Best Of A Numbers Game | March 26, 2026

0:00I'm doing great opening day. What a sweet 16 a lot going on. Oh, survivor, baby, I'm in three. I looked finally over 3,000 entries. I'm in 340 third place. Not good enough. So that means I'm below you. I got to have you submitted? No, but I will. I mean, I know what I'm saying. I already know what I'm saying. You know what? I'm not sure. I've gone back and back and forth over the past 24 hours of looking forward to I said to myself, I'm going to have a conversation with Gil Alexander about this on the show first and then I'm going to figure out what I'm going to do. All right. We'll do that later. We'll do that later. Zach and crack. Of course, Zach Cohen on not only the NBA at tennis, but he's got thoughts on the sweet 16 as well. Maybe he's got some

1:03plays in Miami today. We'll get to that momentarily. Dr. Bob joining us. Is that true? Allegedly. Allegedly. Yep. We have an alleged accusation. He'll be here. He'll be here. Dr. Bob on the sweet 16 going to ask him about the games. Obviously tonight, tomorrow night, who he's got simulated a win and a whole thing percentages now. And because the major league baseball season will did begin yesterday. Of course, with the giants getting beat by a touchdown against the Yankees in earnest begins today. 22 other teams in action. Joe Shion for the Joe Shion newsletter joining us today. He's also got a Joe Shion gaming thing happening this year. Yeah. New new new newsletter, a gaming newsletter. So let him explain that. But I actually just forwarded you his one from this morning. So yeah, he's got he's got some thoughts. Gracias. And then Bill Crackerberger unscripted with the crack man. Mm-hmm. A numbers game brought to you by Profit X. All of that coming down. I will also talk about, tell you here before opening pitch here with Paul Schien's first game this morning, isn't just over three hours. Paul Schien's and the pirates going up against the Metropolitan's.

2:07I am going to make a major league baseball play today. I'm just going to I'm just playing Schien's. Schien's first five. Schien's full game. Yeah. I like it. Hey, you give me plus money on the full game. You give me short minus money on the first five. Thank you very much. I'll take it. I might join you too. I felt I felt a little bit of FOMO last night of the like I was getting I got close to playing the Yankees team total over. Yeah, yeah, just kind of first game. And yeah, that was that was easy. Wait a minute. You're the perfect person. How do you love your boy, James with all his well, well, Danny alerted me via text message. I don't know about you. I watched a lot of a lot of watched a lot early. And then I was back and forth on TVs with all the NBA going. So I think I missed the the main James appearance. But then I caught him at the end of the game. I thought he was glorious. Dude's going to make so much money when he's when he's done with football Yankees beat the giant seven and nothing Logan Webb got a beat up in the second inning. Five spot. Yeah. Was it a five spot in the second? I believe it was. I think it was. And then yeah, even if he had pitched well, guess what? Got no run support at all. That's kind of his

3:14thing. I don't know what it is about this man's career. They can I give him runs seven and nothing Yankees. That's the opener. Um, Aaron judge though. Oh, for five with a golden sun barrel. Well, he's a strikeout. So he's terrible. So there's that. But I'm on skeens today. The other stuff that was going to the best two parts about that game last night. Other than the if you're Yankees Bakery Yankees fan, the puff cloud American flag before the game. You see that? That was unbelievable. Into the San Francisco clear skies, the beautiful red, white and blue cloud American flag was unbelievable. Well, well, I wasn't like fire. Yeah, they shut out. Well, whatever they whatever they smoke a smoke of smoke. That's cool. That's cool. It's like, pardon me. And then Barry Lamar bonds was was on the broadcast. Yep. Broke before it during and he told a story that I believe here to four Kelly has never been told before here to four where he said that back in 1993, would he eventually signed with his hometown giants? He got an offer from the Yankees

4:20and was prepared to take it. They were going to make him the highest paid player at the time, Major League Baseball. But he said boss George Steinbrunner on the phone said to him, yeah, you have to have it signed by 2 p.m. today though. And Barry said, what did you say and hung up on him? And he said, I'm going home. We're going to play for the giants. Never told that story before. That was the biggest news of the game yesterday. That bonds bonds could have perhaps should have been a Yankees. Yeah, we're not for the arrogance of George Steinbrunner. Oh, you got you got to love one a player of that level and an owner like that. Get on the phone with each other. Yeah, when demand start getting dropped things, I always go, I 100% believe that story, too. Yeah, me 100%. Okay, as much as we love Mary Bonds, I can also see him in 1993 being like, you're not going to tell me what to do. I'll go side anywhere else. I would think in any walk of life, if the boss is basically telegraphing the past at that point as to, I'm a horrible human. And this is going to be a nightmare for you if you come here. That's all you need to know. Yesterday, let's get to yesterday. Yesterday,

5:24a tennis run comes to a skid. By the way, we're still 16 and eight with over 10 units, 10 and a half units, positive over the last run, even with the OM3 yesterday. Kelly, I remember I have an OM3 and you'd make the same bets again. Oh, yeah, that was yesterday. And by the way, this is the beauty of the numbers game audience. They kind of get that, right? It's only the outliers who did that where it's like, okay, yes. So we had Jesse Pagula was a plus 180 play against the later. Rebok and a Pagula won the first set, lost the second and then got broken early by Rebok and in the third and just could not get over the off the rest of the way. Tip of the cap to Rebok and Pagula as a plus 180 dog goes down. Then Martín Londa Luce, a plus to 12 dog loses two yeary LaHechka 7 6 7 5 in a match that I would, I would, if I'm being honest, LaHechka deserved because I'm not sure Londa Luce would could have really dug into his serve at any point. So we lose that one. And then the kick in the, you know what? The pants.

6:29Tommy Paul. Tommy Paul is a short dog against our tour fees. There's a short dog or short of everything. Short dog. Short dog. Short dogs in the house. Shout out to short. Tommy Paul 0 for six on break points. That's not the worst of it. Worst of it. He gets to the third set. By the way, it was 7 6 6 7 6 7 6 2. He's up 6 2 in the third set tiebreaker. 6 2. You know what that means? That means four match points. Yeah. Guess what? Gackity. Gack. Gack. Gack. Gack. Gack. Gack. Gack. Gack. Lost to the next six points. Six to a tiebreaker for Gil. That means there's like a coin flip chance of it getting home. Brue. That's right. That's exactly right. Brutality. Anyway, and by the way, if he wins that, then it's, you know, you lose less than a unit on the day. And it's just a footnote. Now, Gil, that's how it goes. That's how it goes. It's interesting. Interesting betting psychology question. You, you asking there and I was kind of laughing after you said it because not only have I had 0 in three days that I would make these same exact plays again, my problem might be I swing too far that way where I'm so sure of it.

7:32We're like, I'd probably say that too often. You know, I mean, like I should probably do more reflective of whether I actually should have made those. There is that parallel. Yes. Well, the only play today and in Miami for me, we'll find out of Zach has anything else later. And I mentioned this play yesterday, Carolita Mojoba minus 11 versus Coco today in the women's semis right now looking at that price. Mojoba is actually going to actually get Mojoba to better price. Then I got her yesterday minus 11. I saw Mojoba got all the way to minus 120. Now she's down to about minus 105. So you can get her a better price against Coco, but I'm on Mojoba today against Coco. Go up. That's the only tennis play. The take of Paloza play hit yesterday. Yes, it did. Barely. Oh, yeah. For crying out loud. When I say barely, I'm talking, I'm talking about you gold and stay warriors. Good. Yeah. Who Ben Seraf was Tomahawk jamming against him yesterday. I was like, look at this

8:37kid, leaflet. He was, he was phenomenal. But, but warriors just hold it. It was the refs almost were part of the tank yesterday. Yeah. They was like held their whistle at the end. They're like, okay, we'll just let the warriors win this. Anyway, that gets home a four-legged parlay. The other legs were pretty fairly easier than that. And so our little tank of Paloza, braided parlay background, background singer kind of thing. Yeah, sorry, okay. Lakers ended up looking tighter than it really was. Yeah, it was, it was, it was way easier than what the final score says. I guess Denver was nip and tuk for about a half or so. That's fair to yeah. That one may be a little tighter than the final score. Anyway, it gets home. Sixty, uh, 65 cents on the dollar. So we are what? Seven and four on these for plus 1.69 units. If you take the individual legs, we are 40 and five. Think about that. You go 40 and five, you're only up 1.69 units. Nothing today because it's a short NBA slate, but we will resume this

9:39tomorrow. And I think it's, it's, it's just, it's a minefield, but nice to have in the background. You know, just like add a few checkers here and there. Yeah, absolutely. I was hoping in my head. I'll be honest with you. In my head, when we were up, when we were four and oh, and we were, what was that at that time? It was, you know, we were up four units or units, no, three plus units. At that point, I was like, you think we can squeeze 10 units out of this by the end of the day? That would have been amazing. We again, there, but yeah, but as long as you're in the positive, like he says, lower in the black, we'll still do this totally, totally. Yep. Look, there's, you know, other people have come with other ideas. There's, there's other ways you could try to do it. I think they, Gil was just put in in practice, right? The identifying these tanking teams and just money line are laying them every time. This is the results. Todd was telling me on his discord. He goes, Gil, you should see these discord people. Like, you started this thing and they're telling you how to do it. Gil doesn't know what he's doing with this stuff. Um, this is the, uh, now Danny has had to go, go to the, the smaller type graphic.

10:39Yeah. Yeah. We have a lot of these. Yeah. Just keep track. Just of mentioning that game, Maverick's nuggets coming, coming around to your side on this. I think the past few, like past week and a half games, I think Cooper flags going to win their rookie of the year. Man. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I've like, have you noticed that dude, like I was watching that game last, watching the last couple Mavericks games, they are running everything through him. He's putting up a million shots of game down the stretch. And meanwhile, whilst, whilst concudiples playing like 19 minutes of game for some reason, the past like five games. So the whole like argument, I was making a band's Cooper flag and the Mavericks tanking away as rookie of the year, starting to happen in Charlotte. Why would the MVP market is also getting tighter and tighter now? You see this? Yeah. So shade down to minus 700. It's still a big favor, but now it's down to minus 700. And we're talking on the other side about it made a lot of notes. Yeah. Like the other guys are creeping up. Yeah. Interesting. Interesting. I mean, it is MVP. Every year in the NBA,

11:41these guys are incredible. Coming back with that and per division in baseball, who's going to have the most wins in April. We'll do that next, numbers game. Vista, these sports betting network. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Vista programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Vista and pro. Numbers game on Vista. These sports betting network. If you're betting the sweet 16 or jumping into MLB as the season gets underway, now's the time to do it smarter with Vista and pro. With Vista and pro, you'll get daily best bets real time betting splits from draft kings and circa AI powered prop tools and match analysis plus 24 seven video and show replays on the

12:43Vista watch app. Every tournament game is covered on Vista.com with expert previews best bets betting trends plus our all new MLB betting guide with team previews and expert insights. And that's not only also get coverage of the NBA and NHL playoff races, plus our upcoming PJ masters betting guide with best bets from Vista golf experts start today for just $9.99 or say 50% with an annual subscription. Visit Vista.com slash subscribe that's V S I N dot com slash subscribe we get to eat speed and look uh general Connor Jake Paul Logan Paul Tommy Paul crap list that we didn't say crap Kelly Ryan Hyatt great take a blusa hits and I forgot to put the cat in the box sorry say uh shout out to Schrodinger's uh mm-hmm Schrodinger's cat chance copper pot I'm one of the guys in the discord poo pooing some of the take a blusa plays I'm just playing these slightly differently waiting to see who's uh starting not as brain dead Kelly hasn't been playing all them the same too so don't uh get mad at me well chance uh yeah if I if I was doing my show right up until tip off I could do that as well you know what I mean I hear what you say I don't blame

13:46me for that shoot him a gambling the only reason I'm not playing Iowa is because I'm in first place yeah kind of a square pool that I'm in everyone behind me should 100% play Iowa that's the correct way shooter I believe uh spence I miss when first pitch was always in Cincinnati yeah remember that Cincinnati was was the other one Baltimore was it since any Baltimore remember Cincinnati that afternoon game would always start the season this is a get off my lawn take but I always thought that was super cool nod to the red legs they did this because they were the first fully professional baseball team yeah I remember that as a kid they would start in Cincinnati in the day and then we evolved to like ESPN Sunday nights uh what's this okay we'll read more tweets coming up I just want to point this out before we get to Zach uh there was some news in the NFL that you texted us about before the game before the show I said before the game it's a game it's what we do in here yeah um Michael parts Mike up what do you say we're eyes full hearts it's right Michael Parsons expected to miss the first three to four games of the season so that's the uh

14:49the drift of his injury well drift into the first three to four games are the upcoming NFL season so note that accordingly season longer or note that as a good time to bet the packers note maybe I should wait till after week three or week four kind of thing with an adjusted season win total that off the NFL press this morning it's so difficult today that with with injury reports like this because there's a Jackson choreo thing going around and you can't confirm is this true or not did he is he on the aisle did he break his hand on so I don't know like there's there's other stuff going around that we have to just figure out if it's even true in this day and age of AI and misinformation and all that Zach Cohen joins us now courtesy the progressive guest line you follow him on Twitter it's skating tripods is that correct no that's betting on x skating tripods is Adam Burke I do this all the time betting on x is Zach skating tripods is Adam betting on x Zach of course uh writes about NBA writes about tennis he's also writing about the sweet 16 today

15:53Zach good morning sir good morning how you doing doing very well betting on x great great handle well done on that let's start with the tennis I had Tommy Paul last night did you I had feasts but I only had him to win a set so I would have been fine with Paul winning we would have both won that was an insane match ins maybe I mean honestly if I took my bed out of it one of the great matches of 2026 maybe it'll go down as one of the top 10 when all said and done it was just fantastic uh theater last night what did you land on today we have the women's semi's we have the men's quarters right second half of the men's quarters women's semi's or was this the second half of the women's quarters I can never keep track now because they do this yeah women's semi's today what do you got yeah I do have a lander abacuna plus 120 against arena sova link I did just see it insane sova link a stat that she has only I think she's 40 and oh in sets against everybody not named rebacuna this year so this is the only player that she's had trouble with but I do think that it's legitimate I mean you look at some of the most recent matches rebacuna had to won two

16:57straight before they met at indian wells how to championship point in that match I just don't think that she should be available at plus money against anyone at the moment I think that since the wta finals towards the end of last season she's been the best player in the world and I think that in these quicker conditions she can kind of trouble sabalanka even more than she normally does because I think that when she does so well against sabalanka that nobody else really can is rush her with her power it's only going to be easier for her to do that in quicker conditions so if she serves well I think this is a match she's going to win yeah for those who are like not hip to the tennis game like why would rebacuna and sabalanka meet in the semi's these draws are the reason that draws are done differently and randomly from from event to event is because if you always did it by ranking the same players would meet each other in the same rounds every single tournament so they have to have some randomization to it I think ego was the number two seed before this I think they use a system where the drift of her number two seeding was still involved so she ended up being

17:58on the other side of the ranking of the the bracket not that it mattered so that's why we're blocking and sabalanka just happened to be on the semi's as opposed to the finals you're same side same half of this tournament muhova and cocoa which way did you go there I took muhova I think that golf is getting really close to playing some of her best tennis league the forehand looks about as good as it's been in like months now the serve is just still problematic enough that I think muhova should be able to find a way to win this match it's been a really lapsided head in favor a golf five and oh against muhova but I do think that muhova with her steadier serve her ability to come up and win points at the net I think that's going to make the difference and get her through you know to beating this player for the first time in her career she did make a stride at the australian open she want to set off of her for the first time so I do think that that next step is winning and I think there's no better time then right now with golf you know dealing with some mechanical issues we are together on muhova sir on the men's side it is the

18:58second half of the quarter finals if you will so two matches on the quarter side we throw center to the side Serundalo and Sasha's Vera of how do you play this yeah this is kind of like a perfect storm for me because I think that Serundalo has been a really tough matchup fours Vera than the past and then you're talking about Serundalo at potentially his very best tournament and venue he has been so good in Miami I always call him mr. 305 and I just kind of think that you know what's Vera being a player with a weak forehand this matchup is top for him because Serundalo has one of the best forehands in the sport probably a top five forehand in the men's game and you know playing in the quicker conditions which I mentioned Serundalo served it comes a little bit more dangerous so I do think that we are with the confidence that he already has having beaten Vera in three of the five full matches they played adding to that the fact that he plays so well in this building I do think this is a really good spot for him to you know win a set and potentially even win the match Serundalo mr. 305 Kelly as opposed to pit bull mr. world wide

20:01that's how I know the two that's true yeah always friends Cisco all right sweet sixteen or sweet sixteen the tournament resumes tonight with sweet sixteen Arizona and Arkansas and then you have Purdue and Texas what are you doing with these two games yeah I parlayed Purdue and Arizona Purdue is also my survivor pick so have a lot riding on bullet maker's money line saved them specifically for this matchup you know a couple days ago but with the first game Purdue and Texas I just kind of am trusting in what we've seen over the course of the entire season rather than what we've seen throughout the tournament and this Texas team is better offensively than they are defensively but Purdue is the best offense in all college basketball number one in adjusted offensive efficiency they are also much better than the long horns when you're looking at adjusted defensive efficiency and I do think that with Braden Smith you know being one of the best point guards of the nation one of the best decision makers in the nation you're going to see Purdue's three point shooting kind of way up a Texas team that is just 249th in college basketball in three point

21:07percentage defense and I said this on hardwood handicap versus morning because I did talk about it a little bit Texas does a good job of running opponents off the line but I just don't think they're going to be able to do it consistently against Purdue Purdue really does get whatever shots they want because of how good Smith is you know as of all handler so an Arizona Purdue money line parlay which you lay about minus 142 ishon that's that that's the play there. Yep and with the Arizona side of it I've talked about this a little bit you know with Kelly and JVT in terms of the draft stuff but you know as good as Darius A cup is offensively he's bit of a nightmare defensively and the same kind of goes for Malik Thomas so I get that Arkansas team is very good offensively when you look at the guards but I defensively they're going to have a lot of problems defending like especially Braden Burries for Arizona and Arizona is potentially the best defense in all college basketball so I think they're going to have some answers for the hogs I think this is a game that Arizona really should win potentially with just their toughness alone they're just a much better rebounding team

22:09also will add that I just kind of think that you know this is an Arizona team that if you're going to beat them you're going to shoot them off the floor from three Arizona just has a very low three point rate this Arkansas team is really not much better when it comes to firing away from deep so if you're not winning the math battle against the wild cats I don't know how you're beating them and I'm not sure the razorbacks are going to do that. What's the line about a cup defense that you heard yesterday? No I saw it was a tweet from over the weekend and it was a it was a source from inside a NBA front office that said he could possibly be the worst defender in the NBA next season and someone's going to say it's something about NBA defense someone's going to draft him first really really we're all excited about this he might be my favorite player already though that sounds awesome 30 points per game and you're at terrible defender you're my kind of guy I don't know if I craft you one though is the issue all right Zach has a play on Ilanoi Houston which of course is the marquee matchup of the four games tonight and of course NBA plays on a short slate but plays nonetheless coming back was that going on a numbers game at

23:12Feast of the sports betting network a special numbers game investigation reveals that baseball season is here and Feast and Pro just made it a whole lot more profitable with the MLB AI player prop projections powered by Opta AI we're giving you data driven projections for both hitters and pictures compared directly to draft King's lines so you know exactly where the value is and every day we bring it all down into the top value plays in strong plays so you don't have to do the heavy lifting got that Kelly top value plays as one category got it strong plays a second category and then I don't have to lift things you do not have to lift good well nothing heavy nothing heavy get access now with the Veece and Pro subscription at visa.com slash MLB props check that out Alexander Kelly Biddle circus is setting up all their opening day festivities behind us right now yeah look they got the bunting going see this yeah they always got the bunting just off

24:16screen the little little pitching setup they always do a little first pitch for the season the bunting feels like a mic palm touch doesn't it that feels like something could be think is that Jonathan Von Tobelon camera down there doing working for his other job other radio man has another job local local yes being Las Vegas yep do shows down there for him there's a chili cheese dog stand down there you know I'm wondering what time it opens up oh how early is too early to have a chili cheese dog what time do we get off 10 o'clock I think that's appropriate time to get one before them we should probably I don't know if he gets the tingles every time a major league baseball season opens by the way numbers game brought you by prophet X we should point out sign up now scan the QR code for more I don't know if he gets as excited as he always does for opening day major league baseball and yes I know there was a game last night but we will find out now if he does from Joe she and the author of the Joe she in newsletter kind enough to join us on this opening day courtesy of the progressive guest line Joe the excitement still there after all these years oh absolutely I

25:18mean this is a holiday and this is one of the great days of the year and you mentioned last night it was great to watch a game last night but today is opening day we've got 11 games from one o'clock here until after midnight the the guardians mariner's game so it's going to be a lot of fun and you know as I said earlier it kicks off this this 186 day run where we just get our game every day it's different than any other sports season to me because it is there every single day whether you're gambling or just a fan or you just love the game that that constancy is what makes it and I don't think that's a word that that is what makes it great we understood think about that though 162 games for each of these teams in 184 days span of majorly baseball before we get to your picks and I know you have some sweet 16 plays as well because the man isn't just pigeonholed into baseball he loves himself some basketball you are doing some gaming stuff this year you are doing some Joe she and betting baseball stuff yeah I appreciate you mentioned in that yesterday I've been running a gaming adjunct to the main Joe she and baseball newsletter for four

26:19years now you know go back to 2018 when Paspo went through and this just becomes something that people enjoy some fans really enjoy whether it's their playing themselves and they just enjoy the content so starting in 2022 excuse me 2023 I started running a free gaming adjunct to the main newsletter you have to be a subscriber to the newsletter to get it but I run 120 issues a year maybe three to four times a week with picks and also concepts and talking about you know what's the best way to do this talking about issues within the industry a little bit although I have leaned more towards picks but yeah if you're a subscriber to the main newsletter you can sign up for this one as well it's uh you know it's at the first I want to say the sixth edition came out today I did a bunch of futures uh in January and Mark sent out those to people and today we start picking games I love it I'm the best place for folks to sign up for all this is where joshian.com you'll find an archive there with like 25s 33 issues there's excerpts from everything that I do there's a couple of free pieces this week my opening day piece some team

27:20capsules from the scene season preview joshian.com you get all that and also tell you how to sign up okay um I lied one more thing before we get to the picks because I'm so curious about this um was there any of your purist baseball subscribers who once you started doing the gaming thing sent you like a clutch my pearls email we're like I can't believe you're doing this betting stuff Joe was there anybody do you get any of that I wouldn't that that's a little dismissive to to phrase it that way I will say that there were objections which is one more reason I set it up like this there was I want to say the fall of 2022 I put some of this into the main newsletter and I did get some pushback now there are people who for their own reasons stay away from gambling content and I have to respect that and you got to remember deal this is baseball you know baseball fans were told for a hundred years this is bad and then in 2020 in 2018 2019 it was like yay go gamble on baseball and I think there's some whiplash there and there are older fans who are you know really still believe in that this should be nowhere near the game so I really wanted to

28:22respect that so I found this solution to have a the main newsletter maybe I do one piece a year where I put props in there and then I put all the gaming content separately because you really there are people who don't want chocolate in their peanut butter I really want to respect that yeah yeah you don't want to mix chocolate in your peanut butter Kelly well I did but sometimes it tastes good if you know what I mean Joe right sometimes it tastes good all right let's get to your plays today I want to start with cubs in the nets what he got here yeah this is chasing what I think is going to be an all-time terrible bullpen in in DC they're in a rebuilding mode and when you're in a rebuilding mode you just don't have to care about your bullpen they've got Clayton the former Yankee and Dodger prospects probably their best reliever he's going to be their saves guy but overall this is going to be a bad bullpen I normally wouldn't target team totals for a home favorite because you're usually only going to get eight at bass it's Chicago you might get some bad weather late in this game as well but that bullpen is so bad I have no problem projecting that the cubs can get three runs off it after chasing Kate Cavalli out of the game

29:24and if you're sitting there in game you might have an opportunity to take it at three and a half team total even two and a half depending on how well Cavalli pitches in the first half of the game but this is targeting a terrible nats bullpen cubs over to four and a half runs day game and rigley let's go to the tigers in the Padres tonight at petco where are you playing here yeah how often you're really going to get tarryx school bull at minus 130 oh that's the lowest number I saw on him this is a Padres team that's going to struggle to score runs they improve the offense miss season last year but they really didn't do anything this winter to make it any better for going up against Nick Pavello who guys very great story great story last last year they sent him to this really weird four-year deal that was a one-year deal with a bunch of opt-outs he went out and had a career year but the fit the feeling independent pitching was about two-thirds of a run higher than his actual ERA some rejecting some aggression out of him this year the big pitching gap is what I'm taking the tigers at minus 130 all right angels at the Astros Astros a big favorite here on opening day I don't think you're going to see a whole lot of runs scored in this one these are two bottom ten offenses for me in baseball the Astros again heavily right-handed

30:25Jose Soriano great roundball pitcher kind of an underrated guy is in a 3.735 last year he's not a number one but he's the angels number one I want to stay away from both of these bullpins as well so I was able to find an under four first five innings at plus money at bed MGM so again the first five under maybe one again at four and a quarter pay the extra should be 4.5 pay the extra juice but I think the that's going to be a very low scoring game for the first half okay and those are the three plays then Cubs team total over four to half versus the nationals Tigers with Terrick Scoobal on the hill versus the Padres minus 130 won't I think Joe's right won't find a a shorter price on Scoobal perhaps all year and then the angels Astros first five under four they're in Houston tonight plus 105 all right it is the sweet 16 we were talking a little bit about this you weren't all about baseball the time you you have a basketball background as well which you can share with us which which was interesting to me because it was like an all-star team of guys over at when you were doing basketball perspectives was it at the end of the 2000s and they had

31:26the odds over there and I go back with college basketball to the 80s I was in fifth grade when the St. John's had those those great teams with Chris Mullin and Bill Winnington you go to Mark Jackson Walter Barry so that's where I came by my love college basketball then I went to USC when Harold Minor was there so I've been loving the game for a long time in the late 2000s I've found my final years at Perspectus we actually started basketball perspectives had a couple of annuals we had a website some great talent there Kevin Pelton who's now with ESPN John Gassaway who is with ESPN for a while Ken Pomeroy who's like the biggest thing in college basketball now made a great group of guys there did that for a couple of years so you know when I started the gaming outlet it gave me an opportunity to do some college basketball work each March and again it's for casuals I'm not because I'm not I'm you know a fraction of guy like Todd Wishing of the intelligence that he has a great Peterson some of the great college basketball guests that you have but I enjoyed doing it for my audience we went 14 and nine over the weekend so that was nice um yeah a couple of picks for tonight you the one I really really like here is the the over in this Arizona game we saw

32:29Arkansas give up 78 points to Hawaii we saw him give up 88 to high point I don't think they're going to be able to stop Arizona I think this is going to be something all the lines of 90 to 80 okay so that's you said over 165 and a half is that your play in the Arkansas Arizona game okay and then you have another play tonight as well I know a lot of people are on the align eye and this numbers bounced around a lot and you know they've looked very good but it to me Houston is is actually my pick for the national championship I want to stay away from the line here it's like say it's bounced around it was two and a half this morning just give me the money line at 160 it's a big price to pay but I don't know how Illinois stops that Houston back court I think they can go shot for shot here and I expect used to lock them down in the second half and get the win okay uh tomorrow night you have a plan Alabama and Michigan yeah I don't know well either one of these teams really stops each other Michigan's been good defensively even without Aiden Holloway Alabama has a really dangerous offense they're going to throw up a bunch of threes I expect this game to get into the high 80s as well so lined in 172 and a half today give me that and you know

33:33expecting our Alabama to push this game into the 90s even I actually have Alabama going to the final four so I think this is actually one of the best games of the weekend let's go let's go Alabama to the final four Houston Millett and company Joe a pleasure um first pitch uh the met in the pirates and just to let us in hour and a half enjoy thanks so much for coming on well now we're 34 minutes 22 seconds after I'm counting that's your county thank you so much appreciate the time Joshi Joshi and dot com for all of his newsletter information if you want to sign up there doctor Bob on the sweet 16 you don't want to miss that that's next on a numbers game at visa these sports betting network numbers game on visa these sports betting network a numbers game probably brought you by profit x if you're not on profit x yet now's the time it's out of April 6th purchase at least

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35:41unit play on Houston minus the back down to two and a half juiced against Illinois my NCAA tournament ratings only include gains against quality opponent that throw out all the mismatches that hurts Illinois a little bit given that the align I were relatively better against bad teams this season Houston for the first time in memory was actually a little bit better relatively against better teams than they were against bad teams that's normally not the case and usually why I have them a little bit down in my NCAA tournament ratings this year they are a little bit better against better teams so that who helps them a little bit as far as the line value goes also there's a significant advantage playing in their home city teams playing NCAA tournament games in their home state are 58 percent against the spread over decades on the advantage playing their home city is a little bit more than that with that included with my ratings I favor Houston by four and a half points in this game so there's some solid line value there also one of Illinois strengths is that they don't send their opponents to the line they're ranked first in the nation by a

36:44wide margin in the fewest opponents free throws allowed per a hundred possessions that's a problem for teams that depend on free throws is a big part of the offense however Houston's often doesn't depend on free throws who was ranked number three hundred and fifty one in the nation in offensive free throw rate but they don't care that Illinois doesn't on free throws because they don't depend on free throws Illinois is 26 and eight this season but the align are just seven and five straight up and four and eight against the spread against teams that rank lower than number two twenty five in the nation in offensive free throw rate free throw rate three of those wins were Texas Rio grand Florida Gold Coast and Colgate so against better teams they're they're four and five straight up against teams that don't depend on free throws also Illinois's own four straight up and four against the spread against the opponents that rank in the top fifty in the nation and two points field gold defense Houston ranks number nine in two point defense so I like the matchup I have some rating value but Houston is a one unit play at minus three and a half or less and

37:45right now it's minus two and a half minus fifteen so you can play there on these things next I'm going to go to an opinion a half unit play on half unit playing Purdue minus seven and half against Texas Purdue ranked eight in the nation and three point shooting boilermakers are susceptible to being upset when they're outside shots shots aren't falling at a high rate however Texas ranks two hundred and fifty third in the nation and three point defense they do not defend the three point very well Purdue is fourteen and those straight up against teams that rank higher than a hundred and fifty at the three point defense all fourteen of those wins were by seven or more thirteen of the fourteen by eight or more boilermakers are nine and five against spread of those games compared to eight fourteen and one against the spread against teams that rank in the top one fifty and three point defense of stopping the three which you need to do to be Purdue Texas does not do this now Purdue's weakness is their two point defense they rank two hundred forty fourth in the nation and two point defense but the boilermakers don't allow a lot of two point shots they force teams to shoot three pointers forty four percent of opponent shots are from beyond

38:50the arc that's that's a high percentage Purdue also doesn't send their opponents to the line much as they rank seventh in the nation in the lowest free throw attempt rate on defense now Texas only twenty six percent of Texas's points come from three point shots which is three hundred third in the nation so being forced to take more three pointers is likely a disadvantage for the long horns who break much higher in two point shooting Texas also ranks twenty eighth in percentage of their points that come from free throws and then I say and get those easy points against a Purdue team that ranks eighth and eighth lowest in in points allowed via the free throw line so this is not a great match up for the Texas offense looks like CJ Cox is going to play for Purdue after leaving the last game with a minor knee hyper extension my ratings favor Purdue by seven point eight points so it's not like this is a line value place since the line is seven and a half some places have eight the reason for the play is one point six points worth of statistical profile indicators now during the tournament there are certain types of teams that played better than

39:51expected and they said both and did have a tournament and types of teams that play relatively worse based on their statistical characteristics which which have been isolated so there's a one point six points of statistical profile indicated is a pretty huge advantage in favor of Purdue obviously Texas has played well in this tournament but Purdue profiled as a team that should perform better than expected in this tournament based on their statistical profile so a half unit play on Purdue based on the statistical profile indicators the next game I thought was most interesting match I don't have a play on it it's a lean on Arizona minus eight against Arkansas Arkansas is a very good offensive team they're ranked 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage they're ranked first and lowest turnover percentage overall they're the fifth best offensive team in compensated points per possession you know relative to the teams you face defensively Arizona however number one in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense and Arkansas's oh and three against teams that rank in the top 15 in effective field goal defense

40:56losing by an average of 17 points to Duke number nine in in in EFG defense huge to number 11 and Florida number 12 Arizona meanwhile 4-0 straight up to 4-0 against the spread against team that rank in the top 10 in compensated offensive efficiency that's Alabama Florida and Houston twice they covered the spread and all four of those games the wild cats do not sacrifice good defensive position to force turnovers so teams that don't turn the ball over much don't really affect them so Arkansas the fact is they don't turn the ball or it doesn't matter because Arizona doesn't try to turn over teams Arizona's unbeaten in 13 13 games in teams that rank in the top 100 and lowest offensive turnover percentage including three and oh against teams that rank in the top 10 and lowest turn of a rate which is Houston twice and Alabama the matchup really works for Arizona's offense Arkansas is a horrible two-point defense they allow 54% on shots inside the arc which is number 282 75 in the nation calipers teams always make sure teams don't beat them with three point shots

41:58and they're very good in three point defense but they'll allow teams to get inside the arc and convert from on those shots however only 27% of Arizona shots are from beyond the arc which ranks 360 third in the nation out of 365 teams Arizona doesn't want to shoot three point is they want to get inside and punishes inside the arc and they shoot 50 they get 57% of their points from two-point makes which is 14th most in the nation so facing a defense that is terrible and two-point defense is ideal for the wild cat and raise your back to good three-point defense is not really an issue given that Arizona doesn't focus on taking three-point shots so I really like the matchup there also you know speaking so the two things offense and defense I don't think this is a great match before Arkansas the team most similar to Arizona that Arkansas face this season is Florida Florida is an efficient two-point shooting team that doesn't depend on three-point shots there number 320 in the nation and percentage of points that come from three-point shots and Florida

42:58played good defense without trying to force turnovers the numbers seven and defensive rating despite ranking just 269th in turnovers force per possession so very similar to Arizona said Arizona better than Florida Arkansas played Florida once they lost 77 to 111 I don't think this game is going to be that ugly but the matchups clearly favor favor Arizona and I'm going to lean to Arizona minus eight despite not having any line die on the game really I favor Arizona about eight and a half so a lean on on Arizona based on the matchups and if we have time I've got I've got a lean on Iowa plus the one and a half against Nebraska this goes back to the statistical profile indicators Iowa is a team with the characteristics of a team that tend to perform their rating in the incidentally tournament they have 1.2 points worth of statistical profile indicators in this game when they beat Florida they had a 2.1 point advantage in statistical profile indicators heading into the gaming in Florida and the upset the gators now some I think there might be a

43:59letdown from a number nine seed after beating a number one seed but interestingly enough teams that beat a number one seed as an underdog of more than four points they could exclude other number one seed those teams are 36 14 and one against the spread and their next tournament game so I'm not too worried about a letdown here is maybe it's more of an indicator that Iowa is the team to look out for so I'm going to lean with Iowa plus the one and a half against Nebraska in that game good talk Bob good catch it up with you that was outstanding oh yeah 37.5 wow glad I could find out what's going on in your guys's life all right to recap Houston is a play per do is a half unit play and then leans but not plays on Arizona and Iowa that's the that's correct that's right doctor Bob everybody there is unlike any other thank you Bob appreciated all right got the good doctor Bob at doctor Bob sports dr bob sports dot com by the way is where he can find his site as well bill krakenberg unscripted on the other side it's a numbers game at beast of these sports

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