C.J. Stroud BETS ON HIMSELF! Texans QB Turning Down $50M+ Is a HUGE Gamble

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1:02Investing involves risk. Performance not guaranteed. Paid client ad. Views may not be representative. See App Store and Google Play reviews. Learn more at Betterment.com slash ambassadors. CJ Strout in Houston would not get an extension sign before week one. Is it the right or wrong move from Strout? You are locked on Texans. Your daily podcast on the Houston Texans. Part of the locked on podcast network. Your team every day. For a start of your time today's episode in every episode of the Locked on Texan podcast is for Texan fans all around. So whether you're in your car driving to work from work at the putting an all night of overnight shift or driving to drop off the kiddos that they care today's episode is exactly for who you are. The greatest Texan fan base in the world. I'm your Texans contentual media member for about analyst. I'm Hickman and again shout out my every day. It's from him and L.A.S. for making the Locked on Texan podcast. You're first listen of the day.

2:04A very important conversation that we need to talk about today. And that's CJ Strout. But I'm going to close off today's part with a discussion centered around which weapon just step up the most this year. Like is that a guy that we're looking at this office of roster? At least for me, I'm going to say offensively. And the expectation for those or that player rather is a little bit higher than the year prior. I got a couple of guys in mind but really one that stands out. So excited to talk about that. The expectation for Strout in a year where he says he's going to bet on himself. Numbers, leaderships, everything needs to align for Strout to come up on top. Right? That's the second segment. The second segment is going to be centered around the fact that for CJ Strout, he's comfortable betting on himself. Texans have a Monday contract for the next two seasons. And then after that, a decision has to be made. And so I think it's important for us to really dive into what does that look like from

3:05in terms of what the quarterback market is now, what the quarterback market will be in 2028. And ultimately for CJ Strout, how betting on yourself could be great for Strout and great for the Texans or bad for Strout and still pretty good for the Houston Texans. Let's go ahead and dive right into it. CJ Strout will not be signing an extension with the Texans before the season begins per reports at Houston Offer Strout at contract exceeding $50 million annually. But he's going to bet on himself to hopefully reach that number near 60 million per year. And then we follow a VSBN reported that several people with knowledge of the situation will be strut as prepared to play this season without a new deal. Despite Houston making what is considered a competitive offer, follow said my understanding is Houston is prepared to put Strout in what it feels like a strong place among the top 12 quarterbacks in the 50 million dollar club.

4:05And this thing has kind of grown legs over the last 24 to 48 hours and it's taken off right because on Tuesday, Cicero essentially gave CJ Strout and his camp until the end of the week. But definitely for sure before week one of the regular season game to get a deal done, right, that was discussed that at the press conference with the media on Tuesday. And now we get this news where Strout is like, you know what? I'm going to do my own thing, right? I'm going to trust. And I know Strout. Trust in the law. I'm going to trust my fate. I'm going to do me and I know that I'm going to come on on top. That's what it feels like in for CJ Strout. He's kind of been about business this entire off season. Hasn't joked a lot. Hasn't smiled a lot. Has been football. Football. Football. And you like that, right? I think that's a good thing. I kind of wish we got a little bit more of the funds strut back just a little bit, but I understand it right now. His camp in the Houston, Texas, why I'm sure everything is cordial when it comes to that money. And when it comes to talking to him, millions and millions and millions of dollars, you can

5:08be cordial. You can be friends, but there's some war going on because both sides want their side to come on on top. Right? And so let's keep in mind top tier NFL quarterback contracts are projected to surpass 60 million to 65 million dollars per year by 2028. And again, reports indicate Strout is comfortable playing out the 2026 season with without a long term deal. Now the overall NFL salary cap climbs towards an estimated 330 million dollars or more by 2028. Historically speaking, just historically speaking, the spending trends indicate top contracts will continue to occupy roughly 15 to 20% of the team's total cap space. Okay? And so I look at the quarterback surrounding the league. I look at the quarterback like Trevor Lawrence. His 2026 cap hit of 24 million dollars is about 7.74% of the NFL's salary cap.

6:14However, we know his five year because these teams, they manipulate years in terms of contracts where he can be low one year and how the next and they continue to kind of create these extensions so they can manipulate their salary cap. But his five year 275 million dollar contract extension averages 55 million dollars per year, which equals roughly 19 to 20% of a standard single year salary cap based on current values. So that's 19 to 20% that press got, which is the only 60 million dollar quarterback in the NFL by year. You're looking at 2024. He's at 17% a little bit over 17%. He's at 15.25 right now. He was at between 16.5 and 18%. Just a little bit over 16%. 2026 is a little bit lower. You get to 2027 where his cap hit jumped to 76 million dollars. You're looking at between 23.2 and 23.5% of the total cap space.

7:18So the money is going to continue to grow, but the quarterback market is going to grow with it. These numbers are inevitable. And I think that's really why Houston Connell want to get ahead of that now because on 2028 rolls around where that press got sits now at 60, 60 million, it's going to be the norm. So for Caleb Williams, a drag may who's a second up and run up and MVP and a super low playing quarterback, those numbers are going to be normal for his time to pay those quarterbacks because the cap is just jumping. And because of the trends, you typically will pay your quarterback between 16, 15, 16 percent to 20 percent. That's where Straal wants to be. I think that's where David Mulligan get it wants to get his client because they know and we'll play under the fifth year option. So we'll take this year, which is year four, we'll take next year, which is year five. We'll play my quarterback is doing everything that needs to be done for you guys to believe

8:19that beyond 2028, he's the franchise quarterback, but just know you're not going to lowball my client now because we know what's inevitable. We know what's coming. And that's that 2028 jump. But again, when we look at the pros and cons of CJ Straal betting on himself, is he right? Is he wrong? We have to wait and see, right? The season has to play out, but pros and cons, there's two more words that needs to be attached to that conversation. And that's leverage and ammunition, the pros. His approach for CJ Straal balling out while betting on himself. I say he balls out that post season run is a memory. It's a thing of the past. He's going to earn himself because he balls out in a year that he bests on himself. He's going to earn himself a good chunk of money, a very good chunk of money. And I think what he's looking to be annually wise, I think he's looking to be paid like a top six and seven quarterback. Now I know what that conversation is going to spin off into.

9:23So let's take a round because I'll dive a little bit more into that in a second segment. But again, considering what the cap and market for quarterbacks will be in 2028, Straal wins. Plus, if Straal performs, I'll put it to you like this. I don't think the Texas will have a problem if Straal goes out there and gives back to 2023 and beyond. If those numbers are similar to the floor, Sam Donnell, the ceiling, Drake May in a year, right? And I think those are two different style of quarterbacks, but I'm saying numbers and impact alone, if Straal resembles what those two quarterbacks were able to do for their teams respectively and listen, they both made it to the Super Bowl. The Texans are going to be like, you know what, we got to pay him. He bettered himself. And we got our guy. The cons to all of this again, leverage and ammunition.

10:24There's a repeat of last season, which gives Houston a reason to low ball, Straal, given the fact that they hold all the leverage. And again, how does losing that leverage and ammunition for Straal looks like? Is it because the stats don't match? Maybe they can live with that. Is it because there's another disastrous postseason? I don't think Straal or the Texans can live without again. Or worst of all, injury. Keep in mind, Straal has missed five games due to concussions. So this is a dangerous game that I think Straal is playing, but it's also a game that I think is maybe the most rewarding for a quarterback down the line. We've seen Kirk Cuts just do it, right? We've seen Joe Flacco do it. And in some ways, we've seen that press got do it, what I just talked about. So there is, at the end of the row, there is a go to the end of the row, right? If you, as a quarterback, do what needs to be done.

11:24And I think for Straal, many people may doubt that from CJ Straal. And I can completely understand it. I'm one of those people that feels like, hey, I'm glad he's saying that he's bettered on himself because he looks like he's going to come out on top. Now what are the expectations for Straal in the year that he's betting on himself? To me, numbers never lie and numbers matter. Stick around for more Texas talk on today's part. All right, Texas fans, listen, please get Chautille to the Reliance Stadium. Please this season. Like, don't be late. Right, but if it's reliant, if it's Toyota, if it's Indie concert, no matter what it is, one place is where you need to be shopping for your tickets. And that's game time. There are more live events than ever we're seeing right now. Games, concerts, comedy shows, festivals, right?

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13:30a using text and game and checkout game time download the game time app, create an account and use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again, create an account and redeem code L O C K E D O in for $20 off download game time today. Let's get back to talking Texans and specifically CJ Stroud. What are the expectations for Stroud this year and next year? We cannot look at this thing in a scope of just 2026. It's 2026 and 2027. That's how long the Houston Texans have him under contract and it seems like for Stroud, if he's betting on himself, he's betting on himself for this year and next year. So that will 2028 rolls around. It's undeniable. He's one of the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL. We've seen him have a lot of good moments, right? For me, a lot of us point to 2023, but I think what Stroud was able to do in various parts

14:36of 2024 was impressive considering that there was no thing to up and down that season. Stefan Diggs went down early, right? And then we also have to consider that was a year where he was sacked was nearly 60 times. So there was some throws that I think CJ Stroud made on the run that was extremely impressive. I think because of that year, because of the amount of hits, because I believe it was him and Caleb Williams the most pressure quarterbacks in the NFL, I think we saw CJ Stroud take a step back in terms of having faith in the ability to step into pocket in Thunderball. That's one of the things that I think this year, I can't grant it, you're not going to hit a quarterback or turn a camp. I got those red jerseys on. But you do see him at least a practice. You do see him stepping up into the pocket to deliver throws. And I'm looking for that accurate quarterback to return. So when I talk about expectation for Stroud, right? It's the small things that are really big things. And that's just him getting back to being one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.

15:37That's simple. And then you look at the addition of K-Shine and Boutane, I think to myself, well, and I get what to talk about K-Shine a lot more. I see Stroud in the best version of CJ Stroud that we've seen. In the NFL, right? I mean, I'm looking at 2023 right now at the top of the list. CJ Stroud nearly 1300 passing yards on 20 and more yards down the field. 90-0 in exceptions. 19.8 yards per 10. Stroud was electric on deep passes. I get to 2024 and we're just CJ Stroud ranked on that list in 2024. 34th in the NFL. He goes from one to 34th. I said 33 ranking drop-off, right? And then I look at 2025, where Stroud on this list? 37th. So he's gradually gotten worse each year, granted he's missed some time.

16:40He missed some time in 2025, but he missed some time in 2023 as well. What I'm getting at is K-Shine is going to unlock. And I truly believe this. I don't know if we'll see it right away. I do think that Stroud and Kaylee, they're all going to be on the same page. They're going to come out at some point in their first game against Buffalo and try the defense. But I think we're going to see K-Shine really be the catalyst into getting Stroud back from 37 and 33 back to being around that top 10 quid back on passes 20 and more yards down the field. But I think that's what we're going to see. And that expectation combined with my belief that because of the offensive line is a lot better. With Keenan Rutledge at left guard, Evan Brown has sent in the communications better in Stroud having the fake two step up in the quarterback. That should allow for Stroud to be one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, which is what I think he's gotten away from the last year as he's a Stroud was. I think 14th and off target grows in the NFL.

17:42Combined with being 37th in the NFL, 20 more yards down the field. Right. And so these are some of the things that I want to see from CJ Stroud in 2026. And these are also some of the things that I think he's worked on. If you look at some of the training camp highlights this year or the days where media members have said, oh, the office has had a good day. Oh, CJ Stroud looks sharp. He's connecting with quarter. Excuse me. He's connecting with receivers and weapons down the field. And so I have this conversation with my brother all the time, guys. And he says that those numbers at the 30 touchdowns of 4000 4000 passing yards. We won't see that this year because the offense isn't going to act CJ Stroud to do those things. The offense isn't going to put CJ Stroud in the situation or predicament where he's throwing a ball for more than 28 times in the game. And I say to that, that's not true.

18:44I don't believe that. I don't believe that. I think in 25, that was the expectation, especially as the season went on because for some reason the CJ Stroud alluded to it. May Higgins wasn't listening to things. We're just clicking for him right away. Jellin Ool had his struggles and issues and Christian Kirk was the veteran that may have been a bit more savvy and understood the nuances of the offense and the ticker off for him to start playing snaps. But that always confused me because it felt like of all of the receivers that played last year. Obviously, Nico's number one, but it felt like Stroud and Jellin Ool was on the page more than any other receiver. Not named Nico Collins. So that's an indication on where Nick Kelly was as a play collar. Hopefully he gets away from there. That's also alluding to this third segment. But I don't think the Texas are going to box in CJ Stroud. I think that's a ridiculous start. I think yes, the Texas brought in David Montgomery and the expectation is for Montgomery to have 220 carries plus more.

19:46Yes, Woody Marx looks amazing and he's going to be involved in a run game heavily and look good and at one preseason series where he scores and runs for 9.1 was 9.6 yards per carry. Yes, the Texas going to run it ball. But I also think if you want to see the fuller study office and listen to me, hear me good. You need CJ Stroud to be at his best. The fact of the matter is if the Texans are a team that Stroud is only throwing the ball between 18 to 23 times in the game, 18 to 25 times in the game, then that means the Texas are running the ball a lot and good defense will pick up on that. And they go stack the box and they're going to have their DBS play, you know, maybe play off a Nico, everybody else played the tight to the line, bump off. And you live whatever you live with because it's going to be pressure in the face of CJ Stroud because of that stack box. But you want Stroud to play at such a high level where the box is a little bit lighter. And it's allowing for the runner backs to have a lot more space and opportunity to get busy.

20:50And it's in this CJ Stroud and at office and the passing office constantly putting the pressure on defense is now why I see the running game really benefiting. I see that excuse me where I see the CJ Stroud really benefiting from the running game is then the, you know, I don't think the Texas are going to be in a lot of those certain long situations. I don't. But ultimately my expectation for Stroud this year is what everybody's expectations should be any lead quarterback a top 10 quarterback. Was he that last year? Was he that all the way maybe in some areas, but not as a whole. We need to expect that going into his second year, all of the buzz and the good things coming out of training camp will translate into 17 games of a regular season. And the numbers follow and the close to 30 touchdowns follow and the 4,000 yards follow in a top 10.

21:51Let's let's go top 13 scoring office excluding field goals follows that's what a year a successful year from a quarterback betting on himself looks like you don't bet on yourself and then turn it to Trent Dillford. You don't bet on yourself notice respect and Trent Dillford, but you don't bet on yourself and turn it to some of these game managing quarterbacks that are looking over their shoulders because there's a young guy behind them or or or God that maybe can step in and do some of the same things you're doing and that's essentially not losing the game. You expect the quarterback looking to go get this contract to be able to have all of the tools physically mentally and quarterbackically to be able to win you games. That's the expectation for me for Cedar sharp and I'll tell you what. I was right about stride last year. I don't know man look he's looking down man I don't know about this truck and then we saw what happened I was right on straw last year.

22:53Lock in with the lock throw text the pockets I'm going to be right up on a broad stride this year is where I think stride is going to put the Houston Texans office in a position to where while he's betting on himself the rest of the office thrives because he's playing at a better rate at a higher level of football than we've seen. And maybe the last 25 games from CJ strong going back to maybe 28 now which weapon should step up the most this year. Let's stop into that before we close our today's pockets. All right Texans listen before we dive into the player that should step up the most. I'll tell you something college football fans it's time to put your knowledge to the test with college football pick them from fan do it each week you can make 10 free against the spray at picks finish one of the weeks top pick totals and you can win a share of $500,000 in bonus best man that's sweet.

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25:03Texas fans listen I forgot to give you guys some numbers on C.J. Stroud so. Shut out to Texans Jacob from weeks for to 18 last season C.J. Stroud finished fourth in adjusted EPA per play fit in EPA per play 11th and success rate 17 TDs five in the 70 95 97.2 pass rate again you want those numbers to be extended across 17 games at a height level if you get that from C.J. Stroud I think bed known himself is going to turn out to be a great thing not only for stride. But again I think we also have to recognize that is tried in the best of you know there's a fan base like stride right now I don't think they do I think some do I think some don't. But if you get stride who's out there and he's back to any former that 2023 season to be on the fan base single have no reason to complain because he's back at it right and I think again we're going to see that.

26:13Here's also some interesting numbers Texans in turn brown when when turn brown and C.J. Stroud played together last year five games the offense 15th in the EPA per play 9th and EPA per dropback 17th and dropback success rate this is where it gets kind of you know shady 22nd and success rate 26th and Russian EPA 28th and Russian success rate percentage but the Texas D. go five and knowing those games going 20 plus each of those games. The healthy trip brown plus David Montgomery a refined Woody marks and just got a keen on brothers to that punch right this those rushing success numbers should look a lot differently this year which weapons just step up the most I think it's easy minutes two guys. David Montgomery is number one sometimes we can get cute right sometimes we can we can try to beat too smart and and use all of these numbers as to maybe while we can justify another player but no it's David Montgomery number one they brought him in to be what he was needed last year and what he's in gotten 2024 they brought him in to replace not what he marks so mixing.

27:26They need that right they need that they need that running back that is a decent short yard situations and also think they need that running back that is a. Back that excels in passing situations when given the opportunity they need that. That's what David Montgomery is and that's what the Houston Texas need for him to be. We know that David Montgomery is going to be a very important piece for this offense that's not glance over it and again I think Woody marks is going to have a significant role for this offense no doubt about it but Montgomery is here now number two though right and it kind of sucks because I would have chosen the player in the same draft class set out the J and he can speed recovery but for me number two is J. It's going to be some time before we see take note right when we even talked about it he's going to kick off the season on I.R. with the designation to return you know maybe we see him and I said maybe we'll see him in the first game against the Tennessee Titans which feels like the easier game to introduce him back to the game with right Tennessee who who's Tennessee right there team that complains about the jerseys then you stole the colors and you know all that's what that's what Tennessee does.

28:45But it feels like that every game until then man like Jellin or has an opportunity to really see me himself as a trusted playmaker from CJ Stroud I think again I think he got some of those moments last year didn't get enough of those moments last year for stride in this offense what do they need they're going to need. He needs a neco college moving around the office this year I want to see more that X zero from neco college compared to the past was been more than X I want to see K. Sean Bouta be that true extra see her only outside that just does all of his damage and work from the outside. He should be the guy that gets in where he fits in but we got to remember Jellin was pick pretty high last year around pick last year and he has a tools to be a burner alright and so I think for this offense we talk about players that need to step up this year from a gunry it's really just be Montgomery but I think Texas need for him to step into this role and step up in this role even though this is first year but a true a player who truly needs to step up the most where there's a lot of things that I'm going to do.

29:52There's no Jane Higgins tank down won't start the season right and this is still I don't know what you were ranked this while receiving room but I think it still has question marks compared to other rooms around the league while I like it now with the addition of butte it's jailing all needs to assert himself a lot this year not granted and it can he needs to assert. She doesn't know a lot more this year and make sure that he's involved in every week's game plan because I do think he's a talent I do think he's a weapon and he needs to be used as one and I'm not talking about a bunch of just we saw the time and just orbit plays i'm talking about this is a guy that I think is a three level receiver where the screen games look a lot differently if you involve him in there from the slot position where if you need to use him as a crosser and I will see this trials I think most successful route from last year. Crosser from the slot this year where he can pick up 10 on a go and then get up feel get some extra yak yards or just he's blazing somebody off the LOS line of scrimmage and he's beating up for 20 25 yards down a field that's what you want to see from jailing know this year I can't wait to see how he's incorporated within this office thank you for watching the listen to today's episode of the like on text and podcast please be sure to subscribe like you comment on YouTube wherever you listen to your podcast give me up on Twitter if you need to let me know how you feel about these days trials.

31:13Crosser contract situation John underscore he can do the same thing on Instagram some sports guy with two eyes at the end until next time there's an interest text of fans across the nation peace. And they're game if you're right you'll receive a profit boost to use on your next bet for a chance at extra winnix best of all you can make a free pick every day throughout the MLBC's so you're ready to play your game today join all the action at fan dole dot com that's fan dole dot com to play daily dingers and make your free pick on who's hitting a home play ball and swing for the fences on fandal an official partner of the MLB on cow she you're trading against peers in a live market meaning there's no house and as the probability changes you can buy in and out of your position for a limited time download the cow she app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10 KAL S H I cow she trade on anything 18 plus only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors prices values and

32:27available markets may differ from those mentioned for more information see cow she dot com slash regulatory. Hey NFL fans I'm Brian peacock and that is Matt Williamson hosts of the NFL six pack part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. NFL six pack brings you the latest NFL news and analysis and breaks down all of the weekly action. A six pack of takes daily on the playoff pushed in the 2025 season or if your team's in draft mode yeah we'll hit that to all right here every day on the locked on podcast network the NFL six pack subscribe on YouTube or everywhere you get your podcasts.