Bitcoin might drop more from here. Here's why I don’t care.

0:00Panic in the streets, Bitcoin just tanked over the weekend down under 75K, officially more than 40% off last year's all-time high. Now we're back up to like 78K, but of course everyone's still freaking out. And guess what? It might drop even more from here. Could we hit 70K? 65K? Could we revisit the 200 week moving average, which ironically sits at the 58K gang meme? Who knows? All I know is, I genuinely do not care, because my time horizon is measured in years, and if yours is measured in days, weeks, or months, you're definitely not going to make it. That's why this video is about conviction, and why outsourcing your conviction to someone else guarantees you'll panic at the worst possible times and never hold anything long enough for it to matter. My channel is not about predicting Bitcoin's price, but maybe that's a little bit confusing because sometimes I talk about why I think Bitcoin's price is going to go up. But make no mistake, that's never about the short term, or really even the medium term. Everything I talk about with Bitcoin is through a long-term lens.

1:06I am never predicting short-term price. I'm talking about where I believe this is heading over years. For example, last week I did a video about the theory that gold runs first, and Bitcoin comes next. And since gold's been running wild for a while now, the theory goes. At some point, Bitcoin's going to catch up and pass everything that gold has done in the last 12 months. But more than one person commented over the weekend that that video had aged poorly after three days. Oh yeah, it aged oh so poorly. If you have the time horizon of a f***ing dung beetle, but maybe that's on me, and maybe I need to be more clear when I said gold runs first and Bitcoin comes next, I didn't mean one on Friday the next on Saturday, and I definitely didn't mean I guarantee there won't be a 5% drop over the weekend. I meant, you better learn to stomach of the volatility, or you're going to miss out on the entire party when it finally does happen, because the problem with people who comment things like that, or maybe most people in general, is that they are looking for someone else to tell them what Bitcoin's price is going to do,

2:07especially in the next day, week, or month. And if that's what you're looking for, you've definitely come to the wrong channel. The goal of my channel is to help people learn how to not outsource their conviction, but to better understand and grow their own conviction in Bitcoin. So they can stack smarter, hold through the volatility, and actually participate in the tremendous asymmetric upside that Bitcoin represents in the long term. If you're new here to this channel, you're watching The Sad Stacker Show, which is a Bitcoin show for people who think deeper about money. I'm your host, my name is John aka The Sad Stacker, so hit the subscribe button if you want to learn how to stack smarter and grow your conviction in Bitcoin. But it turns out most people don't want to actually put in the work to study and understand something. They just want to know what's going up next, when should I buy it, when should I sell it, which of course is a trader mindset, not an investor mindset, and definitely not a hotler mindset. As if you outsource your conviction to someone else, you will spend all your time being anxious,

3:07insecure, and frustrated with your positions. If the price goes down, you'll be thinking, oh, that stupid person who told me to buy was wrong. You'll have the urge to sell and cut your losses, or you're desperately waiting for it to catch a small bounce back up so you can get out without too much damage, but you'll have no idea whether it's going to go down more first or when the hell to try to get out. And even if you buy something and it goes up, you'll be trying to figure out, oh, should I sell it now? Is this the top? Will it keep going up? Please somebody else tell me the future. You're constantly looking for someone else to tell you what to do, because you never knew why you bought it in the first place. You were just letting your little lizard brain run the show, which we call gambling. It's the same thing as strolling into the casino and asking the dealer if you should put it all on red or black. Might as well do another six leg draft Kings parlay on the Super Bowl, because some paid shill on YouTube said this one's a sure thing. If you never put in the time or put in the work, you'll never grow conviction, and having no conviction creates constant insecurity. You don't feel confident even if it goes in your direction,

4:12you just feel anxious. You're watching the price instead of studying and understanding the fundamentals. Price is the least interesting thing about Bitcoin. Price is simply an exchange rate. And if you can't see that simple short term fluctuations in an exchange rate mean absolutely nothing about the fundamentals of Bitcoin or its long term path, then you're not going to make it. When you're a slave to chart watching and outsourcing your conviction to other people, there's no agency in that. You're not even in control of your own choices. Maybe you're subconsciously outsourcing it to someone else on purpose because you're too afraid of being the one who made the decision and got it wrong. You don't actually want to win. You just want someone else to blame when you lose. But more importantly than that, you'll never buy and hold anything long enough to ever really see the true gains show up. So it reminds me when you see people who are like, oh, Bitcoin's $100,000 I wish I would have bought Bitcoin at a dollar or $100 or $1000 dollars. That would be amazing. And you can be like, yeah, we always do that. But you can't go back

5:14in time. So it's 40% off its high today. We want you to buy some now. And of course, they'll probably say, oh, no, it's way too expensive. I think I already missed it. I can't buy it at $78,000. Hey, dummy, you don't understand it at all. You have no conviction. If you bought it at one dollar, you would have sold it at $2. And then spent the rest of your life bending yourself and do a pretzel to psychologically defend the stupidity of your decision. When you have no conviction, every rally is just going to look like an exit opportunity. So you'll sell and you'll take profits, not realizing the two most important things. Number one, exiting theot for Bitcoin is how you take profits, not the other way around. And number two, like I just talked about in my interview that just came out with James Check, historically, the most significant portion of Bitcoin's gains come in just 10 total trading days out of the year. Just 10. You miss those 10 days and you take the best performing asset in the world and you turn it into a loser. That means 355 days out of the year,

6:15you're twiddling your thumbs, watching Bitcoin go sideways or down. And if you have a low conviction, Bitcoin will always shake out the weekends and the tourists and punish anyone with high time preference. Then it will reward the patients of those who spend their time studying and growing their conviction and touching grass during the boring and bare markets. Because when it finally rips, that conviction is rewarded handsomely. Until you build that conviction, you will never hold anything long enough for it to matter. And that doesn't just apply to Bitcoin. That applies to stocks or businesses or real estate or whatever you want to buy. Bitcoin just exposes weak conviction faster because of the volatility. Any tourists who ventures over from traditional assets into Bitcoin without first doing their due diligence is guaranteed to get their face ripped off and go running home to mommy begging for their dividend stocks back. And it sounds like I'm talking about other people, but I'm actually talking from firsthand experience. I've outsourced conviction before and the insecurity of it sucks, whether it's stocks or even anything else in Bitcoin or crypto

7:19related that I've ever bought that isn't straight BTC. I've bought ETH in the past. I've bought MSTR. I've bought MSTY. I feel 10X worse when those things drop because part of me is just begging for a bounce so I can get out and relieve myself of the stress and the stupidity of not having just bought Bitcoin. Because even though I might understand the thesis on things like MSTR to a degree, I don't understand them like I understand Bitcoin. I've never had conviction in anything else like I have in Bitcoin. That's why you want to reach the ultimate level of ZenHodler where you are legitimately happy when Bitcoin drops and you feel pangs of sadness when it moves to the upside. If you really just sit back and think about where we're at today, we were at $126,000 Bitcoin last year. Today you can stack 40% more sats with every dollar than you could like six months ago. That is amazing. That's a gift from the gods. You think 10 years from now you're going to care about this little six month period where it dropped a little bit or even though over the weekend where all it dropped from 80k to 75k, I'm going to sell. It might keep going down more. Bitcoin has

8:23been known to do much worse drops than just 40% off in all time high and I understand part of your brain would feel pain mind to to see it drop to 60k or 50k or lower than that. But it's my belief that if you don't also have a genuine part of your brain that would be excited to get the chance to stack at those levels then you probably don't have enough conviction yet because my belief is basically always that in the short term I have no idea what's going to happen. But one year from now we are still much likely to be higher than we are today and four years from now we are all but guaranteed to be much higher than we are today. What happens in between is completely unknowable. That's why the most important things to always remember are no timing the market, no leverage, no shit coins and if you just stick to those rules the volatility is not something to be afraid of. It becomes your superpower. If you build conviction and you just use the simple power of dollar cost averaging which just means buying the same amount of regular intervals regardless of the price

9:23then the volatility works for you not against you. There's absolutely no four year period in which a regular DCA Bitcoin buyer has been in the red. If you're the unluckiest bastard in the world and you ape into Bitcoin with your entire life savings at an all time high then yes you are taking the chance that an extreme bear market hits and you might end up waiting four or five years to get back in the green. But probably no one actually does that and if you just buy regularly no matter what all the ups and downs in between then you're never missing an opportunity to average down and stack more sats when they're on sale. Dollar cost averaging is an anti-fragile strategy. It's the perfect low time preference companion strategy for buying Bitcoin because it removes all the emotion it removes timing pressure it captures all the volatility so that you buy all the highs and all the lows and everything in between you don't need to guess you just need to be consistent. There's a reason the cliche says time in the market is better than timing the market.

10:28I will say there is a slightly deeper layer to this dollar cost average conversation that I touched on in my conversation with James check because he talked about how he optimizes his DCA strategy so that he's maximizing the likelihood that he's always buying bottoms and he's minimizing the likelihood that he's buying tops. So you can go watch the full interview if you want to better understand that. I'll probably also do an actual long form video on my own to explain it soon. So that's why you should definitely be subscribed to the channel. But the key to all of this is that conviction is not certainty about what's going to happen in the short term conviction is understanding why you own something why you bought it in the first place accepting drawdowns or volatility as part of the process and having a time horizon that's measured in years if not decades zoom out not just on the chart but on your mindset and your thinking because if you need reassurance every three days that you bought the right thing you don't need to sell and buy another asset you need a better framework short term volatility changes nothing when your conviction is real

11:34which is why I highly suggest you quit slacking and start stacking