Bet On It | Barking Dogs, Traps and Sharp Best Bets! March Madness First Round Predictions

0:00It's a strange shift, isn't it? The parent who raised you needs some help. And you want to be there. With care.com, you don't have to do it alone. Whether you're clear on the kind of care your aging loved one needs, or still figuring it out, we've got support. Find background checked in-home senior caregivers for anything from companionship to dementia care, or browse senior living communities, read reviews, even schedule a tour, plus access to safety checks to help with your peace of mind. Still not sure what's best, our senior care advisors who are all master's level social workers can help you build a plan. For a limited time, use the code podcast20 for 20% off your initial care.com subscription. That's podcast20, all one word, good for 20% off. Start your senior care journey with confidence. Access to affordable credit helps me pay my employees that I don't really need it. Infliction is killing me. Who cares? Big retailers that make it record profits.

1:00That's why we support the Durban Marshall credit card bill. See? Things in credit unions help small businesses make payroll. This bill would cut the vital resources they need. While increasing Megastore profits. They deserve it. Don't they? Tell Congress, stop the Durban Marshall money grab for corporate Megastores, paid for by the Electronic Payments Coalition. Hey, I'm Josh Spiegel, host of the podcast, Lunatic in the newsroom. If you enjoy journalism that drifts into mild panic, wild overthinking and a guaranteed nervous breakdown, Lunatic in the newsroom is for you. It's news like you've never heard before. The only newsroom with a panic button, you'll laugh, you'll cry, and gasp and horror as the show spirals completely out of control. It's not just news, it's emotionally unstable. Lunatic in the newsroom. Listen today, happy same Patrick's day here on bet on it. March madness is upon us less than 24 hours. I'm going to be at the Westgate Superbook, drinking copious amounts of green drinks called

2:01margaritas. And we're going to be cheering our proverbial faces off. We've got a huge show for you guys today. We're going to break down those prime time games. Well, at least the ones that we think are prime time that you need to know about VR is going to come in hot with that steam report, which dogs are going to win outright. We've got three double digit ones for you guys this week. While the deli may be only on the wager talk YouTube channel for Marco, he's got a trap game for us here on bet on it. And of course, we're going to wrap it all up with some best bets. All right, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Yani, the Greek. Haven't seen you guys. Well, that's not true. Of course, I've seen you guys. But I haven't seen you guys here on bet on it since the Super Bowl show. Now the madness is here and there was a lot to dissect.

3:02We did a selection Sunday show. If you guys missed it over on the wager talk YouTube channel, definitely go check that out. I'm going to let you go first 11 seed VCU and number six North Carolina. Talk to me about this matchup. I don't like that you're going to be on the other side. And I'm going to say it's because maybe I spent a little bit too much money in my Calcutta on Virginia and Commonwealth University. I'm going to keep it simple. And the viewers that follow from bet on it, the college football NFL definitely know what I'm talking about. I follow my power ratings. They produce number one in profit for college football NFL. And I was number one in college basketball going into Saturday. I got buried this last week, got that out of our system before the big dance, which is a good thing. But sitting at number two up over 70 units. So obviously the production reflects that power ratings do work. And what I simply do is I produce a provide account for groups that do extremely well move

4:07markets win long term. And when they come in on a side that I've already power rated that to have value, then I know to put a little bit more on top and use that as a premium. Now I haven't gotten to the window yet with North Carolina because I'm thinking I may even get a better number if I wait. I do think the betting public is going to be on VCU. And when we're talking March Madness, it's comparable to the Super Bowl. Thursday and Friday of March Madness especially is comparable to the Super Bowl. What I mean by that is there's so much public money being bet that the short money is being overlooked. Now early in the week, they got to pay attention to it because the only bet is that are really locking up money five days in advance or sharp bettors or the betting syndicates. So when that's the case, the market's going to reflect that side. But the biggest bets for these groups aren't coming in until late Wednesday, early Thursday, early Friday. That's when the limits are biggest.

5:07That's when the public's knocked some of these lines out of whack and added even more value to their side and they're able to throw that betting in and not produce problems for the books because they'll have more than enough tickets written on the other side. And it's just a beautiful couple of weeks of opportunities to make money if you're selected and you pick your spots. With that said, here's why I like North Carolina. Now they're rated, they're ranked 21st in the AP poll coaches poll call what you will. I have them as the 23rd best team in the country. So we're very close as far as our ratings go where the disagreement is in the VCU side. This is a fade on VCU more than the bet on North Carolina. Here's what I mean. VCU is 27 and 7 overall, all right. They've had the hundred and third toughest length of schedule. So 100 and two teams had a tougher schedule than they did.

6:09And yet offensively, they're not in the top 60 defensively. They're not in the top 60. They're exactly their 60th defensively, 64th offensively inefficiency. And that's against the hundred and third toughest schedule. Now you're facing a North Carolina team, which had the 50th toughest schedule, again, not the toughest, but a lot tougher than VCU. And they produced an offense that's top 25. They produced a defense that's in the top 40. So with a tougher strength of schedule, I have the better offense. I have the better defense going in. So both sides of the bull, I have the better team. And they've done so. Their data, at least against the better schedule. And they've even outperformed the betting market going 19 and 13 compared to the VCU who was 500 ATS. I think this is an auto bet on North Carolina at anything less than minus three or better. I think it's the right side. A money line it, 150 or better. I also think it's a good bet six out of 10 times easily plus CV.

7:13I think they win this game again. I like North Carolina having made it a premium play yet, but power rating wise, it lines up offensively and defensively the way they match up, at least who has the edge statistically. So at all points, the UNC for more lay the points. Lay the points. If my Calcutta team hears that, they're going to be very mad at me. That's okay. We've got some other ones that I've been wrong before. I've been wrong a lot. Don't worry about that. All right. Number nine, St. Louis, another team that we drafted yesterday versus number eight, Georgia. Take me home, Marco. Tell me, tell me that St. Louis is going to win this basketball game. Well, Kelly, when you look at this one, the first glance is going to be, you see in the Lanark 10 school playing an SEC powerhouse conference team. And the lines just two and a half, isn't that basically picked the money and the knee jerk reaction is we're going to grab Georgia from the big name conference.

8:15It's, you know, just too easy for me to go that way. But if you look deeper at this St. Louis team, they only got five losses all season. And I can make an excuse for them in all five of those losses. They, first loss of the season was early in the season. It was in a Thanksgiving tournament in the second of back to back games. They lost by one point to Stanford. Okay, that was early in the season. They didn't suffer their second loss until February 17th. That was a loss at Rhode Island, but it's got to be noted that that game came, the game before they had a big TV game on a Friday night against second place for Ginny Commonwealth. That was a big game, a Friday night spotlight game on TV. They got caught looking ahead in my opinion. And when did their third loss come? The game after the VCU showdown, when they thumped VCU on TV, they were feeling fat and sassy. Yeah, we can't have a bet on it show without me throwing out a fat and sassy there.

9:20So I'm looking at this team. They made it all the way to the semi finals. They lost by one point to Dayton in the semi finals. But if you look at the box score in that game, for one point loss, there was one huge outlier in that game and it was the difference in the game. Dayton went to the foul line 29 times where St. Louis only went to the line 17. That was the difference in the game and they still only lost by one. I think they can hang around, yes, Georgia can put up points, but they also give up points. And I like this St. Louis defense 27 and five straight up for this for the year. And like I said, I can make an excuse for all five of their losses. I'm going to go ahead, take the better defensive team. Getting points, you know, that's a mantra I love. We're going to go ahead and take St. Louis. It can we even really call it an upset is just a two and a half point underdog. I'll go ahead and take St. Louis here against Georgia. All right, I'm also going to take a small underdog here.

10:21Hi, this is Alex Cantrowitz. I'm the host of big technology podcast, a long time reporter and an on air contributor to CNBC. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on big technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it, asking where this is all going. They come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to big technology podcast or ever you get your podcasts. The Toyota Tundra and Tacoma are built to keep going, blending rugged muscle with precision engineering all supported by Toyota's time tested legacy of dependability. Step into a Tundra and feel the unyielding capability with the available I force max engine. Tundra puts out impressive power, torque and towing performance and the roomy high tech cabin keeps you connected on the go or take a look at Tacoma made for drivers who push past the path agile, tough and relentless with available features like crawl control,

11:25portable JBL speaker, a power lift gate, so gear goes in fast and the adventure keeps moving. The Tacoma and Tundra are engineered to endure season after season, mile after mile. So drive one home today, visit toyota.com or stop by your local Toyota dealer to find out more Toyota. Let's go places. Hi, this is Alex Cantroids, I'm the host of big technology podcast, a long time reporter and an on air contributor to CNBC. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on big technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it, asking where this is all going. They come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to big technology podcast wherever you get your podcasts. That's kind of why I wanted to go over these prime time games, some of these coin flip games if you will can be kind of really hard to dissect. So I'm going to take ten seed, Mizzou, one and a half point underdog versus seven seed

12:29Miami. Did you guys watch the selections on day show? If you did, then you knew we just absolutely dragged the ACC and that's because they really had a down year outside of the Duke Blue Devils. I'm not high on this Miami basketball program this year. I didn't really think there was a lot to love about them. Now I know Marco just said some nice things about the SEC and that's normally what I do the opposite of. I don't say nice things about them getting ten teams in, but this is a really solid Missouri team. Are the third tallest team in college basketball and they also have an offensive, effective field goal presented in the top 30 in the country. I really think Mizzou as a ten seed was my biggest shock on Sunday. We're sitting here watching it and I was like a ten seed. I knew we were going to see a lot of SEC teams get in, but that one was rather shocking to me to say the least.

13:31Now again, back to this Miami team. I don't think there's a lot to love about them as a whole. I think the reality is we're going to see people rush to the window and say, well, they're 25 and eight on the season. They play in the ACC and so A plus B equals C and that's not a team that I just want to back here. This is a team that looked decent down the stretch covering five of their last seven games. But they had an early exit there in the ACC tournament, right? They end up losing to Virginia in just awful fashion after beating a lovel. Again, this is a team that on paper looks good, but they have a couple red flags. One of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country and those are not teams that I want to back here down the stretch in March. So give me the Missouri Tigers plus one and a half for my TV game here on bet on it.

14:32VR Steam report has been really great. I have a lot of friends who have subscribed to a VR explain everybody what they get from your steam sheet every single day over on Wager Talk and kind of give them a snippet of what you're seeing so far here in March. Yes. I've made it a goal to lower my volume of premium plays to subscribers so that they're able to follow exactly what I'm doing a lot easier and their bank flow could handle the swings a lot easier with lower volume. But I have access to so much information because I provide these accounts that I take a percentage job and those are bets that I'm not placing them personally myself, but I have money on them. So I'm able to share that information by providing the steam sheet every day and I put those plays on there that I didn't release as premium plays, but that are being bet by these betting syndicates that I work with and I have action on it.

15:34So obviously I wanted to win. It's not like I'm just sharing, okay, this was steam, that was steam, that was steam. No, these are bets that I actually have money on. That's what I'm putting in there. They're not opinions. They're not leans. They're not free picks. These are actually bets that we place. But again, I'm only going to really so much as premium selection and as the strongest because if you've gotten the steam sheet, then you see the volume that these guys bet. And if you provided accounts and we partnered up, then you know that's exactly what it looks like, 50, 60 bets on some Saturdays. And I share all of that kel even stuff that I get from other movers who move for groups that I don't have access to because then I'm able to confirm their stuff. Perfect example. The steam sheet's up today. It's for $5 because it's Tuesday. And what's in there is conch basketball moves for tonight, conch basketball, steam for Thursday, for Friday, NBA for tonight, NHL for tonight. I put college baseball in there. I put NHL in there.

16:35I put soccer, tennis, like all that gold that I get throughout the day, regardless what it is, I put it in there for subscribers to have access to or anyone that buys the daily steam sheet. So it's just a daily, I don't even know what to call it, package that provides a ton of action. How much is it VR? So if somebody wants $19, come for the premium play. So I only put like 4% in there. So it would have been 25 bucks anyway, but we just give the premium play and they get all that information. Oh, okay. So if you're already a premium subscriber, you're getting it anyway. I was thinking like I would call it maybe like a newsletter if you will. That's perfect. And if you're, if you're, like if you're betting this tournament prior to Thursday, you're going to want to know what, what are these grooves or legit? Like today, the sheet has a bunch of moves on there. Like it's gold. If you're handicapping, it's gold. If you're handicapping your own stuff, for sure.

17:35You say that on last call. I think that makes a lot of sense. If you like to do your own handicapping and want to qualify what you're already seeing and or maybe it's going to keep you off of a couple of things. And I've talked about that several times on last call in regards to the sharp information that I get. All right. Give everybody a little snippet of the steam. I know it's early in the week. We thought of 48 hours until the game stiff off, but I'm genuinely curious to see what the sharp groups have played so far. Yeah. Let's talk about first one Wednesday because I don't know what times today will be all. So Miami on how they took the plus eight and a half on Miami and the eight took that out also against SMU. In Thursday, they've already bet three favorites, Vandy minus 11, Illinois minus 22, Gonzaga minus 19. Now, be cautious because I spoke about this earlier. A lot of the legit biggest positions come very late. More and more as the markets have become more efficient.

18:37It seems like more and more of the biggest moves come in late. So pay attention to a lot of the later moves Friday, 756 Virginia minus 17 and a half, 761 Santa Clara plus 4 and a half, 771 Utah State minus 1 and a half, 749 UCF plus the 7 and 760 Purdue plus minus 23 and a half. Now, if someone comes in later, two days later, and they bet the other side, whether it's that group or not, I'll go back in that steam sheet. I'll let it be known and say, hey, this is a different group. They bet the other side or this group that actually bet that is now coming in on the other side. So it looks like they've dumbied it up. So I'll always follow through because again, a lot of this stuff you will see take back later, especially on these tournament games. Once the public moves some of these lines, like Gonzaga minus 19, if Gonzaga gets a 22, let's say 22 and a half, rest assured they're coming in and taking the dog later at plus. So there'll be a lot of that going on with the tournament because the public's going to

19:37move so many of these lines once they start firing. All right. Let's get into some of those barking dogs. My favorite segment during football season. And I'm pretty happy. We have a lot of double digit dogs that I'm salivating over. The problem is, Mark, I'm a little discouraged because last year, if you were betting money line underdogs, you got absolutely crushed. So we each dug really deep to try to find a dog that has a shot to one hour. And obviously, we like them against the spread. Give me a dog, Marco, that you think is worth a little extra on that money line. Yeah, Kelly. And last year was Chuck City, which wasn't good for the books and it talked with the station sports book director yesterday, Chuck Esposito, and he alluded to that was one of the first worst opening rounds the two days for the books in a long time. We didn't see those. Is that going to be a trend moving forward now with the rich getting richer because of

20:39NIL money? We'll see. I never liked to overreact to a one year sample size. What I am going to do is stay with what always works. And I'm looking at this one. We've got a 512 match up. This is the most popular where we have seen the underdogs make some noise. But I've got more than that than just looking at the seeds. You're looking at a Vanderbilt team that really had a remarkable end of the season. If you look at the final four games or their season, what they did really has their stock at the highest point of the season. You look at the last game of the regular season. They went on the road and beat their arch rival, Big Brother, Tennessee at Tennessee. That was a huge win. What do they do? They come right back in the next game. Who do they get in the first round of the SEC tournament? Yeah. They get Tennessee again.

21:41This time, it's not on their home floor, but it is in their home city. It was in Nashville with the Bridgestone Arena where Nashville is home to Vanderbilt. They pulled another big victory over Big Brother. You would think, okay, right there, now they're fat and sassy, they're going to come up flat after that. No, they did. They pulled off the biggest shocker, I think, of the tournament, just demolishing Florida in the next game. Everybody had Florida. Any expert you talk to talking head, had Florida is playing the best ball in the country right now heading into the tournament and they got waxed in that game. Well, they finally ran out of gas when they got to the championship game against Arkansas and that was a spot where they wanted that game in front of the home fans. I think there's going to be a carryover hangover-wise for Vanderbilt and because of that run,

22:43you're laying a premium if you want Vanderbilt. That's just fine. I want the premium because I'm taking the dog. McNeese State is a team that's won 10 in a row, 14 of their last 15. As I said, you're getting the benefit of an inflated number because you've got a no-name in McNeese State from a smaller conference, playing Powerhouse, SEC conference team that's looked very good. Let's go ahead, take McNeese State, let's hope it reverts back to what we've seen so many years in the first round where these dogs sneak in under the number. I think this one's going to be a lot closer than people think. I'm grabbing the 11 and a half with McNeese State. Kelly, honestly, I see this kind of as a three to five point game either way, sprinkle here. McNeese State is capable of pulling the upset. I'm here for it. I'm here for all of the madness and it will be absolute utter madness if this team wins

23:45all right. The R is one up in Marco and I get Mark when I come in with nice double digit underdogs and VR gives us one that's three touchdown and a field goal underdog, 24, 24. Hi, this is Alex Cantrowitz. I'm the host of Big Technology podcast, a long time reporter and an on air contributor to CMBC. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on Big Technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it, asking where this is all going. They come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and plenty more. So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to Big Technology podcast or ever you get your podcasts. Here's why the truth, I keep it real because we have the best supporters for this show by far. I just love going by just to read the comments afterwards with that said, I haven't gotten

24:46to the window. I know you guys love hearing that yet with the dog. In fact, I've only released a 4% for Thursday and a 4% for Tuesday nights playing game. I'm staying selective because we're going to crush these next few weeks. The dog will pop up. It just hasn't been clear yet, but there is one that I'm looking at that's definitely getting more points than they should based on power ratings. And I think the matchup lines up nicely as well. And I'm talking about the Idaho vandals getting 24 plus points against Houston. Now, you guys know, I've been high on Houston all season. I've had them in the top five. I have them fifth right now. Currently, I think that's where the AP finally finished up with them fifth. So we agree there. It's the Idaho side that I think is being a little undervalued here. Number one, I get it. We conference, weak strength of schedule. That's obvious. They played the 213th toughest strength of schedule compared to the 21st toughest strength of schedule for Houston.

25:47With all that said, Houston's been so impressive on the defensive side of the ball. With that tough of a strength of schedule, you're number one defensively. So Idaho is probably going to have some trouble putting up a lot of points. But luckily for Idaho, Houston's not an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, that's the reason they're not going to win the NCAA championship, probably because their offense isn't going to be able to get them over that hump. Because they're barely in the top 50 offensively. And Idaho, even though they're not jumping off the page statistically, they are better on the defensive side of the ball than they are on the offensive side of the ball. At least that's what all the data shows. So they have the strength of this team is their defense. All the weakness for Houston is their offense that bodes well when you have to cover almost a 30 point spread for the dog. And then when I look at Idaho, they just haven't been blown out. Like I said, their defense is their strength.

26:49And they've kept them in the games where they haven't lost a single game, I believe, by more than 15 points or maybe one. And that was it. So they have been able to keep them close. I think they're able to do that here. I think Houston is thinking final four or bust. I don't think they really care about how badly they beat Idaho. I think all they got to do is get past Idaho. And the key once you're ahead by 15, 20, 25 points is health. Get your guys. Keep your guys healthy. Don't give them too much minutes. And I get it. Houston's backups would be starting at Idaho. I understand that. But still, I still think Idaho starters will have a better shot at covering against the backups of Houston late than Houston pulling away and winning by 30. So take Idaho to keep another game close. They won't be able to win. But they will put a scare in Houston, at least in the first half before the cream rises to the top and the size and speed and athleticism starts to take over. But don't keep it within 24. So I like Idaho. It's the dog. All right.

27:49Do you think they're worth a little money lines? I did. I did take them in the count. Yeah. I love the question. Thank you. Because I forgot to say that there won't be a dog that I bet in this tournament that I don't have some risk on the money line. Can you give me like a percentage? I can. Yes. I love the, so let's just face math. Let's see. You have $110 plus to win 100 plus 24. How much would you have five bucks on the money line? On, no, on a 20, a 20 plus point line. I'd probably put Kelly maybe like 2% at the most on the money line. If I'm getting between that 10 points and 20 points, I'll put up to 5% on the money line. But if I'm getting 10 points or less, I'm put in the tournament. I'm putting 10% of my money on the money line. So meaning if I take a plus 8 and a half and I have 110 to win, I'm going to bet 99 to win 90 on plus 8 and a half.

28:52And I'm going to put that other 10 on the money line at plus to whatever. Absolutely. It's tournament time. And this is where you do see those live dogs get the W's and not just keep it close. So those spreads under 10. I'm not afraid to put 10% of my bet size on the money line knowing that when the dust settles, I'll have cash and uppodose where it'll be the ROI will be higher because I did that then not doing it. Okay. Thank you for that answer. And if you guys are new to the sports memo marketplace, we've got a special treat just for you guys, coupon code bet on it. You're going to get a free package over at sports memo until the tournament tips off, which is 1215 PM Eastern on Thursday, TCU, Ohio State. So head over to the sports memo marketplace sportsmemo.com coupon code bet on it. Now if you guys are thinking, I'm only giving out this game because Aiden Holloway got arrested the other day. You're dead wrong. We talked about this game on Sunday, where I said, hey, don't be surprised.

29:57This clash of styles between Hofstra and Alabama couldn't result in a first round upset. Yep. That's right. Hofstra, one of the slowest adjusted tempo teams, one of the slowest average possession length teams versus Bama that is absolutely one of the fastest ranked in the top five and adjusted tempo ranks in the top 10 and possession length. Here's a couple things Alabama doesn't do. They don't turn the ball over, but they don't get blocks. They don't get boards. Look for this Hofstra team to beat them down low. They have one of the best 2.0 percentage defenses in the country, top three over there on Kenpom. And I will say this as well. You want to keep an eye on teams such as Hofstra, like Marko said, versus the Big Bad SEC. When you have a team that a lot of people haven't heard of from the Coastal Athletic Conference,

30:59I believe that used to be the colonial, but they changed it on me, so I got to keep up on things like that. Hofstra's been a solid team now. They have one quad loss this year, but it was to UCF and it was only by four, and there are two and two against quad two opponents. We're currently on a seven game win streak, 11 and two in their last 12 games. So keep an eye here on this team that was a 12 and a half point underdog. Now down to 11 and a half due to no Aiden Holloway. I think they have a real shot to win this out, right? Like VR said, don't forget to sprinkle just a little bit on that money line. Marko DeAngelo, you're Deli, just absolutely crushed it during basketball season. But unfortunately, we don't really have a Deli spot during March Madness. It doesn't really work that way. There's not a sandwich of sorts. So you have a trap game for us this week. We do. Kelly, one thing before we leave the dogs segment, all three of us had double digit dogs.

32:02And I think I don't know if Ace has him nearby, but I think we should show the size of the dogs. You always say you like the big dog Scully. Look at this guy. Hello, Jackpot. Hello, Jackpot. Hello, Jackpot. So, Jackpot. Look at that. Look at that dog. Oh, good grief. Listen, I just adopted a friend. All the dogs are out. Yeah, like, I got a new fridge. He doesn't even like me. He likes bread. He loves me. This guy loves me to death. Oh, that has made my day great call by Marco. Marco D'Angelo, before you get into your trap game, let me know what you've got going on over at wagertalk.com. Well, it's a site wide special going on and you got to take advantage of the day you sign up. That's the day you start. March Madness, Bonanza, get every play through college basketball, all the tournaments,

33:04NIT, the big dance, get everything, including 5% plays. And remember, those 5% play sell for $35 by themselves. You'll get everything through the championship game for just $149. Pick your favorite capper. Pick a couple of them. Have a couple guys in your arsenal to attack the March Madness that we are about to begin. And we'll have some plays up for you. I'll have the 5% somewhere in here, probably in the first or second round this week, as we move on. And those have been very good to us. You know the record on those 5% plays, 43 in 23 over the last two plus years with those plays. So check it out. Get your favorite capper. I highly recommend picking up myself in ACE. That's a great one to punch. You watch us every week here on Bed On It. And as Kelly said, the deli will be open. What we're going to do this week is obviously because we can cover the Thursday and Friday

34:08games for you here on Bed On It. We can't cover the Saturday games yet because we don't know who's going to be playing. Well, that result will be after Thursday. We'll know who's playing Saturday. I'll open the deli up and preview a few games for you on the Saturday card. So look for that late Friday afternoon covering the Saturday card. I'll have a few plays for you in the deli and the deli has hit 60% this year, Kelly. And now speaking of that trap game that I was talking about, this one boy, I tell you what, you talk about a foul smell coming out of the deli. Hi, this is Alex Cantrowitz. I'm the host of Big Technology podcast, a long time reporter and an on air contributor to CNBC. And if you're like me, you're trying to figure out how artificial intelligence is changing the business world and our lives. So each week on Big Technology, I bring on key actors from companies building AI tech and outsiders trying to influence it, asking where this is all going. They come from places like Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and plenty more.

35:12So if you want to be smart with your wallet, your career choices and meetings with your colleagues and at dinner parties, listen to Big Technology podcast wherever you get your podcasts. When I saw this line, I had to go, what is that? You got a Mountain West Conference team as a favorite over a big East team. And they're the worst seed. Villanova is the number eight seed. You toss states the number nine seed. Well, I'll tell you, Kelly, we know the history of the Mountain West Conference and the big dance. It's not been good. In fact, the San Diego state a few years ago had that magical run to the championship game. It has been a nightmare for teams out of the Mountain West Conference. But why do I think that's going to be different this year? Well, there's only one team that made it out of the Mountain West Conference to the big dance this year. Usually you'll see two or three teams sometimes even sneak four in. And then they just got blasted because they were just mediocre.

36:14There was one team that was on top of this conference all year, and that was Utah State. They were the best team during the regular season. They were the best team during the tournament. They rolled through the tournament to get the conference championship. And I am going to ride them here. Villanova, yeah, they're the name, they're the conference. But I got to be honest with you. The biggest outside of Connecticut in St. John's really didn't impress me. And the fact that this line is Villanova, an underdog, screams to me that the right side is Utah State. And when you look at this, there's a reason we've got big shiny casinos here in Las Vegas, okay? It's not because they make mistakes, and the public is winning. It's not that. Okay, the books win, and they'll tell you that you can ask, hey, he says all the time.

37:15Over 90% of sports bettors lose, and I'm talking well over 90%. Here is a situation where you look at this, you look at the people that set those seedings. They sit in a room, they're watching games, they're making the rankings, they're making the seedings. Do you want to back them, or do you want to back the people? That sit in Las Vegas behind the counters and take real bets and set the numbers. I'm always going to side with the bookmakers over somebody setting a poll or a seeding, and they're telling me who the better team is. And I agree with them. It's Utah State. I'm not going to fall for the trap of betting a good looking underdog from a big conference, not doing it. We're going with Utah State. We're going to back to the Mountain West Conference, and you'll hear the stat a gazillion times over the next two days, how bad the Mountain West Conference has been in the big dance.

38:15There's only one team that's going to be a sample size of one this year. Utah State advances. All right. Well, Marco took the words right out of my mouth, because he probably saw the script and knew I was going to come in hot with how I should give the number. I left it for you. Kelly, I knew that. Now I closed out acts. Where'd it go, Kelly? Let's see if I still have it open. Nope. It's humorous. I got it. I got it. I got it. I got it. You were Davis going nine and two against VCE. Of course, that's what pops up right now. All right. Let's hear what your stat is, Marco. The stat is that you put in the script and didn't read. So I got your back, Kelly. It's all good. I got it. You got thrown off like our Marco already touched on it. Yeah. Last 20 years, man, since 2005, the Mountain West Conference is just 15 and 34 against the Fred. And as a nine seed or better, just three and 14 against the spread. So we're bucking some history there, but you know what? Utah State wasn't in any of those numbers. Let's go ahead.

39:16This is a sample size this year. You got to treat each game on its own basis and what you have this year. And Villanova is down. Utah State is up. I'm taking them. All right. As you're enjoying the show, I need you to take a pause. Make sure you hit that thumbs up button. Give us a like. If you're not already subscribed, you are behind. There are almost 242,000 other people that are. So take a moment to subscribe. Check out becoming it. Wage your talking insider $2.99 since her month, WT.buzz, backslash, insider. And yes, the insider is going to watch the show a few hours before the rest of you. And if you don't like us or you do, throw a comment or two in to the comment section. That's my new favorite thing. A market doesn't know that, but that's like what I've been doing in my side time between shows is being in the comment section. And I'm sure you guys can tell by the comments that it's no longer the person who is doing it. There's a lot of smart assiness in there now. And that would be coming from me. So let's get into these best bets for you guys for the first round here Thursday and

40:20Friday. VR, you and I are in agreement on this one. I do not understand the love for the Akron zips at this point in time. When it came out nine and a half, I was like, all right, talk to me here. I know Obi-Toppin got hurt about a month and a half ago. I know Texas Tech has kind of been floundering here into March. But boy, does this seem cheap to take the red raiders? Indeed. And you're getting a bet that I did get to the window with already. This was the first 4% I sent out for the tournament. And I'm going to give you the reasoning why again, I've power rated every side in total. So I have a prediction for the point spread and the total on every single match up. And again, I'm going to repeat it because it matters. And right now, sitting at number two, in conge basketball, profit overall over 70 units

41:22after finishing number one in conge football, using the same approach, NFL always the same exact approach. And here's what stuck out to me. I wasn't surprised to see the Akron money come in immediately at minus nine. Here's why because of the top in situation that you touched on. Having to replace that production obviously was going to be difficult because it happened in February and March madness was just around the corner. So they didn't have much time to recover 21.8 points per game, 10.8 rebounds, any shop 55% from the floor. Okay, you're not going to replace that instantly. But value of replacement players wanted the highest correlations to picking winners. And they have that replacement players not that to someone's going to step in and produce that, but the team to produce that they have the players in tech to do so. So here's the bottom line with this match up, power rating wise, Texas tech should be about

42:24a 10, 10 and a half point favorite. When I saw the line come out nine or so, it wasn't touchable at that point. I had about a point point and a half edge at the most, but it was that moved down because of the injury, when the limits were low, that brought it down to minus seven. That gave me a big enough edge line wise, about a three and a half point based on my number to fire. And that's why I sent out a 4% to subscribers. Now when I look at the screen, it's at minus eight. So we did our job. We got in. We got a little bit of closing line value. The market respected that minus seven bet. It's now sitting in minus eight. Why am I still using it for this show because it still qualifies as the best bet at eight. Again, I have this one, and I'm being generous. That's after shading for the top and injury, and I still have them closer to 11 than 10 Texas tech winning this game. So even at eight still qualifies for a best bet.

43:25It's just not even close real quickly. Texas tech had the eighth toughest schedule in all college basketball. So a top 10 toughest schedule and their top 25 in offense and top 25 in defense. So there is balance. This is comes heading into this tournament. Flip side of that coin, anchoring 100 and 93rd toughest strength of schedule. So almost 200, all right. And with that top strength of schedule, that easy strength of schedule, they had the 175th best defense. So this offensive Texas tech is not going to have problems scoring on Akron at all. And offensively Akron just cracked the top 50 in efficiency and now going up against the top 25 defense. They're going to have trouble scoring. So Texas tech will do the scoring. They won't have trouble stopping Akron. This 7, 8, 10 point lead will turn in the 17, 20 in the second half. And they easily pull away. Texas tech wins this game by double digits. It's a gift.

44:25It's a gift at minus eight. So yeah, I'm laying the chalk here to tell. All right, laying the chalk. Marco, I don't know what to make of this next game. I know that Louisville has not been great against the spread. But boy, on Sunday, when we were doing the live show, immediately, as soon as that side of the bracket came out, USF, USF, USF, USF, and I'm like, I just watched USF. And they just cash for me against Wichita State. I thought maybe they were getting a little bit too much love, but maybe our WagerTuck audience is sharper than I give them credit for. Tell me why you like the USF bulls. And do you think they are worth a money line sprinkle? Absolutely, Kelly. This is a team's playing their best ball of the season right now. They've won 11 in a row. They've gone eight and three against the spread during that 11 game winning streak, signaling that the market hasn't caught up to them yet. And this is another matchup where we're going to talk about the public's going to dismiss South Florida's run because they play in, you know, a lesser conference.

45:30They play in the American conference, which obviously is not considered a powerhouse compared to Louisville coming out of the mighty ACC. But the fact is, and you already alluded to it, the ACC, in my opinion this year, as a whole, was down, you know, yes, Duke, one of the best teams in the country. There's no question about that. But I think there was a big drop off after Duke, and especially when you got to the bottom half of the conference. So I'm not that impressed with Louisville. They've been inconsistent most of the year. And when you look at this, you also have another angle that I like. You've got a ranked team, Louisville, you know, is just barely in the top 25 against, you know, an unranked team, you know, that's an angle, you know, we talk about it in football when you can get, you know, what team under, you know, under a touchdown underdog in their unranked, playing a ranked team. That's always something that I'm going to look at. Well, same thing here. You're looking at a point spread of only five and a half.

46:32Looks a little bit easy, maybe to take that powerhouse team. And if you've watched Ben on it for any amount of time, you've heard me say gazillion times. If I can get the better defense of team getting points, I'm generally going to be lining up on that side and South Florida plays defense. They play a tenacious defense. They've held eight of their last 10 opponents to under 40% shooting from the field. They've held six of the last seven opponents to 66 or fewer points. This one, I think, is going to go right down to the wire. I think South Florida can dictate the tempo in this game. And we get a game in the 60s and I'm getting five and a half. Yeah, that's where I'm going to line up. Give me, oh, Florida, plus the points in, let's call it first upset of the tournament. Because this one starts early on Thursday. Let's get it. Let's get it into books and start things off on the right. But all right. I do agree with you, Marco, on USF.

47:34I do not trust this Louisville team. And you know what other team I don't trust? The University of Kansas. They have had a myriad of issues throughout this basketball season. And it all stems from one guy named Darren Peterson. And not allowing Bill Cote, Bill Self, their head coach to have any power over his locker room. And after he checked himself out of that game there in mid-January, things started to unravel. Loss at Iowa State, loss at home, an ugly loss at home to Cincinnati, Arizona, Arizona State Road Trip Out West. And then fine, they got to beat up on my wild cats there on that last Saturday home game. But what did they do that was impressive in the big 12 tournament? Not a damn thing. They get past TCU, no cover, and then just get absolutely throttled by Houston. They look like they didn't even want to be there. Now, I will say this. Defensively, KU is a pretty solid team outside of

48:36capitalizing off those defensive turnovers. But this Cal Baptist team has kind of been, we'll call it surprising, if you will. I know I'm not supposed to know anything about Cal Baptist, but I've got a couple cheat sheets. And I had to dig a little deep on this one, because 14 and a half points seems pretty steep. Cal Baptist, one of the best three point field goal percentages, defensively, the only team that's better Northern Iowa. So look at the rebounding percentage. And I think that that is going to be an advantage against the University of Kansas as well. Now, you're going to say, oh, Kelly, they only have one quad one opponent. And they got their asses kicked by BYU by 31. Okay, that's fair. I get that. That's really the only game we have to go off of. And that was way back in December, but they held it close against two other big 12 schools in that same time frame. Colorado, Utah,

49:38I don't know, this Kansas team is kind of limping into March. And 14 and a half for a team who acts like they don't want to be there. Darren Peterson's got one foot out door for the last six months to the NBA. One might argue he wants to show off in this tournament. And so be it if he is able to do so. But I'm going to take the two touchdowns with Cal Baptist and see if this team can't keep it just a little bit closer than everyone is expecting. All right, guys. March Madness edition of bet on it is under wraps. Thank you guys for hanging out with us here. Make sure you guys come back for the next two weeks. We'll be back on Tuesdays. Probably have the show up mid evening for those non insiders earlier for those who hang out with us as extra special community friends. Kelly Stewart here for Yanni the Greek Marco DiAngelo until next week. Let's bet on it.