Ca$htag$: Shopify’s (SHOP) Stock Dip Offers New Value Opportunity

0:00time now for our cash tag segment for that we want to bring in our next guest and that's landed this one co-founder of like folio taking a look at shopify today all right uh land and shopify getting dinged once again today has it had a great year so far what a sentiment look like now though yeah i mean if you look at uh you know how well it's done one of the best days it has was last uh last quarter it reported and plus 31 percent revenue the stock shot up and then dropped you know pop and drop one of those uh where that where it ended up lower on the day even though it had good news and and since then the stock is actually down a little bit since that earnings report so we're a little bit cheaper than we were a quarter ago uh the data on it is generally continuing to be stellar from from every angle that we've got there is a little bit of a slowdown um you know we saw this last year where there's a little bit of a ramp up just in the holiday season in the new year and then it slightly flattens out and then it continues its trajectory we're seeing that again uh with shopify data not sure if it's it's seasonal for

1:02it's just kind of a coincidence but uh we are seeing that again but it's really strong i mean the web data alone is up 65 percent on a year over your basis which is incredible because you know normally we talk about well it but we put a caveat on that because last year was low and so don't read too much into it that's not the case with shopify they've been crushing it uh for a while now so plus 65 percent on a company that's already been growing very quickly is is obviously very strong um but yeah the stock has been pulling back uh and so now investors are saying you know is this worth it here um are we looking at a value play and and i would argue that you probably are looking at a value play uh this has been a pretty positive name within the like folio universe for quite a while um and you know again when we look at the data it's very strong web metrics very strong consumer happiness merchants talk about ease of use uh increasing conversions increasing stickiness uh they're able to get more out of their customers either more sales or more dollar per sale it's just basically like an easy button uh for starting a business or or for making your

2:08business better then you can sort of compare it i mean these it's tough to tough to say who really competes directly with shopify because they're so unique but you can kind of get an idea of where they're at versus some of their peers here i mean obviously they are a big big standout and so everything that we've seen is doing well and even even if you look back at the earnings report they talked about their offline sales are up 31 percent so everything that they're doing is is going really well um it's a it's a good pullback in the stock and i think it's an opportunity but they are by far the clear leader and they're not stopping i mean they they made things a lot easier for merchants to get started now they're getting into agentic commerce uh they're they're it looks like they may be dominating that with the universal commerce protocol progress partnership with google and so i think that that's going to be big for them as well um and so yeah everything that we've got from web data app usage um social mentions and happiness is very positive on shopify

3:09land and this is another one of those situations where like folio's data is really shining a light on what shopify does not only in comparison the year over year change where that graph you can't really hide from the strength of the shopify on that graph but the next uh tile which is where the stock is down but the actual web visits are staying are higher to at least flat and so that's a lot of positive that's that divergence that we talk about between the chart or the price action and the activity so i read the same thing that that you did about agentic AI there uh be be to be gross uh merchandise value up 84 percent this is a company doing so well i have nothing negative you can say about this company from everything i read why do you think the stock has struggled so much

4:10landed well i think i love this chart that we've got up here and if you look at this the the blue line is the the like folio data the uh the white dotted line is the stock price and you can kind of see that it did get it a little bit out of sync where you could argue that it was overbought in in maybe late summer early fall of 2025 and so maybe it did get a little overextended but this pullback seems to be a bit extreme uh and so the stock or the the data has continued on its way you can kind of see it's flattened out a little bit but go back to that January of 2025 and the same kind of pattern happened uh so i'm not sure if people are just you know they have some new years resolutions in their business and things get pumping on that and then they kind of step back and then they get going again in in April and May uh if that's going to happen again it looks like that's probably the case but even if it's not even if it's we're just a little bit more flat right now um the divergence that we're looking at is really significant so uh this is the clear leader uh in a space that's growing very quickly and you've got a stock that's sold off and it's

5:16i think it's honestly i think it's a bit oversold um i also i also really think that what they're doing with google uh with this ucp is is setting them up to be the winners in agentic commerce because now i know that open a i has their own but you're talking in their partner with strike but you're talking about the leader of search which is google in there and integrating a i into all of their search and the leader in e-commerce which is Shopify coming together and saying hey we've built this protocol that's going to help users uh discover products is going to help them buy it's going to help them help the merchants identify customers take payments uh initiate the post payment workflows all of that stuff and you've got people co you know signing on to this like target and Walmart i mean they're they're winning this battle of the protocol for a i commerce and that is going to be huge i mean right now we're seeing social commerce is basically uh tracking to be one in six online sale dollars and so and i think that's going to continue to go up

6:19and if you look at that versus a i commerce those two things are going to be going so quickly that they've got the recipe for exactly how to do it so if you're a merchant and you're like i wish we could get some sales from a i chat uh well here's the way to do it and of course if you're going to go through the the protocol that they created you're going to use Shopify uh and the the main sponsor that or the main creator that is the the leader in search google so between those two it's just such a huge win um and you know it's accelerating so quickly in just the last years orders from a i searcher up 15x i think that number is going to continue to go and i think frankly that a i search is going to replace uh general web search in the future and all nearly all the web commerce that was coming in is going to move over to a i commerce and so they're they're establishing themselves as a leader i think it's going to pay off huge dividends uh in the years to come i don't i wonder if it will totally take over because i mean listen i i can see both cases

7:21for shopping whether it's the AI agent side or traditional you know i like to shop so i'm just saying like you can see the use cases for both sides of this but i am it is a head scratcher for me as well just like Kevin with regard to the divergence between what you all are seeing in terms of sentiment versus how shares are trading so the question is what is the market telling us about Shopify is there really a concern you know i know you're saying that the uh threat of AI agents is it shouldn't be as much of as a concern as it seems to be but is it you know is it really something to pay attention to as it relates to Shopify and is there something to be said about you know kind of just the bigger picture and worries about the consumer and inflation does that come into any of your analysis at all land and yeah i think so and and just to be clear on on the search i'm talking about AI search replacing web search i still think that people are going to go to their direct websites and they're going to search and shop on those websites but i'm saying when they're trying to discover a new product i think that AI is going to take over over the next

8:23few years because it's just better it's like google versus dog pile in two thousand in 1995 right or Yahoo i mean it's it's crazy how much better the the results are getting so i think it will replace that over time but people definitely are going to go to their favorite merchants directly but when you look at with the the bear case right i mean uh the the bull case is the fact that they've still got b2b growing well they on the offline is doing well international expansion those are all things that could grow really well they've got online nailed obviously but those are the the other elements that are continuing to grow uh the the bearish case i think is tariffs uh inflation uh consumer weakness or stress um you know we always talk about that case shaped economy and some merchants are crushing some merchants are struggling but um i think that's the the bear case is it's a bit of a you know fear thing is like maybe tariffs get worse maybe inflation uh ramps back up uh maybe the consumer gets really stressed and shops less uh but overall

9:23i think that you know the things that they have going for them are more solid and the things that the arguments against them are more what ifs uh and so again where we're at it's it's a big divergence play with the bullish case to the upside all right thank you land and that's land is what co-founder like folio with the latest look across sentiment data for Shopify you