Can China’s polar silk road change global trade?

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1:00It's everything your business needs in one place, saving you time, headaches and serious money. Stop paying for missing pieces, go to odu.com. That's odu.com to learn more. Welcome to the inquiry on Charmaine Cosia, each week one question, four expert witnesses and an answer. August 2026, a ship departs from one of China's busiest ports. 21 days later, it arrives in the UK. The main focus isn't the 175 metre long Dubai Tower cargo vessel, it's the route. Taking a shortcut along Russia's Arctic coastline will nearly half the traditional Asia to Europe journey time of 40 days. The Chinese shipping company behind the voyage sees this as the start of a regular scheduled seasonal service.

2:01This latest route towards Arctic expansion is part of a policy that takes its name from the ancient sea and land trade network that once connected Asia, the Middle East and Europe. This week we're asking, can China's polar silk road change global trade? That's one polar plans. Chinese scholars and policymakers have stressed the fact that even though China doesn't have any Arctic geography, its economic interests in the far north, its scientific interests in the far north are extensive. My name is Mark Lentayne, I'm a professor of political science at UIT, the Arctic University of Norway in Tromså. I'm also an adjunct lecturer at the University of Greenland in Newk. It's also been argued that a lot of what's happening in the Arctic in terms of climate

3:01change is affecting China directly, like many other parts of the world. It is creating changes in Chinese weather, pollution patterns, and many Chinese scholars have dedicated themselves to researching that connection. That has been the basis for China referring to itself as a near-Arctic state. We are not an Arctic country per se, but we have a significant claim to be an Arctic stakeholder. China and Russia have been looking at the possibility as more of the Arctic Ocean becomes ice-free in the summer months, using the polar silk road, developing a polar silk road along the northern seerute north of Siberia as a secondary shipping route. China's first official Arctic policy paper was published in 2018 and formally outlined the polar silk road. Those development goals linked to its 2013 Belt and Road initiative to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through land and sea trade routes. Key to the polar silk road is a shipping lane called the northern seerute.

4:06It runs from North-Earn Asia, so past China, Korea, Japan, all along the Siberian coast, that's a very long coastline in northern Russia. Eventually working its way through the Nordic region and then onto northern Europe, including Britain, Germany, Poland, even though it is a pretty long route and one which is still subject to Arctic conditions, it's still far shorter than traditional routes along the Indian Ocean using, for example, the Mlaque Straits or the Suez Canal. So vessels say fuel as well as time. The conditions are certainly not ideal and they're certainly not identical to other parts of the world. Even under a very ideal, let's say, mid-summer conditions, ships still have to be very concerned about floating ice, about very difficult weather conditions. Any ship simply cannot be placed in the northern seerute and have this work out. A ship has to be very specifically rigged for cold weather conditions. More often than not, they have to be escorted by a Russian icebreaker.

5:06Icebreakers are specially designed escorted ships. They split and crack up huge slabs of frozen water to stop vessels getting stuck. Russia has the largest fleet which also includes ones with a unique feature. Russia is the only country that has nuclear-enginened icebreakers at the moment and has a few of them, but it is certainly looking to develop more. Power from compact, onboard nuclear reactors, mean they can break up really thick ice and run for longer without refueling. The cargo onboard the first of China's regular scheduled crossings included rechargeable lithium batteries, solar panels, and electric hybrid vehicles. China has, for example, touted the fact that its economy is now starting to shift more towards high technology areas, including AI, robotics, advanced pharmaceuticals, and interestingly enough, a lot of Chinese media, as well as government officials, so said that these particular components, those that are needed to arrive in European markets quickly,

6:09or that need to be preserved in a certain way, could benefit from using the Northern Sea Route. But I do stress again, this is still a very experimental setup. I think it's very unlikely that the Northern Sea Route would rival the traditional routes, so not the Panama Canal, not the Malacca Strait. And so I don't think anyone is really looking at that option seriously. There's still many Chinese policymakers who are saying even keeping all that in mind, the amount of time and fuel savings by using this route is very extensive, and this will only get better as more time passes, that less and less ice will appear in the Arctic. Some of the ice hazards will vanish. The number of runs each year is expected to increase over time. At the moment, even under the best conditions, we're talking about maybe a few dozen, shipping runs through the Northern Sea Route, and that's a pretty tiny fraction compared to what goes through, for example, the Panama Canal. But we are dealing with a changeable situation. It may be as early as, let's say, 15 or 20 years from now, that ships will be able to operate in the Arctic, for example, all year,

7:11or that ships might even be able to operate close to the North Pole under summer conditions. So there's a bit of timing involved. And with the idea that global shipping is obviously becoming an international concern that many countries are looking at the possibility of alternative sea routes, the Arctic is being taken seriously now as another emerging alternative. So how do China's Arctic ambitions work on a practical level? Time for our next expert witness. Part two. Navigating Russia. I would say it's very hard for me to imagine for any company that it uses the shipping route without any engagement with the Russian authority. And also the Russian has the control of the ports of the facilities along the route. Nan-Hell is a policy and economic security researcher. He's currently doing a fellowship with the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland. Russia traditionally used the route for domestic and regional shipping.

8:14For this route to have the commercial meaning for this route to be utilized, it requires the capital, it requires the maintenance, it requires the infrastructure, it requires the investment, trading, and the Russia doesn't have enough of those. For China, at least for the North and the North, China has the interest, but I would say it can be traced back to say 2013, China started to pay more attention to the North and the North, but it's an actual moment that I would say come from say 2017 when China's President Xi Jinping visited Russia and talked about that. And also 2018, China launched its architect White Paper, but it's an actual moment. The most recent commercialization moment, I would say, it started from last year. In October 2025, Russia and China agreed an action plan to jointly develop and commercialize shipping along the North and Sea route. China pretty much somehow takes care of this kind of commercialization of the sea route. Well, Russia somehow provides all this infrastructure facility access to that.

9:14But also another thing I would say in terms of the stretchative value of this route is that the energy, but this energy part doesn't come from China's shipping company, but it comes from the Russian shipping company. Russia's oil and gas industries faced international sanctions after it annexed Crimea in 2014 and invaded Ukraine in 2022. Opportunities for Russian exports widened, following the US and Israel war with Iran. The conflict has effectively blocked the straight-of-a-mooze, which sits between Iran, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. And there's an energy shortage, energy crisis in Asia-Pacific countries. China somehow is exceptional, but all the major Asia-Pacific economies are heavily relying on the Gulf forzee viewers. And Russia becomes a convenient alternative for them. So in that sense, Northern Sea route is not just something convenient of potential future value, but it also becomes something immediate relevant for them. Other disputed global shipping routes include Red Sea, where oil tankers and commercial cargo ships have been attacked,

10:17and a drought in the Panama Canal calls in fewer journeys. So all these traditional routes that China rely on for the Europe-China trade has facing this potential risk exposure, and is in Northern Sea route definitely getting more relevance and also getting more strategic value, because for now the Chinese economy is heavily relying on the foreign trade, external trade. So in that sense, the strategy so far, I think, the major part for China to invest and to test the Zizirut, which involves working within its seasonal restrictions. First of all, the time window is actually very narrow, so it's either from July, August to October, November, and also, I think, last year and this year, Russian authority only approved like seven to eight annually shipings for the Chinese company, and also if you look at the percentage of the trading goods of the Chinese shipping companies, the percentage is actually very low in relation to the trade volume through the traditional routes, say, the Swiss cannons, through the middle corridor. So in that sense, the potential is there, but for it to realize, I think it is still tax time.

11:19Increasing vessel traffic on the remote Arctic route raises the risk of human driven environmental damage. I would say this comes as two-fourth, or you could say the two edges of the sword. So indeed, there are climate change, the Northern Zirut becomes a little bit more visible, and the time window becomes a little bit widened with the melting of the ice in the Arctic region. So we can imagine if there's a leakage of the oil, if there's contamination of the water, and if there's a human intervention that is impacting the ecology of the Arctic region, Earth's ecology is connected, and something happening there in the Arctic region would have the imbiblication and consequences for the rest of the world. But I think with more countries and more shipping companies involved in this route, perhaps we'll also need to think about potential expansion or reformation of this governance mechanism to try to govern this new phenomena, which is the commercialization of the Northern Zirut.

12:20It's fall in America, make it count, at the Ram Drive-In Default Sales event, make it powerful with our strongest Ram 1500 ever, make it move with the Ram Heavy Duty with an available Cummins diesel, and make it go the distance with a 10-year or 100,000-mile powertrain limited warranty. Hurry and now for great deals during the Ram Drive-In Default Sales event, excludes fully electric vehicles applied to 2026 model-year vehicles non-transferable, visit moepar.com for complete details and a copy of the powertrain limited warranty, Cummins is a registered trademark of Cummins Inc. Ram and Hemi are registered trademarks of FCA US LLC. With a new Schwab teen investor account, teens can gain hands-on investing experience. And build positive money habits. It's an account co-owned by you and your teen, so you can monitor and engage with the account while your teen learns how to invest and manage money. Learn more at Schwab.com Before we hear from our next expert witness on the complexities of Arctic governance, don't forget to find and follow the inquiry podcast wherever you get yours. For episode like, are the Himalayan glaciers at a tipping point or can Africa take control of

13:23its digital future? Part 3 Arctic Rules No country has sovereignty over the Arctic as a whole. My name is Katashenaz, this guy, my professor of international relations and contemporary history in Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, which is a part of the National Defense University. There are eight Arctic states five border the Arctic Ocean, Russia, Norway, Denmark, Canada and the US. Regional control divides across national laws and economic zones, which gives coastal states exclusive rights to explore and extract marine resources, like oil, gas and minerals. Plus, there are international laws and treaties. You and Convention of the Law of the Sea is very important. It's almost like a constitution for the maritime or Arctic Ocean, which governs some of the different, let's say, sovereign rights. They write the resources and how we may use the waters in the Arctic Ocean.

14:26But also the international maritime organization and the polar code that is especially important for ships operating in the polar waters, because it imposes concrete regulatory measures for ships operating in Arctic and Antarctic. And so, this has direct implications also for shipping along the Northern Sea. It's particularly important because it directly decides about ship design, construction, so the kind of ships where they can operate safety, life-saving, appliances, navigation communication. This all is included in this polar code that has to be applied when operating in the Arctic Ocean. And Russia complies with that? Yes, absolutely. Russia is a part of that. But in addition, Russia imposes its own laws along the Northern Sea routes, for instance, including the man that you have to apply for it to be able to use the passage.

15:28Service, operational and admin charges also apply. With different laws and rights covering territorial and international waters, interpretations can vary. There are also the high seas, 200 nautical miles beyond national borders, where no nation has sovereignty. The Northern Sea can be many different routes depending on the sailing conditions on the weather conditions. But from the Russian interpretation, as long as you start in one end and finishing the other, so even if at some point the passage would include high seas, Russia would still claim that this is the Northern Sea route under the Russian National Transcription, where Russian rights apply. It is actually quite controversial and it's not universally accepted interpretation. As a result of the growing accessibility of the Arctic Ocean, they have a potential to become strategically important both for commercial navigation, as well as potential for military use. And the Northern Sea route is the first route that is

16:32being developed, both for climatic reasons, because it's opening fastest, then the transpolar route or the route through the Canadian Archipelago at the Northwest Passage. And for political reasons, because Russia is very much interested, this is one of their greatest ambitions for Arctic development, is to make the Northern Sea route a major mountain link between continents, between Asia, Europe and North America. Other states in the region are keeping across developments. Concern about Chinese footprints and investments in the Arctic has been quite now lost in concern in the Northern countries. And one example of that are investment screening mechanisms that were introduced in Sweden, the measures to screen what kind of these measurements are being made, what is the source for this purpose also increased sharply in Norway as well as in Finland. And this is made to safeguard against potentially harmful Chinese investments, especially when it comes to strategic fields, such as infrastructures,

17:34such as ports or airfields. Some of the investments were simply stopped because of that. So on the other hand, China is an important trading partner. And of course, in the larger, if you look at the broader Arctic governance picture cooperation with China is very important to mitigate for instance environmental risks, to enhance maritime safety in the region. So this is a balancing act, but there is no doubt that the suspicion towards China, Chinese investments have been vocally expressed, discussed in the Nordic countries over the past years. So there's some on these about China and China's links with Russia. And that feeds into this long-standing fear of Chinese-Russian alliance, right? And the relationship in the Arctic is one expression of progressing relationship. And this relationship has progressed not least because of the growing Russian dependency of China. China is the

18:37actor that helps Russia to keep their economy afloat. The dependency does not mean that the relationship is still seen in Russia as quite ambivalent. So Russia has had long-standing concern, if not fear, about China potentially becoming a constituted direct threat to Russia. But still, I mean, this doesn't mean that Russia is not willing, nonetheless, to allow China larger up in the Arctic because again, this is growing dependency. China isn't the only country keen on advancing polar ambitions. Time to call our final expert witness. Part four, making waves. My name is Karen Van Loon and I'm a research fellow in the Security and Defense program at the Klingdale Institute in the Netherlands.

19:38I think the most credible outcome is that for a country like China, this creates a redundancy. So say there is one of the chalk points, Suez Canal, sort of, or Mous Malacca that is blocked, that they have a plan B and a sort of backup. And the Northern Sea roots can be useful in that sense. It will also create a greater presence in the Arctic region, something that China is aiming for in the future anyway. So this will give them a bit more presence there, but also economic credibility as a trade partner in the region. We see that currently China is still the largest investor along the Northern Sea root, but there's also an increased interest from South Korea. In August this year, a South Korean commercial container ship used the root for a test voyage. And we also see that India has plans to have one season in 2027. And there's also Japan that might be interested in doing more in the region. So this is still very limited and contained, but yet it creates a diplomatic precedent and it gives Western European countries who have

20:42very good trade relations with both of these countries, something to think about and to see how they relate to this type of behavior because they can do trade with a partner like South Korea, but it's the use of that Russian sea root and Russian control over it that poses issues of course. There are quite some countries that already have vessels with ice-breaking capacities. China is building them, for example South Korea as well, and part of Busan would be very keen on having more transit and ships being built there for this exact purpose. And now we also see an interest from India. Do you see a time when more countries will consider using the Northern Sea root? For the time being, geopolitically speaking, it's very tricky, especially for Western countries. We see that there's a war in Ukraine that is still ongoing, Russia is under sanctions. Some of the countries may receive that have passed through the Northern Sea root and that's

21:43passed by their ports, but Western initiatives, I don't think, will be seeing in the near future. The fact that more and more countries, Asian countries are seeing this as a viable option, of course, presents the other Arctic nations with the facts that they are going along with Russia's interpretation of international law of the sea along the roots, which does not align with how Western countries interpret it. It gives a certain credibility to Russia as an Arctic actor, of course, is because it doesn't consider a ball Arctic territory, but you create a judicial precedent where ships are going through this route when Western countries are clearly refusing to do so for geopolitical reasons. So it is there. It is an option that certain countries which do explore, but it's also a route that many other countries do not really seem fit for regular transits or as a dependable option. So currently I'm close to remain in a niche, seasonal route.

22:46If you look at the amount of transits, full transits through the Northern Sea root last year, there were only a hundred and three compared to 12,000 through the Suez Canal in a year that was extremely geopolitically challenging, so this will still be a minor route. So I don't think for Western ports that this will have a significant impact in the coming years. For China, it's very useful to have these different roads and routes and options in case something else happens, so they're willing to invest in this seasonal line of transit and a schedule and having a regular schedule, but it won't keep them from using the other routes that they are using more intensively. I think we will see an increase in China's commercial ambitions in the Arctic. We will have to see how their relationship with Russia is evolving, but I think we see a beginning of a larger trend of China's presence in the Arctic, click on the larger and larger and this is part of the footprint that they want to leave in the region. So returning to our main question, can China's polar

23:49silk road change global trade? While the Northern Sea root does grow China's activity in the Arctic, it's a seasonal limited run back up, not a large-scale commercial rival. For some shipping companies, it's an attractive time and fuel saving alternative, which bypasses severe disruptions on established shipping routes. Needing Russian cooperation to use and navigate the route means the operation won't be global while international sanctions remain in place. Last word to our expert witness, Nan-Hell. Now I think there are a lot of discussion about this Northern Sea root, but I will say if one look into the trade data and also the actual difficulty, I will say the Northern Sea root is a little bit overheated. Of course, it has a strategic value there, but still, I think for it to be physically used for it to be regularly commercialized,

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