ATP US Open Third Round Picks – 9/4/26 (Ep. 701)

0:00The tennis gambling podcast on the sports game podcast network is brought to you by the SPN app that overpicks and podcasts for free, but the SGPN app. And welcome everyone to the tennis game podcast, show the sports game podcast. Now we're currently Friday morning, early Friday morning, around one eight Eastern time on September 4th. I'm Roscarra, I showered a breakdown, the third round of the men's US Open, turned breakdown, some not all of the matches taking place on Friday and on Saturday. Before that, though, and recap what happened in the second round. And before that, reminder to sports show like subscribe on the YouTube, of course, platform. Also like subscribe on really just any platform possible can tell the show grow and airminder to check out the podcast audio only on Spotify and Apple if you're rating in review when you do so. Plus reminder, check the merch store, lottery merchandise that we have on the S-Train merch store for tennis and for other shows as well, but for tennis, we've sweatshirts, we've t-shirts and we have mugs very quality. We also have hats now, things like the options that we

1:02have to check out the SGPN merch store. And airminder that for the NFL season starting next week, the free roll contest is back for football, take every game, ETS for a chance to win up to $4,000 and do today for free at sportscam.com slash free roll. Also check out the fundraiser that we're having right now for Columbia to help them out with the earthquake. If you want to help out the cause, go to sports him gambling a podcast to come slash relief to help out today. So moving on to the recap of the first round, we have four lock and dog picks to recap from the men's and women's episode. And unfortunately, they all sucked. We went on four. I wasn't good. Now the men's beats were pretty brutal. The women's ones were really not that close. So just a bad read on those. For the lock, we had Baylick in straight sets at minus 130. She lost outright to Bukesa. That was not on my card. Bukesa was terrible for the last couple of months. And Baylick was good and Cincinnati and immediately no show as she lost outright in three for the dog with Custard Keena. We're going to fade Bendoza

2:04without knowing your health. She'll look good and they're winning in straight sets and they're actually giving gopherum for money in the next round. But either way, it wasn't closed for the lock or the dog in the women's episode for the men's episode. Just a lot of, I'd say, pain and suffering because we had two in my opinion, good reads that went down in flames for the lock. We had Baratini and Warranka over 38 and a half games of minus 117. And while Rancor went out in a tragic fashion in his final ever match, as he had one set point in the first set, blue that had two set points in the second set, blue those. And he served for the second set and he blew that too. And then he got Baygold in the third set. So Baratini won the first set after surviving the set point that Warranka had won the breaker. Then while Rancor almost had a golden opportunity to win the second set. So we had a golden chance to basically get a one-one split with a tie break. And then while Rancor blew that and completely unraveled. So we were very close to getting almost

3:07a guaranteed winner at 38 and a half. And instead we weren't really that close in the end because while Rancor got Baygold and set three. But if he wins the second set or the first set with the set point, we were cruising and instead we lost. So that was definitely annoying bit of a bad beat there. And for the dog, the weather absolutely screwed us. We had Pissarrow money line at plus 129 against a Zhang. He was up two sets to one. The rain showed up. The match got suspended and moved to Thursday. And he got buried in the last two sets on Thursday. But he was up to one, Ged momentum. And all that went out the window as the rain calls the match to get suspended to the day after. And Pissarrow had nothing in the tank and he got destroyed. So a really bad first right episode for us. It is what it is. The women's bets were just not good. I'll admit that the Kassikina play was mostly a Bidosa fade and the Baylig play was not good either. So apologies there. For the men's losses, I really have no apologies because the weather completely screwed over Pissarrow and while

4:12Rancor choked the first and the second set away before unraveling. So it is what it is. Unfortunately own four, which is not what you want to do to start a tournament. But it is what it is. And we'll try to bounce back here in the third round. Now for the second round, apologies for not doing an episode for the second round. Full disclosure, I went to the US Open. So I was actually quite busy and that I'm not having the time to actually record it the night prior. So apologies there. Overall, it was fun. I had not gone to the US Open in a couple of years. I saw a couple of fun matches, which I'll recap right now. So I saw Maria beat Rubelev in four, which was phenomenal. I got to witness a just the first ball at Hall of Fame clown. I'll lose in four to Maria. Now I actually did like Maria in the match and a friend of mine who joined me had a pretty hefty wager on Maria to two. So we were rooting for Maria in the entire matchup. But look, I thought Maria was going to win. I know I didn't break it down in an episode, but Rubelev was pretty fortunate

5:12to get past for Tonnen in five rounds. And even that, he fought off a match point in. So Rubelev, which is a non-great form. Maria, I think, has been good for the last couple of months. And Maria got the job done upset on paper, but not really. I thought it was definitely going to be a very close matchup. And Maria got the job done as you won the last three sets. I'd say pretty easily. Did get broken to start the fourth set and then drove twice to win. But either way, Maria was a better player. Really no surprise there from Rubelev. And I got to see the clown in full action in person. Moving on to the matches that actually didn't end up seeing. I mean, Mbive, Gorsny, I didn't go to that match at all. I did not go to the Moonar match at all either. He was fortunate to even be in the second round because of the fact that Op main fellow partner had a hand cramp up to sets in a break. So Moonar was fortunate to be in the second round. And he got dominated. Bonsi, that was the first round match actually. Does Anchelpe beating Choyne T1, that was the first round match as well. It was a bit of a weird day because the weather got in the way and they had to make up some first round matches as well in addition to second round

6:17matches. It's kind of a mixed bag there. But ended up, I saw the Spasia match against Altmeyer. Unfortunately, I lost a parlay. I had Altmeyer to win and both players to win a set. And that was like 30 to one. And that was the final leg that I lost. I watched it really wasn't that close. Altmeyer though won the third set tie break. Started pouring rain. They resumed about an hour later. And Altmeyer of course served first got broken. Start the fourth set. So either way, that didn't work out. But either way, it was a fun match in Spasia. Look good. Of course, he did a lose to Gia in the second round. But that was a fun match. I saw in person and I had good seats too right after the Raindole. Besides that Shelton and they're beating her catch in four fun match. Her catch had chances, but a classic her catch loss. Good, not good enough. And Shelton survived and advanced. Now this was round one, but I have to acknowledge it. I didn't watch any of it. But what the hell was that from Hoder? See, the thing is I was sitting in the stands watching

7:20the Marita and Ruble of match. And I saw the scoreboard on court 17, like all the way in the distance. And I keep looking up at the scoreboard in the top right during changeovers. And Boo just keeps winning games. And Hoder was not moving at all. As games were like, oh, it's 2-1. Now it's 3-1. Now it's 6-1. I'm like, what is happening over on this court? But yet Hoder had an all-time embarrassing showing as Boo destroyed them in straight sets. And then of course, lost to Jang in the second round. But still, Hoder, I did not actually see in person. Thank God. He won four games the entire match. But I was keeping an eye on the scoreboard in the distance. But I did not walk over to watch that match. Moving on to the other matches, though, that I ended up seeing in the second round. I saw Citi Poss, who ended up beating Harris in four. Now I had a massive sweat in person. And I know that a couple people might have seen me sweating out that match on court 17.

8:22But I had the first set tie break alive at plus 220. No break points in the first 10 games of the match. Citi Poss blows two game points, double faults on break point. So I'm down 6-5 now. However, Harris double faults on break point. And I won. So that was nice. My tickets for the US open were free. Overall, good atmosphere, even more fun when you're actually going. And the bets take care of the payments. But yeah, I won at first set tie break with Citi Poss and Harris. Cursey of a break and break back in the 5-5 service game and the 6-5 service game, which is kind of wild. But either way, that was my experience. Citi Poss, again, got the job done. I'll put it this way. We're cool now. He's still the number one clown, but he made me money. And my tickets were free. So I can't complain too much. Fun overall for set. I actually jumped around, but either way, a nice win for him in four. Besides that, on the Vona, ended up beating Baratini in four.

9:24I caught the first set and a half of that one. Notice Baratini was winning after basically every point of the first set onward. And he fell apart. So I didn't actually see the implosion, but you can see if you're watching the match, he was winning constantly in between points. And the Vona warmed down. Like the Vona is a guy who, like we saw against Jokovic, you will keep balls in play and force you to play four plus hours. And Baratini's overall body just could not handle it. And Baratini fell apart. So there you go. I did not see Tiafowin. I know he beat Sakamoto in three. I did not see Vaturo win. I know he won in four. Boo-blook, I saw a little bit of, but that was a blood bath. He only lost five games to Manorino. That was actually the court next to the Baratini match. They moved the Boo-blook one from court seven because of Colin Skaya. And they moved it to the court next time. So I looked up in between changeovers and Boo-blook was winning every point. That's kind of what I noticed. Paul did be prismic in four. And Alcara's lost a set and then jumped to Faria as he won in four

10:29as well. So overall a very fun day of at least tennis for me. The matches itself, I'd say, weren't the most dramatic. I saw a couple of four setters. Shapo I saw who blew a five-one lead in the third setting in Von Asch. However, he held on to win the tie break, which would have been an epic clown moment that I was there for. But either way, Shapo got the job done as he won that in straight sets. But I recommend it. I think a joke of joluzing resulted in cheap particulates because it would have been joke of it's Baratini. And instead it was Naveau and I Baratini. But I got in for like 80 bucks. And I just jumped around to a bunch of matches. And I thought it was a great time. The rain was of course a bit annoying and ended up getting some beer, got some food. So overall it was nice. But if you've never been before, I recommend it. It was a good time. I will, if my friend, and we just went to different matches, live bet tennis matches, and it was a good time. So I recommend going, if you have not done so before, but that was my experience in the US Open. I'll give it a solid 8.5 out of 10. Would have been higher, but the rain delay didn't exactly help.

11:34I'm moving on to the matches that happened on Thursday. So those are the Wednesday matches. For Thursday, a Surunderlow beat Shroof in five. A Dorderry beat for Sina in four. He saw Felix Lewis, Tukashanov in four. Felix didn't look great against Jakarta in round once. And not too much of a shock. But Gashanov nice win for him. Fertz destroyed Blue. She lost two games the entire match. And ESPN insisted on showing all of it instead of going to an actual competitive match, which is another problem I have with the ESPN broadcast. A Museti fell apart. Minus 2500 favorite. How about losing in four to Swini? He was dizzy. He had some health issues and he fell apart. So nice win for Swini there to be a little bit popper in in four. Gaboli one in four again. School Kate. A block between Galidian four. Lots of four setters in the card on Thursday. Gia beat Sphagia. So that was a nice win for him. A Monphe officially did lose. He lost the TN in straight sets. At least he won around. Shout out to Vallejo for getting his ass kicked. But TN's a bad matchup. He

12:39warmed down. And he won in straight sets. And Zheng ended up beating Blue in four. And Howls of course is playing Zverev right now after Zverev barely beat Sonnego in round one. Nothing else for a recap though. I mean, I watched a decent amount of the matches on Thursday. Wednesday, you know, when you're at the event, you catch some you miss all those and you kind of piece together the highlights in between. But overall that's the second round time to move on into the third round of the USO. Before that though, air reminder or actually, no, I got at least acknowledged it. I didn't mention it before. Joke of it. Losing was an absolute heartbreaker because I was going to the event. And I wanted to see Joke of it for the tires. And instead he lost in a Vona. So that sucked a four and a half hours and he fell apart. I think he lost like 12 and the last 13 games in the match. But it was kind of reminiscent of Sinner losing a Surun below in the French Open. Not to the same health extreme, but you tell Joke of which was vomiting. He didn't have it, I'd say,

13:41health wise. But the Vona got the job done. That was round one. But I have to at least acknowledge that he lost. So shout out to Nivone for beating Joke of it. Unfortunate for me, but I still had a good time nonetheless. Either way though, before we get into the third round of the USO open or amount of the brought to by response for Clutch Paralys, check them out for data back projections and check the predictions out updated live during the game. So get updated odds through every pitch, basket and possession. Also use the leaderboard system if you want to compete with others. Simple to use clean dashboard and a one stop shop for for research. Plus the opportunities and air mind are going to free month with the coachman at signup clutchparalys.com promo code SGPN. We're also brought to by fantasy. You want to be a million of the football season, download on a dog and jump into keep your million. It's our the million dollars and head your bets across 20 player projection questions by splitting your cash on higher or lower. Keep whatever lands on the winning side. If you hit zero, you're out, they get through all 20 rounds and you walk away with whatever's left in bonus funds. Once again, new customers in select states

14:44can get up to half. They get a 5% deposit match up to $1,000. Check out on the fantasy promo code SGPN. The NFL is right around the corner in the sports gambling podcast is back with their 32 NFL team previews and of course your chance to win a $1,000 NFL future with Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast finished going through the recap of the second round and my trip to the US open time to move on into the third round preview. So moving on to the actual matches first match on the card we have mevada taking on Render Connection. So he's about minus 267. Render Connection is around plus 237. The overrunner is at about 38 games for spread minus 4.5 for mevada plus 4.5 for Render Connection. For the sets for a though, mevada minus 1.5 sets is minus 136. Render Connection plus 1.5 sets is a plus 121. They've played a

15:48couple of times before. They've tied. They've split the two meetings. Render Connection did one of the last year in Shanghai which does play pretty fast and we saw the US open meeting a couple of years ago which mevada did win in straight sets. Now Render Connection has been good beach in Bacoro in four and beat Munar in straight sets. Then again, Shima Bacoro and Munar, you got to be joking. Like that's an absolute joke of a path into the third round. For mevada, like Gorsany was a gift because Cohen yo completely unraveled into that fourth set. Sorry, the fifth set. He blew a massive lead in the fifth set tie break. Either way, a point is mevada beat Gorsany, a gift of a win, and Gaston in straight sets. Now, we know mevada was in really bad form. He lost a damn in straight sets right before the event of Winston-Salem. He found some random routine with chewing gum and it's actually worked out for him. Maybe he found something. Now, I find that interesting though that Render Connection did end up beating a mevada

16:51because it's a bad match up for him. Then again, that was the crazy event where Render Connection ended up facing his cousin, Vaturo in the final and he lost. Maybe just weird things happen in Shanghai but mevada everything's a bad match up in general for Render Connection who mainly is, I can't say a serve bot, but if the first serve is not following, he has real problems. He's not a great volunteer. He's not an amazing ralier. Mevada though does look good overall. For me, I'm going Mevada minus 1-0 sets here. I think he just looks good. Gorsany almost found a way to make the third set interesting, but Mevada I think is the more well-rounded player and if the first serve is not following for Render Connection, the second serves is just going to give him problems. I'm going with Mevada here minus 1-0 sets minus 1-36. Yes, I know it's tied to 1-1 the head to head with Render Connection winning the most recent meeting, but I see a bad match up and I like I'm Mevada's play. I'll go Mevada minus 1-0 sets here at minus 1-36. Moving on to the next match up, we're going to look at Yibing taking on Alcaraz. Alcaraz, massive, favored minus 1,600 Yibings around plus

17:581050. Four of these sets spread. Alcaraz 3-0 is minus 1-19. Yibing to an A set is plus 106. The over of 3-0 sets is plus 1-14, under is minus 128. For the spread minus 7 and a half where Alcaraz plus 7-0 for Yibing and the over under is at about 32 and a half. For the fifth so far, Yibing has been really, really good. Yibing, we know is a talented player, the issue is never healthy, be Walton in straight sets and be duck worth in straight sets. Two Aussies are really, That's a easy competition. But you know what, Walt and us in Firepower, and he is a pretty decent hardcore player, and Duckworth did beat Arnoldi in four. He was in decent form and won Salem as well, but that was a bloodbath. Alcharez, though, beats a fool in straight sets, Walt first set the farrier, and then ended up burying him in the last three sets. So look, I think Yibing is a talented player. I like him. They played one time in Shanghai two years ago. Alcharez beat him to nothing.

18:58There was a tiebreaker in there, but Alcharez never faced a break point in the entire match. So look, Alcharez was bad to start against Faria. Faria also can serve it at like 140, so that's kind of tough to deal with initially. But I think Alcharez rolls. The fact is Alcharez at some point after the first set, flipped the switch and just decided to take the racket out of Faria's hands, and to just absolutely beat him over the head with it. And I think you're going to see a pretty similar performance from Alcharez here. The fact is he looked good against the fool in, not amazing, but first match in a couple of months. He passed the test in straight sets. Faria want to set. I know he's been in good form recently, and Alcharez eventually bagged them in the second set. So I think Alcharez, if he's on, should win three nothing. Yibing has played well. I'm not going to ignore that, but I do think Alcharez in general. If he plays the way that he did in the last three sets against Faria, he should win comfortably. I'll go Alcharez three nothing as my thoughts for this one.

20:01I think he ends up winning in pretty convincing fashion. Maybe a tiebreaker or six four in there, but Alcharez at the end of the day is just the much better player. And he looked like it against Faria in the last round. I think go in three nothing as my thoughts for that one. Moving on to the next matchup, you have Michelson taking on Marita. Now Michelson's minus 156, Marita's plus 141. The overrunder is at 38.5 games. For the spread, minus 2.5 from Michelson, plus 2.5 from Marita, the set spread though, is plus 1.5 from Marita, minus 143. The minus 1.5 sets is plus 127 from Michelson, and the over 3.5 sets is minus 210. Rematch that we ended up seeing in Cincinnati, and we saw a pretty lopsided match in favor of Marita. They played earlier this year in Indian Wells, and Michelson dominated one in straight sets. Fisive and Montreal, not Cincinnati, so it wasn't Montreal. And Marita won in three. However, very misleading, he served four of the match in the second set. He blew it one in three, six, one.

21:01But he easily could have won like six, four, six, four. Like the match was pretty lopsided, and Michelson stole a set. But Marita looks really good. So far in the event, beat Rublev in four. I was there. I mean, he looked really, really good. And Fuxelvix he destroyed, which was a buy, because Fuxelvix just dropped that Winston-Sanglet. So he was not in good form, a health wise, but a nice easy win for Marita. Also in general, a solid summer on hardcore for Marita. For Michelson though, he beat Cena. In straight sets means nothing to me. And then he destroyed Nakashima. And Nakashima we know was in great form. Made the final in Montreal. And we saw him make a deep run in the event afterwards. So overall, he was in great form. And Michelson destroyed him. Like it wasn't even close. In fact, every single set was a six, four, or six, three. So it was definitely a very ugly match for Nakashima. Then again, we also know Nakashima doesn't like to rally. He's got a better adip that's definitely his Achilles heel. So I can see Marita giving Michelson a problem in this one.

22:05We just saw him give him a problem in Montreal about a month ago. Now I tweeted this out as the odds dropped. So spoiler, if you already read my tweet, I could not believe Michelson opened up at minus 220. I could not even fathom that price. I didn't get it. It was a complete overreaction about beating Nakashima. But Marita is a very, very good player. I think he might be future top 10. I think his upside is clearly higher than Michelson's. And I think that he's definitely a guy who should be in the top 15 within the next year or two. He won a clay title in Uemog. Michelson's never won a title before. So I do think Marita is the better player. I could not believe Michelson was minus 220. And I could not believe Marita was plus 175. Now the market reacted accordingly, because we ended up seeing Marita move down to 141. And full disclosure, knock on wood, I have a long shot parlay at around 21 to 1.

23:07And the final leg is Marita Monty-Lon. So I'm already priced in on Marita. Like I am already invested in Marita. Hopefully it's the job done. 21 to 1 hopefully closes me out. But I do think that at the end of the day, the better player is the dog here. Yes, Michelson was really, really good at Nakashima. Do I think he should be lying 170? No, I don't. I are 156. I see 170 in a couple of spots. I think that Marita is the more talented player. And we saw in the meeting in Montreal, Michelson's second serve was absolute fish food for Marita. Michelson only won 34% of a second serve points in that match. And by comparison, Marita faced six break points. Michelson faced 12. So I think Marita can actually give Michelson serious problems here. I like the dog. I think 140 still a good price.

24:07I would argue after watching that match in Montreal, that it should be like a minus 110 a piece. I don't see much separating these guys. And I think that Marita is arguably the better player. So I'm going with Marita Moneyline at plus 141, as my thoughts on this one. Moving on to the next matchup, you have a battle of Argentinian clay experts. You have that Chavari taking on Navone. Navone is minus 111. At Chavari's plus 101, and the over under is at about 39 for the spread minus half a game for Navone plus half a game for at Chavari. Now at Chavari looked good against Fernley. Now, Fernley's not exactly an amazing player, mainly a challenger guy, but still, you know what a win's a win and he did win in four. Now, Navone, AB, Jokovic, and Baratini, so a nice run by him, had a pretty decent hard court season so far, so good for him there. Now, for the head Ted, they have played two times on clay. They are dated though, they have not played in basically four years, and at Chavari won all four sets. Now, look, this is a pure coin flip for me.

25:09I get the argument for Navone because a Navone is beaten to good hard court players. Both guys, though, it's of injury issues. I mean, Jokovic completely ran into gas, and he was puking, clearly didn't have it, and I watched the match with Baratini, and Baratini was wincing, we know he's always injured, not a shock there for Baratini. So, look, at Chavari has a very good forehand. His serve is better than Navone's, but I do see a long match breaking out, and I do think with both guys being so sharp on clay, the fact that at Chavari's 2-0 against him tells me that at Chavari does have a bit more firepower, and I think we'll be able to win. But Navone being a favorite on hard court, I just can't do. Even if you like Navone, he's an adolix body in Baratini, he'd be Baratini a couple of weeks prior, so I'm not shocked at Navone won that one. The Joker is a complete shocker, but still, minus 1-11, like, I can't lay that. There's no chance I bet this match, full disclosure. But I'll take the plus money on at Chavari.

26:11Like, I think it's a coin flip, giving plus money, I guess, but no interest at all, in whatever this clay matchup is in a US Open 3rd round, I'll go at Chavari a plus money, as my thoughts for that one. I'm moving on to the next matchup, going to jump around a little bit, a Yovl Heshka taking on Siti Paz. So for this one, Lashka's minus 175, Siti Paz is plus 158, over under is at 40, a 4-0 minus 3 for Lashka, plus 3 for Siti Paz for the sets for red though. Lashka minus 1-0, as a plus 1 or 9, actually, Siti Paz plus 1-0, Siti Paz is minus 122. They played before, and Lashka's been pretty good against Siti Paz. They played in Antwerp two years ago, and we saw Lashka win two-nothing. Inean Wells two years ago, Lashka won two-nothing. All is the Open 3 years ago, Siti Paz won three-nothing, Rotterdam four years ago, Siti Paz did win in three. So, look, Lashka's been good so far in the event. He destroyed Samuel and he beat Gustav in four.

27:11So he's been in good form so far in the event. Siti Paz was being good, beat fees and a shocking upset there. He was down a set, thought he'd roll over and he did not, and then he beat Harrison four. Now, the common theme though, is that Siti Paz has lost the first set in both matches so far in this one. So I don't mind Lashka to win the first set in the match, actually. I like the over in this one. I think both guys can serve well. Lashka is a very underrated server. But no, Siti Paz is not generally a good returner. And I think we're gonna see a bit of a marathon here. I mean, look, you're looking at both guys who've served well. Siti Paz is winning roughly 80% for serve points. Lashka's around 77%. I see a close match up here. I think Lashka wins and both players win a set. So that would be my angle for this one. But I like the over. I see a close match up thing. We got a breaker in there, followed by four or five sets. It wouldn't shock me if we saw Stephanie was actually win this match. But I'll go Lashka. I just trust him a bit more.

28:12But for the actual pricing, if you wanna reduce the money line juice, at like minus 190, you can get Lashka to win and both players to win a set. And that is available, sorry, trying to find that right now. That's available at plus 154. Good enough for me. I'll grab that. I'm moving on to the next match. Do you wanna jump days here? I'll actually do a couple. We're missing some lines on the Saturday matches. So I'll probably do like a scarce amount of those, but we'll do a decent amount for the Friday card and call it even. Moving on to Vaturo, taking on Tiyafo, for the pricing on this one. So look, Tiyafo's a favorite, not a surprise. I mean, Tiyafo had a great performance against Sakamoto and straight sets. For this one though, he's minus 191. Vaturo plus 172 for the over under, I see 39 1 1 1 1 1 1 or 40, Game spread minus 3 for Tiyafo plus 3 for Vaturo, set spread you a minus 1 1 1 1 for Tiyafo plus money,

29:12plus 1 1 1 1 for Vaturo at minus 120. Vaturo's been good. I mean, he was really bad for him for the last couple of months. Showed up here, beat COVID-19 and beat my chick in for there. Atiyafo though, beat damn in five and beat Sakamoto in three. So for this one, I like the over. I'm not gonna really think too much about it. I think Tiyafo wins, but I do think Vaturo, if damn could take two sets off Tiyafo, why can't Vaturo? Similar stylistically, I think you're gonna see a lot of solid serving from both guys. But Vaturo, I think, can do some damage here. I'll go Tiyafo in four, but I do think we'll get a bit of a lengthy match here with tie breaks involved. So I'm gonna go for the over, 39 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1. For this one, and that's available at about minus 121. Moving on to Shelton, taking on Shapo. Shalton minus 350 give or take. Shapo's around plus 311. For the over under, I do see 39. Set spread, Shelton minus 1 1 F sets as a minus 163. Shapo plus 1 F sets as plus 144.

30:13The over 3 1 F sets minus 174. For the game spread, minus 4 1 1 1 2 for Shelton, plus 4 1 1 1 1 2 for Shapo. Juice though minus 136 for the Shelton side. So for the head to history, they have played before. They played in Dallas this year when three sets. In Shanghai, two years ago, Shelton won two nothing, and in Wimbleton, two years ago, Shelton did win in three. Now, Shapo has had a pretty interesting path so far, Bkick Manomachin for, and beat Vanossh in straight sets. Now, Shelton beat her catchin' for, and Greaks for in four. So Shelton has been vulnerable against good servers, and we know that Shapo's lefty serve can be very trick-and-a-deal with. So for me and my thoughts are simple, I think Shelton wins. However, I will give Shapo one set. I'll be generous. I mean, he dropped a set to Greaks for for Christ's sake. Like, I think you're looking at a spot where Shelton should win. But I think Shapo can do enough to force a breaker, maybe steal one, and I think you're looking

31:13at a spot where Shapo can definitely keep this match competitive. He has done so historically speaking. So for me and my thoughts are pretty simple. I'll go with Shelton to win, and both players to win a set, but you can find a plus 136. If you want the exact outcome there, set betting Shelton in four is plus 250, which I like. I think I'll win in four in this one. I'm moving on to the matches on Saturday. We do have some limited lines, so apologies there. So looking at the first matchup, we have TN taking on Mensik. TN minus 176, you're Mensik a plus 138. For the spread, I see TN is available at about a minus 4.5, plus 120, you find 3.5 at around minus 110. And Mensik plus 3.5 is minus 130. The over under is at about, I see, give or take 35.5, 36.5. If you want, actually no. For the actual juice being, I'd say non-existent, you can get 39.5 at minus 110 on the over.

32:16They played before, it was in a next gen match, so it was first to four in each set. But TN did win in five, and that was a marathon. So there we go. Now TN's been good, killed on fee and straight sets, and beat Borgis and straight sets. Mensik beat a rodeo in oven four, and beat Moshezuki in straight sets. For this one, look, I think TN's gonna win. I think TN's more reliable than Mensik. I do not have a price on it, but I like TN to win and both players to win a set. Mensik, despite beating Roneo, who's mainly a challenger, is really not that great against lefties. So I see a good matchup for TN. I think a wayer down Mensik. I'll go TN in, I'll go four, as my thoughts in this one. I'm moving on to the next matchup. I'll probably do one more, because I'm missing a lot of lines for this day. So I'm gonna go with a Fritz taking on Serundalo in this one. Fritz mass of favorite minus 5.75, Serundalo is plus 391. A four of the pricing here, though, for the spread, you'll minus five and a half for Fritz plus five and a half for Serundalo, and it's the same price

33:18on both sides. Over under, I see it available at about 38 1,5, 39 1 1, so shop around there. Fritz, though, we saw only those two games to Baluchi into the last round. He killed them, but that was a blood bath, and we ended up seeing a big blanche in straight sets. As for Serundalo, you beat Missaluch in straight sets and beat Shroof in five. Shroof had an injury time out in there, a bit fortunate that he got injured, because Serundalo did end up winning the last two sets handily. He was in trouble. They combined for 29 double faults in that five set match, but he was fortunate that Shroof's body fell apart again and he ended up winning. So look, if Fritz plays as well as he did in the match against Baluchi, go in comfortably. Fritz played out of his mind in that match. If two current meetings both on Clay, Fritz won in Madrid two years ago in three and Serundalo beat him in the French open three years ago in four. They've never played on hard court before.

34:18Look, Fritz is better. I get that Serundalo when he's on has a forehand that can take over a match, but I don't trust him at all. 13 double faults is not great, and he was fortunate that Shroof fell apart physically because he was down to one. So I don't mind Fritz three nothing actually at plus 150. I think he wins pretty comfortably. I think Serundalo is a guy who still is not a great server. He did win a grass title since then he's been horrible. So I'll go Fritz three nothing at plus 150 as my thoughts for this one. Gonna wrap it up though for the match. I'm gonna break down for the third round. Apologies, but I'm missing a lot of lines of for the Saturday matches. I'm gonna avoid those and move on into the lock and dog picks. Forging into the lock and dog around the brought to by a sponsor. So check out Calche fun fact by the way when I was at the US open. Pretty much every match I went to, there was a Calche sponsor next to the court. So yeah, right on cue there, they are all over the US open. But a reminder, you can trade spreads, money ones, totals and futures much more on Calche,

35:19including the US open stuff if you want to. Also Calche is great prices for college and pro football and trade 25 bucks to 25 over on Calche. If you use promo code S to BN, you got Calche promo code SGPN. We're also brought to by Circo. They're giving away at least $300 in prizes. For this year's handicap in contest, check it out in Nevada, play from anywhere. If you're gonna play outside in Nevada, though you'll need a proxy. So you're gonna football contest like Commis code SPN. For the record, I did sign up for the millions contest and I am using footballcontas.com. So I'm using it so you should too. But check out the code SPN for get 50 bucks off your proxy fees. Check out football contest like Commis promo code SGPN. Welcome back everyone to the tennis game podcast. Finish going through the program preview of the US open. Time to move on into the lock and dog picks. For the lock and dog, of course, I skipped over a couple of matches that I was gonna save for later, a very good match on Friday. It's Bublick and Paul, a rematch a last year,

36:19Bublick one and five. And you know what, Paul's favorite, I'm going Bublick plus one and a half sets at minus 130. As my lock for the show, Bublick won last year in once again, five sets. I like how he played overall. I think in general, Bublick, I know he was in better form last year than he was this year, but he's looked great so far in the event. Yes, he ended up dropping a set to Wolf. He was up to nothing already. He lost five games to Manorino. The match as a whole took about an hour and 20. Like it was ugly and it was over early. And Paul by comparison, had a bit of a war. He lost the first set to Wong in the first round and he lost at the Prismatch in the second round. Even the fourth set was close in that one. That was a 75 in the fourth set. So Paul in general had an absolute war and that took three plus hours. So I do think that Bublick in general had a very easy buy basically in the last round.

37:19Paul though entering the event wasn't in great form. Sorry, it was 75 Prismatch in the third, 64 Paul in the fourth. But either way though, Paul only won 44% of a second serve points in that match. And I think Bublick in general, with the way that he's playing, I think he definitely can win this outright. I mean, looking at the numbers here, he's done significantly more damage with his first serve by comparison to Paul. So Bublick's landing roughly 5% more for serve points, while winning roughly 5% more for serve points. So I think Bublick's first serve might determine the entire match. They played last year and Paul did win both tie breaks. So Bublick sets that he won, were pretty lopsided. And he's served out of his mind in that match. I don't think he got broken in that entire match. So I think Bublick in general proved last year, he can be Paul in these courts. And I like I always play it by comparison to Paul. I'll go Bublick plus 1.5 sets and minus 130 as my lock for the show.

38:20For the dog, I'm gonna go to the Caboli match. Yes, I do like Marita, but not gonna wood. I have an apparlay already. I'm not gonna try to add to it, why not? I like Marita too. I'll be a bit different though. I'll go for Caboli to beat blocks and both players to win a set at plus 128. I do wanna point out though, this was not available on Fandall yet, so I had to build it myself, courtesy of an SGP build, but it should be a better price, once Fandall posts it, but I'll do it now. So Caboli, we know it's top 10 in the world, he's lost a set in each of the first two rounds minimum. Law set the school Kate and two sets to come as Sonya. However, not a surprise, because Caboli, even though it was number six in the world, never wins in straight sets. Caboli's lost at least one set in 17 of his last 18 matches. That's not a typo. I counted it multiple times. He's lost at least one set in 17 of his last 18 matches. The guy never wins in straight sets. Now they played it since an anti-couple weeks ago,

39:22blocks choked badly, but Caboli did end up winning in three. And the fact is, Caboli in general is, of course, better player based on the actual, I'd say ranking and based on the skill. I mean, Caboli made a final in the French open. We saw him, of course, make a deep run in multiple ATP events before. He's won a couple of ATP titles. And the fact is, I do think the fact that he's beaten him in a war tells me that he's not gonna be intimidated by blocks as the match goes on. It's a very cheap money line. So I get people are gonna jump on blocks here. It's a bit trappy. But Caboli also has been very good to late in these long matches. It's why he usually punts the first set. He's won three to last four fifth sets that he's been in, including the first round against Comasagna, which he won. The one who lost though was against Veriv in the French open final. So no shame in that. But Caboli's been good in the fifth set recently. Blocks though has never even played it in a fifth set before.

40:24So I can see a marathon where maybe it goes five, but Caboli's been there done that before. Blocks has had moments of choking before in the past. And then we saw him against Von Osh, where he totally fell apart in that match in a story in the third set. So I've seen Blocks implode before. I mean, so far in the event, both guys have faced pretty weak competition. Like Trunga Lee is not exactly great. And that went to four sets. I understand both guys can be volatile. I trust Caboli more if it's gonna be a marathon. But the fact that Caboli is minus 120 to win to win. And he drops a set minimum in every match he plays. Give me an extra 48 cents by throwing in Blocks to just win a set. I think it's a good price. I'll go for this my dog for this one. So once again, my lock and dog for the episode, Blocks gonna be on Bublik plus one net set against Paul at minus 130. For the dog, give me Caboli to win and Blocks to win a set. So both players to win a set and Caboli to win at plus 128 as my dog for the show.

41:24Gonna wrap it up though. Back once again, for the fourth round of the US Open. Till next time, sport the show, like subscribe on YouTube, leave a rating interview on Spotify, Rapple, also find me on Twitter, right show, radio. Till next time, good old tall of you and all of your bets. Bye everyone.