will roll with the stroze in that pick but I'm going to do so over on Cal she where your trading against peers on a live market meaning there's no house and as probability changes you can buy in and out of your position download the Cal she app and use code lock down to get $10 when you trade 10 KAL SHI Cal she trade on anything 18 and up only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading and vols risk and may not be suitable for all investors Cal she products are not available in all jurisdictions prices values and available markets may differ from those mentioned

24:15for more information see Cal she dot com slash regulatory we are wrapping up this Thursday edition of lock down royals and the lock down podcast network I've been your host Jack Johnson tomorrow's a mailbag segment so if you want to be included respond below to this video title at mailbag Friday and then you can get your question in as we inch closer to the end of the 2026 season we are seeing how the royals are trying to go about it we see what lineups they put out every single day we know that john rave gets opportunities and left we see Tyler tober getting out there loft in will be playing a lot of third base the rest of the way cag we own is going to be in right and boring any other injuries the lineups they're putting out every single night it's probably the lineups you can expect every not going forward and as for the bullpen we have seen guys slide into a roll and I would say that it's going to be highly likely that only three guys stay from this current

25:16bullpen and will be there next year and two of those guys are your highest leverage reliever so I'm not really going out in the limb making some bold prediction that Nate Pearson and Stephen cruise will be in the bullpen next year that is going to be the case assuming health and then being high leverage relievers right now does not mean the royals are just going to roll with them as the eighth and ninth inning guys next year john Sherman and jj bicolo have been pretty vocal about upgrading the bullpen putting resources into it and I've gone on record of saying I believe they're going to pay a closer big time money in the off season I don't know who that's going to be that's for our off season episodes but I feel pretty strongly that they are going to pay a closer big time money and sort of have that solidified ninth inning I also forgot to report a couple days ago Carl Sistevez his season is over and his time in canton city is likely over two we got to see him for that second game of the year and that was it getting surgery on his shoulder and the other reason I bring him

26:19up is that in 2024 the royals felt like they needed that solidified closer they went out and gave Carl Sistevez big time money by royal standards and for what they did for a lot of their their bullpen guys over the last five years they weren't giving out contracts like that they did for a stevez and a stevez led the league and saves he wasn't the most dominant reliever and he was bound for regression we didn't really see that regression this year because he was never healthy he had one outing he wasn't throwing hard at all and that ended up being the end of it this off season they're going to take what Pearson and Cruz did and say we like what they were able to do they had big league experience closing out games and setting up games or setting up the night then I should say and that is valuable for every bullpen out there because let me paint you a picture the royals go out there and just tear down the bullpen they moved Daniel Lynch back to a relief role and there's Pearson there's Cruz and there's Lynch those are the three guys you're

27:23going to be rolling with and that would be my prediction I don't believe anybody else that is currently in the bullpen is going to be back I don't see Connor Thomas being back I don't see Jose Quas being back I also misspoke the other day and I'm sure somebody caught it I said that no one Hoffman was in the bullpen because they didn't have someone with a John Schreiber type angle I totally blanked on Jose Quas being one of those guys and Jose Quas does pose as a funky sidewinder he's not going to be in the bullpen next year right Carlos DeRan I don't believe in even though he's in Omaha he's not going to be on the opening day roster and bringing in four to five new arms maybe they bring Randy Dobnec to the bullpen he's their long reliever or Ryan Burger doesn't win a job in the rotation and he becomes a long reliever that's a conversation for a different time and so when you have this reassembling of the bullpen you don't just want to have two high leverage

28:24that have all the experience in the world and a bunch of guys who have never pitched in high leverage right so Pearson and Cruz though they may move down to being the sixth inning guy we also can know now that going into next year all right your closers not going to pitch in 162 games there's going to be days where he's down can you count on Stephen Cruz to close out the game I kind of feel like I can or big moment on the road your Yankee Stadium where they never win and you had to burn your bullpen or a lot of it the night before can Nate Pearson go out there and close you out of game I've got a little bit more confidence than then maybe I did when he first got here and the numbers would prove that those are the positives of pitching in high leverage in lost seasons I brought up his name before and he actually got did he get removed off the 40 man roster I can't remember off the top of my head but James MacArthur I know James

29:24MacArthur did not have the most perfect 2024 season but what Nate Pearson is doing what Stephen Cruz is doing allowed the royals to make the closer switch early on in 2024 or I should say what MacArthur did in 2023 allowed them to make that closer switch in 2024 sorry I miss spoke on that so Pearson and Cruz doing this gives Mac with Treiro and Brian Sweeney and Mitch Stetter and Mike McFair and confidence that they can go out there and close out games James MacArthur closing out games in 2023 allowed them to bump Will Smith out of the role and MacArthur was pretty good for about a month and a half to two months he was not great long term but to have someone who can do that and not just have one reliever who can close out games and nobody else can do it that's valuable and I would like for every reliever in the royals bullpen it's not going to be that easy but I would

30:24look for every reliever they have in the bullpen to have that high leverage experience and the way they've assembled rosters or bullpen specifically in the last couple of years that has been a gripe not everybody in the bullpen was a high leverage guy and they would get thrust into high leverage spots and they would blow up the best bullpen's out there you've got numerous guys that can close out games for you Nate Pearson has shown he can do that Steven Cruz has shown they can do that he can do that but you don't take that and say they're the eighth and ninth inning guys next year you know they can pitch in those spots but go get yourself a new seventh eighth and ninth inning guy and when one of those guys is unable to go or they wind up on the injured list you can turn to a Pearson or Cruz and feel good about the production you're still getting that's how you assemble a bullpen and that's how I really believe the roles are going to assemble their bullpen this upcoming offseason do you see Nate Pearson and Steven Cruz having big roles in the bullpen next year

31:25let us know in the youtube comments below that's going to do it for another edition of lockdown royals and the lockdown podcast network I've been your host Jack Johnson now on video we send you to the first ever 24 seven YouTube channel on MLB and on audio check out lockdown MLB game night for your second listen until tomorrow for a mailbag Friday you take it easy Kansas City a big thank you to thank you for making locked on your first listen every day for your second listen find the all night locked on MLB game night every game every night until a world series champion is crowned get local analysis on a national scale find MLB game night on locked on MLB on youtube or wherever you listen to podcasts