Best of A Numbers Game | January 21, 2026

0:00A number is called the story of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with Kill Out Exander gone. He said good Wednesday morning to does a numbers game. It's the sports betting that we're facing dot com game. Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, series XM channel what 58? Kill Alexander Kelly Bidlin in the his a good morning. And by the his I mean circle resort casino. That's right downtown Las Vegas. What's happening man? You good? I'm good. It's cold in the studio today. Oh, it is frigid colder than wherever Fred Carter is going to send us a picture. Well, I think it's perfect. I don't know. What is the climate in here? You're a very climate sensitive and I jacked up the heater and it's like here. I don't know why we have the most high power and air conditioning system in the world in the studio. It's nice. Everybody send their thoughtful notes to Kelly, he's struggling this morning with the temperature on today's show. Will Hill will join us here with all of his bets momentarily NFL and beyond Greg Peterson, the fab five from Greg Peterson is fab five picks in college basketball.

1:02He's got about 47 of them, but we we just reduce it to five. Yes. All the time. We have four. It's five. See in the jot a little later on to talk American Express golf with us as well. Get his thoughts on both championship games. See from the DMV Nick Whalen from roto wire on championship weekend and some NBA thoughts from him as well. And they weren't sharp on championship weekend. Tadewish Dev kill host of the Megapod. He'll have some thoughts to share. He is a college basketball theory that some folks might be interested in the theory like it. Okay. He spit ball and something spit ball and something as as the, you know, it hasn't been as big of a boon for him in a recent week or two, though he says some thoughts have entered his mind. So we'll talk about that with him later. We'll do more tennis props. By the way, oh, and two on the official registry yesterday in tennis, sorry, they didn't get up on the website. Bill, Bill told me he was, he had napped in the afternoon and he's my, he's my white glove service. So he didn't get up inside. So you probably only went on one.

2:04So good. In that case. Um, not many, I didn't really like that much yesterday. We'll have a back at it today for the second round, but we will do some tennis props. People seem to like the tennis prop yesterday. So we'll do some more of those today later on the show. This is from Diana Rossini Kelly as the coaching carousel continues the Eagles conducting their offensive coordinator search with the understanding that Brian Dable wants the Bill's head coaching job. If he doesn't land that, Dable is expected to wind up in Tennessee as the offensive coordinator for cam ward and the Titans. Mm hmm. I guess for Robert Salah and the Titans is, is what one would say quite a gap between those jobs. But you know, so let me, let me, let me interpret that tweet. So Eagles are like, okay, cool. We get it. If you get the Bill's head coaching job, we totally understand. But what is that last part? It's like you're expected to wind up in Tennessee. What are we doing? It sounds like Rossini is saying that he's narrowed it down between the Buffalo Bill's head coaching job or the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator job, which like I just said, quite

3:04the gap between those two jobs. Yeah. Yeah. This is on the heels this morning, Rossini and Shafter reporting, um, Bill's requested a head coach interview with Brian Dable. So that's why he, we are seeing him there, Brian Dable, the former OC with the Buffalo Bill's, by the way, the beauty of this stuff now is you can bet on all of this, right? We're not just some sports talking heads talking about coaching, you bet on this stuff at Calci prediction market, Brian Dable to be the, let's talk about the Buffalo Bill's first, Buffalo Bill's next head coaching odds. Brian Dable is your short shot at plus 22, Kelly. There's also a no price, by the way, you'd like to play it that way. Dable who had success there as a OC, then, uh, not so much as the giant's head coach. And let me just say this. I personally, me, I wouldn't hire the guy, I saw enough of him on that, uh, on that hard knocks preseason one to know he's not my type of guy. A little too arrogant for your accomplishments, my friend. It's, it's, man, it's tough. It's, it, it, I don't know where they're going to go with this search, but like if you've

4:06got Josh Allen yelling at ownership that I want that guy back is, that's all that matters. It's probably all that matters. And I mean, I think that's the only reason we've been talking about him right now. Anyways, because that's what, that's what is happening behind, uh, behind the scenes, but man, if you're the bill, if you're the bill's ownership, you got to think more, more about just that, right? Then just that, uh, one would think, one would think, um, the, the one that, the name on here, I don't know if you've heard this like the Davis web stuff the past few days. So Davis Web is the offensive passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach for the Denver Broncos. Mm hmm. Not the offense of coordinator, but what I just said, that mouthful, offensive passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach Davis Web is the fourth shot to be the bill's next head coach at plus 488 in between table and Web is Clint Coot, and these, these guys, it's, it's really amazing because what the remaining, what is it eight vacancies that we still have? No seven. Seven. Seven vacancies. Yeah. Seven vacancies. Now the table, uh, excuse me, that does Salah is now with the Titans. Oh no, six because we also had, um, the dolphins fill theirs, right?

5:09So in addition to the first two going. So we have six vacancies still, but you'll see the same names Clint Kubiak is the second short shot here is the second shot at the, uh, the bills head coaching job at plus 284 Kubiak, the Seattle offensive coordinator, and then Joe Brady at plus three 34 Joe Brady, the current Buffalo OC, which is another fascinating one, right? Cause that he was the first question that, you know, I kind of had when we saw Sean McDermott was getting canned. He was like, well, what about Joe Brady? Cause, well, what does that mean for him? Are you ready to elevate him and kick McDermott out? Joe Brady, who was with LSU during the spectacular 2019 LSU championship run with Joe burrow. He then immediately got the, uh, those C job with the Carolina Panthers. He didn't go so well there. Oh, just trying to remember Panthers. Yeah. And then he sort of like had to work his way back up in Buffalo and he's been there in different roles. Most recently, of course, the offensive coordinator role. And he's, he's behind Dable and Kubiak.

6:10I just don't know whether I guess that's a little bit where Dave Hall makes sense though. Cause if Bray, like, I don't know where, if a new coach is coming in, I don't know what that says about the future of Joe Brady, right? Right. Right. Like, you're going to be OC for another head coach. Well, especially because Brian Dable is on his side of the ball, right? That's what I'm talking about. A table could make sense and Joe Brady gets out of town. Terry Pagula. By the way, if you were wondering about why did the Buffalo Bills decide to get away from Sean McDermott, Terry Pagula owner of the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabers and most famously father of top five player in the world, Jesse Pagula has to be said, Terry Pagula, my decision was based on the game in Denver. That's it. That's what he said. He said, what happened in Denver? He had seen enough. So Terry Pagula moved on. You know what is an interesting question? If I may, I know I joke about the, I'm not joking, but I was throw Jesse Pagula in there, right? One of the top five women's tennis players in the world. But Jesse Pagula recently had a coaching, her coach change in tennis.

7:11I wonder if there wasn't some inspiration from that where she was able to sort of elevate with a coaching change who had, she had been with a very long time and then she sort of cracked through a glass ceiling. I do wonder if someone would ask him that. If that inspired him at all, but he says the Denver game. So that tweet, yeah, looks like they got their end of season press conference going on right now. Okay. Fascinating. We have any other teams here. Yeah, we do. And I will update these real quick because they will be in the, in the news this morning, this price is crashing plus one twenty seven. Oh, Brian. Sounds, sounds like it could be a done deal. By the way, all these prices that Kalshi are created, not by an odds maker, but by actual bets made. So typically inside information will rule the day on most of these, though it sure didn't when it came to who's going to make the CFP playoff, tell you that Baltimore Raven's next head coaching odds, Jesse Mentor is your favorite at minus one ninety five. This feels like it's a, does he feel like it's a done deal there in Baltimore? I mean, I was start. So this is where we've been doing all these Kalshi markets.

8:13Right. We started to, started to hear this last night, saw a steam coming in on Mentor. Like, oh, man, this is going to get announced soon. I'm like, I'm so glad I put a bet in on him. Like a month ago, we first talked about this. Good for you. Jesse Mentor. Nope, forgot to do a kill. Oh, you did. When we first talked about this market, I was like, Mentor would make a lot of sense. Apparently, not so good for you. Jesse Mentor at minus one ninety five, Jesse Mentor, the chargers defensive coordinator followed by again, some of the usual suspects, Clint Kubiak, once again, the Seattle OC, a distant second at plus five sixty six. Yes. Anthony Weaver, the Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator and Joe Brady, the aforementioned over 13 to one in both cases for the Ravens job. Brian flew, by the way, if you went further down the Ravens list, past Mentor, Kubiak, Weaver and Brady, then you get into names like Nathan Schillhouse, who's the one who's the Rams passing game coordinator, Sean McDermott, you know him 19 to one former head coach Buffalo Bills, Brian Flores, you're learning where's Brian

9:16Flores, Minnesota defensive coordinator, 32, and then Chris Shula, the Rams defensive coordinate, 24. There we go. I mean, this is it's just the usual suspects on all of these. I think this one, this is the one sounds mentor to Ravens has made the most sense to me since since Hart, we knew Harbaugh was gone. I mean, mentor was there before this is kind of where he's gotten this all, always NFL flowers. Although you're going from John Harbaugh to a gym Harbaugh guy, so that was the only butt, right? You know, is that weird? Is that somehow weird? I don't think I don't want to just break out of that. If you're a shoddy, I think Jesse Mentor will have the opportunity to make a name for himself. Well, he, I'm sure he would, but in Bashad, he's head is he, does that creep in? I'm sure it has. I mean, I'm sure it has. I don't think it's going to matter though. I don't, I don't think you pass up on a good coach, just because of that. By the way, leading candidate for the Arizona Cardinals job, which is a job I have thought three seconds about the entire time. I would not look up odds for all of this. Yes, go. Is, is Vance Joseph, Vance Joseph is like a big favorite to be the next Arizona Cardinals

10:21had a coach. He's the Denver defensive coordinator. So, and I need to say that checks out though, right? Yeah, Vance Joseph, Joseph plus one, eight to right now. Okay. So not a big favorite. Plus one away. He's a short shot. My bad short shot still. Yeah. So six of these jobs still available, 10 changing hands this year. And the only other thing we heard, we heard yesterday is you're wondering about Mike McDaniel, the former Miami Dolphins head coach who got ousted this year. Mike McDaniel appears to be set to take the offensive coordinator job with the chargers. Yeah. So he, he's told other teams that he had head coaching interviews with, hey, I'm not, I'm not in this anymore. That's good point. I guess it's still a report, but yeah, chargers expected to hire Mike McDaniel's new offensive coordinator. I like for him. I, yeah, yeah, yeah, the humility to, you know, to turn down some of these other head coaching jobs or humility or knowing that you're going to get a better one in the future. If you take a job like that, I think that's the plan. I think it makes a lot of sense, right? For people like me that have been big critics, adjusting Herbert in this offense is a big

11:23opportunity to turn around a very promising quarterback in offense there. Hey, who's washing and hiring? Oh, it's still Dan Quinn. Oh, great. Anyway, you can bet on all these at a prediction market like Kalshi. Check it out for those interested in betting on such things. Will Hill with all of his bets NFL and beyond his numbers gave it. Vason, these sports betting that were coming back. You're here because you want an edge. That's what separates listeners from winners. But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools, the data and the discipline. And now so can you. Vason pro gives you access to the same real time insights, the sharps use, no secrets, no fluff, just actionable info that moves markets. Tap the link and see why serious bettors are turning knowledge into profit with Vason pro. The number is called the story of those 80s and believe in analytics.

12:25This is a numbers game with Gill, I like Xander gone. V said our number two of a numbers game at Vason. These sports betting network, Vason.com game, plus I hard radio, YouTube TV. Of course, series XM channel 158 Gill, Alexander Kelly, Bidlin or shall I say Seth Rogan? Yeah, sitting next to me here. Just chill is chilling. Don't you have anything? By the way, you want a golden globe? Congratulations on your golden globe. Oh, thank you. Yeah. Well done. Still what was that for for that show that studio or whatever it is, which I've never seen. He apparently is massively popular. Yeah, I heard it was good, but I heard it was good when it like first came out. You know, and you don't like hear again after it after that, right? It would sound like if show first starts, you hear it's good from a couple of people, then you don't hear anything. I think I saw him win the award. He was like, this is so weird. I'm winning an award on something we want to do in a show on something that still to come Nick Whalen on the show talking championship week in the NFL with us. We'll do some Australian open props. We'll also have Warren Sharpen, Tadi Wish Neve with a little college basketball theory

13:26from him. We get tweets to be in the book, Justin D. It's a shot of Kelly taking notes to never talk about any halls of fame ever again. All the well from the office. What does he mean by that that you, uh, I don't know, I think Justin thinks I wasn't thrilled by that. That's a girl. Alexander classic. Every time he wants to talk about it, I'm like, just racking up. Okay. Speaking of that, a young Jeff Parles was highlighted in that video as well as Brian M on the O's, oh, we have a clarification. He says on the O's predicting the score slash matchup. He didn't Brian M says Devonte Adams predicted it, uh, that they got there and it would be against the Broncos and the score would be 20 to 23 to 14. O's just said what Devonte was thinking and wrote on his hand, Brian, I have a counter to your counter, which is when O's Perlman was on this show, O's the mentalist, my reaction to what he did to me was, let me ask you a question. Did you read what my mind was thinking or did you plant the idea in my mind? Just the Dan Marley one. I'll never forget Dan Marley. Bro, that's you gave away the punchline of it all.

14:28I want people to go look at. Yeah. It is the Dan Marley one. Like I didn't, I didn't understand how he could possibly. First of all, dude, I had never heard for all the times we've done shows together. I never, never heard you once reference it. Well, so this was the whole thing. So, oh, first of all, O's figured out the card from a 52 or a deck of 52 cards. He figured out the card that I placed under my butt. He got that right. That was like, okay, I already did a cartridge. Then he was like, think of an athlete in any of the four major sports that you've never to your knowledge ever said his even name, even his name once on your show. And for whatever reason, in my head, at that moment, I cannot explain why Dan Marley thundered Dan Marley of the Phoenix Sons came in my head and I wrote a download piece of paper. And he goes, I think you think this and that, Dan, Dan Moore, I never had to this day. I can't explain wild man. It was wild. Jeff Holdorf congrats Carlos Beltran fourth attempt at Andrew Jones ninth attempt for reaching the Hall of Fame. The work these two men put in during the last couple of years finally made them worthy

15:31of the honor. Hall of Fame voting is ridiculous. Roger Landcaster. Neil McCoy has done the Pledge of Allegiance on Facebook every day for 10 years now. Oh, talking about like, oh, you're saying Greg Peterson streak has been, uh, has been topped by Neil McCoy doing the Pledge of Allegiance, yeah, the Pledge of Allegiance like, what, 15 seconds. Yeah. Come on now. What nice job, Neil McCoy. Very patriotic. Does y'all do that thing when you're in school where you're like, uh, one nation under a groove? Did you do that? What do you mean? That's how we said it. There's a little tribute to Funkadelica's kids, like one nation under a groove, indivisible. Buddhist man breaking news from the A and G investing, uh, do they do it in school still? I think that stopped. They don't do the pledge anymore. Oh, we did it every morning. Yeah, I know we did too. But I think that stopped. And I'm not sure. And then I went to a private school and they were doing the Lord's Prayer. And I was like, did I miss some summer reading? I don't know what this is. What are you guys talking about? What are you guys talking about? What are you guys talking about? Buddhist man breaking news from my A and G investigative reporter, William Hilliam, he says,

16:32I'm sure Sean Payton, who's an ego maniac to begin with, that film at 11. Yeah, he will did go all in on, uh, on Sean Payton. Ian Ajad is kind enough to join us for the DMV. We love ourselves. I'm Sia. He's hosting an analyst for sports line. You can follow him on Twitter at S I A N E J A D. That's N E J A D. That's what spells see an Ajad. See how you doing, man? I'm good. I'm learning things right now. I thought it was Oz, not os. It's a, well, he pronounced it Oz for the Americans, but it's really os is how we pronounce it as native. I get it. Yeah. So we go. Okay. Yeah. That kind of, I feel like, yeah, all right. But you know, for the American audience is Oz Perlman, right? But it's Oz Perlman, is that what he goes with? Uh, let me ask you before we get to golf, your thoughts on the AFC and or NFC championship. Did you make any bets? Yeah, I've made a couple of bets so far. I just bet Ramondra Stevenson, and this is a player problem. I mean, I bet Ramondra Stevenson, uh, over 11 and a half Russian attempts, kind of juicy in that minus 135, minus 140 range.

17:33I really like him, uh, there, uh, I like the Rams quite a bit. I think the Rams are going to win the Super Bowl. So I was kind of waiting to see if the two and a half would go to three Seth and Gil, but long story short, it looks like it's going to stick at two and a half. And so I'm just going to end up taking the points there. I like that you did that straight face. Just keep, just keep running with it. Absolutely. Okay. Yeah. Uh, shall we go to golf? The American Express. See, uh, is this the first, is this the first time we're seeing Scotty Schaeffler this year? It is the first time we're seeing Scotty Schaeffler and he's predictably a very short favorite. Do you, uh, like the bet that I made, uh, minus 125 for him to win a major this year? That is interesting. Um, yes, I do like that, that, I mean, the part of me would say, gosh, there's so many great golfers and so many guys coming on, but at the end of the day, it's Scotty. I, I think it's a good, but I, I personally wouldn't put a ton on that, but I think it's a good bet. Okay. Um, this obviously is not a major. It's the American Express where Scotty Schaeffler just to give folks a sense of how

18:36odds are going to be when Scotty Schaeffler is playing in a non, in a non major, Scotty Schaeffler is plus two 90 to win this tournament. The next shortest, the next golfer on this market in this market, Ben Griffin who had a great year last year is 20 to one. And the O bears of the world who were considered one of these, you know, up in commerce to be one of the great golfers in the world, he's 22 to one and so on and so forth. The Kent lays of the world are 30 to one. I mean, is this, I, good God, is this just the nature of golf now in 2026? Is what we're going to see whenever he's involved? Yeah. There's a big gap. I, what I will say and, you know, I kind of chickened out. I bet that without Scotty Schaeffler market, I'm pretty fond of it. Even though we know the hold in the math isn't great there. What I will say is at easier tournaments, easier layouts like this. And I'm sure Kelly agrees like it brings in all the golfers and it brings in the element of, well, Scotty can't separate himself quite as much on a course like this. That's kind of easy for everybody. Keep in mind, this is a pro am too versus like, you know, a really tough course.

19:39And so I do think it lends itself to Scotty, you know, I would never bet Scotty plus 290 just in general, but I do think betting Scotty at this tournament doesn't really make a lot of sense. Maybe a more challenging course and more challenging track. It does make sense to play him, but I mean, this is the state of the game right now. Scotty is an absolute winner and frankly, when you look at Scotty versus some of the other up and coming golfers, like the Ludwig's or the Havelin juice playing over in Dubai, like just just the younger generation of golfers. None of them have any closing outside of like Rory and some of the obvious ones. None of them have the closing ability that Scotty Schuffler does. So I mean, it does make sense that a tournament like this, we're seeing this gap between Scotty and literally everybody else. And he's hitting it six yards further. That's right. That's right. So he says, Gil. So he says. Yeah. Prove yourself to a Scotty Schuffler. All right, Zia. Had you had enough betting this then? So I did do the without market. I did the without Scotty Schuffler market for the most part.

20:41I also dabbled in the without big five market, which would be a burn Scotty, Henley Griffin and Ludwig. But ultimately, I went with some guys that I think are going to be able to score on this course. I mean, you gotta, you gotta rack up the birdies. And in my opinion, I want to look at guys that are really coming on and I want to look at guys that are household names, but are kind of have fallen off the map just a little bit. Matt Fitzpatrick is one of those names where for like three years, Matt Fitzpatrick was pretty much bad, like just straight up bad. But last year we saw it even before the Scottish open and the open championship, Matt Fitzpatrick really came on. And so I'm looking at him as a guy that's going to win a couple of times this year. And I'm just going to go ahead and be early on him. I took him 30 to one again in the without Scotty market. You can take him 40 to one if you want, including Scotty. Ricky Fowler is another guy that really came on last year, haven't seen a ton of him. I like him 40 to one in the without Scotty Shuffle market. And then Jacob Bridgman is the next guy. Kind of a funny story if you follow me on Twitter. I thought I put $14 on Jacob Bridgman in the without market to win a thousand.

21:46I accidentally hit two fours. So it's $144 to win $11,600 and change. So apparently I have that ticket that I'm really rooting for if you want to go to see everyone. Yeah, happy accident. But I did on this swing. I put Jacob Bridgman in the without big five market because he is kind of a long shot. Max Homo is my favorite long shot, even though it should be Jacob Bridgman. 75 to one without the big five really likes the way Max. We haven't seen him a lot lately, but really looked like how he came on particularly on approach and with the putter late in the season last year. And then Sammy Balamaki, I cashed on him twice in the fall swing first round leader and outright. This is a guy that can rack up the birdies 90 to one without the big five wouldn't be a C in the shot segment without first round leaders. Your signature. What do you got? Well, we've got three different courses that we got three different sets of first round leaders, seven total on the Nicholas tournament course. I've got Pearson, QD at 25 to one Jacob Bridgman at 30 to one and Sammy Balamaki at 35 to one at Lakinta. I've got Ricky Fowler at 28 to one Max Grazer minute 30 to one.

22:49It should be noted that I think it's Lakinta that has Scotty Sheffler and some of the heavy hitters like Sam Burns, Russell Henley. Maybe that's one you want to avoid, but I do think Fowler and Grazer and Ken Shine there in round one. And then on the stadium course, I've got Max Homa at 25 to one and Nick Dunlap at 33 to one. Let's go Max Homa. I don't know if you heard this off air, Sia, but Kelly Bidlin, maybe influencing bedding markets. Would you like to share Kelly with the. I guarantee you I'm not because otherwise it would have they would have listened to me three years ago. But yeah, draft Kings with the lowest 18 whole score market up now, which is what I've been yellowed about every round, any round. So the lowest round of the tournament odds, Scotty Sheffler, your short shot, 10 to one, Ludwig Obergs, Burns and Ben Griff and 35 to one, Kenley, McIntyre, 41, everybody else longer. First time you ever seen that, Sia. Yeah, I've seen it. I just wonder if it's going to be throughout the four rounds. So this it'll be interesting. But yeah, I think maybe you are influencing this market. Take a look at Enrico Palazzo. He's got a good number.

23:49Oh, man. Thanks for listening. I always appreciate it. See you in the shot. Always great to see you, man. I'll be back in the DMV in a few months. Well, hang out. Thank you. Well, I am. Absolutely. Appreciate it, man. Thank you so much. See you in the shot, everybody. S-I-A-N-E-J-A-D on Twitter. Does this stuff over at SportsLine? We'll come back. Talk about the NFC Championship and the AFC Championship next. Back on the numbers game, live from Circa Resort. You see downtown Las Vegas, Galai, Exander, Kelly Vittlin in the house as well. Nick Whalen joins us now. Nick is at Roto Wire of course. He's a Roto Wire senior analyst. You can follow him on Twitter at Whalen, but substitute that L with the number one. And that's where you'll find him. How you doing, Nick? Doing great, guys. Doing great. Once again, woke up to like four inches of snow here in Wisconsin. I am envious of the weather that you guys, I'm sure, are enjoying out in Vegas right now.

24:51But look it forward, of course, to conference championship weekend and still thinking, man, the Jacksonville Jaguars missed an opportunity. They should be playing this weekend. They should be on their way to the Super Bowl. Yeah. First of all, let me correct you first, Nick. According to Kelly, it is very cold here. It's good in the studio now, though. 72 and a half degrees. Yeah. So I just want to get that out of the way. Okay. I mean, it probably does feel like a missed opportunity for Jacksonville and for Jacksonville fans. I'm sure it does. It could have been anybody's, though, this year, right? It was just that kind of season where I don't think we've, I don't think we're being prison or the moment. I don't think this NFL season was like any other in terms of just not having any clue who is going to ultimately end up, especially from the AFC, right? Yeah. And ironically, we ended up with the one in the two seed in the AFC, right? Despite saying how wide open it was from from week eight on, and I'm with you, I believe that was the case. And, you know, of course, the, the bonix injury kind of throws all of this off and it feels like New England, you know, things are just going to keep breaking that team's way where,

25:55you know, Drake May has not played it anywhere close to an MVP level over these last two games. It simply does not matter. He's fumbled the ball six times. He is lost. I believe three of those. He's throwing a couple of picks. And they still win both of those games by two scores. I think there are a lot of teams, you know, especially you look at a team like Green Bay, you know, where Jordan loved played. The numbers would tell you at least the best of any quarterback on wild card weekend. And they can't find a way to win that game against Chicago and New England, of course, you know, just riding that defense so far through these first two games. And, you know, I, I don't know where you guys stand on the AFC, JB chip game, but I will be surprised if this is a walk in the park for the Patriots. I mean, a third straight, really difficult defense you have to face. Now you're going out on the road, you know, a full seven point shift going from Bonyx to Jared Stadium feels a little rich. And yet, you know, it's a backup quarterback in the AFC, JB chip game. So I understand the movement. Oh, I think the Broncos may very well win, too, when all is said and done. I just want to, and I want to go back to the fumbles again, fumble luck while we on these kinds of shows, right, on betting, in, in betting content, we do discuss fumble

26:59luck. They don't ever in mainstream media, right? But even with us discussing it, I just want to reiterate again that while we discuss it, we then all sort of purge it from our brains, too, which is the fact that we'll Campbell jumped on both of those fumbles one at the three yard line, one and also in their own territory towards the end of the second half. That's the game right there, right? Like if Houston jumps on those on those ball on those fumbles, those are, you know, all legacy altering plays where all of a sudden we're talking about, well, there you go, Patriots. You couldn't do it in the playhouse sort of thing. And the Houston Texans defense, that unit alone is carried this team this far. They're going to carry him farther, even without CJ Stroud doing anything. In fact, CJ Stroud being a detriment. So it's just, it's really, we don't linger on that kind of thing, but really it can be distilled to those two plays before we get to the AFC championship. Can we just talk about this Buffalo Bills drama for a second? I know you've been following this.

28:00What is, what is, so Terry Pagula, their owner, it has a press conference this morning. And this is, this feels largely driven by the fact that Sean McDermott's firing really feels like he was based on the fact that McDermott got, got a little to, uh, I don't know what the word is for Pagula, which is to say that McDermott said, uh, the reason we are not getting where we're getting is because of this roster that I've been given and Pagula didn't take too well to that, did he? Uh, he certainly did not. He, this is about his public as you'll ever see, you know, a GM and an, and an ownership group come out and discuss these things, you know, especially what three days, you know, after the, the bills lose that game. And yeah, I thought it was interesting, too, that he, he was straight up asked, you know, how much did the result of the Denver game, uh, influencer decision to to let go of McDermott? And he's like, yeah, absolutely. That was a big part of it, which, look, I, I'm a little bit surprised overall, guys, at the, the pushback from, from bills fans, from NFL media in general on the McDermott

29:01firing. I, I guess I didn't really realize he was, he was that entrenched in Buffalo. Uh, you know, this idea that, you know, he's one of those coaches that if they let him go, you know, every other team would hire him. I, I guess I didn't really view him in that light, uh, you know, for a team that has had plenty of posties and letdowns. And often those games have been situations where the offense is scoring somewhere between 27 and 34 points and they're giving up somewhere between 28 and 35 points, you know, for a defensive head coach to have that many defensive letdowns in the playoffs. I didn't think there would be this much pushback on the firing, but I think to, to do it after that game where I thought one, Sean McDermott coach really well and got a ton of credit deservedly for that win over Jacksonville. And then, you know, you have an obvious, uh, if not a little bit on fair scapegoat in Josh Allen turn to the ball over five times in the Denver game, like the, the timing of it to, to essentially blame Sean McDermott for how that game went when he didn't really make any notable mistakes. I think that's what's rubbed people the wrong way. Now it seems like Keon Coleman is, is the target here. As though as though Keon Coleman working out, you know, would have completely

30:02changed the fortunes, uh, for the Buffalo Bills. I, it doesn't help that lad Makonky went with the next pick in that draft, but you look at the next two receivers taken. It was Jalen Polk in 80 Mitchell, you know, it's not like they, they passed on three Hall of Famers or something to take Keon Coleman. And I, I just, I just wonder if, if the Bills realize, like the, the reputational damage that they're doing right now, like you need a head coach. You are, right smack dab in the middle of one of the best quarterbacks in recent NFL histories prime, and you can't afford to take a step back. Like who, who is lining up right now to work with that ownership group? Yeah. Yeah. It's not, it's not a great morning. It's not a been a good look for them. And by the way, lad Makonky has not been the player. This is the past year that he was the year before. So even he doesn't look as, you know, like they, like they missed out on something as great as they might have a year ago. By the way, and I said this earlier, and Keon Coleman is listening to this bitch. I'm right here. I'm right here. I'm still on this roster. I can't believe you're, hey, hey, stop it. Okay, to the NFC championship, I'll ask you what, what the rate asked of Kelly last segment, which is, do you feel like this is the Superbowl?

31:09I do. I do. I, I said the same thing on our show on Series XM yesterday. I feel like the winner of this game and the look ahead lines would imply that as well, where you'd see, you know, the Rams or the Seahawks is three, three and a half point favorites over presumably New England. But I'm with you, go. I don't think that we can just pencil in the Patriots into that Superbowl game. I think Denver is certainly going to put forth a solid effort at home. But yeah, I think we've kind of known for most of the season that the, you know, the strength in the NFC was greater than the AFC. I think we trusted those teams. They've been more consistent throughout the regular season. So it certainly feels like the winner of this game will, at the very least, be in the caper seat to, to win the Superbowl. I'm really struggling to figure this game out. I, I stick into my priors, maybe a little too much on the LA Rams. Like I, I, I maintain that this team, if they play their best game, it's better than Seattle's best game. But yeah, as I said, on, on this channel on Monday, I just, I worry about the chances of the Rams playing their best game. You know, that seemed a lot more likely to me in week eight or week 10 or week 12, than it does right now. I worry about the special teams advantages for the Seattle Seahawks,

32:13not only in the kicking game, but obviously in the return game as well. Like basically, every single special team stat heavily favors Seattle. And we've seen that matter over and over in these closely contested games. So I, I do think we're going to get a very close game. I'm still deciding whether or not I think it will be low scoring or high scoring because we've seen, you know, both sides of the pendulum so far during the regular season. But I also think Seattle, as long as Sam Donald can avoid, maybe he can afford one killer mistake. He cannot throw more than two interceptions. And I don't think Seattle can win that game. He's thrown six so far in the two games against the LA Rams. I think it's going to be imperative for the Rams to, to turn him over because Seattle is one of very few teams that has had consistent success against this Rams defense. And especially in that second game, we saw them get the ground game going. I think this will be a Kenneth Walker spot once again, one early prop that I'll give you, by the way, Kenneth Walker over two and a half receptions. Don't mind the over 22 and a half receiving yards for him. He's got at least three catches in seven of his last nine games. And of course, the vast majority of those came with a full Zach Sharbinay went three for 64, three for 44 in the two previous

33:17matchups against the Rams. Those Zach Sharbinay and the NSC championship. I'm with you. That's a good way to put it though. The Rams A game is probably better than the Seahawks A game. It's just that we don't know if it's reliable that we'll see it. And I will say it one more time and we'll, you know, Houston was not able to capitalize on the fumbles at bad fumble luck. Just seemed like they had them both times and they couldn't, they couldn't, they didn't end up with it. The Rams were able to overcome just a brain dead performance by Sean McVeigh. Like, I don't know what he was doing for most of that game. So he's got a, he's really got to get better with being present for this one. It's a great call on special teams too, Nick. There's a huge gap here. That's right. DVOA has both the offense and defense very similar, but a massive gap and special teams, massive gap in favor of the Seahawks. I mean, like anything you look at, there's a top 10 universe of bottoms and you know, and like Sean McVeigh has been a little cavalier with it in the past two of like, and I've kind of respected this about it where it's like, yeah, offense matters the most that defense that special teams like whatever. Like, yeah, might come back to bite in the

34:19ass. Nick less 30 seconds. Any NBA tonight for me? Yeah, I'll give you a couple props that I'm looking at here. Jalen Johnson over one and a half threes going up against Memphis. They're giving up about 41 three point attempts per game. Johnson not shooting at great of late, but still taking six or seven threes on most nights. He has to be the engine of that offense. Looking at the over 10 and a half rebounds for Yannis tonight going up against OKC rivalry renewed apparently between these two teams. We just need the bucks to keep this game close enough that Yannis plays enough minutes. OKC has been arguably the worst rebounding team in the NBA with no Isaiah Hardstein. So I think this is a good spot for Yannis. And then maybe firing on Jordan pool of all people over 11 and a half points tonight sees a massive usage boost with no Isaiah Williamson. And he was added to the injury reports with an illness earlier this morning. Thank you, Nick. The numbers told the story now. It's one of those idiots who believe in analytics. This is a

35:20numbers game with Kill. I like Xander on Fieson. Aller number three of the numbers game at Fieson. These sports betting that were Fieson.com game plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, here's XM channel 158. You can really draw it out if you do it that way. Yeah, it's good. It's good. Skill Alexander. That's Kelly Biddle in everybody. My little buddy Kelly Biddle. You can follow Kelly on Twitter at Kale by the lawn. That's KELLE Y B Y D L O N. Boom. There you go. Nailed it. I'm beating I'm at beating the book. By the way, we get tweets at beating the book. Dan Groeschel as a Bucks fan. I'm appreciative of Yannis for bringing a title to Milwaukee. But if he leaves, there will be a far-of-style dead spot in my heart until the day he retires. At which point, I will resume my affection for him. That's fair. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's how you're supposed to handle it with the guys like that. And Danny Bremett. I hope I'm proud to that. Okay, Danny says I do believe Kelly should fly East in time to play with Super Dave Ross in the snow storm this weekend. Apparently, Kelly, while you complain about the weather here, people are about to get

36:23destroyed. We end up having, we had randomly coincidentally today, two guys see an Ajad earlier who lives in Northern Virginia, part of the DMV as the kids call district Maryland Virginia. And Warren Sharp set to join us now from the DMV as well. Warren, by the way, has a great deal for recent listeners this week and get all of his conference championship betting recommendations for just $25 as best bets of the week are 15 and three on the season. That's 15 and three go to sharp dot football and click the top link to get all of his plays for the weekend at a 75% discount. Warren joins us now. By the way, you can follow him. Not only at sharp dot football, a sharp football on Twitter, Warren courtesy of the progressive guest line. Warren, how you doing, man, the snow's coming, huh? It's coming the snow and the cold, which is going to make it worse now. I've been tracking this storm. It doesn't impact any NFL games, but obviously it impacts my own personal life. So trying to make sure that I'm prepared for it as best possible. But I mean, they're calling Gil for like 17 to 20 inches of snow. Potentially, you never know.

37:24They're always wrong, that seems. But a lot of snow and then for the next like week, it's supposed to not get above like 27, 28 degrees. So it's whatever's here is going to stay. Obviously, could result in power outages, could result in, you know, some issues. It's supposed to start Saturday night all day long on Sunday, leave the area Monday. I think he's going up to New York and beyond further north. But like the further south, some of those areas that aren't used to getting weather are also going to get some maybe in the form of ice. So it's pretty massive, but it does not impact either of these games, which are being played out there on the on the west coast or Denver. So does it really impact anything for the NFL? It is interesting because there's been many winter. These are one of those storms where like the people in South Florida are the only one spare where they're like, look out. We're we're genius for living here. I compared everybody else. I do want to say this before we move on though, you mentioned the thing about the weather men being always wrong. Imagine that the weather men, by the way, weather women as well, whether,

38:28whether folks who do the local news and all these cities, I brought this up from time to time. They are never does anybody ever grade their forecasts? Like it just feels like they can go 22% in terms of accuracy and yet they still can have the job forever. It is it is amazing in DC. They never get it right there. Do they? I don't know to your point, do these people get raises and promotions and just get extended if they're good on air and are just good at being where I castors as opposed to their accuracy. I wonder if like a number two or number three guy ever comes to like the boss and says, yeah, buddy, I know this guy's been here, but look at my rates. I'm like, I've cracked him. I got my own rates. I'm so much better than he is. I'm sure of a number two or three guy pointing that out to the bosses. I'm sure we're to local news for about a decade. I think we're just painted a pretty good picture of it. I know pretty boy here's great on TV, but he can't get anything right. I'm sure that happens. All right, let's do this. One by one AFC championship Patriots at Broncos in Denver at Denver. The first of the two games,

39:33three PM Eastern one PM mountain time. That's a noon Pacific for the four and a half point favored Patriots now here at circa. There's probably a little more than that five or five and a half still out there to 42 and a half is the total war. And what are your thoughts on this? Well, the first thing goes to Jared Sedum. Did we over correct from a odds micro perspective? Is there too much of a line adjustment for Jared Sedum being a quarterback? One thing we know, Sean Payton has been able to work with some less experienced guys. Another thing we know is that Sean Payton has a massive ego and loves to make guys that he brings in look as best as possible. He sometimes does it in games early in the season. If it's a player that he was pounding the table for in the NFL draft room, goes out there and gets the guy a few extra stats at the end of a game. We've been able to bet on some props that way just because Sean, this was Sean Payton's guy. He gets a little bit more work and some blowout games. But in this particular instance, I'm just curious how much they're going to adjust their game playing Gale

40:37forced it because Sean Payton certainly has confidence. He's talked them up all week. This run game, if they don't have JK Dobbins, this run game really is not built to support a team beating a team like the New England Patriots. The New England Patriots run defense is incredible. It's outstanding, especially with Milton Williams back in the fold. I don't know how much the Patriots are going to be able to run the Broncos are going to be able to run the football on the New England Patriots. We might get Stidham dropping back the pass more frequently, even if they don't want him to, because even if it's not really in the game design, it might just be something that needs to happen. As a result, you might have some upside here for Stidham to be utilizing his legs or some of these short passes. Then again, it could just be a disaster on that side of the ball. Stidham might be bad. Stidham might not have a lot of success and the New England Patriots might have the football an awful lot. And so some of their props might be undervalued. So it's an interesting way that you paint this. You sort of from a betting perspective

41:41or from a props perspective, you could try to take like a middle line, but you'll probably win more money if you decide to take a firmer stance that he's either going to be okay. And therefore, we're a lot of these Denver Broncos props are undervalued or he's going to be really bad. And therefore, we might have some upside for ball possession and time of possession for the New England Patriots. Two things. One, your dog seemed to have objected to your analysis there. Wasn't very happy with your analysis. I think we could, yep, we could go again. And then two, I love the, you're not the only one to bring this up, but be the theme, the underlying theme of this game, the Sean Peyton ego thing with Stidham that everybody secretly believes. And I think, and I think it's accurate that Sean Peyton is just loving this scenario where it's like, I get to coach up a guy who's only started four NFL games at none since 2023 into a Super Bowl. I will look fantastic. Sean Peyton, who acts like he's 147 Super Bowls, man, I actually think that's the case. How that will

42:44manifest in the game? I have no idea. But I'm with you. I don't think it should have been adjusted this much. I really don't. To the NFC championship, Rams and Seahawks, I'll start with the same question I've asked of everybody. Warren, I'll start this with you. Do you think this is the de facto Super Bowl? I don't. I think it's going to be an outstanding game. I think if you look at the way that the Seattle Seahawks have played the Rams each the last two times, I think that they probably believe they should have won both of those games. Sam Donald might have lost them both of those games with the way that he performed. And I think that the Seahawks have a lot of confidence being able to play at home with the rest, being in an environment that they know is very hostile for opponents. Now, I know this is not something like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming up here to play in the Pacific Northwest where they rarely play. This is the LA Rams. They play here once a year at minimum. But I absolutely believe that this is a game that the Seattle Seahawks have to feel very

43:47confident in their ability to have success. Now, the Rams, of course, going on the road last week, going on the road the week before, the road warriors being made an underdog finally for the first time. They didn't cover either of those two games that they were playing and winning in the first two rounds of the postseason. But I was just very concerned with the offensive theme and the style and the strategy of Sean McVeigh in that last game. I expected a lot more heavy personnel. They couldn't utilize that in their game against Caroline in the wild card round because of the way Caroline plays defense and how good they are defending play action dropback. So they adjusted their offense, played more 11 personnel shotgun style dropbacks against the Panthers. I thought they would adjust and play their more traditional 20, 25 Rams offense here in this game against the Chicago Bears, but they didn't. They kept 11 personnel spread the field using shotgun far too much and lean too much into the past. Didn't have the balance. Finally, they were able to find more success in the last half, a last quarter of the game by leaning more into the run game.

44:52And so I just don't know if I have a lot of confidence in the game planning and the strategizing for Sean McVeigh here, not to say he's one, not one of the best coaches in the NFL. Obviously, he is. It's going to be interesting that cat mouse battle between him calling plays offensively against Mike McDonald, the Seahawks defensive mastermind there. I think this is going to be a great game, but I absolutely still believe that while whoever wins this game certainly is going to be heavily favored in the Super Bowl. I do think that both of those teams in the AFC have a shot. Now, Stidum certainly less of a shot than Drake May would have, but I wouldn't doubt Mike variable with two weeks to prepare trying to come up with a game plan that keeps that Super Bowl close, especially the way that doing the Patriots start game scale. One of the best in the NFL at their early part of games, their first quarter, their first half, ATS, they're really good at that point in time. Maybe they don't get blown out early in that Super Bowl if they do face one of these teams. Just you're a matchup guy. I'm just curious. What matchup would you like to see in the Super Bowl?

45:55Probably the one that I would think would be the most compelling to me would be the Rams versus the Patriots, just to see strong defense of the New England Patriots with a quarterback that I have confidence in. I don't really want to seize Jarrett Stidum in the Super Bowl if we can avoid that. Going up against Matthew Stafford and Sean McVey, and I think that that would be a great storyline. Siox could be a great storyline as well, but I would really enjoy seeing the former matchup there, Rams and Patriots. Yeah, Rams Patriots in terms of the look ahead lines, anyway, would be the closest lined Rams favored by three currently against the Patriots with a total of 50 and a half. Warren again with his big deal over there at Sharp.Football. You click the top link to get all this place for the weekend at a 75% discount. Check it out there. Warren, thank you so much. All right, thanks for all this. Warren Sharp, everybody, at Sharp Football, the deal at Sharp.Football, where you use code at Sharp 75. We will come back. Todd Wishdevil joy to talk

47:00some college hoops with us. Money management involved. We shall discuss next on a numbers game.