Best Of A Numbers Game | January 8, 2026

0:00That's too bad, man. That we have the, uh, the issue with, uh, cleave. He will be on the Megapod next week though. So it's, uh, Drew today, Drew Densey today on the wild card version of the Megapod cleave TA on the divisional round version of the beating the book of Megapod next week. So we look forward to that for more, uh, more from cleave. We've got short change, uh, this is from a stick our not all on Twitter. The most interesting part of the tray young trade for me is that trade Johnson is no longer blocked by CJ McCollum. Yes. He says, imagine the tray and tray 80s poster. It's so true. It's so true. The cheesy 80s poster or the bullets were the thunder and lightning. That was their whole ad campaign at that time posters. That was our big form of entertainment. Oh, man, posters, uh, posters so many on the walls as a kid. Come on, man. Farrah faucet. Jason H 11. Sorry.

1:02Well, I lost you lost. You lost me for a second already bet Jags highest scoring team plus seven 80. Jason H 11 says Trevor Lawrence, most yards plus 1040. Josh Jacobs, most rushing yards plus 690. Van Duel has a daily boost going on those markets. Okay, therapy. Anything from Dr. Bob on tonight's game. Uh, yeah, he always does analysis for every game, but as, as far as a bet is concerned, no, he says his numbers too close to market both on side and total. So nothing on anything in tonight's game between Miami and Ole Miss, but you know who might have some thoughts Tim Murray might have some thoughts. He's the host of recent prime time. He's the host of the college football betting podcast. He's also host of the college football tailgate show and he joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You can follow him on Twitter at one. That's a number one. Tim Murray with his, uh, royal wave that he just did for us right there. How you doing, man? Oh, man, I'm just, I mean, can you feel the excitement in the nation's capital with tray young coming to town? It's palpable. I mean, kill. Oh, man, I mean, I mean, I'm just been

2:03getting calls. I mean, this, this puppy has not rang once or gotten one text from anyone that I, uh, I tried to make this point the other day when this first came up. I'm like, people understand you have to find wizards fans first to actually get their reaction to this. They don't exist. I, uh, it might be a little harsh. And maybe this is a offseason topic, not the day of, you know, the college football playoff. I think the wizards are a top five most irrelevant sports franchise. Oh, I brought this up. This is what I said. You're doing what you're doing a bit. I said the other day I go, I know this is going to spark some sports talk radio. At the word I used was not irrelevant. The word I used was inconsequential. Same thing, right? Like it's just just kind of live. Yeah. They live in like that mediocrity. Land Kelly knows more so than we do, but like they're just like, uh, you know, 30 and 52. They just kind of live in that random land of they're not going to be the thunder and tank and then be the best team in the NBA. It's just, Hey, man, we had that year where they made it to the Eastern Conference semi finals and

3:05game seven against the Celtics. Never forget, you know, it's just so sad, never forget. It's gotten so sad to this point where it's just like they keep like, it's like they, it's so insulting to the fans, right? It's like as long as we get one semi big name, like it will bring enough people that who cares? They had their name. Denny Avdia. Let me know. Let me know. By the way, last thing before we get to Miami and Ole Miss Mike McDaniel just got fired. He used to, of course, the famous 2013 Washington Redskins photo with all the coaches, right? Matt LaFloor Kyle Shanahan, Ray Morris, Mike McDaniel. I mean, they were all there. O.C., you were saying off air? You think? Sure. I mean, I, I told you, I don't think they should have fired Cliff Kingsbury. I thought that was an odd choice. I said the same. My Dan Quinn. It's not his fault that Jaden Daniels was her Terry McClure and was hurt. The offensive line was awful, but yeah, I mean, if Mike McDaniel's interest of coming to the nation's capital where he once coached and the owner has gone and he believes in Jaden Daniels, absolutely. Yeah, I would,

4:08I think they'll have to get in line. I think Mike McDaniel will be a very hot commodity from the offensive coordinating route. But yeah, for Washington, I think if you're going to fire Cliff Kingsbury, I think Mike McDaniel is a very, very good replacement. Absolutely. I would agree. All right, festival tonight, Miami, Ole Miss, Canes, three and a half, we're showing three and a half, 52 and a half. There's three's out there with extra juice on a Canes tonight. How do you view this game? Then what I said earlier was, I mean, at some point, the Ole Miss lack of coaching, like two more coaches gone now. Kind of has to matter, I think. I bet Miami, I'm curious where you lie on this. Well, I thought it was going to matter in the sugar bowl and it did not for the first time in what 75 consecutive games, Kirby Smart lost a game when having the lead going into the fourth quarter. But we're not here to do an autopsy on some decisions in the fourth quarter. We're looking at the game tonight. I'll be honest, I don't have a bet on the side right now.

5:11I would lean towards Ole Miss. I actually do think it's a decent live betting game, a little hint, decent prime time. We'll be on the air watching it. But for me, Gil, what I'm most curious about is the total and more specifically the first half. And I know first half-unders have kind of been the craze this postseason, 27 and 16 by my count to the under. But I think what you're going to see in this game, especially in the first half, is a team in Miami that is incredibly slow, wants to be methodical. I believe my guy Brett Cianci over at Pick Six previews has them as the fifth slowest pace of play amongst powerful teams. That would be Miami. And then you have Ole Miss. They want to go, go, go, right there, up tempo. They want to run plays quickly. So I think you're going to get this kind of tug of war from a pace standpoint. So you're looking at what, 25 and a half out there in the betting market from a first half standpoint. So I did bet some under

6:14first half. I think I got 26 and a half. You know, look around. You might get this number to go up because the total is rising a little bit. Why I wouldn't play full game is what we saw, Gil, in the sugar bowl. This thing could get wild in the second half. And is there going to come a point in time where Miami has to abandon their script and maybe play a little bit more up tempo, maybe be a little bit more aggressive because they have not had to be aggressive. And I think to the, that's to the positive of Carson Beck. Don't make Carson Beck make risky throws. A lot of his throws have been shorter. They're leaning on Mark Fletcher. I expect Mark Fletcher to have a pretty big game here. So my main bet is first half under. But I did take a little dabble. And this one, I'm just going to laugh when I'm watching the game. I took Carson Beck over five and a half rushing yards. Nice. This is an Ole Miss team that does not get to the quarterback very well. This is a Miami offensive line that is elite. Now Carson Beck, not the most fleet of foot gentleman in the world. But you saw him extend some drives against Ohio State. And I always love

7:20in these big time games. Last year we saw Will Howard run for a season high in the national championship against Notre Dame. So can Carson Beck extend a couple of drives with his feet and get us over five and a half. And as many of you know, the worry about rushing props in college when it comes to quarterbacks, sacks do count against your rushing numbers. So I do have a small play on over five and a half rushing yards for Carson Beck. Carson Beck who made all the plays he needed to on in third down situations. When we last saw him in the quarter finals, including by the way one run, I believe for 11 yards, which we've got you over just on that play alone. So you just need one of those. We won't be able to talk to you before tomorrow night Indiana and Oregon with the Hoosiers a three and a half point favorite against the ducks in the rematch if you will of the game earlier this year in Eugene. How do you see this? Yeah, I think that's the fun part about looking at what we saw back in October and how do we carry that over to what we'll see tomorrow

8:21night down in Atlanta. So you think back to the game in October, Oregon closes six and a half seven point favorites. And Indiana goes out there wins the game 30 to 20. And if you go back and you rewatch the game where you look at some of the advanced numbers from a guy like Bill Conley over at SP Plus, the adjusted point spread was about 16 points in this game. Indiana dominated Oregon. There was a pick six in there that kind of skewed things in the fourth quarter in Indiana ultimately went right back down the field. Now when you look at the injuries now for Oregon, Davidson is out. That's their power back. So that's a big loss there for the Oregon duck. So that is certainly a concern for me when I look at a guy like Jordan Davidson who just had two touchdown runs in the orange bowl. I jumped in on the under in this one. You know, not feeling as confident I guess as the market is pushing back now up to 48 and a half. I just when I look at this game guys, I fully think it's just going to be an absolute war. I don't know. Hagler

9:24herds is the right, you know, comparison where they're going to be in the middle of the ring, just swinging at each other. But I think the defense of both of these teams, the physicality of both of these teams are going to be on display. You know, I'll compare it to last year's orange bowl. I went to Notre Dame Penn State. It was a low scoring first half and then the second half kind of got a little crazy. And that's always a concern too, right? Where in the fourth quarter, little bit of desperation, you know, I love Raven Steelers on Sunday night football. So I split my unit guys in this one took first half under 23 and a half full game under 47 and a half. Obviously, you can get a better number now. Lean a little bit towards Oregon plus the points haven't gotten there yet. I was going to wait and see how this one ultimately goes. Does the money come in behind Indiana? Do we get a four? Do we get back to that four and a half? We were. But right now what I'm heading into this game guys is a split unit play first half full game under Oregon and Indiana.

10:26One word answer, yes or no. Ridiculous to think this might have something to do with who ends up as the number one pick in the draft. Also between more and Mendoza based on. It's ridiculous. Yes, but I think it will affect the betting market. Okay, there it is. I agree with that assessment. Ridiculous to think one game would. But yes, the betting market could get affected. Thank you, too. Yeah, you're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners, but let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data, and the discipline. And now so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro. Yeah. Numbers game on FISA. These sports betting network. They don't forget check out the sharp plays on

11:28match transparency with records updated daily AI betting analysis real time global betting info and alerts directly from the pros scan the QR code for more. We invite you to check them out. Sharpe plays dot com. It's Gil Alexander Kelly Bidlin alongside this gentleman is one of our favorites. We love him and you couldn't tell that we love him because it's been too long since we've had him on the show. Hopefully we can have him on not only today, but also get him on the Megapod next week schedule permitting. He is one of the best. He will he gets uncomfortable when I say this, but he really is one of the best NFL follows. There is on Twitter at cleave TA CL EV TA TA joins us now from somewhere in the Cleveland area courtesy of the progressive guest line. How you doing, man? I'm good guys. How are you? Can't believe we're heading to the playoffs in an interesting season and the playoffs will be really interesting. That's for sure. That's for sure. Well, before we get into this is your wild card thoughts, your wild card weekend thoughts. Can you let's talk about what we just talked about briefly off air. You had a great season, but in one way and not the other explain.

12:33Yes. So from a personal kind of betting perspective, I hit probably nearly nearly 60% from sides and totals, but when it comes to things like circa millions, I was just below 500 for the year and just never gained ground, gained traction. I think it was it's a combination of played a little bit too much game theory. I tried to take some stale lines in the contest. Didn't actually bet those, but put them in the contest and a lot of those lost. And then a bunch of other times, I bet early in the week, usually I'm a Monday, Tuesday guy when it comes to sides, especially those lines move so much by the time you get to the contest lines, I don't even put them in my card. And you know, because the number moved too much and don't think there's value anymore. And you know, those end up hitting personally, but you know, I don't include them in my card. So it was just kind of an odd season in that regard. But you know, I guess if I'm going to win one or the other, I'll take my personal wagers. Yes. Real money instead of absolutely. If you had to pick one of them. All right. Let's let's do wild car weekend. Let's start with what you like best side or total.

13:39Yes. So right as right as we got to the good part, we lost clear. Oh, that was going to be exciting. I agree. Hi, whatever he said, whatever he's about to say, I completely agree. The guy who got cut off right there, he was drifting there at the end there. I was wondering I was going to get it back on. By the way, we have some breaking news in the meantime while we get him. Boy, oh boy, it has happened. Adam Schefter reporting that the dolphins have fired head coach Mike McDaniel. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross met with McDaniel this week to discuss the season after that meeting and reflection. Ross decided to move on. Wow. This was one of those where earlier in the season, we thought he could be the first coach fired. But then sadly, not sadly, but good for him, the dolphins turned it around, quote unquote, right? Turned it around enough where they didn't stink anymore. And you thought maybe Mike McDaniel survives this, but apparently not not apparently evidently not done though, like he would. Yes, it felt like

14:40he was safe by the end of the season. He was as soon as the season ends and he didn't get fired immediately. It felt like he was even safe for Gil. You know, the first thought I had when Danny texted this over, fair, unfair. This is John Harbaugh, we're immediately related. Like, is this immediately linked to John Harbaugh? I don't know. I mean, they want to stuck around with McDaniel for another year. John didn't show up on the market. Everybody speculating that about everything, right? People are speculating, oh, it's the remember how yesterday we was talking about Harbaugh's agent said, oh, seven teams have already contacted us within 45 minutes. And there was only six vacancies. And it was saying like, who, who was the team that still has a coach? Maybe it's Buffalo. If they lose that Sean McDermott will be gone and that they will go after John Harbaugh. So everybody's speculating the John Harbaugh thing. But there you go. There's a seventh vacancy now as a fifth coach is let go from the end of the regular season till now. Remember with the giants and Titans having interim positions, those are the two extra ones. So seven, we are now one shy of a quarter of the league having a head coaching vacancy. We

15:44also know that Todd Bulls is staying per Todd Bulls in Tampa Bay. There will not be a move in Tampa Bay for those speculated there might be there off as a coordinator out though. Jonathan Grizard that came down this morning. Yeah, he is gone. Did you see that? I was I did the whole when when the commanders got rid of the two coordinators Kingsbury and Whit Jr. The other day, and I did the whole thing about it, instant reaction to it and saying, you know, the Kingsbury should never lost his job. We had some reported yesterday from from Jordan Schultz who put this out yesterday, like, yeah, apparently Dan Campbell, the report, excuse me, Dan Campbell, Dan Quinn reports were he didn't want to let go of either of the two of them. So it was clearly a it's him or them situation in Washington too. So maybe it's sort of similar to that in Tampa Bay. But there's the latest dolphins firing head coach Mike McDaniel out. And Mike but Daniel is all always one of those guys Kelly through the years where I said about him, you know, nerdy-ish quirky-ish guy,

16:44right? He doesn't fit the central casting Dan Campbell football coach sort of thing where it's a tough guy big guy. He was the opposite of that. And that works when you win. And I always said that as soon as things go bad for a guy like that, it tends to go bad quicker because you don't fit that central casting mode of whatever folks thinking NFL coach should look like. So that's the latest out of there. We have we get tweets of being in the book NCI 95 when his cleave on well, he was just on for a couple minutes, which we'll effort getting him back on. We'll see if that works. This is from let's see Mike gazilles duke 90 lay boule talk about the bullets. Tony Cornheuser's term for the bullets, the Washington bullets back in the 90s when he wrote for the Washington post, he says, he says they're cursed. Denny two silent letters of the only average double figures once in four years. So they traded him for a guy from Baltimore named Bubb. Then Denny gets George Michael frosted tips and averages 16.9 again. Yes. 41 last night. We do have cleave back. Cleave will do

17:46the the truncated version of this. Your favorite wild card bet this weekend is what? Sorry about that. Pulled my microphone out by accident. Yeah, I like the chargers three and a half. I think I make this number just south of a three. I just think that you've got a Patriot team as good as they played this year. Just, you know, we know about their schedule, but if you look at some of the the quarterbacks they faced, go ahead and run through those. It's actually incredible. Two games versus Josh Allen, a half a game against Lamar and that's it. Like Baker Mayfield, maybe is the next best quarterback they faced. So have not been tested at all. They face 16s and consider with a pulse between the bills twice. The Steelers, the the Falcons, maybe Tampa and Baltimore and they've won one game amongst them at three and three. ATS won one game by more than four points. Like they just haven't done anything to me from a perspective of facing good teams, facing to quarterbacks that really scares me. I think, you know, Herbert's probably the

18:48second best quarterback they faced all year and the thing with the the chargers is they're obviously poor on the offensive line, but the the the Patriot's one of the worst from a adjusted pass for standpoint in the league. So not really worried about that from that perspective. Got a really good coach obviously in Harbaugh. Got a really good defense that limits explosive plays, which we know Drake may loves. Number one, the NFL and explosive pathways. They're fourth and limiting explosive passes. So, you know, I just think it's from a matchup perspective getting north of three points here, especially with a quarterback playing his first playoff game against a veteran like Herbert. I do think, you know, that stuff does matter in the wild card ground. So give me the chargers here. I'm with you. There's lots of other reasons to in we showed your snaps against backup quarterbacks and 30th number 30 ranked EPA and worse. We put up that chart. Patriots have faced the most snap 69% I believe it was against that that so that those 61% there's the cleave chart that we showed earlier in the week. This is just great, great chart from you. This is awesome. So there there's that at the top. Also, jeez, you're point about a rookie quarterback. People wondering,

19:51is that a really a thing? Favorites with a quarterback making his first playoff start? 720 and one against the spread as favorites against the team with a quarterback with playoff experience. Okay. In the last couple of minutes we have here at CA, let's let me just leave it open energy about awards. What are you the most passionate about? What what what what what who do you think in whatever category ought to win? What's the one you're most passionate about? I don't know about most passionate. I had a Tyler Schutt took it at 211. I tweeted about mid November. So that's gone long gone. I did hedge out with ethnic no one. So I'm okay there. I made some money. I'm happy with I don't know. I think, you know, I'm a Drake may stand I guess from a MVP standpoint, but I understand the staffer people. I don't like the lifetime achievement award, but you know, is what it is. It got a lot of friends in the media. I think the coach of the year is fascinating. I think Liam Cohen is getting completely short, short changed. I mean, like the improvement that they've made both offensively and defensively, look what he's done with Trevor Lawrence has been incredible. I mean, this is a top five offense right now. And people are talking about running

20:56Lawrence on the town last last year in just, you know, I think Ravel, you know, excellent coach, but it's clearly a schedule plus Drake may to me that is really causing them to, you know, to get the number two C. I think Cohen has been more impactful and more hands-on with a guy like Lawrence and you know, Ben Johnson's great and Mike McDonald's excellent. Like I had him last year at him and O'Connell heading in the last year. So it's probably a year too early, but you know, that defense was already really good. I mean, it was a top 10 defense heading into the season. So as great as they've been and playing in a tough, tough division like that, I just think that Liam Cohen just been a notch above the rest. I think there's value there. I don't know if they'll win it, but I do think he deserves it slightly above those meals on the guys. Yeah, it's going to be a totally splintered vote, I think. So who knows? Maybe a Cohen? Maybe Ben Johnson? Who knows? Liam Cohen, absolutely deserving as are so many of these guys. T.A., I hope it works out. We get you on the Megapod next week, man. Sorry about the the truncated version today.

21:59Appreciate your time. That's my fault. That's my fault. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys. Cleve T.A. on Twitter, by the way, C-L-E-V-T-A, and you can check them out. All this stuff at cleveanalytics.com as well. We'll come back to Murray on the college football semi's big getting tonight on a numbers game at Visa. These sports betting network. Numbers game on FESEN. These sports betting network back on a numbers game live from Circa Resort, Casino downtown Las Vegas, Gil Alexander, Kelly Billin. It doesn't get any better than this. Miami Ole Miss tonight, Oregon, Indiana, tomorrow, and then double header NFL, wild car weekend, Saturday, triple header Sunday, and then I'm kind of with Will Hill. The Monday standalone is a little weird. I kind of preferred the three and three, but okay. I like it. Yeah. More days of football. I like it on Monday. That's for sure. I think it's, I find it a little weird to redo it all the college football, like outside of Saturday as we joked about. Be Tyler Shoemaker too. Yeah. So great. Yeah. Yeah. I want to put them on a Friday.

23:00I know the Thursday and Friday, and we'll play the championship on a Monday. That's what we do. We get tweet speed in the book. Jason H. 11 Kelly, you better be careful. That's a slippery slope. You're walking with that. It's almost as good as about IGA. Don't go Ben Wilson on us. Thank you, Jason. Thank you for doing my bidding. Todd at Canarcy Bourne 65. If Miami Beach Ole Miss will Paul Feinbaum tell everybody that unless the SEC is playing other SEC teams, it just doesn't mean as much. Yeah, you might. Three Jack H. 3131. Oh, it's going to be a fun tennis season if when Gil has to root against IGA. What happens if she wins the first two? He'll create an internal struggle with Gil versus himself. Versus he says versus himself. Yeah. No, I mean, hey, if she wins, listen, let's start with one. She gets the Aussie open. That's a career slam. And then if she gets the French, then it's like, you know what? At that point, she can win as many. I'm a little disappointed at Jason H. 11, actually, because that is the I don't know that there's been a more easy go to for me. And are we sure since we started every time with an EGUS Fiat question about whatever

24:04tournament she's played grants lab. I do adore Brian M with the Dolphins current cap space situation. I'll take one million dollars and coach the team next year and be the scapegoat. Get them a top five pick beyond my merry way. You two can rock paper scissors best of three for picking OC and DC. Okay. Well, I want to be OC then. That's like Dolphins fan. Ladies and gentlemen, he went to the University of Miami. So let's just establish that in advance. He is also objective about college football at the same time. I know that's difficult to hold two thoughts in our heads at the same time. We're going to try to do this with that with that as a preamble to this. It's Chris Velika. The bear from Fox Sports. You can follow him on Twitter at Chris Velika. That's F-A-L-L-I-C-A. He is the host of about 75 different versions of the bear bets podcast. I believe that's correct. Yes. Yeah, that is correct in that. These 75th of those versions was recorded yesterday with Bruce Filman. Bruce and the bear kind of preview these couple games. I actually had a tennis thought as well. And I ran it by you. And I think we were on opposite sides here. There were some end of

25:09year ranks over under totals. And I thought Coco Gough, I guess under three and a half would be the correct description for it. She didn't hold off Amanda and this is Mova, Mira, Andreva, Elena Rabakina. They're a bunch of players and I think it wound up being ranked third. Wait, is it assuming it's going to be the underover? You said over three and a half. Meaning she would be four or worse. Yeah, that's what I meant. I'm confusing myself. I don't. She's going to finish third with that first serve struggles and such. She got to get the serve worked out. That's for sure. But if she can, three is definitely where she ought to be. I think the best of all those overunders was Pagula under six and a half. She's so consistent that I think she'll end up in the top six. We're talking about final WTA rankings at the end of the year for those wondering what the hell we're talking. I'm getting so angry. I can't find them again. Were there draft Kings? I pulled them from last week.

26:11They were draft Kings. Yeah, they were draft Kings. I know a lot of silly. Maybe they pulled them down as it season started. Shout out to draft Kings for posting those. That's awesome that they do that. May they put up more tennis markets like that. It's something that we don't really look at rankings as better as necessarily. Okay, let's talk to college football. Let's talk about tonight. Let's talk. Let's talk. Hi, Amy Ole Miss. We should just go two seconds and be like, let's go. We start their clippers with 30 seconds left. I should be like, oh, college football tonight. What do you have? So my Emmy and Ole Miss canes are a three point favorite extra juice here at circa with the total at 52. I saw something. Don't have the beginning of the show. I just gave my thoughts in about five minutes on this game. One of the things I brought up was your canes, if I may say since Chris went to Miami. They lost twice this year. They lost the Louisville. They lost SMU. I mentioned Louisville. They turned the ball over four times. SMU. It was a flag fest. Everything seemed to go against the canes. There was a lot. There was a few plays where like the refs picked up the flag even on one of them where it could have gone

27:16against Ole Miss. No calls on others. So it was everything was sort of against the canes. But that was an ACC game. And I saw a social media clip of you on one of the Bear Betts podcasts, which I thought was pretty interesting about the way your theory or at least something you observed about how refs in the ACC call the canes versus now what we're seeing in the college football playoff. Can you explain that? Yeah, if you look at Miami and their penalty totals in the regular season during their average over seven and a half penalties per game for nearly 70 yards and penalty six to five yards per game in penalties. If you look at the two college football playoff games, they have been flagged four times for a total of 30 yards. So it's almost like you know the analogy when you get out of the NCAA and when you get out of conference play like the NCAA tournament comes and officials don't necessarily aren't necessarily familiar with you and looking for things that you may see weekend and week out by covering teams. You're like you get out of conference play and like teams aren't used to seeing you.

28:17That I think kind of matters and that has been a massive advantage for Miami but it's an older team and they haven't been flagged which is good. The officials have let them play for the most part in all of these games. I mean there were a couple of flag vests but the fact that Miami has not been shooting themselves in the foot with stupid penalties. You mentioned the Louisville the SMU game. People that were kind of brought up the SMU game is kind of a comparison for what Ole Miss could do tonight. Yes, I get it but if you look at the numbers in that game, Miami had the ball for 37 and a half minutes. They shut SMU down. It was just the 12 penalties including that late personal foul that they called that would have entered the game and a couple of turnovers. So I think if Miami were to get that type of play tonight, I think they'd feel pretty good about that but yes big 10 officials tonight and my colleague, Jess Schwartz has said big 10 officials do not like to call holding penalties so maybe again we may see a flag free type of game but if

29:20they don't like to call holding penalties that might hinder Miami's best weapon in this game, their defensive line. That's a I love the that's such an interesting analysis on on conference referees being familiar conference officials being familiar with maybe a tendency that they look for to throw a flag and now non the conference that you're not in in other words non-conference that you're in officials not necessarily looking for that kind of stuff. So okay, I'm going to assume you're on the canes. You can further break down. We want totals 52. I'm curious to the canes lean lean on Fletcher tonight in a way that perhaps you lean under break this whole thing down for us. Yeah, I played I played two things that I did not play aside because I have so many so much liability to exposure to Miami futures that if anything, I'm going to take some more muscle three and a half in the game is a bit of a hedge but I did play two things. I did play under in the circuit Friday football invitation and I do play that for real as well and I played

30:21Miami over 144 and a half Russian yards for the game. Those were the two things that I played tonight. I do think you're going to see Miami utilize the the best defense is your offense and get Fletcher involved, get Pringle involved, get Marty Brown involved, get all those backs involved to try and help the difference by keeping Ole Miss off the field. And I think they have the ability to do that. The Ole Miss defense has given up big chunks of yardage at time to see other defense backs really don't tackle very well. So I do think we have the potential to see a lower scoring game, certainly in comparison with what Ole Miss has been used to. But this is like anything can happen. I've chambles breaks contain and Miami's ends can't contain the edge. He might be able to make some plays and he's done that all year. He's certainly capable. He got some great wide receivers and Lacey's a great back. So I think both teams play their best game. I do think Miami wins and I've caught some slack for that. And basically what it means

31:26to both these play their best games that means Miami's offensive and defensive lines are kind of dominating the game and everything's branching out from that. So that's the way I view one other thing that I kind of kicked around yesterday was, is this maybe the game that the Ole Miss coaching Carousel, drama, circus, whatever you want to call it? Kind of weird as it's ugly head. The first two teams that Ole Miss played in the playoff were Tulane and Georgia, two teams that they played in the regular season. They obviously had game plans in place, scouting reports fully broken down and during the playoff and these games were kind of just about maybe doing a couple of tweaks here or there. I know the staffs you're a little bit bigger now but now you're starting from scratch and you have five days worth of time to scout and do a full game plan and a game breakdown with a little bit of a skeleton staff for Miami which can beat you in a bunch of different ways and show a ton of different defensive looks. So I wonder if maybe this is the game where the

32:29fact that Ole Miss might not have its full staff kind of affects their prep and maybe we see that on the field tonight. Yeah, I've measured it a couple of times already on the show today. I'm with you. I think at some point it has to and I know you're I know your buddies with Lane but it's like dude you can't like agree to have the coaches there and then like oh wait a minute we won they won they forgot they let me take these two guys back and I was joking earlier it's like if Ole Miss wins this is going to take vice back now after you know the next game so I don't know more with Chris Vellika the bear at Chris Vellika on Twitter on the other side we'll talk about Indiana Oregon and he mentioned he's in this Friday invitation we've got to get an update on that next on a numbers game at Visa these sports betting network. Chris Vellika caught enough to join us once again I buried the headline with Chris Chris you are in Arizona right now for the Fiesta Bowl. Yes yeah I mean I had a great time last night

33:31catching up with some old friends and colleagues from Miami it was a I haven't I haven't gone out like that in a while so you kind of got to take me a little while to wake up this morning but I mean it was great yeah hopefully the weather is going to clear up it for the obvious for the games indoors but tailgating festivities might be a little bit hampered by the the rain currently well we can't have that before we get before we get to your your thoughts on college football again you real quick you you brought up you threw in the Friday football invitational the humans invitational as we like to call it around here where are you right now where do you stand in that I'm second I'm second and I don't think I'm going to be able to catch Chris Messera he had an unbelievable week so it looks like Chris Messera will be your 2025 26 circa Friday football invocation but I am second I have the under tonight in Miami Ole Miss and we'll see what happens I feel good about my ability to finish second which will be good being that I won the inaugural one I finished tied for third last year and if I finish second this year it's like the career podium

34:35grand slam it is of the humans invitational how the he's right juggernaut all right how about some hypothetical before we get to your thoughts on Oregon Indiana specifically about some hypothetical college football national championship match up lines from draft kings your Indiana if it's Indiana Miami Indiana is a five and a half point favorite who's Indiana Ole Miss Indiana is an eight and a half point favorite wow if it's Miami Oregon Oregon's favorite by one and a half and if it's Ole Miss Oregon the ducks are favorite by four and a half those look about right to or is there one or two that stand out as wait a minute what's that Miami Indiana Miami seems a little bit high especially knowing that the game is going to be played on Miami's home field and you would expect that and I know Indiana fans will travel for the penultimate moment with their programs history but but that does seem a little bit high with my with like it was the same thing we talked about for between my all meant this Miami Ohio State like the way Ohio State was kind of

35:37dominated up front and they really had face to front like other than Indiana it'll be kind of the same thing you look at it you look at Indiana and look at the defenses that they face and you look at how Iowa State really had a ton of success I think that would be the same thing but the matchup that I really would like like if it's Miami Oregon and it's Oregon minus one and a half like I would be pushing all in on Miami like if you look at Oregon they're down one of their better running backs Davis and now with a shoulder injury you look at their their their travel Miami for the first round tech for to play Texas tech flyback flyback again this week to Atlanta the face in the afternoon when flyback and you'll find all of that cross country again to Miami flyback three three like cross country diagonal trips in a few weeks that that's a that's a toll and again on Miami's home field that you would assume it would be a majority of Miami fans it would feel like one of those old orange ball games where Miami was playing the big

36:40big team if it's Miami Oregon I would be very surprised if Miami were to lose that game but I would I would lay the points with if it's all miss versus one of those two teams I would I would be on the side there interesting because I as I said I'm an Indiana guy in terms of my bet my bet position to win it all but as I look at Ole Miss Indiana I think to myself yeah but if Ole miss beats Georgia and Miami back to back are they really going to be eight and a half point dogs against India I think you'd get I think you would get Ole Miss play and it would be the rare instance of it with a line actually comes down and you could probably you might be able to get Indiana by the seven to half yeah that line might move a point in our favor so it might be one of those rare instances where if you like the favorite wait and see the get see the game gets back down all right what about tomorrow night the ducks and the Hoosiers with Indiana favorite by three and a half down to three and a half okay because I saw it was I think four and a half at times well

37:41it's certain anyway it's three and a half okay yep that that that that fits because if you look at the first meeting Oregon wins a seven and a half point favorite on their home field so I mean it's still that's kind of a seven or eight point adjustment from what we've seen in the regular season the again the two things I played in this game I played under under 48 and a half where whatever it is now and I played on draft Kings they had a prop will either team score 30 plus points in the game and I bet the no I think if you look at both of these defenses in the first meeting Indiana dominated them in the second half Oregon couldn't sustain any drives and at the same time you only reason Indiana reached 30 points in that game was because of a couple of a second half intersections by by Dante more they finally get them to 30 so I think you're gonna see a kind of a lower scoring defensive minded game I will say Oregon in that first meeting

38:44at home why it had a massive game for Indiana he is now out even daily is now out so I wonder if this is maybe a game where Indiana's front against a good Oregon offensive line obviously down it back but they still have Wellington they're good but I always wonder in Indian games like this it really matches would you rather be the team that won the first meeting or the team that lost the first meeting I think you'd rather be the team that lost the first meeting only because I think you can find more areas to potentially improve on or do something different or say hey if we only would have done this I think that makes more sense so we will see about my colleagues who's felt been disagreed with me on that yesterday so different two different ways of looking at it and the one other point that I brought up and again it always feels like there's an end but associated with Indiana which is totally wrong because they've done absolutely nothing wrong this year but I think there might be a little bit of an overreaction to like oh my god Indiana

39:49dominated Alabama look look at that it's probably because of a little bit of what Kirk Signetti said like because it says our jersey says Indiana I agree yeah LSU or Texas or Michigan but look at the Alabama team we're talking about this was a team we were talking about the last month of the year but they haven't been playing great football they they got dominated in that same fashion by Florida state in the opening game of the year so I think we shouldn't be surprised at the way that game went last week and don't necessarily move Indiana up any more off of that and if you had Indiana rated as high as you did and you think they're going to blow out Oregon or beat Oregon that's totally fine but don't readjust your power ratings based on what they did against the Alabama team it's kind of proven throughout the course of the year that a team that really has a bunch of flaws last thing and this this requires some evaluation talent evaluation from you but I'm curious about Fernando Mendoza I just saw a scouting report for somebody and I

40:49really wish I could remember who it was but they they played the game and I'm forgetting the name was but they're they're knock on Mendoza was the Highsment trophy winner was at the pro level talking about will he be the first pick in the draft their knock was they said everybody gives Mendoza credit for getting the ball out quickly making quick decisions but he read it as he actually doesn't read the field well and so he knows that he doesn't read the field well and so he gets it out quickly because of that do you agree with that would you pick him first in the draft well I do I do kind of but it's not agree with it but it's not really a knock I mean well it isn't it isn't the sense that you got to read defenses fully in the NFL right that's right yeah it's it's it's not a knock now but it could be in a moving for like be a lot of these college offense with the RPO you're you're looking one side of the field first read get it out but your receivers make the play and that could be a problem at the next level like I don't I

41:51don't necessarily think he is like again you have to think back to what you're talking about with the number one pick in terms of quarterback quality like is he like that historical quality of I don't think he is I don't think Dante more is either and I think Dante more is probably going to come back to Oregon and I think he should you and I think you're in the minority with the way we look at quarterbacks going going this high I always like building your team with with a defensive standout pass rusher linebacker quarter all big offensive lineman like I just don't think if you're the Raiders and you're picking number one and you absolutely of course you can do anything else but but take one of those quarterbacks number one now gris enjoy the game thank you so much man you will we will we will try let's have the sun comes out and we can have some some fun three game and hopefully we got a good get there Chris gets quiet when Miami plays he gets in that he gets in that mode Chris Velika everybody the bear from Fox Sports appreciate him hanging with us twice we'll come back we cap all the bets next