Bitcoin is RIPPING while things get worse in the Middle East... | EP 1451

0:00I think we're all just wondering what exactly is happening. Of course, if you're watching equities and silver had to sell off, equities have been going crazy this morning. There was a huge sell off as the markets open. Now they've rebounded. It's very interesting to see how the markets are digesting this information of a war in Iran right now. Obviously, guys, I'm sure everyone is aware of what happened over the weekend on Friday. There was a joint operation between the US and Israel. They bombed Iran. Apparently, you know, there was confusion around what happened to the Ayatollah, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Apparently, he did get killed in the first way, our first day of

1:01attacks, rather not the first wave per se. And over the weekend, everyone, I think, was monitoring the situation. We were all on Twitter wondering exactly what's going on. Further, how the markets will interact with the news that we are having a war in the Middle East. And there is a lot of, you know, there's a lot of discussion on whether this is a good thing for the US, whether this is a good thing for the world. What exactly is going on? I will start with, you know, just the most recent headline that I saw on corporate press here. This is CNBC. And it goes, Iran live updates Trump outlines war objectives as US will easily prevail. Now, the official kind of narrative around this was, hey, the Venezuela operation was the blueprint for what's going on in Iran. Now, there has been this kind of trend. Maybe it's a little bit of a troll essentially saying, hey, Trump does these projects, these operations, he bombs a country. And then he wants it all wrapped up before the

2:04markets open on Monday. And this is why there's a lot of confusion going on in the markets right now because it hasn't wrapped up. And we're getting a lot of misleading information right now. We're hearing, hey, this could only be a couple of days. And then they're saying, actually, this could last a couple of weeks. There's been some talk. Hey, this might be, you know, a couple of months. This could be like a lot of big corners have been saying. And I don't know if this is the case, but of course, everyone goes to the extreme. Hey, this could be the new forever war in the Middle East. People are making a lot of connections with what's happening in Iran with what happened in Iraq. And you know us, we are big corners. We, we always say the same thing, you know, Fiat is the party of endless wars. Fiat is the party of wars. Bitcoin stops wars. If you don't have money, if you can't print money at a thin air, then eventually you find out who actually has the money to pay for this stuff. Now the interesting part from my perspective as a Bitcoiner here is

3:07obviously how Bitcoin reacted to this news. Most of the pundits have been saying, oh, look, this is going to be the bloodiest day in the stock market because of the uncertainty in the Middle East right now. And Bitcoin, like I said at the beginning of the show, it got up to 70K. It's around 68K right now. I think the last number I looked at was basically Bitcoin bounced up around 6% this morning. I think it's a little bit of a retrace. I haven't fully, you know, chart void it this morning. But we're all monitoring the situation. We're all wondering what's going on. It did look like it was going to be a bloody market, a bloody day for equities out there. S&P 500 tank, NASDAQ tank this morning. Dow Jones was down. Now it seemed to have responded very strong on the back end. So at first, earlier in the morning, I was like, wow, did Bitcoin finally decouple? Are we finally seeing a decoupling event happening right now where equities are down, silvers down and Bitcoin respond very favorably? Turns out a couple hours later, the stock market is pumping now.

4:10And I wouldn't say necessarily pumping, but it's not as weak as it looked this morning. And again, the reason we're talking about this from a Bitcoin perspective is the fact that Bitcoin, for the first time in years, I think since 2023 has responded favorably in the face of really bad news in the face of uncertainty in the face of negative news headlines, Bitcoin is positive right now. And again, the big question is I've been saying it for the last couple of weeks is like, what's the 60 K the Bitcoin bottom? Obviously, we still, we still won't know until we are able to look back and hindsight. But the joke going around right now is like everyone was expecting Bitcoin to dump right now, but it dumped last week on no news. And here we are, Bitcoin is actually having a breakout right now, which is very interesting timing. I think the fact that Bitcoin is going up right now is super interesting, considering all the news going on in the world geopolitics macro, lot more uncertainty and Bitcoin is acting very strong right now. Because Bitcoin has been looked

5:17at or rather been treated as a risk on asset that this, I don't want to call it a full decoupling yet because this morning, like I said, it did look like a decoupling, but now it's just like, okay, hey, maybe the markets have already priced in the war in Iran, maybe, you know, 60 K was the Bitcoin bottom, maybe all of the uncertainty in the world right now in geopolitics and macro is treating Bitcoin like the neutral scarce money that we believe it is, that we know it to be. And in the face of all of this, again, the majority of people that are investing in Bitcoin currently, they view Bitcoin as a risk on asset. Therefore, when there when there's uncertainty in the world, when there's geopolitics, skirmishes, when they're the macro landscape doesn't look that good, usually Bitcoin has a very strong sell-up. This is why this moment is so interesting because look, I don't necessarily know if we are on the verge of World War III, there's a lot of debate whether

6:17this is going to be the start of a World War III scenario or is this a political theater? I know the Tom Luangos and the Simon Dixins are saying, hey, all of this has been, you know, theater, this has all been rehearsed, they've already did negotiations, this is just to kind of have, you know, a theatrics out there so that we can get what we want after this, which, depending on what side of the IOUR is essentially creating US becoming much more of a regional power. And I think this is where Simon Dixin and Tom Luangos do separate themselves. Simon Dixin is saying, hey, what we're seeing, if you follow the money, this has all been negotiated, we're seeing the US be turned into a regional power and essentially losing their world super power status currently. Tom Luangos on the other side essentially saying, hey, this is actually going to make the US a lot stronger. There has been a lot of talk about the control of the British

7:18Empire in Iran using Iran. And therefore, this attack is one of those moments that is separating the US from the British Empire from the Tom Luangos perspective, which would say that this is actually increasing the US's power, increasing America first in that Tom Luangos perspective of the US administration away from the Davos globalist crowd. Or so the other side is it could be a little more hype, you know, it could be a little more of engagement bait. It could be this perspective that, oh, look, now we're going into World War three. That's kind of the, I think the hyperbolic view of what is happening right now. Obviously, only time will tell if this does become a global affair here. But the point remains the same. Things have changed after this weekend, after these

8:18attacks on Iran or this operation, epic fury in Iran, things are changing. This is a huge moment in the world history in macro in geopolitics. It's going to be very interesting to follow along for the next few weeks. If we stay there for a long time and we have a prolonged war, I don't know, we saw this morning, Arthur Hayes basically say, hey, this is going to be the money printer. Hold that thought because I'm going to get to that turn. Let's go. I'm going to get to that during the numbers. But yeah, I mean, look, this is a kind of like a pivotal moment in American history. Trump specifically ran on a non-war, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, new war campaign, right? It was part of the reason that, you know, so much of us remotivated to vote for him. And

9:19this kind of, basically, this 180 of the United States now entering into a war with a major regional power. This is a country that has 100 million people. It's significantly bigger than Iraq. And, you know, here we are two years into his second term. And now we're entering into a major war where American service members have already been affected by it. Like, this is crazy. And then that gets you to think and start asking like very hard questions because I think you guys all remember like the beginning of Trump's, of the beginning of Trump's term when Elon got in there. And he signed all these executive orders and all this fanfare and we were very excited about, you know, the Bitcoin bill, like clarity act still hasn't been signed. It still hasn't passed the Senate. My assessment of the situation is quite simple. I think that elections, they function as

10:28a pressure release valve. They they they function as a mechanism to essentially get the plebs, get the citizens of United States to have to believe they have a they have control over the destiny of the future of the country. And I think what happened over the weekend was literally the biggest evidence that you can run into that indicates that know the American people have absolutely no say over what the federal government is doing. Trump had a mandate when he got voted in and that mandate was simple. No new wars, America first. That was what we were sold on when we elected Trump. And he's done a lot of good at the same time. Like ending

11:32operation choke point 2.0 was amazing. The executive orders, even though they're just executive orders for Bitcoin have amazing. If the clarity act gets passed, that would be great. So it's it's not all negative. Freeing Ross Ulbrich. That was fantastic. That was great. So it's not all negative. But simultaneously, you got to ask yourself, this is not popular. This is not something that we wanted. This is not going to help him in the midterms. The repubs are going to now I can tell you like as a matter of fact, they're going to get absolutely smoked. Like the Republicans will lose the house. So any type of opportunity, any type of window that they had to pass pro Bitcoin legislation, the time is the time is clicking. The clock is clicking. We're running out of time. We're running out of time for that stuff to get passed. And again, like this is this is what we

12:32want. Like this is this is exactly what we voted against. We wanted a third party candidate. We wanted a candidate that wasn't going to represent the establishment wasn't going to continue this trend of forever wars. Listen, guys, this is just a matter of fact, every president since the end of World War II has involved the United States in one conflict or the other. Every single one Trump specifically ran. This is what got him elected. I remember on the first debate stage when he was debating Jeb Bush, George W. Bush's brother, he called him out on the lunacy of the Iraq war on this specific election. Just now he ran on if Kamala gets elected, they're going to start World War III. That was his platform. That's why people went out, showed up

13:37and voted. And he essentially broke that promise completely. Like, and okay, they can say, oh, no boots on the ground. And this isn't actually a regime change war. Like, they literally took out the entire leadership of the country. They're creating a power vacuum. They're telling us stuff like, you know, oh, it's only going to take four weeks. Like, ladies and gentlemen, we've heard this before. This is Iraq 2.0, but with a much bigger country. The fact is, we don't know how this is going to end. We have no effing, we have no effing idea. But the last time the United States went to war in Iraq, that created a power vacuum which led to ISIS. The last time the United States pulled out of Afghanistan, that created a power vacuum and

14:45essentially, you know, who runs Afghanistan today? The Taliban with US equipment. They're driving around the Humvees, your tax dollars with like, you know, with excitement. So like, imagine if all of that money, trillions of dollars, imagine if all the trillions of dollars that were spent funding these conflicts, just a crazy idea were used instead on the American people. We always talk about how rent is too expensive, how healthcare is too expensive. They've spent trillions of dollars funding a war machine. Full stop. And I said this over the weekend and the tweet blew up. Fiat incentivizes this. It incentivizes this type of behavior from politicians because they enrich themselves through this whole process. Like, if you see some of the stocks

15:48that went up this morning, it was all the defense companies. I was watching CNMBC in the morning and they had the XCO of Goldman Sachs and they were just talking about this like, and I also tweeted this and I said, if you consume legacy media versus new media, you live in an entirely different reality. They were talking about it like it was just a matter of fact. Oh, we're just, you're just, it's just another, you know, it's Operation Epic Fury. It's just another thing we're doing. Like, and at the same time that you had the CEO of Goldman Sachs, next to him, you had a chiron of four defense companies and how their stocks are performing based on the news. So it doesn't matter who gets elected into office, I am convinced at this point without a shadow of a doubt that the United States will continue to go to war. The only way to end this for good

16:56is the separation of money and state and that political movement hasn't really started, hasn't really picked up steam, but I bet you as time progresses specifically in the youth, more and more people are going to start asking questions. And remember, the most powerful youth political organizer who unfortunately is not with us anymore. Charlie Kirk, which I think would have been a future US president, he started asking questions. He started asking very difficult questions towards the very end, questioning this very system. And this is where we are. I don't think we live in a, you know, in a government that is by the

17:59people, for the people. I don't think that is feasible as long as the Federal Reserve exists. I just don't think it's possible. And, you know, at this point, you got to ask yourself, like, if elections don't really change the way that Washington works and functions, it just acts like a pressure release valve, you know, in the pendulum swings left and the pendulum swings right. And then, you know, the people on the right say whatever they have to say to get in power and then they lose power and the people in left to say whatever. And it just keeps going back and forth. And the core policy, which is let's focus on the United States. And that doesn't change. Then elections really don't matter. They do matter to some extent.

19:06I think you can kind of change the things on the peripherals. But the core doesn't really change. DC doesn't really change. And it's an architectural problem. I think as long as a country has the ability to print its own money, they don't really have to listen to their citizens. Like, it's as simple as that. So let's see how this ends up. Let's see how this turns out. But historically speaking, maybe he can pull magic, maybe, maybe he can pull it off. Like what he did with Venezuela, Maduro was, was, was great. But it wasn't a full-scale, you know, a full-scale military operation to change the leadership of, I mean, technically it was, but they left the rest of the leadership in charge and is basically like, look like, if you don't do what we want, you know, this is going to happen again. This is inherently different. They literally

20:09took out the entire leadership. And then you see Trump go out on his speech and like, tell the world that the people of Iran, I need you guys to rise up. You have the full support of the United States behind you. It's like, yeah, but like, they don't have guns. They don't have organization. The security apparatus in Iran isn't going to change just because you drop a few bombs. Like, who do you think is going to fill that power vacuum in? We've seen this story play out time and time and time and time again. So when we say stuff like buy Bitcoin and wars, it's not a hyperbolic statement. If you are using the US dollar and you're part of the US dollar system, you are, you are indirectly paying for this stuff. You are indirectly paying for this type of behavior from your government. And 99% of people, if I were to ask them, hey, like, what do you care

21:14about? I bet you, they would say stuff like my health care is too expensive, rent is too expensive, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. That is what 99% of the population would argue. That's what they would say. And you know what makes things more expensive printing money. And you know why they print money? To pay for this shit. That's why they print money. And we couldn't even get the most populist president of our lifetime who specifically ran on a no war platform to keep that promise. So I'm at a point where I'm saying like, look, they either must have something on him. They must be threatening him or he isn't actually the one running the country. Or he just flat out

22:18lied. It could be either of those things. I don't know. But this is what Bitcoin is about. This is, this is why this movement was born is to opt out of this madness, right? Because I don't think it's going to end anytime soon. I just have no hope for a political solution at this point. I think people are just too distracted with, you know, Netflix and chill and you know, what is it? The sports ball bread and circuses that I just think I just don't think that they have a kind of motivation to even inherently question the system. And then not only that, it's it's the information itself. Like I was watching Legacy Media last night. And they're just, it's like it reminds me of like the Iraq war reporting. It was crazy.

23:23They were just talking about this like it was just, oh, yeah, you know, Operation Epic Fury, you know, and then they would play the same like B-roll that the Pentagon gave them of like, you know, cruise missiles getting launched from, you know, US Navy destroyers like over and over and over again. And then like, you know, the aircraft carriers were the planes take off. Like, like, what is this? Like 2003? Like, it's like, we're going back in time or something. And then like the populist movement that Trump created when he initially ran for office in 2016, like, that's dead. It's gone. It's over. This is a betrayal. That's what it is. It's not all that bad. We got some good things. We made movement. Most importantly, I think we exposed something that we all knew was true, but didn't know for certain. And I think

24:29now we know for a fact that there's not even like a like a doubt anymore in my mind. That hey, no matter who you vote for, this is what they're going to do. That is crazy. You don't change that system from within that system. You change that system by opting out of that system and living in an alternative system. And that alternative system is Bitcoin. That alternative system is freedom tech like Noster, like heat, peer-to-peer communications. That will give individuals back sovereignty. And then it will allow them to take control over their lives. But this racket, because that's what it really is of red versus blue, right versus left, GOP versus Democrat, like, dude.

25:42It's not real. It's just not real. You're going to have slightly different flavors and different policies for sure, 100%. But the forever wars, I don't think you can vote yourself out of that. And you're paying for it. You're paying for it with inflation and with your taxes. Do you agree with it? Do you like paying for it? Because you are paying for it. So the United States was originally founded on no taxation without representation. Not only do we live in a world where it's no taxation without representation, it's no taxation without representation to fund a war that you don't want to be a part of. Like, were we being attacked? Like did something happen? No.

26:51And not only that, you lied, which is the crazy part. It was a lie. It was a lie. So that's where my, that's where my head's out optic with all this. Well, I'm glad we're starting to get on the same boat. The chat is applauding Nico. A little bittersweet. Nico had a lot of hope for it. I've been very cynical about it from the jump. But without going all the way back into what Nico is saying, I do kind of want to pivot this a little bit back into Bitcoin right now because the big question was, and Tommy said it, and this is what we're all kind of wondering. Like, how did Bitcoin go up with war breaking out? That's the big question right now. And I did ask in the chat for you guys to vote. Do you think this is a Bitcoin breakout? Or is this a suckers rally? And 59% of you guys right now are saying suckers rally right now, which is very interesting to see. You know, if you look at,

27:52if you look at the price action right now, it does feel like it's breaking out. Obviously, we need a little more confirmation on the price, but that is the big question right now. The one that Tommy asked is like, how is Bitcoin pumping right now in the face of war? As a kind of conversation in the jokes we're going on Twitter. It's like, look, Bitcoin crashed on no news last week. So it can't really go that much lower. And all of us, Bitcoin is like, well, you know, it really could go a lot lower. Honestly, I was kind of expecting the Bitcoin price to to crash a lot harder on this, you know, war in the Middle East breaking out. I was really expecting it to crash really hard this morning. And the fact that we got a very strong, I don't know, I don't want to call it a breakout yet, but it does look like a breakout. I saw some, you know, some chart boys on Twitter saying it looks like a breakout, you know, they were doing their descending wedges and all that TA stuff. It is looking like it might be a breakout though. I am of two minds. It does feel like a suckers rally right now because

28:56it, and I think the, you know, the thinking for most of us is like, it should be crashing right now. Like in the face of everything we're seeing, Bitcoin should be crashing right now. But maybe, maybe, you know, like what we've been saying, or rather what I've been saying, maybe the 60K was the bottom. And we're seeing a lot of buying right now and it's holding up very strong in the face of all the uncertainty in the Middle East. Maybe the war was already priced in Bitcoin. Maybe that was the 60K crash. Maybe it was the pricing in of what is potentially coming down the pipeline. So really, we're all just looking at Bitcoin right now. We only know in a couple of weeks or, you know, looking back a couple of days of, wow, okay, you know, Bitcoin actually did break out. Okay, this wasn't a suckers rally because from all of just kind of first principles, view of this just from like a basic, heuristic view, I think everyone thought it was going to crash really hard this morning when the markets opened up. And further to add another little rink to this, we didn't get the 10 a.m. slam this morning either. So we didn't see the, you know,

29:59quote-unquote Jane Street crash that everyone has been speculating is happening. People are saying that maybe they have pivoted into silver. And that's why we saw silver crash. But in the face of all the things that we're seeing in the news right now, Bitcoin is acting and holding up very strong right now, which is I would say a pleasant surprise here. Hey, there is potentially, you know, we're potentially seeing World War 3 scenario right now. We're seeing a new war in the Middle East, at least the very first innings of this. We'll see this probably ramp up. We'll probably see the markets react in whatever way. Again, if you looked at equities this morning, it was like whipsawing it dumped. It opened way lower than last week. It dumped. And then it whipsawed back up. The markets, I think, are trying to digest what is actually happening right now. 100%. And now, let's, let's pivot the conversation away from politics back to Bitcoin. And then Arthur Hayes actually has a bullish take, which I want to get to. Opti, let's just get to it right now.

31:00Let's just fit it all in. It seems like the audience is like in what we're talking about. Let's just fit it all in. So Arthur Hayes actually has, he wrote an amazing article on Substack. And he's essentially making the case that the longer the United States, this sounds so bad to say stuff like this. But the longer the United States is involved in Iran, the more likely the Fed is likely to print money. So let's check out the clip. And we'll talk about it. I'm sticking with it. I think I said $250,000 Bitcoin. And I am going to stick with it until December 31, 1159. Pardon me. I tried to make it a little better for you there. Arthur, I tried to say it was 200,000 knock 50 grand off, but you're sticking with the 250. By the end of 2026, what do you think? I think we're be 500 to 750,000 Bitcoin. I think 2026 and 2027. This is the meat of the money

32:07printing. The Trump administration is going to do what they know how to do best. Whatever government knows how to do best. When in doubt, print the money. If the people are unhappy, print the money and hand them a goodie. And they're going to show up with the polls and hopefully vote for you. All right, everybody. So let's get into the meat of it. So this is from Arthur Hayes sub-stack. He posted this. Let me get the actual date. March 1st, so yesterday on Sunday. And excellent article really recommend it. So this is at the behest of the most powerful president in US history, Donald J. Trump, the US Department of War, and OpenAI launched their offensive agenic AI weapon, a deadly new Apple iOS, the operating system once uploaded into a nation's cyber infrastructure, attempts regime change. Regime change most often comes complete with indiscriminate bombing of military and civilian infrastructure, causing widespread casualties at the minimum cost of hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars. The destruction of the partisan resistance allows the new US controlled political

33:10elite to siphon money from American taxpayers. And they're in, um, what does that say, Opti? Ingenious. Indigenous Indigenous population and deposit said funds into their JP Morgan private wealth accounts. Popular discontent builds against the American Middle East Vichy S regime, culminating in the violent installation of a reactionary usually repressive and bloodthirsty homegrown political structure. The sale cycle is complete, and OpenAI could flog off, flog off the next version. Aren't you pumped for the OpenAI IPO price at a Ford P.E. of Infinity? A packs of Americana's righteous crusade against Middle Eastern oil producers and or weigh stations for geostrategic gas and oil pipelines has been going strong since my consciousness awoke and began imprinting experiences into the quantum continuum in the human year of 1985. Feast your

34:11eyes on this beauty of a chart prepared using perplexities new computer model. So it breaks it down, major war campaign targeted strike, Republican president, Democratic president, and overlaid as the Fed funds rate, total Fed federal budget, et cetera, et cetera. And you can just kind of break it down. And you can see some similarities. You could you could start connecting some dots. Anyways, my lottery ticket consigned me to emerge in this fictitious, screwy line defined land mass we call we humans call America. And over my 40 years of existence, every single team red Republican and team blue Democrat president launched a missile strike or full fledged war against some deserving country in the Middle East. It's as if once you become president, high ranking bureaucrats lead you into a super duper room, put your balls in a vice and make you swear that at least one Middle Eastern country will feel the

35:15searing heat of democracy during your reign, whether you believe the conspiracy theory, the juror explaining why America is bombing such and such country in my lifetime, at least the graphic shows that every US president since 1985 has engaged militarily with one or more Middle Eastern countries. Therefore, as president Trump coups about the apparent assassination of the Iranian supreme leader and endorsement of a popular revolution against the theocratic state, we investors must ponder what happens to our portfolios as Trump embarks on the right of passage for every US president before him. Given I'm just a simple-minded crypto bro, just all of us, except for Bitcoin bros, with toxic masculinity, I adopt a very simple heuristic to determine whether Bitcoin number go up or down. The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation building, the higher the likelihood, the fed lowers the price and increases the quantity

36:16of money to support Pax Americana's latest bout of Middle Eastern Middle Eastern adventurism. To validate my hypothesis, let's examine the history of the Fed's actions post a major Middle Eastern war from 1985 to the present. In 1990, President George H. W. Bush, the Fed held interest rates steady in the first meeting after the onset of the war, but intimidated that if the war dragged on, monetary easing would likely be necessary. 2001, the GWT began directly after the World Trade Center towers in New York fell, almost immediately Iraq and Afghanistan were put to the question by the cruise missile inquisitions. He's a great writer. The Fed wasted no time in accelerating rate cuts to help confidence in the economy recover. 2009, the surge, the unfortunate plebs in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan might have assumed a

37:16noble peace prize winning president would not reign hellfire down upon their countries, but they would sorely be mistaken. False hope is indeed a killer. While Obama didn't start any major Middle Eastern wars, he did upsize troop deployment in the Afghanistan war. Given that the Fed reduced interest rates to zero and began money printing via QE in late 2008, there wasn't anything for them to do in response to Obama's surge of troop deployments in the Middle East theater. Money was free and supplied in infinite quantities. The US war machine and its contractors feasted. I ran 2006 and it perceived twists of fate. Trump practically rose from the dead after an assassination attempt during the 2024 presidential campaign. As Kanye says, Jesus walks. I can talk about Kanye now because he bent. Anyways, Trump's presidency and the November reelection odds of his

38:16team red Republican legislators will depend on the success or failure defined by rising or failing financial asset markets or failing or rising oil prices retrospectively. Given that sense, the Shah fell in 1979. Iranian regime change has been the wet dream of elite Pax Americana politicians from both team red and team blue. The Fed poses political cover to ease monetary policy significantly, to shrink their duty as the enabler of cheaper and more plentiful money to finance the reconstruction of Iran into an American vessel state is unpatriotic trading tactics sitting here today. We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions if not trillions of dollars reshaping Iran's politics to his liking nor how much geopolitical and financial markets pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs. The prudent action is to wait and see the time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high quality shit coins don't agree with that part

39:19is immediately after the Fed cuts rates or print money to support the government's goal in Iran. I mean, this is what I was talking about tying this back into what I was saying in the beginning of the show. Like, ultimately, ladies and gentlemen, doesn't matter if it's team blue, doesn't matter if it's team red, makes me question if elections even mean anything, makes me question who's actually really in charge of the country, doesn't matter if you elect the most popular, you know, populous president, you know, in record in in my lifetime, at least, doesn't matter, regardless whoever the president is, they're going to bomb a country in the Middle East. That's Arthur Hays's case. Now, from a Bitcoiners perspective, which is I'm assuming why your guys are tuned into this show in the first place, Arthur makes a very solid case, historically speaking, in order to continue funding these forever wars, eventually, the Fed is forced into a position where they have

40:23to turn on the money printers, right, which again, kind of connecting it what I was saying in the beginning, it all it all surrounds the money printing, ladies and gentlemen, United States established the Federal Reserve in 1913, they established the federal income tax the same year within a couple years, the United States enters World War II, the same century, the United States enters World War II, the same, I mean, this century has had the most since the establishment of the Federal Reserve, we've had the most wars in this country's history and some of the worst wars in this country's history. If we want to end the forever wars, we have to end the Fed. I don't think we can do that politically speaking. I think the only way to do that, at least on an individual basis, it's to opt out of the system entirely. And if things really get bad, vote with your feet. I think that's what it what what it's come down to. It's come down to you taking care of your family as an individual and you doing what's best for you. But thinking that you're going to be

41:26able to change this system, I mean, they've been pulling this bait and switch for the last 40 years. And as Arthur Hayes is saying, I don't know what they're doing. I don't know if they're they pulled Obama into a back room or Trump into a back room and then they basically sent them down and they're like, this and bro, like, this is how things actually work over here. You know, I have no idea what is going on. But one thing's for certain. We're not going to vote ourselves out of these forever wars. That's my take. But, you know, silver lining was kind of fucked up silver lining is a not optee. It's the silver lining is kind of fucked up. It's super fucked up. The money printer is turning on. That's the only way that the silver lining is kind of fucked up. The silver lining from a portfolio. I can't I can't even believe I'm saying this. But like from a portfolio perspective, they might have to start printing money, which is why Bitcoin might have pumped in order to continue fundering this campaign, this military campaign with Iran, right?

42:33And if they do that, if the money printer starts going burr, guess what happens? It's a Bitcoin. It goes up, right? So well, even and just to add like one more thing on top of that, you know, amongst a Trump base, a new war, I mean, some people will be sold on the idea of war being good, you know, maybe they get caught up in the nationalism and think and actually believe what Trump is saying as the real goal and benefit to everyone. But from a younger perspective, it does feel like the Trump base is being betrayed by Trump himself with this war in Iran. And another wrinkle on the money printer idea is the midterms are coming up. And if they want to maintain the power that they have, they want to maintain the house, they're going to have to print more money so that at least the perception of the economy is that people are doing better, like essentially buying votes off, you know, buying your vote off by printing a lot of money so that people feel richer going into the midterms. So I think that's two kind of ideas of the money printers probably going

43:35on, whether it's for war or to buy off the, you know, the vote, it's almost like damn near guaranteed that it's going to get turned on very soon. And it might be a boatload of money. Yeah, but I mean, it's super fucked up that we even have to say that, right? Like it's super messed up and like, like it's super, super messed up. Like this is such a crazy world, ladies and gentlemen. But I mean, it boils down to this. Like, you know, this is, this is central banking, ladies and gentlemen. This is central banking for you, central banking. This is literally central banking. This is what central banking enables. This is what central banking enables governments to do. And I don't, and I think that the vast majority of the population, I think they're, they're, they're simple in the sense that, you know, they want to be able to make a decent living, to feed their family. They want to be able to live a life with dignity. And I think that these types of actions are just like so disconnected with what the majority of the population wants.

44:38And it's going back to my initial point. Imagine if all of that money, all of that money that was, all that, all that treasure that was spent in Afghanistan, in Iraq, in Iran, was used to build up America. Like what, you know, you guys have seen that meme where it's like the future future city. And it all looks like all futuristic and stuff. Like, you know, that's what the United States would look like today. If they used those trillions of, like it's like people can't afford health care. But they're literally like, I don't know if you guys have seen the interceptor missiles. So like, Iran's missiles cost like a quarter million dollars each, right? And each interceptor missile to shoot down one of these missiles costs like $11 million each, right? Think about how much of my $11 million is. And they shoot on average like three missiles. So it's like $30 million down the drain, right? To shoot down one of these $250,000 cruise missiles that are coming out of Iran. Like I mean, the math on that ain't math in, bro.

45:43Like that's $30 million. Like how much health care can you pay with that? Like for how many people, like you can't convince me at this point that this is about freedom. You can't convince me at this point that this is about the protection of the country. Like you can't convince me. I don't believe it. Like I remember the 2008 financial crisis. I remember how banks made terrible decisions nuke the American economy. And I remember how Main Street ended up bailing out Wall Street. And this is exactly why Bitcoin was born. Literally Bitcoin was born. It says it in the Genesis block. Chance from the brink of the second bailout for banks, right? Washington does not represent the American people. Washington represents as Arthur Hayes puts it, the Pax Americana elite. That's what they represent. The Washington represents the interest of an elite class that clearly the vast majority of people are not in that. And Trump ran a whole

46:48campaign on representing the people on America first, on populism. And on Friday, whenever whenever this war started, he completely betrayed that base, 100%. And because of that, I think the Republicans are going to get absolutely wiped during the midterms. And as a Bitcoiner, the only pro Bitcoin legislation that is getting passed through Congress, the Clarity Act, that is completely going to be stopped 100% if the Republicans lose the house. And then the cycle will have to repeat itself. And I guarantee you, you know, the dams are going to run someone that is going to come out there and say, hey, we're not going to go to war. And I promise you that whoever they elect into office, I promise you that same person, he's going to get tapped into the show tapped on the shoulder, escorted into the room, get told some stuff. We're not privy to. And then boom, more bombs in the

47:53Middle East. Crazy stuff, bro. Crazy crazy stuff. Anyways, Bitcoin fixes this, but enough people need to, you know, own it, enough people need to take self custody. And I think if enough people opt out of this system, I think we can actually win. But this is a movement without a shadow of a doubt. This is a movement. When you're, when you buy Bitcoin and you put your savings in Bitcoin, and that Bitcoin is in self custody, you are voting against this system. You're voting against the war machine. You're voting against fiat. So it's all I got to say about that guys. We're going to start the show. It's going to be a great show. We're going to be right back in just a bit. Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin. Well, infinite. If you're a serious Bitcoin buyer, you've probably hit the same wall. Most platforms make you give up custody just to play by the rules. Bitcoin. Well, infinite fixes that. They're North America's only publicly traded non custodial

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51:00dismantling the entire globalist Neocon establishment that is perpetually dragging us into endless wars pretending to fight for freedom and democracy abroad. We should have never gone into the Middle East. We should have never gone into the Middle East. Under my leadership, we will turn the page forever on those foolish stupid days of never ending wars. We're rebuilding our military stronger than ever before and we are not going to deplete it again on stupid, senseless, endless wars. World War Three has never been closer than it is right now. We need to clean house of all of the war mongers and America last globalist in the deep state. I am the president who delivers peace. I was the first president in decades who didn't start a war and the worst most incompetent, most corrupt president in history is going to drag us into World War Three. And this horrible, horrible president is dragging us toward World War Three. We're going to be in

52:06World War Three soon because I think we would have been good with Iran. I don't want to do anything bad to Iran. Large sections of the Middle East. I mean, look at the death and destruction that's second place. Come on now. Come on now. Come on. Come on. But the only faith I have left, ladies and gentlemen, is Bitcoin. All right. It's the only faith I have left. I literally, my faith in humanity is Bitcoin. This is like Bitcoin is, of course, Christ number one, but Bitcoin number two, because again, I just, I don't, I don't see, just don't see things changing. I don't. Like that montault, he ran on that. He ran on that. You guys have to remember that, right? Crazy stuff. Anyways, let's get to today's numbers. Shall we? At the time of recording, thank you, Opti, of the Bitcoin price is $69,150,

53:12a dollar, $1,446, block height, $939,037, realized monetary inflation, 0.84%, market capitalization, 1.38 trillion. Bitcoin versus gold market got 4.62%. Percentage issued 95.22%, decline from all time, high, negative 45%. If you're buying Bitcoin right now, you're getting it at 845% discount, which I think is a nice discount, a nice discount. Anyways, back to opening up the conversation. Opti, how fucking wild was that video, bro? Well, you know, it's hard for me to not take a victory lap here today, Nico, because, you know, I'm totally vindicated here. I'm totally vindicated here. I've been saying for a long time. I mean, remember, what was it? OptiGate 2.0 or OptiGate the first one. I'm like, dude, it doesn't matter what president, they're going to print money. They're going to go to war. This is why I look, maybe it's because I'm getting older now. Maybe because

54:13I'm maturing a little bit that now politics is very interesting to me. Geopolitics is probably the only thing that interests me at the current moment. Maybe it's because everything, excuse me, guys, maybe it cuts everything going on in the world that that's like the only thing I really care about. That's the only thing I'm really watching. Again, maybe it's because I'm a boomer now. I'm on here. You know, I'm getting older and it's kind of one of those things that it seems to be that as like men get older, we start to care about politics. And so, you know, Nico and I had a lot of disagreements about politics when Trump was getting elected. Nico was yelling at me like, you got to vote for Trump because of, you know, Ross and because of Bitcoin stuff, he's the first Bitcoin president. And I'm like, I'm not falling for this. I voted once. I got scammed. I'm not doing it again. And now I'm like, aren't I so glad I didn't vote for it? You can't blame me for this now. He did get Ross free, right? The genius act passed, but that's the stable coin act. Of course, they're going to pass the stable coin act because that propagates the US dollar.

55:18But the clarity act, which is the, the act that I care about specifically because it protects the right to sell, it enshrines the right to self custody on a legislative level. That doesn't look too good. Well, I did see the polymarket odds did go up a little bit over the weekend, but I'm convinced it's not going to happen. I've been saying that since October. I mean, yeah, like I think it's cooked. I mean, they have been saying, hey, you know, the banks want this to pass. We're coming in conversation. Here's the tough part, Opti. Like, here's the tough part, right? Like, wait, wait, someone said so opti voted communist Democrat. No, you know, there's a third option, not vote. But here's the, here's, here's like the tough, like, here's the quagmire that I guess we're all in, right? Which is like, I'm very happy I voted for Trump because it ended operation choke point 2.0. Like, I'm very happy that Ross Ulberg was free. That just that in itself is a

56:22major victory, you know? So in that regard, like, I'm very happy. But like, where I'm kind of like bummed out on, right? Is like, like, okay, so we have to pick between, you know, the anti-bitcoin war party or the pro Bitcoin war party, right? Like, those are two choices. Those aren't great choices, bro. Well, that's pseudo Bitcoin war party. Yeah, those aren't great. What I'm trying to say is it's like the anti anti-war Bitcoin party and like the kind of Bitcoin war party. But it's like, those aren't great choices. Like, if you, if you had, you have the choice between the two, like, they aren't really good. Like, they're kind of dog shit, to be honest. It's the, South Park, you're voting for a turd and a turd sandwich or whatever, whatever that South Park clip is. Yeah. Like, you say, it's not, it's not a really good choice. Like, I'm not like, oh my god, like, you know, it's, it's not that great. Like, it's not that great. Like, look,

57:25like, let's talk about this for a second. Like, Vietnam, let's start there. Disaster. All right. I think that the only war that you can say was like somewhat successful after World War II was Korea. And that ended up with North Korea and South Korea. And then South Korea remains free and democratic in a capitalist country. And it's very prosperous. And you could say, okay, I was kind of worth it, right? Then Vietnam disaster. That was just, it was just a bad idea. It's a bad idea. Didn't work out. What comes after that? All the, like, little small incursions in between. But the next big one I would say is Iraq. What was the outcome of Iraq?

58:26ISIS. Disaster. Afghanistan. 20 years. What was the outcome of Afghanistan? The Taliban ends up becoming the government. The U.S. loses the war. Disaster. We lose, we leave a bunch of military equipment. 2026. I ran. Well, we are, you are assuming it's going to be another forever or though. I mean, I'm, look, okay, fine, I'll take your argument. I'm just saying, we don't know how long this is going to last is all I'm saying. He said minimum four weeks. That's not a good sign. I mean, I agree. I think it is going to be a forever war. I'm just saying, but for three, here's the thing though, here's the, here's the, here's the fundamental issue, right? So I saw someone in the rumble chat talk about Venezuela. Venezuela one is different. Let me tell you why the Venezuelan one is different. They kidnapped Meludo, but they left the security apparatus in place.

59:33Right? So Delci Rodriguez, which is the vice president, remains in power and she's incentivized to cooperate with the United States and now then as well as sending oil to the United States because the leadership essentially fears for their lives and they're cooperating, right? But there is no power vacuum. Not only that, there's not an ideological component to this, right? Iran, they literally took out the entire leadership and that the outcome of that is it will create a power vacuum and historically speaking, those power vacuums that have been created like, look at what happened to Libya when they took out Gaddafi. It was a disaster. It was a disaster of a disaster of a disaster. So I mean like, bro, like, like you're looking at me and you're saying, but Nico, this time is different. No, all I'm saying is we're on day three. We we we're we're assuming

1:00:36it's going to be another 20 year like Iraq. I'm just saying it's day three. We don't know. Minimum four weeks. And the most fucked up part of all about all this is like, as Arthur Hayes said, like the longer it continues, the more likelihood, maybe this was Trump's plan all along for them to finally lower interest rates. That stretch did Trump five deep way. I love the stretch. No, it's totally, but you know, I think the first part of his sentence is probably right. Which part? Maybe this has been Trump's plan all along. Anyways, all right, guys, let's get to the next segment. We're going to be right back in just a bit. I want to give a shout out to our partner, led in the leader in Bitcoin back loans, unlock the liquidity in your Bitcoin without having to sell your Bitcoin. They've issued $9 billion in loans to over 10,000 customers since 2018. I absolutely love these guys. Not only do I have an

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1:03:54All right, ladies and gentlemen, go to bitkey.world today. Get yourself a bitkey hardware wallet. It has two of three built-in and has an inheritance planning built-in. This is literally one of the best Bitcoin wallets on the market right now. It's incredibly easy and intuitive to use. All you got to do to get ready to sign and spend your Bitcoin is put your finger on the fingerprint scanner. You tap it on the phone with the bitkey app and boom. You're ready to spend your Bitcoin highly, highly recommend it. Go to bitkey.world today. Again, bitkey.world. Use promo code simply to get 20% off anything on the website. Let's jump into today's news story on a more positive light. Michael Sailor, Chad Sailor, doesn't give a flying F about what's going on in Geopolitics. And he is, once again, buying the dip. Sailor purchased more than $200 million in Bitcoin last week. The latest purchase funded through common and preferred stock sales lifted total

1:05:00holdings to 720,000 coins. It's very close to that one million coin level valued at more than $47 billion. Strategy, the world's largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin expanded its position last week by acquiring 3,015 BTC for approximately $204 million on an average price of $67,000 per coin. To fund the buys, strategy raised roughly $229 million through common stock sales, along with $7.1 million in net proceeds of its variable rate series, a perpetual stretch preferred stock, or the STRC. I actually really like the STRC man. That thing is badass. 11.75% return in dividends on a yearly basis,

1:06:04which is really, really cool. So instead of, and the stock price, it seems to be holding at $100 so, so cool. And I mean, what the implications of that are crazy, because essentially, look, it currently pays an annual dividend of 11.5%. That's wild, bro. Right now, bonds are at 4.0, 5%. So, STRC, again, if you need fixed income, right? You have $100,000, you know, laying around, but you can't put it in Bitcoin because of the volatility and you need that cash flow for whatever reason. You put it in STRC, you're getting an 11.5% return, meaning you're getting $11,000, $11,000 return on $100,000 investment. And that compounds, if you leave the money in there,

1:07:06you don't take the cash out. I think for people that are kind of retired and are really into fixed income, I think this is like one of the best things you could buy right now, to be honest with you. And of course, it's powered by Bitcoin. And it's powered by the assumption that Bitcoin is going to continue to have that 20 to 30% Cagar. That's that's sailors philosophy. That's why he's offering that 11.5% dividend, because essentially he's taking out the risk of the volatility and he's keeping the spread. So he's betting that MicroStrategy is going to outperform that 11.5% dividend or Bitcoin is going to outperform that 11.5 annual dividend heading into the future. And it seems like the market agrees with him, by the way, because this stock essentially, since they launched it in July 2025, and this is a stock that's paying a dividend, it launched

1:08:10at $88 and it's been trading flat essentially. I had a little bit of a downturn, but it's been trading flat for the better part of since August 11, 2025. So the market even believes in this. This is pretty cool. This is pretty badass. This is going to give bonds a run for their money. This is more than double what a almost triple what a US Treasury bill would give a US Treasury would give you right now. At 4%. Obviously, there's more risk. Opti, I think that's on your side. No, it's a computer, I think. I think it's Sophie's over there. But that implies that implies that the market has confidence in this. I mean, like here, let me share my screen.

1:09:11So when it launched at $88 at $88 in 2025, it's not supposed to go up wildly, ladies and gentlemen. It's supposed to be relatively flat because it is playing that dividend. That dividend is crazy, dude. Yeah, yeah, I mean, that's crazy. I mean, let's see if let's see because like, Sailor would fundamentally like, I heard people calling this the iPhone moment. Like if he's able to keep this up for like half a decade or a decade, dude, that's wild. That's fundamentally going to change the fixed income markets fueled by Bitcoin. Wild, wild, wild, wild. I'm not like, I'm not a stock guy, guys. Like, I'm, you know, Opti and I come from the, you know, spot, Bitcoin, we don't own any, but we come from the spot, Bitcoin and take it into self custody era and Bitcoin's history, like 2016, 2017. But I'm looking

1:10:13at this and I'm like, you know, this is great. This is, this is, this is fantastic. Like, think about it. Like think about all the things you have to go through with real estate. Like, I'm real estate. What gives you like 8% but you have to deal with the tenants, you have to deal with management. If something breaks and here you have a stock that literally you can buy and it gives you an 11.5% return on a yearly basis without you having to do any of that stuff. That's wild to me. That's wild. Yeah, I have a, I have a couple of friends that they try to explain to me that's like stretching all this stuff and I'm just like, dude, spot Bitcoin. I'll simplify. But no, the point is like, I have friends that are literally like living off of that 11%. And they're just like, they're basically, you know, pseudo retired now. They're just big corners that been in it for a long time. And their 11% is, is paying their, their cost of living.

1:11:14And I'm like, you know, that sounds really good. That sounds like a really good idea. But, you know, me, I sense I don't understand it. I'm just like, we Bitcoin, just, just spot Bitcoin is all I need. I see people saying it will always be $100 per share. No, it won't. Like, it's supposed to be a hundred, if it's $100 per share, that means the market has confidence in it. I bet you as soon as the market has, it loses confidence in that share, it's not, it's going to be, it's going to dip below $100. As soon as the market sniffs that sailor isn't going to be able to pay that 11.5% dividend or whatever it is, it's going to dip below $100 per share. That I guarantee you. So, and I see people in the chat, BTC, MSTR, MSTRC is 90% of my income portfolio now. The monthly distributions from S,

1:12:14from STRC give me the freedom to watch this podcast on a random Monday and never having a boss again. Yeah, that's what my friends are doing. I got a couple of friends there. Self-custody and sovereign individually, these stocks aren't Bitcoin. A hundred percent. But guys, like, like, realistically, like, I'm telling you, like, that return is, this is the game change. That return is wild. It's so wild. Like, guys, like, look, because I, you, before, way before I got into Bitcoin, I worked in commercial real estate and 8% to 10% return was wild. But to get that 8% to 10% return on a commercial property and a rental property, the hoops that you would need to jump through, like, you have to manage tenants. You're going to have vacancies, things are going to break. You have to replace those things. And it eats into that 8% to 10%, 8% to 10% return. Sailor is coming out here and basically saying, you don't need to do any of that shit. Basically, I'm going to give you a guaranteed 11.5% return on a yearly basis.

1:13:15And the way he's, the mechanism of which he's doing that with is he's basically betting that Bitcoin is going to outperform that 11% dividend that he has to pay on a yearly basis. And then he keeps the spread. So essentially, he takes out the risk and he gives you a guaranteed return. But this is all assuming that Bitcoin's going to have that 20 to 30% Kagar. If he goes below 100, he increases the yield. Yeah, bro, but things will break. Things will break. Sailor is gangster. 10% of your own money back. Yeah, the other thing I do want to talk about is just the fact that he bought more Bitcoin. I don't know if you guys saw him. I think it was like a clip going around, but I saw it as a quote. And it was something on the lines of Sailor basically saying, like, look, if you guys keep selling this Bitcoin, I'm going to keep scooping it up. And he has like single, handedly bought. I think

1:14:19it's like two thirds of all the Bitcoin in the last year or so. It's like, it's literally just Sailor buying all the Bitcoin right now. It's absolutely insane to watch. Yeah, it's crazy. But, but like, dude, like if he nails it, he's going to, it's going to be the richest guy ever. But not only that, it's going to, it's going to, it's going to, it's going to fundamentally change the way that markets work. Guys, this is like, I'm telling you that this is a game changer. And I'm not even a stock guy. I'm not even like a, a, a tradify guy. Like, but I'm telling you, like, if you are into fixed income and this guy is essentially, it's not a guarantee, obviously, but like, he's offering you 11 point and there's risks involved and all that stuff. But he's, he's offering you an 11% return. Like, that's very, very attractive. I'm, I'm not going to lie to you. And, and what I think you're going to start to see is I think you're going to start to see people like Bitcoiners, like wealthy Bitcoiners, they're just, they're just going to start

1:15:21living off that. Yeah. I mean, I, I'm seeing that already. Like, they're just going to start living off of that. They sell a portion of their Bitcoin. They put it into strc and they just, they essentially start collecting rent, you know, in the form of dividends. Yeah. I'm seeing this happen right now. So, you know, this is a game changer. Like, this is literally a game changer. This is going to change how financial markets work, but it, this is the, and I'm, and I'm, of course, guys, I'm oversimplifying all of this. This is, this is called simply Bitcoin after all, right? I'm oversimplifying all of this, but this is all based on Michael Sailor's bet that Bitcoin has a 20 to 30% Kagar heading into the future. If that maintains true, he can keep this up. So, that's the big bet. And if that, that ends up becoming true, which we all think it is, yeah, I'm kind of, we all, we all think it is. You know, I think MicroStrategy is going to be one of the, you know, one of the wealth, one of the, one of the highest market cap companies in the world.

1:16:27Like, I really believe that. And basically becoming a bank. I don't even know, dude, like, I don't even know what they'll do, but like, this is crazy, man. Like so many people are going to be able to just like, like, Bitcoiners, there's so many people are just going to be able to just like quit their jobs and just like live off of the, the dividends off of, off the STRC or whatever. They're just going to be like, I don't want to work anymore. I mean, dude, the math maths, bro. Look, like, you have a million dollars. You put it into this. You get a hundred, you get a hundred and ten K year. You have two million dollars. You get 210 K year. You put three million dollars. You get 330, 330 K year, roughly. That's wild. That's wild, dude. Anyhow, all right. Moving on to the last part of the show, the culture, ladies and gentlemen, we're going to be right back just a bit. I want to give a shout out to our partner. Hive digital technologies. Fueled by clean energy. Hive has quadrupled its global Bitcoin mining footprint and channels

1:17:31that same scale into high performance compute where their AI cloud is now ranked number one in the world for network performance. At Hive, you've got dual engines, Bitcoin and AI humming, roaring, accelerating, and unison. They're lean and mean. They're green and clean. And they're rewriting the playbook on sustainable digital infrastructure. You can catch the latest buzz at Hive Digital Tech or at HiveDigitalTech.com. All right, everybody. I do want to give a shout out to our sponsor, Bitcoin 2026. Guys, it's the largest Bitcoin conference of the year. It's going to be in Las Vegas, Nevada at the Venetian Hotel, April 27th through the 29th. You're not going to want to miss it. Get your tickets today by scanning the QR code on your screen or using promo code simply to get 10% off. So when you buy your you go to Bitcoin 2026, you can use the URL scan the QR

1:18:32on the screen. When you're checking out to buy your ticket, use promo code simply again, promo code simply and you get 10% off your tickets. I hope to see you guys at the largest Bitcoin conference of the year, Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada, April 27th through the 29th at the Venetian Hotel. I hope to see you guys there. Bitcoin 2026. Anyways, I want to open this up to Opti. I mean, crazy cultural moment. What do you what do you what what what's on your mind? Culturally speaking. I don't know. I mean, I I'm like looking at what's going on with Bitcoin right now. Obviously, the geopolitical stuff is insane to watch. That's definitely I think top of everyone's mind right now. You know, wondering where are we currently? What's going to happen in the markets? And if you're you know, it's very easy to look at what's going on currently and getting pessimistic and really,

1:19:35you know, blackpilled and doomer right now. Like some of my friends are just super blackpilled right now. Super just doomer. And I'm just like bro, life's electric don't don't fall for this doom stuff like this is not the way to live. It's really actually someone asked like a pretty good question in the beginning of the show on the idea of like, okay, so like so what? If everything we're saying in the beginning of the show is true. Like so what? Like what can you do? And I'm kind of just still on the same same wave I've been on for a while. It's like, look, yes, there's a lot of stuff going on in the world. But most of it is out of my control. The only things that are really in my control is like what I eat with I work out. If I stack sats like my mentality going on right now. So, yes, I am caught up like everyone else monitoring the situation. But a lot of it of what I'm personally doing is just like continue what I'm doing. Make sure I'm in the fittest I can be. Make sure I'm eating well. Make sure I'm working out. Make sure I'm able to stack some Bitcoin.

1:20:37It's like we're still on, you know, 2026 ascension, getting ourselves to be the best we can be. Yes, there's a lot of crazy stuff going on. Yes, the Bitcoin price is out of our control. But I don't think it's as bad in terms of Bitcoin that we all make it out to be. One of the things I've been kind of watching lately on Twitter is just it does seem like there is a lot of engagement farming going on, especially in the context of what happened in the, you know, the attack on on Friday. I don't know if you guys were on Twitter over the weekend, but there was a lot of misinformation. There was a lot of misleading posts. There was a lot of a lot of money on the line right now to make you believe a certain thing. And people are rehashing old, you know, old videos, literal, just straight up fake news stuff. And it's getting incredible engagement on Twitter right now. And so one of the things I'm kind of been thinking on is, and I hate using the term, but like your information hygiene right now is just like watch what you are watching.

1:21:43Watch the information that you're intaking right now because there is a lot of incentives, or rather, there's a lot of people with the incentives to lead you to a certain, you know, end goal. And part of what I've been trying to do is obviously look, I have two brain cells left. You guys know, I have a 42 IQ here. You know, people in the chat call me Donald time. It's like, yeah, I tell you that I am all the time. I'm not out here saying I'm smarter than I am. But what I do think I still somewhat maintain is some semblance of critical thinking. It might not be the best. I'm not the smartest person here. But I am always looking at what I am actually digesting. What media am I looking at? What are the sources telling me and what are their incentives and who are behind them? I think it's more important than ever right now to really hone in on who it's saying what and maybe what their incentives are moving forward. And I think this is probably the most important thing that we can be doing culturally right now is kind of understanding like, you know,

1:22:46the saying follow the money. Who are the people that are blowing up on social media right now? What are they telling you? What do they, what are they, what are their incentives? What do they have to gain from you believing these certain narratives? And right now, I think a lot of us need to do our best to, you know, critically think and try to read between the lines like, where are they trying to lead us? What are we doing here? Like what, what is this message trying to do to me? Where is this message coming from? That's a lot of the stuff I'm going and I'm thinking about constantly because, you know, you talk to your friends and family and they do get caught up in the headlines and everyone doesn't really know what's going on. Part of war is confusion. And I don't know about you guys, but over the weekend, I know I was refreshing my timeline and searching like, okay, is this actually happening? I know there was a lot of confusion over the, you know, the death of a supreme leader, come on, he, forgive me if I messed up the last name. And you know, we got reports that, oh, you know, he got assassinated. And then it seemed like, oh, wait, he

1:23:51didn't. And then we had Trump come out and say, like, oh, confirm. And there was still a lot of debate on whether this actually happened or not until, you know, an hour or so later when it was confirmed on Iranian state news. And so you're seeing there is a information war going on right now. And that is part of war, misdirection, not knowing what's what. So I'm really kind of focusing back on just the basics, like what can I do? What can I actually do in this situation? Obviously, we come out here and we talk about Bitcoin, we talk about a lot of cultural stuff, what's happening in the world. But always with this Bitcoin lens, part of that is like, look, we're human. We don't know all the information, but with the information that we're working with, we try to give you the best, you know, analysis we can. We try to give you the best Bitcoin perspective on all this stuff. And when we get more information, you guys know me, I've been on the show for the last year. So in every time I get new information, I'm digesting that and putting that into my framework, my perspective on the world. And some of you guys in the chat,

1:24:53we're like, oh, you guys are flip flopping on on the story in the news. I'm like, look, I didn't have all the information. I didn't process the information. And now it's like, I think it is important right now to maybe take a step back, maybe monitor the situation less. You know, don't get caught up on the social media hype trends right now because it is going into overdrive. There is a coordinated effort to hijack your brain. And it's more important than ever to, at times, put the phone down. You know, what can you actually do to improve your lives? Probably not being on Twitter all the time, getting caught up in all of the doomer stuff. Now, I do want to hit on one thing real quick because we did get some pretty important information this morning. And I'm not saying that this necessarily means, you know, bear market over, per se. I'm not necessarily saying we might not see another drop in Bitcoin price. But it is starting to lead the narrative that we might be seeing some bullish indicators building

1:25:54as we speak. And of course, if you guys are on Twitter, then you probably know what I'm talking about. But the ISM PMI numbers came out. And for the second month, it shows that the economy is in expansion right now. We got a, a report of 52.4, a little higher than expectations. And of course, ISM manufacturing PMI came in higher. It's Shabza Joe Consorty higher than expected today in expansion for the second month in a row. After three years of contraction, US manufacturing is back in expansion. Historically, this has lined up with every start of a Bitcoin bull market. Of course, excluding 2022. So there is some bullish indicators, you know, that's probably being lost right now in the face of the whole war in the Middle East, the whole, you know, US bombing or US Israel joint bombing of Iran. There is a lot of confusion right now. And again, we will only be able to look back at the price of Bitcoin in hindsight and realize, oh, that was the bottom. So in the meantime, it does look like we are still in a very deep value buying opportunity of Bitcoin.

1:27:00And Nick Batia, you know, went a little further on this same idea. And he goes Bitcoin trading well on strong US manufacturing this morning and elevated prices paid last month above 50, 50 print confirmed today, last month above 50 current confirmed today, the manufacturer industry is back in expansion. Of course, after three years of contraction. So it's not all doom and gloom. Yes, as I've been telling you guys, and I think as we've all been feeling the last couple of weeks, there is a demoralization campaign right now. And it's working pretty good. Sentiment around Bitcoin. It's probably as bad as I've ever seen it since I've been in Bitcoin in from 2017. We are on, you know, five red months. It's been a brutal, brutal drop here. Even though we're above 60K, we're potentially going to see, you know, who knows what happened in this month. But if we see another red month, this is like the longest streak of monthly consecutive

1:28:02red candles. So we might be getting towards the end of the bottom or rather the end of a bear market nearing bottom soon. The information is it isn't, you know, necessarily saying, hey, bull markets back on the table, but the on chain metrics, all of the data, the indicators that we can all look at is starting to kind of say, hey, look, all right, maybe the worst is behind us, maybe we're coming to the end here, maybe we're starting to find a bottom here. So it's not all bad. Yes, there's a lot of crazy stuff going on in the world right now. It's, it's, you know, hard to ignore. Like if you had any conversation with your friends and family and you're on Twitter for even a little bit, everyone is kind of saying the same thing. It's like, wow, are we going, is this, is this the start of World War three right now? Like what is going on? Everyone's trying to figure out what's going on. So I would, I would just kind of say, you know, take a step back, focus on what you can do in your personal life to better your position, whether that's your health, whether that's your wealth, whether that's your relationships, right now is the time to really

1:29:05focus on you because it's very easy to get caught up in the exterior on things that are happening outside of your control. And as, as I've always thought, you know, big corners are usually generally very level headed, but we're all human. And we still get caught up in a lot of stuff. And sometimes you get caught up in the hype. I think right now is a time, hey, let's, uh, let's take a step back, continue to stack sats, continue to get your health up 2026. Where what? You know, the end of the second month, there's still a lot of time left in this year. Let's not get caught up in the doomer stuff. Well, you know, we're optimists here. This is why the, the pseudonym optimist is a thing. We got to make sure we are, we're maintaining the positivity here. And not just delusional positivity. You got to always look for, for the good and things. And, you know, I know I'm a little woo-woo right now, but things are crazy. You know, you got to, you got to make sure that you are level headed throughout whatever comes, you know, whatever comes next, whether we're seeing the greatest sia up right now to demoralize Bitcoin,

1:30:07we'll only know in hindsight whether we're seeing sia ups playing out on the geopolitical scale. Again, we'll only know in hindsight, but I would just say, you know, still your mind be prepared right now, because things are getting absolutely crazy. Make sure you're getting some sun, all that good stuff. You, you guys know, I say, I say basically the same thing all the time, because really this whole show is usually just a lot of different ways to show you, hey, your health is important. You need to stack sats. You need to take care of yourself and your family for it. You need to put the oxygen mask on first. And the world is designed right now to, you know, make you very weak mentally and physically. But I want everyone out there to be freaking warriors, you know, tip top shape, got your finances right. We are all trying to objectively find the truth. What is actually happening in the world? You know, we make mistakes. We may, we may not have all the information. Maybe there's some hang-ups that prevent us from seeing things

1:31:07clearly. But if we all, you know, this is a back and forth thing here. You guys know I hang out with you guys in the chat every single day. I read the comments, you know, I'm updating what what I'm thinking based on your feedback live on the show. I'm constantly thinking about what is going, what is happening? Where are we going? Yes, I have a bias. I am, I am always bullish. I'm a bulltard, you know, that's, that's just who I am. I'm, I'm a constantly bullish on Bitcoin. And I, and I've been wrong. And I've eaten, I've eaten those, you know, I've eaten those words multiple times. But let's make sure that we're not, we're not getting emotional here. We got to be stoic, logical, soldiers warriors right now. It really is the most important time in history. And I know that gets thrown around a lot. But this is a historical moment that we're all going through right now without a doubt. So, you know, as Bitcoiners, we want to acquire more Bitcoin. We want to live a long, healthy life. Make sure our families are good. Make sure you're good. If you don't have a family

1:32:11yet, you know, we're building towards that. You know, I'm building towards that. But hey, you know, I have my mother, I have my family, I have my brother and my sister and my parents, you know, like we all have people that we're responsible for. So we show up every day trying to give as much value and whatever job you have, that's the goal. Be as productive as possible. That's kind of what I'm thinking. I'm really going back to basics of like, hey, what is in my control here? Because as we can all see, there's a lot of stuff outside of our control. And yes, it's our jobs to be talking heads. But let's not get caught up in the stuff that we can't control here. I think that's probably like my, you know, motivational opti ramp for the start of March. All right. Can we do the outro thing? Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Do you do your outro? And I got this. I got this. All right, everybody. If you guys enjoyed the show, you know, to do smash that like when I consider subscribing to simply Bitcoin, shout out to the YouTube chat, shout out to the rumble chat, which was absolutely wild today. Shout out to the X chat as well. If you guys are

1:33:12watching us on your favorite live streaming platform, shout out to you. Thank you guys so much for tuning into Simply Bitcoin. We wouldn't be here without you. Subscribe to the channel. And we appreciate it. Smash the like button on whatever platform you're on. If you're listening to us on the audio platforms, shout out to you guys as well. We appreciate you guys. Thank you guys so much for tuning into Simply Bitcoin live. We'll see you guys tomorrow for a brand new episode. We'll see you guys tomorrow for a brand new episode. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.

1:34:16Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.