Best of A Numbers Game | January 27, 2026

0:00The numbers told the story of Alex now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Gill. I like Xander gone V sent good Tuesday morning to you. There's a numbers game to V sent these sports betting that were V sent dot com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV and of course series X of channel 158 it's Gill. Alexander and that right there to my left to your right is not Kelly Bidland. It's Danny Higgins it for Kelly Bidland. Kelly Yeah. He saw he saw snow filled football over the weekend. It was too much for his head to take and now he's got a migraine. Poor kid. I know. Shouldn't make jokes about such a thing. Galey. It's not even funny as a joke. It's my mom would say. Poor Kelly has a migraine. He's plagued by migraines and this morning he woke up. I guess it was it was hitting him yesterday. I think as I hit him yesterday. When I talked to him this morning. I spoke to him on the phone. He didn't sound too great to be honest. Yeah. And then yeah, when I when I talked to him this morning, I texted him around 445 because you usually you know finishing up some things for the show. And he was just like I can't do it.

1:01Well, little gracey used to have migraines. I just have a carry around like the house from place to place. It's so debilitating. I was unwilling to do that for Kelly despite the 100 pound weight loss. So we hope that he we hope that he feels better quickly. These things tend to take their time. Yes. They're on their own schedule. So we'll try to do well in Kelly's dead Jake Han on hockey. Coming up a little later on this hour, Maddie Cox talking college hoops with us after that Arizona BYU game last night. Did you see that? Unbelievable. Arizona just dominating that basketball game. And if you were I was watching tennis was kind of casually following the score. So I still double digit lead. I was still double digitally. Then all of a sudden what is happening? Refs induced closeness or were bad calls on both ends. I would say I would say and for me per I would take both ends. Yeah, like I'm so good back for. Yeah, because I was watching a Duke game earlier and they absolutely just Molly walked a little there. But then yeah, that BYU Arizona game was great. But you said Molly Wop to start the show.

2:02Wait, nice job. Drew did say a little later on for the deep die podcast NBC sports the edge NBC sports bet the edge will talk NBA and NFL obviously Super Bowl 60 with Drew Ski. And then a couple who first of all Jeff Erickson a little later on to Ben Wilson joining us later talk tennis can't wait to talk with a bet about that. And then a couple sort of special things today. Here's what we're going to do in just about 15 minutes. 10 to 15 minutes somewhere in that pocket. The first iteration Danny Higgins. We never did this before I came back from vacation after Super Bowl. We're going to do the first iteration of the NCAA championship basketball formula today on the show. First hour who qualifies who's only outside looking in will do all that will go through the criteria. We're a sweet 16 portion of this has been tested the last three years. But we're still going to talk about that as well. We will get to the NCAA basketball formula. And then yesterday we talked about this on the show and then we put out the video of this. And I will tell you that first of all Buddhist man was kill me.

3:06It was cracking me up on Twitter. There is nothing quite as sensitive as New England Patriots fans is learning. Yeah, so we did this. We did this segment on the air because I'm just being honest. I thought about Sunday, right? I've when they were going to the to the champ to the Super Bowl. I thought, okay, like where does this team rank in terms of, you know, the weaker teams to ever make a Super Bowl. Hey, that you made a Super Bowl good on you. There have been bad teams that have made Super Bowl. There have been not so awesome teams that are one Super Bowl before. But I was just curious, right? And I, I questioned I had the audacity, daddy, the boxing, the Hutzpah to ask Aaron Schatz, where is it? You know, am I right about this? So now people are, people are mad at me for asking the question. And Aaron Schatz said, I don't know like 16th worst, something like that out of the 96 that he's dragged 120 total Super bowls. But Aaron only goes back to 1978. So that's 96 Super Bowl teams. So today Aaron Schatz is going to make a special appearance on the show. To tell us where they actually rank. I don't know. Maybe it's not 16. Maybe he maybe he did a deeper dive. Maybe he came. It was better. Maybe it was worse. I have no idea.

4:11I'm excited to hear. I'm excited. Aaron Schatz a little later on the show. Talk about that with us. Just to put the Patriots in context of this Super Bowl 60 where they are four and a half point dogs. 12 days from now, Danny. 12. We got some time. The other big news this morning. Did you catch this? Darian Mensa? Yes. And Duke have settled their dispute. That's it. The Duke was preventing was trying to prevent him from going into the portal. And Mensa and Duke come to an agreement that he is free to go now. It's basically the long and short of it. So Miami Miami. There he comes. Yes. I'm excited because I'm a Miami fan of Larry in the back. You know, that's. It's very exciting. You know, come back. You know, getting a guy like that should be very good. You know, going into 2027. So it should be or 2026. My apologies. But yeah, so it should be that's a big pick up for them. You know, so Mensa number five overall player DSPN's transfer rankings last year. 34 touchdown passes six picks just shy of 4,000 passing yards.

5:163973. So Miami lands kindly. Yes. With Darian Mensa. So there you go. College football. Tennis. Do we discuss tennis? Hope everybody was riding on the Alenus Vitilina pick overnight. I gave that out yesterday plus 167 versus Coco Gough. Shiching straight set easy peasy win crushed Coco late late night late night our time, but obviously day time Australia time. Actually, it was kind of evening time. Australia time. Who knows it was indoors. It was too hot to play outside. 113 degrees yesterday in Melbourne. And so we catch that on Alenus Vitilina. So by the way, this six Americans headed into the quarter finals of both the men's and women's side. We might only have one that get to the. Do I get to the semi's in either because all the Americans knocked out yesterday. So we hit on Svitalina plus 167.

6:16Is this tournament continues to be a good one for us and then today is the big day with the with a couple of the futures. Again on the on the men's side Lorenzo Musetti to win quarter number three at plus 650, but he is taking on Novak joke of it today. So the question was, do I, by the way, do I think Musetti is live is the first thing in my betting, Musetti. I'm not. I've got my plus 650. I'm just going to let that ride. Do I think that Musetti has more than a puncher's chance. I do because Musetti's numbers the reason I bet in the first place. There's a reason, right? Musetti's numbers on hard courts are spectacular. He is a right now to me a bonafide top five player in the world. The only issue is he's playing the greatest of all time here. Novak joke of it. And if you follow tennis, you don't even have to follow it to know that Novak is something just in the stratosphere. So I'm not going to back it. I'm not going to go crazy with another bet, but I'm going to hope that that third quarter bet gets in at plus 650.

7:16I expected to be a really good match day, but Novak and Lorenzo Musetti their head to head Novak nine to one nine to one. So part of that bet was also hoping that Novak something, you know, something happened to Novak, not only did nothing happen to Novak a long way. But he also had a withdrawal from Jakob Mensik in the previous round. So he's resting. So 38 years old and rested to take on Musetti today. But we shall say, man, I feel like we're live just not going to back that up with another bet. I will back up Jesse Pagula though with another bet. Jesse Pagula to win the third quarter today. She's taking on her fellow American Amanda Nisimova. So we're guaranteed one American getting through. Jesse is a short favorite. I should be a short dog pardon me. Short dog today against the Nisimova. We have her at four to one to win quarter number three. I am also backing that up with a bet on Jesse Pagula today against Amanda Nisimova at plus 106. There by the way are the current odds for the remaining six to win this whole thing and really haven't changed much.

8:21They really haven't read a sample like a remains of minus 145. We're blocking on Shviata who play today are next. Then it's a Nisimova Svitalina now in Pagula. So Coco getting bounces the only only real change there. So the two bets today getting cutting to the chase here. We have the we have the Musetti and Pagula quarter bets. Riding tonight both of those are in play. I am backing up the Pagula one with an additional bet on the match today plus 106 versus Amanda Nisimova. Jesse Pagula the reason bet in the first place. She is the most consistent player on on the women's tour. Even Arena and Ega and those girls. They have their ups and downs. But Jesse Pagula is just steady ship. So plus 106 on Pagula today against Amanda Nisimova. And then the other match. You made a five no surprise in this. I am taking the great Ega Shviata who is looking for a career slam here. Plus 110 versus Elena Rabakina. Now for those who have listened to this show for years and years and years.

9:21We have made a fortune. A bona fide fortune on Ega Shviata. This has been as consistent a thing through the history of this show as anything. Have we lost on Sviata? Yeah, here and there. But it amounts to a drop in a bucket compared to what we've won on her. Plus 110 versus Rabakina. This is not just some love of Sviata play. You see that I don't play her on an individual day by day basis. But in this particular matchup again, it comes down to numbers. And like I took a little incoming on the podcast with Drew and Zach about me being high on Musetti. My numbers on Ega hard courts are actually still the best of anybody. Six months and one year by a tick right by my much. But by, you know, a significant not negligible amount. Let's put it that way over Sabelank in the rest of the field. Elena Rabakina right up there as well. Ega as a dog. Hey, if Rabakina is on with her serve, it's going to be it's going to be a tough one. No doubt about it because Rabakina is a slam winner at Wimbledon.

10:24She's great on fast surfaces, doesn't really stand a chance against Ega on clay. But in this particular case, I'll quote Andy Rodic on his podcast. Ega has a chance to smother her here. Elena does not like to necessarily be rushed on shots. Ega's got to use her athleticism. So Ega Sviata plus 110 versus Elena, Rabakina. So it's Fiatek and Pagula with the individual place today on the heels of both the Rabakina, excuse me, on the Svitalina big dog winner last night, the Musetti dog winner the previous day. And then the individual matches today, Pagula and Sviata, respectively against Anisimova and Rabakina. And yes, I was up till two in the morning again watching this stuff. So as much as I love this tournament as great as it is, Malika Andrews doing it now, it's a great, it's awesome on ESPN when they do show these things live. I kind of can't wait till it's over too, so I don't stay up till two in the morning, get some sleep and watch the bats stay up late. Hey, man, it shows you though with bets, right? As long as it's profitable, you're willing to sleep, who cares?

11:27Staying up for those Hawaii games. I mean, they were a struggle, but when you're winning it's fine. All right, we'll come back. First iteration of the college basketball formula coming up, who qualified, tried and true through the decades. The early look at it here in mid-January, mid to late January, as we approach February coming up on a numbers game. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real, mindset alone doesn't get bets home, pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now, so can you. Visa programs you access to the same real time insights the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with Visa and Pro. A numbers game on fee set, these sports betting network.

12:30We have folks on Twitter who are shining in on better lines from Ted Knight, you're in catty check. You have to give you besides just that, eh? I want a fresco. Far away for it, I can't read yours. I'm sorry, I can't read that on there. Bob Apple says in New Line for Danny, if the whole sports thing doesn't work out for it's, uh, well, the world needs ditch diggers too, Danny. Was another one from that. By the way, are we doing that promo here or the next one? Okay, I think it's. We'll do that. That's right. Drew Denson joins us once again, courtesy of the progressive guest line from his home in Long Beach, California. I'm at least some time for the NBA at the end during case you have any picks. Well, let's get that out of the way real quick. You have any picks in the NBA tonight. Uh, two mega chocuons in my book laid six or 10 and a half and clippers eight now today. You sound very excited. Sixers and full strength. I had not to do the NBA has been. It has been a struggle bus really this month of January, not just not from a betting standpoint, necessarily, but just from like, uh, what's going on here, guys?

13:33Like what are we doing? Um, it's, uh, you know, it takes the third banana in January in general because of the playoffs and the Australian open for me, but, um, this year feels especially, um, especially rough. Okay, that's honest. We'll leave it at that for that. So two chalky plays from Drew today in the NBA. Let's get to football. How did your, I know you've been on a great run in the NFL. How did your championship go? Oh, yeah, I know it came to a. It came to a screeching halt. It all went down in flames. Yes. Uh, I had a lot of, um, a lot of stuff tied to it over in the first game. So seeing the weather, uh, at the kickoff was like, uh-oh, and then out of half time was like, oh, no. Oh, no. Yeah. And that, uh, so that went down quite poorly. Um, I had some Patriots to win the UFC, but it wasn't that spectacular of a price at all. Um, and actually just kind of wiped out, you know, helped balance out some of the other losers I had in the AFC futures pool.

14:35Um, in the NFC, I was solo-staked Rams in the for the cerebral ball. I was solo-staked Rams. So I'm pretty disappointed. They weren't able to find a way to win there. Um, it's good game, though. Um, it was, uh, uh, you know, it, it was a matter of when, not if, uh, the special teams was going to break their back. Yeah. And, uh, that month, second, month, punt, uh, that was. As he's falling as he's falling to the ground Xavier Smith. It's like, oh, God. Here we go. It's brutal. But that was the one thing we knew, right? That was the one difference in those teams. That Seattle special teams was very good. Rams were very bad. And, and that's what ended up manifesting. Uh, as we go to Super Bowl 60 now, where the Seahawks four and a half point favorites. We haven't had a chance to talk about this yet. Four and a half point favorites currently. We'll see where this goes in the next 12 days versus the Patriots totals at 46. What's your first reaction to the macro lines here and how you plan to bet them if you haven't already?

15:35Uh, I am into Seahawks small at four and a half minus one and a seven. Um, I think yesterday's movement was a little bit of just sort of rebalancing after, you know, uh, the look ahead was kind of in the three and a half range and it opens five. And, you know, there's, so there's a little bit of gravity towards the look ahead there. A little bit of, you know, people who have Seahawks, uh, taking some risk off betting Patriots. I saw yesterday. Um, I don't think any of that was especially sharp action. People think the Patriots are good because they're very not good. I can't wait to hear Schatz's segment. Me too. I can't wait to hear it. I mean, my, like, if they're not bottom five of the, at least in the modern era, I'll be pretty surprised. Um, you know, that, you know, he is, he does as good a job as anyone in the sport. Uh, in data, space, I would say, I'm kind of correctly correctly reflecting opponent strength. Um, and it's pretty clear when the Patriots were playing, you know, the, the little sisters of the poor,

16:36like the jets in the dolphins at the end of the year and looked amazing. Um, that was not really as an indication of their true strength. And then when they played, uh, some good defenses in the playoffs and looked very pedestrian. I think that's it, that, that, that time telling you they are who they are. Um, I think Drake May is a great quarterback. He will have a long, fruitful career in the NFL with his talent. Um, but this is now a step up from two really, really tough tests, really three really tough tests against the chargers, Texans and, uh, and Broncos. Now you draw the Seahawks who not only are as good if not a better defense. I would argue better. Um, and, you know, have a complimentary offense who can play. Um, this, this looks like a mismatched me on paper. Patriots surely could win. Things could break in their direction favorably. Um, but I think this is, uh, this is pretty clearly going to be a, uh, you know, one sided outcome. And, uh, I think Seahawks are going to be able to play with the lead and now really make things painful for the Patriots because Patriots are going to have a difficult time running the ball with their running backs.

17:41I think, um, they're certainly scope for Drake made it get going on the ground against the Seattle defense. But I would be pretty blown away if the running back room has a successful day on Sunday. Um, and then I would think that, uh, um, you know, the, the quality of play and efficiency from San Donald. You saw in the NFC championship game, uh, to me was born out of growth. Um, he was able to make some very impressive plays. I thought out of structure to not just like make successful plays, but, uh, to avoid the, the catastrophic negative plays, which were always kind of the hallmark of his game. Um, if you could create pressure and, you know, particularly interior pressure on him. Um, you know, he intended to make really terrible decisions and we saw really good decisions on Sunday out of him, which I think is something that carries forward into this contest. And, um, you know, I'm excited for the matchup of Jason versus, uh, Christian Gonzalez. That's, uh, that's going to be quite awesome, but JSN has the advantage there for me. Uh, I think that, um, Seahawks playing with a lead in the second half, uh, can put this game away pretty, pretty comfortably because they're, their D line.

18:46Um, the number one, they're amazing in the runstop, but, uh, but they're a little bit underrated in their ability to generate interior pressure. Um, I think, uh, uh, you know, the, the duo of defensive tackles going up against this interior past part of pro from the Patriots looks like a serious problem. Um, I think, uh, uh, a world where Seahawks are losing in this game. Liveovers, live Seahawks to come back and win feel very live, you know, very real to me. Um, and, uh, but, you know, ultimately my, my gut says this is going to be Seahawks wire to wire type of deal. And, uh, I think, uh, I think they're the best team. They were the best team in football this year. Um, they proved it right. They proven it. Yeah. Hey, Patriots were the best of the juniorversity in the AFC. So they got that going for him. How do you, I know you're not now, our buddy Rufus P body, of course, has made a cottage industry, uh, exploiting NFL props for super balls. When, when he first came to public attention some 25 years ago, it was for this.

19:46Uh, he'll be on the Megapod next week, as he always does before the Super Bowl. So I don't know if you do stuff quite as, um, detailed as he does. But how do you approach Super Bowl props? Do you have something in mind before you jump in? Is it always the same things you're interested in? How, how does it apply to this matchup? Yeah. So my prop strategy for the Super Bowl is pretty straightforward. I find one thing that sounds really good to talk about on all the media appearances I do. And that thing loses. Try to true. That's fantastic. I honestly like in more seriousness though, like the prop to me, the prop handicapping space has gotten more sophisticated by the year. And really this last four years, like it is run by players who know, you know, very clearly what the openers ought to be. Yeah. Have a clear edge when they start to see, you know, the, the pools mature. Um, and if you're not doing that regularly from week one to week 18, I don't know why you think you can jump it in the Super Bowl and beat it.

20:50It's kind of this completely agree with this. Yes. I'm sorry. It's kind of the same thing as like, um, like imagine that you just watch college basketball. But don't bet it for from, from November to, you know, March 15th. It's right. Like you're going to, you're going to spin up a model that's going to beat the college basketball market and March madness. No, no, you're not. You're not going to do it specifically, right? Yeah. Well, when I'm just saying, like, like, you know, it's, it's sort of the same thing. Like, you know, if you're not betting, uh, if you're not betting the clay swing through Europe and you decide, hey, you know what? I'm going to, I'm going to make fairs for the French open. Guess what? You're going to get your clock clock. Like, it's just, you, you're not going to be able to step into, you know, mature marketplace with this many sophisticated participants and do well. If you don't do it regularly, in my opinion. And so I tend not to, but that said, you know, a lot of fun people call and say, hey, we want you to, to do an appearance, talk about Super Bowl. What's the prop you really like? And, you know, find something that sounds good. Like, like, oh, here's a great prop. Uh, Drake May pass attempts is set at 30 and a half.

21:53Well, the Patriots, I think, are going to come in with a game plan that's going to be pretty pass heavy focus because I don't think they're going to try to test the strength of the Seattle defense. So, you know, by running the ball 50 times. Um, so it's, it's going to be, you know, a lot of short stuff, a lot of shots from Drake May early in this contest. And then, you know, the market says they're probably going to be losing in the second half of this game, which means they're just going to have to throw their way back into it. If they're going to want to have a chance to win. So, uh, Drake May likely to land more like about 35 pass attempts than 31 in my opinion. So I'm going to take the over on Drake May pass attempts. So this is, I'm, we have to get, we have two weeks to talk about this. But I'm so glad that we have this moment to have this perspective because I think it needs to be stated because, you know, you and I are betting tennis. And it's, it's a profitable thing. And it's just awesome thing. And then the Super Bowl comes around and people are like, oh, we got to talk about every prop on the board. And I'm just thinking to myself exactly what you are, which is, why do you think now like all of a sudden this is going to be what you're going to make money on? It's just, it's just a, it's a fascinating thing because it's there.

22:53We love betting it. And so I appreciate that perspective. Let's put it that way. Yeah. My, my actual, my actual prop strategy is wait for my friend to telegram me about what the, uh, rehearsal time was for the anthem. That's that. I am all about, which we will get to as the weeks progress here in the next couple of weeks. Thank you, Drew. Appreciate it. All right. That's like us. Come back with Jeff Eric, except for Roto, why are next? A numbers game on feces these sports betting network. They don't forget Omaha states. Look at that. Omaha. Not the stakes this time. We got the chicken up. Football meets flavor. Nonetheless, the recent and Omaha steaks. The official sponsor of tailgating it right now when you spend the $129 you can score two pounds of fully cooked chicken wings. Two pounds, Danny. Two pounds, Danny, close 50% off site wide at OmahaStakes.com slash VS I am. Don't wait, spend $129, get two pounds of wings and save 50% site wide on stakes

23:53and more at OmahaStakes.com slash VS I am that's OmahaStakes.com slash VS in minimum purchase required seasite for details. Can I give a shout out once again to that tweet we had earlier? I know we put Buddhist in the tweet or Hall of Fame, but a Hall of Fame tweet specifically in the in the wing that has just specific tweets from a Brosek 1870 Steven who earlier went Schradinger's cat on us, which was just awesome about waiting for the bet result the previous night again. Cat in a box, you don't know if it's dead or alive until it's observed. The Schradinger cat experiment from 1935. Like apparently one day Schradinger woke up in 1935. He's like, you know what? I don't know if this cat's alive. It's in the box until I see it. It's not proven. And so I did that with the Spitalina bet last night until you see the result. You don't know if it's a winner or a loser. Steve the proxy, my wife suffers from migraines enough that I had to find a solution. There's a viral TikTok solution that sounds really stupid, but works.

24:54McDonald's Coke and French fries. Something about the salt and caffeine drinking black coffee also works. Kelly, I hope you're listening, man. Kelly Billin who's out today because he's got a migraine headache. He is plagued by migraines. Coke and French fries. McDonald's Kelly is an excuse to have a Coke and French fries. You've already lost 105 pounds. Come on, man. Might have to stop, you know, maybe maybe stop me getting my own and then drop some off of him on the way home. He's going to say, hey, baby, I think these will work. Meltzer like Seltzer, Mark Meltzer and Meltzer Vegas. He does this thing where he posts R&B concerts and hip-hop concerts all over Las Vegas. He goes, well, I know where Gilles is going to be this summer, right? His latest one is Neo and ACON, apparently. I'm in a concert Friday, August 14th. So it's common as looks like Gilles has a busy summer. Three Jack H. 3131, Gilles. How come Drew gets a second segment after poo-pooing the great Lorenzo Musetti? After he wins tonight, I fully expect a nice bottle of what is this? BB Gratz Gratz Testimata 2020.

25:56Not 2021 at my doorstep. Whilst I celebrate the plus 750, I picked up. Yeah, so let me get, let's just review again what we're just talking about Musetti. So I have Musetti, as I gave out before the tournament, to win Q3 at plus 650. Three Jack H. 3131 has him at plus 750. I don't have a bet on Musetti today against Novak Djokovic, though I think there's value in the Musetti price. Still leaving today, but I'm just not gonna double up on him because I have, as Drew pointed out, because we know how Novak Djokovic magic works. We can be up two sets and it's like, oh God, here comes the worst. Because Novak Djokovic is just beyond description, even at this age of 38. So we'll see, hopefully it gets home. MH Stuckart says, oh, that's a peach hunt. That's from Caddy Shack. But that's not a 10-night line to Caddy Shack, is it? Let's see, home skillet. So this is what Gillie Kelly meant when they said to wait for the Seahawks money line to move. What is he referring to here? Oh, yes, exactly.

26:57A circus for those who missed it. Now we don't really do this on this show because, you know, typically other shows in sort of sports betting media, they love talking about these big bets that are made. A lot of bets are made offshore that exceed. But here with the Super Bowl, so this is exactly what we're talking about. So Covers reported this and Circa here, everybody knows. There was a bet place yesterday, $1.1 million on the Patriots money line at plus 188, to win $2 million. There weren't any $1 million bets placed last year on the Super Bowl. So shout out to Covers for that last detail there that there weren't any last year. But yes, that's exactly what we're talking about with muted money lines in the Super Bowl. People make huge bets. People tend to bet the money line as opposed to taking the points on the dog. And so yes, you will get an artificially muted money line on the favorite often. Nemesis and Forza, am I the only one not feeling Malika Andrews tennis coverage was not a fan of her NBA coverage either?

27:57Please, no Malika, hey, we love Malika. She has larynjitis of some kind right now, so her voice is not projecting. So a little grace for Malika. Let's talk some Super Bowl 60 once again. Jeff Erickson joins us now courtesy of the Progressive Guest Line you can follow on Twitter at Jeff, that's with the J underscore Erickson. He is a founder of Roto Wire, which Jeff gives me a whole bunch of glee because not only can we talk Super Bowl 60 here, but you've agreed to talk some major league baseball season win totals in the next segment as well. Are we doing that? Yeah, absolutely. I just jot it down four that I like. So we'll go for it there. I look forward to it. Let's save those. Let's get to Super Bowl 60. Now, forgive me because Drew and I drew Netsuk and I, we just talked about the case for folks. This does not apply to you because you're betting props all year. But for folks who never bet this kind of stuff, right? And who don't have numbers, don't follow it. To just sort of show up for the Super Bowl like, oh, I'm going to fire on 30 Super Bowl props. Just sort of a yellow caution light on folks

28:58like that yellow blinking light. You, however, you're a guy who delves in this all year long and you have as you look at Super Bowl 60 before we get to your four props, what do you think about the line itself? I guess I should ask you about that too. Seahawks minus four and a half totals, 46. What's your instinct on that? I wish I could have jumped in at minus three and a half like everybody else when it first opened. I do think that I like the Seattle side here. I'm nervous about the Pat's ability to protect Drake May. I'm more sold and persuaded that I like betting the under 46. And I like that it's 46 and no longer 45 and a half even. I think that's a nice little thing there. But this is a Pat's team that's given up five sacks per game in the playoffs. I think the Seahawks are going to get there against Drake May. I think they're better equipped to stop other items there. And on the flip side, while the Pat's defense has been amazing, let's look at who they faced on the way there. The Chargers' offensive line, they're known issues. The Texans' offensive line and they're known issues. And CJ Stroud doing CJ Stroud things.

30:00I'm not quite sure exactly what happened to Stroud in the playoffs, but he made some really awful, awful decisions along the way. And then Jared Stidham in the snow for crying out loud. I think that this is a very good defense. I don't know if it's an elite defense. Nonetheless, I do like them keeping it somewhat close. I think within a touchdown. So my idea is that I kind of like the Seahawks by six or seven. And when a little bit of a tighter game, like 27, 17 sort of type of thing. OK. So you do have a couple rushing props and a couple receiving props that you like here. Let's start with the rushing props. What do you got? OK. So running back prop is a Ramondri Stevenson over two and a half catches in this one here. During the regular season, the Seattle Seahawks allowed 97 catches to running backs. Stevenson has been the guy that has been the target more often than not for the Patriots. Lately, when it comes to throwing to the running back, they don't throw to the running back a ton in this one there.

31:01But I think that is one way you try to attack Seattle. And maybe that's a part of that might be a function of them having to try to give Drake May an outlet there, someone to throw to. And four of the last five games, Steven since had like four plus targets. So I think that this is something that we can kind of count on a little bit there. I don't expect the same extreme ratio of snaps that we saw between Stevenson and Travion Henderson that we did in the game against the Broncos. I think this was an extreme condition sort of game. Nonetheless, Henderson has been out of favor. And that's in its continuing trend. So I think, you know, any time there's like a patching situation for running back, it's going to go to Stevenson. So Ramondri, that's one I like. Ramondri over two and a half catches, pardon me. So running back prop, yes, but not a rushing prop. All right. What's the other running back? I do have a rushing prop for a receiver, though. Oh, OK. And that's where she's she he'd five and a half rush yards. Again, you know, kind of turning the regular season a little bit to look at this. Some was that the Seahawks allowed 149 rushing yards to wide receivers, most in the NFL.

32:02She he'd, I mean, sorry, the Patriots allowed 149 rush yards to opposing receiver. Sorry, I misspoke. Most in the NFL, I think she heads the guy that is an obvious choice for that. I don't think he's going to be a heavily targeted guy. That seems like something they've kind of gone away from. They never aside from the Colts game, there really weren't too many games where he got a lot of targets in the passing game. But I do think he gets like one end around. And I think it'll be successful enough there. So I kind of like the over five and a half rushing yards. All right. So Ramondri over two and a half catches, running back over catches. She he'd wide receiver over five and a half rushing yards. You have two others. Yes, I've been a fade case on Boute's number of catches under two and a half receptions. You know, he's more of a downfield. You know, intermediate and downfield sort of guy, if the pass rush is going to be a problem for Drake May. Well, Boute's the type of guy who will probably be affected more by that than say like a Stefan Diggs, who can do a lot a little of those interior routes. I think, you know, Boute's the guy that's a,

33:02they're going to try to hit on the outside, the lower percentage plays or the plays that take a little longer to develop. So I'm going to try to avoid that. And I, you know, I think in the return of Mack Collins also hurts Boute a little bit too. Cooper Cup on the other hand for the Seahawks. I like the over two and a half mostly because I think Christian Gonzalez is going to spend almost all of his time on JSN. And so Cup is going to have to step up a little bit there. So over two and a half receptions for Cooper Cup is something that I like. Okay, there we go. Four props will repeat them at the end of the show. But again, Ramandre over two and a half receptions. Shaheed over five and a half rushing yards. Keishan Boute, Boute over two and a half, excuse me, under two and a half receptions pardon me. And then Cooper Cup over two and a half receptions. By the way, breaking news from Adam Schefter. Sources, the bills have made their move. They are working to finalize a deal to make offensive coordinator Joe Brady, their new head coach. There you go. So some six, seven years after being the guiding force,

34:04one might say an LSU's run to the national title, Joe Brady, the head man for the Buffalo Bills. That is the latest there in the NFL coaching carousel. More with Jeff Erickson on the other side, baseball season, win totals. Next on A Numbers Game. The numbers told the story of the Alex now. Swindled to idiots who believe in athletics. This is A Numbers Game with Gill Alixander gone V-send. Howard number three of A Numbers Game at V-send, these sports betting network V-send.com game plus I-Hard Radio, YouTube TV, Series X of Channel 158. Gill Alixander, Danny Higgins, in for the ailing Kelly Bidlin, who is suffering from migraines this morning, was yesterday still suffering from them. So he is a, he's a out was his designation today. Questionable is his designation for tomorrow. We'll see if that gets upgraded or downgraded. We do still have doubtful as part of our designations. Still to come this hour, Ben Wilson will join us.

35:05The most famous person that will ever come out of V-send non-stormy Bonatoni market. Yes, Ben Wilson will join us a little later on. Talk Super Bowl 60 with us, talk Australian. Open, talk about everything he's doing, play by play these days. One of the great guys. He's all over the place. Oh, yeah. And Danny's where you're standing in this place, right? Yeah, there you go. The Ben Wilson mansion here in Las Vegas. All right, I have, I was so looking forward to this segment because yesterday, here's how this came about. Yesterday on the show, I just, you know, I said Sunday in our group chat as the Patriots were getting to Super Bowl. I openly asked the group chat. I was like, I wonder if like the Patriots, the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl. I said that out loud and then I decided, you know, hey, it's the old Annie Hall Woody Allen thing where I could pull Marshall McCleod out from behind the curtain and ask him for the real evaluation of this and our Marshall McCleod in this case, happens to be Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, who is the chief analytics officer at FTN Sports and Aaron is kind enough on the spur of the moment

36:06to come on the show this morning to put all of this in perspective. He joins us now courtesy of the progressive guest line. You could follow him on Twitter at a shots NFL that's SCH ATZ. Aaron, good morning to you, sir. Hey, good morning, guys. How are you today? Do it very well. And this also comes because Patriots fans, I don't know if you know this as a lifelong Patriots fans. They tend to be on the more sensitive side, Aaron. Have you found this in your experience? You being one of them, I kind of know. So yes, I'm curious. Okay, so that's the hypothesis. Well, we'll save where the Patriots rank for last year. We'll go through the worst 10 teams by DVOA to make the Super Bowl of all time. Now, of all time would mean there's 120 of these, including the Seahawks and the Patriots from this year. But DVOA goes back to 1978. So I guess we're talking about 96 teams total. I guess is what that means. Yeah, it sounds about right, yep. Okay. All right, I give you the floor. Who's who's you want to do this 10 through one or one through 10? How do you want to do it?

37:08Let's do it from 10 to one. Okay. So the 10th worst was the 2001 Patriots, the first Tom Brady Super Bowl victory, the first Tom Brady Super Bowl team. Although that team had something very much in common with this team, which is that their worst games were at the beginning of the year when blood so was the start. Uh-huh. Okay. And of course, Adam Venetary with the heroics there at the end of that Super Bowl. All right, number nine. 1993 bills from when the NFC was so much better than the AFC in general. That was a cowboys loss. That one. That one was the cowboys. Yeah, yeah, that was the I think of 52 to 10 or something like that one after the 93 season. Okay, the 93 bills, I'm not sure if that was the Leon let Dan Don BB Super Bowl, maybe, but that was, uh, I don't remember whether that was 92 or 93. I can't remember either. They blended with each other. Okay, the 93 bills, the ninth worst team by DVOA

38:11to make the Super Bowl. Number eight, they have number eight won it. And that's the 2011 Giants. Oh, wow. That was the only team in Super Bowl history that was outscored by its opponents in the regular season. So the eighth worst team by DVOA to make the Super Bowl actually won the Super Bowl, the 2011 Giants who beat your patriots, of course, famously. The 2011 Giants. Wow. And that was, so that was not the beating the 2007 undefeated patriots. That was, so that was not the, but that's coming. Oh, it's coming. Okay, what's next? Let's go to number seven. Number seven is the 1987 Redskins. That is throwing out the strike games. So that's a team that was eight and four in non-strike games. So obviously a very weird year. The Broncos weren't that good that year either. Were they nine and three or eight and four non-strike? I thought they were two. I believe Washington was eight and four without the strike. Okay. My memory says nine and three, but you might be right. Yes, but you know what at least we have from that year,

39:12though, Aaron, the SCAB three games, they made movies about it. So there's that. We have a movie about it. That's right. That's right. Okay, number six worst. Number six is the worst regular season team to ever win the Super Bowl, the 2007 Giants, the biggest upset NFL history. So the sixth and eighth worst teams to ever make of the Super Bowl are the best two teams to ever win it. The 2007 Giants, it's six of the 2011 Giants at eight. The 2007 Giants, of course, the team that beat the undefeated Patriots famously. One of the greatest teams of all time, if not the best. That was the David Tyree year. And who made the great catch in the 2011? The long, who was that on the side? Manningham. Manningham, that's right. Manningham, Mario Manningham. All right, number five worst. Number five is the 2000 Giants against the Ravens. Oh, I agree. The Kerry Collins led Giants. Yeah, they were bad. Though they crushed the Vikings of the NFC championship.

40:13Remember it was like 41 to three or something. Or 41 to nothing, something like that. All right, their number five and they got crushed by the Ravens. Number four worst team by DVOA to make the Super Bowl. The 2021 Bengals. Oh, really? Wow. Yeah. Do you remember the map? We had some big losses. Yeah. OK. The 2021 Bengals, who famously win the guys of the playoffs, the first team they beat is the number one seeded Titans, even though the Titans sacked burrow nine times. And they overcame that. All right, number three worst. Now we are into teams that are actually negative, that are actually below average in the regular season. But the 2003 Carolina Panthers led by Jake Delomb. Didn't they comported themselves very well in the Super Bowl, though, didn't they? Yeah, they almost won the Super Bowl. They lost on a last minute field goal against the Patriots. Tom Brady's second title, correct? If I'm not mistaken, yeah. OK. Number two worst.

41:15Number two is a weird one, the 1979 Rams. The Rams were really, really good from 1972 to 1978. Really good. And then they had this off year where they were 9 and 7. And that's the only year that they actually made it to the Super Bowl, and then they lost to the Steelers. It's true, 72 to 78. It was like the James Harris sort of Rams era. They were always good. It was like the bills and the Ravens of the last few years where they were just good year after year after year. And they just couldn't get over the hump. That's right. And then 1970 that was Vince Farragamo was their quarterback in the Super Bowl when they lost to the Steelers. Yeah. Was that pre-Deter Brock, post-Deter, but I can't remember where Deeter Brock fits in. Deeter Brock is 1985. OK, many years later. So that was a Vince Farragamo Rams team who lost to the Steelers. In the, it was at the last of the four Chucknails Super Bowl titles. I believe so. Yeah, it was. OK.

42:15And the worst team to ever make a Super Bowl per DVOA is? The worst team that ever made the Super Bowl almost won it. And that is the 2008 Arizona Cardinals with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. That team lost to the Matt Castle Patriots 47 to 7 in week 16. 47 to 7 and then went on to the Super Bowl. And were it not for the Santonio Holmes toe tap in the corner? They may win that Super Bowl, right? How? That's right. That was the Larry Fitzgerald dash to the end zone that put the Cardinals up. I want to say with less than two minutes left. And then, uh, big Ben and the Steelers came back. What's that total rank number that we have? So here's the list for those who are watching. That's how much they ranked out of all the teams of that year. So Arizona was 23rd out of 32. Oh my God. Wow. So again, if you, if you're the one of the worst teams to win the Super Bowl,

43:17twice you've actually won it in the top 10 worst and a couple of other teams. 1987 Redskins two. Oh, 1987 Red, of course, the Doug Williams 35 points in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos Redskins of 1987. So three of those top 10 won the Super Bowl and a couple others. The first and third worst, the 2008 Cardinals and the 2003 Carolina Panthers came awfully close. There's a couple of other close calls in there. Well, okay, which then begs the question in the whole reason while why we're doing this, Aaron, Aaron shot the creator of DVOA, which analyzes every play of national football league play all the way back to the 1978 season against league average granular level of analysis. Where then do these 2025 New England Patriots rank among the 96 teams that DVOA has tracked? They rank 81st out of 96. So the 16th worst. Yes, so the 16th worst, but with the kind of asterisk,

44:21they have been much better in the second half of the season. I have a rating I call weighted DVOA that's weighted towards recent games. Using that rating, they had the biggest difference between weighted DVOA and regular DVOA of any playoff team ever. Ooh, okay. So there's one for the. That's how bad they were in the first couple of weeks. Okay, so overall 16th worst, but way trending upward based on the second half of the season. If you look at weighted DVOA, they're much more like a typical Super Bowl team. Weighted DVOA much more typical, but overall, overall 16th worst, yeah. Okay, and as a Patriots fan and as the guy who created this stat, it all kind of checks out to you with the eye test. Do you think all that that sounds about right? I win either way. Either Seattle, my number one team wins the whole thing, thus validating everything I've said about the mull season,

45:23or the Patriots, the team I root for wins the whole thing, thus validating me personally. So I already won the Super Bowl. You won and shots your winner. Everybody, that's the upshot of this segment. And again, we're refresh everybody's memory. These Seahawks who were number one in DVOA this year were what, the 7th greatest DVOA team of all time? 7th best regular season team I've ever measured back to 78, yeah. Wow. Aaron, I cannot thank you enough. We usually have our quarters and we don't even think of it coming on, but this demanded it because people went nuts when they even dared ask the question. So thank you for being the Marshal McLuhan and putting this all in perspective for us. I appreciate it. You are welcome. You are welcome. I like under in the Super Bowl. He likes under there. Where can people go? F-T-N? F-T-N fantasy.com. There it is. Thank you, Aaron. Appreciate it. Ben Wilson. Right. Next on a numbers game. Right. Right. Right. Next on a numbers game. Right. Right. Right. Next on a numbers game.