Can the Guardians avoid arbitration with one of their most popular players?

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1:00Welcome back to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. I'm Joe Noga joined by Paul Hoynes, point see the Guardians set to exchange salary, arbitration numbers with Stephen Kwan. The the process is to the point now where both sides are going to exchange numbers, the then they go for a hearing. If they get to an agreement before the hearing, they can sign at any time. Post to the arbitrator, it's either Kwan's number or the Guardians number. And that's what that's what salary the player is going to make in the 2026 season. What are you hearing and what are your expectations as they they inch closer to the arbitration hearing with Stephen Kwan? Yeah, interesting. A development Joe today is the day for exchanging salary figures.

2:02You know, the teams version of what's quant you get paid in 2026 and Kwan is his agent's version of what he what he deserves for the upcoming season. The deadline is 1 p.m. today. If they reaching it, if they reach a deal. And I think it can go later tonight if they fail to reach a deal. And they give them some more time to negotiate a deal. If not, you know, most teams for the last several years have taken a trial or a filing trial approach. If they don't get a deal done today, you know, it means they're going to go to arbitration in early February. And that's the process you were talking about. Rearbitrators, I hear arguments from both sides. And they pick, you know, they pick a winner. It's either the team or the player's salary request and no middle ground. Now, correct me if I'm wrong here.

3:03But the people that sit there and negotiate from the team side, those are those are majorly baseball representatives. Those aren't necessarily direct representatives of the guardians, correct? Right. It's, you know, there's one one players association guy, one owner, one player, one MLB arbitrator, I believe, and one neutral arbitrator. Right. So, you know, it's not necessarily Paul Dole and Samir Frost, the table from Stephen Kwan and the two of them, you know, going at it. It sort of protects from sort of any sort of animosity in that regard. But it's still a process that can generate significant friction, I guess, between a player and a club. You know, I think back to a guy like a Trevor Bauer who wanted to go to arbitration as much as possible because he wanted to sit there and prove how right he was all the time. I don't necessarily get that vibe from Stephen Kwan, but Stephen Kwan strikes me as the kind of guy who knows his worth and, you know, wants, you know, sort of that.

4:04Yeah. And, you know, Kwan has already been through the process once, you know, he went through it, you know, after the 2000 and 24 season, he came out with a, you know, a $4 million deal. He settled without going to arbitration. Now, you know, he's projected to make, you know, from projections, M.O.B. trade rumors have him at $8.8 million. The baseball perspective has him at $1.175 million and a sport track has him at $8.5 million. So, you know, that's the range of projections that he's, you know, that he's likely to make. And I guess they could, you know, also, you know, they could set the stage for a multi-year extension. But right now, I'm sure they're just concentrating. I'm getting, you know, one year deal done and they'll go from there. But, yeah, it does cause animosity. Way back when in the 1990s, Greg Swindell and Jerry Brown with the, with the Indians went to arbitration.

5:08I think Swindell won, Jerry Brown lost, but Swindell was so upset over the process that John Hard and Daniel Dowd on the way back from the hearing, they decided to, you know, we're not going to go through that again. We're not going to put our players through that again. And that's what started the, you know, offering multi-year deals to players, pre-armed players. And, you know, that really revolutionized the whole game. And that was back in the early 1990s. And the process is still going on and you're right. About Bauer, Bauer beat the Guardian twice. Back-to-back seasons, you know, going to arbitration. Yeah, and that was before he was traded, you know, the final go-around for him in arbitration, you won as well. So you think about that as they, you know, move towards this process. You know, I just, I wonder from a player's perspective how eager they are sometimes when they reach the end of this, you know, where Stephen Quant is in this process. The arbitration and the pre-arbitration,

6:09from the time a player gets called up, it's a six-year process. You get three years of pre-arbitration where you make the major league minimum salary and that's pretty much all you can make in that process for those three years, unless you agree to, like you said, these multi-year extensions or deals outside of that process. But for most players on the Guardian's roster, it's three years of the major league minimum and then you reach the arbitration process for three seasons and, you know, the salary is decided for you to a degree. There are other avenues for you to earn more based on your performance that are in place now, but those are for, like, the elite players, the top players, the guys who dip into that bonus pool of money there, and it's not necessarily what you're seeing with some of these multi-year extensions where guys are getting paid, what, nine-figure salaries. The whole process from start to finish, it's designed to reward the guys who are consistent and have the six plus year major league careers

7:10and those are more rare than you would think. Yeah, Joe, I mean, if, you know, in the last negotiations for the basic agreement, you know, the players, the owners wanted to do away with the arbitration system, you know, at jacks-up prices, you know, they feel at jacks-up prices unfairly that, you know, the teams, you know, lose both ways because you really, you can't cut a player more than 20% in the arbitration process and rarely does the players salary ever get cut it, only increases whether they win or lose the arbitration process. So, obviously, the players really want to keep the process, they want to keep the arbitration process and compromise in the last of basic agreement was that $50 million for players that weren't yet eligible for arbitration, you know, the guys that didn't have more than three or more years in the big leagues.

8:10So, you know, that got more money to the younger players and we've seen guys like Tanner Bible really benefit from that. So, we'll see, and we know this is going to be a bonus contention after the 2026 season when the current basic agreement expires. Yeah, and, you know, teams are already preparing for that the expiration of the CBA down the line and, you know, starting to tighten their belts and we talked about how free agency has been affected by the upcoming labor negotiations, but this is all part of that. This arbitration process is part of the CBA has been for, like you said, going back to the days of Daniel Dowd and John Hart and more. It's just interesting to me, Cleveland might have been the place that started the whole trend of locking up your core players on multi-year extensions and all that and now it's something that could save them. It could save the fans sort of the heartache of watching the club have to trade away a guy like Stephen Kwan and yet they haven't been able to

9:13in the last few years. Really, the only guy that they've been able to lock up like that has been, have been Jose Ramirez, Emanuel Klase, I think they offered, and they got Trevor Steffen and Miles Straut assigned deals, but, you know, those guys, you know, performed and lived up to those deals. This is a, it's a tactic. It's a maneuver that Cleveland, you know, is sort of, you know, really good at, but it's the guys that you would really hope and want to see remain here on those deals. Like Stephen Kwan, you know, they haven't been able to get that done. Yeah, and, you know, the players, when the Guardians, when the Indians first started this in the 90s, you know, they got every, you know, all their core players assigned multi-year deals, you know, before arbitration, Kenny Lofton and Albert Bell and Sandy Alamar. But those guys, you know, they took the security over, you know, their earning power, but as these guys progress and became, you know, all stars,

10:16they, they out, they outtalented those contracts. Obviously, the agents and the players caught on. And now that's why it's so much harder to sign younger players, free our players to multi-year deals now, because they don't want to give up the money at the end of the contract, that they would be earning if they went one year at a time. We've seen Tanner Bible signed a multi-year deal. We've seen Andre Semenas, it still happens. But, you know, the, it's, it's few and far between. And guys like Shane Bieber went year to year, you know, and Kwan is doing the same. And it all depends about the player. Is he willing to play without that security? Is he banking on himself? Is he willing to go to arbitration year in and year out? And some guys are, some guys aren't. Yeah, the vibes and the feeling that I'm getting that we sort of sense in this situation right now, more along the lines of a Francisco Lindor

11:18and a Shane Bieber, when we're talking about Steven Kwan. You know, guys who, you know, when you talk to them, hey, I'd love to be in Cleveland. I love to spend my career in Cleveland. But, you know, nothing ever really materializes of it. The opportunity has been there the whole time. Even after Kwan signs, you know, or goes through the arbitration process and, you know, whether he goes to trial with it or not, even whatever contract he ends up with for the 2026 season, he could tear that contract up and renegotiate and, you know, sign an extension anytime up until basically the beginning of the regular season and beyond. It's just a matter of will he sit down at the table and do that with the club? I'm sure that they would welcome the opportunity to maybe negotiate, but we've just seen no evidence that that's been the case with Kwan. Yeah, and, you know, now he's two years away from free agency, Joe. And that's been, you know, that, you know, that's the goal of all players. You get six years into big leagues. And if he keeps, you know, that consistent, you know,

12:19production that he's had through the first four years, he's going to make a lot of money. And if he stays healthy, you know, there's a lot of ifs. But, you know, again, it comes down to believe it, you know, the player's mindset. Does he want security? Or does he want to maximize his value? And, you know, that's, that's the game that's being played right now. And when you get within one or two years of free agency, Joe, it's rare, very, very rare for a guy to sign a multi-year deal to stay with his old club. Unless he just gets blown away. You've described it in past stories that you've written. Huynes, yeah, I love it. It's the sirens call of a free agency. They, you know, time to the mast. Love it. So, yeah, you know, the reason that Kwan is so important in this situation, you know, in four years in Cleveland, like you wrote in your post today, 281 average, you know, he's one of their best hitters over the last four seasons, a 46 runs scored, 36 home runs,

13:23206 RBI, a 3.7 war according to baseball reference, and a 741 OPS. He's a two-time all-star, four-time gold glove winner. Last season might not have been necessarily his best season, but, you know, he still hit 272, 481 runs, stole 21 bases. It's, you know, you mentioned injury concerns. This is a guy whose hamstrings are always sort of on the radar for anybody who follows the guardians. Yeah, you know, the thing I liked about Kwan this past season, Joe, is he posted 156 games, 125 at bats. So, he stayed on the field. And for him to be effective, you know, any player, but especially him based on, you know, what he does at the top of the lineup, he's got to be in that lineup, you know, almost every day. Yeah, and, you know, beyond what he does on the field, he gives you exactly what you want. If you're a franchise, you could, like you said, you can pencil him in every day at the top of the order. A play-as-a-lead defense runs the bases,

14:24but also is, you know, just a good guy to deal with and talk to and be around. And a smart guy knows the game and, you know, improves areas in the offseason. You know, we've seen him go into the offseason saying, I want to improve my arm strength. And then he goes out and leads the league. And I'll feel the cysts. He's, there are little things about his game that make him the kind of guy that you signed to a multi-year extension. And that's what's, I guess, so kind of so frustrating about following this team and being a fan of this team is that, you know, the inability to get that done so far. Well, it takes two to tango, the old saying. And these two sides have talked. And they just haven't reached a point where both sides agree. And I don't know if that's going to happen before Kwan becomes a free agent, Joe. We've seen this time and time again, or he ultimately gets traded. The other big name out there, I guess, right now when you're talking about arbitration figures and filings and, you know, will he sign, won't be signed,

15:27will he be traded? Is Tarek Skubel, the Guardians Nemesis over in Detroit, basically the best starting picture in the game, the last couple of seasons, two times Sy Young winner. This is a guy who should be making at the top of the pay scale, you know, what he's, what he's able to earn. And I think everybody knows that the big rumor of this season at the winter meetings throughout the off season is will Detroit trade him? Are the bets a destination for, for, for Skubel? Because of their ability to pay, you know, whatever he basically needs and wants. The, the arbitration process for position players, I think the record for a player entering his final year of arbitration is 31 and a half million, a deal signed by Juan Soto, a couple years back. The record for a picture is Jake DeGrom, 19 million. I think Framber Valdez, 18 million in his final year of arbitration. So figure for Skubel, he's got to get North at 20 million in arbitration, just based on who he isn't,

16:30where he isn't in his career right now. The question is going to be Detroit, going to be the one signing that check. Yeah, you know, well, I think right now, you know, you know, I would imagine, you know, they're going to one way or the, yeah, exactly Joe. I mean, he is, you know, you're in 10 million last season. You know, he's projected to make 17 point between 17.8 and 22.5 million in arbitration. You know, as we've said before, I mean, if you're Detroit, I mean, this is a guy you have to keep. But to me, he's obviously, you know, a free, what a free agent wasn't to next year, right? I think that's a free agent. Yeah, so a delicate situation, much like the Guardians with Juan. But to me, this is a guy you cannot let go. Detroit has money. They, you know, they've spent on players before. I would think this is a guy you've got the tigers have to keep. Well, I mean, if you're Detroit, and it's a choice between keeping your homegrown guy in Terrick's school,

17:32or bringing in Alex Breggman, who you flirted with last season, the choice has got to be obviously. You've got to keep your guy. I mean, it would be devastating to that fanbase in Detroit to lose Terrick's school, I think, even if you're able to sign a guy like Alex Breggman and reunite him with AJ Hinch. I just can't imagine he wins two side, back-to-back side, youngs, and you trade him away. It's a head scratcher, certainly. But, yeah, I mean, it could happen. It still be. Mets are still trying to salvage their off season. By all accounts, it's been a disaster this year for them. But the Guardians would not mind seeing Terrick's school a little less every season, maybe, if he's not in the division. You have to face him fewer times, and Detroit sure is good at lining up their rotation every time the two clubs get together and making sure that school has a chance to pitch against them. So, it's something that I think as Guardians fans

18:33and people who follow the team, it's something to keep an eye on. Yeah, Terrick's school, do you think he should set the record for a pitcher in arbitration? I think he's, you know, I don't know if he should or shouldn't, Joe, but I think he's in a great position, too. You know, if he, I think he could make at least 20 million on a one-year deal, and that would set the record, right? I think that would be the biggest one-year contract given a pitcher. So, he's, you know, he has done nothing over the last two years to convince me otherwise. Now, obviously, you go deeper into his past. He's had some injury problem, as most pitchers have, that he's had trouble staying on the field. So, I don't know if that comes into play, but right now, I think, you know, he's number one, and I mean, he's a guy right there that could easily set the record. You touched on this a little earlier about how, you know, Major League Baseball owners and the Players Association, obviously,

19:33we're heading towards negotiations for the collective bargaining agreement and how, you know, the owners tried and rounded this to maybe get rid of the arbitration process. Where do you see, what do you see the future of this process, you know, in Baseball, even beyond this upcoming CBA? See, I don't think the arbitration process is going anywhere, Joe. This is, to me, this is probably one of the, you know, I hate to even think of a workstoppage, but, you know, this is probably something that the players would draw a line in the sand in. Or, you know, if the, if the owners can come, come, you know, with a, you know, a different version, but, you know, I think this, you know, this really kind of ratchets it up prices. This, you know, increases the payroll, and this increases player salaries, and just don't see a way around it. Why, why would the, the players back away from this take it out of the next basic agreement?

20:34I can't, I can't see that. I mean, I know it's, I think when it first came in, it was two years, you know, two years in a whole year it was exciting for Robert. And then they pushed it back. Maybe if that could be some way to work around that, but then, then still your younger players are getting the money that the, that the players, you know, that the union says they should be, because as you said earlier, the game is getting younger and younger. You know, if you take away a year of pre-arb, or maybe let them get to arbitration quicker, that's where, you know, the owners can't go for that, because that's where the big money comes in is when they get to the arbitration process, and the figures go up drastically from there. So yeah, I don't know if messing with the number of years is something that they can do, but the process itself, I think is, you know, to me, it's sort of like, you know, the property tax and school funding issues, people want to change that here, even in the state of Ohio. And until you offer something maybe different,

21:34a different way of looking at things in a different way of, you know, coming up with the funding for it, I don't think the process that's in place should change, and I guess we need to do the players. So, yes, again, this is, you know, where we are sort of in the offseason right now is sitting here speculating on contracts and salary figures and things, because there's not a lot of movement otherwise, not a lot of things going on. The only person who's really on the move again is John Kenzie Noel, who was designated for assignment, shortly after being acquired by the Baltimore Orioles earlier this week on waivers, Noel, the former Guardians Outfielder, now, once again, without a team, after he was released in favor of another outfielder, claimed by the Pittsburgh, claimed from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Marco Luciano, the Orioles, you know, claim Luciano, Waved John Kenzie Noel. So, Noel, out there, again, you know, tough stretch of days here, after, you know,

22:3619 days sort of not knowing where he was going to end up, Noel, now, again, without a team. Yeah, Joe, hopefully a big Christmas can, you know, can drop anchor somewhere somehow and get a job here and, you know, have a team that'll go to, bring them to spring training with, and give them a chance to make the ball club, but, you know, when players start bouncing around like this, you know, you really, the bright lights and glamour of the big leagues don't look that glamorous. This is, you know, you've got to, I feel for him because it's an unsettling feeling. You don't know where you're going to be. You don't know if you're going to play baseball next season. So, hopefully another team will take a chance on Noel. I'm sure they will because of his power and he lands on his feet somewhere. Yeah, and, you know, not to be overlooked, I think, the world's defense and, you know, he's not necessarily the fastest guy out there who he runs well. And, you know, he plays a good right field, can get the balls and has a really strong arm.

23:37This is a guy who can do a lot of different things. So, yeah, maybe a team brings him in on a minor league contract and gives him a chance to plan the outfield there throughout the season. All right, Hoynes, that's going to wrap up today's edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. We'll be back to wrap up the week on Friday. We'll talk to you then. Thanks, Joe. [♪ OUTRO MUSIC PLAYING [♪ Two good and co-coffee creamers are made with farm fresh cream, real milk, and contain three grams of sugar per serving. That's 40% less than the five grams per serving in leading traditional coffee creamers for a rich, delicious experience. Whether you enjoy your coffee hot, cold, bold, or frothy, two good coffee creamers make every sip a good one. Two good coffee creamers, real goodness in every sip. Find them at your local crogr in the creamer aisle.