Byelection fallout and Alberta’s looming referendum

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1:05in Calgary this week and a 10-question referendum about a month away. The NDPC is deriding that had long been held by the UCP with many political watchers tying the vote to a discontent over the referendum which is seen as a stop to the separatist faction in the governing party. I'm Dave Brakinridge and this is 10-3. Calgary herald columnist Don Brade joins me to discuss the recent bi-election, the looming referendum and what the fallout could be for the premiere. Don't forget you can find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music. I'd love it if you could leave us a rating or review or even tell a friend about the show. So Don, you and I were talking. This Wednesday morning in Alberta, September 16th, lots going on in Alberta politics right now and I feel like we should probably start off with perhaps the big most recent news in politics and that's the bi-election in Calgary Shaw.

2:06And I guess for starters, for listeners, we're a year out from an election. Why were we having a bi-election in Calgary Shaw and what happened on Monday night? Well we were the bi-election because one of Smith's key ministers Rebecca Schultz resigned for personal reasons some time ago and they called the bi-election for the 14th of the month and it was held and most people were there. They didn't really draw much attention. I mean there's a column here and there and people talked about it a bit but it wasn't really drawing much attention because everybody's expected that UCP to just carry it in a cakewalk because this is really hardcore conservative territory in South Calgary. Jason Kenny was tweeting away and talking about how when he ran in that same territory federally and provincially he would get like 75% and it's almost impossible to lose. Well they lost, the UCP lost by when the advance poll votes come in right at the very end of the day when they were slightly had the issue, slightly had the NDP person and then

3:11all of a sudden the advance poll popped the NDP over the top. So it was a shocker but considering the way things are going it shouldn't have been that surprising when Smith is not that popular. There's a new poll out just today that shows that she has only 38% support. That's not much higher than Trump. She's the third most unpopular politician in Canada. So there's all kinds of factors at work here but the main reason in my view is separatism and what I was hearing from that area and from people in the area is that long time progressive conservatives who sort of leaned over to the UCP and they're tongues and went to the UCP are really, really totally ticked off at the division and the uselessness of this whole thing that chaos around the referendum itself. And then you get rather musically after the NDP won to get not even actually taking total

4:15credit and saying it was our vision that people, it wasn't separation, it was our vision. Sorry, it was separation. It wasn't entirely separation because affordability is a big thing with everybody. But that area of the city of Calgary, it's not exactly people are not struggling to buy a loaf of bread there. It's a relatively prosperous area. So yeah, the angst that people are feeling in the UCP ranks in my view was the major propeller of that's really startling defeat by the use for the use of speed. Now we have to point out two days, everybody sort of assumes that Calgary is a big conservative UCP town, but this can account now in Calgary's 26 writings is 15 new Democrats and 11 conservatives. And the other factors as well, I'd like to talk about it. Yeah, I mean, and we will get to that in a second. I do want to touch on the results a little bit from Monday night though.

5:19Like you talk about people being ticked off about this push for a referendum on Alberta's place in Canada and Albertans will go to the polls October 19th. Some people are filling out advance ballots or special ballots now that the question isn't to separate. It's whether you want to stay in Canada or have a binding referendum on separation. What is it about that referendum that's really kind of aggravating Calgary voters? And I guess is how did it manifest on voting day? Is it more people voted for the NDP because they're pissed ticked off about separation or was it that conservative voters which they've done in the past in Calgary. I recall the 2004 provincial election on the whole where the PCs lost a bunch of seats. They didn't lose government, but Calgary voters were kind of fed up and stayed home. Was that the case in Calgary, Sean Monday? Yeah, to a point, you're never going to get this kind of turnout for a bi-election. You get for general election, but it wasn't that the numbers weren't terrible.

6:22People are very interested. All you have to mention separation or separatism in this town of people really, really perk up. We know how things work. We know how people read stuff in our papers and everything. I'll tell you, mention separatism here and you got an automatic readership. People are really, really fixed on this now. So that's why I think that it was a big factor in the bi-election, but there are certainly others as well. But it sends a rocket through Smith's entire caucus. If you can lose Shaw, you can lose anything. And there are seven ministers in this town whose jobs are going to be up for grabs next fall. Not Smith, of course, because she represents Brooks, Medicine, Hat. This is really jolted these people. They're going to be thinking hard about how they approach the whole issue from now on. I would suggest. I mean, aside from NDP leader and head and then she taking credit for the win.

7:27And I know that's kind of natural for parties to do that when they take a victory. What other reaction was there to the win on Monday, either from the UCP or from the upstart progressive Tory party led by former UCP cabinet minister Peter Guthrie or others or even your own thoughts. What were your thoughts on Monday, nice win? Well, one of the things I saw right away was the reaction of people saying on Twitter that it's because of immigrants. They lost this because there's too much immigration into Calvary Shaw. And that kind of stuff, if it comes anywhere near the UCP, it's poised. And they're not going to win an election in Calvary and sort of vastly multicultural Calvary with that stuff. And you mentioned Peter Guthrie's party, the progressive Tory party, which is kind of hilarious.

8:29I mean, they couldn't call it progressive conservative because when he broke away from the UCP and formed his own party, he couldn't call it progressive conservative because the UCP claimed to own that name and they took it to the Elector's Office. Anyway, he ended up calling it progressive Tory party. But if you look at their literature, it says progressive Tory party, your progressive conservative alternative. So they still find a way to get that in there. I think that that party was the single most interesting thing about this by election as a cause for the defeat because they got even though you could corner 100 people in the city and I bet you couldn't find two who could name the party because it just isn't known yet. But they managed to pull a thousand votes, which is not that many, but it was enough to tip them over the top. And so you could say it's a little more complicated because the Liberals actually had some votes as well, but you can actually say that this new party costs the UCP that by election.

9:34And if that were to be the case in Calvary, if they're say a thousand votes in every writing in the next election, the UCP is going to get slaughtered because there were seven writings in the last election that were settled by less than a thousand votes. And now you take a thousand votes for against the UCP or for away from the UCP and these writings. So I think, you know, we could be seeing something really interesting with this party because it could become a kind of early days progressive conservative parties against social credit way back that that tells no far back I go. But I think it hasn't gotten much attention, but I'm guessing that this is could be a real thing. Yeah. And I mean, time will tell and see if for them to get their candidates together and we'll see how that that party shapes up over time. I mean, you mentioned like some broader factors at play, I guess in terms of Calvary, but

10:40I suppose it's Alberta as a whole. And I know when it comes to by elections, you don't always want to put a ton of stock in them when you compare them to the prospect of a general election next fall because sometimes they're just a snapshot in time. But what are you seeing on the ground in Calvary when it comes to any shifts in the political landscape? Well, first of all, the most recent polling shows that the NDP is 10 points ahead of the UCP in Calvary. That comes from Mark Henry, his company called Think HQ. And he and my viewers is that along with Janet Brown, one of the best posters in the province. And his poll for a private clients in July showed that the NDP was at 52% and the UCP at 42%. So if there is a shift going on, it's already happened. It's already in place and it seems to be continuing.

11:44So the UCP has got a problem because of course they lose Calvary, they lose the election. There's no questions about Edmonton. So this is an early warning sign and I think you're going to see internally they're going to take it very seriously and you might see some changes in their whole approaches to the separatism issue. Yeah. And I mean, jumping to the separation issue, as you mentioned, I think that the feelings around this referendum played out in the by-election, we are, as we're recording it, we're just over a month away from the voting day. And Albertans will vote not only on whether they want to remain in Canada or hold a binding referendum on independence. There's nine other questions, some about immigration, some about constitutional matters in Canada. What sense are you getting in Calvary?

12:45You know, you're on the ground there, you're talking to people, you're covering this as we go along about where Albertans are at now and whether that has changed or whether people have become more entrenched in their positions and where things are at at this point a month away from voting day. Well, let's start with the separatists, with the hardcore separatists. They know they're going to lose this, but they're not, this is not, in a way, it's not even the fight anymore. The real fight that's going on behind closed doors is the fight for control of the United Conservative Party. And the separatists are going to lose, there's going to be more votes to stay in Canada than proceed to this other thing. And I think it would be, it doesn't, I'm not taking a really big chance, career chance on saying they're not going to win. But the battles that are going on now within the party are absolutely ferocious. Like the board of the UCP party is controlled by separatists.

13:47The board that the members elect, that premier Smith is the de facto boss of is a majority separatists. There are all over the province when they're conserving the nominations, the separatists are trying to get their people into the nominations to become MLA's. And the whole point there is, of course, to continue with the project afterwards and try to turn the UCP government that we elected in 2023 into a separatist party. And their dream is that Smith will say, oh my gosh, 50 of my caucus members are now separatists. We now have to become a separatist party. I don't think that's going to happen. But the whole thing suggests that it's not going to be over. Now, what kind of chance would they have to win another election if this thing doesn't carry on the 19th of October? And yet the battle in the party goes on.

14:49And I think the gamble that Smith's taken, the danger of it is only starting. It could proceed. Now in November, when they had their annual general meeting also in Calvary, this whole thing is going to come to your head at that AGM. And Smith will argue and probably powerfully that luckily we've got to drop this now, let it go. But they're not going to let it go. When you think about Crocs, you think the classic clock. Did you know there's also a canvas clock, a vegan sweet clock, a coastal inspired style, a style with studs, straps and lots of sass. Honestly, I could keep going with the surprises. You've got to see them for yourself because there is literally a style for every kind of girl. So do your thing and head to Crocs.com or a store near you now. Yamabah Resort and Casino at Sandman Well is bringing the biggest laughs to the stage.

15:53Drake Taboos with Ali Wong on August 28th and 29th. Enjoy Ralph Barbosa's Dry Humor on September 18th and 19th. And don't miss Nikki Glazers on Apologetic Comedy November 19th. Tickets on sale now at Yamabah Theatre dot com. Only at Yamabah Resort and Casino celebrating its 40th anniversary. You in must be 21 to enter. Yeah, I do want to talk a little bit about the AGM or the potential aftermath in a second. But for people who may not be following closely or maybe listening from outside Alberta, what have you, what has the campaign been like so far? I know that there have been some issues with special ballots and there's been debate over who is campaigning and what the campaign on the remain side looks like. What have you been seeing recently? Oh, it's chaotic. This is the single most complicated election I believe that's ever been presented to

16:58Canadian voters anywhere in the country, even nationally. You imagine you're going to the polls and you want to vote and there's 10 questions of order, including these immigration questions and ones about the Senate, all these questions. So you get there and the people ahead of you are all faced with choosing with essentially voting on 10 separate referendums. Every question is its own sheet of paper, which you have to read the preamble to and check off and go through the whole thing. Now some people say, well, I don't like it so I'm just going to vote. No, I'm not going to read any of that stuff. But have you ever heard of or seen an election in Canada where you had to decide on 10 separate questions, at least six of which have got sort of extensive preambles, explanatory preambles. And then at the end of it, the separation question. You know, I think the question about this whole enterprise is one serious question is whether it's going to be seen as valid because there could be such chaos at the polling station,

18:02elections Alberta, underfunded, understaffed, unable to get the 65,000 people they need to do, the 65,000 people they need to administer this. That's more than three times as many as they needed for the last general election. There's some questions about whether they'll collapse under the weight of this. Seriously, and the whole enterprise will be. Now here's what in my view could happen that the separatists will say that the whole thing is invalid. It doesn't count. We want another vote, we want to stand alone, separatism vote, whether they get it or not. But so, you know, and there's this whole question of special ballots, too. You know, the people have been people have been going online and asking for special ballots. Well, I know one person who lives in a building that's been around for 50 years in Calgary and the system wouldn't recognize her address. And she still hasn't received the ballot like two weeks later.

19:03There's supposed to be out within a few days. There's all kinds of people reporting they can't even get a special ballot so they can vote by mail. Yeah, so I don't think it'll be kind of miracle if they pull it off. But I think the last, for the last provincial election, they printed some couple of million ballots. So this one, they've printed a 45 million ballots sheets, 45 million sheets. This is just one little province. Yeah, it is quite an eye popping number when you think about it and when you try and compare it to a provincial election or a municipal election. You mentioned earlier that this is causing a lot of division within the governing party. And as you said, there is an AGM at a UCP AGM in Calgary in late November. There'll be a few weeks after this vote. There's not a leadership review at this AGM. This is not one of those types of AGMs, but they will be talking about policy.

20:05And I imagine like, is there any action that disgruntled separatists within the party could take to move against the leader at this AGM? Are there any machinations that could spell doom for Daniel Smith's political life? Or will it just be kind of a grumble fest for lack of a better world? There has been some stuff coming up online about challenges to the leadership of getting rid of her. But the problem with getting rid of Daniel Smith is that she is the, the, the, the, the oddest thing. She's, she's very skilled politician as we know. And she's very popular with, with the party. She's popular with federalists and she's popular with separates. They like her. They think she's a good leader and they like a lot of the things that she's done apart from all of this. So no, I don't think you're going to see any kind of movement against her, but you will

21:07see this ferocious battle for continuing the separatist project via the elections that will happen at that convention for the party board and other, other such positions. But I don't think, but she will have a very interesting choices to make after the, after the referendum for sure. So the separatist gained more control over the UCP. Could it lead to a collapse because you have federalists in that party who say like I can't be part of this? Does that benefit the NDP long term? Does it benefit Peter Guthrie's party? What do you suppose happens there? And I know it's kind of speculation at this point, but I'm sure that it's something that conservative minded folks in Alberta are thinking about. Absolutely. It could collapse. I'm not so sure. It's quite that strong, but it could lead to major major disruptions that will become public and it'll take us, take us back to the Kenny, Kenny years when the party was

22:09after him to get rid of them and the whole thing was blowing apart because it really will be about ownership of the party. And of course Smith people who they will try mightily to defeat this and they are even now trying to ensure that many, many, many, friendly, you know, federalist, friendly people go to that convention and vote out the separatists on the board. That's the key battle and then of course the other and silvery battles for nominations. But at some point, this kind of tension within a party, I don't think there's anything like it in Canada right now. The two sides are just completely incompatible. You're either federalist or you're not. And this could go the way of, you know, the wild rose or a progressive windsurves in the old days that there could be, there could end up with a big split. And the, the, the UCP would no longer be a majority party in the public mind and, and

23:15all right. And, and I once again, I think that the, that Peter Guthrie's party, that's why Peter Guthrie's party. If he can promote it and get it better known and run a decent campaign, I think that's the party that has a chance to grow. And lastly, as we're recording this, the government dropped a report this morning regarding the cost of separation. I know it's still fresh for people and people are still going through it. But I'm just wondering kind of like high level, what did it, what kind of picture did it paint about the financial prospect of an independent Alberta? Was it Rosie? Was it looking pretty grim? What's your initial take? Well, it looks at two kinds of scenarios. One of them is that separation is that it's sort of easy, like Canada is by, nice to know you and we'll do business with you and all that and off you go.

24:15And in that case, things don't look too bad. There's some prospect of prosperity, high earnings and that sort of thing. And the other scenario, which is that it's a difficult partying, proposes really serious consequences like more than 300 million in debt from Canada, billion in federal debt would be transferred to Alberta. Anybody who thinks that Alberta is just simply going to pay off, Ottawa is going to pay off Alberta's show of the debt when this happens. It's crazy. So in that case, there's many really difficult numbers involved. And I think the whole report is really kind of silly because the idea of an easy exit just simply isn't in play. It's just not going to happen. So but once again, it shows that the cost of genuine separation would be very high and

25:16would affect the incomes, economic output and certainly affect government finances. Yeah. Well, you know, it's very busy times in Alberta politics. There's a lot to keep an eye out for. I appreciate your time, Don. Thanks for the conversation. Thanks a lot, Dave. 10-3 is produced by Sean Knox. I'm Dave Breakenridge. Thanks for listening.