Best of A Numbers Game | January 14, 2025

0:00The numbers told the story now is now swandles idiots who believe in analytics. This is a numbers game with skill. I've Exander gone visa. Good Wednesday morning to this a numbers game at visa in these sports betting network visa.com game Plus I hard radio YouTube TV. Of course, here's XM channel one fifty eight skill Alexander and the man with the majestic stride Kelly Bill. That's right on this Wednesday, as I mentioned, the Wednesday before the divisional round of the NFL playoffs and the Natty. Yeah. Oh, yeah, one more great weekend on the show today. Ward Sharple joins talk national football league Todd Wishnep. Hope he remembers. Be here a little Later on talk some in game betting with us. I talked to him yesterday. Oh, you did. Okay. I expect him to be here. He was a little Cut off guard by the the Megapod today, which is later probably because I didn't tell him that it was today. Oh, well, Probably on me. That would catch one off guard raise my hand. It's probably on me. Will Hill will join us here Bro materially give all his plays NFL divisional round weekend for the national championship as well and anything else he

1:03Might be betting. I don't know what the kids betting these days. Greg Peterson on college. Oops. Oh, that was one of those games last night Where it was just like I hate myself for not playing. It's a set on the show yesterday without a book. I'm like this is just all Your college basketball instincts tell you take Kansas. Yeah, at Fall Galen. That's dogs against undefeated Iowa state. Of course, I didn't do it because I was handicapping tennis and I just got didn't get around to it. What's kind of funny is I mean, how often do we ever talk about me Having something that same kind of feeling right when it comes to college basketball I'm usually too busy with NBA ramping up for golf season here and that stuck with me the whole day yesterday too Or I was like, Kansas. I'm also kind of obsessed with Darren Peterson though heading to heading the NBA. He's amazing. Yeah, okay. I think he's gonna be incredible in the NBA, but I had that same thought all day yesterday I was like, is she bad Kansas and then I sat there and watched most of it? No, didn't do it. Never do it for a second there That we gave the second half. It looked like I was they might make a game of it, but no, not to be And then we'll do the the whip around a little later on. We must start with everything that happened after the show yesterday in the NFL coaching

2:08I won't even call it a carousel yet because we don't really have any high rings, but Less notably Greg Roman charges offensive coordinator. Hey gone and then Kevin Batullo much to the delight of Eagles fans, including that 11-year-old that we saw in that one video Kevin Batullo relieved of his duties as offensive coordinator with Philadelphia Eagles, but the big headline of course Mike Tomlin steps down As the Pittsburgh Steelers had coach after 19 Seasons where he never had a losing season. I'm not sure any of you are aware of this stat He has never had a losing season 90 years. The only coach by law. I'm joking. Obviously the only coach That has done it for that long from the start of his head coaching career You've had a couple others that went longer with streaks Tom Landry notably 21 seasons in a row With seasons without having a losing season But Mike Tomlin from the beginning of his career 19 is the record and who knows by the way if that will ever be broken Yeah, it's an incredible record. It's an incredible record

3:08Can I can ask you a really basic betting question off the top when it comes to this or we've been joking about this for years Now in the offseason right like the under I mean I to multiple years in a row under on the wind totals And just get beat up because Tomlin and the Steelers go over every single year Do you think people are going to immediately separate themselves from that idea now as we get into next this upcoming offseason To start talking about the Steelers going forward like we always hear the Tomlin stat We always hear that attached to the Steelers. Do you think people will Translate and move that over to just these Steelers never having a losing season or they will all give Tom Like the full credit Tomlin will get the full credit. Okay. Also in a reason why he will get the full credit Which is not exactly Correct is that besides Washington they have the oldest average age Roster wise in the entire NFL. So they I mean they've they're an old team That kind of has to revamp at some point And they're old players on like Washington's are really good players. Yeah typically

4:09Um, that's a great point now. Yeah, I just find it interesting because I do I I think you're right I don't think we hear that brought up as much of this off-season, but it's not exactly correct Yeah, so so he may maybe not even justifiably but by association it would happen at the same time, I think Um, but you know in the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise and by the way, of course a long part and parcel with the 19 years straight with no losing seasons He of course had the now seven straight playoff losses the last five of which were by double digits Which is sort of what comes after the comma in the Mike Tomlin story But he but he steps down listed after 19 You know seasons who wouldn't want a team that never had a losing season I know Pittsburgh's views it differently. They've had three head coaches chuck know for 23 years who won four Super Bowls famously Bill Kauer for 15 years who won a Super Bowl and then Tomlin for 19 seasons who won a Super Bowl in his second season So that's what the Steelers are trying to now back this up with their fourth ever coach

5:09That's it in the history of that franchise and so you can bet on this Cali Billy You can bet on this who will be the Pittsburgh Steelers next coach Namely at Cal sheet is anybody else have it up at this point or is just prediction mark Just Cal sheet that I'm aware of hey way to go Cal sheet. Yep. Do your thing So I don't understand though What you just do what I texted you yesterday? I don't understand why it's all team by team and not like what's which John Harbaugh's next team right My Tomlin's next team is who's the Steelers next head coach who's the Ravens next head coach. I don't mind it I don't mind it. I saw what you yeah I understand that because we're used to seeing it both ways But at least that Cal sheet you could bet whatever you want to bet on it as opposed to being limited ridiculous on it So the the short shot and again These numbers are based on a prediction market at a prediction market on actual bets, right? So bets that come in will move. This is not some odds maker shifting around Um, Chris Shula is your short shot Yes on Chris Shula's plus 170 Chris Shula the defensive coordinator of the loss angelus Rams

6:14And perhaps more famously with that last name the grandson of the great Don Shula the winningest coach in the history of the national football league Brief parenthetical aside on this just to give you an idea about you know putting Don Shula in context Don Shula won 128 regular season games think how long we've lived with John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin Shula 1328 Tomlin 1193 and Harbaugh 1180 that is incredible That is wild that is absolutely wild. That's how legendary the coach Don Shula was with the Dolvis of Chris Shula his grandson current Rams defensive coordinator is the short shot at plus 170 followed by Brian Flores Who is the yes on Brian Flores is plus 488 Followed by Marcus Freeman who desperately wants you to think that his hairline is natural at plus 614 So I know I want to throw that in there Kurt Signetti. Please don't bet on Kurt Signetti. He's not going anywhere Stop that at nine to one and then you see a Salah the uh Niners defensive coordinator Clint Kubiak the

7:19Seahawks offensive coordinator plus 1150 and then uh former Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel plus 1150 about Flores By the way because I want to say because we bring this up all the time. Flores is the second shot behind Chris Shula Flores of course After the Miami Dolphins head coaching stint and the subsequent stuff that happened after He ended up in Pittsburgh for one year Until then the Vikings why for one year then the Vikings grabbed it was if it has coordinated He was not a coordinator in Pittsburgh He was a linebackers coach. I believe and what they called the defensive assistant So he did get they step up back to the Minnesota job So really it was the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise That was the first to say Okay, despite this lawsuit. Yes, it will take you back into the fold So so a couple of things about it. So Chris Shula. It's not just that he's Don Shula's grandson Chris Shula fits the mode uh the mold of what the Steelers Chuck Knull Bill Cower Mike Tomlin were all defensive guys who then lasted 15 years plus

8:22As the Pittsburgh Steelers head coach. So Chris Shula is a defensive guy With that NFL pedigree with a legacy anyway So it would fit in the mold of those three previous coaches Brian Flores not only was he the guy that the Steelers brought out of But we should probably because we always bring up the Brian Flores lawsuit. We never really explain it Maybe we should be thorough about it. So the Brian Flores lawsuit for those who forget who forgot about this It's still ongoing the lawsuit is a three-pronged one He sued the Giants because he said Because remember there was those Bill Belichick texts that Flores got a hold of from Belichick himself I guess where even though they were interviewing Flores They had already agreed the Giants had to hire Brian Dable. He texted the wrong guy Yeah, right? Wasn't that Belichick takes a congratulations Bryant way to go Billy Belichick So yeah, so that was so he took so he's suing the Giants based on that that his interview with them was a sham In other words that they already had their head coach He is suing the Denver Broncos because He said that their interview was a sham when John L way was running things over there

9:27where he was like they were drunk And late for my interview Whereas L way and crew their counter was Dude, we all flew in from across the country on flights And we have all these extensive notes to tell you that it was not a sham So he's so there's the Giants the Broncos and who was the third? Oh the dolphins themselves You remember perhaps most famously Steven Ross their owner He's suing because he alleged Brian Flores did that Ross Uh, would pay him a hundred thousand dollars per loss He was saying that that Ross was incentivizing him to tank as the dolphins head coach Oh, and also he wanted brought he wanted Flores He wanted him to tamper with Tom Brady and Tampa. Yes, there's a lot So there's so all those things are in the lawsuit and where the lawsuit stands is that there was a second I'll give you the latest part of it to make it quick The second court of appeals said because the dispute now in the lawsuit is where does this get adjudicated in an open court Or an NFL arbitration Flores wanted in an open court the NFL obviously wants

10:30Commissioner Goudelle to uh to adjudicate this whole thing and that's where it is now because the court of the second Circuit court said hey This should be in the open court and the NFL appealed that and now it's in the supreme court And you know how the supreme court goes they get around to it whatever they get around to it There might be more important things for the supreme court general on the list. Oh my god You know, it's my biggest thing ever. Yeah government should not be involved in solving sports disputes. It's so stupid How about the uh, I love the legalese the NFL has filed a petition for Rit or right of certiari With the United States supreme court. They should hire you And that's really I'm a certiariari. What did you say? I have no idea what that word is Certiari. So anyway, do you have any I shoe was a short shot Brian floors is a second shot plus one seventy plus forty eight Yes, Ed Calci. I have no thought. I think it's a great description on the floor Stuff though because it's something for us to keep in mind. He's an excellent coach We're gonna. Here's name brought up a lot, but like it's understandable But you you made the biggest point. Steelers were the first one to get to go against everybody and give him a shot

11:36But even before the Vikings did so he could be live there Marcus Freeman what said yesterday he's going back to Notre Dame who knows if that's true or not But I thought my Marcus Freeman insight was the most interesting part of that whole right there But they didn't get lost coming back on a numbers game with will hillback You're here because you want an edge that's what separates listeners from winners But let's be real mindset alone doesn't get bets home pros win because they've got the tools The data and the discipline and now so can you visa programs you access to the same real-time insights the sharps use No secrets no fluff just actionable info that moves markets tap the link and see why serious betters are turning knowledge into profit with visa in pro A numbers game on visa these sports betting network Back on a numbers game live from circle resort casino downtown Las Vegas Gill Alex and Kelly Bidle we get tweets beating the book John Balducci

12:38Let's name the title of the true crime show true crime murder Mata and mayhem The Bethesda row kosher killer. He says I guess the mean streets of Bethesda Prime time cowboys underscore cubs one. I'm sorry. I'm sorry Shame on stormy and JVT for their host on host hate doubting your innocence PS just admitted killer you did it do the time Three jack age three one three one. Oh, are we doing this today top five power ranking for dinner date Uh one anodarmus two anodarmus three anodarmus four anodarmus five anodarmus Of course, this would take place at gillie sushi spot Chad lasso gill has a dream an MLK day is this monday coincidence I think not gonna be a big weekend for you my friend Um his dream a little more meaningful in mind Jesse Welch quick reminder just in case Kelly managed to get out of his mind Homostakes Uh, let's bring in nick wailin because I got two things to talk to nick about above all before we get to his thoughts on Division around week nick uh joins us from roto wire where he's a senior writer over there at roto wire you can follow him on twitter at wailin just substitute the uh number one for the letter L

13:40And you will find nick courtesy of progressive guest like how you doing nick I'm doing all right guys, you know still still looking our wounds a little bit from Sunday afternoon Jacksonville of course had a chance to win that game at home against Buffalo So, you know kind of Going through the process of picking myself up off the mat and and trying to get myself fired up for a divisional round that will not include My beloved jacks. Well, that was my that was where I was gonna go to first. What yeah, I mean it was plinco, right? Like they could have easily won the football game just as uh, yeah, just as well What as you look back on at that? What was the thing you'd like to have back in that game? You know, obviously, I think you'd like jacks to be able to run the ball a little bit more than they did You know, I go back and forth on the Trevor Lawrence element You know, I did not think he was good overall in this game I thought we saw a very shaky version of Trevor Lawrence early on where you know, we threw the one interception in the first half If you watch that game it very easily could have been two or three, you know I felt like the bills were getting their hand on the ball You know every other pass for Trevor Lawrence. I think they had eight or nine passes defended

14:43In the game, which is a huge number and he was lucky to come away with only two turnovers But ultimately, you know, you had kind of the situation that you wanted right over a minute left You know your ball all you really got to do is get it close to midfield with cam little And you feel like you have a chance to get a feel goal off and maybe tie this game and send it to overtime You had the situation and you know, not only do do you not pay it off But Trevor Lawrence just immediately throws a pick on the the first possession Our first play of that final possession. I should say so it's At the same time, you know, I'm excited about the direction of this team But we also saw, you know, some regression. I thought in a huge spot For Trevor Lawrence, you know, he wasn't terrible You finished with 270 yards three touchdowns. He did lead consecutive touchdown drives at the beginning of the fourth quarter This wasn't some sort of top down disaster But man, you just knew you needed him to play a clean game in order to beat Josh Allen the way Josh Allen played Which I know the numbers were not overly flashy. He's had a lot better statistical games I thought he was completely dialed in felt like he didn't miss a throw the entire afternoon And when you have the opposing quarterback playing at that level

15:45You just can't afford to turn the ball over twice. You can't afford to be making mistakes over the middle of the field And you know for for this to be a winnable game even despite that That's what's going to stick with Jacksonville and the fact that this AFC is so wide open right? It's easy to say. Oh, they'll be back. They're moving in the right direction. That's probably true We say it about teams every single year And when you think you have some progression going for for franchise It doesn't always move that way. So it's going to take a while I think when we look back on on how the AFC is shaping up for me to get over This potential opportunity that I think the Jaguars miss. Yeah. What one moment doesn't define any NFL game But fourth and two at the Buffalo nine up seven to three That was sort of the moment to me where wherever shin was down, right? And then you and then we have to endure that ridiculous Hawkeye induced You know Hawkeye Roma was on it from the jump from the jump the moat the moment that play played out He was assuring everybody that that shin was down and he was all

16:45Correct. Yeah, you're right. You're right though. I mean, and that came after the fumble on the kickoff return Right like those that's the break that you absolutely absolutely need to capitalize on yes And you know, I can understand why they went for it Liam Cohen said he would make that decision 100 out of 100 times I understand it. It's easy to say now. Oh, you should have just taken the points But man, that would have swung things right? I mean to put the bills in a 14 to three hole to press Josh Allen a little bit I think you're right to point that out as kind of the turning point to probably the biggest missed opportunity for Jacksonville All right Also, and then they gave them the second at the end of the first half So you've got a cam little field. We'll try and he missed it Oh, yeah, plus the office matters. Yeah, no always always matters those kicks before half. Yeah, man What could have been well, I don't mean to torture you with it anymore. Let's go through these one by one real quick Buffalo. Sorry to start there at Denver. What are you doing with this? Yeah, well, it's interesting You know, of course Buffalo opened as a road favorite and pretty much immediately That is flip now to to Denver minus one and a half. That's what I'm seeing now at the at the DK sportsbook

17:47I I expect Denver to put forth a better defensive effort Certainly than we saw from Jacksonville I think that was another takeaway for me. We could talk about Lawrence all we want But this Jaguar's defense that had been so good throughout the season It just felt like you know third and four third and six third and eight was just automatic You know wide open receivers in those spots over and over. I would think Denver, you know We'll put up a better fight on the defensive side You know, Sean Payton comes into this game with with an extra week to prepare You know, obviously, you know, Denver even in week 18 They played some starters, but kind of had a walkover game against the chargers So I expect them to to put forth, you know, a much better all-around effort than Jacksonville did I do look at this as a potential under spot though at 45 and a half because how do you trust the Denver Broncos offense? You know, we've seen flashes every now and then you think about that second half against the giants Yeah, that was probably their best offensive stretch of the entire season But on balance we've seen a lot more games where Denver just can't get anything going You know, they're trying to ride the running game. They're not ripping off explosives whatsoever So I look at this as a spot where we're both defenses kind of control the game

18:50You know, whether it shouldn't be too much of a factor But I would not expect Josh Allen to be able to play at quite that same level that we saw Last week against Jacksonville and worth noting he was banged up multiple times in that game He's gonna play through it. It's Josh Allen even him at 70% is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL But uh, the hits are starting to add up for Josh Allen. He's indestructible, but yes, you are correct Um, what is your biggest lean of the whole weekend? Let me just ask it broadly Yeah, that's a good question. I mean I To be honest, I there's not one that I absolutely love Right now, you know, I'm a little wary of San Francisco Seattle just because it's the third meeting Between those teams, you know, tough number at seven and we've seen Seattle mess around in the first half especially offensively So many times, but you do wonder if the injuries are just at a breaking point for the 49ers right now You know, I know Fred Warner is you know, potentially going to be activated for this game. We'll see I wouldn't count on that necessarily being the case and you don't want to you know extract too much from one game

19:53But I think you look at the final score in week 18 and you think oh, so yeah, they didn't really play very well offensively I thought the Seahawks left at least 13 points and you can argue as many as maybe 17 or 20 points on the board in that game You know some some killer mistakes some special teams mistakes. They went out on downs After a long drive where they were moving it effortlessly in the first half I mean, you have to give credit to the 49ers and Robert Salah for the way they played defensively against Philly But how much of that is on the Eagles for just being the Eagles, right? They answered definitively that this offense is not back that beating the Raiders and beating the commanders and putting 13 points on the bills down the stretch Was not the turnaround that we thought it might be for this offense So as much as I would like to see San Francisco show up and compete in this game I think there is a chance that you know by halftime we look back and say man They're they're just too battered to go on the road and win again I mentioned that there were two things I wanted to talk to you about one was the Jaguars Of course, because you're noted Jaguars fan the other is I know your Bucks guy Last night The Bucks are Bucks are losing by 30 at the half last night to the to the T wolves and they're booing the Bucks off the court

21:00And then the third quarter the third quarter begins and the Jaguars has an and one and he thumbs down the I think that's a verb thumbs down the The Bucks crowd this after professing Kelly was saying off air to professing his love for the Milwaukee crowd Yeah, he was getting some booze early in the game where the team was What should they do with the honest at this point is it over? Yeah, well, it's worth mentioning one that the Bucks were favored at home last night The Timberwolves did not have Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert was suspended and they still Dominated that game from start to finish Look, I am a Bucks fan. Obviously, honest means the world to this franchise It's been an incredible run, you know, since he became the player that he is now I have long been of the belief that they should just bite the bullet and trade Yannis I think it's best for both sides at this point You know, it's clearly to me what Yannis wants and he is kind of following the Kevin Garnett in Minnesota Damien Lillard in Portland Script of you know, I'm kind of scared to be the bad guy. I clearly want out. There are there are reports behind the scenes

22:01Indicating that that's the case, but then every time he's asked about it He walks it back and says no, what are you talking about me? No, I would never want to leave them Milwaukee Bucks I the Bucks have done everything they possibly can Over the last few years to surround Yannis with a title contender This is not one of those situations where if and when he does move on you look back and say man What could have been because they've tried everything they tried everything I love the Damien Lillard trade everybody loved it at the time It just didn't work out Yannis got hurt Middleton got hurt Lillard himself of course got hurts And you got the ring, you know, you got the ring in 2021 ultimately that's what matters I think that's what kind of gives him the agency to be able to move on without this being some sort of massive rift that Yannis and his camp seem to believe it will be so It's kind of a standoff between both sides because the Bucks clearly don't want to lose him Yannis clearly doesn't want to be the bad guy It might ultimately have to be on the Bucks at some point to look themselves in the mirror and say Where are we going right now with this this Yannis and nobody else around him court See wolves win that game by 33 by the way 139 to 106 it's sad

23:04Nick always a pleasure man. Sorry about the Jags, but thank you for coming on appreciate it Appreciate the condolences guys. Thank you Nick. Well, and everybody courtesy the progressive gas line some sodium open chatter from Kelly next The golf season begins on a numbers game The numbers told the story now is now swandles idiots who believe in analytics This is a numbers game with Gill. I like Xander gone V sent our number three of a numbers game at Vs In these sports betting network Vs in dot com game plus ihard radio YouTube TV series XM channel 158 Gill Alexander Kelly Bidlin alongside we got to do more of those golf antennas Yeah, some good ones up. Yeah, and I'm assuming they're going to be pulled down pretty quickly here with golf starting tomorrow Oh, and I got to sign up for the Rick run good. Yeah, Rick run good one and done today from Rick gaming at Where's that splash sports dot com? Yeah, okay. We'll do that And Todd wish and I've still to come this hour. We we have warned sharp standing by we get tweed speed in the book Just want to read a couple mariners geek listening on On delay he says imagine how good you have to be at coaching when you're suing three teams and are still highly coveted

24:08Yes, I've been talking about Brian Flores. Yes, great point as we were mentioning earlier went through the whole lawsuit Ray Joseph can you guess the last duo to win both MVP and offensive player of the year while playing on the same team Oh, this is a good question. Oh Man No back in the day They used to win both of them like one guy would win both of them You're right. So I think like Joe Thysman and 83 and like Joe Montana 89. I mean, I say I Kurt Warner and Marshall Falk Greatest show. Oh, yes, that's a good one. Has anybody done that since then would be my guess. I don't know that that's a well That I definitely remember that they both won those two. I'm not gonna look. I'm gonna try to I'm gonna try to think of some options here Well, you while you're talking. I don't know if he's gonna tweet us back with the actual answer I could be lying. Maybe I'll eventually Google it too. Who knows speaking of coaching We had a good conversation with Warren Sharpe last week about Coaching maneuvers and his thoughts on the at that down John Harbaugh had just Been removed as the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens

25:11Let's talk some coaching and beyond with these divisional round games with Warren Sharpe who joins us now at Sharp footballs Where you can find him on Twitter? courtesy of the progressive guest line once again Warren somewhere in his lab is home lab in the DMV. I don't war I'm doing great Excited for these divisional round games. I think they're going to be a lot of fun I said last week though entering last week's game Maybe on your show in fact you'll that I was looking forward to the wild card more than I ever had before Because I didn't really see that you know top tier elite team We don't have two teams the best in each conference coming back from a buy like we did in the past It's just one in each conference nothing really separating those two teams night and day above the rest of these Sure enough last week's games were outstanding Hopefully we can live up to some of that here in the divisional round as well Hopefully we can before we get into that We were talking coaching you and I last week when Steve Bishadi fired John Harbaugh I am curious how you feel about a couple days. Let's start with the Eagles and no more Kevin Patula. What do you think about them?

26:15Well, that was inevitable to me you have to move on from Kevin Patula So I saw a lot of people really on on social yesterday getting excited about that that to me was like the bare minimum of what was going to happen It should have happened during the season. It should have never happened in the first place He wasn't qualified to call plays and that's the problem with some of these internal hires the Eagles now have to go mercenary style Just like they did when they won the Super Bowl in 2023 and sorry 2024 and go outside the building and get somebody in there for a coordinator But more than that. I just don't see why Nick Seriani is still there to me Nick Seriani is the reason we had Kevin Patula Nick Seriani is the reason that the Eagles completely wasted the 2025 football season And I just never viewed Jeffrey Lurie as the type of owner who would stand for that type of process issue That's a process driven issue the Eagles didn't lose this game this game yesterday or the

27:16You know Fail to make it back to the Super Bowl because of injuries But because of anything but their own internal decision-making and strategization for games as well as Their use of their quarterback. I mean, I could just tell you this if Jalen Hertz Refuses to run and does not want to run and wants to be a pocket passing quarterback The Eagles are not going to win another Super Bowl. They're just not he is not a good enough pocket passing quarterback to sit back there without the threat of a Run game on almost every single dropback you don't have to run every single dropback But you have to be willing to take those open run lines if you're just transitioning into being a pocket passing quarterback It's not going to work for Jalen Hertz to command that type of salary and to get the ceiling that he's gotten in the past with the Philadelphia Eagles So I still have concerns about what Jalen Hertz is willing to do with his likes I still have concerns with what Nick Seriani is bringing from a process perspective to the building So yes, I think that they need to go outside the building get a new OC and call some plays that are a bit more aggressive and

28:16But there are just too many drawbacks here with this team right now for me to really think that this is like a Potential Super Bowl favorite in 2026 despite the fact that We see a great roster for that team. I mean how he does a great job building an outstanding roster for this team But they do have limited limitations in my opinion Yeah, I wonder if Jalen Hertz will defy the old numbers game thing that I've said for many years Which is you can only win a Super Bowl with a quarterback over performing on a rookie deal or a Hall of Famer I wonder if Jalen Hertz becomes a glaring exception To that rule and the other thing that's interesting about Seriani is with Harbaugh and Tomlin now no longer with the Ravens and Steelers Immediately we hear about well. I mean John Harbaugh, where's you know? He's calling his shot where he's going next Mike Tomlin probably a year or however many doing TV Maybe he can call his shot if he wants to come back We don't ever hear that about Seriani right. It's the opposite It's sort of like if Nick Seriani wasn't the Eagles coach tomorrow Would he have any suitors at all which is a fascinating juxtaposition?

29:21You always have to look at it from the opposite perspective like if you're calling a play like the Buffalo Bills down at the goal line And and if the Jaguars want you to score that means you probably shouldn't be trying to score down there at the goal line And if nobody really wants Nick Seriani if nobody would be like lining up to call Nick Seriani to become their head coach Should he really stay on board as your head coach? Like should you really be driving to make that happen one other coaching thing? We have nine openings now so more than a quarter of the league I'm just gonna pick the one that we've talked about the least the Titans Brian Dable interviewing there. What do you think about that? Yeah, Dable interviews down there Friday and There was a lot of love for Cam Ward The giants lost their opportunity to get cam ward by winning another Meaningless Week 17 game in 2024 that screwed up their ability again. They still got their guy in Jackson dart a little bit later on in the draft But you know, we saw some of the pre draft stuff with cam ward. We know Brian Dable really likes working with cam ward and

30:23There were some limitations that the Tennessee Titans had last year in a variety of positions But they weren't utilizing cam ward. I think to the Best degree possible and if you have a quarterback that you drafted number one overall Your next head coaching hire needs to be somebody who is going to work with that quarterback and get him to reach his ceiling And I've talked on visa before about what I saw from Brian Dable when he was working with Jackson dart And when Jackson dart was going up against five straight playoff caliber defenses and performing extremely well Outperforming the NFL averages from a yards per attempt you through seven touchdowns only one interception in those games They almost went to Denver if you guys remember this earlier this season Jackson dart and the New York Times almost beat the Denver Broncos in Denver It took a comeback from the Denver Broncos late to win that game That was the game. I think came scataboo injured himself in as well. So you know There were some upside with what Brian Dable was doing with Jackson dart for periods of time Now there are some drawbacks as well and those need to be you know

31:26Course corrected in the future But I do think he would be a fascinating prospect to work with a quarterback like cam dart I cam ward you have to get a coach though who is going to be willing to Just raise the ceiling of cam ward and build everything around making cam ward great and there are some parallels the It's it's not it's not apples apples by any means but a A bigger quarterback who is a little bit physical who could push the ball down the field who is also Can be coached into being a little bit mobile mean Dable's work with Josh Allen before as well I'm not suggesting cam ward is Josh Allen light or anything like that But there's some similarities in some degrees. I think Dable could be an intriguing higher down there So I'm interested to see how how things work with them But like you said there are so many great prospects from a coaching perspective I wouldn't call any of them sure fire like elite coaches They're historical figures They're going to have success with the team because they know what to do and they know the type of coordinators

32:27Just surround themselves with them. They know the type of process But it's not like we're getting some sort of up-and-comer Ben Johnson type coach I did think the last point on this was Bishaddi's comments yesterday about what he's looking for in a Coaching higher potentially for the Baltimore Ravens and how he's sort of looking for a coach who Was a upcoming coach a few years ago who went to a bad team because there was an opening and didn't have a lot of success There there's a few guys that you can look around the league and say hey This sort of fits the bill for what he's talking about and I actually do think that that's a great Especially in the 2026 cycle. That's a great way to look at things It is about as as well thought out as any I would say okay to the games this weekend You were telling me off air you don't have a side or a total or a prop yet you haven't dived in yet to these But what's the one that intrigues you the most of these four matchups? Well, if you just look on the surface the two games on saturday You've got an offensive mind ahead coach versus a defensive mind ahead coach And then the two games on sunday you've got two defensive mind ahead coaches going head-to-head

33:31in the Houston new England game and you got two offensive mind ahead coaches going head-to-head in the latter game And all the totals are sort of reflecting that right the lowest total is the defensive mind Coaches going head-to-head highest total is the offensive mind and coaches going head-to-head the other two You got a defensive mind a versus an offensive mind ahead coach Book singing on that deep battle of the defense of mind ahead coaches, you know what we saw from C.J. Stroud last week Monday night Obviously nothing to write home about certainly a performance where he looked a little frazzled a little rattled You would think if you're now going on the road to take on mike raples defense You're going to want to be careful about how you're utilizing C.J. Stroud lean into the run Try to make it so that you don't turn them all over and lose the game Early on in that game for the Houston Texans and then you know This Houston Texans defense looks like it can win games. It's outscoring opposing offenses in the playoffs So if you're the drake may lead new England Patriots you also have to be Oh, but careful with how you're executing things here because the game could flip on a dime with that defense

34:34Sure kid and I I grew through that Houston Texans defense capable of winning games As long as they get average performance from C.J. Stroud right Just that's the big baseline. Right, you know Can't be what it was the other night though. Good God Warren always a pleasure. Enjoy the week. Appreciate it, man. All right Thanks guys Warren sharp everybody at sharp footballs where you can find all his stuff sharp dot football Sharp analysis dot com's got all of that For more coming back Todd wish that oh boy College basketball and more. It's a numbers game at visa these sports betting network You A numbers game on fee said these sports betting network numbers game lie from circa go Alexander Kalei by the line in the hizzie uh lazy gentleman You may know lots about this next guest including that he is the star of showtime's docu series action

35:38From a from which he was plucked out of a crowd to star in True is a Southpoint producers are like who's that guy? He's something. He's loud and funny What you may not know about him is that he's one of the top 10 ATP ranked Players in the world in tennis 300 pounds or over division Todd wish to have star of wish never Wednesdays And later today much to his surprise the megapod it's Todd from Pittsburgh PA How you doing man courtesy the progressive guest line was added You just love changing the date on the megapod every single week It's like oh Wednesday wait. No Tuesday. Wait. Let's throw it in the grab back Friday Thursday Tuesday Yeah, well we target that wind studios tough to get into toddy studio dependence not me Um, let me just ask you about this uh real quick here before getting anything else You have the rare NFL pre flop of bet is that correct No, no, I said college basketball. Oh college basketball the rare pre flop I'm sorry. He went out to our ear right as we got on air rare pre flop. He knew normally it's live betting. What's the pre flop today?

36:44Um, I played first half under I'm actually going to put it on my thing right now before everyone screams at me because I didn't put it up in time Um, I played Cincinnati. I played Cincinnati under first half um Cincinnati is a classic under team this year. You've got a terrible offense and a good defense like kind of like they were last year as well But um, those are you know classic classic under teams that they're eighth on defense So they're elite defensively in the country. Okay number eight. That's pretty damn good, right? But they're only 205th on offense. That's pretty damn bad So tonight they're playing Colorado not exactly a defensive juggernaut and the numbers a little bit You know up there because Colorado likes to run and everything, but um, you know if they can put the clamps on Colorado's offense first half under to me uh smells pretty good So I took it under 71 first half Oh, do you regret so you're not a pre flop guy typically? Do you regret like I do not take in Kansas yesterday plus the points?

37:48Because that seemed like the perfect situation and I hate myself for not playing it Yeah, that definitely was a perfect situation. I I kind of still like to to play in game I mean a perfect example of why I like playing in game yesterday was Providence against Villanova uh, you know, Willie was talking about on the thread how he liked Providence at home and I kind of agreed with him Uh pregame getting two points But I figured out let me watch the game maybe they'll get behind and and I can get a juicer your number and that's almost exactly what happened They got down six in the first half and I I could get plus six and a half minus 120 and I took it Of course they ended up going down 12 But they ended up only losing by six so ended up winning because of you know waiting for the in-game scenario So you know, I just feel like in these college games, you know What you really gained by betting pregame? It's the only time you really lose in that scenario is like what happened with Kansas last night where they just Ran out to a huge lead and there was no opportunity But I feel there's way more opportunities when you wait

38:48You know to get you even to get a better number on something you like pregame Let's talk about the in-game for a second So famously you were just scorching on fire whatever expression you want to use Uh in-game college hoops 130 units to the positive and again, these are not these are not my wife was I was up behind I was up Finish the thought Todd. We're getting there. Sorry. I'm sorry not multi-unit bets These are all flat one unit bets. He's up 130 and it has cooled off now, right as you're as you yeah, we're quick to say there Any explanation was this inevitable? Is this the time of year that it is most likely to happen? What's your whole take on that? I really don't think so I just think that you know when you run that hot For that long. I mean for 800 bets. I was like 62% it was ridiculous It was almost like it was like 500 and 300 and 800 bet you're ultimately you're gonna have to slow down Sooner and I kept telling me why I say you guys this is not sustainable winning 62% It's just ridiculous, you know So, you know, I'm not surprised. I mean, I was as high as 129 units and now and then I was as low as 110 now

39:54I'm right around 117 So, you know, it was inevitable. It was gonna be a slowdown But I don't really think it's I know we're in conference play, but you look the numbers are still the numbers They're slowing the game down a little bit, but that's gonna be reflected in the numbers as well, you know So, but there's no there's no behavioral things that the ends of games where coaches have shifted the way they like There's no foul fests all of a sudden. They're still playing it the same way I mean you see crazy stuff even before I mean there was a game the team was down 13 I think Illinois was down 13 in November and they were fouling in the last 30 seconds Because they couldn't believe they lost the game So, I just think it it just depends on the team. It depends on the situation. You know I don't really think it has anything to do with that But you know there are some really nice scenarios now especially for once you really understand who the teams are because at this point We know who teams are, you know Michigan state is a defensive jug or not, okay? So, you watch the first half of the game yesterday. They're playing Indiana

40:57I think it was 3932 at the break or something like that. I'm like This is a classic Michigan state that a strangle them on defense in the second half And it's exactly what happened for actually Indiana scored a ton of points early in the in the first half up till about the 11 minute mark. They had 21 points already So I thought I was in trouble then of course, Indiana goes six minutes with no points So when you you can find these scenarios another one a good one at halftime last night was Clemson Another really good defensive team if you configure out teams. This is for like halftime Really good defensive teams who are winning like at home and you you It looks like it's forecast for a double digit win. They're going to strangle the hell out of the different out of the of the other team Another example like I said was Clemson BC last night especially in games that were played slow in the first half There's no reason for them to speed up in the second half I mean unless the game gets way out of control becomes open gym, but I'm saying you know you're up six seven points

41:58You know Boston College. I believe they were losing 39 27 something like that Clemson's just going to strangle the hell out of them. They're not going to score You know, so and even last night on one I lost St. Mary's was on the road at San Francisco up 4228 at the half and I played San Francisco under 65 and a half not that they wouldn't get another 37 and a half point Typically that's a game St. Mary's just strangles the life out of you what happened San Francisco scored every possession and I still had a chance at the end because they went cold from like the Five-minute mark to the one-minute mark a guy hit a three with 45 seconds to beat me But the point that I'm trying to make is if you can find good defensive teams that are winning at halftime They're and they're playing slow They're unlikely to allow that other team back into the game with a high scoring second half What it's I've never asked it off you this way, but as you because you have over a thousand people who are following your picks What is the the thing that you have noticed the most as the

42:59I don't want to use the word complaint because that overstates it But what's the thing that they sort of miss out on those is the fact that they don't have enough outs to play some of these That they played about of not getting the number that you're giving out because it's an in-game. What what is the answer to that? Yeah, I would say that that's the that's the biggest thing You know, you have to have at least three or four outs to check at these commercials to see you know to get your best in-game Number and then a lot of people don't have the late games because a lot of the books will shut down that the late game Close game under at the like five or six minute mark and you can't get those four minute ones So you got to find books that have that you know who are who are laying them like fandals laying them all the way down You know like two and a half minutes sometimes they know of course. It's hard. It's hard to get a bet off at fandall But the you know for any decent amount of size, but the the You got to just find more books that that have stuff you know and and they're out there But they're they're they're not as you know widely available some people like they're in Florida Oh, we have his hard rock and book. I'm like, okay. Well, there's nothing I can do. I'm doing this for all everyone

44:02Not just for you, you know, but that is I was I was saying I was because I was talking about your stuff a couple weeks ago And I was saying that's the thing you learn about Haven't you have to have the multiple outs and then you will learn as you do this Which outs offer which kinds of bets and which at certain limits? And so you you start to figure out where the go-tos are on on all these different kinds of bets Some people won't offer team totals at halftime, right? You know some people don't know for the late bets and that's a great example The team totals is a great example because not everybody has the team totals. Yeah Okay, and then Just to talk about Kansas yesterday Crushing Iowa State. I asked this of Greg Peterson earlier in the same way that I asked Matt Cox about Michigan Having lost to Wisconsin Are you worried at all about Michigan and on how an Iowa state now being knocked out from the ranks of the unbeaten Or do you still think they are top of the heap both of those both of those squads? Yeah Or is or and what about Vandy and and Nebraska who are undefeated do you treat them seriously as title contenders?

45:05I really like Vanderbilt a lot As far as the other teams go. I mean remember you caught in the first year They lost like four out of six in the middle of January, February These teams are going to lose games on the road and good conferences. It happens, you know These are good teams on the road So that doesn't surprise me at all You know if it this goes on for you know six weeks and I'll all be concerned You know, but I still think those those teams are still really really good and You know Vanderbilt I love Vanderbilt as although they Hit me on Saturday had over 88 and half on a pregame team total and they had 53 at the half somehow couldn't get home But you know in general Vanderbilt has been very strong. Who's the team that conventional wisdom that most people aren't thinking of that you think could win a title realistically What's like the lowest Team on the total bowl that you think has a shot legit If they get on the run I don't know maybe Florida Well Florida nobody really seems to be talking about okay. Yeah um I mean I wouldn't put them in my tops, but you know and low-energy Todd Wishn

46:07Everybody who's still fighting off a cold. I'm dude. I'm still fine. This sickness. I mean. I'm trying my best out here Going back on a numbers came at me since Oh You know I mean I wouldn't put them in my tops, but you know and low-weather G Todd Wishn. Everybody who still fighting off a cold. I'm dude. I'm still fighting this sickness. I mean I'm trying my best out here. Come in back. On a numbers came at me since it's