Ben Rhodes: Is Trump Stumbling into a Wider War?

0:00Hello and welcome to the Bullwork Daily. I'm your host Tim Miller. I'd like to welcome back to the show, Deputy National Security Advisor for Barak Hussein, Obama and co-host of Pod Save the World. His latest book, All We Say, The Battle for American Identity, was released earlier this year. It's Ben Rhodes. What's up, man? Hey Tim, good to see you. It's good to see you as well yesterday at the beginning in this little intro. I said the Trump of a kind of quiet this week. I'd say I'm on. We did a lot of silly stuff. By the time the show aired, he was already renaming lakes again. Yeah. I don't even know that it's worth talking about it. He's such a loser and it's so embarrassing. But that did happen between the taping and the airing yesterday. The Canadians have a former head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada who's like methodically and rigorously in his own hand

1:02probably going through the terror that he's going to reimpose on us. And Trump with his own hand is just drawing on lakes and renaming things as usual. Yeah, expanding the area of the hurricane. I liked how Karney really mauged us with the use of the word hydronims in his statement. Trump is obsessed with hydronims. And I was like, all right, well, I, Trump certainly doesn't know that word. I had to Google it. It's good. It's good. It's good usage. You get to go to the source. Yeah. Mark Karney's like a welcome to source, man. Like we we're not in fighting someone our way class in the trade war here. So a bunch of domestic politics talking about at the end on your sub stack notes on the stories we tell you've had two good ones in the last two weeks that touch on things that affect me resistance one discourse and hatred of NS canter. So we will get. Yeah. Yeah. But I got to start with foreign policy, you know, your expertise. I guess we'll tie this NS canter. I want to do the Brian Wynn horse thing about connecting dots on a couple of stories I've been reading in the news.

2:09You actually have sources you talked to him wondering what you think about all this. So see I direct your visits Moscow. The Wall Street Journal reports that depletion of our weapons stocks in the Iran war could be motivating Putin to consider making a move on NATO. The NATO Secretary General has a meeting with US under Secretary Elbridge Colby, which is a little unusual US intel we've seen these reports for a while now warning Eastern European countries about Russia plans to test NATO. It was a leak of a letter that three Baltic commissioners sent to the EU president about a deteriorating security environment and increased frequency of airspace violations in the Baltics. And the sun tabloid has cremated inside or sparing Putin it was prepared to drop a tactical nuke. So, you know, I'm tying like Elbridge and Ratcliffe in the warnings and it feels kind of like the lead up to the Ukraine war when a lot of people are like not taking that that seriously and are intel people are like no really like this is happening. I don't know what do you think about all that.

3:09Yeah, and I've been talking to people, you know, in Europe and some of the people kind of worked on these types of things over the last decade. And I think there is a feeling that there's rise and concern that Russia could do something in Europe that could take different forms. One is like a direct attack on European soil targeting places where they manufacture, you know, some of the drones and rockets that are going deep into Russia, the, you know, the Russian idea being, okay, if you're giving them the weapons that are hitting places like Moscow and St. Petersburg, then we have a right to attack the factory in Germany that is producing that. There's lesser things they could do that they've been doing sabotage operations like there have been fires said in Europe, there have been things blowing up in Europe. The drones that that German air of the German air base? Yeah, drones just shown up. They could also just begin a more aggressive version of what they did in Ukraine and one of the Baltic states or Moldova. You know, there was a great story recently at times about like literally Russian training camps, dudes with like guns and preparing sabotage operations in Serbia, ostensibly for Moldova.

4:19You had NATO undertaking kind of military exercises to kind of show, you know, some deterrence. But yeah, I think it is a tenuous time. And there is a feeling that as Russia is kind of on the back foot here because of the Ukrainian drone capability that one way they might lash out is by the way they might be able to do something. And that one is by trying to impose a cost on Europe and test whether their NATO lines can respond to it. I want to do flashbacks of how we got here. And there's a really embarrassing axiast story from March about the Trumps. I'm a certain that's lack of preparations. I want to talk about. But like even going back to Biden, as you sit here now, like does it feel like we were outlaying World War III concerns and underway how much we could have been helping Ukraine. You know, kind of given where we are now. And it seems like we might be walking into. I mean, not World War III in like the nuclear sense, but like, you know, an increasingly globalized conflict anyway. Yeah, I worry about two things. The increasing globalized conflict, right? The way in which this comes together with the war in Iran, the closer collaboration between Russia, China and North Korea, Iran as against the United States and Europe.

5:32I also just worry about something that doesn't like look like World War III, but there's just kind of creeping violence into Europe, you know, like more and more of these sabotaging drone strikes cyber attacks and reprisals on Russia. And it's not right to tactical nukes, but we're just learning to live with more and more and more violence and conflict. You know, on this one, as someone who's been willing to second-guess the Biden administration on things, they had a tough fucking problem here. I think in retrospect, and again, I say this with empathy that this is not easy to deal with at the time, there were kind of two paths that might have been able to have been taken. Like, one is kind of a premised question, hey, we're not that concerned that Putin's actually going to use nuclear weapons and we're really going to start pouring more and more weapons and as fast as possible to give the Ukrainians advantage. Another is, frankly, if you look at the contours of the front line, it's not that dissimilar from where it was pretty early on in the war, like after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.

6:36And so the other road not taken might have been like, what would it have looked like and it might not have worked, to kind of really drive towards a negotiated settlement earlier, like beginning in like 2023. Now, the Ukrainians didn't necessarily want that, but the reality is, but concerns me, is it where this thing ends up is probably not going to be that dissimilar from where it could have ended up if somehow you've been able to do that then and meanwhile a lot of people have died. I can sense that hippie roads is more interested in a negotiated settlement path. Well, I'm intrigued by the weapons. Yeah, well, I hear you on the weapons. I think the natural security people I've been in all these meetings, you tend to take the middle option. That's not going to anything else. It's like back when I was in PR and you had a client, you're like, we're going to give you a crazy option or like a very conservative option. Yeah. So we've been kind of living with the middle option for years now. And the Ukrainians, by the way, have broken out of that because they're drone manufacturing basically is the more like aggressive weapons option.

7:38And they're actually having some success with that to your point. So I think that that does bear some scrutiny, but we'll see where it goes. Speaking of past on taken, this is the aforementioned March story about drones. This is my guy Mark Caputo that broke this Ukrainian officials tried to sell the US their battle prove in technology for downing Iranian made drones. They made a PowerPoint presentation showing how it could protect American forces and their allies in the Middle East war. Trump administration dismissed the Ukrainians only to eventually reverse course a little while ago. Yeah, it's like that that is a miss that has like some like a ton of implications actually it has a ton of implications because the first point is in to you know 10 Ivan Takamits and Leslie, but like everybody you talked to in the Middle East is like the damage to these US bases in facilities far worse than, you know, you know, or being told. I mean, we took some hits that we might not have taken. Have we moved more aggressively to adapt this Ukrainian technology. I think the other important lesson going forward, that is like you innovate on the battlefield. The Ukrainians have been in it for years and they made breakthroughs in both offensive drone technology and in defenses.

8:51And my sense to him is that like at the same time that the Pentagon is shoveling massive contracts at the door to like Don Jr's drone company. And we're building like the world's most expensive drones. What the Ukrainians and the Iranians have shown is that like you can make pretty cheap Jones in your garage that are like more effective like smaller drones swarming or more effective than like the battle star Galatica being designed in Silicon Valley. You know, or Don Jr's company that is getting like no big contracts. And so I do think that there's a you know the hippie and me who but who also realizes natural securities necessary is like hey we could probably say some money on the defense budget by you know embracing some of the technology that the Ukrainians have innovated on the battlefield rather than you know giving Don Jr. a blind check a lot of talk from the Silicon Valley guys you know it's like Palmer lucky that Andrew will guide how great that they're going to do to help us militarily. I had lunch with them once and he picked his nose and ate it and so maybe that should have been a warning. Maybe these guys weren't as good as they seem.

9:54What is clear is Ukrainians are the best in the world at this right now. And like this gets the future of Ukraine's defense but they need this like on the back end of the war as they're part of their deterrence right and we'd be dumb not I mean I assume the Trump like you just doesn't like Ukraine. So he's probably like I'll get out of here with the technology now and that that's a big miss. Yeah and now this is impact and kind of the nexus of all this right I mean you know who knows Russia. The Iranian president and and Putin are being next week. At the Shanghai cooperation organization summit in in Kyrgyzstan they're talking about like nuclear energy production and sharing. But who the hell knows what else they're talking about and I do think that like the depletion of our patriots is kind of informing like different tactical options for for both Russia and Iran and you know in both wars that were entangled in. Yeah and you know I mean on the far end of risk of potentially Taiwan right I mean because you know the window that people who worry about Taiwan worry about is the second half the Trump administration right when the US is probably at low point in terms of global standing.

11:12Yeah distracted by me yeah God willing seriously. Yeah allies are divided. Trump Jr. administration at 29 you know we maybe we haven't we've been able to see the bottom for hair. Yeah that's a good point that's a good point. So yeah I mean it's never good at a time of heightened global conflict and active wars to be running out of munitions particularly defensive ones which need to protect your allies. We talked about this a couple times ago. You're on and your your previous book after the fall. And you know a lot of that is like reflective of us and you know kind of the mistakes of the American led world order and things we could have done differently but another part of it is like fears of what. Yeah a different led world order would look like and why it's so important that we do better. And as we're sitting here now and you wrote that what eight years ago it's been a long time. Seven years ago and we're sitting here now and the like prospect of a China led world order is feeling even more likely.

12:13Yeah then it did when you wrote that book and I'm just kind of curious kind of how you see. Sort of the China interplays and stands today. I think it is more likely because their strategy for Trump has been to kind of punch him back in the face when he picks on them but meanwhile like kind of quietly go about building their own parallel world order. And so as Trump is you know pissing everybody off with his tariffs. The Chinese are there to say hey look you know you may not like the terms of your deals with us but at least you know what the terms are and they don't change you know Mark car and you had this line. That the US now makes deals in pencil not pen the Chinese make deals in pen and guess where Mark car he's going he's going to go to China. That's one thing the AI of it all like at the US is building the most expensive AI in the world we've got Claude we've got chat GPT. But what most countries want is like cheaper open source models that can create efficiencies robots seduce it you know industrial efficiencies and I think we're going to look up in a couple years and there might be these giant IPOs for.

13:15You know and then there are a lot of institutions they're kind of belt road initiative institutions are just kind of spreading out they're getting pretty almost near dominance on certain critical minerals. Trump despite all this talk about that is not really done anything about it so yeah I think we're beginning to see the outlines of about not a Chinese dominated one but. Let's just say in a fractured world order a place where the Chinese are potentially a stronger position than the United States and everything Trump is doing is literally just driving countries into the arms of the Chinese and and in the long run to him like and the dollars reserve currency is one of the ultimate targets of the Chinese and they don't want to get there tomorrow because it be too disruptive but you know the the moment in which the world starts to move away from the dollar our standard of living becomes impossible where are all the China hawks a criticize you it's kind of funny it's funny to go back to the thing. Six months ago in the Iran were started some of the right wing hawks you're seeing this like galaxy brain Twitter threads that how Trump is doing 40 chess and this really isn't even about Iran it's about China you know it's about solidifying our power and boy that doesn't look very good what could say thought it was like this kind of board game where we were going to like take the Iranian oral somehow and take it away from the Chinese and we were like bombing like railroads at the Chinese use.

14:38Part of the belt road initiative but losing side of the fact that that like that's not a world works you don't just like bomb a country and then get all of its oil you know and the the underlying fear caused by the United States being this bull in a China shop and doing something like the Iran war confirms exactly what the Chinese have been saying about us for a very long time. Look at Kuwait for example like this is just one example this week goes reading a story about how Kuwait has had very good feelings about the United States given the way that we came to their defense when Saddam invaded them Gulf War one. But like how are things looking right now around targeting their civilian infrastructure the target their water to sell and Asian plants energy installations and they're looking around and like these US bases here helping us are are making us less safe. So two things I point you can you want to look at the world's kind of swing states right and the Gulf states are the other. The shock County because of the glove yeah they literally are the you know because they've got there in a cash poor world they have tons of cash they obviously have tons of natural resources and they've kind of been on our side but like the UAE the Saudis like they play with the Chinese on a bunch of stuff and look you're right it's not just that the bases you know don't make them safer the bases are endangering like they are being.

15:53Tat because they host US bases and that could lead them on the back end of this war to make some pretty fundamental choices about who they want to be aligned with and at least wanting to hedge against. Realized news let's what about South Korea like in the middle of a war which the United States yanked away the Thad missile defense system that's like the most important missile defense system for the South Koreans in a potential conflict he then just decides to to reignite his love unrequited love affair with Kim Jong Un who no longer even writes love letters he just sends troops to Ukraine to fight with Putin and he's canceling military exercises what what if South Korea is like you know what we're just going to cut a deal the Chinese like we don't like it but we got no other choice Europe. Same thing like on the tech issues right there's a lot of concern in Europe about being overly reliant on American tech because what if Trump comes along and just switches it off so he can invade Greenland and so you're hearing about digital sovereignty but also that can lead to the Europeans being like let's just buy the cheap Chinese AI and a few years ago the US would have said don't do that you know just like we said don't use Huawei I don't know that those arguments carry a lot of water anymore.

17:01Worries you have some of your lefty pals sometimes I see on tech talk or like what okay let's Chinese world orders fine like maybe we should just maybe it's better even you know like what what fears do you would you have about like a continuing on this trajectory. Well I mean obviously their political system is one in which you know you want to talk about a master valent state yeah I want to be clear when I say lefty sometimes the listeners get confused about all the language of these days because liberal you know we're changing up words. I know liberal now you know I'm talking about like the far edge the anti-America like a little corner of the left yeah I mean I guess to be fair like you know in some regards like the Chinese have not gone around starting wars right but at the same time like their political model is one of you know complete total control complete mass surveillance that's already built there. And you know essentially the the places that have become kind of under Chinese dominance have not benefited from it they get into debt traps like they they become kind of vassal states of like a different empire you know and yeah like you need somebody to help create collective action to solve problems and even from a lot standpoint like that includes climate change right among other things where's the Chinese are trying to try to coordinate clean energy sectors right.

18:24My argument to the left as someone who's like very sympathetic to a lot of their country's American foreign policy makes a lot of those critiques myself is it would still be better there's this presumption that the United States can do nothing right in the world and therefore we should just kind of close up shop. I'm sympathetic to some of that there's a lot we should just stop doing like dumb wars and I think we're we don't need a trillion half dollar you know defense budget and all the rest of it but I would still rather the United States tried to do good things in the world it would be better. And where I think we are Tim is like we're not going back to something we run we need to negotiate the new terms of the world like the United States China a whole bunch of other countries we should be entering an era of negotiation about what comes next because if it's a competition for who's going to dominate either the US or China or recommend ball Russia that's kind of a recipe for more conflicts and and less let's just say less good outcomes. The other thing impacting the swing states that you mentioned in the Middle East is the Israel relationship obviously that is impacting the swing states here in America to I want to talk to you a bunch about the Democratic side of this but there's just this one story that come I was kind of I think reflective of the political situation on that Israel is facing here on the Republican side as well.

19:42Responsible statecraft had this the Israeli government is running advertisements on the Ted Cruz podcast competitor of yours in mind behind both of ours and the rankings I think but he does have another job. Cruz's podcast we don't have a FEC really anymore and so I don't know that who would look into this but Cruz podcast has a strange licensing deal with I heart where revenue associated with the advertising sales goes to Cruz's truth encourage pack which supports his political endeavors the company is giving at least 1.7 million in digital revenue to truth encourage packs since to 2023. So if the Israeli government is running advertisements it does feel like a foreign government is giving money to the pack. Yeah well first of all truth encourage those words use you normally associate with Ted Cruz well he did have the courage to go on to talk to Carlson's podcast. Yeah yeah yeah that's true. I don't know about truth.

20:43That's the last time you exhibited some courage. You heard the courage probably not either you know fleeing from Mexico. Yeah I don't know. Look there's a lot of ways to think about Israel obviously today like one simple thing I would suggest to people is just remember it is a foreign country like it is not like an appendage of us. And so foreign countries generally should not be putting money into the packs of American politicians. When they are doing that they are usually going to want something in return for that kind of investment. You know I mean part of what my arguments on Israel have just been is like if we just treated Israel like another country a lot would change. Like you know in terms of militaries is in terms of stuff like this and at the same time like part of what's so frustrating me about this kind of stuff to him is it's like if you point out I remember I wrote a piece for the times and I took some shots at a pack for how they try to use money to influence politics. And they're like well you can't say that that's a trope like you're raising money and spending in campaigns to get an outcome I'm not suggesting that that's.

21:49They'll say well it's Americans it's not really foreign and so you're advancing this kind of conspiracy and it's like well but when I've been starting to talk about this way they've been like well I'm left part Lebanese from my mother sandwich Lebanese I'm like if it was there's 11 ease American pack like spending 30 million dollars in a primary race to support a candidate that was on the opposite side of the Israel Lebanon conflict I think people would be like this is pretty strange. Even if it was American Lebanese that we're spending like that much money right there absolutely it's American pack but in the same there are a lot like I don't like money in politics generally like I don't like how fossil fuel companies spend money in American politics like it's not just a pack but like it's also like not the best strategy for them like I don't think they have a problem with like the Ted Cruz podcast listenership like I keep hearing about this vaunted Israeli PR campaign and if the PR campaign involves like buying ad space. Ted Cruz podcast I'm not sure that's where they have a problem you know no I think there's been a backfire like a big backfire from people that would not really have cared one way or the other I think that they're particularly on the left.

22:58People who are super engaged you know who who maybe just have generally good feelings about Israel and feel like obviously the Jewish state I think there should be a Jewish state and all that and then they're like wait a minute but I live in Michigan. Like why is there so much money coming into this race like especially after you know we see in Israel conduct themselves in Gaza and the West Bank is just like it feels out of whack it's having the effect of having people you know have it like a negative backlash effect rather than a persuasive effect I think. It is because people notice when you spend 30 million dollars on ads you know and and so the first thing is it's just feeding the backlash like because it's get money out of politics and we're uncomfortable with this and like you know but the other thing I'd say Tim is that you know people sometimes you know who are more pro Israel will say why is that dual talking so much about you know Israel like I have those running on like Medicare for all if someone comes in with 30 million dollars they're the ones that are making a great deal.

24:00It's not a dual right you can simultaneously say like we don't like how much American politics and democratic politics in particular is becoming about this one issue at the same time that you're then getting into all these democratic primaries and pouring all this money into you know and they're not obviously advertising but Israel because they know that Democratic voters don't agree with them but it's not like we don't know where the money's coming from right yeah and I think every time they they lurch into these spaces and they're not going to be able to do that. Because it creates more backlash. I saw some pushback to that point on Abdul but just I just want to go a little bit more into what you're saying on on what the establishment of the pro Israel side of this dispute. I even am Michigan like it's kind of strange like Hillary Shulton's Congresswoman you know talking about how she would rather not be a Democrat if Democrats are not going to support fully the state of Israel and they're and everything they do. Hey, Stevens I kind of said this weird, misive to politico earlier this week after she lost where she was like my critics came at me and very personal and anti Zionist levels.

25:10I don't even know it's kind of a funny say it's saying I can't even really like know what that means how you can be attacked on anti Zionist levels but they're talking about this it's the it's like a fundamental critique right of of Abdul. And on an issue like where there's a disconnect between where they are and where the basis like maybe you think maybe some of our listeners think that's bad or you know maybe they're on you know Shulton and and Stevens decided that dispute but like yeah just if you just look at the numbers like the they're like way more Democratic politicians who are in the Steven Shulton camp and way more Democratic voters who are in the Abdul came. That's just a reality. And I think about this is like if any poll you look at you're up to kind of 70% or more Democrats who want to fundamentally they don't want to provide assistance to the Israeli government. They believe that more crimes are committed in Gaza and like you're not going to just kind of make that go away and stamp that out like because there's another piece of this that I think is important for Democrats as every now and then they try some new whack a most rad you to make just make this go away.

26:21And so recently it's been the kind of coordinated statements against the Sun Piker and you know Jared Mosquets the most pro Israel member of the Democratic caucus being put in charge of a subcommittee responsible for Middle East policy you know not a subtle move by the Democratic leadership there. Another problem with this Tim and again listeners who you know don't agree with my views on Israel. The one thing I would ask them is that this isn't just like over because Gaza you had Gaza then you had a warner on that again if you have your eyes open you know that BB Netanyahu was part of not entirely responsible part of persuading Donald Trump to do that. But that's what I was going to get at this isn't going to get better like look at the West Bank look at what's happening like that's going to continue to happen like everything that the Israeli government says and is doing suggests. They're just going to continue to take more and more of the West Bank there's going to continue to be these violent attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians like that's going to keep coming let's just think in terms of election cycles the next two years it's not like Israel is going to swing back to get sacrabin here and we can all just get it on with things.

27:27And so the people look like they don't understand what's happening are the Democratic establishment politicians are just trying to kind of keep this at arms length and make it go away. And I think there's a lot of ill will from 2024 when Democrats are told to like shut up and fall online because how many times are we going to be told to do that. Yeah, I've said this before but it's just a really big bone and I especially had it this week I get especially frustrated with the idea that like oh you know the Piker discourse or whatever obviously says a lot of things that I've found gross the extremes 10 hours a day and we disagree with a bunch of stuff. And somebody sent me an old tweet of his where he was talking about how much he loved Bashar Assad. It's like me and Hassan disagree a lot. But again, he's a supporter of of of a goalie's not a tool and like and if your concerns are about anti-Semitism and you're like bringing back Nazi illusions. It's like okay well like the current government is like was running a foreign gulag like a literal gulag based on that they sent people there based on the color of their skin and red tattoos like that's.

28:27Yeah, I I wasn't a concentration camp but like you know I know it was on the way where we were sending people there. You know just based on their ethnicity and we have these detention centers running out like the Iranian professor I've been talking about we have and and did we didn't do anything is a green card holder we're holding an internment camp. And like does my caroders not have to answer for it's crazy like I I don't even have micro I just even talked about that it's like if you're concerned about this and like you know creeping fascism and racism and putting people on camps based on their race like. Does like my caroders doesn't have to talk about the El Salvador gulag is anyone asked about it I've do was been asked about his son Piker like a thousand times it's like okay ask about that but like why that frustrates me when people say that they're like concerned about the human right side of this and like my garage gets this free pass. For media or commentators. Yeah, let me add another one which is like I remember being in Munich right in 2025 and JD Vance comes to the Munich security conference and gives a speech you know basically endorsing the AFD like a new like a neo not see German party like my family were German Jews including some who perish in the Holocaust like I'm not suggesting we shouldn't talk about any any symptoms and left I am suggesting like.

29:44The discordance between a twitch streamer saying things at times trigger people and the vice president of the United States flying to Germany and telling them they need to be nicer to their Nazis yeah where is my caroders on that like when is my caroders the pro AFD not see party I think yes I think yes because he doesn't criticize. I think part of this is like okay well we're not even asked for the republicans because like the democrats are having this I think in some way well counterproductive politically but healthy as part of an organism. Yeah, yeah, like extremely kind of product politically but I kind of healthy is like an organism to like have people say what they really think like there is no disagreement like Trump's has fascist mass thugs in the streets and we have camps and we're supporting the fascist governments in other countries and a microtters everybody is on board like there's no critique being offered from within their coalition. There's no critique and I guess actually that's actually there's one critique there's like the Tucker side of the party don't seem to be more anti-Semitic actually is the only critique.

30:44But the scale of the outrage about his son Piker is so much greater than JD Vance and AFD or you know that we have people saying we're saying people the gulags. Let me put this way even if you don't agree like I've been on his on his on stream. I don't agree with a lot of stuff. He says actually and I but I don't think he's any semi but let's put that aside. Let's say you disagree with me about that. There's not even a crack open of the door from from people who have these views that we need to kind of pay attention to young people here. Like the Democrats need young voters to win elections to knock on doors young voters have been telling you for years that this is a very important issue to them. And it's a gateway to them trusting you it's not just about Israel. It's like if I'm feeling gaslit on this issue well how am I going to trust that you actually going to fight to lower prices. Like this is what Mumbani figured out that if he showed that he would stand up to the party establishment on Israel. Like that guy seems like he's got some balls like I maybe actually will try to bring free childcare and like lower prices right.

31:45And so the way these statements are put out the way that this issue is treated. It's not even like they're just trying to disagree and say like hey can we just like isolate some of this more extreme rhetoric that we don't like. It's more just like shut up right and if you listen to a songpiker like your bad person you know well like millions of people listen to a songpiker. We have to be doing addition here not subtraction like I'm a big 10 guy like Jared Mosquitz has a place in the Democratic Party. I don't agree with them but so should a songpikers listeners like what are we doing here like when you when we've been losing like we've been losing we shouldn't be like trying to like kick people off the island. Here's the present when they represent the majority of you of Democrats. We're telling what seven or 70% of Democrats and war crimes are committed to seven and we went 70% Democrats to stay home in November. No, I obviously agree with you but here's the pushback that I thought was reasonable is from Matt Eglaceus. He wrote this I think people who want pro-Israel Democrats to get to yes with a dwell side should consider chilling out about this.

32:49Then he links to a bunch of your tweets you've been sending about Mosquitz and the piker and about all this stuff his case is basically okay heard that like Democrats need to get to these young voters but Democrats also need to get to pro-Israel moderate voters who who who were important and a list of slot in winning in 2024. And like I will say at his friends like don't seem to be like caring that much about that either. It's a fair point except we're always the ones who are told to chill out about it. Like like again 2024 happened in the uncommitted movement people were frozen out that there was no Palestinian American speaker at the DNC like we were told hey be quiet you know this is a problem. Everybody could say that though I mean that like a moderate Joe Manchin dem or John Bell Edwards den could say we're never represent I don't you know anything everybody could say that like we're always told to chill out and be the good sport. My point would be that like people really do care about this issue because they don't want to provide weapons they're going to use to commit war crimes or to annex the West Bank.

33:55And in politics what is the strategy for actually changing the party's position and at a certain point like you can't change the party's position. That's fine so that's a critique of you and that's a fair defense of you. Abdul those running a campaign to be a leader of Michigan. Yes. It does still feel to me I don't know like just as an observer I'm not living a Michigan so it's possible that adds I'm not saying but just as an observer of this and earned media and social media. My grudges really seems like he's working very hard to get to the moderate Alyssa Slotkin voters that he needs to win and Abdul I didn't seem like he's working that hard to get to those voters right now. I agree so yeah like a whom I am just a guy. Just a sweet and baby you're just tweeting from the West side. One of the things I'm trying to do in the world is to shift the party on this issue right. Abdul is to win a Michigan look it's a human enterprise. The guy had 30 million dollars dumped on him he's pissed about it you know but you know he's got to get past that and like run run the campaign that I think he wanted to run.

34:59He's not DSA and he's not a single issue Israel at all like he's actually he used to run single issue Medicare for all you know. He's got a trade board to talk about now that's going to hurt people in Michigan like he's got prices that are up he can talk about. He's obviously should talk a lot about health care because that's his expertise so I do I agree with that piece of the advice that like. Everybody knows where he is on on Israel right like like he doesn't need to talk about that the people that are excited to support him on that will do that. His job again addition his job in the next several weeks is to close the deal with the Alyssa Slotkin voters that I 100% agree with. I'll do a little more domestic politics stuff your books about speeches for people that listen to our past episode thing you'll listen to what we talked a lot about past speeches speech a fine feels a little back maybe not. I don't know it feels like I don't know there's a moment was kind of like you know after is over on one it's all short form video these days you know it's all two minute clips and there's some of that is related to speeches I guess you can talk about that but.

36:03The us off strategy of like owning news cycles by giving some like Obama ish we should say speeches on Friday evening you know so that people are talking about it all through the weekend seems to be working for him politically I'm just kind of wondering as you watch this how that kind of intersects with what you're writing about. I think it's really interesting because you know part of what I noticed in writing this book is how the delivery vehicles for speeches change how people speak right radio planes book and explanation FDR TV Kennedy Reagan king like charisma social media Trump right you speak for an hour and the algorithm just triggers everybody with it and and then everybody's like everybody started skipping the speeches and going to the social media video like my argument is twofold like the first thing is that a speech is where you figure out what your argument is. Figure out the story you're telling like I remember writing for Obama in 07 and it's actually a feedback loop tube Trump is pretty good about this like what are people responding to maybe I should talk more about what's working out there it's where you road test your material and it becomes the trunk of the tree for all of your communications.

37:09So if you know the story you're telling the coherent story and us up as a coherent story it's about corruption and state capture and the reason that your prices are high the reason everything sucks for you is because these guys are enriching themselves and their friends and they don't care about you and he ties it all together right and therefore all your social media videos and your interviews and everything else well they flow from the story you're telling now the other thing Tim which I you and I as you know I'm like the last of the general year millennial year. What he's doing is such a familiar strategy he gives a speech a whole speech they tweak it each week to have like a topper yeah topper yeah the top right he has something it's in the news that he adds to that speech they clip it in every fucking Monday morning or Sunday morning everybody's talking about like this John Osso speech that that went viral you know it's usually like the topper and I knew that speeches were bad.

38:09When I saw Pete Buttigieg give a speech from with the exact camera angle like you know I'll stuff that the hero shot camera points up at him the hero shot like he's at the podium like and and Pete did the same thing I'm like we're back like and I really truly believe this because what you can do in the speeches you can tell a coherent story you can tie the whole thing together you can figure out what your message is and then lo and behold it makes your other communications better you can it turns out still control the narrative with a really good speech with a really clever topper that you can clip it send out you do have to be good though you know yeah I know there's a reason I think what some of the candidates I worked for McCain and Jeb in particular I don't know that it was the error of the medium that prevented us from doing this and giving speeches it was the fact that neither of them were very good to give speeches right and so I forget whether it was social media or whether it's the local news you know like the one minute clip like wasn't that good and so you know you work with the you can work with McCain started doing more the town hall style thing and then that was like really yeah he's gonna walk yeah he's got that was very invoked for a while for bad speech givers so like oh wait we can do this instead the other thing that you know kind of it allows you to do besides like print up the story that you're telling like in the social media era

39:27it's like just give people something to talk about that you control yeah like you know narrative narrative control and I do think that like democrats really kind of lost have lost last 10 years like narrative control yeah they've completely lost it because again what what a speech allows you to do again you have to communicate outside the speech to what is the story you're telling Trump's been telling one story for 10 years right and we have to we've lived it the democrats have been on all over the world the place like they lurch right like we're just going to talk about abortion or we're just going to talk about health care subsidies and we sound like talking to democracy and you know to quote our friend Dan Fyfer like they read the stage directions like we are here now to talk about kitchen table we understand that you don't care as much about democracy you know and that's a crazy way to do politics because the democracy is fundamentally to find with the kitchen table shoes it's one thing no emotional feeling in it this is the connection to the good speech this is what Obama was good at this

40:28what Trump is good at it's different emotions but like yeah connects you know and like us off this is where both us up and Pete I have a little work to do on that front on like but you can kind of set it in a way that it's like triggers an emotional reaction you know even if that's not their natural state I think what us off needs like I haven't gone back to all these speeches like the next step is what is his personal motivation like why why him if he runs for president like the next that's where you make the emotional connection like you have to understand like not only this person's words are right their stories good but like why why are they telling me the story instead of anybody else and I think that's that's the next step that he can still get there speaking of amazing speechifying we do have one other kind of rising star on that front on our political scene somebody just with pure charisma and I want to play a little bit of a recent speech by him and I want you to have the real freedom that comes along with knowing that you are the lord of your own manner the great Southern

41:34the great Southern populist probably most of you in the room don't know who I'm talking about but he's an interesting guy kind of a crazy guy his name was Huey Long and he once said every man a king was the goal of his political program but no man is a king if their castle is under siege by criminals no man is a king if they can't take their family out to dinner without being mugged or having their card jacked and of course ending the Biden border invasion was a big part of why we have changed that over the last 18 months not about the feeling one of the things you're about in the book though is the way that comes like the American stories told and retold and updated and so I wanted to get your take on JD Vance's update of the Huey Long the lord of the manner there I mean like like JD Vance is constantly trying to kind of speak himself into being something that he's not you know like Huey Long you know probably has a higher name record on the board podcast

42:44and some other places but I mean this is a guy that like that that like just exuded authenticity right like it like you you know you may not have liked Huey Long but like you know you you believe that he came from the places that he was talking about to believe the things that he was saying like JD Vance constantly looks like he practiced in front of the mirror at trying to be this weird combination of like a populist and a troll like wrapped in like a like Peter Teal constructed you know suit nothing about it suggests up into the venture capital a stroll yeah. The emotional connection you talked about comes from knowing something about what you know John McCain like I didn't agree with about a bunch of stuff I agree with some stuff but like you kind of knew that guy's story and like what motivated and all made sense it made sense like even if I didn't agree with some of his decisions like where they came from made a lot of sense to me. Yeah this way the JD wife part of it people are uncomfortable to talk about this because you get it gets into you know personal territory and this this also popped up in the Michigan center races little thing recently but like it also hurts the authenticity of the story like if JD's story is like and we talked about this last time you know I'm like this populist like America's blood and soil nationalism America

43:57is an ideal America is a people in a place you know and also to be the Lord of your own manner we can't have any foreigners in the country and the most best thing the Trump did was make sure we have negative migration. And also my son's name is Vivek yeah yeah yeah yeah just like what I can doesn't make sense like the story doesn't make sense. New his own life is more in line with the other story we like you know we talk about this last time but essentially you he gives his kind of blood and soil nationalism speech and all this talk about the we America can be about the declaration independence because lots of people like that and they often become American and all the rest of it but we mean well you know his own house looks more like the kind of composing nation that's right to Doug was talked about where people come from everywhere and they can intermarry and they can there's just just discordance here. And a dual like raised that you mentioned Michigan I don't know if this is right or wrong like a duals testing out this kind of alpha Democrat yeah and every now and then like oh I don't know why I went there but I'm also like well it's an interesting experiment.

44:58And it's a very contrasting experiment what Rob saying is doing in Iowa it's just kind of interesting. Yeah it's the opposite it's the opposite and you know what they both might work you know that that's fine and politics different things work like Trump is married to an immigrant like this is absurd like the people running the big. The biggest mass deportation campaign since you know well bigger the biggest American history you know sweeping people up off the street you know just like for for no reason in some cases like you know Trump's married to an immigrant and you know JD vans is mayor you know is in a biracial relationship that which is great but like it doesn't it's not exactly the Lord of the manner white nationalism stuff. Yeah and JD's credit his wife can speak English so I do think that's important contrast. All right let's go back to your news one resistance one mistakes reflections you know as a as a resistor like you we both were resistance I know I know my feelings still got a little bit hurt.

46:00I understand the pushback the feeling like Trump won again so obviously resistance one failed in a way like it's sort of like you know that's just what happened. And so there's like almost no sense and kind of arguing about that there was clearly a failure it's like you lost the game you had to do something wrong. I do get a little bit annoyed at you but like other people who weren't really on the field not really but no I a little bit know you one thing we get to that in a second but on the broader question people who weren't really on the field that much. I'm a former who are complaining a lot the whole time you know being like you guys suck you lost I was like what are you doing yeah do you win do you beat Trump do you have any wins show you where you what are you so that does frustrate me a little bit but anyway. I'm going to try to let my personal issues set them aside and look at this objectively what were the what were the lessons that you took away from. This resistance one you know the the page being turned with Vinhman and Conway and Golden losing those are kind of the example she used. Yeah I use them as kind of archetypes and again I acknowledge in the piece I'm in a glass house I was a resistor I was tweeting like crazy I had a podcast and you still do.

47:06I supported the first impeachment of Trump but like first them as architects that lead into lessons right because you know Conway is the kind of hyper online never trump or right. Then Vinhman is the kind of like noble civil servant you know who did a noble thing and just a blowing but you know then we were kind of the idea that the resistance is from within the federal government you know he kind of represented that line of thought and then Dan Goldman the kind of the prosecutor at the first impeachment and the kind of hero holding Trump to account. The problem is there's a limitation to all this like the first one is that I think the hyper online aspects of the resistance like clearly had a very low ceiling on what they could accomplish and I did I single that the Lincoln project as something where I remember even at the time people like the most online people I knew would always be sending me these like Lincoln project clips and you like they really got him here you know comfort. It was exactly it was less about persuasion and more about comfort food right and so one thing is like the hyper online stuff made us all feel like heroes but but was it really out there persuading people so that's one thing the second thing is that the kind of deification of Vinhman right kind of tipped let's face it it tipped into sanctumony you know I mean and I wrote about all the letters I signed you know defense of the you know this norm or this I think the federal bureaucracy is great you know because I'm a very good person.

48:31It's great because I'm a big government guy you know but we lean so hard into it that it played writing the idea that these are the establishment people the Democrats of the establishment they're defending the government they're defending the institutions I have a cringe Instagram those with Vinhman I think the caption is called saved America from 2021 not quite yeah and then that Trump impeachment the first one the second one was obviously necessary but but like it played in this idea that all these people care about in the resistance is Trump do they care about what I'm focused on in my lives right but the core problem too is that the whole premise of the resistance and this is the kind of feature not the bug was Trump is an aberration and we represent like America and he doesn't and therefore inevitably like gravity is going to catch up to this guy Mueller is going to nab and he'll get him peach because of Vinhman or inevitably he'll lose the election right and I don't think he would have lost that election without COVID this isn't me saying now we have to go back in time and examine the white working class grievances people must Virginia this is me saying like hey wait a second like Trump represents like deeper you know yes there those grievances against globalization but there's also xenophobia and anti-immigrant feeling and and the kind of deification of celebrity and rich guys like Trump and even con men like Trump like and he had captured something real and all this populism that was pissed off at everything

49:54and by casting as an aberration we didn't take seriously like the enough the deeper currents that were behind Trump is now look sure we some of us did at the time sure but we can't argue with the results and I'd say Tim just to I actually thought about adding the bull work into this as a positive by the way I'm not just saying this because like if you look at bull work 2.0 you're a little grittier you know like you're doing a deeper reckoning right like you're doing something different than you the first time in the same way that I'm trying to do something different you know because I think frankly if I'm now just pick on myself but I think it applies to a lot of people like we secretly felt kind of like heroes you know like we're here on the vanguard defending democracy and that's not inviting to people like and it's not enough to talk about Trump with the sharpies you got to talk about like why Trump with the sharpie means that like he's not paying attention to the things that you're actually pissed about in your lives you know so there's a lot there but you know that's the summary I agree with this and I think it's important to really and I'm like trying hard so I genuinely appreciate the compliments I'm trying to hard to actually reflect on stuff and obviously you know again at some level this was a failure and we should reckon with that because he's fucking back in there there were two things that I just wanted to bring up from the piece that are I think kind of comforting

51:17reckoning for the left yes because because it's like you know these are easy things to say because it doesn't really actually require that much reflection and one is as a personal nitpick which is about poor Liz Cheney yeah you write this Liz Cheney was even enlisted as a leading surrogate for Kamala Harris ignoring the fact there was little evidence of a non elite never Trump coalition I agree with the broader point but I have a quick quiz for you what was Liz Cheney's convention speaking slot do you remember where she spoke I don't know I was referring more to her in Pennsylvania at the end yeah she wasn't invited to the convention yeah yeah like three events with kind of my point is just like I think it's really easy to like look at this I think this is a shorthand which is like oh the Liz Cheney thing and it's like well I don't know I feel like there are a lot of mistakes that you can look at to the Harris campaign about you know ways that it did not resonate and it's kind of like if you're in the left coalition it's like easy to be like you know the big mistake with those two events that she definitely is changing Pennsylvania like that signal the wrong thing and it's kind of like well rid of I mean Liz was trying to help I don't know you on that I don't but by the way so number one I don't blame Liz Cheney for this you know

52:23like she's trying to help like I blame that like they they did bring her out in high profile events in like I think the final week of the campaign in key swing states I think Pennsylvania maybe Wisconsin and they kept stepping on the rake of being the establishment right like whatever you think about Liz Cheney and I know you you know like have things you I mean like more things about her than I do but and I like something's better she her name is Cheney she represents you know most Americans hear Cheney like they don't think January 6th committee they think Bush Cheney they think Iraq war or and and there are a lot of ways in which the Democrats like repeatedly were telling people like hey look at us we have the backing of these establishment Republicans were bipartisan when in fact what Trump had figured out was I believe the way Trump got credibility with voters is by breaking the Republican Party by being like I understand how mad Republicans and Democrats are the Republican Party and I'm

53:23willing to blow it up and so again like Liz Cheney caught my strays but it's more about that's indicative of a Democratic Party mindset I mean I remember Tim like looking at the and I'll give you a lefty another lefty thing that that Comma Harris convention speech when you know she's talking about like we need the most lethal military it's a very like 2002 Democratic we're still trying to convince people that we're gonna like we're willing to go fight wars when in fact like that that's not what people want anymore you know and so I think the Liz Cheney thing is indicative of a mindset that we didn't understand that you know that ship is sailed and I also do think that you know I earned some green rooms or at least virtual ones they're these narratives that play out on cable where Liz Cheney is a hero for January 6th but I don't know how much that filters down to Wisconsin and you know and I do think Democrats lived too much in the green rooms and through the first Trump term of the binary yeah I totally agree with that right seven I guess my point was

54:26more sometimes I get pressuated with the left criticism because I was like because I'm so like you know what's a pretty important election was the easiest choice of my lifetime Liz Cheney was begging the Harris campaign to let her do and she's like I'll do whatever you want literally I just know this personally they didn't fucking call her back into October and then it's like and then meanwhile you got a bunch of people that are like shitting on Comma the whole time that's right you know what the biggest thing you know what I mean I just like that environment I'm just kind of like where why weren't you offering to I don't maybe and maybe if Comma said no then it's like okay that's on her but I think that there was not a ton of excitement to help her from some of the people that were that are critical okay my other netback is just this one your top lesson I thought I was wanting I thought you're gonna mention it and you didn't online energy is not a shortcut to electoral success I agree with that about the resistance one I also wonder if it's also true about the current kind of online energy for the DSA left and I don't know if it's true or not but I I think that like right now there is like a lot of sort of assumptions

55:30that it's popular and it's working because it worked in some primaries and because it gets you a lot of retweets talk about this is maybe the most offensive thing I could say to DSA posters but like is there actually some parallels between the big you know online DSA accounts and George Conway actually in lack of trying to persuade and more of you know aren't we so aren't we doing so well right now sorry George I love you sorry to both sides of that comparison I know both of you later yes I think that's very critique I think if you look at the DSA candidates that get meaning like real traction right um like Mamdani is not just posting right like he's modeling a different kind of politics right both in terms of his agenda and also just he's literally showing up every single place he's talking every single person he can right he's the best example though he's that's kind of like me using a soft as the example for a good resistance one figure you know some people are just talented and can overkill I guess my point would be the DSA's how far they can go

56:35look I don't think there's any world much the DSA like becomes a democratic party like I don't think they think that um they they want to move the party to the left uncertain things right that that happens in politics like every freaks out but this is a kind of normal occurrence you know the tea party wasn't the first time this always happens like an activist wing comes in and they're trying to pull the party in a certain direction left or right uncertain issues and I guess what I would say is you're right that the success of that effort is not going to play out online it's just not um it's going to depend upon how good are these candidates in different places you know um and again Mdani's the best example I mean in a way like Angie Nixon Florida like she she's going to hard time winning that general election um but it's that Florida democratic party you know you know this stem from far has gotten pretty sclerotic over the years I think it's probably good for them that she's good it is good because she ran a better campaign and the message is like you don't you know like you guys are out of touch with these voters um and and I'm on the ground doing the work

57:38and talking about the things people are really upset about and you know like that will regenerate that party in some fashion right and so I think you're correct it like it's it's not going to come from like you know I don't know you know who the DSA posters are like the you know Matt I was going to pick on floor Matt 14 I know but he's not gonna get enough time you know so I was like is he just the first day that comes down who does to him that he's the George Conway at the first first day in the crystal mine and huge what I'd say about the DSA posters too like they they have the wrong definitions of success in some ways right because just posting Medicare for all is not going to make Congress pass Medicare for all like the point is like this is how change happens in politics and now I'll get dunked on by the the left on you but like you're never you're not gonna pass Medicare for all the next Congress um I don't think I mean happy to be proven wrong like the more you've set a barometer of the more and more people that are for this kind of single payer system like you you've turned the public option into the mod position you know which was the like left position

58:41in the Obama era like that's how change happens right that's a win right um right now I'm against any arm sales to Israel um the mod position has become cutting off assistance to Israel like the like financing of those sales right like that's a win right so like part of what you're doing and this is why primary success matters even if not all those primary successes are you know we can look the candidate quality varies um that the party's going to have to kind of readjust to that and by the way if they don't they're gonna have problems too because then they're gonna have this endless internal civil war that's why I think this is pie care stuff is so stupid it's it's unforced error because it's like we we can't fight an internal civil war when we have an existential threat to the country here except the fact that the party's moving a bit to the left okay it doesn't mean that um that 14 is gonna be writing the agenda and picking the you know every committee assignment the next Congress I agree with that I just think that yes stated the resistance one strategies didn't work um that does not mean like there's no syllogism that's like that means that

59:45okay this new thing that we're doing that's really hot online now that that's yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah it's like I don't know it might be worse yeah yeah you know I mean like we won I like I don't know like it wasn't that good Hillary won the popular vote though she lost like obviously I'm not arguing that we should redo the Hillary campaign but yeah this is where my small sea conservatism comes at things can be worse than the old strategy it's just because it's different doesn't mean it's better the online piece I agree with you on I will say you're not made different this like you're all sent up for the not the DSA but the progressive Clinton Biden and Harris all ran as as moderates you know like like like it's not like we haven't tried that I mean Harris ran as a moderate like only in the construct of being an anti-war person well she wasn't Medicare for all she wasn't um you know on some of the cultural issues she was in the sour spot I've talked about this before it's kind of like she was in she was seen as a progressive on all these social issues and like if you're just defining it based on health care and foreign policy she has seen as a

1:00:45moderate so she's like running as a moderate on healthcare and foreign but it was like kind of the inverse would probably be better that's fair yeah yeah you know and I think that I think that there's this goes back to like my easy comfort food you know the now the lefty comfort food which is okay well if we fix the the healthcare and foreign policy part then that's good we don't have to deal with anything else and I'm kind of like those are things everybody kind of agrees on except for you know Hillary Schultz and sure it's not like those are things that are easy to kind of in some ways right it's like the other stuff is yeah a little more challenging and Rob that's where you got to look at like a Rob Sand you know so we both hate endless canter I ranted about him on Monday you wrote an article about him people can go read it the short of it is and as canter fooled both of us or maybe dead nutter-dough he we he connected with both of us on human rights issues that we care about you had dinner with him even I dinner them I had mine my podcast yeah yeah now he's doing fight me bros stuff with women basketball it's sad because basically the person I met

1:01:48you know a back in 2019 I thought had real moral 30 like he'd sacrificed real things for his political beliefs about turkey and air to gun and and he's taken that currency and and and and now taking it all the way to like messing around with female basketball players telling Americans that you know don't agree them to shut up like which is kind of counter to the whole free speech vibe that he was putting off and just kind of feeling a bit like someone who is trying really hard to be like a be list mega influencer yeah you're doing great as things to me yeah he's on the payroll someone's paying him yeah yeah I think it's America first before it's more since at it's like I can and they're the ones following him around with cameras I don't know it's like a little bit more offensive yeah to be someone that was positioned themselves with somebody that cares about human rights to then just become like a downrate downrate toll well it makes you go back and look at some of his stuff because like his next act after turkey was about China and he's writing like you know down with

1:02:50Xi Jinping on his sneakers and then he's like you know blaming the NBA for him not getting another contract and going on Fox and and and I was like okay maybe like you know and it's really like you know I don't like a lot of things about Xi Jinping but it makes even that feel like an an entry point it's like I can get booked on Fox if I because basically went on Fox and said the NBA's hypocrites because they talk about Black Lives Matter not China and even at the time I was like well I don't know like if I'm like a you know an Indian that's a very reason for American like I probably would spend a lot more time thinking about the you know the state of black communities in this country then you know Hong Kong which is something I care about right but in retrospect it makes a lot of what he did feel calculated and that's you know yeah that that sucks Ben Rhodes I appreciate it we aren't long gonna Friday so thanks for all the time good show long show always happy to do 10 doubt we'll be talking we'll be talking again soon a hot at you next time in L.A. all right cool sounds good all right later man everybody else will be back on Monday with Bill Crystal I love having Ben Rhodes on Friday because then Bill yes I still was right after him at bringing

1:03:53a lot of balance to the Gold work universe we'll see you all Monday the Gold work Daily is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper associate producer Anzali Skipper and with video editing by Dante DeCicco and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brett